Red Flag Warnings/Watches Map | Text Products | Spot Forecast Request | Forecast Discussion | Operating Plan
887
FXAK69 PAFG 142345
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow across the Interior will slowly taper off through
Saturday night as a front pushes north. Additional snowfall
between 0.5 and 1 inches expected along the Middle Tanana
Valley with 1 to 3 inches towards the northern half of the
Interior and south slopes of the Brooks Range.
- Elevated wind speeds over the White Mountains and Dalton
Highway Summits may allow for some blowing snow through late
Saturday night.
- Mostly quiet weather for the eastern Interior on Sunday,
remaining breezy in the higher terrain. Some snow showers
remain for areas north and west of Fairbanks.
- A few rounds of light snow moving from southeast to northwest
are possible early next week. Some light snow accumulations
are possible for most of the Interior Monday and Tuesday.
- Temperatures are expected to remain consistent through the end
of next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered snow showers continue across the West Coast into the
start of next week. Majority of the snowfall will be from the
Seward Peninsula north through Sunday night, then over the
Western Interior on Monday.
- Snow accumulations between 2 to 5 inches likely north of
McGrath to the Brooks Range and Kotzebue through Monday
afternoon. The higher terrain could see more accumulation.
- A low arriving mid next week could bring with it chances of
snow and wind for the YK Delta Coast and Southwest Interior.
- Temperatures remain consistent through the first half of next
week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Blowing snow and blizzard conditions persist on the Arctic
Coast from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through the rest of the
weekend.
- Wind speeds will continue to increase throughout the day
Saturday with gusts between 50 and 60 mph expected from
Utqiagvik to Kaktovik, strongest near Deadhorse Saturday
evening through Sunday.
- Wind weakens into early next week, but remain near 30-50 mph,
strongest near Kaktovik. Blowing snow likely to persist into
next week across the Northern and Eastern Arctic Coast.
- Light snow likely in the Brooks Range this weekend, most of it
falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Another round
of light snow expected Monday and Tuesday for the Western
Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast.
* Around 2 to 4 inches through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change to the overall forecast in the short term. The
frontal system moving across the Interior has provided
accumulations between 1 and 3 inches across the Interior,
slightly higher than models anticipated. Current satellite
imagery shows a low associated with an upper-level shortwave
spinning over Central Alaska. With it, the associated front is
expected to continue progressing north, allowing conditions to
clear across the Interior by Saturday night as southerly flow
sets up once again.
The shortwave will is expected to move northwest over the
Kotzebue Sound as it tries to get wrapped into a 500 decameter
low that has become situated over Siberia. As the shortwave
continues to push northwest, a weak surface low will develop off
the coast of the Lisburne Peninsula by early Sunday morning.
This will help keep the strong pressure gradient in place over
the Arctic Coast through the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a pair of lows will work their way into the Gulf of
Alaska by Sunday afternoon. One moving east across the Aleutians
and the other moving north/northwest along the Alaska panhandle.
This will continue to support broad "troughiness" across much of
the state. In addition, weak bands of energy are expected to
move across Central Alaska into the start of next week. This
will also pivot the southerly flow across the Interior into
easterly flow, which will allow for a better chance of snow.
With the atmosphere already saturated from the previous system,
it won`t take much to get additional snowfall as it moves
overhead. Models are showing the low moving across the Aleutians
to become the "main" low as it will briefly enter the left exit
region of a 300mb jet, which will allow it to slightly
strengthen. The energy from the other low will get wrapped into
the Interior Monday night into Tuesday, moving north toward the
Central Brooks Range. One caveat to the northerly progression of
this energy is the development of an upper level ridge over the
Beaufort Sea as there is still a bit of disagreement on strength
and positioning.
By the mid-week, attention turns to a much stronger low moving
into the Central Bering. This has the potential to bring warmer
temperatures and mixed precipitation to parts of the YK Delta.
