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587
FXAK69 PAFG 041547
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
647 AM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather continues across Western Alaska, with an area of
snow moving across the Western Interior persisting through
Wednesday. The next shot for more significant weather comes in the
form of a couple waves of snow. The first will begin late
Wednesday and early Thursday, and while there is still
uncertainty, it will most likely will have lower accumulations in
the Middle Tanana Valley with better accumulations over the Yukon
Flats, eastern Brooks Range, and the eastern half-to-two-thirds
of the North Slope. The second round could potentially be more
robust for areas that miss out on the first round and could bring
up to a few inches of snow to much of the Central and Eastern
Interior. Parts of the south-central Interior/Upper Kuskokwim
Valley as well as the Brooks Range could see several inches of
fluffy/efficient snowfall. Gusty winds will weaken a bit on the
eastern Arctic coast but will strengthen again on Thursday, which
could combine with falling snow to yield reduced visibilities. Colder
weather is more likely moving into the weekend, with many inland
areas starting to see lows drop into the single digits or lower.
&&
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Better snow chances return Wednesday night into the weekend.
While there is uncertainty, most areas have a chance for at
least an inch. With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, some
areas could see up to six inches over a multi-day period. Higher
amounts up to 6 inches or more are expected for the Dalton Hwy
summits and within portions of the Yukon Flats, as well as the
White Mtns and eastern Brooks Range (especially for the
southeastern-facing slopes).
- Many areas of the Interior will see highs drop from the mid-low
20s into the upper teens tomorrow, with steadier or weakly
cooling temperatures through Saturday. Lows will be in the low
teens or single digits during this time frame.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered ocean effect snow showers will be possible today
along the Bering and Chukchi Sea coastlines and over the Seward
Peninsula.
- With the exception of parts of the Lower Yukon Valley, an
additional 1-3 inches of snow is possible from this morning
through Thursday morning for most of the Western Interior and
the Bering Sea coastline. Another few inches of snow will be
possible for the Western Interior east of the Yukon River from
then through Friday morning. Higher amounts will be possible in
the Kuskokwim River Valley.
- Highs in the upper 20s with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are
expected for St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs
cool from the mid 20s today into the teens by Friday, with lows
falling from the high teens into the single digits. The West
Coast will see highs in mid/upper 20s and lows in the low
20s/high teens.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Easterly winds have diminished across all but the easternmost
parts of the Arctic coast, where they are gusting to under 40
mph. They will strengthen a bit on Thursday and combine with
falling snow, which may yield some blowing snow with restricted
visibilities.
- Through Wednesday morning, light snow of up to a couple inches
will be possible over the Central North Slope. An additional few
inches of snow, perhaps more with high snow ratios, will be
possible over the western two-thirds of the North Slope from
Wednesday through Saturday.
- Cloudy skies will finally see some breaks over the eastern North
Slope today, which will help drop highs into the teens and
single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast and
lows into the single digits or lower from tonight into late
week. Portions of the Arctic plains could have highs below zero
by the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Troughing once again persists over Western Alaska, with the center
of a ~520 dm upper low over the Lower Yukon and Kuskokwim River
Valleys. Showery conditions will prevail across the Bering and
Chukchi Seas today, with movement switching to out of the north as
a low passes through the Bering to the southwest and cold high
pressure over Russia strengthens. A few inches of snow will fall
through Wednesday night / early Thursday morning across most of
the Western Interior and West Coast with a wave moving through the
area from the south.
While the winds on the Arctic coast have weakened everywhere
except Barter Island and are expected to fall of there too today,
the pressure gradient south of the Arctic high will tighten late
this week and could bring low-end gale conditions to the area,
which could combine with falling snow to yield low visibilities.
Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave moving along the east
side of the longwave trough with shoot to the north/northwest
across the Central/Eastern Interior and bring from a few to
several inches of snow to the area. There is still decent model
disagreement on prognosis for exact totals, in part due to the
movement of the trough and associated moisture. For the 06Z GFS
solution, the trough moves in a more south-to north orientation,
leaving the Middle Tanana Valley mostly dry but bringing light
snow to the Yukon Flats, Brooks Range, and southeastern Interior.
