Severe Thunderstorms Likely Across the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes, are likely to develop this afternoon from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) outlook has been issued. Further north, widespread rain showers are expected across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. Read More >

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Southwest Idaho and Southeast Oregon Freeze Probability Data

The tables list the probability of a given temperature or lower will be reached by a date. Probabilities are based on observed temperatures from 1981 through 2010. For example, Boise has a 90% chance of getting spring temperatures of 36 F on and after May 10.

A hard freeze is when temperatures reach or fall below 28 F.
A freeze is when temperatures reach or fall below 32 F.

SPRING

FALL

Boise % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 2	May 11	May 16	June 5	June 11
32 F	April 17	May 2	May 8	May 14	May 25
28 F	March 28	April 9	April 16	May 5	May 12
24 F	Feb. 17	March 2	March 12	April 9	April 21

Nampa % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 9	May 13	May 22	May 30	June 9
32 F	April 16	April 22	May 3	May 10	May 19
28 F	March 24	April 3	April 12	April 22	May 1
24 F	March 3	March 5	March 17	April 3	April 15

Emmett % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 2	May 8	May 17	May 30	June 8
32 F	April 18	April 28	May 5	May 13	May 20
28 F	March 20	March 31	April 14	April 25	May 5
24 F	March 1	March 5	March 19	April 9	April 15

Payette % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 1	May 5	May 12	May 24	June 3
32 F	April 16	April 19	May 2	May 12	May 14
28 F	March 24	April 5	April 12	April 23	May 6
24 F	March 3	March 10	March 28	April 11	April 17

Parma % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 3	May 10	May 16	May 31	June 8
32 F	April 16	April 24	May 2	May 12	May 15
28 F	March 28	April 7	April 14	April 20	May 3
24 F	March 3	March 19	March 28	April 9	April 11

Nyssa % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	April 21	May 4	May 9	May 19	June 12
32 F	April 1	April 13	April 22	May 2	May 11
28 F	March 14	March 26	April 7	April 15	April 25
24 F	Feb. 17	March 2	March 16	April 7	April 10

Vale, Oregon % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 5	May 19	June 1	June 14	Jul 2
32 F	April 29	May 6	May 10	May 20	May 20
28 F	April 10	April 15	April 24	May 6	May 18
24 F	March 13	March 30	April 12	April 18	May 5

Grand View % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 1	May 7	May 16	May 25	June 6
32 F	April 17	April 27	May 5	May 12	May 16
28 F	April 6	April 9	April 15	April 27	May 7
24 F	March 3	March 24	March 31	April 12	April 17

Glenns Ferry % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 13	May 22	May 31	June 13	June 20
32 F	April 30	May 4	May 13	May 21	May 24
28 F	April 14	April 23	May 3	May 13	May 20
24 F	March 30	April 10	April 17	April 30	May 7

Twin Falls % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 19	May 24	June 5	June 12	June 19
32 F	April 30	May 6	May 10	May 19	May 25
28 F	April 15	April 26	May 1	May 7	May 13
24 F	March 18	March 30	April 11	April 27	May 3

Boise % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 10	Sept. 20	Sept. 25	Oct. 3	Oct. 10
32 F	Sept. 21	Sept. 30	Oct. 11	Oct. 20	Oct. 25
30 F	Oct. 6	Oct. 16	Oct. 25	Nov. 1	Nov. 8
28 F	Oct. 15	Oct. 29	Nov. 4	Nov. 19	Nov. 26

Nampa % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 10	Sept. 17	Sept.24	Oct. 6	Oct. 10
32 F	Sept. 25	Oct. 6	Oct. 11	Oct. 20	Oct. 25
28 F	Oct. 10	Oct. 13	Oct. 24	Oct. 30	Nov. 6
24 F	Oct. 18	Oct. 30	Nov. 8	Nov. 14	Nov. 21