How the high over the Beaufort Sea manifests, will determine
how far north it is able to push, which then could lead to low-
end coastal concerns. More on this in the Extended and Coastal
sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As, previously mentioned, the primary concern in the extended
forecast period is the low in the Bering Sea and the Uncertainty of
its track through the rest of next week. Models have come into
better agreement on a more northward path along the West Coast, but
there are still many moving parts that are making exact impacts hard
to predict. A trough in the Gulf of Alaska is being squeezed between
a ridge coming in from the Pacific and a ridge over the Yukon. Where
that energy goes has an impact on the strength of a ridge over
eastern Alaska and the strength of that ridge will influence the
path of the low in the Bering as well as the trajectory of that
moisture into Alaska. Another important feature is high pressure
over the Beaufort Sea. This has been acting as a block for systems
coming up into the Bering and steering them back south into the Gulf
of Alaska. However, this high looks to be shifting east in the
latest model runs, but exactly how quickly it gets of the way
changes whether the low stalls over the West Coast or continues
north.
Our main concern with this system is strong winds and minor coastal
impacts. Winds are projected to turn southerly to southeasterly
across the YK Delta on Wednesday, most likely limiting onshore winds
and coastal impacts to Hooper Bay. As the low creeps north on
Thursday we will likely see winds shift to the southwest in the YK
Delta, increasing onshore flow. We should also see strong southerly
winds into the southern Seward Peninsula, resulting in potential for
minor coastal impacts there as well. Strong southerly gap winds
through the Alaska Range passes will likely peak Wednesday afternoon
before subsiding.
Precipitation amounts vary greatly between the GFS with its strong
er ridge and plume of moisture pointed more directly into Western
Alaska, and the ECMWF where that moisture is directed into
Southcentral Alaska instead. At times, precipitation in southern
areas of the west coast may be rain or a rain/snow mix.
Past thursday, the low looks to rapidly weaken over the Norton Sound
area. Winds and precipitation will weaken as well, but light showers
and gusty conditions should continue across the West Coast through
the rest of the week.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential...
Models are in better agreement on a northward track for a system
coming into the Bering on Tuesday. Strong southeast winds in the
Norton Sound and the YK Delta through Wednesday afternoon may cause
high surf, beach erosion, and potentially minor coastal flooding.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ803.
Blizzard Warning until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ804-805.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ809.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for
AKZ812-832-834.
MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812>815-
859>861.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812-858-859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ812.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ813-
814.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for
PKZ813>815-858>860.
Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ813.
Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ814-815-860.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ857.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Sunday for
PKZ857.
Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ858.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Sunday for
PKZ859.
Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Key Messages....Twombly
Short Term......Twombly
Long Term.......Troyke
Coastal.........Troyke
442
FXAK68 PAFC 150134
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A frontal system is still on track to bring moderate to heavy snow
followed by a wintry mix to Prince William Sound, Anchorage/Eagle
River, and the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon through early
Monday. Snow is expected to be the primary precipitation type
through Sunday night, though areas along Prince William Sound,
such as Portage and Whittier, and coastal areas of the eastern
Kenai Peninsula will transition to rain/snow or all rain by late
Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain remains a possibility for areas
along the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Sunday night as
the warmer air aloft reaches Cook Inlet. Uncertainty remains in
how much temperatures along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass
to Primrose warm as the warmer air aloft moves in. As such, there
is a low to medium chance (30-40%) that some areas along the road
see freezing rain late Sunday night before a changeover to rain
sometime Monday morning. See current Winter Weather Advisories for
additional details.
By Monday morning, uncertainty grows regarding whether this system
lingers over the southern Kenai Peninsula or begins to lift back
northward. Currently, the likely (60-70%) scenario is for
precipitation to lift back to the north as light wintry mix,
based on most guidance. The GFS is the one model stalling the
front farther south.
KM/TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
A low is currently moving through the Bering, allowing for small
craft winds across the Aleutians. Its front is bringing rain/snow
to the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. The low slowly drifts southeastward through Monday,
turning winds southerly and bringing cold air advection. This cold
air advection and northerly flow will allow for gusty gap winds
out of bays and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula.
