National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Mesoscale Forecast Model (WRF) 

6 km ARW outer domain. Select Current Run Loop:



2 km ARW inner domain, high resolution.



Soundings (Skew T diagram) based upon 6 km ARW. Select Loop:



Note: The mesoscale prognostics depicted on these pages may not be  available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Mesoscale forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases. These versions of the WRF model are greatly influenced by the RAP initial conditions, and the quality of the NMM model that provides the boundary conditions.

Model overview:  The 6km and 2km runs are from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model utilizing the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS, Version 3.4). The specific model core used for these simulations is the Advanced Research WRF (ARW). This configuration is set up as a 2-way nest with a 6km outer domain covering much of the state and a 2km resolution inner domain covering east central Florida. Both runs have 45 vertical levels. The outer domain encompasses a grid of 190 by 142, while the inner grid is 217 by 199. The models run with no cumulus parameterization, so that convection is explicit. When available, the WRF will be run 8 times a day at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, and 21 UTC. The model does not start until about 3 hours past the start time in order to acquire all initial and boundary conditions. The model run and post-processing require about 60 minutes to complete. Therefore model output should be available around 2  hour and 30 minutes after the initial time. The runs generate forecasts out to 48 hours for the outer domain, and 27 hours for the inner 2km domain.  This version of the WRF-ARW uses the Rapid Refresh model (RAP) to initialize the model (hot start). The RAP generates analyses that combine in situ and remote data sets to depict the current state of the atmosphere. High resolution MODIS satellite data is used to depict the sea surface temperatures within the initial conditions of the model. A high resolution Land Information System (LIS) is also used for initial conditions. Lateral boundary conditions are provided by the 12km North American Mesoscale model (NAM).

For more information about the WRF mesoscale forecast model contact Pete Blottman or Matt Volkmer

If you have questions about local modeling efforts at WFO Melbourne contact Dave Sharp