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794
FXAK69 PAFG 302237
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rainy weather continues through Monday. A low moving southeast
from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread
rain across the Central and Eastern Interior.
- Rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally
higher totals of 0.50-1.00 inch along the northern Alaska
Range and areas near Delta Junction.
- Snow levels around 2-2,500 feet will support snow across
higher elevations of the Interior, with totals of 4 to 8
inches along the Richardson highway corridor near Isabel
Pass, locally higher above pass level.
- Breezy winds are expected late Sunday into Monday. West to
northwest winds will gust 25-35 mph across much of the
Interior as the next system moves through. These winds will
have difficulty reaching into the valleys except in the Upper
Tanana Valley.
- Cool conditions continue through Monday. Highs will generally
remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. Clearing Monday night could allow for some
isolated valleys to fall near freezing Tuesday morning.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain continues through Sunday night. A low moving southeast
from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread
rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western
Interior. Some showers will remain along the Chukchi Sea
Coast Monday.
- Expect rainfall totals generally 0.10-0.50 inches. St
Lawrence Island should remain mostly dry. Snow levels will
fall to around 1-2,000 feet, allowing for light snow at higher
elevations of the Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and
Brooks Range.
- Wind is likely to be the most noticeable impact along the
coast. West/southwest winds transition to north/northwest
Sunday with gusts peaking around 25-45 mph.
- High tides Sunday are expected to rise 1-2 feet above the
normal high tide across the West Coast, with the highest rises
near two feet in the Kotzebue Sound and the far eastern coast
of the Norton Sound.
- Temperatures cool behind the system, with highs dropping from
the 50s to low 60s into the 40s to 50s, with overnight lows
generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Another low crossing the Chukchi Sea today will reinforce
breezy and showery conditions across much of the North Slope
through most of the week.
- Rainfall will generally be 0.10-0.50 inches through Monday,
with the highest amounts further west. The eastern North Slope
from Deadhorse to Kaktovik should be considerably drier,
generally around a trace to 0.10 inches. Snow levels around
1-2,000 feet will support snow in the Brooks Range, with
roughly a trace to 2 inches.
- Westerly winds increase Monday with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range possible west of Deadhorse and in the 15 to 25 mph range
from Deadhorse east.
- Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday, dropping
slightly to the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the week.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some
locations in the Brooks Range dropping into the 20s.
- Expect repeated showers through much of the week as additional
disturbances continue to circulate around the lingering low
pressure in the Arctic.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast towards the Gulf of
Alaska Sunday and Monday. This widespread rain across Northern
Alaska with pockets of snow at higher elevations. Wet snow
falling along the Richardson Highway through the Alaska Range
late Sunday through Monday could lead to poor travel conditions.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for this area. Afterwards
conditions calm briefly before another low in the Western
Bering Sea sends a front towards the West Coast Wednesday into
Thursday bringing wind and rain back to the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Sunday, a strong upper
level low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast across the
Interior. A surface low formed beneath this upper level feature
earlier Sunday and follows the upper level low as it moves
southeast. This drags cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and
moderate rainfall (0.10 to 0.50 inches of water equivalent)
across the Interior through Sunday. The cooler temperatures also
lower snow levels to the 1000-2000 foot range across the West
Coast and Western Interior, and to around 2000 feet across the
Central and Eastern Interior. Snow is expected at higher
elevations across the Western Brooks Range, the Interior, and
the Alaska Range. Early Monday the upper level low reaches near
the Gulf of Alaska and almost immediate spins up another surface
low beneath it. This new surface low becomes stacked beneath
the upper level low and shifts the flow of moisture over the
Southeastern Interior this allows much of the remaining moisture
to be pulled more directly south into the northern slopes of
the Eastern Alaska Range. This allows for additional
precipitation (0.50 to 1.0 inches of water equivalent) to focus
around that area. Given the snow levels reaching near 2000 feet,
the top of the Richardson Highway near Isabel Pass could see
much of this precipitation fall as a messy wet snow Monday.
The now stacked low over the Gulf of Alaska continues southeast
late Monday into Tuesday which allows for ridging to start
building into Northern Alaska from the southwest. This ridging
is once again being sourced from the same large high pressure
system in the North Pacific that has been so influential to the
weather these past few weeks. The building ridge is halted by
low pressure over the Arctic Ocean that extends over the North
Slope. This Arctic low rests just offshore near Point Barrow and
supports consistently breezy and showery conditions across the
North Slope through the entire forecast period. It formed from
some remnant lower pressure from the system moving south today
that combines with the next low to move across the North
Slope Monday.
