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Alaska Area Forecast Discussions

FXAK69 PAFG 301024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 AM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2023

A low continues to weaken over Norton Sound as the associated
front continues to push inland with snow and blowing snow along
the West Coast and snow falling through this afternoon in the
Western Interior. The front will continue to weaken as it pushes
into the Central Interior this afternoon and stalls. Storm total
snow fall will be in the 4 to 6 inch range along the Seward
Peninsula and Western Interior south of Galena and generally 1 to
3 inches over the Central Interior. A low in the Northeastern Gulf
of Alaska will push another round of snow into the southeast
Interior where 2 to 4 inches is expected to fall through Saturday.
Winds will increase this afternoon along the eastern Arctic Coast
with visibilities expected to drop to one half mile or less at
times into Friday morning.



Models...The 30/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and 00z upper air observations and verified well
against the 06z surface analysis. Models spread both between model
families and from run to run is minimal in the short and mid
range and is reasonable well into the long range. Temperatures
over northern Alaska are expected to remain near normal into the
weekend and nudge above normal into next week. A persistent long
wave trough over Northern Alaska will provide unsettled weather
into the weekend and early next week.

Aloft...At 500 hpa an upper level long wave trough with an
anchoring 515 dam low over Eastern Siberia will continue to dig
south and east and will erode the high pressure ridge over
Eastern Alaska and the Yukon further to the east into the weekend.
Weak ridging will build into Southwest Alaska on Saturday and
Sunday ahead of a strong shortwave diving south and east over the
Northwest Coast of Alaska on Saturday and pushing east over the
Central Arctic Coast on Sunday. The strong shortwave weakens and
moves north and east out over the Beaufort Sea as ridging builds
back north and east over Northern Alaska Sunday and Monday. The
high pressure ridge continues to build north and east over the
Central and Eastern Interior as troughing again develops over the
Bering Sea and West Coast.

On the surface...A 997 mb low centered over Norton Sound will
continue to weaken and push east today and dissipating over the
Western Interior this evening. A front associated with the low
will continue to push to east into the Central Interior today.
Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow remain in
effect this morning and into the afternoon for many areas south of
Galena. Snowfall diminishes to around 1 to 3 inches as the
dissipating front pushes into the Central Interior this afternoon
and evening and stalls in place into saturday. A 986 mb low in
the northern Gulf of Alaska will continue to push north and east
wrapping a weak front and additional moisture into the Southeast
Interior where generally 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected to fall
through Saturday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally tranquil weather with a
mix of clouds and flurries. Winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast
will increase today with gusts to 55 mph developing near Kaktovik
by late this afternoon and will continue into Friday morning. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for low visibilities in
blowing snow for this area. Otherwise in the inland areas expect
winds variable to 10 mph, and in the Brooks Range south winds 15
mph. High temperatures today will be in the upper single digits
above to teens above. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night
will be mainly in the single digits above and below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow will continue this morning
and begin to diminish this afternoon and evening from northwest to
southeast as the snow moves into the Central Interior. Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect until noon and early evening
mainly to the south of Galena. Storm total snowfall is generally
expected to be between 4 and 6 inches. Higher amounts are possible
on the west and southwest facing slopes, and in the Nulato Hills.
Expect areas of blowing and drifting snow and fog with visibilities
reduced to one half mile or less at times. Winds along the coast
are generally from the east to northeast at 10 to 25 mph and 5 to
15 mph inland. High temperatures today will be in the 20s to mid
30s above. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
single digits above to around 20 above.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds today as a
weakening front moves in from the west with increasing chances of
snow this afternoon mainly south of the Yukon River. Expect
generally 1 to 3 inches in from the Yukon River south and east to
near Delta Junction through Saturday with 2 to 4 inches expected
south and east of the Delta Junction Area east to the Canadian
Border. Winds generally be from the northeast to southeast at 5
to 15 mph. High temperatures today will be in the mid teens above
to mid 30s above. Low temperatures tonight will be near zero near
Arctic village with single digits above in the Yukon Flats. Expect
low temperatures tonight in the teens for the remainder of the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low diving out of the
Arctic will move southeast across Kotzebue Sound Saturday night
spreading snow to most of the West Coast, then into the Western
Interior. Heaviest snow will be in the Nulato Hills and as the
snow spreads southeast the Western Alaska Range. The front will
move east across the state Sunday and Monday. A low moving along
the Aleutians Tuesday will send a front into the southwest
mainland with a mix of precipitation.


AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-212.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213>216.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.


FXAK68 PAFC 301301

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2023


A negatively tilted trough extends from Siberia, through Southwest
Alaska, and into the southwestern Gulf of Alaska. At the base of
this trough is a strong shortwave around Kodiak Island which
drifts eastward this morning. The associated surface low, also
drifting eastward towards the central Gulf of Alaska, is helping
to pull moisture northward into the north Gulf coast and interior
Southcentral Alaska. The result is a continuation of off-and-on
showery and light precipitation over Southcentral, but especially
over Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf coast.

Out west, weak shortwaves continue moving on-shore into Southwest
Alaska from the Bering Sea as the trough axis moves overhead. The
result is a continuation of relatively low cloud ceilings for the
coast, especially the Kuskokwim Delta coast, while interior
locations such as Sleetmute, Sparrevohn, Aniak, and Iliamna
contend with light snow. Meanwhile, the southern Alaska Peninsula
and eastern Aleutians are under the influence of northwesterly
flow on the backside of the trough over Southwest. These areas
continue to have off-and-on convective and showery precipitation
within the cold air advection coming off the Bering Sea. The
western to central Bering as well as the western and central
Aleutian Chain remain under nearly west-to-east zonal flow this



Guidance remains in fairly good agreement with regards to features
during the short-term period. Guidance, namely the 00z NAM, shifted
southward (the GFS solution) with the surface low in the Gulf for
this morning. As a result, the bulk of heavier precipitation will
remain off-shore with only light precipitation making it inland,
even for the coastal locations of Southcentral. Guidance continues
to be in agreement on this low drifting slowly eastward through
the central Gulf and eventually southeastward towards the Pan
Handle towards Saturday night as it weakens.

Out west, guidance continues to be in agreement on a northeast
Bering Sea low moving into the Yukon Delta Thursday afternoon
while weakening, then south and southeast into the Kuskokwim
Delta Thursday night. This will linger light snow in the
lower/middle Kuskokwim Valley, the Kuskokwim Delta, and especially
along the northwest facing slopes of Kilbuck and Kuskokwim
Mountains through Friday night. Guidance also continues to hone in
on a North Pacific low and its front lifting northward towards the
western Bering as well as the western and central Aleutian Chain.
Guidance has trended further north with this low towards the GFS.
Most guidance has the system a little southeast of Shemya by
Friday night, while the 00z Canadian guidance is the furthest
south in the North Pacific, but not far off of other guidance. The
forecast challenge will continue to be honing in on precipitation
amounts. There are hints that the central to eastern Aleutian
Chain could see the most enhanced precipitation due to being in
favorable southerly to southwesterly throughout most of the
atmosphere for an extended period of time at the end of the



PANC...VFR conditions with possible MVFR ceilings will persist
through the morning as light snow lingers through the morning
hours. There may even be some IFR ceilings as low-level moisture
lingers with light winds. Snow tapers off during the afternoon
hours. However, low-level moisture could linger longer to procure
a low stratus deck and thus, a potential to linger MVFR ceilings
from this afternoon into the evening hours. Expect light northerly
winds to continue through this morning and become light and
variable through this afternoon and evening.


Lingering precipitation across Southcentral will remain light as
the low over the Gulf begins to trek east. Overall precipitation
will consequently decrease gradually from west to east. Weak cold
air advection across the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island will
allow for breezy conditions over Kodiak Island and gales over the
water through the end of this week. Northerly flow will also
prevail across Southcentral through the end of the week. Outflow
winds through terrain gaps will gradually increase Friday night
through Saturday as a dry shortwave off a polar low moves through
and a ridge builds behind. For the end of the weekend, warmer air
returns with quieter weather as a brief ridge moves into Southcentral
and winds taper off.



Southwest Alaska will remain under an upper trough today and
tomorrow. Areas of light snow will continue from the Kuskokwim
Delta into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Minimal accumulations are
anticipated, with the lower elevations only seeing a dusting to an
inch through early Friday. Across the Kuskokwim Mountains, snow
amounts of 4 to 8 inches will be possible; while further east,
the great town of Sparrevohn could see around 4 inches.
Temperatures will remain mild while beneath the upper trough.
Clearing is expected by the start of the weekend as a shortwave
ridge moves across Southwest.



