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Milton has intensified into a major hurricane and is expected to make landfall along the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula early Thursday morning. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings have been issued. Heavy rainfall from Milton will result in widespread flash flooding Wednesday across central Florida, with life-threatening and catastrophic flooding probable. Read More >

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
407 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

...2020 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.

...There is a normal to above normal probability of flooding during
the next three months...

Outlook:

Locations that typically flood each spring are expected to
experience minor flooding during the outlook period ending at mid-
May. Locations with a 50 percent or greater probability of flooding
include the following: Little Blue River near Barnes, Big Blue River
at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion at Frankfort, Vermillion Creek near
Louisville, Solomon River at Niles, and Marias Des Cygnes River near
Reading and Quenemo.

Recent Conditions:

Average temperature during the past 60-days ranged from around 30
degrees across north-central Kansas to the middle 30s in east-
central Kansas. These values are generally 2 to 5 degrees above
normal.

During the past 60-days, precipitation totals ranged from near 2
inches across far northeast Kansas to nearly 6 inches over parts of
east-central Kansas. These values ranged from 100 to 200 percent of
normal precipitation.

Present Conditions:

Across the NWS Topeka HSA, current soil moisture percentiles range
from in excess of 95 percent across north-central Kansas to around
90 percent in east-central Kansas. To the north, much of south-
central Nebraska have soil moisture percentiles in excess of 99
percent. 7-Day average streamflow indicates above to much above
streamflow values across southern Nebraska, into northern and
eastern Kansas.

No snow cover exists over southern Nebraska into far north-central
Kansas. Further south, snow cover over northeast and east-central
Kansas contains less than a half inch of water equivalent.

Available local reservoir flood control storage is currently above
99 percent.

Future Conditions:

Precipitation over the next seven days is expected to be less than a
tenth inch of liquid across all of Kansas and Nebraska.

During the 8 to 14 day period, the overall pattern favors below
normal precipitation and slightly above normal temperature across
the northern half of Kansas.

During the March through May period there is no strong signal for
either above or below temperatures while the pattern favors an
increased probability of above normal precipitation across far
northeast and eastern Kansas.

