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179
FXAK69 PAFG 080046
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level low pressure system tracks southeast into the Gulf
of Alaska today, snow showers will continue across the Interior as a
colder and drier airmass builds in out of the west. Breezy winds
along the West Coast and NE Arctic Coast will lead to areas of
blowing snow through Thursday, with elevated winds across the
Southeast Interior today also leading to blowing snow.
Farther north across the North Slope, very cold temperatures with
wind chills as cold as 70 below zero continue for the Eastern North
Slope, with a Cold Weather Advisory now extended through Friday
morning. As clearer skies make a return upon the exit of the ongoing
system, temperatures will trend colder across Northern Alaska
through Friday. A frontal boundary remains on track to lift north
from the Gulf of Alaska Friday into the weekend, bringing increased
winds, snow chances, warmer temperatures, and cloudier conditions.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow ends and skies clear from south to north through
Thursday as winds become light allowing temperatures to drop back
into the 30s/40s below zero through Friday. The Yukon Flats and
perhaps the Upper Tanana Valley dropping to around 50 below zero.
- East winds increase for high elevations Thursday night through
Friday night with gusts up to 60 mph and blowing snow possible for
the Dalton Highway Summits and the middle Tanana Valley with
similarly high southerly winds through Isabel Pass.
- Snowfall amounts range from 1-2 inches across the southeast
interior (including Fairbanks) to 2-5 inches across the north
central interior (including the Dalton Highway Summits), and 2-6
inches for the Alaska Range Passes.
- Chances are increasing for another stretch of cold temperatures
early next week with interior valleys possibly dropping back to near
30/40 below zero, except for the upper Tanana and Forty Mile area.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy north winds gusting up to 40 mph continue for small
sections of the West Coast through Thursday with brief snow showers
and patches of blowing snow reducing visibility to around 1 mile at
times.
- Clearing skies allow colder temperatures with widespread
20s/30s below zero and the coldest interior valleys dropping to
around 40 below zero tonight. Northerly winds increase Thursday
night into Friday resulting in wind chills as cold as -50F.
- Northerly gusts up to 50 mph are possible as early as Friday for
the West Coast Capes, higher terrain, and `blow holes` along the
Seward Peninsula. Localized gusts in excess of 60 mph combined with
considerable blowing snow and blizzard conditions are possible at
times Friday night through Sunday.
- Another round of snow and warmer temperatures shifts west across
Western Alaska Friday through the weekend, as a front lifts
northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Very cold and dry conditions will remain in place over the North
Slope and Brooks Range through Friday. Widespread temperatures in
the 20s/30s below zero will persist with much colder wind chills.
- Wind chills as low as 70 below zero will continue for the Eastern
North Slope, where a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through
Friday morning.
- N/NE wind gusts up to 35 mph will continue in the vicinity of
Point Hope and the Western Brooks Range through Friday afternoon
when gusts increase up to 50 mph, leading to areas of blowing and
drifting snow and low visibility at times.
- Light snow returns this weekend as a front lifts northwestward
across the North Slope with up to an inch of accumulation through
Sunday night.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night.
A broad 500 mb low around 496 dm centered near Yakutat shifting
southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska, with clearer skies and drier
conditions further west and cloudier and snowier conditions further
east. As this H5 low continues to track towards the Panhandle, snow
chances diminish across the Interior and Alaska Range tonight as
predominantly dry conditions return to Northern Alaska. Winds remain
elevated along portions of the West Coast, NE Arctic Coast, and
Brooks Range within the cold air advection regime behind this
system. As this H5 low lifts north late Thursday into Friday, winds
increase with gusts up to around 60 mph possible for higher
elevations of the interior (Dalton Highway Summits) in addition to
the Upper Tanana Valley, Alaska Range, and portions of the West
Coast leading to areas of blowing snow and blizzard conditions at
times. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall may accompany these strong
winds in the vicinity of Isabel Pass and Delta Junction. Winter
Storm Watches have been issued for Isabel Pass, Delta Junction, the
Dalton Highway Summits, St. Lawrence Island, and portions of the
West Coast starting on Friday and continue through various times
this weekend.
