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000
FXAK69 PAFG 021255
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
455 AM AKDT Sun Oct 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Weak troughing between the ranges today with isolated
to scattered showers. Snow above 1000 feet with light
accumulations north of Fairbanks. Cloudy in the Arctic. A mix of
clouds on the West Coast as the decaying remnants of Typhoon Kulap
move near Kuskokwim Bay. Temperatures will be cooling today, then
warming.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models...02/00Z solutions in good agreement through the extended,
periods, and they are showing good run to run continuity. We have
been seeing good consistency with the GFS the last few systems,
so we will continue to lean more heavily on it in the extended
periods will a general blend for the short term. Not making a lot
of changes to the current forecast database as the previous shift
also leaned on the GFS. Will make some minor adjustments to
temperatures, and nudge the probabilities toward the SREF to get
them slightly higher. Solutions have a good handle on the winds so
will use a blend with a lean toward the Canadian solution over
water. Temperatures cooler today then slowly warming.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 546 dam high is moving over the Western
Chukchi Sea this morning, while a 533 dam low is over Atigun Pass
and a 528 dam low has moved over the Pribilofs.A 501 dam low
remain high in the Arctic and a 524 dam low is over Banks Island
moving northeast. By this afternoon the high will be 100 nm
northwest of Point Hope while weak troughing will extend from the
Eastern Arctic Coast southwest to a 537 dam low over the Brooks
Range to a 534 dam low over Cape Newenham then west. A 527 dam low
will move to 100 nm north of Amchitka, and the low high in the
Arctic will slide south over the Dateline to 84N at 501 dam.
Monday morning the high will be over Point Lay at 546 dam, while
troughing will lie over MacKenzie Bay to 538 dam low just east of
Bethel. The low north of Amchitka will move to 150 nm northwest of
Nikolski, and the low high in the Arctic will be over the
Dateline near 86N at 498 dam. Monday afternoon the high will be
over Nuiqsut at 548 dam with weak troughing to the southeast of
the high over the Upper Yukon Flats then west over Norton Sound to
Gambell. The low near Nikolski will move to 50 nm north of Dutch
Harbor at 552 dam, and the low in the high Arctic will remain over
the Dateline near 86N at 497 dam. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm
hanging on over the southeast Interior as cooler air continue to
be pulled southeast into the state today. Warmer air will be
pulled back over the state as the high aloft moves east across the
Arctic and the low over the Aleutians spins some warmer air
north.
Surface...A benign pressure pattern across the state with weak
trough between the ranges as the remnants of Typhoon Kulap have
moved to 50 nm east of St George Island at 985 mb. A 1002 mb low
near Kodiak City has moved northeast to Whittier at 1006 mb. Weak
high pressure continue to push northwest into the Copper River
Basin, while a high moving across the Arctic has moved to 100 nm
northeast of Utqiagvik at 1021 mb. Sunday afternoon the high in
the Arctic will be 150 nm north of Kaktovik at 1022 mb. Weak
troughing will be moving over the Western Arctic. Weak low
pressure will persist between the ranges as the decaying remnants
of Typhoon Kulap move to 100 nm southwest of Cape Newenham. A 990
mb low will move to 100 nm north of Amchitka. Monday morning the
high in the Arctic will be 200 nm north of MacKenzie Bay at 1024
mb with high pressure pushing west over the offshore waters. Weak
troughing will lie along the Dateline in the Arctic. Weak
troughing will remain between the ranges as the decaying remnants
of Typhoon Kulap merge with the low to the west as it moves to 100
nm west of St George at 986 mb.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...As the high off the coast moves
east across the area winds will swing around from onshore to
along shore to offshore. Don`t expect much change with cloudy
conditions and snow showers today. Most snow showers will be in
the Eastern Brooks Range today tapering off by afternoon. Winds
from Oliktok Point west mainly offshore at 10 to 25 mph, while
winds to the east are onshore or along shore at 10 to 20 mph.
Winds inland mainly northeast at 5 to 15 mph. High temperatures
today and Monday in the 20s to around 30, except around 35 on the
Northwest Arctic Coast Monday. Lows temperatures tonight in the
teens inland and 20s along the coast.
West Coast and Western Interior...Showers in the Lower Yukon Delta
today, otherwise pretty quiet. A mix of clouds today with quite a
few breaks from the Seward Peninsula north. Winds mainly east at
15 to 25 mph along the coast and 5 to 15 mph in the inland areas.
High temperatures today and Monday in the 40s to around 50. Lows
temperatures tonight will be in the 20s north of Kotzebue, with
30s for the remainder of the area.
Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds and showers today.
Snow mixing in in the valley this morning, with some light
accumulations of snow above 1500 feet. Winds variable 4 to 8 mph
today except south winds to 35 mph near the Alaska Range passes
today, winds will be a bit stronger on Monday near the passes.
High temperatures today and Monday in the 30s north of the Steese
Highway, with 40s to the south, then slightly warmer temperatures
to around 50 south of the Steese highway Monday. Low temperatures
tonight in the teens north of the Yukon River with 20s to lower
30s to the south.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving across
Chukotka to Wrangel Island by Thursday morning will bring strong
south to southwesterly winds to Norton Sound, the Chukchi Sea, and
Western Arctic. There is an elevated risk of Coastal flooding
north of the Bering Strait with potential for elevated surf to the
south. Models are being more consistent so confidence is
increasing.
Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low moving east across the
Arctic will bring some showers to the northern half of the state
Wednesday. A strong low is moving to Wrangel Island by Thursday
morning with a weather front moving to the coast Thursday. Strong
south to southwesterly winds will accompany the low turning more
from the west as the front moves onshore. Weather in the Interior
will be quiet with some strong winds near the Alaska Range passes
and some isolated showers. Temperatures will be warming.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.
&&
$$
SDB SEP 22
000
FXAK68 PAFC 021259
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Sun Oct 2 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Longwave ridging is centered over the northern Bering/Chukchi Sea
this morning. To the south of this feature an active jet stream
continues to move areas of low pressure across the southern Bering
Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska. A 988 mb low centered just east
of Saint Paul is becoming occluded, which should steadily weaken
before pivoting across Bristol Bay later this evening. Its front
extends southward into the Alaska Peninsula with low stratus and
showers beginning to push into Southwest. The next Bering Sea
upper low is quickly sliding eastward and should overspread the
Western Aleutians with small craft to gale force winds expanding
in coverage this afternoon. Over the Gulf of Alaska southwesterly
flow remains prominent. A shortwave trough and front have pushed
inland of the northern Gulf coast with scattered showers during
the overnight hours spanning from Cook Inlet eastward into Prince
William Sound. Showery conditions will persist across much of
Southcentral through tonight with the passage of additional
disturbances. A weak front or two is also progged to lift across
the Gulf later today into Monday, which should keep unsettled
conditions over the Gulf.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement through the short-term, both with
the progression of the current Bering low pushing into Bristol Bay
later tonight, and with the low behind it drifting southward of
the Pribilofs, eventually across the Eastern Aleutians Monday
night. As the latter low crosses into the Gulf of Alaska early
next week it will begin to interact with another low drifting
northward out of the North Pacific. How these two areas of low
pressure interact with each other Tuesday into Tuesday night is
less clear. Some amplification of both lows appears probable as
they briefly phase. The Bering Sea low is forecast to continue
southward and into the North Pacific. The other low, however, may
become pulled northwestward and into the western Gulf by Wed
morning. Timing and placement of the low will be key in
forecasting accurate precipitation amounts.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...A passing upper level disturbance will bring showery
conditions to PANC on Sunday with MVFR conditions prevailing. Rain
chances diminish early Monday morning though MVFR conditions will
likely continue. Winds will remain largely variable through the
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through
Tuesday night)...
A series of short-waves on the front side of a long-wave trough
moving in from the Bering Sea will continue to bring areas of
rain to Southcentral. The trough will then lift northward across
Southcentral tonight through Monday morning, bringing another
round of rain. A short-wave ridge will follow quickly behind,
drying out much of the area. However, upslope flow and low level
instability will cause showers to linger along the coast and
western Susitna Valley. Meanwhile, another trough entering the
Bering Sea today will dig far down into the Pacific Monday/Tuesday
causing a downstream ridge to build from western Canada to
northern Alaska. This shift in the upper level flow will bring
moderate to heavy rain to Kodiak and the southeastern Kenai
Peninsula, while leading to drier conditions over inland portions
of Southcentral.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...
Unsettled weather will persist through Tuesday across Southwest
Alaska. Overnight, areas of fog have developed across interior
Bristol Bay due to the light winds and plentiful moisture from
yesterday`s rain. Later this morning, expect another round of rain
and elevated winds for Southwest Alaska as a Bering Sea low (the
remnants of Typhoon Kulap) moves towards Bristol Bay.
Southwesterly flow will favor rain moving up Bristol Bay and into
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. For the Kuskokwim Delta, drier
conditions are expected as the Kuskokwim Mountains block the
easterly transport of moisture around this low. However, high surf
remains a concern, and a Special Weather Statement remains in
effect. While the speed and direction of winds around the low are
less favorable for coastal flooding, higher than usual tides mean
that coastal erosion remains possible through late Sunday night.
Southwest Alaska will get little in the way of a break as another
low quickly follows in the heels of the first. The second low`s
front reaches the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night, then moves into
the remainder of Southwest Alaska by late Monday morning. Weak
ridging ahead of this front, in conjunction with onshore flow,
could lead to some fog from Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the bigger story will be the widespread rain and elevated
southeasterly winds along this front (especially through Kamishak
Gap and into interior Bristol Bay). Rain is expected from Sunday
night through Tuesday evening, with skies beginning to clear by
late Tuesday night as a ridge moves eastward from the Bering Sea.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...
Unsettled weather will persist through Tuesday as several systems
move across the Bering Sea. The first low (the remnants of former
Typhoon Kulap), is currently located in the Eastern Bering Sea.
Cold air wrapping around it is contributing to gusty, westerly
gales along the Eastern Aleutian Islands. Winds will slowly
diminish through today as the occluding low weakens and moves
east.
