The New Year's Monster Snowstorm of 1999
The northern hemispheric longwave pattern began the year in transition as a high zonal index hinted at major changes to the longwave pattern over the New Year's Day weekend. Forecasters saw the potential for a major storm and issued a Winter Storm Outlook Storm Outlook on December 31st.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
310 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...
A WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WITH THE STORM
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH TRAVEL LIKELY SEVERLY HAMPERED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEW YEARS DAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST PATH OF THIS STORM...ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE AND THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THIS STORM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. ADDITIONALLY...
COLD AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND THIS STORM ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
THE FINAL STORM TRACK WILL VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...
HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THIS POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER
STORM AS TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND
FORECASTS.
TEH
Two potent shortwaves...one associated with the northern branch of the jet stream and the other associated with the southern branch...were progged to phase together over the central plains on the 2nd of January as Winter Storm Watches were hoisted across much of the midwest.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
515 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN INDIANA ON SATURDAY
EVENING. IF THE STORM EVOLVES AS EXPECTED HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.
PEOPLE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS THE STORM APPROACHES. IT WOULD BE WISE AT THIS TIME TO
PREPARE BOTH YOUR HOME AND AUTOMOBILE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.
MIZ077>081-DDHHMM-
BERRIEN-BRANCH-CASS MI-HILLSDALE-ST JOSEPH MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENTON HARBOR...COLDWATER...DOWAGIAC...
HILLSDALE...STURGIS
515 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY DURING THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6
OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
$$
INZ003>005-012-014-DDHHMM-
ELKHART-LAPORTE-MARSHALL-ST JOSEPH IN-STARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...KNOX...MICHIGAN CITY...
PLYMOUTH...SOUTH BEND
515 PM EST (415 PM CST) THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SNOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
$$
INZ006>009-016-017-DDHHMM-
DEKALB-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-NOBLE-STEUBEN-WHITLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...AUBURN...COLUMBIA CITY...
KENDALLVILLE...LAGRANGE...WARSAW
515 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SNOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE
LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING ONE FOOT
POSSIBLE.
$$
INZ013-015-020-022>024-DDHHMM-
CASS IN-FULTON IN-MIAMI-PULASKI-WABASH-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOGANSPORT...MONTICELLO...PERU...
ROCHESTER...WABASH...WINAMAC
515 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SNOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING ONE FOOT POSSIBLE.
$$
INZ018-025>027-032>034-DDHHMM-
ADAMS-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD-GRANT-HUNTINGTON-JAY-WELLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLUFFTON...DECATUR...FORT WAYNE...
HARTFORD CITY...HUNTINGTON...MARION...PORTLAND
515 PM EST THU DEC 31 1998
...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SNOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH UP TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.
$$
DJT
Lee troughing developed during the day on the 1st with the eventual surface low developing across the Texas panhandle that afternoon. Forecasters were quick to issue Winter Storm Warnings as tremendous moisture was advected off the Gulf of America during the afternoon of the 1st as the low deepened. Severe thunderstorms erupted along the advancing cold front through the deep south while moderate to heavy snow broke out across the midwest.
On the 2nd of January...intense low pressure was located over northeast Arkansas and slowly moved north-northeast into northwest Indiana by late evening. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour were common throughout the day with even heavier snow noted as the surface/mid and upper level systems wrapped up and became closed off over northern Illinois that evening. Nearly all the snowfall across northern Indiana...southern Michigan and northwest Ohio was due to the tremendous warm advection that occured on the nose of a 75 knot low level jet overtop the shallow cold dome that was in place. Precipitation in areas along and east of a Lafayette Indiana to Defiance Ohio line eventually changed over to freezing rain and sleet as 850 millibar temperatures warmed to above freezing. Snowfall amounts were the highest observed since the Blizzard of 1978 in many areas. Several cooperative observer stations reported all-time record 24 hour snowfalls as well. Storm snowfall totals ranged from in 18-24+ across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan...12 to 18 across north central Indiana into south central Michigan and extreme northwest Ohio...and 6 to 8 inches from central Indiana into western Ohio, where significant sleet and freezing rain later fell on top of the heavy snow.
Impacts on the people across the area were significant. Most rural roads remained impassable for several days. Schools and some business were closed for up to two weeks after the snowstorm. Many buildings...especially manufacturing warehouses and large retail stores in the areas that received the heavier snow...reported collapsed roofs due to the enormous weight of the snow. A truely remarkable snowstorm and one for the history books.
This story written and compiled by Todd Holsten
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