Clearer skies continue to expand across Northern Alaska through
Thursday with colder temperatures expected to return. Widespread
20s/30s below zero are expected as valley locations drop into the
40s below with the upper Tanana and Yukon Flats areas potentially
dropping to around 50 below zero for Friday morning. Winds increase
Thursday night and Friday mainly at higher elevation summits
resulting in potential for even colder wind chills at times. A
strong low pressure system around 960 mb lifts northeast into the
Gulf of Alaska for Friday sending a front north Friday into Saturday
with a band of snow, widespread clouds, gusty pre-frontal winds, and
warmer temperatures to finish out the work week into the weekend.
Strongest winds and areas we will be keeping an eye on will include
the West Coast, Brooks Range, Middle Tanana Valley, Alaska Ranges
Passes, and across the Dalton Highway Summits where Winter Storm
Watches were issued.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...(Mostly same as previous)
Saturday through next Wednesday.
Models remain in reasonable agreement through the weekend, as a
front from the Gulf of Alaska lifts north all the way to the North
Slope as the trough axis deepens, forming a closed low over Western
Alaska. Upper level ridging over Siberia and Western Canada will
help focus snow chances and gusty winds over Northern Alaska, with
strongest winds expected for the West Coast, Brooks Range, Middle
Tanana Valley, Alaska Ranges Passes, and across higher elevations.
That closed upper level low over Western Alaska will help to keep
winds elevated through the weekend as snow chances persist, with
highest snow totals through the event focused in the Alaska Range
and Interior. A first look at snow totals shows around 1-5" across
the Interior (highest across north-central) and 3-8" through Alaska
Range Passes, with lesser amounts along the West Coast and North
Slope. With this front, temperatures are expected to see a warming
trend through the weekend with warmest conditions expected in
Southcentral north through the Alaska Range into the Southern
Interior. This is where the intrusion of warmer 850 mb temperatures
are expected, while 850 mb temperatures further north and west
remain in the 20s/30s below zero which will help keep conditions
colder.
Looking ahead towards early next week, a low around 970-980 mb will
lift north through the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday, setting
the stage to allow for several additional low pressure systems to
follow suit towards Northern Alaska. The most important feature
continues to be the frontal boundary separating warmer air to the
east, colder air to the west, and precipitation chance in between.
Models have wavered back and forth in regard to the location of the
front with a recent trend farther east between systems early next
week. If that materializes then cold temperatures of 30/40 below
zero would return northwest of the frontal boundary. There continues
to be a signal for an Alaska Range Chinook event toward the middle
to end of next week, which would warm temperatures above our latest
forecast. We will continue to monitor heading into next week and
ensemble means are pointing towards broad upper level ridging
returning to Northern Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>810.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&
$$
197
FXAK68 PAFC 071446
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The end is in sight for the long duration, widespread snow for
most of the region. The surface low is currently south of
Hinchinbrook Island and will continue to slowly move southeast
through the day today. Blizzard conditions are likely reaching
their peak intensity for Whittier early this morning and winds
will slowly decrease over the next 24 hours as the low moves away
and dissipates. For today, snow will taper off from west to east,
with the west facing mountain ranges and the Central Chugach
having lingering light snow through midday to late afternoon.
Temperatures are likely to fall through the day today as the cold
airmass moves into the area. Things will bottom out Thursday
morning with many areas reaching 15 to 30 below, and the Copper
Valley dropping to 40 below once again.
Our focus then shifts to a strong front and inverted trough moving
into the Gulf Thursday with the low center south of Kodiak on
Friday. With this front, a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for
Kodiak Island from 3pm Thursday to 3pm Friday for Blizzard
conditions and heavy snowfall. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the orientation of the front and overall low
track, particularly in how this will relate to the thermodynamic
profile. There is high confidence that the onset of the event will
have blizzard conditions due to the very cold airmass out in front
of the system/front. As time goes on, any northwest progression of
the front will introduce warm air and cause a mix or rain
throughout the event.
