992
FXAK68 PAFC 150236
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 PM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

* A major shift in the pattern will bring widespread weather
impacts to Southcentral Thursday through Friday. An atmospheric
river will bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and much
warmer temperatures. Snow will arrive Thursday and transition to
rain for most areas by Thursday afternoon or evening. Colder air
will move back in on Friday, leading to a change back to snow
before precipitation ends.

* Rain falling on cold snow covered roads and surfaces will lead
to hazardous travel conditions. There is also potential for
localized flooding, especially if drains are blocked by snow and
ice.

* Strong winds will accompany the heavy precipitation, especially
for the Gulf coastal waters, Kenai Peninsula, and the typical
gaps such as Turnagain Arm/Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides,
Knik Arm, and the Copper River. Winds will spread inland Friday.

* Warnings and Advisories have been posted for most of the region.
Visit weather.gov/afc for a summary of Warnings/Advisories and
to find the forecast for your specific area.

A major pattern change is underway with a digging trough over the
north-central Pacific and an amplifying downstream ridge over the
east Pacific up toward the Gulf and Southcentral. An atmospheric
river has formed in the Pacific and is now headed northward toward
southern Alaska. A deep surface low with leading warm front is
tracking northward toward the Alaska Peninsula. A couple short-
waves just ahead of the amplifying ridge are producing areas of
snow in Southcentral and Kodiak Island. This snow will be
insignificant compared with what is on the way for the next couple
days.

Model guidance has really been struggling the last couple days
with key features in the pattern change, but is now converging on
a common solution. Thus, forecast confidence is vastly improved.
Still, it is a complex scenario, with strong winds, warming
temperatures, a transition from snow to rain for most areas, and
heavy precipitation. Thus, forecast confidence in the details is
about average. No doubt, additional changes to the forecast will
be required, particularly for precipitation amounts from the
western Kenai north through Anchorage and the Mat-Valley.
However, a host of Warnings and Advisories have been issued to
highlight the most impactful weather, please see those for more
details.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

Key Message:

Winter Weather Advisories stretch from the Alaska Peninsula to
much of coastal and interior Southwest Alaska. There is a Winter
Storm Warning in effect for Dillingham northward to Sleetmute and
Crooked Creek until midnight Thursday night.

Discussion:

A high amplitude pattern is in place with a blocking ridge over
far eastern Russia, an upper low over the Beaufort Sea with a
trough extending southwestward across the heart of the Bering Sea,
and a downstream ridge along the west coast of CONUS and British
Columbia.

A compact surface low is on track to impact the central
Aleutians, including Adak and Atka, this evening. Adak is still on
track to see some of the strongest winds while Atka will see some
of the heaviest snow.

The Bering trough will dig all the way south into the North
Pacific, with multiple short-waves phasing and consolidating into
a single trough tonight. Meanwhile, a ridge will rapidly amplify
to the east from the Northeast Pacific to mainland Alaska. The
consolidated trough will then lift northward up the west side of
the ridge and bring impactful weather to southern AK Thursday
through Friday. Models have slowly been coming into better
agreement, increasing our forecast confidence enough to issue
Winter Storm Advisories and a Winter Storm Warning for Dillingham
northward to Crooked Creek and Sleetmute.

Since yesterday, models have been trending further north and west
with the low, leading to a trend towards stronger winds and
increasing warm air advection into the Mainland. This has
increased the risk of blowing snow on the cold side of the first
surface low. As such, we`re monitoring the potential for
visibility reductions in blowing snow for Kuskokwim Delta and the
western portion of Kuskokwim Valley, as well as Southern Alaska
Peninsula. It`s not out of the question that Kuskokwim Delta and
the Northern Bristol Bay coast, where north to northeast winds
will be strongest, may see a very brief window of blizzard
conditions before substantial warming, eliminating blowing snow
potential.

Additionally, when precipitation types will transition (and
therefore, how much precipitation falls as snow versus freezing
rain versus plain rain) seems to be faster in today`s runs than 24
hours ago. Models have been trending towards warmer surface
temperatures, especially as the latest low track will likely spur
easterly winds off Kamishak Bay and into the Bristol Bay interior.
This means that parts of Bristol Bay could see precipitation
change completely over to rain with surface temperatures warming
well into the mid 30s. Many questions remain regarding the
forecast for Thursday into midday Friday. Still, confidence is
fairly high that this will be a wet system, so no matter what form
precipitation takes, expect it to be wet, messy, and likely
impactful after the recent spell of colder and drier conditions.

Looking ahead to Friday, another low barrels north across the
Aleutian Islands and the Eastern Bering Sea, and could bring a
quick return to active weather after tomorrow`s storm moves out of
the area.

-AM/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A ridge of high pressure starts to build across the Gulf and
mainland Alaska. Southerly flow becomes the predominant weather
feature across the Aleutians and through the Bering Sea as a broad
trough settles near Kamchatka and the western Bering Sea.
Embedded within the wide swath of southerly flow, weak surface
lows may nudge as far east as the western Gulf of Alaska and
Kodiak Island. Southwest Alaska could get additional snow and/or
wintry mix through Sunday. However, most of the vigorous systems
will be coming from the North Pacific and projected to track
through the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. Specific details with
the models differ with the strength and timing of each system.
Periods of gale force winds (39 to 54 mph) will likely frequent
the Aleutians and the Bering Sea with each surface low that passes
northward. Gusts to storm force (at least 55 mph) will be
possible Sunday afternoon through the overnight period into Monday
morning and again with another trailing low on Tuesday.

