National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather Threat Continues Today; Heavy Snow Across Northern New England

A storm system moving across the Southern and Eastern states will bring severe thunderstorms to parts of South Texas and the Mid-Atlantic states today. To the north, this storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds to northern New England into Friday. A stronger storm system moving across the Southern tier may produce more widespread severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, this weekend. Read More >

ZCZC FTWWRKZFW
TTAA00 KFTW 062312  (Aug 6, 2017...last discussion)

FORT WORTH CWSU AVIATION DISCUSSION...062312Z

CONCERNS...PCPN TRENDS.

WNW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS THRU THE NEXT 
TAF PD AND BYD...WITH EMBD SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING NCNTRL TX.
A SFC CDFNT EXTENDED FROM NRN AR THEN WSWWD ACROSS SCNTRL OK
TO SW OK THEN WSW TO MIDWAY BTWN LBB AND MAF..ACROSS TO SERN NM.
STRONG MSTR CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED VCNTY/N OF A SFC LO PRES AREA
TO THE S OF SPS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDED FM VCNTY ABI SW TO
S OF FST. THE AMS ACROSS NCNTRL TX IS UNSTBL/UNCAPPED...HOWEVER
THE BEST FORCING/LIFT HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE METROPLEX. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE MCS NR/WEST OF THE WRN TRACON BNDRY CONTINUES TO 
BUILD SWD..W/ CELL MOVMNT WEST TO EAST ARND 10KT. THE LATEST 
CIWS FCST HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TSRA UP TO THE DFW TERMINAL
BTWN 0045Z-01Z. EXP THIS BATCH OF PCPN WL DRIFT S OF THE 
METROPLEX BY 03Z OR SO. BUT...PER THE HRRR...LIFT IS FCST TO 
RAMP UP ACRS AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX BY 03-04Z.
PER THE HRRR...EXP WE COULD SEE AT LEAST VCTS THRU 07Z...W/
SHRA POSS THRU 10Z. LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOS MAY BE WORKED OVR
SUCH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH CONVECTION MON AM INTO THE
AFTN. WE MAY SEE SOME NEW DVLPMNT MID-LATE AFTN HOWEVER.
OTRW...VFR CONDS THRU MOST OF THE OVNGT..OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
MVFR CIGS POSS BY 11-12Z...THRU MUCH OF THE AM. SELY WINDS 
CONTG W/ CHC TO BACK NELY BY 20Z AS FNTL BNDRY REACHES THE
METROPLEX.

INLIGHT IMPACTS...NONE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

DFW/D10 IMPACTS...
VFR OUTSIDE OF WX. MAINLY S FLOW...OUTSIDE OF A POSS
SWD MOVG OUTFLOW BNDRY. 

DFW AIRPORT ACCEPTANCE RATE...S FLOW 114.
DAL AIRPORT ACCEPTANCE RATE...S FLOW 24. RUNWAY OUTAGE 

IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR DFW (Timing of onset/ending very important)

CIGS          VSBY  ARRIVALS/HR    IMPACT
                     (AAR)
>4000          >6     120+         No ARTCC problems 
1000-4000     3-6    112-114       Limited or no vis approaches (NO VAPS)
200-900       1/2-3    96          In-trail spacing needed (MIT)
<200          <1/4    78-84        Significant delays (MIT GDP)
TSRA                    0+         Variable delays (MIT GDP GS)
FZRA/FZDZ/SN                       Major delays for de-icing  (MIT GDP GS)
WINDSHIFTS                         Up to 30 minutes of ground/airborne 
CROSSWINDS
20-24KT              114-84        Miles in Trail (MIT)
>25KT                  <78         Miles in Trail Delay Prgrms (MIT GDP)                

NNNN