National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 837 AM EST Tuesday January 31 2023 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows are forecast to be normal for the month of February across the Ohio Valley. Signals in the first half of the month are fairly consistent in showing normal, non-anomalous precipitation. The latter half of the month's precipitation looks to possibly pick up and become wetter, but signals are mixed. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Climotologically and compared to the other months during a calendar year, February is one of the wetter months. Therefore, flood potential of some sort is comparatively high for a normal February as called for in today's Water Resources Outlook. Most drought from earlier months has improved significantly and any further drought potential is currently quite low. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... The month of January saw normal to above precipitation for most of the Ohio River forecast basin. Heaviest areas ran through the central basin from southwest to northeast where totals were 125 to 200 percent of normal. Amounts tapered from this axis closer to normal with some small below normal areas (<100%) in the far southeast and northwest corners of the basin. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture, in general measures slightly below normal in Indiana, slightly above normal in the northeast runs of the basin, and pretty much normal everywhere else. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... As of the last day here in January, streamflows throughout the Ohio Valley are more or less normal with little exception. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Starts Negative then Positive = Below then Above Normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Positive = Above Normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Mixed Signal = Neutral ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION La Nina = Above Normal https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Streamflows are forecast to be normal for the month of February across the Ohio Valley. As mentioned in the summary above, signals in the first half of the month are fairly consistent in showing normal, non-anomalous precipitation. Most systems moving through, while fairly widespread seem quite transistory. Snowpack is also pretty low and relatively localized at this time as well, girding against a mass snowmelt driven February event. The latter half of the month's precipitation looks to possibly pick up and become wetter via some of the longer term models, but signals are quite mixed. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$