Thereafter, a secondary shortwave moves off a low in the Gulf and
out of the southeastern Interior northwest toward the Brooks
Range. This drops little snow in the dry spots from earlier but
produces potentially several inches of snow across the south-
central (including the Upper Kuskokwim Valley) and the west-
central Interior, including the eastern Norton Sound coast. The
00Z GEM has a similar track of the first shortwave to the 06Z GFS
and is thus similarly but not quite as dry across Fairbanks and
vicinity, but it is much moister with the second round of snow,
with a far more southeast-to-northwest track, dropping a few
inches in the GFS`s dry spots while also coating the Brooks Range
and North Slope. The 00Z ECMWF has the longwave trough a bit
farther east and when it loops the 1st shortwave north along the
Canadian border, it draws in much more moisture and leaving at
least an inch of snow across most of the Interior. It also follows
a similar track to the GEM with the second shortwave/round of
snow and thus yields the most prolific solution for broad snow
totals through the weekend, especially for the Western Yukon
Flats.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area
and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.
&&
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
During the extended time frame, conditions still look generally
unsettled across the Bering Sea, with most models bringing a
strong low into the Western Bering Sea Saturday but dipping it to
the south or weakening it in place by Monday. It could bring a
period of offshore winds and some snow or rain to the West Coast
with a leading front but otherwise seems likely to remain well
offshore. Additional storms may follow, although there is no
indication of any impactful coastal storms in Western Alaska at
the current time. Inland this weekend, following the first round
of snow on Wednesday night/Thursday, up to a few inches of
additional snow in the Interior is possible. This should generally
shift north and could bring similar totals to the North Slope.
With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, what snow falls will
likely be light and fairly dry. There may be a potent shot for
snowfall along the eastern border on Monday, although uncertainty
is low at this point.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815-859-860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
DS
041
FXAK68 PAFC 041350
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...
The upper level trough that extends from Norton Sound
southeastward over the southern Kenai Peninsula and into the Gulf
remains the main weather feature for today and tomorrow across
Southcentral. The current position of this trough can be seen on
GOES-18 satellite imagery stretching from near Homer and
northwestward early this morning. This is bringing in generally
disorganized snow showers to the north and east of the trough. For
the past two days, models keep trying to find a stronger wave to
develop more organized showers which has largely just meant that
each model and successive model run has different track and
timing for their solutions. Other than the main trough axis, the
only discernible weak wave that can be seen on satellite early
this morning is over the northeastern portion of Prince William
Sound and stretching toward the Talkeetna Mountains. This pattern
which has been around for the past few days will be changing as a
stronger low (currently centered near 50N 143W) moves into the
southeastern Gulf on Wednesday with a leading inverted trough
producing gale-forece winds into the central Gulf. This change in
pattern looks likely to bring clearing skies for the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage and the Mat-Su region Wednesday before
getting cloudy again by Wednesday night. Farther east, the new
trough will bring in rain to eastern Prince William Sound with
snow in the southern Copper River Basin.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...
An upper level trough axis continues to slowly drift across
Southwest this morning, still moving slowly but steadily east. A
band of snow along a deformation axis out ahead of the trough has
also progressed northeast compared to yesterday, now pushing
closer to the western Alaska Range near Lime Village. West of the
trough, dry conditions have returned to most of Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta. Low stratus and areas of dense fog have
formed across much of the Kuskokwim Delta as stagnant air and
otherwise clear skies have allowed the surface to radiate out
overnight. In fact, the Bethel observed sounding from this morning
shows a very shallow and extremely sharp temperature inversion
from the surface to about 500 ft, with areas of dense fog
evidently trapped in this very stable, saturated layer. Out west,
a gale force low is entering the western Bering Sea, with the main
surface center now skirting to the north of the central
Aleutians. The strongest winds have moved in on the southern side
of this low, mainly over and around the western Aleutians.
Observed winds with this system have looked a little less
impressive compared to some earlier signals, and the wind forecast
has accordingly been nudged down from Storm force to high-end
gale force across the southwest corner of the Bering Sea for
today.