As the ridging builds in another large low pressure system moves
into the Western Bering Sea late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
low is quite strong and peaks near 970 millibars of surface
pressure, but is sandwiched between two area of high pressure
with little steering flow. It`s stuck in the Western Bering
until at least late Thursday and will have lost much of its
power by then. It may be stuck, but it will still impact the
West Coast/Western Interior by slinging a front towards that
region Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some model
disagreement as to how quickly and how far east this front is
able to reach the area, but when it does gusty winds and
moderate to heavy rain is expected once again. Coastal concerns
will be significantly limited by the orientation of the low
promoting primarily offshore winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday,
higher pressure will have built over much of the Interior
promoting warmer weather than earlier in the week. A low remains
over the Arctic Ocean near Point Barrow, keeping their
temperatures more moderate while supporting breezy westerly
winds and showery conditions through the week. Another low in
the Western Bering Sea slowly weakens in place, but sends a
strong and wet front towards the West Coast/Western Interior.
This front will have to push through the higher pressure that
has developed over the Interior to reach farther east. A triple
point low is expected to form as the front pushes east which
should help sustain the front at the cost of the strength of the
parent low. There is still a large amount of disagreement for
how quickly this triple point forms and how well does the front
push against the higher pressure. Confidence is therefore low in
the eastward extent of moderate to heavy rain showers along the
front. There is general agreement that the rain and lower
pressure will eventually win out over the ridging in the
Interior, but whether that means that the Central Interior will
see more rain on Thursday or Friday remains unclear.
As the front extends east the parent low slowly weakens and
meanders slightly east. Another strong low moves along the
Aleutians sometime Friday into Saturday which should pull much
of the remaining energy from the Bering Sea low with it east.
There is even worse agreement on how these two features interact
and thus the forecast for next weekend is very uncertain.
Another round of wet and windy weather is expected, but the
northward extent of these two systems is very questionable. A
more southerly path would keep much of the impact from this
system south of the Alaska Range, but a more northward path
could bring considerable rainfall and blustery winds to much of
the West Coast and Interior. The North Slope is expected to
remain more tame in comparison with more consistent low pressure
over the Arctic keeping breezy winds and showers going towards
the end of the week.
Coastal Hazard Potential...
West to northwesterly winds along the West Coast through Sunday
night support onshore flow along northwest and west facing
coastlines. This is expected to allow the high tide Sunday into
Monday to peak around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide
level across the West Coast. The Kotzebue Sound, the Bering
Strait, and the far eastern Norton Sound are expected to see
rises closer to 2 feet. Afterwards conditions calm ahead of
another large low pressure system setting up in the Western
Bering Sea Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding this system, but the strongest winds are expected to
be offshore which will significantly limit any coastal hazard
potential.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Diminished fire weather concerns continue through early this week as
a cool, unsettled pattern persists across the region. A surface low
tracking southeast from the Chukchi Sea into the Gulf of Alaska
Sunday into Monday will help maintain cooler temperatures and
widespread moisture. Relative humidity values will see excellent
overnight recovery above 80 percent across the Eastern Interior
before dipping into the 40 to 60 percent range Tuesday into
Wednesday. West to northwest winds will increase Sunday night into
Monday, gusting between 25 and 40 mph. Stronger winds are expected
across higher elevations and through mountain passes before
subsiding Tuesday morning. Widespread wetting rain continues through
Monday, with rain transitioning to wet snow at elevations above 2000
feet along the Richard Highway near Isabel Pass overnight Sunday
before tapering off Monday afternoon. Looking ahead, a deep low
pressure system moving into the Bering Sea midweek will bring
another round of rain and gusty winds to our region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation across Northern Alaska is expected to
continue into Monday as a low continues to move from the Chukchi
Sea Coast southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Rain is expected
for most locations, but pockets of snow are expected at higher
elevations. Water equivalent totals around 0.10 to 0.50 inches are
expected for most areas, with higher amounts nearer 0.50 to 1.0
inches for the the northern slopes of the Alaska Range and
nearby areas. River and stream levels across the Western and
Central Interior remain above normal, but beneath any flood
concerns. Another low is expected to bring more rain to the
West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday into Thursday which
should keep water levels from falling much.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT
Tuesday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803>807-852.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ811-
857.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-
817-851.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ853-854-856.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Satcher
HYDROLOGY...Stokes
089
FXAK68 PAFC 301334
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Messages:
- Another system moves across Southcentral late tonight through
Monday, bringing widespread rain to lower elevations and snow to
higher elevations and mountain passes.
- Gusty offshore winds continue this weekend, strongest along the
coast through favored gaps and passes.
