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287
FXAK69 PAFG 171316
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 AM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues for a good portion of the West Coast as a
another system will be moving east from the Bering. This system
is looking to have a more abundant moisture content. As this
second front shifts east, the associated low over the Chukotsk
Peninsula will move over the NW Arctic Coast. This will allow for
the system to progress across the Interior and bring another round
of high ratio snow to the Central Interior on Wednesday and
Thursday. Widespread snowfall across the Central Interior is
expected to be between 6 and 12 inches, with the heaviest amounts
expected between Tanana and Fairbanks. However, some other
locations may see some localized convective banding which may
produce heavy snowfall rates at times.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Quiet today and tonight with chilly temperatures mostly near or
slightly below zero for highs and into the 20s and 30s below
tonight.
- Clouds move back with snow developing from west to east
tonight. A steady light to moderate snow is expected on
Wednesday and there can be several inches of snow. Snow will
continue periodically through Friday.
- Areas in, north, and west of Fairbanks is expected to see
totals between 6 and 10 inches. Some localized areas may see
totals between 12 and 15 inches as some heavier bands are
possible along the front.
- The rest of the Interior will see snow totals between 4 and 7
inches with this frontal passage
- Remnants of this system will linger across the Interior,
allowing for more isolated snow showers through the end of the
week. Colder temperatures in the 10 to 20 below zero will return
for much of the Interior as the snow tapers off.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A strong front has begun to move onshore and blizzard conditions
will continue to progress north throughout the morning. Blizzard
conditions may linger into the evening hours over the northern
Kotzebue Sound, as winds will remain elevated.
- Another round of snow moves through today through Wednesday with
less slightly weaker winds. A more abundant amount of moisture
is expected to accompany this system.
- Snow amounts will range from 6 to 12 inches along most of the
coast to up to 15 inches of snow in the Kobuk Valley.
- See weather.gov/afg and check your location for the most
detailed information.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Mostly quiet weather for the North Slope and Brooks Range today.
- A front continues to bring strong wind and light snow to the
Western Brooks Range/Chukchi Sea Coast and blizzard conditions
to Point Hope and potentially Point Lay as winds gust 40 to 60
mph. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight.
- South winds increase with gusts to 50 mph in Anaktuvuk and
Atigun Pass this morning, lasting through Wednesday evening.
This may result in areas of blowing snow to 1/2 mile.
- On the south side of the Brooks Range, light snow moves in tonight
with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected in Coldfoot and along the
Dalton Highway through Wednesday night.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A strong Bering low continues to spin over the Chukotsk Peninsula,
swinging a series of fronts across the state. The first of the two
fronts have begun to taper off as it continues to track to the
E/NE. Another system, with a more abundant moisture content, will
follow behind this system and begin dropping snow across a good
portion of the West Coast beginning this morning. Winds are not
expected to be as strong, however another round of heavy snowfall
will accompany this system bringing widespread 6 to 12 inches
across the West Coast.
Unlike the first system, as this system moves eastward, the
associated low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will begin to shift
eastward toward the NE Arctic Coast. This will allow for better
moisture transport across the Interior. In addition, CAMs and
global models are showing the potential for a heavy swath of snow
to fall across the Central Interior. Model soundings continue to
show the potential for a deep DGZ, along with favorable omega
values. The cold air advection behind this system will also feed
in, allowing for lapse rates to deepen and allow the potential
for some convective snow showers within this system. Some of the
recent runs of the CAMs are beginning to show CAPE values between
50 and 70 J/kg across the Central Interior by Wednesday night.
With that said, this is expected to be a high ratio snow event for
the Central Interior with values between 6 and 12 inches, if not
more in areas that receive some of the convective banding.
Behind this front, a strong ridge will be building over the Bering
as another low shifts north over Siberia. At the same time,
energy from this second front will develop a new low and dig a
trough into the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a bit of a
deformation pattern for much of the state. This will allow for
scattered snow showers to continue through the end of the week,
until the ridge from the Bering shifts further east.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Another cooling trend is expected to follow by the end of the
week as models are in agreement in a ridge building up over the
Bering and a trough digging south into the Gulf of Alaska.