In terms of the outlook beyond this morning, the forecast is
looking very on track with little change to the short term
outlook. The Bering low will begin to slide southeast through this
evening, crossing from the Bering to Pacific side west of Nikolski
later this evening. As it does so, the corridor of trailing
westerly gales will spread east into the central Aleutians through
tonight. On Wednesday the low will continue to make an exit south
into the North Pacific, allowing winds to rapidly drop off and
turn more northerly along the Aleutian Chain and much of the
eastern Bering/AKPen regions. Steady rain or rain-snow mix will
give way to scattered showers along the Aleutians from Wednesday
to Thursday as a narrow ridge axis builds back into the center of
the Bering. Meanwhile, a weak front associated with a Kamchatka
low will send another round of mostly rain showers and westerly
winds up to 25 kts into the western Bering and Aleutians on
Thursday.
Across Southwest, the outlook remains a good bit calmer, with any
precipitation chances staying on the lighter side for the next few
days. The best chance for another round of light snow will be out
ahead of an upper level low currently centered near Norton Sound
that will wobble south into the Kuskokwim Delta and then over
Bristol Bay between Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture closer to
the surface near this system looks to stay fairly limited, but
there may be just enough to support areas of light snow moving
into mainly southern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta as the low
brushes past, especially over the Kuskokwim Mountains where
increasing northerly flow begins to upslope into higher terrain
through Thursday. Northerly winds will also increase markedly as
a tight northwest to southeast pressure gradient sets up between a
strong low moving into the Gulf and the ridge axis out in the
central Bering. The strongest winds will develop towards the
Alaska Peninsula, where winds will be aided by both gap
enhancement and cold advection. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph or higher
will be likely along and south of the AKPen as the stronger winds
materialize in earnest during the day on Thursday.
-AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Slight change from previous discussion... A fairly stagnant
weather pattern continues for the long term forecast period as a
blocking upper level ridge over Canada keeps the mean trough axis
over western mainland Alaska. Temperatures will gradually cool
with northerly flow aloft, especially over Southwest Alaska.
Surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska will bring in rounds of
precipitation to Southcentral, but the majority of accumulation
will stay coastal. Gap winds on the backside of the Gulf lows will
increase through the Alaska Peninsula Thursday and Friday while
the rest of Southwest stays relatively quiet.
There are signals of a strong low pressure system sweeping a
front across the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend
and into early next week. Enhanced rain and gale to storm force
wind gusts are possible as the front moves over the region, but
the exact storm track as it moves east is uncertain at this time.
This is something we will continue to keep an eye on going as the
week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Mostly VFR conditions with light winds are expected. A weak
shortwave moving overhead today may produce some light snow showers
and temporary MVFR conditions, but it looks less likely that there
will be anything but VFR even with a few snow showers around.
&&
$$
859
FXAK67 PAJK 041544
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
644 AM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A low enters the gulf today bringing gales to the southern gulf
and increasing winds across the panhandle.
- First wave of precipitation moves S to N across the panhandle
today, and falling apart over the central panhandle. More
organized front moves in by tomorrow morning.
- An active week continues as multiple low pressure systems move
into the gulf sending fronts over the panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A gale force low continues to move northward into
the Gulf, with the first wave of precipitation moving across the
panhandle today. This first weak wave is currently over the
southern panhandle, quickly moving northward this morning through
this afternoon where it will begin to shear apart over the central
panhandle. The highest PoPs into tonight will be just along the
coast and over Icy Strait corridor, before the wave moves westward
offshore, dragging the precipitation chances to linger most along
the outer coast and offshore by later tonight. There will be a
break in between waves by tomorrow morning as this one breaks
down and moves out, with some of the central and northern
panhandle not seeing precipitation chances increase again until
tomorrow afternoon when the next more organized front pushes in
from the south. The southern panhandle will see a break in the
rain for this afternoon after the first wave passes, this break
lasting until early tomorrow morning as the front moves in.
Some increased NE winds coming out of Taku Inlet this evening
through tomorrow, and potential for mountain wave action tonight
and again tomorrow morning based on HI RES models and mountain
wave conditions for the downtown Juneau and Gastineau Channel
area down to Thane, with HI RES guidance showing 20-25 kt gusts
between 03 and 09z tonight and 25-30kt gusts for tomorrow morning.
