National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH WILMINGTON OH 1042 AM EDT Wednesday March 30 2022 ...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is normal for the eastern half of the Ohio Valley and remains slightly above normal for the western half... ...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is normal for the Ohio Valley... PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS... Precipitation the last 14 days ranged from an inch or under for the eastern third of Kentucky, eastern Indiana and into western Ohio (thus 50-75 percent of normal) to 2-4+ inches in eastern Illinois, middle Tennessee, West Virginia into western Pennsylvania (or 150 to 300+ percent of normal). Other locations in the Ohio River Valley were close to normal. For more information please visit: https://water.weather.gov/precip SOIL MOISTURE... Current soil moisture conditions across the region are... State rankings: Southeast Illinois - Above normal Indiana - Near normal Ohio - Near normal Western Pennsylvania - Near normal West Virginia - Near to slightly below normal Kentucky - Western half above normal, eastern half below normal Tennessee - Above normal For more information please visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml USGS STREAMFLOWS... Average USGS Streamflow conditions for mid April across the region are... State rankings: Southeast Illinois - Near to slightly above normal Indiana - Near normal Ohio - Below normal west, near normal east Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal West Virginia - Slightly above normal Kentucky - Above normal west, Below normal east Tennessee - Above normal For more information please visit: https://watermonitor.gov RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... Reservoir storage is ample for flood storage as usage percentages are low basin-wide. Reservoirs are transitioning to Summer pools if applicable. OHIO RIVER FLOWS... Ohio River flows indicate slightly above normal conditions for mid April. Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal. Pittsburgh - 150% Huntington - 125% Cincinnati - 110% Louisville - 125% Evansville - 125% Smithland - 125% SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK... No noteworthy snow is present in the Ohio Valley. There is no risk for flooding due to snow melt. For more information please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa ICE COVER... There is no risk for flooding due to ice jamming. 2-WEEK AND 90-DAY FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... Overall discussion... The two-week outlook calls for near or slightly above normal precipitation in week 1 and near or slightly below normal in week 2. The 90 day precipitation outlook calls for above normal rainfall in the northern half of the Ohio River Valley for April into May. This pattern continues to follow the La Nina trend for the region. Therefore flood risk remains near to slightly above normal for the northern half of the Ohio Valley and near normal for the southern half. OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be above normal throughout the Ohio River drainage. Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal. Pittsburgh - 175% Huntington - 150% Cincinnati - 150% Louisville - 150% Evansville - 175% Smithland - 175% For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK... Southeast Illinois - Minor to moderate flooding Indiana - Minor to moderate flooding Ohio - None to Minor flooding Western Pennsylvania - None to Minor flooding Southwestern New York - None to Minor flooding West Virginia - None to Minor flooding Western Virginia - None to Minor flooding Kentucky - Minor flooding Tennessee - Minor flooding For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php ADDITIONAL INFORMAION... Flood risk is defined as follows: Below normal - flooding will be limited Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro . Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$