National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 145 PM EDT Wednesday March, 17 2021 ...Flood Potential during the next 2 weeks is normal to above for the Ohio Valley... ...Flood Potential during the next 90-days is normal to above for the Ohio Valley... ...PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS... Precipitation has been 125-150% of normal in the Green, Little Wabash, lower end of the Whites and lower Wabash watersheds. The remaining watersheds in the Ohio River Basin have had 25-75% of normal precipitation. For more information please visit: https://water.weather.gov/precip ...SOIL MOISTURE... State rankings: Southeast Illinois - above normal Indiana - above normal south, below normal north Ohio - above normal south, below normal north Western Pennsylvania - normal to slightly below West Virginia - normal Kentucky - much above normal Tennessee - normal For more information please visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml ...USGS STREAMFLOWS... State rankings: Southeast Illinois - above normal Indiana - normal south, much below north Ohio - normal south, much below north Western Pennsylvania - normal to slightly below West Virginia - below normal Kentucky - above normal west, normal east Tennessee - normal For more information please visit: https://watermonitor.gov ...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... Reservoir storage is near normal north of the Ohio River and approaching normal storage south of the mainstem. OHIO RIVER FLOWS... Values are in percent of normal : above 100% is above normal and below 100% is below normal. Pittsburgh - 70% Huntington - 55% Cincinnati - 70% Louisville - 75% Evansville - 100% Smithland - 130% ...SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK... No snowpack in the Ohio River Basin For more information please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa ...ICE COVER... No ice cover in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes drainage ....2-WEEK AND 90-DAY FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... During the next two weeks...an active weather pattern is forecast in the Ohio River Basin/Great Lakes drainage producing above normal rainfall. The resulting risk for flooding is above normal across watersheds in Kentucky, southeast Illinois as well as southern Indiana and southern Ohio. A normal risk for flooding will exist in northern Indiana, northern Ohio, southwest New York State, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Tennessee. During the next 90 days, rainfall outlooks are above normal. During the next 90 days...the flood outlook is minor to moderate across southeast Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. There will be minor flooding risk across Ohio, Tennessee, western Virginia and West Virginia. A risk of no flooding to minor flooding is present across western Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. ...OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... Values are in percent of normal : above 100% is above normal and below 100% is below normal. Pittsburgh - 100% Huntington - 125% Cincinnati - 130% Louisville - 140% Evansville - 130% Smithland - 125% For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc ...90-day Outlook into May 2021... Flood risk during the next 90 days will be minor to moderate across southeast Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. There will be minor flooding risk across Ohio, Tennessee, western Virginia and West Virginia. A risk of no flooding to minor flooding is present across western Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. ...STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD IMPACTS... Southeast Illinois - Minor to moderate flooding Indiana - Minor to moderate flooding Ohio - Minor flooding Western Pennsylvania -None to minor flooding Southwestern New York - None to minor flooding West Virginia - Minor flooding Western Virginia - Minor flooding Kentucky - Minor to moderate flooding Tennessee - Minor flooding For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Flood risk is defined as follows: Below normal - flooding will be isolated Normal - minor flooding Above normal - widespread minor flooding with moderate or major possible Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro . Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$ Wheeler