The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 27, 2020.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/15/2020  - 05/15/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville          35.0   38.2   43.0 :   8    5    5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg          19.0   19.4   45.0 :   6   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Washington          18.0   19.0   35.0 :  38   32   21   29   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes              16.0   23.0   39.0 :  52   34   16    7   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids         26.0   52.0   68.0 :  72   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort           19.0   27.5   40.5 :  77   68   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fancy Creek
Randolph            16.0   24.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman             19.0   26.0   37.0 :  27   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City       21.0   35.0   39.0 :  25   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City       22.0   32.0   44.0 :  18   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley            21.0   26.0   33.0 :  15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic    14.0   17.0   23.0 :  14   12    7    7   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan           18.0   26.0   42.0 :  17   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wamego              19.0   26.0   38.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville          30.0   34.0   44.0 :  57   51   33   33   <5   <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville          27.0   33.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Belvue              20.0   28.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville           25.0   29.0   31.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico              21.0   31.0   33.0 :  38   42   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Topeka              26.0   27.0   44.0 :   5    6    5    5   <5   <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia               26.0   26.5   29.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Topeka 4nw          29.0   34.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton           17.0   23.8   38.0 :  12   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lawrence            18.0   20.0   29.0 :  14   21    6    6   <5   <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s         23.0   25.0   45.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Scandia             10.0   13.0   15.0 :  14    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown           16.0   19.0   35.0 :  23   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Concordia           15.0   18.0   30.0 :   8    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde               14.0   22.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Clay Center         15.0   21.0   28.0 :  41   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Glasco              22.0   25.0   34.0 :  28   23   17   14   <5   <5
Minneapolis         26.0   30.0   38.0 :   8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Ada                 18.0   19.0   24.0 :  14   21   12   19   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Niles               24.0   28.0   34.0 :  50   47   36   30   <5   <5
:Saline River
Tescott             25.0   29.0   32.0 :  36   37   25   26   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri   27.0   30.0   33.0 :  19   23    8    8   <5   <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene             15.0   27.0   33.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise          26.0   27.0   40.0 :  46   43   40   39   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading             19.0   21.0   45.0 :  56   54   48   49   <5   <5
Quenemo             17.0   24.5   40.5 :  61   60   29   37   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon              10.0   16.0   24.0 :  46   49   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa              31.0   33.0   45.0 :  24   26    5    5   <5   <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett             26.0   32.0   34.0 :  30   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lane                23.0   24.0   28.5 :  18   18   11   13   <5   <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw          21.0   23.5   40.0 :  27   16    5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia             20.0   24.0   32.0 :  33   27   15   13   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Americus            26.0   27.0   40.0 :   7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Emporia 3nw         19.0   19.5   30.5 :  22    9   20    8   <5   <5
Neosho Rapids       22.0   23.0   44.0 :  32   18   29   16   <5   <5
Burlington          27.0   40.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Leroy               23.0   23.0   38.0 :   9    8    9    8   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/15/2020  - 05/15/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           14.7   18.0   21.3   26.8   31.6   33.6   39.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            3.0    4.5    6.2    9.8   14.0   15.8   19.4
:Mill Creek
Washington            2.3    2.6    7.9   14.5   18.5   21.8   23.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes                4.8    6.1   10.9   17.0   21.6   24.5   26.1
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          16.9   20.1   23.0   30.8   34.4   41.8   44.8
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             4.1    6.8   19.7   23.0   24.8   26.4   26.9
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              0.8    0.9    4.1    5.8    7.9   12.2   13.8
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               6.0    6.7   10.9   14.4   19.4   21.7   22.2
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         8.9    9.9   11.4   14.3   21.1   29.8   33.4
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         4.1    5.2    8.2   12.6   18.4   24.7   25.6
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              8.1    8.9   10.3   13.3   17.0   22.1   24.2
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      4.0    4.7    5.6    6.7    9.8   14.6   19.6
:Kansas River
Manhattan             8.6    9.7   10.9   13.7   16.5   19.8   21.2
Wamego                5.8    6.8    8.7   11.0   14.5   16.4   19.5
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville           11.7   14.2   23.6   31.9   36.2   38.1   39.9
:Rock Creek
Louisville            9.0    9.6   10.5   12.0   14.8   18.3   22.9
:Kansas River
Belvue                7.8    8.9   10.8   12.7   15.6   17.4   19.6
:Cross Creek
Rossville             9.8   12.0   13.7   16.0   21.3   23.9   24.9
:Mill Creek
Paxico                6.7    7.2    9.7   15.6   25.5   28.1   29.5
:Kansas River
Topeka                8.1    9.3   12.0   14.9   18.6   23.2   26.7
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 7.8   10.3   13.2   17.4   22.8   24.8   25.4
Topeka 4nw            2.7    4.9    7.6    9.4   14.7   19.2   21.6
:Kansas River
Lecompton             6.2    7.1    9.1   11.2   14.0   18.0   20.2
Lawrence             13.0   13.5   14.5   15.5   17.0   19.0   21.2
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s           7.8    9.1   12.7   16.6   19.9   21.7   23.9
:Republican River
Scandia               2.6    3.2    4.0    5.2    7.7   10.6   11.4
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             1.0    1.0    5.6   12.4   15.4   18.3   18.7
:Republican River
Concordia             6.1    6.5    7.6    9.2   12.5   14.4   16.2
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.7    4.7    6.0    7.1    7.8    9.0   11.3
:Republican River
Clay Center           8.6    9.1   11.3   14.3   17.2   18.0   20.2
:Solomon River
Glasco               10.0   10.0   10.0   16.7   24.5   27.9   29.9
Minneapolis           6.2    6.2    6.3   13.5   22.3   24.9   28.0
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.7    4.7    5.5   10.4   14.3   19.8   20.7
:Solomon River
Niles                12.2   12.2   13.9   24.1   29.2   29.7   30.0
:Saline River
Tescott               6.5    6.9    9.3   17.8   29.0   31.0   31.9
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri     9.6   11.5   15.1   20.7   24.5   29.2   31.1
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.6    3.6    5.5    8.9   11.7   14.2   15.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise           12.2   14.3   18.8   24.3   29.1   32.5   36.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               5.7    6.9   12.1   20.2   23.2   23.9   24.5
Quenemo               5.4    8.2   13.2   18.9   25.5   28.2   29.5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                3.1    3.8    5.8    9.6   13.1   14.1   15.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa               10.4   14.0   17.8   26.6   30.9   32.2   33.4
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett               9.9   16.2   22.3   24.2   26.5   28.2   28.8
Lane                  7.4   10.3   13.1   19.5   22.5   24.6   25.9
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw            1.2    8.8   12.7   18.1   22.0   23.0   23.4
:Cottonwood River
Emporia               4.7    7.1    9.5   16.3   21.8   25.4   25.9
:Neosho River
Americus              5.8    6.3   10.2   12.9   21.0   25.4   26.7
Emporia 3nw          10.7   11.2   12.6   13.9   18.3   22.9   24.0
Neosho Rapids         5.3    6.8    9.7   16.5   24.5   27.7   29.2
Burlington            7.0    7.4   11.4   13.9   16.7   18.2   19.3
Leroy                 4.5    5.7   10.5   13.9   17.7   22.3   27.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/15/2020  - 05/15/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           13.4   13.2   13.2   13.1   13.0   13.0   13.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9
:Mill Creek
Washington            2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes                4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          16.1   16.0   16.0   15.9   15.8   15.7   15.6
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              0.7    0.7    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               5.3    5.2    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         6.0    6.0    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.6
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              6.1    6.1    6.1    6.0    5.9    5.9    5.9
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7
:Kansas River
Manhattan             7.4    7.4    7.4    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3
Wamego                4.5    4.4    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.8
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville            7.2    7.1    7.1    7.0    7.0    6.9    6.8
:Rock Creek
Louisville            8.6    8.6    8.6    8.6    8.6    8.5    8.5
:Kansas River
Belvue                6.5    6.3    6.1    5.8    5.6    5.6    5.5
:Cross Creek
Rossville             7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.3
:Mill Creek
Paxico                3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3
:Kansas River
Topeka                6.2    6.0    5.9    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 6.9    6.8    6.7    6.6    6.4    4.0    4.0
Topeka 4nw            0.5    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.2    0.1    0.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton             3.2    3.2    3.1    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Lawrence             12.1   12.1   12.0   12.0   11.9   11.9   11.9
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s           4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:Republican River
Scandia               1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.1    1.1    1.1
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Republican River
Concordia             5.6    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.2    5.2    5.2
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Republican River
Clay Center           7.9    7.7    7.6    7.5    7.4    7.2    7.2
:Solomon River
Glasco                5.0    4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7
Minneapolis           3.7    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.3
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Solomon River
Niles                 9.0    8.4    8.3    8.2    8.1    8.0    8.0
:Saline River
Tescott               5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri     5.1    4.9    4.7    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise            8.9    8.8    8.7    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0
Quenemo               1.2    1.2    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.7
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.7    0.7    0.7
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa                4.3    4.2    4.0    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett               3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4
Lane                  5.7    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw            0.8    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.

$$