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Overview -  Atmospheric River - February 3-5, 2024

Heavy Rains and Damaging Winds Impacted the Bay Area and the Central Coast

                                                     

 

Event Highlights            

  • Bomb Cyclone status verified 
  • Peak Wind Gust of 102 mph!
  • NWS Bay Area first ever Hurricane Force Warning issued over the coastal waters.
  • Storm Prediction Center - rare Tornado Probability  2%
  • Weather Prediction Center - Moderate Risk for flooding

 

Zonal flow across the Pacific became highly amplified leading to explosive cyclogenesis February 3-5, 2024.  Rapidly deepening low pressure systems off the West Coast are not that uncommon during the winter months.  In fact,  this low pressure system deepened enough in 24 hours to reach "bomb cyclone" status (see below for details). What else sets this low pressure system apart from past bomb cyclones was the southern extent latitude wise it deepened.  The last time a low pressure near 980 mb developed off the Bay Area coast was January 2010.  As the low pressure system moved eastward it developed characteristics of a "sting jet" on the SW side. Uncertain if a true sting jet developed, but regardless damaging winds impacted the region. These strong winds first materialized along the Big Sur Coast with gusts of 80-90 mph before spreading to the Santa Cruz Mountains next and lastly to the North Bay Mountains.  Peak wind observed was 102 mph at a mesonet station in the North Bay Coastal Mountains. These strong winds led to numerous downed trees and widespread power outages.  One utility company shared it was one of the top three most damaging, single-day storms on record, only comparable to storms in 1995 and 2008. Overall, more than one million customers lost power at some point during the storm.  This event will clearly be remembered for the wind impacts, but it did also rain.  The deep low pressure was able to tap into subtropical moisture and aim it at the coast as an Atmospheric River. Intense rainfall quickly overwhelmed some creeks and streams leading to minor flooding.  Thankfully, the large rivers were able to accommodate the rain. 

            

Bomb Cyclone Stats:

Minimum central pressure of cyclone was 978mb (see below). Total pressure drop was 30mb in 33 hours with a maximum pressure drop 22mb in 24 hours (1.3 Bergeron when adjusted for latitude).

            

Verification of the Bomb Cyclone (definition here). 

Map showing surface analysis over the eastern Pacific from Ocean Prediction Center Map showing surface analysis over the eastern Pacific from Weather Prediction Center
Map showing surface analysis over the Eastern Pacific from Ocean Prediction Center. Lowest pressure 978 mb. Map showing surface analysis over the eastern Pacific from Weather Prediction Center
            
            

Satellite loop
            Satellite loop showing the evolution of the Atmospheric River impacting the Bay Area and Central Coast.
 

Radar Loop showing full scope of Atmospheric River.           
            

Amazing Satellite loop over two week period showing two Atmospheric Rivers impacting the West Coast.            

            

Flooding and Heavy Rain

Ample moisture streaming in from the tropics combined with orographic lifting led to a period of moderate to heavy rainfall.  The more intense period of rainfall quickly overwhelmed smaller watersheds leading to flooding of some creeks/stream.  Given the saturated soils landslides occurred as well.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Flood Watch Flash Flood Watch
            

Weather Prediction Center -

Excessive Rainfall Outlook showing a Moderate Risk  of flash flooding

            

Given already saturated soils a Flood Watch was issued leading up to the event.

            
            

With the possibility of high rainfall rate a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the River Burn Area. 

            
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Rainfall Amounts  
One of many Flood Advisories issued due to minor flooding.  Rainfall amounts from Feb 3 - Feb 5.  


Local Storm Report - Flood and Landslide

                                        
            
            
..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     Flood            2 SSW Live Oak          36.96N 121.99W
02/04/2024                   PZZ535             CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding near E Cliff Dr. / 9th Ave, 
            expect some closures. 

1100 AM     Flood            1 WSW Forestville       38.48N 122.91W
02/04/2024                   Sonoma             CA   Emergency Mngr   

            Green Valley Creek at Martinelli Road has 
            gone outside its boundaries and causing 
            flooding. Per Sonoma Co DEM. Time is 
            approximate. 

0935 AM     Flood            3 SSW San Jose          37.27N 121.86W
02/04/2024                   Santa Clara        CA   Law Enforcement  

            Lane #3 completely flooded along SR 87 NB. 

0428 PM     Flood            3 ENE Santa Clara       37.38N 121.91W
02/04/2024                   Santa Clara        CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding near Junction Ave. 

1014 PM     Flood            355 Convention Way      37.50N 122.23W
02/03/2024                   San Mateo          CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding. 

0841 PM     Flood            2 S Colma               37.65N 122.45W
02/04/2024                   San Mateo          CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding near I280 S/Westborough 
            Blvd Ofr. 

0941 PM     Flood            I280S/Cesar Chavez St W 37.75N 122.39W
02/03/2024                   San Francisco      CA   Law Enforcement  

            6 inches of standing water in slow lane. 

