National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 900 AM EDT Friday May 31 2019 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR June ...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows will average above to isolated much above normal north of the mainstem...watersheds south of the Ohio River flows will average normal to isolated below normal. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flooding potential will be slightly elevated in far northern drainages such as the upper Wabash watershed...Maumee watershed and the Great Lakes drainage near Cleveland. The potential for flooding south of this elevated area is near normal to the mainstem of the Ohio. South of the Ohio River...potential for flooding will be below normal. There is little to no risk for drought in the Ohio Valley. ..................................................................... ...May HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... MCS activity produced significant flooding both along the St Marys River in the Maumee watershed at Decatur, IN as well as the Auglaize River at Ft Jennings also in the Maumee basin. Minor flooding also due to MCSs occurred in the headwaters of the Wabash River both at Lynn Grove and Bluffton. Then...the continuous flooding remains uninterupted along the Wabash River from Lafayette, IN to Mt Carmel, IL. The periphery of the Ohio River Basin (far west and far north) experienced above normal rainfall during May whereas the remainder of the Ohio Valley had slightly below normal rains. http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Near normal soil moisture exists in the watersheds in the Upper Ohio Valley...but moving westward into the lower Ohio Valley soils have an abundance of soil moisture with respect to normal. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml ...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows averaged for May above to much above normal in the Wabash, Whites and Maumee as well as Miami Basin and headwaters of the Scioto River. Elsewhere...streamflows in the Ohio River Basin averaged near normal with isolated pockets of below normal streamflows. http://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... ...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR June... ARCTIC OSCILLATION negative = dry NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION negative = dry PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION neutral = normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION weak El Nino = normal http://www.cpc.noaa.gov ..................................................................... ...Summary... Teleconnections/oscillation signals support dry conditions over most of the Ohio Valley. However...the "ring of fire" will be active leading to MCSs riding the ridge into the northern drainages of the Ohio Valley placing areas north of the mainstem at risk for heavy rainfall totals during June. South of the mainstem...watersheds will be under the influence of a subtropical ridge in the southeastern U.S.A.and as a result will have below normal rainfall totals during June. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ Wheeler