By Monday afternoon, a large, strong low pressure system will
move in from the west. This low brings very strong storm force and
potentially hurricane force winds to the Shemya and Adak region by
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The low`s front will push
eastward and bring storm force winds to the Pribilof Islands by
late Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, the low moves
further northeastward into the Bering and brings gale to storm
force winds to most of the Aleutians. Due to the threat of gusty
winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for Shemya, Adak and
Atka, and the Pribilof Islands starting early Tuesday morning/late
Monday night and lasting through Tuesday afternoon. The low`s
front reaches the Southwest Mainland at this time as well,
bringing southeast gale force winds to the coastline. These winds
are not a favorable direction for coastal flooding in the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, but elevated water levels may be possible.
Precipitation will likely begin as snowfall for Southwest Alaska
Tuesday afternoon when the front pushes onshore. Southerly flow
will bring warmer air into the area, transitioning snowfall to
rain/snow or rain by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
The model guidance suggests an active pattern across southern
Alaska through the extended period, with a series of strong North
Pacific lows and associated upper-level trough influencing the
region.
A broad upper-level trough remains positioned over the Bering Sea
and western Alaska Wednesday, while strong surface low tracks
across the North Pacific. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue
to transport moisture toward southern Alaska, maintaining
opportunities for precipitation across coastal areas and the
higher terrain. Snow may be favored inland and at higher
elevations, with precipitation type along the coast dependent on
temperatures and the extent of warmer air moving northward.
By Thursday, guidance indicates continued troughing over western
Alaska, with additional shortwave energy rotating through the
broader circulation. This will maintain an unsettled pattern,
with periods of precipitation possible as disturbances move
across the region. The placement and strength of individual
shortwaves will determine where the more organized precipitation
develops.
Heading into Friday and Saturday, the models suggest another
strong low developing over the North Pacific and tracking toward
the Gulf of Alaska. This system could bring another round of
precipitation and gusty winds to portions of Southcentral,
particularly along the Gulf Coast. Snow is favored across inland
locations and higher elevations, while coastal locations could see
a mix of rain and snow depending on the track of the low and
associated warm air advection.
Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period as
guidance differs on the placement, timing, and intensity of the
approaching low. These difference will have implications for
precipitation amounts, snow levels, and wind speeds across
Southcentral.
-LM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through today and
tonight. Fog and low stratus from earlier today has largely
dissipated, with conditions likely (>70% chance) to remain VFR
through early evening.
Tonight however, a weather system will approach from the east.
The forecast remains on track with snow spilling into Anchorage
by Sunday morning. Expect MVFR conditions Sunday morning with IFR
possible within bursts of heavier snow. While there is moderate
confidence for the onset of snow, there is low confidence in
determining the time periods for the heaviest snow rates/intensity
and for when the snow should taper off Sunday night. As warm air
steadily moves in for the latter half of Sunday, there is a 10
percent chance that any lingering snow late Sunday night will
transition to rain and potentially freeze on untreated surfaces.
&&
$$
627
FXAK67 PAJK 142356
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Winds begin to pick up through the evening across the southern
panhandle ahead of a front associated with a 960mb low moving
north in the gulf, bringing rain through the weekend.
- Showers expected to prevail across the north through Sunday
before a secondary front associated with the low brings rain
Sunday night.
- Active pattern continues Monday with another short wave
expected to bring rain across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...Winds across the southern
panhandle have begun to increase with gusts reaching 30-35mph
ahead of tonight`s front. Southernmost communities have already
begun to see rain with the heaviest rain rates expected late
Saturday night. This initial front is not expected to greatly
impact communities north of Frederick Sound due to the orientation
and track of the associated low pressure system. Overall,
conditions could diminish briefly early Sunday morning, but a
secondary stronger front is expected to move into the southern
panhandle by noon on Sunday, maintaining elevated winds and
periods of heavier rain. Rain amounts through Sunday and Monday
are expected to total between 2-3 inches at a given location
across the south.
Showery conditions are expected to prevail across the central and
northern panhandle through Sunday ahead of the stronger front.
