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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 116 PM EDT Monday September 30 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Above normal streamflows are forecast for southern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, eastern Kentucky and middle Tennessee. Southwest Ohio, southern Indiana, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and southeast Illinios are forecast to be near normal. Below normal stream flows are expected across northen Indiana and northern Ohio. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Extended models are indicating a fairly dry October. This will allow drought to persist across northern West Virginia, northern Ohio, northern Indiana and western Pennsylvania. With the recent rainfall, there is some improvement in the drought across southwest Ohio, far southern Indiana, Kentucky, southern West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. The risk for flooding remains low and will be dependent on any tropical moisture entering the basin. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Remnants of Helene brought heavy rainfall to parts of the Ohio Valley the last week of the month. For the month, the heaviest rains fell across southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Amounts across those areas were 8 to 10 inches (150 to 200 percent of normal) with isolated amounts over 10 inches (200 to 300 percent of normal) were measured. Areas south of the Ohio River received 1.5-6.0 inches (90 to 200 percent of normal). The driest areas were across western Kentucky and southeast Ohio with 1.25-2.0 inches (50-100 percent of normal). North of the Ohio River, 1.5-6.0 inches fell (50 to 110 percent of normal). https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... With the recent rains from Helene, there was overall improvement in soil moisture.The exception was northern Indiana and northern Ohio.Soil moisture conditions remain below normal north of the Ohio River. Soils across eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania remain in the 5th-10th percentile. South of the Ohio River, soils are above normal with the exception of western Kentucky. Where the heaviest rain fell across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and eastern Kentucky, soil moisture is in the 80th-95th percentiles. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflow conditions are generally above normal south of the Ohio River and near normal north of the Ohio River. South of the Ohio River, streamflow conditions are above to much above normal. A few pockets of above to much above normal streamflows can be found across western Ohio and eastern Indiana. North of the Ohio River, stream flows are normal with pockets of below normal to much below normal across western Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and northern Indiana. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR SEPTEMBER... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE Neutral = Near Normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE Negative = No correlation/Near Normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE Positive = Below Normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE Neutral = Near Normal https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Teleconnections point to normal to below normal precipitation for the month of October. Extended models show normal to below normal precipitation for the month. Despite the recent rains from Helene, conditions will remain fairly dry. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$