National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

El Nino conditions likely to persist
into 2015-2016 winter season

These graphics show the increased risk of experiencing extreme warm or cold temperatures during El Nino events across the country, averaged over 3 month periods. The northern tier of the U.S. has an increased risk of extreme warmth, but the odds decrease as you head into the latter part of winter and early spring. For the southern U.S, the risk of extreme cold increases and spreads northward heading into late winter and spring (Feb thru April timeframe). Here in our area the odds are fairly neutral for most of the period until we get into March and April when there is an increased risk of colder temperatures.

These graphics show the increased risk of experiencing wetter or drier extremes across the country during El Nino events, averaged over 3 month periods. The southern states from California and Arizona to Florida have an increased risk of experiencing wetter conditions compared to normal as storm systems tend to track repeatedly across these locations. The Ohio Valley and northern states from Montana into upstate New York have an increased risk of drier than normal conditions. This is especially true for the 3 month time period centered on February and again on April.

A Look at Past Strong El Nino Winters - Temperatures

https://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/mw_climate/elNino/images/hist_StrongEN_tempdep.png

A Look at Past Strong El Nino Winters - Precipitation

https://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/mw_climate/elNino/images/hist_StrongEN_precipPct.png