National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 444 PM EDT Friday March 27 2020 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR APRIL ...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... STREAMFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM CINCINNATI DOWNSTREAM TO SMITHLAND, IL AS WELL AS THE TRIBUTARIES SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM IN KENTUCKY AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER. ALSO NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM...THE LITTLE WABASH WATERSHED AS WELL AS THE LOWER ENDS OF THE EAST FORK OF THE WHITE, WHITE AND WABASH RIVERS WILL HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS TOO. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRIBUTARIES NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM WILL HAVE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS DURING APRIL. ..................................................................... ...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE INTO EARLY APRIL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH. DURING APRIL...THERE WILL BE NO RISK FOR DROUGHT IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. ..................................................................... ...MARCH HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... DURING MARCH...PRECIPITATION WAS 150-300% ABOVE NORMAL. THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING MOSTLY HAVING MINOR IMPACTS BUT ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVING MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR IMPACTS OCCURRED. FLASH FLOODING IN LATE MARCH UNFORTUNATELY LEAD TO SIX DEATHS NEAR LAUREL, INDIANA IN FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... SOILS ARE WET TO VERY WET ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN AND LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE. SOIL CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY IN APRIL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml ...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... FLOWS ARE RUNNING HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH FLOODING AND ACTION STAGES WIDESPREAD STARTING APRIL. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... ...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR APRIL... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION TRENDING NEUTRAL = NORMAL RAINFALL NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TRENDING NEGATIVE = DRIER THAN NORMAL PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION TRENDING NEUTRAL = NORMAL RAINFALL ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION NEAR NORMAL SSTs = NORMAL RAINFALL https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... ...SUMMARY... LATE MARCH STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AS THE CALENDAR TURNS INTO THE MONTH OF APRIL. TELECONNECTIONS POINT TOWARD DRYING CONDITIONS LATER IN APRIL...SO STREAMFLOWS WILL COME DOWN BUT STILL MAY AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ WHEELER