Emmett % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 13	Sept. 21	Oct. 1	Oct. 7	Oct. 10
32 F	Sept. 22	Oct. 1	Oct. 13	Oct. 18	Oct. 30
28 F	Oct. 3	Oct. 12	Oct. 26	Oct. 31	Nov. 9
24 F	Oct. 19	Oct. 29	Nov. 3	Nov. 15	Nov. 23

Payette % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 11	Sept. 22	Sept. 30	Oct. 7	Oct. 12
32 F	Sept. 22	Sept. 28	Oct. 11	Oct. 17	Oct. 21
28 F	Oct. 3	Oct. 12	Oct. 21	Oct. 29	Nov. 2
24 F	Oct. 20	Oct. 25	Nov. 2	Nov. 10	Nov. 21

Parma % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 9	Sept. 13	Sept. 21	Sept. 30	Oct. 5
32 F	Sept. 19	Sept. 23	Oct. 4	Oct. 9	Oct. 12
28 F	Sept. 23	Oct. 8	Oct. 16	Oct. 21	Oct. 28
24 F	Oct. 8	Oct. 17	Oct. 30	Nov. 8	Nov. 21

Nyssa % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 18	Sept. 23	Oct. 1	Oct. 8	Oct. 14
32 F	Sept. 24	Oct. 4	Oct. 12	Oct. 23	Oct. 29
28 F	Oct. 11	Oct. 17	Oct. 25	Oct. 31	Nov. 11
24 F	Oct. 23	Oct. 30	Nov. 10	Nov. 21	Nov. 25

Vale, Oregon % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 2	Sept. 10	Sept. 16	Sept. 23	Oct. 4
32 F	Sept. 17	Sept. 21	Sept. 24	Oct. 1	Oct. 9
28 F	Sept. 22	Sept. 26	Oct. 10	Oct. 15	Oct. 26
24 F	Oct. 2	Oct. 12	Oct. 20	Oct. 31	Nov. 6

Grand View % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 7	Sept. 10	Sept. 19	Sept. 25	Oct. 4
32 F	Sept. 22	Sept. 24	Oct. 5	Oct. 10	Oct. 13
28 F	Sept. 26	Oct. 8	Oct. 14	Oct. 24	Oct 30
24 F	Oct. 13	Oct 18	Oct. 26	Nov. 2	Nov. 9

Glenns Ferry % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Aug. 27	Sept. 6	Sept. 10	Sept. 15	Sept. 23
32 F	Sept. 8	Sept. 15	Sept. 22	Oct. 4	Oct. 7
28 F	Sept. 21	Sept. 28	Oct. 10	Oct. 16	Oct. 21
24 F	Sept. 28	Oct. 14	Oct. 24	Nov. 2	Nov. 11

Twin Falls % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Aug. 30	Sept. 5	Sept. 13	Sept. 21	Sept. 22
32 F	Sept. 11	Sept. 17	Sept. 24	Oct. 5	Oct. 6
28 F	Sept. 23	Oct. 2	Oct. 10	Oct. 17	Oct. 25
24 F	Oct. 12	Oct. 17	Oct. 25	Nov. 1	Nov. 15

Jerome % Probability of Indicated Temperature or Lower on or After Date
	90%	75%	50%	25%	10%
36 F	May 10	May 18	May 27	June 9	June 13
32 F	April 30	May 4	May 10	May 20	June 2
28 F	April 8	April 15	April 27	May 3	May 7
24 F	March 16	March 25	April 4	April 13	April 20

Jerome % Probability of Temperature or Lower on or Before Date
	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
36 F	Sept. 6	Sept. 14	Sept. 21	Oct. 2	Oct. 5
32 F	Sept. 21	Sept. 24	Oct. 5	Oct. 12	Oct. 20
28 F	Oct. 2	Oct. 8	Oct. 17	Oct. 27	Nov. 7
24 F	Oct. 12	Oct. 17	Oct. 30	Nov. 7	Nov. 15

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