Looking at tee 500mb pattern, models are showing a shortwave
riding up and over the ridge Sunday into Monday. There is a bit of
disagreement as the EC shows a more pronounced breakdown as the
shortwave rides up. These variations are also resulting in a vast
difference in solutions as the next week begins. With the
shortwave, some are also showing the slightest of chances for a
wintry mix for the YK-Delta over the weekend. With all of the
different outcomes currently in place, this will continue to be
monitored closely over the next several days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-815-817.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-823-824.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818-826.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820>822-825-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-828-829.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ834-838>847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ807>811-855>857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
&&
$$
Twombly
212
FXAK68 PAFC 171436
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Discussion:
Much of Southcentral remains quiet weather-wise this morning...with
the exception of Kodiak where an incoming front and developing
surface low have brought moderate snow to the island overnight. The
heavier snow rates are expected to wind down in the next few hours
as the surface low dives southwards; however, light snow showers may
linger through midmorning. The back edge of this frontal boundary is
defined nicely on water vapor imagery with tropopause fold extending
up along the western AKPEN and into central Alaska. This front will
continue to push east this morning as the midlevel shortwave
translates up and over the ridge. A broad expanse of light radar
returns from the Kenai radar (PAHG) was also noted this morning, but
most of these returns are clouds, especially higher than 3 kft,
and a substantial dry layer between 3-10 kft will limit how much
precipitation makes it to the surface. Better chances for some
light snow as this front approaches will exist from Kenai
southwards to Homer with little to no snow accumulations anticipated.
The ridge will quickly build back over the region by this afternoon
which will set the stage for the development of low stratus and fog
for the typical areas tonight. The ridge will shift eastwards as the
next system approaches from the west. Several weak shortwaves will
move through the flow with light snow possible across Anchorage, the
Hillside, Palmer, and across the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. This trough isn`t particularly strong and
will move through rather quickly on Wednesday. Snowfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches will be common for the areas previously mentioned, but
localized higher amounts are possible for the Talkeetna Mountains
and the western slopes of the Chugach. This system will also bring
light snow to the Copper Basin as it moves through. A push of arctic
air behind this system will usher in colder temperatures and
another chance for strong gap winds later this week.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...
Currently, a front is moving through the Southwest Mainland,
bringing snowfall from Bristol Bay to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
The front will break up over the Alaska Range and precipitation
will end by late this morning. Meanwhile, another front is moving
through the Bering, pushing toward the mainland. This second front
will arrive by the early afternoon, allowing for snowfall and
gusty winds over the Kuskokwim Delta. Due to the threat of
blowing snow and reduced visibility, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta from noon to early
Wednesday morning. Once the front pushes inland, Bristol Bay and
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will see a round of snowfall by
Wednesday morning. There is a chance of freezing rain mixed with
snow in Bristol Bay, particularly in the Northern Bristol Bay
coast as warmer air rises aloft. Behind this front lies weak
ridging/zonal flow. This will allow conditions to improve with
lower winds speeds and precipitation chances.
By Thursday, an Arctic trough will dip into Alaska and cold air
advection will follow. Temperatures will decrease over Thursday,
reaching the negatives in much of the Southwest Mainland by the
night time. Gap winds will in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula are possible due to cold air and the trough dipping
down. The Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley may
reach the negative tens. The Bering will be relatively inactive
with a large ridge over it. This will change on Friday when a
front pushes into the Bering. This front moves eastward over the
day, dragging a plume of moisture and gusty southerly winds along
with it. Due to southerly flow, warmer air will move into the
Bering, allowing precipitation to be predominantly rain.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...
An upper level trough moving across western Alaska is expected to
dip south into the Gulf on Friday. This will transition the
pattern to a more amplified setup, with strong ridging building
over the Bering while a deeper trough develops across the Gulf of
Alaska. The trough will bring in an arctic airmass, spreading
across much of the Southwest and into Southcentral Alaska.
Conditions tend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing combined with cold air in place will support
radiational cooling and colder overnight lows. In addition,
northerly winds are expected to increase through most coastal gaps
along the Gulf coast as cold dense air moves south towards lower
pressure in over the Gulf. Although confidence in strength and
timing remains low at this time, the communities of Valdez,
Seward, and the Matanuska Valley will likely see strong winds
through the weekend.
By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances may begin
to return to the western portions of Alaska, though confidence in
timing remains low.
