WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER
200 PM EST Wednesday January 13 2021
...Flood Potential is below normal for the Ohio Valley...
A below normal flood potential means there is a low risk for minor
flooding. If flooding would occur...it would be very isolated and only
have minor impacts.
Recent precipitation during the last two weeks has been much below
normal. Perecntages are unavailable at this time.
Importantly in assessing the flood potential...the precipitation has
been 40-60% percent of normal across watersheds in the lower Ohio
Valley and middle drainages of the Ohio River Basin. Only in the
upper Ohio Valley precipitation has been near normal.
Scale is 0-100%. <30% is below normal. > 70% is above normal.
Illinois - 30-70%
Indiana - 30-70% except drought conditions in the Tippecanoe basin
Ohio - 30-70% except dry conditions in southeast Ohio
Western Pennsylvania - 5-30% with driest conditions in southwest PA
West Virginia - 30-70%
Kentucky - 30-70% with driest conditions in central KY
Tennessee - 30-70%
Scale is 0-100%. >75% is wet. <25% is dry.
Illinois - normal
Indiana - normal except in the Tippecanoe basin which is much below normal
Ohio - normal
Western Pennsylvania - normal
West Virginia - normal
Kentucky - normal
Tennessee - normal
...OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
(CURRENT % OF NORMAL)
Pittsburgh - 70%
Huntington - 75%
Cincinnati - 70%
Louisville - 65%
Evansville - 65%
Smithland - 90%
...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS...
1/4 inch in the upper Wabash
1/8 inch in both the Maumee and parts of the Great Lakes
1/2 inch in the upper Allegheny
...FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
In the near term...the storm track producing significant rainfall
will be across the deep South then up the East Coast in western North
Atlantic leaving the extreme southern basin on the far northern edge
of the precipitation shield and thus only light precipitation.
Another storm track moving thru the Ohio Valley could be in northwest
flow and thus relatively moisture deprived and producing only light
precipitation. During the next two weeks then...precipitation will be
below normal leading to a below normal risk for flooding.
...STATE BY STATE FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS...
Eastern Illinois - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Indiana - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Ohio - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Western Pennsylvania - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Southwestern New York - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
West Virginia - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Western Virginia - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Kentucky - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
Tennessee - low Flood Risk...no Impacts
...OHIO RIVER FLOW FORECASTS...
Pittsburgh - 70%
Huntington - 100%
Cincinnati - 105%
Louisville - 110%
Evansville - 110%
Smithland - 100%
For the long-range river outlooks and the probability of exceeding
flood stage during the next 90-days, refer to
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc and click on an individual forecast
point. Select probability information in the upper right-hand corner.
Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service during winter and early spring to summarize basin
hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the
potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wfo .
Factor considered in assessing flood potnetial include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future