National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 419 PM EST Sunday January 28 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... After a wetter January with some mostly minor floods, the weather and climate pattern will return to a warmer and overall drier than normal pattern for February. This will result in streamflows going from slightly above normal in early February to normal or below normal as we move through February. The greatest chance for any above normal precipitation and streamflows appears to be the far southern and eastern Ohio Valley and the greatest chance for below normal streamflows appears to be the northwest Ohio Valley. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... With rainfall recharge going on in recent months, drought will be limited mostly to the western basin. Since it is winter, any individual weather event can still cause some flooding but any flooding looks to be mostly minor in nature for February. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Precipitation for January was generally 3-6 inches which was 0-2 inches above normal. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture has return to near normal in most of the region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows went from below normal to above normal across much of the basin during January. Longer-term streamflows for January averaged near normal across much of the region. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION NEUTRAL = NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION NEUTRAL = NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION NEUTRAL = NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION STRONG EL NINO = BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... The El Nino signature was overridden in January allowing for a burst of wetter conditions and winter to occur. In February, the El Nino signature is set to return forcing slightly above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. This signature will likely last into March as well which is typically our peak flood season. Historically, strong El Nino events that are weakening and ending into spring result in the warmer and drier signal of February and March to give way to some wettness in April and May. This should all yield normal to below normal flood potential in February and into spring with most flooding that does occur being minor in nature with some isolated moderate floods. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ Noel