0417 PM     Flood            6 SE Hollister          36.79N 121.32W
02/04/2024                   San Benito         CA   Law Enforcement  

            Creek is running over into the road near 
            Southside Rd/Sr25. 

0842 PM     Flood            US 101N/Hartnell Rd     36.63N 121.58W
02/03/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            101 N from Hartnell Rd to Alisal Rd closed 
            due to flooding. 

1057 AM     Flood            4 SE Greenfield         36.29N 121.19W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Flooding in the low section of SB 101 across 
            lane #2. 

1145 AM     Flood            2 WNW Carmel Valley Vil 36.50N 121.75W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Live Oak Ln - Roadway under water. 

0138 PM     Flood            1 SSW Salinas           36.67N 121.64W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Lanes closed due to flooding near W Carmel 
            Valley road. 

0912 PM     Flood            1 E Monterey            36.60N 121.87W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding under overpass near Fremont 
            St. 

1201 AM     Flood            53 San Clemente Dr      37.93N 122.51W
02/04/2024                   Marin              CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding. 

0331 AM     Flood            NB 101/Francisco Blvd O 37.96N 122.51W
02/04/2024                   Marin              CA   Law Enforcement  

            Large amount of water in the #2 lane. 

1119 PM     Flood            2434 Whipple Rd         37.61N 122.06W
02/03/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding SB 238 lane #3. 

1122 PM     Flood            4999 Gleason Dr         37.72N 121.88W
02/03/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding. 

1127 PM     Flood            SB 680 to EB 580 connec 37.71N 121.91W
02/03/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            All lanes starting to flood. 

1217 AM     Flood            I238 S/Hesperian Blvd O 37.69N 122.13W
02/04/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            Slow lane flooded. 

0116 AM     Flood            3601 Telegraph Ave      37.83N 122.27W
02/04/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            Roadway flooding EB 80 just west of hilltop. 

0132 AM     Flood            SB 680 to EB 580 connec 37.70N 121.92W
02/04/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            #2 lane flooded, #1 lane half flooded. 

0344 AM     Flood            I880S/High St offramp   37.78N 122.23W
02/04/2024                   Alameda            CA   Law Enforcement  

            Flooding across all lanes. 

0819 PM     Landslide        1500 Trinity Rd         38.40N 122.48W
02/04/2024                   Sonoma             CA   Law Enforcement  

            Rockslide blocking EB lane, several branches 
            2 inches in diameter blocking WB lane. 

0906 PM     Landslide        SR128/Hogwarts Way      38.83N 123.04W
02/04/2024                   Sonoma             CA   Law Enforcement  

            Slide blocking EB lanes. 

0623 PM     Landslide        3 NE Santa Rosa         38.48N 122.66W
02/05/2024                   Sonoma             CA   Law Enforcement  

            Mud slide blocking one lane of traffic near 
            Calistoga Rd and Maria Carrillo High School. 

1042 PM     Landslide        SR128/Lower Chiles Vall 38.51N 122.30W
02/04/2024                   Napa               CA   Law Enforcement  

            Mudslide partially blocking west side of 
            SR128 just west of Lower Chiles Valley Rd by 
            a quarter of a mile. Rocks moved out of the 
            roadway, there is still mud 1 foot past the 
            line of the lane. 

1215 AM     Landslide        NB Silverado Trail/Duna 38.58N 122.55W
02/05/2024                   Napa               CA   Law Enforcement  

            Large mudslide at NB Silverado Trail just 
            south of Dunaweal Lane with a mixture of 
            rock, mud, and bushes blocking one lane. 

0920 AM     Landslide        4 SE Del Monte Forest   36.54N 121.91W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Slide in NB lane. 

1119 AM     Landslide        3 NW Carmel Valley Vill 36.51N 121.77W
02/04/2024                   Monterey           CA   Law Enforcement  

            Tree and slide blocking roadway at Rancho 
            Fiesta Rd/Miramonte Rd. 

&&

$$





            
            

Convective Environment

The intense low pressure along the coast combined with cold air aloft set the stage for a rather unstable environment. It's not uncommon for the Bay Area and Central Coast to be included in a general mention for thunderstorms, but for the Storm Prediction Center to include the Central Coast in a Marginal Risk is more rare.  In fact, SPC even had a 2% chance for tornadoes.  Fortunately, no tornadoes were reported, but funnel clouds and stronger showers were observed.

Storm Prediction Outlook Tornado Threat at 2% for Central Coast Lightning Summary map. 56 cloud to ground strikes.
            

Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms.  Doesn't happen very often.

            
            

Rare tornado threat  included for portions of the Central Coast.

            
            

Lightning summary map.

            
Special Marine Warning Significant Weather Advisory  
            

Intense thunderstorms led to numerous Special Marine Warnings being issued.  Some stronger cells showed signs of rotation/possible waterspouts.

            
            

One of many Special Weather Statements highlighting intense convective showers.

            
            

 

            

                                                                  

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