444
FXAK68 PAFC 101330
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Cold Weather Advisories in effect through 1PM AKDT Thursday for
dangerous wind chills along the Southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound, Thompson Pass, Northern Susitna Valley, Northern
Copper Valley, and the Tok Cutoff.

Discussion:

The upper level pattern shows a nearly stacked low spinning over the
northeast Gulf with a longwave trough extending from the northern
Yukon Territory southwestwards to Kodiak Island and just east of the
eastern AKPEN coast. This trough will start to get pinched off as
shortwave ridging moves into northern Alaska. This new closed low
will merge with the other Gulf low into a complex low that will
gradually weaken through the remainder of the work week. At the
surface, a low is beginning to organize over the Gulf east of the
Kenai Peninsula. This low will move south today as the other Gulf
low retrogrades westwards before also dropping south. The
continuation of low pressure over the Gulf and ridging building over
interior Alaska will keep the enhanced coastal gradient in place
over the next several days. This will allow for continued gusty off-
shore gap flow winds in the usual areas (Copper River Delta, Valdez,
Thompson Pass, Seward, Whittier, the Mat Valley, etc). Heavy
freezing spray can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday for near
shore waters in areas of these strong gap flow winds, including
near the Copper River Delta, southern Cook Inlet and Kamishak Bay,
and Shelikof Strait. The gradient over the Alaska Range will also
tighten today and tomorrow which will increase northerly winds
through the Alaska Range passes and along the Copper River Valley.


Cold temperatures remain over Southcentral as the synoptic pattern
continues to allow for reinforcing shots of Arctic air. The
combination of cold temperatures and gusty winds will result in
dangerous wind chills to develop once again along the southern and
eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass,
Northern Susitna and Copper Valley, and along the Tok Cutoff with
Cold Weather Advisories in effect through Thursday.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

A very stable pattern will lead to continued cold and windy
conditions across the eastern Bering Sea and into portions of
Southwest AK the next few days. Perhaps more impactful, conditions
are perfect for large areas of extreme vessel icing across
Southwest AK coastal waters. A large, blocking upper-level ridge
of high pressure remains stationary as seen in satellite imagery,
and will remain anchored over the western Aleutians and western
Bering Sea through the forecast period. Weather conditions across
the region will remain persist through Thursday, with any
fluctuations in the forecast due to shortwaves tracking southwards
across western AK and the eastern Bering Sea.

Deep and strong northerly flow east of the ridge is maintaining a
bitter cold airmass across the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest
AK. Gusty northerly winds can be found across the eastern Bering
and down across the eastern Aleutians (Nikolski, Dutch Harbor,
Akutan) and southern Alaska Peninsula (False Pass, King Cove, Sand
Point). Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect along the
southern Alaska Peninsula for wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below
zero. Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska, temperatures remain well
below normal for this time of year, ranging from around zero to
10 degrees above zero. Snow showers continue this morning from the
eastern Aleutians to the southern AKPen on the back side of a
shortwave trough that has tracked south into the northern Pacific
overnight. Persistent snow showers along with brief visibility
reductions are likely to continue through tonight as additional
weak shortwaves drop south across Bristol Bay and across the
AKPen. Reinforcing cold air advection combined with the fast-
moving upper level shortwave late this morning through tonight
will further strengthen gap winds along the AKPen and expand the
marine areas covered by heavy freezing spray and extreme freezing
spray (potential for 4cm/hour or greater icing rates). Sub-zero
degree wind chills will persist across the Alaska Peninsula, where
Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect all the way through
Wednesday.

Another short-wave will ride over top of the ridge and across the
northern Bering Sea Wednesday before diving southward Wednesday
night through Thursday. This will bring snow to portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta and down across the eastern Bering Sea to the
Alaska Peninsula. The airmass behind this doesn`t look nearly as
cold as what is in place right now and over the next couple days.
Thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more
moderate, and there will be less heavy freezing spray for marine
areas.

-JH/SEB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-term outlook suggests a complex atmospheric setup. An
upper-level trough centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska will
stretch southward into the North Pacific, serving as a hub for
several rotating shortwaves. While high pressure is expected to
dominate the Bering Sea through Sunday, the weather will shift by
Monday afternoon as an upper-level low arrives, bringing snow
showers to the western mainland.

Regarding local impacts, a tightening pressure gradient along the
coast will trigger intense winds through the gaps of the North
Gulf Coast. Additionally, strong northerly flow and cold air
advection will lead to gusty gap winds and frigid conditions
across the Alaskan Peninsula. Model guidance is generally in good
agreement in this pattern that will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms for both South and Southcentral Alaska through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through
the TAF period. Expect wind gusts between 20 to 25 kts at times
through the TAF period as pressure gradients remain tight through
the Mat-Su Valleys.

&&


$$

282
FXAK67 PAJK 101328
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
528 AM AKDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Widespread convective showers continue into mid week, with
chances of snow decreasing from north to south late week.