Warmer air moving in this weekend will continue to feed into
Alaska from the Pacific with every successive low moving north.
Even Southcentral can expect some warming temperatures. Southern
mainland Alaska can expect this weekend to begin above normal for
this time of year, then Southcentral will trend to a more
moderated and seasonal temperature by the middle of next week. Any
clear skies could potentially lead to inverted temperatures with
height (warming at higher elevations compared to the surface),
especially toward the Copper Basin and surrounding terrain where
the ridge axis is projected to comfortably sit. Southwest Alaska
and westward, odds however, is leaning more towards slightly
above normal temperatures.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light southerly winds will become northerly overnight.
Winds look to increase across the Chugach Mountains Thu morning
after 12Z and low-level wind shear will be possible over the
terminal starting around 21Z. With northerly winds remaining over
the terminal, directional shear potential will more than likely
remain until Fri morning. The limiting factor will be the depth of
northerly winds and the altitude level of the wind shear. Snow
becomes increasingly likely Thu morning after 12Z. There may be a
break in the precipitation Thu afternoon, but chances for a wintry
mix increase again Fri after 06Z.

&&

$$

914
FXAK67 PAJK 150036
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SHORT TERM...
As of 2pm Wednesday morning our energetic storm force low has
jumped into the Yukon, with storm force winds subsiding across the
inside. Some light rain is out and about from moist southwest
onshore flow, keeping some shower activity on through the day. A
juicy chunk of convection driving thunderstorms is currently
reaching the coast, bringing graupel/sleet along with some
lightning and gusty winds. Overnight Wednesday a prominent ridge
builds across the area bringing much quieter weather for
southeast. Expect precip to trend down and winds to slacken;
exception will be the northern coast. Friday a plume of moisture
will move toward the northern coast bringing rain to sea level
locations from Cape St. Elias toward Sitka and north.

.LONG TERM...Relatively quiet way to end the week and continuing
far into next week. Ridging aloft and strong WWA Friday looks to
mostly dry out the mid and upper layer of the atmosphere, which
also directs the late week atmospheric river toward the Anchorage
area. Residual moisture, light winds from a lax pressure gradient
and little sunlight, and some clearing, particularly in the
southern half, will pave the way for widespread fog concerns,
particularly overnight Friday and overnight Saturday. Going into
next week, comparatively weak surface ridging in Canada look to
bring in enough cold air to the panhandle to bring us back from
our above normal temperatures down to near normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
Variable flying conditions continue as showers move over
the area. Ceilings remain AoA 2500 ft with visibilities AoA 6 SM.
The lowest of these conditions occur when moderate showers move over
an area. Showers will continue to be the main story through
tomorrow. Along with these showers, isolated thunderstorms along the
gulf from Sitka to the Fairweather area have occurred throughout the
day. These thunderstorms are not too strong, but they can create
isolated lightning strikes and sporadic and gusty winds.

Precipitation should mainly remain as rain throughout the TAF
period, but there is a chance that temperatures near Yakutat drop
just enough to have precipitation fall as snow or mainly a rain/snow
mix. This change in precipitation type would occur just overnight
before we start to see temperatures once again increase tomorrow
morning.

There continues to be a chance of fog developing overnight due to
clearing conditions and a building ridge over the southern
panhandle. This fog will continue to be a main impact, especially
over the south, into the weekend. This fog can easily reduce
visibilities to below 2 SM to as low as 1/4 SM.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters):
As of 2pm Wednesday winds across the eastern gulf and northern
coast are southwest, reaching fresh to strong breezes. Sea state
overnight was intense, with 84 reaching 34ft at 15 seconds from an
extensive dynamic fetch of storm force winds. One note, 84 was on
the eastern flank of this fetch, with near 40ft seas likely
impacting coastal areas near the Fairweather grounds. This
afternoon sea state is relaxing, with a prominent southerly focus
of wave energy at 11 to 13 seconds 13 to 17 ft. A secondary wave
system is present, wind waves generated from SW post frontal fresh
to strong breezes, driving west southwest seas focused at 6 to 8
seconds near 8 to 10 ft. Anticipating winds to continue to trend
downward through the next 12 hours for the gulf, with southerly
seas bottoming out near 10 to 13 ft. Thursday a gale force system
will lift toward the AK Peninsula, freshening up easterly winds
along the northern coast to gale force, with Cape Suckling seeing
localized storm force conditions by Thursday night. Fresh seas of
20 ft are forecasted for the northern coast by Thursday night.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Storm force winds that impacted many inner channels early
Wednesday morning continue to subside this afternoon, with winds
as of 2pm Wednesday near moderate to fresh breezes across much of
the region. Onshore flow continues to push showers over the
Panhandle, with a slight chance of thunderstorms into Wednesday
evening. Main threat will be gusty winds in the vicinity of these
showers. Overnight winds slacken bringing some fog concerns for
protected areas. Light winds continue Thursday with much of the
channels seeing winds less than 20 knots. Lynn Canal will be the
exception, anticipate strong breezes out of the south to continue
Wednesday night into early Thursday, diminishing into the evening.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-034-053-
641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...AP

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