Between the high res models, seeing a 50-60% probability of wind
gusts greater than 45 mph downtown tomorrow morning. The mountain
wave guidance shows Favorable conditions in these time frames,
with the synoptic scale showing a critical layer at 500 mb with
some wind shear, soundings for Juneau showing an inversion and
strong stability up to around 750 mb, and cross barrier flow at
925 mb of 30-35 kt NE winds, stronger for the tomorrow morning
period. Biggest forecast challenge for the potential for mountain
wave activity will be if the winds will mix down to the surface or
not, as well as the disparity between the models on the timing and
strength of the strongest gusts.
.LONG TERM...
Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the
panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the
southern gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as the
low begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the gulf,
and high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over the Yukon and
BC, the east to west facing channels will see a more significant
increase in winds. Specifically, the north and central inner
channels will see increased winds to 25 to 30 kts out of the north
and east, dependent on the channel orientation. This pressure
gradient will also create easterly winds across the Coastal Mountain
Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind strengths
near Juneau and Taku Inlet. Although these winds will not be the
strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 30 to 40% chance of seeing
gusts up to 40 mph early Wednesday morning. Other inside waters are
likely to experience fresh to strong breezes of northerly 15 to 25
kts as the low moves north.
After Wednesday, winds slightly decrease across the panhandle
through Thursday. An active weather week still remains in place as
the low in the gulf continues to send shortwaves across the
panhandle. Times of moderate to heavy rain are likely on Thursday
and Friday, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.
To end the week, another low begins to move north into the gulf
Saturday into Sunday. The movement of this low is assisted by an
upper level jet that moves over the southern panhandle Saturday into
Sunday. There is still uncertainty on the strength and position of
this low, but both ensembles and deterministic models show the low
moving into the eastern gulf coast Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION.../ through Wednesday morning/
General VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this morning
with CIGS AoA 3500ft and visibilities greater than 6SM as a weak
front pushes across the panhandle. Lone outsider is Juneau this
morning, with clearing skies for a few hours tonight has reduced
down to LIFR with CIGS around 200ft and intermittent visibilities
down to 1/2 sm. For northern panhandle TAF sites along and north
of the Icy Strait corridor, anticipating predominate VFR
conditions to prevail through the afternoon as a front pushes off
the coast, leading to off shore flow and clearing skies. For
southern panhandle TAF sites, VFR to MVFR flight conditions
through the afternoon with ceilings AoB 5000ft, reducing down to
around 2500ft intermittently as front passes over.
Winds should generally remain 10kts or less through the
afternoon, reaching up to 15kts at Sitka with isolated gusts up to
25kts. No significant LLWS concerns, however, will see broad E to
SE-ly flow aloft around 2000ft near 35kts persisting over the
southern inner channels through Tuesday, increasing up to 45kts
SE-ly just off- shore over the Eastern Gulf.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Easterly winds increasing throughout the day to
20-30 kt along the coast and eastern Gulf by midday with increased
winds coming out from Cross Sound, and gale force (35-40 kt)
winds moving into the southern outside waters by tonight as the
low moves into the Gulf. 7 to 10 ft seas building to 12 to 15 ft
along the nearshore waters and 15 to 22 ft further offshore in the
southern Gulf. SW swell becoming SE swell moving into the southern
Gulf tonight.
Inner Channels: Winds predominantly below 15 kt across the inner
channels will begin to increase this morning as the low approaches
the panhandle. Near the ocean entrances including Southern Chatham
Strait near Cape Decision, Cross Sound, and southern Clarence
Strait will continue to see 20 kt easterlies today increasing to
25 kt later tonight. Gradual increase in northerly winds in
Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, out of Taku Inlet, and down north Chatham
Strait from 10-15 kt this morning becoming 20-30 kt tonight. The
strongest winds as this system impacts the panhandle will be along
the N-S channels in the central and northern panhandle as the
northerly winds strengthen from a tightening N-S gradient, while
winds in the southern panhandle from Sumner Strait southward will
primarily see easterly winds with the strongest 15-20 kt winds
expected to be coming out of NE oriented inlets this evening
through tonight.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>033-036-641>644-651-
652-663-664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino
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