- Outflow conditions will continue to strengthen through the week
and peaking on Wednesday. Outflow will bring colder, drier
weather for the northern half of the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...Satellite and radar
imagery continue to show snows showers rotating around the nearly
stationary low out in the eastern gulf and then pushing southwest
to northeast into the central and southern panhandle. Upticks in
shower coverage and intensity are again expected as surface
troughs continue to pivot around the low and into the panhandle.
However, satellite snow fall products and area surface obs are
generally indicating snowfall rates being a bit lighter than
yesterday. Allowed the Winter Weather Advisories to expire early
this morning as snow total through Tuesday night will generally
range from the 1 to 4 inch range. However, given the showery,
convective nature of the snow, localized higher amounts are
possible, especially along eastern side of Baranof Island,
including Tenakee Springs and Hoonah, where the Winter Weather
Advisory continues into the afternoon.

Further north, high pressure continues to build into the Yukon
with cold, drier northerly outflow increasing for Haines and
Skagway.

.LONG TERM...The main story for the mid to the end of week will
continue to be northerly outflow with a chance of snow showers over
the central to southern portions of SE AK. These showers will
continue to be variable allowing the heaviest showers to bring
moderate snow with reduced visibilities, and times of slightly
increased winds. The next wave of moderate to heavy showers is most
likely to move over the central and southern panhandle Wednesday and
Thursday as a band of higher vorticity moves northward. Currently,
highest accumulation looks to be over Prince of Wales Island with
the most likely solution of 2 to 4 inches in 24 hours with a low
chance of 20 to 40% chance of snow amounts near 6 to 8 inches. We
will continue to monitor these chances. The upper level low over the
gulf, along with the high pressure over the Bering Sea, will
continue to allow for northwesterly flow to bring cold air over the
panhandle. This will continue to slowly decrease temperatures as
well as keep the precipitation type as snow. The far southern
panhandle will still see times of rain or a rain/snow mix, but snow
will be the most likely precipitation type.

Otherwise, winds will continue to become northerly across the inner
channels with outflow winds building. All inner channel winds are
anticipated to become northerly by Thursday. Strongest outflow winds
will remain over Lynn Canal into Point Couverden, N Stephens
Passage, and Icy Strait with strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33
kts) through the weekend. Times of gale force winds (34 to 40 kts)
are also possible, most likely occurring Wednesday and Thursday over
Lynn Canal. For land winds, Skagway is likely to see strong winds
with a 50 to 60% chance of wind gusts near 40 mph on Wednesday.

This colder pattern looks to continue through the weekend into the
start of next week as the high remains over the Bering Sea. This
means that the next system that pushes into the panhandle will
likely bring more snow to the area due to the colder temperatures in
place. We will continue to monitor for when the next low pressure
system may arrive allowing for this change in pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers remain the main concern for
aviation this morning, particularly along the outer coastline and
across the central and southern panhandle. Most of the panhandle is
expected to continue to see VFR conditions last throughout the TAF
period, particularly across the northern panhandle, as the low
continues to slowly move southward offshore. The outer coastline
from Cross Sound southward will continue to see these on and off
showers lasting throughout the day and into tonight as the low then
is expected to linger offshore. The showers will push more northward
with most of these showers expecting to push as far north as Icy
Strait Corridor.

Showers will continue to bring intermittent drops
in CIGs to AoB 2000 ft, down to AoB 800 ft across parts of the
southern panhandle this morning, as well as bring VIS down to 2SM or
lower during the heavier snow showers. Chances for periods of these
worse flying conditions down to MVFR to IFR will exist throughout
the TAF period for much of the central and southern panhandle, being
most likely through 20z this morning. Higher chance for VFR
conditions to return around midday, before flight conditions are
expected to deteriorate again across much of the panhandle tonight
into the end of the TAF period as another more organized band of
showers associated with some surface troughing is expected to
push across the southern and central panhandle. Overall variable
flight conditions due to the scattered snow showers throughout the
TAF period.

No LLWS concerns for this period, and the only wind concern is the
outflow winds across the northern panhandle. Expecting 15 to 20 kt
winds for Skagway and Haines into midday, with gusts to 25 kt for
Haines and up to 30 kt for Skagway as the outflow strengthens during
the midday and afternoon hours. Conditions will strengthen again
into the very end of the TAF period as Wednesday sets up for some
stronger northerly outflow.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Outflow conditions are
beginning and will increase through midweek as the low in the gulf
drifts southward. From Cross Sound northward, NE gap flow winds
increase to a strong breeze out of interior passes, including out
of Disenchantment Bay. Seas trend up as a result and look to
become hazardous to small craft along the northeast coastal waters.
Over the southern waters, wave heights drop from 7 to 10 ft to 4
to 7 ft by Wednesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow winds will increase through
midweek, with strong breezes expected through most of northern/central
inner channels, with gales possible for Lynn Canal by Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy freezing spray likely to develop for Lynn Canal
and Glacier Bay. Wave heights will build in Lynn Canal, Glacier
Bay, Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage as persistent outflow
brings more fully developed seas.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
AKZ321.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...DS

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