National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1120 AM EDT Tuesday October 27 2020 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF November .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows for the month of November are forecast to be normal to above normal. The above normal streamflows are forecast where heavier rain fell over the last 30 days. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential will be near normal for the Ohio Valley. Short term drought conditions are expected to lessen across central Indiana, western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... The month of October started as a dry one and finished wet. Over the last 30 days, 5 to 6 inches (150 to 300 percent of normal) fell across northern Kentucky and the Lake Erie shore. Elsewhere, amounts were generally 2 to 4 inches (75 to 125 percent of normal). Since conditions were dry at the start of October, river flooding was not reached with the exception of a couple headwater points. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture across West Virginia, Ohio and most of Indiana are near normal. Across far southern Indiana, soil mositures are in the 70th-80th percentile. Western Pennsylvania and southwest New York are in the 10th-30th percentile. Middle Tennessee and Kentucky soil moistures are in the 80th-90th percentiles. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Current streamflow conditions across southwest New York, southeast Illinois, western Pennsylvania, middle Tennessee, Ohio, central and southern Indiana and Kentucky are generally normal with some scattered areas of above normal. Extreme northern Indiana streamflows are below normal. West Virginia streamflows are generally normal with isolated areas of below normal. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION positive = no correlation NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION positive = no correlation PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION negative = average ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION La Nina = no correlation https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Teleconnections point to near normal conditions across the Ohio Valley for the month of November. With the upcoming rains from the remnants of Hurricane Zeta to end out October, the month will start with above normal stream flows where the heavier rain falls. La Nina conditions are currently present and are forecast to continue into Spring of 2021. This generally means rainfall will be above normal for the Ohio Valley, especially the southern basin. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$