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Storm Moving through the South; Pacific Storm to Impact the West this Weekend

A storm is expected to develop over the southern High Plains today and track to the Mid-Atlantic through Friday with showers and thunderstorms. On the northern edge, snow, ice, and/or a wintry mix is possible over the central Plains. A significant storm is expected to arrive late Friday through the weekend with rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds for much of the West. Read More >

Overview

Synoptic conditions on September 22, 2005
A low amplitude mid level shortwave trough was moving ENE through the Great Lakes into southern Canada. The attendant surface cold front moved slowly southeast through the  CWA (County Warning Area) in the late afternoon and evening. A weak pre-frontal trough also moved southeast across the CWA just ahead of the cold front, but no significant convection ever developed on this feature due to strong capping over the warm sector. Morning debris clouds quickly gave way to sunshine and the atmosphere quickly destabilized with surface based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) reaching around 3000 J/kg just ahead of the cold front. Deep layer wind shear was sufficient for storm organization with 0-6km environmental shear on the order of 40 to 45 knots. Model performance was good with NAM and GFS models in good agreement on the timing, placement, and amplitude of the large scale weather features.
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