211
FXAK68 PAFC 110007
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A high pressure ridge pushing in over Southcentral Alaska is set
to bring some of the nicest weather we have seen so far this
summer! Skies will continue to clear as a low pressure system in
the Gulf of Alaska pushes south. Temperatures will steadily rise
over the next couple days with highs in the upper 60`s to low 70`s
by Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers may develop on the
slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains while shortwave perturbations
being spun up from the low in the Gulf will aid in enhancing
afternoon thunderstorms in Copper River Basin. High pressure looks
to stick around through Friday night, so look forward to mostly
clear and calm weather for the next few days!

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening front stretched over the Eastern Aleutians/Southern
Alaska Peninsula to Nunivak Island, bringing widespread rain and
small craft winds to the region. There`s a small corridor of gale-
force winds currently near the Pribilof Islands shifting northward
tonight as the front continues to weaken. Tonight, a new low
pressure system will enter the Western Bering, phasing with the
previous low pressure system, re-initiating precipitation across the
Western and Central Aleutians as well as maintaining the
southwesterly winds. The new front will similarly sweep the Aleutian
Chain through Wednesday into Thursday night bringing periods of
light-to-moderate rainfall across the area. The Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see rain while the
rest of Southwest remains on the drier side, though cloud cover
will gradually spill into the rest of the Southwest mainland over
the next few days.

Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast to persist
beyond midweek. This will coincide with the full moon and
astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal waters
rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide line. This
pattern may persist into the early weekend, and as the front moves
over the Southwest coastline by late Friday, onshore winds may
increase.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Not much change from yesterday`s long term discussion. Expect
generally unsettled weather as several lows move across the region
late this week and into early next week. The worst conditions
during this 4-day span will likely be focused along the Eastern
Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak
Island as a robust North Pacific low moves north along the
Southwest Alaska coastline through Saturday. Increasing
confidence in the low track means that there is also increasing
confidence in gusty winds winds through the gaps and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap and into
interior Bristol Bay. Additionally, periods of moderate to heavy
rain will also be likely along the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula given the plentiful moisture advection associated with
this storm. As the low will move through rather quickly, total
rain accumulations shouldn`t be too excessive. Another storm
grazes the Central/Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska
Peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slides south
into the North Pacific through Monday. With the storm track
remaining further south, the worst conditions will remain
offshore. For the western Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather
with winds expected to remain below 25 kt and areas of rain
showers.

Shifting gears to Southcentral ALaska, easterly waves emanating
from a retrograding upper low will lead to more widespread rain,
and a transition away from the warmer and drier conditions earlier
in the week. The placement of the upper low continues to vary
greatly among the models, leading to uncertainty with the timing
and extent of rain.

- KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue. A sea breeze
up to 8 kts is expected each afternoon through the TAF period.

&&

$$

551
FXAK67 PAJK 102326
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SHORT TERM...A broad ridge building over SEAK has brought breaks
in the clouds and even blue skies to many regions in the
panhandle. Upper level onshore flow keeps the chance for light
showers in the forecast for the northern and central panhandle,
though accumulations remain minimal. Partly cloudy conditions are
expected to continue until a weak system sends a front over the
northern panhandle Thursday afternoon. Winds will mainly remain
light and variable over land areas, though certain locations in
the channels may become breezier as the pressure gradient
tightens. Temperatures look to remain at or below normal for this
time of year. Afternoon highs look to be near normal for the
southern panhandle while the northern half will see below normal
temps. Tonight`s low looks to be near normal.

.LONG TERM...Less active weather remains in the forecast for a
majority of the week, though there is still a chance of scattered
showers for the northern panhandle through this period with 500
mb zonal onshore flow. Winds will decrease and remain light until
turning easterly with the next system moving over the panhandle on
Thursday.

The weak surface low with associated upper level easterly flow
will increase the chances for showers, especially for the northern
portion of the panhandle. A deformation band forms over the
northern panhandle Thursday which has increased QPF amounts
slightly, though they still remain low for this system with
minimal accumulation expected. The potential for easterly
thunderstorms was being considered, though moisture levels look
relatively dry with normal surface temperatures. The EFI table
still shows agreement for increased gusts on the western side of
Canada, though the area has shrunk. Most models agree on positive
indexes and slightly unstable lapse rates. Mild uncertainty still
remains because the GFS shows a slightly more likely chance for
these variables to line up, along with increased vorticity and an
inversion. The NAM is beginning to move more in that direction
with elevated levels of mid-level CAPE. Light rainfall will first
impact the northern panhandle before increasing and spreading
southward through the afternoon.

After the system on Friday, there is potential for another dry
period through the weekend before the next low reaches the
panhandle. A broad upper level low helps guide the previous weak
surface low through the gulf. GFS and Canadian model runs have
this upper level low move northeast through the gulf and
strengthen, bringing a more impactful front to the outer coast by
Tuesday. EC runs have stretched and weakened the upper level low
more so than other model runs, which causes the surface low to
move south and fall apart to give the panhandle another potential
dry day. Uncertainty in which path the surface low will take will
become more clear with time. Either way, showers will most likely
follow. Temperatures are looking to increase through the end of
the week, with some areas seeing highs in the low 60s and lows in
the high 40s.

&&

.AVIATION.../ through 18z Wednesday / No chance in thought process
going forward with the 0z TAF issuance. Conditions across the
panhandle continue to be mostly VFR with Yakutat finally clearing
out. Not expecting any fog development, as a lingering stacked low
looks to bring some vorticity advection and upward motion, mixing
out the lower levels of the atmosphere overnight. However, with
the upwards motion and cooling overnight, a lower cloud deck does
have the possibility to develop AOB 1500 ft. Highest likelihood
looks to be localized around the gulf coast and into Icy Strait.
Confidence is low at this time in the Icy Strait corridor such as
Gustavus, there is not included in the current set of tafs.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: A weak low enters the Gulf Wednesday
the 11th. Then wind speeds will increase to 15 kt across most of
the outer coastal waters by late Wednesday night with 15 to 20 kt
speeds lasting into Thursday and Friday. Wind directions will be
variable as they will be highly determined by where the low is at
that time. Ahead of the low, winds will be out of a southerly
direction with west or north winds behind the low.


Inner Channels: Winds for most of the inner channels will be around
5 to 10 kts or less through the next few days. There are some
exceptions, such as Lynn Canal, near Point Couverden, near Young
Bay, and Clarence Strait, where winds of up to 15 to 20 kt are
expected at times due to sea breezes, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...GFS/GJS

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