- A colder pattern settles across Southcentral Sunday night through
midweek, with near-freezing temperatures and frost possible in
colder inland valleys Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Discussion:
Much of Southcentral, including along the coast, have remained cloud
free overnight has allowed many areas to fall into the 40s this
morning. There are some exceptions such as Kodiak where increased
cloud cover has kept their temperatures in the 50s and some of the
favored gap flow areas such as Seward, Whittier, and Valdez have
stayed in the 50s given gusty winds early this morning. Temperatures
will warm back up into the 50s and 60s by this afternoon despite
increasing cloud cover through the day.
The next system is on its way and is currently making its way
towards the Seward Peninsula, before it drops across Alaska towards
Prince William Sound by tomorrow afternoon. This Arctic low will be
fairly dynamic as it moves south, and brings much colder air with
it. This means that snow is anticipated for higher elevations and
the mountain passes, including Broad, Tahneta, Isabel, and Thompson
Passes. Snow it also likely along sections of the Denali Highway.
Road temperatures may be warm enough to limit accumulation on road
surfaces, but light accumulations are possible until temperatures
warm back above freezing. For lower elevations, another round of
more widespread rain is expected. Precipitation will initially move
into the Susitna Valley then spread south and east with time as the
low drops south and into the Gulf. The southern end of the Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak will miss the built of this system; however,
Kodiak will see an embedded system race through with rain just
skirting the southern end of the island. Cooler and drier air is
move in behind the system, helping to clear lingering showers and
cloud cover. With the cooler airmass and clearing skies, Tuesday
morning looks to be the coldest morning since spring with many areas
dropping near, or below, freezing. Areas across the lower Susitna
Valley, Mat Valley, Eagle River/Anchorage, and portions of the
western Kenai should be prepared for patchy to widespread frost
Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will also be chilly, but frost
potential does not look as widespread as temperatures will moderate
some. As such, actions should be taken now to protect cold
susceptible plants over the next several mornings.
Offshore winds will continue to be gusty over the next several days,
especially through favored gaps and passes.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...
Active weather returns over Southwest Alaska as a many shortwaves
move over a strong ridge over the Aleutians. The shortwaves will
bring periods of gusty winds and rainfall to the Shemya area, the
Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday
morning. Cold air advection and northwesterly flow will enhance
the gap winds through bays and passes in the Alaska Peninsula.
By this afternoon, an upper low north of the Seward Peninsula
will interact with a shortwave, allowing for widespread rainfall
to overspread the Southwest Mainland Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon. The subsequent shortwaves riding over the ridge
through early next week will bring repeated bursts of rain and
gusty small-craft winds from the Adak and Atka region, through the
Pribilof Islands, and into the Alaska Peninsula. Across the
southern Bering and Aleutian Chain, including those areas under
the ridge from Adak to Unalaska, small-craft winds with gale-force
gusts will become more widespread by Sunday night and persist
through the first half of the week. Fog and low stratus will be
possible over the area of ridging and in-between shortwaves
elsewhere.
Southwest Alaska (apart from the Alaska Peninsula) is expected to
remain mainly dry Monday and Tuesday, other than a chance for
light rain to brush the immediate coast as each shortwave drops
south in the eastern Bering early Tuesday. Reinforced northerly
flow in the wake of the upper low dropping south into the Gulf
will bring more fall- like temperatures, with nighttime and
morning temperatures dropping into the 30s for interior locations.
The ridge will finally begin its progression eastward on Tuesday
as a strong low moves in from the west. Rainfall and gap winds
will taper off over the Alaska Peninsula as the ridge moves over
it. The ridge will also become taller as it moves, so the core of
rain will be pushed north of the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday
afternoon.
JAR/JH
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
An upper level ridge extending out of the North Pacific, through
the eastern Bering Sea and across the Bering Strait will still be
in place on Wednesday. By late Wednesday, the upper-level pattern
looks to become more amplified, with the North Pacific Ridge
moving east and lifting across the Southern Mainland Thursday
morning. The eastward progression of this ridge will allow a
trough over the western Bering to deepen, resulting in a stout
southerly wind flow between the two features. A strong shortwave
will move north along a stalled frontal boundary, leading to the
development of a surface low somewhere between the Pribilofs and
Kuskokwim Delta coast. This feature, along with its surface front,
will drive into Southwest Alaska with another round of heavy rain
and gusty southwesterly winds along the coast for Thursday.
The eastern progression of the upper level ridge and low will
continue through Saturday, at which time the ridge will be in the
eastern Gulf of Alaska. The large upper level low that will be
just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday will have
drifted eastward and encompass the entire Bering Sea by Saturday.
This will usher in southwesterly flow aloft for both the
Southwest mainland and Southcentral by next weekend. This will
also allow the heavy rain in Southwest Alaska on Thursday to
migrate eastward into Southcentral Alaska for Friday into
Saturday.
Model agreement is converging on this solution in regards to the
timing and location of these two main features so confidence in
the forecast is increasing.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through late tonight. Cloud
deck will increase through the day with ceilings gradually
lowering. Rain showers expected to move into the terminal by 12Z
Monday.
