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023
FXAK69 PAFG 022200
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier conditions will ensue for the Interior and West
Coast with many locations seeing high temperatures in the low to
mid 70s through Wednesday. An unseasonably strong arctic low will
cause broad scale troughing by Friday, bringing below normal
temperatures, increased rain chances, and breezy northerly to
westerly winds.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Localized rain showers primarily near the White Mountains are
expected through this evening.
- A pattern change will allow for warmer temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys beginning today
and continuing into Thursday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s through
Thursday.
- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist for inland areas from
today through Thursday until clouds build in later this week.
- Diurnal fog and low clouds for the western coast near Norton
Sound and Kotzebue Sound may persist through Wednesday night.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through today
on the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40 degrees
through Friday.
- More snow moves into the northern Brooks Range Wednesday, with
some rain mixing in during the daytime hours. Accumulations
around an inch with higher amounts at elevation in the Brooks
Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A closed low currently north of the Fairbanks area by around 50
miles continues to move to the east into Canada, driven by a
building upper level ridge near Siberia. The building ridge will
bring broad northwesterly winds and high pressure at the surface
for most of the interior. Lighter winds, warmer temperatures,
particularly on Wednesday and Thursday, and drier conditions are
expected. Over the arctic, a strong upper level low will gradually
move closer to the north slope through early next week, with
troughs digging down over the north slope and interior beginning
on Wednesday. As this first trough digs south on Wednesday, a
broad area of primarily snow looks to set up to the east of
Utqiagvik, moving southeast into the northern Brooks Range. While
not much moisture is expected to be associated with this wave,
areas on the northern portion of the Brooks Range could see 1 to
1.5 inches of snow, with rain mixed in during the daytime period.
Higher elevations of the Brooks Range may see upwards of 4 inches
through Thursday morning. As the trough moves further south over
the Brooks Range, there is some evidence of minor divergence and
CAPE to the south of the Brooks Range. While chances are low, and
are currently not in the ongoing forecast, there is a non zero
chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Along with the chances for snow, tightening pressure gradient is
expected to form between the advancing Arctic low and high
pressure moving back towards the west by Thursday over the Brooks
Range and Kotzebue Sound. As a result, gusts are likely to reach
up to 30 mph in these areas through Friday morning.
Going into the extended, broad troughing is expected to extend
down from the north slope through the weekend and next week,
bringing increased shower and cooler temperatures.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Somewhat quiet fire weather through the rest of this week and
possibly into next week as well. Upper level ridging near Siberia continues
to push eastward into the AOR, increasing surface pressure and
drying out much of the atmosphere. Isolated showers continue in
the forecast, primarily for the White Mountains and possibly Yukon
Flats through this evening, but precipitation is expected to
remain light. High temperatures are expected to maximize in the
70s everywhere except the North Slope on Wednesday, before being
localized to the western and central interior Thursday, with min
RH values between 20 and 30%. Wednesday will see a trough move
down from the Arctic, with the afternoon hours seeing some energy
advecting over the southern slopes of the eastern Brooks Range.
With CAPE around 200 J/kg and slight divergence, could see at
least isolated showers/virga and a very low probability of
thunder.
Winds are expected to be generally light, but are expected to
increase near the Seward Peninsula and Brooks Range Wednesday
night into Thursday. A pattern shift is expected towards the end
of the week and into the weekend as upper- level troughing builds
into the state, leading to the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms returning with cooler temperatures.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. Today and Wednesday look to
be the warmest days with highs in the 30s to near 40 along the
coast and low 50s towards the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures
will then dip back down later in the week to below normal, around
the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for
the northern Brooks Range. Near the Sag River source on the north
Brooks Range, high temperatures could reach the mid 50s through
Wednesday, with snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again,
temperatures look to cool going into the late week but continue to
be above freezing.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period Friday, the overall
pattern is transitioning from high pressure to the west and slight
ridging towards broad troughing as a large low over the Arctic
Ocean moves further south. Under the broad troughing pattern
conditions are expected to cool once more across the region with
highs falling back into the 60s across the Interior and below
freezing along the Arctic Coast. Afternoon showers with the
occasional very isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day.
Winds will become generally calm across most of the Interior with
periods of west/northwesterly winds expected, especially along the
Arctic and Chukchi Sea Coasts. The timing of these periods of
stronger winds will be largely dependent upon the timing and
strength of shortwave features moving through the large Arctic
low. These shortwaves will also influence the strength and
distribution of the heaviest showers as they make their way across
Northern Alaska. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding
the timing and strength of these features, but high confidence in
them occuring early next week. The details of any storms that move
through the region then will therefore remain hazy for now.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&
$$
145
FXAK68 PAFC 021316
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...
The front over the Gulf of Alaska remains stationary this morning,
but is slowly weakening. This front continues to bring rain and
wind to Kodiak Island, though winds should be slowly diminishing
and the rainfall should be less today than the 1.87 inches that
fell over Kodiak airport yesterday (though that still was not a
daily record). The Flood Watch for Kodiak remains in effect
through Wednesday morning. The few river gages that are on Kodiak
Island show steady water levels below action stage from yesterday
evening through the early morning hours.
For the rest of Southcentral Alaska, this same front has brought
cloud cover and some showers overnight. The showers should mostly
be over and the clouds are expected to decrease through the course
of the day. Temperatures today should be notably warmer the next
three days with many areas in the 70s for both Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...
A North Pacific low, well south of the Southern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) continues to spin and weaken today as it slowly drifts
east. Its front, however, will continue to bring the Pacific side
of the AKPEN unsettled weather in the form of showers through much
of today. Steady rain could linger through Chignik and Perryville
for much of the day. The heaviest rain, though, already fell last
evening into last night. Rain over Unalaska/Nikolski this morning
will taper off by this afternoon as the front weakens further
with all rain across the AKPEN tapering off through Wednesday
morning.
