WSFO

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1119 AM EDT Wednesday April 12 2023 ...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is below normal for the Ohio Valley... ...This is the last Spring Flood Outlook for the season... ...This spring season was considered near nomral as forecast... PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS... In the first week of April, a heavy band of rain fell in southern Illinois/Indiana/Ohio, central Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky. This swath of 2-3 inches of rain was 150-200% of normal in these areas. Following this rain event, the second week of April saw well below normal rainfall. In the past 14 days, northern Illinois/Indiana/Ohio, eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western Kentucky have received only 0.5-1.5 inches of rain, which is 25-75% of normal. For more information please visit: https://water.weather.gov/precip SOIL MOISTURE... Current soil moisture conditions across the region are near normal in most areas, but slightly above normal in the northern Ohio Valley along the Lake Erie shoreline. Portions of northern West Virginia have soils slightly below normal. State rankings: Southeast Illinois - near to slightly above normal Indiana - near to slightly above normal Ohio - near to slightly above normal Western Pennsylvania - near normal West Virginia - near to slightly below normal Kentucky - near normal Tennessee - near normal For more information please visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml USGS STREAMFLOWS... The seven-day streamflows have been near normal across much of the western Ohio Valley. Streamflows are slightly below normal in eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. State rankings: Southeast Illinois - near normal Indiana - near normal Ohio - near to slightly below normal Western Pennsylvania - below normal West Virginia - near to slightly below normal Kentucky - near normal Tennessee - near normal For more information please visit: https://watermonitor.gov RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... Reservoirs in the region are near normal and moving towards summer recreation pool levels. OHIO RIVER FLOWS... The current river flows along the Ohio Rivers indicate below normal flows in the upper end and near normal flows in the lower end. Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal. Pittsburgh - 50% Huntington - 60% Cincinnati - 70% Louisville - 75% Evansville - 110% Smithland - 120% SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK... There currently is no appreciable snow anywhere in the Ohio Valley. For more information please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa ICE COVER... There is currently no ice on rivers in the Ohio Valley. 2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... Overall discussion... The two-week outlook calls for near normal rainfall potential for the Ohio River Valley. Although a wetter trend is expected as multiple low pressure systems are forecast to work their way through the Ohio Valley, they are not forecast to bring substantial rainfall or be hydrologically significant. Instead, these systems should slowly bring streamflows back to near normal conditions across the region by the end of April. OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be below normal along the entire length of the Ohio River. Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and values below 100% being below normal. Pittsburgh - 60% Huntington - 60% Cincinnati - 60% Louisville - 60% Evansville - 70% Smithland - 80% For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Flood risk is defined as follows: Below normal - flooding will be limited Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$