Overall chance for rain showers is expected to increase overnight
as residual energy from the front clipping the southern panhandle
moves north, but is likely to move through the area quickly with
clearing beginning again Sunday morning. The secondary front is
expected to bring rain to the central and northern panhandle by
9pm Sunday night with gusty winds up to 20-30mph. Rain totals for
Sunday and Monday are expected to be less than across the south,
totaling between 1-2 inches for a given location.
Another shortwave is expected to move across the panhandle during
the day Monday with little to no break between fronts. Rain and
gusty winds are likely to continue through the day Monday, but
not be as impactful as the previous fronts discussed.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...The active pattern
continues into next week, with the system impacting the panhandle
during the weekend continuing to meander northwestward towards
Prince William Sound and weaken by Monday morning. Multiple
shortwaves will push across the Gulf Monday through Tuesday,
keeping precipitation and elevated winds in the forecast with each
wave passing through.
Some uncertainty in the forecast remains for midweek, however, on
the synoptic setup and potential for a brief pattern change with
snow going into the end of the week, with some model guidance
suggesting high pressure building in the Gulf and over the
panhandle Wednesday alongside a brief cooling and drying trend
ahead of the next system. This solution would bring snow levels
down across the northern panhandle and along the coastal range
Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with snow levels down to
1000 ft or less, and bringing potential for snow at sea level for
the northern panhandle Thursday as the next system moves into the
area. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this, as
some guidance suggests warmer air and moisture with the next
system moving in much sooner and not allowing as long of a period
for cooling temperatures or lowering snow levels, with a much
weaker ridge not holding the system back. Other guidance shows
this ridge being strong enough to keep precipitation out of the
area by the end of the week, though at this time this looks to be
an outlier compared to other solutions. It will be something to
watch as confidence increases in a specific solution, however
there is a notable probability in seeing some snow or snow mixing
in with rain at sea levels for Skagway and Haines, potentially
down to Icy Strait Corridor, into the end of the week depending on
how favorable the setup is for snow.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers continue this afternoon across portions of the
northern panhandle while the next low to affect the area moves
closer to Haida Gwaii. Most of the showers across the northern
panhandle have remained VFR with the exception of Gustavus where
conditions have dropped down to LIFR this afternoon. Current
thinking is that this low cloud deck will lift and conditions should
improve with moderate confidence for this improvement. Farther
south, VFR and MVFR conditions have been varied depending on the
location. Current thinking is that with the low moving closing and
increasing winds for the southern sites, ceilings should see some
improvement. But with the wind and rain, conditions still might not
improve much along with the increasing threat for LLWS during this
time. Most of the LLWS looks to remain from around Sitka and Angoon
south while places such as Juneau northward will stay out of any
significant LLWS for the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: A low moving into the southeast Gulf of Alaska will curve
to the NNW and into the northern Gulf of alaska the closest it
gets to the panhandle areas will be early Sunday morning. Looking
for 35 to 40 kt winds to move over the southeast coastal waters
and into the southern offshore water sections of the central gulf.
Seas building up to 20 to 25 ft with winds and swell moving into
the region. Northern coastal zones will be seeing increasing
speeds to 25 to 30 kts on Sunday.
Inside: Northerly winds over the northern inner channels ahead of
the incoming system. Winds to 25 kt until the switch over after
Frontal Passage. The southern panhandle will be dealing with the
SE and south winds increasing 40 kt winds from the canadian water
past Haida Gwaii and through Hecate Strait and then Dixon entrance
to finally Chatham Strait on Sunday... 35 to 40 kt winds, with
higher gusts possible. Some of the gustier winds will move past
Sumner Strait and then to Frederick Sound and through Chatham
strait northward. Right now think Gale force winds limited to
Clarence Strait but could get to Southern Chatham however do not
carry it there just yet. Small Crafts to spread north through
Sunday as the front move though the panhandle area.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday for
AKZ328.
Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ330-
332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644-
651-652-664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...Bezenek
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
