277
FXAK68 PAFC 211353
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Today is the break between the last system and a stronger low that
is in the Bering Sea and bring a wet pattern back to Southcentral
for Wednesday which will persist into Thursday and beyond.

The warm front from the Bering low will move up Cook Inlet from the
southwest Tuesday night and will probably bring in some light
rain to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley late tonight as it does
so. Being late at night, the precipitation type is in question,
especially with the snow that has mixed in with the showers even
during the afternoon hours the past two days. However, with the
warm front increasing showers and stratiform precipitation
9instead of convection with showers), rain looks to be most likely
at lower elevations. The expected freezing level over Anchorage
for tonight should be between 1500 and 2000 ft for Anchorage.
That, and southeasterly surface winds increasing late tonight
should tip the scales to rain for Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley lower elevations.

By Wednesday afternoon, the main front edges into Southcentral
and brings with it the the deep moisture to start what will be a
multi-day rain event for the Gulf coast and even some other more
inland areas. There is a bit of a question with how much the rain
will be mitigated by downsloping for the leeward side of the
mountains. Models have some very diverse solutions about this,
especially for Anchorage. However, the IVT values Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday are significant enough that this deep
moisture and extra lift associated with the jet streak will be
enough to override downsloping and bring widespread rain into the
region.

This moisture moves over the Copper River Basin for Wednesday
night into Thursday, but Glennallen and other lower elevations
are more likely to remain mostly dry in the downslope as well as
get some strong and gusty southerly winds.

Seward, in particular, may see the most amount of rain in this
system. From Wednesday through Friday, Seward could see 2 to
upwards of 3 inches of rainfall.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Rain and snow showers continue to taper off over the Southwest
Mainland as a ridge builds into the region. A strong low is
currently over the Shemya and Adak regions, bringing mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to those areas. This front will
slowly makes its way northeastward over the next few days. A
strong front from the low is pushing eastward, also bringing mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to the Aleutians and the Pribilof
Islands. By Tuesday afternoon, the storm strengthens to storm-
force on the northern periphery of the system west of the
Pribilofs. Heavy rain moves to False Pass, King Cove, Cold Bay,
and Sand Point by Tuesday evening. Gap areas in the Fox Islands
and the Alaska Peninsula will see stronger gusts as the front
passes.

The front will push onshore by this afternoon, bringing light to
moderate snowfall and gusty winds to Nunivak Island and the
Kuskokwim Delta. These gusty winds and snowfall will combine to
promote localized blowing snow conditions, reducing visibility to
1/2 mile or less at times into Wednesday morning. Inland areas
north and west of Bethel will see blowing snow as well. Also, a
period of freezing rain mixed with snow is expected over the
Kuskokwim Delta early Wednesday morning. Due to this threat, the
Winter Weather Advisory now includes the inland Kuskokwim Delta.
By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm above freezing and
precipitation will reduce in intensity over the Southwest Mainland
as the front pushes eastward. The low itself will be positioned
west of the Pribilof Islands by this time, bringing more gusty
winds and precipitation over the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.
Gap areas over the Fox Islands and Alaska Peninsula will once
again see stronger gusts during this period.

The low will weaken as it moves northeastward. By Friday, winds
and chances for precipitation will have diminished over the Bering
and the Southwest Mainland. However, lingering showers will
prevail across Southwest Alaska. These will likely be rain during
the day and a mix of rain and snow at night.

-CL/JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...


Precipitation continues across much of Alaska through the
weekend. A North Pacific low will enter the southern Bering near
Adak Sunday morning, passing the Pribilof Islands Sunday night and
pausing west of Nunivak Island on Monday. This system brings
widespread gales across southern and eastern Bering and Bristol
Bay before it weakens on Monday. The highest winds do not reach
the mainland, and concern for coastal impacts is low due to
shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice
floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The associated front from this system will expand into the
western Gulf of Alaska, drawing upon an extended moisture fetch.
Coastal areas in the northern Gulf, Kodiak Island and higher
elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most
precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of light
to moderate rain at lower elevations and snow at higher
elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some downsloping to the
west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement on the track of this system has improved, keeping
the low west to slightly northwest of Nunivak Island, with
southerly flow bringing the main moisture plume into Southcentral
and Southeast Alaska. The minority opinion of the ECMWF places the
center of the system west of the Pribilofs, which would signal
higher wind and precipitation for those islands, but elsewhere
little would change. Shortwaves rotating around the center of the
system will bring slightly less intense precipitation to
Southwest Alaska through the first half of the week.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through the morning,
tapering off by around 20Z, and remain light through the remainder
of the day. VFR conditions will likely prevail through most of
the period, with a slight chance of conditions briefly dipping
into MVFR with passing showers after 12Z on Wednesday. Winds could
become gusty out of the southeast by Wednesday morning.

