923
FXAK68 PAFC 230107
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex low is moving through the Gulf of Alaska and is
currently near Kodiak Island. Rain is being pushed into Kodiak
and along the coast of Southcentral from shortwaves moving around
the low. These shortwaves near the low are also creating a
coastal ridge over the Chugach Range, allowing for elevated
southeasterly winds (10 to 15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph) in
Palmer, South Anchorage, and the Copper River Basin through
Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will have a 10 to 20% chance of
forming, mostly over the foothills of the the Talkeetna Mountains
and Alaska Range. Southeasterly flow along the coast will allow
for downslope drying on the lee of the mountain ranges, but light
rain showers will still have a 20 to 30% chance of occurring.

By Tuesday, a more robust trough from the low will move across
Southcentral from east to west and reaching well into the Copper
River Basin and Susitna Valley. This wave will produce steadier
rainfall, which will cause moderate to heavy rain over the
northern and western Susitna Valley. Upslope enhancement will
promote higher rainfall amounts farther inland, near the Talkeetna
Mountains and the Alaska Range. Lower elevations (including
Anchorage) will see less rainfall due to downsloping, but the
sheer amount of moisture making it in will allow at least 0.05 to
0.10 inches of rain to fall. The band of moderate to heavy
rainfall will linger over the Susitna Valley through Wednesday.
Between Tuesday and Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall
between Cantwell, through Talkeetna and Skwentna toward the west
Alaska Range. Confidence is higher today, but there is still some
uncertainty regarding how long the band of rain lasts over the
Susitna Valley. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will decrease in
intensity as the low moves more to the east and the strong
shortwave inland dissipates. Additional shortwaves will move
through, but rainfall associated with them will be lighter.
Thursday will see moisture move into the Copper River Basin. This,
combined with continued easterly waves will allow chances (50 to
60%) for showers.

-JAR/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...

The forecast remains largely on track, though there continues to
be lower confidence with the timing and placement of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across Southwest Alaska in the
coming days. Still, the expectation is for thunderstorm activity
to be less vigorous than we`ve seen in the past week, as
increasing cloud cover will likely keep storms weaker. Otherwise,
generally expect a trend towards cloudier skies and breezier and
wetter conditions as lows progress into the region and displace
the ridge over the Bering Sea.

Diving into the details... robust upper level lows approaching
the Western Aleutians/Bering and moving in the Gulf of Alaska (as
well as their attendant surface lows) will bring a trend towards
gloomier conditions. These upper lows will also be a major source
of forecast uncertainty in the coming days, as guidance is showing
poor consistency and poor agreement regarding how these lows
interact with embedded shortwaves and other waves moving through
the upper level flow. The biggest impact of this uncertainty will
be on the convective/thunderstorm forecast, especially as upper
level energy will play a larger role in thunderstorm development
given cloudier skies and limited surface heating. The other major
area of impact will be rain amounts along the Western Alaska Range
as a particularly robust and wet trough moves eastward through
the interior. Right now, the area from Lime Village to Iliamna has
a 40% chance of seeing 0.5 inches of rain or greater from Tuesday
evening through Wednesday afternoon, with near-certain likelihood
over the Alaska Range. Still, models continue to show shifts in
the placement and timing of this feature, which will affect
overall rain amounts.

For Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea, low clouds and fog linger
for another night, but should gradually retreat as two surface
lows approach through tomorrow. Generally expect steady rain along
the Aleutians late Tuesday and Wednesday, with sustained winds
as high as 20-35 kt. How these two surface lows interact and merge
will affect the timing, duration, and intensity of winds and
rain along the front. Fortunately, this low complex looks fairly
middling in terms of strength, so it`ll be more likely to be a
nuisance storm than an overly impactful one.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-term pattern continues to feature an unsettled pattern
across the Southern Mainland. A low pressure system in the Bering
Sea will continue to bring showery conditions across the Central
Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, and Pribilof Islands Friday and
Saturday before the rain moves to the Southern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) for Sunday. A ridge builds in behind this system with
likely low stratus and misty conditions filling in across the
central Bering Sea and Central Aleutians Saturday evening into
Sunday. This ridge and the associated low stratus will move
eastward through Monday across the rest of the Aleutians and
Southern AKPEN while the Western Aleutians and western Bering will
contend with North Pacific fronts.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska will also remain unsettled as a
series of easterly waves moves across the Southern Mainland from
Yukon, Canada and shortwaves lift from the North Pacific, the the
Gulf of Alaska, and over Southcentral Alaska. Most steady
precipitation with these disturbances between Friday and Monday
will look to fall across interior portions of the Southwest Alaska
with scattered rain showers across Southcentral Alaska. The one
challenge with the long-term forecast, with regards to the
interior locations, will be assessing how much instability will be
available. This will determine how much of a threat lightning
strikes could become. Right now, Friday afternoon looks to be the
most unstable day across Southwest Alaska with Sunday afternoon
across the Copper River Basin of Southcentral Alaska.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist. A southeasterly Turnagain
Arm wind will strengthen this afternoon/evening and has a chance
of producing gusts up to 25 kts before diminishing by around 09Z
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Key Message:

Wetting rain chances increase for Tuesday and Wednesday across
interior Southcentral Alaska and interior Southwest Alaska.

Discussion:

A strong easterly to southeasterly shortwave will lift across the
Gulf of Alaska through Monday night and spread wetting rains
beginning Tuesday morning across the Copper River Basin. The
airmass this upper-level disturbance is moving over will be
stable, so lightning should be little threat. Steady wetting rains
will move to the Susitna Valley by late Tuesday morning. Wetting
rains then shift to interior of Southwest Alaska by Tuesday
afternoon to Tuesday evening with areas along the Western Alaska
Range as well as Port Alsworth and northward seeing steady rain.
This steady rain will last across interior Southwest Alaska will
last through Wednesday morning before tapering off. Southeast flow
behind the upper-level disturbance, now over Southwest Alaska by
Wednesday afternoon, will allow for more moisture to wring out
across the Western Susitna Valley along the Alaska Range through
Wednesday evening which will result in more wetting rain for that
area.

