National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1100 AM EDT Friday September 27 2019 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER ...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... STREAMFLOWS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE DRAINAGES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS WELL AS THE CUMBERLAND WATERSHED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO, KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA LEADING TO STREAMFLOWS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THESE WATERSHEDS. ..................................................................... ...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... FLOOD POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO BE LOW DURING OCTOBER. ON THE OTHER HAND...DROUGHT POTENTIAL WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE IMPROVING LATE IN OCTOBER OR EARLY NOVEMBER. CURRENTLY...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST IN LARGE AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM AND IN SOUTHWEST OHIO. MODERATE TO POTENTIALL ISOLATED SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST OHIO. ..................................................................... ...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR SEPTEMBER... LESS THAN 50 PERCENT NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURRED NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. HERE ARE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SEPTEMBER: LOUISVILLE 0.04 NASHVILLE 0.02 PADUCAH 0.06 JACKSON, KY TRACE CHARLESTON WV 0.49 CINCINNATI 0.61 DAYTON 0.15 INDIANAPOLIS 0.40 https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg ...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... STREAMFLOWS AVERAGED DURING SEPTEMBER BELOW TO MUCH BELOW ACROSS WATERSHEDS IN KENTUCKY, HEADWATRERS OF THE CUMBERLAND, NEW RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS THE KANAWHA BASIN. NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM...FLOWS AVERAGED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD NEAR NORMAL WITH ISOLATED POCKETS BELOW NORMAL. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml ...SOIL CONDITIONS... ABNORMALLY TO EXCESSIVELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY ONLY THE FAR NORTH HAVING NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... ...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR OCTOBER... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS NO CORRELATION DURING AUTUMN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HAS NO CORRELATION DURING AUTUMN PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION HAS NO CORRELATION DURING AUTUMN ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS = NO BIAS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... ... Summary ... Teleconnections provide no guidance during Autumn. Also, SSTs are near normal currently ...so no bias with respect to precipitation. Even though teleconnections are not helpful going forward into October...I am inclined to use persistence since the eastern United States has been stuck under a high amplitude ridge and ;therefore, a strong subtropical high. I anticipate this pattern only to slowly break down during October. My forecast then is for dry conditions to persist in the Ohio Valley for most of October. The dry pattern then is expected to break down later in the month or early November. Ongoing drought conditions will worsen across Kentucky, southwest Ohio, West Virginia as well as the New River Basin in Virginia. As far as tributaries...low flow conditions will occur with some help as reservoirs release water to bring pools down to winter levels. On the mainstem of the Ohio...inflows at Smithland Dam will remain in the 20s cfs during October. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$