LM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
prevail through much of the taf period. High pressure building
back over the region tonight will increase chances for fog
development.
&&
$$
333
FXAK67 PAJK 171412
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
512 AM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Strong north and northeast winds continue slightly diminishing
throughout the day Tuesday. Winds will relax late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
- Temperatures continue to trend down through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Dry weather, clear skies, and cool and windy
conditions abound for SE AK through Tuesday, as northerly outflow
winds continue across the inner channels.
Aloft, a strong ridge over the Gulf of AK will dive SE as the
strong southern stream jet moves back southward, leaving behind a
substantially weaker northern stream jet in its wake. Although
another (weaker) ridge will attempt to rebuild and move over the
area courtesy of the northern stream jet, the effects near the
surface will still be pronounced. Namely, the collapse of the
outflow winds. Gale Force outflow winds coinciding with storm
force gusts and a Taku wind event for Juneau will all enter a
downward trend by Tuesday night, and through Wednesday winds will
drop down into the ~10 - 15 kt range over most maritime locations.
Temperature wise, the collapse of the winds will undermine
downsloping`s mitigating impacts on cold temperatures, and low
temperatures for Tuesday night will reach the single digits or low
teens for many locations near sea level. No precip expected
through the day on Tuesday as a front currently over the Western
Gulf disintegrates as it moves east, although a clipper out of the
NW will bring some accumulating snow by the latter half of
Wednesday. For additional details, see the long term forecast
discussion.
.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday / Upper level ridge
moves into the panhandle through Wednesday as short wave advances
across the Alaskan Mainland. This trough is supporting a weather
front/trough moving across the northern gulf and will also help to
diminish outflow winds for Wed into Fri. The feature will slide
southeast along the panhandle, possibly pushing some light
precipitation (snow) to the inner channels. Not expecting any
significant snow accumulations from the weak system though a few
inches is not out of the question especially for the outer coast.
After the short wave moves south, High pressure over Northwest
Canada will restart the outflow pattern for the Northern inner
channels and out of interior valleys of the Northeast Gulf
coast starting as early as Friday afternoon or night. This
outflow event looks like it will be stronger then the outflow that
is currently ongoing with gale force winds being more widespread
across the northern inner channels. Lynn Canal might also hit min
storm force. With the outflow, temperatures will be cooling down
again so freezing spray will be a widespread marine threat again
headed into next weekend particularly for the northern inner
channels with heavy freezing spray a possibility in Lynn Canal
and near Taku Inlet.
&&
.AVIATION.../through 12z Wednesday/...Widespread VFR conditions
continue with a few areas still holding on to slightly stronger
winds this morning. Winds will continue to decrease throughout
Tuesday, eventually becoming AoB 10 kts across SE AK. A few areas,
including Juneau, Skagway, and Wrangell will continue to see some
gusty conditions through the TAF period with infrequent gusts to
around 20 to 25 kts. Similar to winds, LLWS will continue to
decrease through this morning. An exception to this is Juneau
where LLWS is likely to continue into tomorrow with 30 to 40 kt
winds around 2000ft.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
Offshore flow from the channels diminishes through the day on
Tuesday. Seas are on their way down, with residual NW seas,
masking SW swell generated from a system a few days ago south of
the Aleutians. Significant heights less than 12ft by Tuesday
afternoon, and between 5-9 feet on Wednesday, with the highest
seas over the open Gulf. Mariners should be aware of northerly
outflow out of major inlets/bays along the northern coast,
reaching gale to strong gale force, generating moderate to heavy
freezing spray through the daytime hours on Tuesday.
Inside (Inner channels):
Tuesday dawns with gale force winds are howling across the
northern and central inner channels, along with usual outflow
areas. The current forecast maintains sustained winds of strong
gale force in Lynn Canal, with widespread gales along and north of
Sumner Strait through Tuesday. These winds will generate freezing
spray, with moderate to heavy freezing spray for prime areas like
northern Lynn and Taku Inlet. Expect winds to slowly diminishing
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with moderate to fresh breezes
expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. However,
Friday evening winds are expected to ramp back up to gale force
for most central/northern channels with the threat of heavy
freezing spray becoming more extensive.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ325.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-031.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-053.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-643-644-651-663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-053-641-642-661-662-664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GFS/AP
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