The second low, currently located near the Western Aleutians,
will quickly follow the first and provide another round of windy
and wet weather. Winds currently at small craft speeds will
increase through tonight, peaking this evening at over 45 kt in
the waters just north of the Central Aleutians. From there, the
low will gradually drift south, crossing over the Eastern
Aleutians and into the North Pacific Ocean by Monday evening. As a
ridge behind this low will lead to a tightened pressure gradient,
expect gusty northerly gap winds through the Eastern and Central
Aleutians from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday morning.
Then, expect the weather to become more settled as the ridge moves
in. The exception will be over the Western Aleutians and Bering,
as an approaching front brings southerly small craft winds and the
next round of rain.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
The synoptic setup to start off the period begins with an upper
level ridge extending northward from the North Pacific through the
Bering into Southwest Alaska while a strong upper level low moves
northeastward through Siberia. Another upper level ridge is
expected to be present over western North America with the axis of
this ridge bending over much of the Alaska Mainland meeting up
with the aforementioned ridge over Southwest Alaska. Underneath
these upper level ridges just south of the Gulf of Alaska is an
upper level low. Model guidance generally agrees on the movement
of these features for Wednesday and Thursday before beginning to
slightly diverge on Friday with basically very little agreement by
next Saturday.
For the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, there remains
variability in the exact strength the upper level ridges will be.
There is the potential that much of southern Alaska could endure
two fairly nice fall days with sunshine and mild temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday with any potential rain remaining to
immediate coastal locations and Kodiak Island. A frontal system
moving west across the northern Bering isn`t expected to move into
Southwest until Thursday night/Friday at this time, though, this
is moderate confidence as one solution moves in this front much
faster bringing unsettled conditions into Southwest during the day
Thursday. In the Bering, expecting small craft winds with the
potential for gales especially in the northwestern Bering
Wednesday. Moderate confidence for the first two days of the
period.
Beyond Thursday night, the forecast gets very fuzzy as each model
is moving along features at varying speeds and strengths. The main
takeaway for Friday and Saturday is expect for an unsettled regime
to return to much of southern Alaska.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm 175.
Gale 165 170 172-174 176-178 411 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...MV
000
FXAK67 PAJK 021331
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
531 AM AKDT Sun Oct 2 2022
.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...Much quieter weather is on
deck for most of the panhandle when compared to yesterday. The
main exception is Yakutat and the NE gulf coast.
A stalled out front will keep rain, heavy at times, over the
Yakutat area but this area of rain isn`t expected to move much
farther to the east. 24 hour rainfall amounts for Yakutat are
around 2 to 3 inches. QPF amounts were increased from inherited
forecast based on latest NBM, GFS & EURO ensembles, and ensemble
probabilities. Rain stays in Yakutat`s forecast through tonight.
For the rest of the panhandle, kept showers in the forecast for
the morning hours in Skagway, Haines, and Juneau. But as a ridge
builds over the panhandle, showers should diminish. And due to the
ridge of high pressure, mostly clear to clear skies are expected
over the central and southern panhandle today into tonight while
partly to mostly cloudy is expected along, and north, of Icy
Strait.
High temperatures were left alone from inherited forecast. So with
warm air in place aloft, forecasted highs today are in the upper
50s to mid 60s for most of the area, which is about 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early October.
Fog is visible on satellite imagery and is being reported at the
surface. Visibilities in the foggy areas drop to 1/4 mile at
times. This fog should lift by the mid morning so the afternoon is
expected to be fine.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...A very well-deserved
break in the weather is on its way for the long-term forecast
period. The period begins with a ridge of high pressure poised
over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle, which will bring partly
cloudy skies, dry conditions, and light winds to the region for
Monday through Tuesday morning. A rather weak frontal system
moves toward the Panhandle for late in the day on Tuesday and
lasting through Wednesday night, giving mostly cloudy to overcast
skies and chances for light rain over the region. Then, once
again, another ridge of high pressure builds-in for Thursday,
bringing decreasing clouds, warm temperatures, and light winds.
For the timeframe with decreased cloudiness, borderline record
high temperatures are possible. At 850 mb, for Monday, temperature
advection is neutral, but plenty of warm air is situated aloft
across the southern half of the Panhandle. For Tuesday, onward,
significant warm air advects over the region, which is especially
enhanced out ahead of the midweek front, and continuing through
the end of the long term forecast period. High temperatures may
reach up to 70 degrees, especially over the southern Panhandle.
Forecast confidence for the long term forecast period is around
average due to some divergence of synoptic feature locations and
strengths between the models from about halfway through the
period, onward. Additionally, for the same timeframe, ensemble
member spread gets rather significant.
&&
.AVIATION...We have 2 areas of weather concerns for pilots this
morning, across the north in Yakutat where rain and low ceilings
will prevail through the 24 hour forecast period, and in the
central and southern Panhandle where low ceilings and areas of fog
over the inner channels prevail this morning. We expect the fog
and low ceilings down south to begin lifting by late morning with
VFR category expected this afternoon into the evening for
Petersburg, Wrangell and Klawock.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ051-052.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....JLC
AVIATION...JG
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