&&

$$

338
FXAK67 PAJK 230659
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1059 PM AKDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain return to the northern and central panhandle as
a low lingers in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a series of weak
fronts inland through mid-week.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle
communities through at least Tuesday. Rain chances increase
through Thursday as a stronger system moves out of the N
Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday/...A low pressure system
centered just SE of Kodiak will gradually weaken and move NE,
bringing multiple rounds of precipitation into the panhandle
Monday evening through Tuesday morning. These weak fronts will
bring showers across the northern half of the panhandle, from
Sitka northward, with rainfall totals remaining largely below 0.5
inches in 24 hours. Localized higher rates and rainfall
accumulations are possible due to interactions with terrain as the
fronts push northward, with Juneau having potential to see up to
0.10 inch per hour rates at times tonight.

Shower chances will diminish from S to N into Tuesday, though
some potential will remain along the outer coastline from the
decaying low lingering in the western Gulf. This will be more of a
break however for most of the panhandle. A surface trough will
soon bring more precipitation back to the northern panhandle
overnight into Wednesday, though like the last system, will be a
weak wave of showers that will not bring much in terms of rainfall
totals.

Another system does begin to develop in the N Pacific midweek,
moving in just behind this weak disturbance Wednesday night as it
approaches Haida Gwaii, bringing in more widespread rain chances
across the coastline Wednesday night. For more information on this
next system, read the long term discussion below.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/...A stronger low will
develop in the north Pacific during the week, moving into the
eastern Gulf towards Haida Gwaii by Wednesday night. This system
will bring more widespread rainfall across the panhandle starting
with the southern panhandle and south/central outer coastline late
Wednesday night, before moving eastward through the day Thursday.
There is higher confidence on this system bringing rainfall the
southern panhandle up to Icy Strait Corridor, with less confidence
on extending into the far northern panhandle from Yakutat over to
Skagway and Haines. It will move onshore just around Haida Gwaii
into BC by Friday, but there is potential for a meso low connected
to this main system that may move in closer to the panhandle
rather than stay just southward. The strength and location of this
feature may result in rainfall pushing further northward into
Skagway and Haines. Overall the precipitation will be heaviest
across the southern coastline, with between 0.5 and 1.0 inches
expected from Sitka along the coast down to PoW and 1 to 1.5
inches expected for Ketchikan / Annette Island.

Behind the low pressure system Friday, on shore flow is expected
to develop with a ridge of high pressure. While on shore will keep
showers in the forecast, the overall rain chances will be lower
for the Alaska Panhandle.

As the ridge builds Saturday, some stronger winds are possible from
the eastern Gulf Coast toward Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance. In the
inner channels, winds look fairly benign, other than some sea breeze
formations Saturday, but that will depend on skies clearing which
seems unlikely at this time with showers around.

By early next week, another low pressure system looks to form in the
Gulf of Alaska and potentially increase shower chances. However,
there is model disagreement on this exact timing and placement of
the low pressure system early next week, so confidence is low in
this system.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...A weak front will continue to
push its way northeastward into the northern Panhandle through
tonight & into Tuesday morning while continuing to weaken. Light
rain showers over that area will weaken & taper off into the
morning hours. CIG & VIS conditions will improve from the current
MVFR/IFR range to the VFR category by late Tuesday morning. The
remainder of the Panhandle should stay in the VFR flight category
through the entire TAF-period. The only exception may turn out to
be PAKW late overnight as the marine layer may advance back into
that area before retreating during the mid-to-late morning hours.
SFC winds will remain rather benign for most places. Afternoon
sea breezes will likely occur on Tuesday. PAGY looks to become
breezy/gusty out of the south, once again, from late Tuesday
morning into the evening hours. LLWS values remain benign through
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A swath of moderate to fresh
southeasterly breezes is moving northeastward into the
northeastern gulf coast this afternoon, bringing periods of
showers for the northern panhandle and gusty winds along the coast
overnight. Winds along the coast will diminish through Tuesday,
with the exception of Dixon Entrance seeing westerly fresh breezes
continue through the period. 5 to 6 ft wave heights will persist
along the coast as the swath of winds moves inland, diminishing
overnight to a more consistent 4 ft across the gulf. Southerly 3
ft swell at a period of around 14 seconds will decrease to 2 ft
through Tuesday. On Wednesday, gulf winds will begin to turn from
predominately southerly to northerly by Thursday as a more
organized low tracks across the N Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

Inside (Inner Channels): Much of the inner channel winds are
still relatively benign today as a swath of moderate to fresh
breezes moves onshore in the northern panhandle. Many interior
communities have developed 8 to 12 knot sea breezes this morning,
though with a band of showers currently moving into the panhandle,
sea breezes in the northern panhandle have been slightly
dampened. The exception to this is Taiya inlet, where increased
southerly winds to near 20 kts will continue through Monday
evening. Overall, a decreasing trend is expected through Tuesday
as a low tracks towards the panhandle through the southern gulf
and continued shower potential limits sea breeze potential. 1 to 2
ft wave heights are prevailing through the channels, with channel
entrances seeing 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Snow melt and a string of above normal temperature days across the
Chilkat Valley have resulted in elevated stream flow in rivers
and streams across the area. While temperatures will cool somewhat
through the week, snow levels in excess of 5000 feet will
continue to support these elevated stream flows through the time
frame.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...Contino/Musall
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
HYDROLOGY...GFS

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