A northerly flow/off-shore pattern sets up along the southwestern
mainland Tuesday through Friday between a ridge in the Bering and
the eastward drifting North Pacific low mentioned above. This
will promote a hot and dry weather scenario across the Kuskokwim
Valley and along the Western Alaska Range. Expect highs in the
middle to upper 70s across the Kuskokwim Valley and along the
Western Alaska Range with the warmest readings occurring by Stoney
River. Minimum relative humidities look to range between 25 to 35
percent as well. The driest days being Tuesday and Wednesday. The
one fly in the ointment, from a fire weather perspective, will be
how strong northerly winds can get. It is notoriously challenging
to get winds at or greater than 15 mph from the north across the
southwestern interior. With that, 5 to 10 mph winds are expected
at this time for Tuesday and Wednesday, but trends will have to be
monitored closely. Warm weather continues for Friday as the
Bering ridge begins to weaken and break down for the weekend.
Farther out west, with the ridge persisting, low-stratus also
persists across Shemya and Adak/Atka. As mentioned previously,
rain will continue through the morning across Nikolski/Unalaska in
association with the North Pacific front and taper off by late
morning to early afternoon. Low stratus and misty conditions will
also continue at times through the short-term across the Pribilof
Islands as well.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Looking ahead to the weekend and into early next week, a more
unsettled pattern is expected to re-emerge, with cooler
temperatures and increased chances for precipitation for most of
the state. By Friday, high pressure over the interior will begin
to break down as an upper-level Arctic low sends a series of
shortwave troughs into the mainland. These troughs will continue
dig further and further south, gradually increasing cloud cover
and bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms.
Simultaneously, another North Pacific low is expected to develop
to the south of the Central Aleutians by Saturday and continue
through the Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. However, there
remains quite a bit of model spread regarding the track/intensity
of this system. The GFS has the low strengthening significantly
and remaining close to the coast, which would bring more
widespread impacts the the AKPen and Southcentral. However, this
solution seems to be an outlier, with most other models keeping
the low weaker and farther south. Regardless, the warm, dry
weather in the short-term appears to be transient, so enjoy it
while it lasts!
-CW
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light and
variable winds will turn northerly this morning with a
southwesterly sea-breeze developing this afternoon in conjunction
with daytime heating. Winds go back to light and variable
overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
$$
824
FXAK67 PAJK 022354
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Very warm to hot temperatures this afternoon with sunny skies.
- Slightly cooler but still mild for much of the panhandle on
Wednesday with increasing mid to high level clouds.
- Next front with light rain pushes into southern panhandle later
Wednesday afternoon, then lifting north through the night.
- Cooler with rain showers for the end of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Clear skies and warm temperatures are the story of the
day. Multiple areas across the southern panhandle have had
temperatures reach into the 80s with the central to northern
panhandle reaching into the high 70s. The warmest temperatures have
occurred near Klawock where easterly winds with downsloping helped
to rapidly increase temperatures as day time heating began.
Temperatures will also quickly increase tomorrow, but are not
expected to get as warm as a low moves toward the panhandle
increasing cloud cover. We will start to see clouds move over the
area as early as Wednesday morning, especially across the southern
panhandle. This will help to prevent max temperatures getting as
high as they did today. Higher than average temperatures are still
anticipated over the central to northern panhandle with highs in the
low to mid 70s.
As the low approaches SE AK, it will bring rain back across the
area. The southern panhandle will start to see light rain begin late
tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Rain will then spread
northward with widespread rain by late Wednesday. Rain totals are
likely to remain low, but a few periods of slightly heavier rain
showers may occur. Rain will continue into Thursday, with
continued onshore flow, as the low pressure system weakens and
moves southward.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... Upper level off-shore
flow shifts to on-shore flow through the day Friday as the upper
level low moves south along the coast, out of the area. This then
allows a ridge to take its place over the panhandle, however, both
the magnitude and timing are not conclusive between ensembles.
This has created much uncertainty in the exact timing of any
precipitation for the weekend, but the ridging building over the
panhandle on Friday and Saturday is likely to bring a drying trend
with showers on Friday diminishing through Friday night into
Saturday. Despite the drier conditions, skies are likely to be
cloudier due to the moisture coming off the ocean.
Ensembles indicate a upper level shortwave moving through the
area on Sunday. This energy is likely to bring rain showers back
to the panhandle on Sunday. This energy could also bring increased
winds to the panhandle on Sunday, specifically the southern and
central inner channels and land areas.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Wednesday afternoon/...VFR conditions
expected through most of Wednesday. A front lifting north will
bring lowering cloud decks from PASI over to PAPG and on south on
Wednesday. Rain showers could lower CIGs down to MVFR by late
afternoon for PAPG, PAWG and especially PAKT and PAKW. For TAF
sites further north, just expect increasing high clouds through
Wednesday afternoon. Winds will generally be less than 10kt
through the period. Occasional higher gusts possible during the
afternoon hours across the north Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system
is currently west of our coastal waters, and will move east late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The low is expected to track
near Haida Gwaii, so the highest winds up to 20 kts and waves up to
10 feet will occur across our far southern waters.
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds today have been fairly weak in the
inner channel. A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska
will approach our area increase the winds in east-west channels
(e.g. Cross Sound, Fredrick Sound, and Sumner Strait). The low is
fairly weak, so winds are expected to remain under 15 kts, but may
approach 20 kts and waves of 3 feet as the associated front moves
through. Behind the front, high pressure is expected to set-up, and
lead to generally onshore flow.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...DS/BAS
MARINE...Musall
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