&&
$$
263
FXAK67 PAJK 301758
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
958 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation section for 18z issuance.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A brief lull in heavier rain showers is expected Sunday before a
stronger low moves into the Gulf, bringing another round of
precipitation through Monday.
- Potential for another lull in the weather starting mid week as
high pressure tries to move into the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Rain showers and low clouds are the main concern this
morning as the weakened low is currently offshore near Cape
Spencer. This low will continue to weaken before dissipating ahead
of the next system that moves into the Gulf later tonight. Until
then, the rain currently across the will slowly diminish
throughout the day remaining fairly light. As the next system
moves into the Gulf, we could see some convection along the
northern Gulf coast so it was included in the forecast starting
this evening going into tomorrow. Current thinking is that the
best chances will be tomorrow during the day before conditions
become less favorable going into Monday evening and Tuesday. With
this low originating from Siberia and the Arctic ocean, expect
some cooling with temperatures at elevation seeing the most
significant impact. Snow levels look to drop down to around 5,000
to 6,000 ft on Tuesday before rising for Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...Largely uneventful long term in terms of impact, but
several interesting features and tidbits. The first being Tuesday
morning, as the stronger low moves down from the NE gulf coast
towards Dixon Entrance. Rather strong surge of cold air looks to
be associated with this low; and with some leeside troughing from
northwesterly winds, it could be as low as 990 mb near Yakutat
with 850 mb temperatures dropping below 0 C. As a result,
expecting lapse rates around the low center to be stronger. With
strong vorticity advection, expecting plenty of lift with the
possibility of thunderstorms in the outer coast. Most of the rain
accumulations look to be on the outer coast with persistent
onshore flow, but since this low looks relatively transient, not
expecting any one area to have extended periods of moderate to
possibly heavy rainfall.
As it moves towards the southern panhandle, another shortwave
trough looks to come across the gulf waters, merging with the
existing low near the panhandle, strengthening it again. There is
some uncertainty on exactly how this shortwave will merge with the
ongoing system, but definitely trending towards impacting the
Canadian areas.
Going into the mid to late week, high amplitude ridging returns
with northwesterly flow, drier conditions, and warmer
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Unfortunately, not expecting any large scale improvements for most
of the inner channels today, only marginal improvements. In wake
of the front last night, lingering low clouds, lighter winds, and
lower visibilities down to IFR with spotty LIFR will slightly
improve to MVFR conditions. On the coast, Sitka and areas north
along the coast look to break out into VFR conditions, primarily
from the stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Western Prince of
Wales Island does not look to be that lucky, with mainly MVFR and
onshore flow.
Expecting to see a return to low MVFR and IFR tonight, as multiple
shortwaves both in the northern panhandle and southern panhandle
move in. Guidance looks somewhat heavy handed in IFR to LIFR, but
due to rain rates not looking as strong as this previous front,
combined with wind mixing, not expecting as bad as conditions as
last night.
Not expecting any LLWS criteria from these systems moving through
tonight, but may have gusty winds associated with TAF sites from
Icy Strait southward.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer Waters: Somewhat active gulf of Alaska over the next few
days. At least two lows will be moving SE through the eastern gulf
from the Prince William Sound area. Overall the wind pattern over
the gulf favors W to NW winds over the offshore marine zones,
while the winds directions will be more variable near the coast
switching from S and SW ahead of each low, becoming more easterly
as the low passes, and finally becoming more N and NW in the wake
of the lows. Highest winds will be with the second low that will
be moving through Monday into Tuesday with near gale expected for
the central gulf waters. Near coastal waters will feature weaker
winds of around 20 kt or so even with the second stronger low.
Seas will be going up and down as well with up to 8 ft seas for
the current system and up to 13 ft seas out in the central gulf
for the second system. In between systems on Sunday, seas will be
as low as 6 ft. predominate swell will be around 3 to 5 ft out of
the W for most of the next few days.
Inner Channels: The front that is moving through right now is not
as strong as the one Saturday and winds are expected to gradually
diminish into Sunday. Likewise seas are around 4 ft or so for
most areas and will gradually subside as the winds do. Of greater
concern has been the reductions in visibility due to rain and fog.
Some areas have been as low as 1 mile and more areas that low
will likely be encountered through the evening and overnight
before improving Sunday. There is another period of higher winds
and seas expected for Monday as a new front moves in at that time.
Wide spread southerly winds of 20 kt expected across the northern
2/3rd of the inner channels starting late Sunday night and
continuing through Monday night before diminishing. Highest winds
will be in Lynn Canal where 30 kt winds could be observed Monday
morning.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-033-036-641>644-651-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...Bezenek
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