For the rest of the region, a whole myriad of potential impacts
are expected. Along the coastal mountain ranges and their
respective Fjord dwelling communities, light to moderate snow and
north winds are expected to develop Thursday evening, continuing
through Friday. Blizzard conditions are looking likely for
Thompson Pass by Friday morning. For the Cook Inlet regions and
Mat-Su, north winds developing first on the western Kenai and
then moving north will loft our newly fallen, low density snow.
Additional very light snow is likely Friday as the front moves
overhead, but generally conditions will be downsloped until later
in the week. Temperatures will warm by late Friday and Saturday,
feeling downright balmy after our long duration cold snap. This
system, and it`s impacts will continue through the weekend, so
stay tuned to the forecast.
-CJ
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Key Messages:
* Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills expected across
Southwest Alaska, with this event likely to be colder and more
widespread than previous cold air outbreaks. The Cold Weather
Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning.
* The Winter Storm Watch for the Pribilofs has been upgraded to a
Blizzard Warning today through Thursday afternoon. Saint George
Island is expected to receive the brunt of the snow and winds.
* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the southern
Alaska Peninsula, primarily for False Pass, King Cove, and Sand
Point. Snow and blowing snow expected this afternoon through
Thursday afternoon.
* A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Adak, Atka and Unalaska
for possible Blizzard conditions Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon.
* Arctic air and gusty winds will bring potential for extreme
freezing spray along the ice edge.
The upper-level arctic trough remains firmly entrenched over the
interior of western Alaska. This has brought a sudden return to
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill from the Kuskokwim Delta
south to the Alaska Peninsula. This airmass will remain in place
through Friday with temperatures continuing to drop over the next
48 hours. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from Wednesday
evening through Saturday evening, though there is potential for
frigid temperatures and wind chills to linger for longer.
With the push of a secondary front, snow and gusty winds move over
the Southern Alaska Peninsula. Snow and blowing snow are expected
from Sand Point west to False Pass. Highest snow amounts are
expected for False Pass and King Cove, with total snow amounts of
6 to 10 inches possible. Cold Bay and Sand Point may see up to 3
inches of snow accumulation. The heaviest snow is expected to
taper off through Thursday afternoon, through light snow and gusty
winds may continue through Thursday night, reducing visibilities
at times.
Cold northerly air plunges south behind the low over the Central
and Eastern Aleutians Thursday night. Gale force to storm force
wind gusts behind the low, along with a switch back to snow, may
allow for blizzard conditions for Adak, Atka, and Unalaska
Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible. A Blizzard Watch has been issued to highlight
this possibility. Stay tuned for further updates.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
No major changes to the previous discussion:
An Arctic air mass will be in place across much of the southern
Mainland at the start of the period on Friday, with a deep upper
level low initially centered over Southcentral. A narrow ridge
will likely be in place across parts of the Bering Sea, extending
from the North Pacific into parts of Northeast Russia and
Kamchatka. A frontal system associated with a low moving south of
Atka will bring strong easterly winds and rain/snow south of the
Bering ridge along much of the Aleutian Chain on Thursday,
changing back to snow from west to east along the Chain through
Friday as the front slides back to south and colder air drives
south across the Bering. Strong northeast surface winds will
likely be ongoing along the Southwest Coast and out across much of
the Bering Sea as a strong north-south pressure gradient combines
with strong westerly cold advection of Arctic air from Southwest.
This will likely support areas of heavy freezing spray across the
eastern Bering Sea, especially within close proximity to the sea
ice edge until winds begin to weaken and turn more northerly on
Friday.