The Bering Sea will remain in a northwesterly flow pattern while
a trough loiters over Southwest Alaska today and tomorrow. This
should promote gusty northwest winds offshore of the Southwest
coast with 30+ knot gusts stretching from Nunivak Island into
Bristol Bay. South of the AKPEN, gale-force gusts are expected to
continue through the morning hours on Friday. A North Pacific low
then lifts into and hangs up over the Western and Central
Aleutians on Friday with widespread shower activity expected. A
plume of Pacific moisture will accompany the low and its front,
with localized areas of heavy rain possible over Atka and Adak.
Models suggest the front will become more progressive by Saturday,
eventually scooting eastward and into the Alaska Peninsula over
the latter half of the weekend. While there are no flooding
concerns, currently, a close eye on the evolution of the front
over the next couple of days will be needed.


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

The pattern remains amplified during the extended period with
upper ridging extending across Southcentral Alaska on Sunday and
gradually transitioning to an upper trough pattern on Wednesday.
The odds tilt in favor of below normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation given the pattern in the extended period.

Closer to the surface, the most significant feature is a low
pressure system moving northeastward across the Gulf on Monday
and Tuesday. This low is likely to bring snow across the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound during that time. Forecast
confidence is low with respect to specifics at this time due to
discrepancies in the exact storm track. No other significant
weather is expected in addition to this aforementioned low.




FXAK67 PAJK 301406

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
606 AM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...The forecast remains largely on track as a gale
force front advances across the gulf and approaches the panhandle.
Cloud cover has already begun to overrun much of SE AK and snow
is being reported at Yakutat. Anticipate gale force winds and
small craft winds across many of the maritime areas, and breezy
conditions across land. Wind directions across parts of the N
panhandle and locations like Lynn Canal could fluctuate at times,
as the pressure gradient force goes up against the surge of WAA
associated with the system, but am confident in elevated seas

Precipitation wise, some areas in the northern third of the
panhandle may start out as snow or a wintry mix as the system
moves in through tomorrow morning and changeover to rain
relatively quickly as the day progresses along with the southerly
warm air advection out ahead of the front. Areas near the Canadian
border crossings should remain in wintry precipitation once it
starts, but amounts should remain light as the atmosphere will
remain drier there. Yakutat has started out as snow but will
likely transition to a rain/snow mix, and then change back over to
a wintry mix or snow for Thursday night. Snow accumulations
should remain below advisory levels, with snow totals between less
than an inch to up to 3 inches in total.

.LONG TERM.../Friday into next week/...The long term forecast was
focused on the aftermath of the next frontal passage. Previous
ideas of rain turning to showers, or on/off type rain, seems to be
still holding true.

Friday will start off with mostly rain found around the panhandle,
though some rain and snow is possible in parts of the north. But as
the diurnal heating warms the area up to the low to mid 40s, rain
should become the dominate precip type.

The low pressure center will track SE and out of the gulf Saturday.
This will give decreasing PoPS from north to south through the day
and night. Also, it will be the beginning some outflow winds.

Early evidence in the ensembles and deterministic models show a
quick moving, weak surface low tracking through the gulf on Sunday.
This will bump up the PoPS for showers to the chance-likely
category (briefly).

But once that low exits to the south, outflow winds will really
help to decrease PoPS and increase the sunshine for for Monday
afternoon. After that, the next front is set to move in from the
west on Tue/Wed.

Inner channel marine winds don`t look real strong through the long
term, with most areas seeing wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots at
the start, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots for Sunday, then increasing
to 15 to 20 knots for early next week.

Low temperatures will warm a touch, due to cloud cover and southerly
winds. But once the northerly winds kick back in, lows could dip
back into the 20s for early next week. High temperatures more-or-
less stay steady, in the low 40s through the weekend into next


.AVIATION...Clouds continue to increase across the panhandle this
morning. Ceilings have started to decrease during the overnight and
into the morning hours with some locations reporting MVFR
conditions. These conditions will become more widespread as the
front moves closer to SE AK. Precip will spread across the area
throughout the morning with most places seeing rain, but a mix of
rain and snow or straight snow can not be ruled out either. LLWS
looks to increase during the afternoon and evening as the front
nears the outer coast.


PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
Friday for AKZ322.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>036-053-641>644-651-652-




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