&&


$$

877
FXAK67 PAJK 211857 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1057 AM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this morning as front departs
the area, leaving behind intermittent light rain and overcast
skies clearing through the afternoon. Strongest sustained winds
through Tuesday expected within Lynn Canal northward to Skagway,
up to 20 kts/23 mph, elsewhere across the panhandle, winds remain largely
15 kts/17 mph or less. High temperatures today expected to reach
into the low to mid 40s across the northern panhandle, increasing
into the mid 40s to low 50s along and south of a line from Sitka
to Angoon to Petersburg.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Wednesday/
MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle as
front departs the area, with intermittent rain showers, CIGS 1500
to 5000ft and prevailing greater than 6 sm visbys. Anticipating
trends to remain largely the same through Tuesday evening, with
precipitation coming to an end and gradual improvement to
widespread VFR flight conditions developing through early
Wednesday afternoon. Expecting cigs overnight will decrease as an
area of high pressure of the Gulf of Alaska moves eastward over
the area, with any lingering low level moisture trapped beneath.

Winds through the period will remain light, around 10kts or less,
but can`t rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts through the
afternoon, returning near calm and variable overnight into
Wednesday morning. No major LLWS concerns through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 459 AM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026...

SHORT TERM...The benign pattern begins now, with the shortwave
currently over the panhandle and expecting to exit to the east by
the end of the morning. In its wake is persistent westerly, dry
flow, shifting northwesterly over the course of the day. This
means an end to rain and snow for the panhandle, with clearing
skies. Ketchikan and Prince of Wales Island are expected to remain
mostly clear for the day, with areas in the northern half clearing
out during the late morning to early afternoon. Currently have
temperatures around the mid to upper 40s, but may need a
temperature adjustment depending on how much solar radiation heats
up the areas. Needless to say; however, sea breezes are in store
for the panhandle, with relatively benign weather extending all
the way until the end of the month.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...
A relatively benign pattern is in store for SE AK, so minimal
changes have been made to the forecast. Ridging over the gulf
continues to build Wednesday into Thursday, letting the southern
panhandle see more of a break through the week. Dry weather will
persist for much of the southern panhandle and parts of the
central panhandle into the weekend, with only small chances for
the occasional light shower to reach the outer coast. The ridging
is set up in such a way that the northern panhandle will see
onshore flow continue scattered, light showers through the period,
with potential for long breaks with broken skies in between. The
northeastern gulf coast looks to remain the exception through
Thursday, with Yakutat most likely seeing the edges of a front
along the northwestern gulf coast continue to funnel moisture into
the area through the rest of the week and into the weekend. For
any area that sees rainfall through this period, rates will remain
on the lighter side with the exception just being for the
occasional pocket of heavier showers. Models are mostly in line
for this period, but start to split going into Friday night and
Saturday. The EC has come more in line with the other models in
the most recent run, but is still trying to bring a frontal band
more eastward into the northern panhandle for Saturday. The
forecast continues to lean more towards the GFS and Canadian, with
this front staying in the central gulf and dissipating before it
reaches the panhandle.

High temperatures will gradually increase through the week,
reaching into the 50s for the northern panhandle, mid 50s for the
central panhandle, and the high 50s and potentially low 60s for
the southern panhandle. Potential sea breezes will keep
temperatures along the water from reaching the maximum potential
highs, but inland, sunny areas are more likely to hit them. Clear
skies also mean low temperatures may drop lower than expected
overnight, though mid 30s to low 40s looks to be the current
trend. Light winds are expected through the period, but clear
skies and warming daytime high temperatures may cause sea breezes
to pick up through the inner channels and for coastal communities
midday through the afternoon. With these clear skies and light
winds, the possibility of isolated fog development through the
early morning hours exists. This will depend on how much moisture
remains through the dry period, as well as potential for a low
marine boundary layer to push in from over the gulf which could
limit initial fog development and instead blanket the outer coast
of the panhandle and into the Icy Strait Corridor with a low cloud
deck. With the potential for on and off showers persisting in the
northern panhandle, if skies manage to clear out overnight, fog
development will be more likely through the Icy Strait Corridor
later in the week once the southern panhandle has had more time to
dry out.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure will continue to be
the main driver of winds and seas, with persistent 15-20 knot
winds for most of the eastern gulf. Additionally, seas look mostly
persistent, 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly
breezes in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal are expected to remain mostly
persistent through the day before finally relaxing as the suns
sets. For the southern half, Sumner and Clarence Strait, are
expected to remain mostly stable W to NWerlies at 10 to 15 knots.
For the channels in the central panhandle, expecting winds to be
mostly light air.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC

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