National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 200 PM EST Wednesday January 13 2021 ...Flood Potential is below normal for the Ohio Valley... A below normal flood potential means there is a low risk for minor flooding. If flooding would occur...it would be very isolated and only have minor impacts. ...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/PRECIPITATION... Recent precipitation during the last two weeks has been much below normal. Perecntages are unavailable at this time. Importantly in assessing the flood potential...the precipitation has been 40-60% percent of normal across watersheds in the lower Ohio Valley and middle drainages of the Ohio River Basin. Only in the upper Ohio Valley precipitation has been near normal. ...SOIL MOISTURE... Scale is 0-100%. <30% is below normal. > 70% is above normal. Illinois - 30-70% Indiana - 30-70% except drought conditions in the Tippecanoe basin Ohio - 30-70% except dry conditions in southeast Ohio Western Pennsylvania - 5-30% with driest conditions in southwest PA West Virginia - 30-70% Kentucky - 30-70% with driest conditions in central KY Tennessee - 30-70% ...STREAMFLOWS... Scale is 0-100%. >75% is wet. <25% is dry. Illinois - normal Indiana - normal except in the Tippecanoe basin which is much below normal Ohio - normal Western Pennsylvania - normal West Virginia - normal Kentucky - normal Tennessee - normal ...OHIO RIVER FLOWS... (CURRENT % OF NORMAL) Pittsburgh - 70% Huntington - 75% Cincinnati - 70% Louisville - 65% Evansville - 65% Smithland - 90% ...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS... 1/4 inch in the upper Wabash 1/8 inch in both the Maumee and parts of the Great Lakes 1/2 inch in the upper Allegheny ...ICE COVER... None ...FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... In the near term...the storm track producing significant rainfall will be across the deep South then up the East Coast in western North Atlantic leaving the extreme southern basin on the far northern edge of the precipitation shield and thus only light precipitation. Another storm track moving thru the Ohio Valley could be in northwest flow and thus relatively moisture deprived and producing only light precipitation. During the next two weeks then...precipitation will be below normal leading to a below normal risk for flooding. ...STATE BY STATE FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS... Eastern Illinois - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Indiana - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Ohio - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Western Pennsylvania - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Southwestern New York - low Flood Risk...no Impacts West Virginia - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Western Virginia - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Kentucky - low Flood Risk...no Impacts Tennessee - low Flood Risk...no Impacts ...OHIO RIVER FLOW FORECASTS... Pittsburgh - 70% Huntington - 100% Cincinnati - 105% Louisville - 110% Evansville - 110% Smithland - 100% For the long-range river outlooks and the probability of exceeding flood stage during the next 90-days, refer to https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc and click on an individual forecast point. Select probability information in the upper right-hand corner. Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wfo . Factor considered in assessing flood potnetial include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$ wheeler