A very active pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as
the upper level pattern amplifies with time. The upper low/trough
over Southcentral will retrograde west through the weekend,
becoming part of a deepening longwave trough setting up across the
Bering and Aleutians. At the same time, a longwave ridge will
develop downstream of the main upper trough, building steadily
into the eastern Gulf and Southeast through Sunday. This will put
Southcentral squarely within the prevailing storm track between
the very cold Arctic air building over northern/western Alaska and
the much warmer Pacific air and high pressure building into the
Gulf and Southeast. This could extend a period of major volatility
in temperatures and precipitation already getting started this
week for part of Southcentral and along the western Alaska Range
in Southwest Alaska into the weekend. Multiple large swings
between periods of cold temperatures and drier conditions and
warmer temperatures with light to moderate snow will be possible
as a series of lows move north into the region within a corridor
of southerly flow setting up between the ridge to the southeast
and trough to the northwest.
Meanwhile, most of Southwest will stay colder and drier through
the weekend as the Arctic air mass remains entrenched in place.
Much of the Aleutian Chain could see periods of ocean-effect snow
showers through Monday as cold air streaming south modifies and
picks up moisture from the warmer ocean surface.
-AS/TM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions should improve quickly to VFR this morning
though some lingering north winds may continue drifting snow
through around noon today.
&&
$$
749
FXAK67 PAJK 080037
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Strong weather system incoming for late Thursday night into
Friday with multiple hazards possible.
- Moderate to Heavy rainfall possible the the panhandle Friday
timeframe. Flood Watch issued for most of the panhandle.
- High wind possible for the south. High Wind Watch issued for
the south.
- More snow possible for the north. Winter Storm Watch issued
for the Haines and Skagway areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A cold front and shortwave trough has sweeped
across the area from west to east, taking a vast majority of the
showers along with it. Behind the front, while moisture is
somewhat lacking, strong lapse rates and topographic influences
from westerly flow is generating scattered snow showers across the
area. Expect these to be very variable in nature, but the midpoint
for snow accumulation overall is around 2 inches every 12 hours.
Thursday morning, dry air being injected in from the west look to
reduce chances down to the occasional isolated shower. Thursday
night sees the beginning of the warm front from the atmospheric
river move into the southern panhandle. See the long term for more
information on this atmospheric river; but what can be said is
snow is expected on the leading edge of this warm front, so expect
to see accumulating snow overnight tomorrow night. At this point,
we are seeing below advisory criteria, around 3 inches in 12
hours, partially do to the strong warming aloft creating heavy
snow with low snow ratios.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Major storm incoming for
Friday into Friday night that has a minor to moderate atmospheric
river associated with it. The main forecast challenges with it
are three fold. First is how much snow various area are going to
get before the southerly flow warms places enough to change snow
to rain. Currently it is looking like the timing for change over
will be late Thursday night for the south, early Friday for the
central panhandle, and Friday morning for the Icy Strait, Juneau
area. Snowfall amounts will vary depending on when the timing of
the warm up occurs for various areas. Current thinking has a few
inches of snow for the south before change over, increasing
amounts (3 to 6 inches) into the central panhandle, Icy Strait
area, and Juneau. Haines and Skagway areas are the exception as
they could stay snow for most of the event. Current thinking has
them staying snow until Friday evening when stronger southerly
winds start to work into there, and even then the inland areas and
upper elevations along the highways could not see a change over
to rain at all. Winter storm watches have been issued for that
area as a result.
Second, once an area changes over to rain, the concern becomes
more on flooding from the 1 to 4 inches of rain that is expected
to possibly fall through Friday night. Southern panhandle does not
have as much snowpack as the north so the concern there is just
on the amount of rain and the possibly of isolated landslides due
to the rainfall and the gusty winds expected with this front.
Farther north, the concern is more on the rain on the frankly
deep snow pack around Icy Strait and Juneau and how any melt and
runoff does not really have anywhere to go. A lot of storm drains
and ditches are full of snow and ice right now so many areas may
see ponding of water in areas that normally do not see this. A
flood watch has been issued for most of the panhandle for Friday
into Saturday as a result of these expectations. Yakutat has been
left out as we are not expecting quite as much rain there, and
Haines and Skagway were also left out as they will mostly be snow
during the event (though even they could see some ponding of water
if/when the they actually warm above freezing).
