National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 934 AM EST Wednesday December 30 2020 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF January .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... The Ohio River Forecast Center January Outlook is calling for a mix of above normal and near normal conditions for the Ohio Valley. La Nina conditions are beginning to assert themselves more into the current and forecast weather patterns, typically bringing above normal streamflows to many areas of the basin. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... With the Fall dry season (and drought potential) well behind us and the anticipated above normal conditions of wet season beginning, flood potential is elevated for the month of January. Obviously, the severity or degree of any rises are beyond the scope of this outlook. However, it is a pretty good bet that occasional streams or rivers within the Ohio Valley will reach flood stage for the month of January. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Rainfall will end up near normal for much of the Ohio River Basin for the month of December. For much of the month, the vast majority of the western half of the basin was below normal. However, the last few days of December will bring much of this area up to or nearly up to normal levels...save for some scattered areas of western KY which may still be about an inch low by month's end despite the month ending rain. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Like the rainfall departure, the soil moisture will likely be normal to slightly above normal for much of the basin by month's end. This will be in large part to the last few days of the month and its broad, significant recharging rain. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflow conditions will likely end up around normal for the month of December. One exception may be the northwest quarter of the basin which, despite the month-ending rain, may still be a touch below normal (25 to 30th percentile) for a given December. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Negative = Below Normal Precip NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Negative = Below Normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Neutral = Normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Moderate La Nina = Above Normal https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... With the La Nina signal really ramping up at current time, subsequent downstream conditions are really begining to show their effects in the Ohio Valley. That is, above normal precipitation in general in the current conditions and outlooks. Likewise near and mid-term models continue to show a generally active weather pattern as we head into the beginning of January reflecting this as well. Futhermore, the CPC outlook also calls for an above normal January precipitation wise. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$