National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1230 PM EST Wednesday November 27 2019 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR December. ...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows are forecast to average near normal with scattered above normal flows in the Cumberland watershed, ..................................................................... ...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential will be near normal which means minor flooding could occur. There is no risk of drought in the Ohio Valley. ..................................................................... ...Hydrometeorological Review for November... Isolated flooding occurred at Clay City, IL on the Little Wabash River and the along the Tiffin River at Stryker, OH. Rainfall for November was 50 to 75 percent of normal. The only above normal precipitation occurred in the Cumberland watershed where rainfall was 125 percent of normal. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soils are normally moist but wet in the Cumberland watershed, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml ...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows predominantly remained within channel during November. Monthly average streamflows were near normal with scattered above and below flows in the Ohio Valley. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... ...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS for December... ARCTIC OSCILLATION trending positive = drier NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION trending positive = wetter PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION neutral = normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION weak El Nino = drier https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... ...Summary... Atmospheric teleconnections are giving conflicting signals...so there is little help here. Predominantly progressive weather systems are expected across the U.S.A producing normal rainfall in the Ohio Valley amd thus leading to mainly normal streamflows. Antecedent conditions are wetter in the Cumberland Basin which could lead to higher than normal streamflows across the extreme southern drainages of the Ohio River Basin. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ wheeler