The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) has debuted an experimental graphical forecast highlighting the probability of wind and wave hazards across both the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans during the week 2 period.
The product can be found on OPC’s webpage and displays wind speed probabilities in percent of sustained (one-minute average) surface (10-meter) wind speeds that are equal to or exceeding 34 knots (kt) (39 mph), 48 kt (55 mph), and 64 kt (74 mph). These values equal the respective thresholds for gale-, storm-, and hurricane-force winds.
Additionally, users can find probabilities in percent of significant wave heights equal to or exceeding 4 meters (m), 6m, 9m, and 14m. These probabilities are based on the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), validated and calibrated for hazardous forecast conditions. The values correspond to the probability of the hazard criteria being met at any time during the week 2 period.
The domain for wind speed and wave height probabilities is from approximately 20 south latitude to 80 north latitude, and from 0 longitude to approximately 140 east longitude. During the tropical cyclone season from June through November, the southern extent of the coverage area will be 30 north latitude while research continues to improve probabilities that may include tropical systems.
 |
| Probability of winds 34 knots or greater for the week of April 15, 2025 - April 22, 2025. The image was produced with the 00 UTC Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) run on April 8, 2025. Note the >80% probability south of Greenland. |
For more information, visit the product description document and feedback and input may be submitted here.
