Well above normal temperatures are forecast to shift from the northern Plains through the Northeast U.S. over the long holiday weekend. A few strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible as well along with a potential for excessive rainfall. A tropical or subtropical depression could form off the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend while drifting northward to northeastward. Read More >
ZCZC FTWWRKZFW TTAA00 KFTW 062312 (Aug 6, 2017...last discussion) FORT WORTH CWSU AVIATION DISCUSSION...062312Z CONCERNS...PCPN TRENDS. WNW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS THRU THE NEXT TAF PD AND BYD...WITH EMBD SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING NCNTRL TX. A SFC CDFNT EXTENDED FROM NRN AR THEN WSWWD ACROSS SCNTRL OK TO SW OK THEN WSW TO MIDWAY BTWN LBB AND MAF..ACROSS TO SERN NM. STRONG MSTR CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED VCNTY/N OF A SFC LO PRES AREA TO THE S OF SPS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDED FM VCNTY ABI SW TO S OF FST. THE AMS ACROSS NCNTRL TX IS UNSTBL/UNCAPPED...HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING/LIFT HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE METROPLEX. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MCS NR/WEST OF THE WRN TRACON BNDRY CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD..W/ CELL MOVMNT WEST TO EAST ARND 10KT. THE LATEST CIWS FCST HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TSRA UP TO THE DFW TERMINAL BTWN 0045Z-01Z. EXP THIS BATCH OF PCPN WL DRIFT S OF THE METROPLEX BY 03Z OR SO. BUT...PER THE HRRR...LIFT IS FCST TO RAMP UP ACRS AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX BY 03-04Z. PER THE HRRR...EXP WE COULD SEE AT LEAST VCTS THRU 07Z...W/ SHRA POSS THRU 10Z. LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOS MAY BE WORKED OVR SUCH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH CONVECTION MON AM INTO THE AFTN. WE MAY SEE SOME NEW DVLPMNT MID-LATE AFTN HOWEVER. OTRW...VFR CONDS THRU MOST OF THE OVNGT..OUTSIDE OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS POSS BY 11-12Z...THRU MUCH OF THE AM. SELY WINDS CONTG W/ CHC TO BACK NELY BY 20Z AS FNTL BNDRY REACHES THE METROPLEX. INLIGHT IMPACTS...NONE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. DFW/D10 IMPACTS... VFR OUTSIDE OF WX. MAINLY S FLOW...OUTSIDE OF A POSS SWD MOVG OUTFLOW BNDRY. DFW AIRPORT ACCEPTANCE RATE...S FLOW 114. DAL AIRPORT ACCEPTANCE RATE...S FLOW 24. RUNWAY OUTAGE IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR DFW (Timing of onset/ending very important) CIGS VSBY ARRIVALS/HR IMPACT (AAR) >4000 >6 120+ No ARTCC problems 1000-4000 3-6 112-114 Limited or no vis approaches (NO VAPS) 200-900 1/2-3 96 In-trail spacing needed (MIT) <200 <1/4 78-84 Significant delays (MIT GDP) TSRA 0+ Variable delays (MIT GDP GS) FZRA/FZDZ/SN Major delays for de-icing (MIT GDP GS) WINDSHIFTS Up to 30 minutes of ground/airborne CROSSWINDS 20-24KT 114-84 Miles in Trail (MIT) >25KT <78 Miles in Trail Delay Prgrms (MIT GDP) NNNN