Third, this is a windy front and strong southerly winds are
expected to impact the southern panhandle Friday. 850 to 950 mb
winds above the southern panhandle are pushing 70 to 80 kt Friday
mainly at southern Clarence Strait. This translates to near 60 mph
gusts at the surface so a high wind watch has also been issued
for the southern panhandle on Friday.
Farther out into the weekend and next week, SW flow and a possible
series of systems will keep the panhandle mostly warm and wet
through early to mid next week. Not a lot of confidence on exactly
when and where the individual systems will impact the area, but
the general trend is warm (temps mostly remaining above freezing
for many sea level areas and snow levels around 1500 to 3000 ft
panhandle wide), and wet (potential for upwards of a few inches of
rain late weekend into mid next week for low elevations). Highest
rainfall amounts will likely be over the south during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers remain over the area causing variable flying
conditions. Heaviest snow showers have reduced visibilities below 2
SM as low as 1/4 SM at times. Along with reduced visibilities,
ceilings have dropped to below 1500 ft as low as 600 ft at times.
These showers also create times of sporadic and gusty winds as they
move over the area. Between showers, VFR ceilings and visibilities
prevail, even with times of clear skies. These showers will continue
throughout the evening, with slightly diminishing snow rates late
tonight into Thursday. Even with a diminishing trend, these snow
showers will continue to be the main impact and hazard into
tomorrow. The next, more organized, system begins to make its way
over the panhandle Thursday afternoon to evening moving south to
north.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer Coastal Waters: Near gale to gale force west to
southwesterlies continue to move into the area, but are expected
to diminish as the low in the NE gulf coast fills. Strong SW
swell from 18-22 ft look to diminish steadily over the next 48
hours. Wave heights of 20-25 ft. look to following in kind,
dropping down to 8-10 ft.
Inner channels: South to southwesterly winds remain mostly
stagnant, hovering around a moderate to fresh breeze through
Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decline briefly going
into Thursday afternoon as the next system comes in from the
south. Lynn Canal is expected to switch out of the north
Wednesday night as the incoming warm front moves northward.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Off and on showers will continue through mid week as a low in the
NE Gulf sends waves of precipitation across the area. Looking
towards the end of the week, the next organized system will push
an atmospheric river into the panhandle late Thursday night
through Friday. This system will bringing rounds of moderate to
heavy rainfall and rapidly rising freezing levels for communities
across the panhandle.
For the northern panhandle, current forecast rainfall amounts are
around 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts approaching 3
inches at higher terrain. This rainfall in combination with rapidly
rising freezing levels around 2000 to 3000ft by Friday afternoon
into the weekend. This rainfall in combination with rapidly rising
freezing levels around 2000 to 3000ft through Friday afternoon will
lead to localized flooding concerns like ponding on road ways and
poor drainage due to snow blocking drains along and north of the Icy
Strait Corridor, including but not limited to Juneau, Gustavus,
and Hoonah. Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway will likely not see as
much potential for flooding due to not as much rainfall expected
for the former and precip mostly staying snow for most of the
event in the latter two cases.
For the central and southern panhandle, current forecast rainfall
amounts are around 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts
approaching 5 inches at higher terrain. This rainfall in combination
with rapidly rising freezing levels around 3000 to 5000ft will lead
to localized flooding concerns like rapid river rises on small
streams, ponding on road ways and poor drainage due to snow blocking
drains along and south of a line from Sitka to Angoon to Petersburg.
For all of the panhandle, any existing snowpack will become more
dense and hard to move by Friday. Additionally, hard pack snow on
driveways, parking lots, and sidewalks will become very icy.
Preparations should begin for an expected rain on snow event going
into the weekend. Stay tuned for further forecast updates on this
system moving through the week.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
for AKZ318-319.
Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for
AKZ320>332.
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661>663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...EAL
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