Hurricane Erin may bring isolated flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, and possible tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may bring areas of flooding this weekend over the Upper Midwest. A tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and mainly urban flash flooding to far southern Texas. Read More >
Overview
On the morning of December 31, 2006 low pressure was located over south-central Iowa, which deepened over the next 12 hours and moved northeast into Wisconsin. Heavy snow fell in the afternoon from Cambridge through the western suburbs of the Twin Cities, as well as to Fairmont and Blue Earth. Snowfall rates were up to 2 inches per hour and total snowfall was 8-10 inches from the western suburbs of the Twin Cities through Mankato and Blue Earth. Snowfall decreased by early evening over eastern Minnesota.Snowfall Totals
Total snowfall ranged from 8-10 inches from the western suburbs of the Twin Cities through Blue Earth.
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Radar:
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| 6 hr precip forecast from Dec 31 12Z NAM run | Reflectivity at 16:06Z on Dec 31 | Reflectivity at 18:03Z on Dec 31 | Reflectivity at 20:04Z on Dec 31 |
Environment
An area of low pressure was located over south-central Iowa at 12Z, which then deepened over the next 12 hours and moved northeast into Wisconsin. The region that received the heaviest snowfall was between the left exit region of a 250 mb jet in Illinois and the right entrance region of a 250 mb jet north of Minnesota. The December 31 12Z NAM run showed significant forcing and instability over south-central Minnesota. Also, the 12Z sounding showed a high precipitable water value and deep southerly flow, which provided ideal conditions for snowfall. The 0Z sounding showed a lower temperature profile and wind shift after the low had passed.
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| Mean Sea Level Pressure (mb) at 12Z | MSLP (mb) at 15Z | MSLP (mb) at 18Z |
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| MSLP (mb) at 21Z | MPX 12Z sounding | MPX 0Z sounding |
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| NAM differential layer divergence at 21Z | Satellite imagery showing deformation zone at 20:45Z |
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