586
FXAK68 PAFC 241307
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

IR satellite imagery from early this morning shows the low that
has been in the central Gulf the past two days has moved eastward
along with its shower activity. There are a few showers still
rotating around the low in the western Gulf that could move
across Kodiak today, but other than that, this low is becoming
less of a factor in the weather over Southcentral. Mid and high
level clouds associated with a weak upper level low can be seen
over southern Cook Inlet, but these clouds will dissipate as that
low continues its journey westward. Other than that, weak ridging
aloft is keeping most of Southcentral clear this morning. Most of
Southcentral, but not all of it. Fog-fest 2025 is entering its
third day for the Anchorage bowl and the big question is if today
will be the day it finally dissipates and the fog party ends. What
is different about today compared to the past two days is that
there is definite colder and drier air finally moving far enough
south down the Susitna Valley to begin eroding this persistent fog
bank. Temperatures and dew points from Talkeetna to Wasilla are
running 5 to 10 degrees colder than the same time last night. This
is already eroding the western edge of the fog bank as can be
seen on the nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. The fog bank
remains over the Anchorage Bowl, but ends abruptly just west of
the Anchorage airport. This is less widespread than last night,
though it does extend southward past the Kenai and Soldotna areas
this morning. The same thinking goes for the western Kenai
Peninsula: The drier air should erode out most of the fog as the
day progresses. We shall see.

The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island tonight. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.
This front over the western Gulf will push into the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning to
coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large scale pattern stretches from northeastern Russia into the
northern Pacific, with multiple surface lows embedded within the
elongated trough. This setup will support relatively strong
easterly flow across much of the Bering Sea through early this
week. Flow along the Aleutian Chain is expected to be more
variable as the lows move over them. Overall, anticipate small
craft to gale force winds through Tuesday morning for both the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, including the Pribilof Islands,
and precipitation to continue.

For Southwest Alaska, flow remains primarily offshore, promoting a
drier, colder pattern across the region. Temperatures further
inland will be in the teens, with localized areas into the single
digits in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, during the daytime hours.
Overnight, the aforementioned areas can expect temperatures in the
low teens or single digits. Coastal areas of Bristol Bay will be
warmer with daytime temperatures in the upper 20`s to low 30`s
and overnight temperatures in the mid 20`s. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail until late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as an
inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island into Bristol Bay. A
warmer air mass will also move up with the arrival of this
feature, and surface temperatures could even poke up above
freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday. Areas of
light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead of the
incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and the
northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.

Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.

Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.

Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.

Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus across the terminal, as with the last
couple of mornings and days, continues to be the challenge. Unlike
the last couple of days, there is more dry air just above the
surface with the saturated layer near the surface not being as
thick as the past two days. Therefore, fog could mix out at times
today into low stratus or even a low scattered deck. With that,
while IFR to LIFR conditions look to be predominant early this
morning, later in the morning to the afternoon offers better
chances for VFR. This evening into the overnight, an upper-level
shortwave will approach from the north and potentially offer up
some high-level clouds over the area which will help prevent
further radiational cooling. Another ingredient against the fog
case tonight would be greater dew point depressions of 4 to 6
degrees which indicates drier air at the surface. Thus, there are
greater chances for maintaining VFR conditions this evening and
overnight as opposed to this morning.

&&


$$

989
FXAK67 PAJK 250007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers of rain and snow gradually diminishing through Monday
night

- A low tracking toward Haida Gwaii Tuesday will turn generally
southerly winds across the panhandle more northerly by Tuesday
afternoon.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most
of the panhandle.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Showers continue to plague
the panhandle, especially for the northern 2/3rd of the panhandle
and the NE gulf coast. Most areas have been mainly rain, but every
now and then a heavier shower will switch the precip type to snow
even down in the southern panhandle. The exceptions are the
Haines, Skagway, and Yakutat areas where snow has been the
dominate ptype. Overnight snow totals ranged from around 1 to 5
inches with the highest accumulations near Mud Bay near Haines and
near US customs on the Haines Highway.

Snow continues to be observed around Haines at the moment and the
winter weather advisory remains out until 6 pm this evening for
that area. These snow showers will likely continue through this
evening at least with a diminishing trend expected in precip rates
starting in the evening. There may be a few bursts of some
slightly higher snow rates for Haines (one this evening between 0
and 6z, and another weaker one about day break tomorrow, but
neither is expected to produce more then 1 to 2 inches of
additional snow accumulation. Highest amounts likely with the
burst this evening.). For other areas, Skagway and Yakutat will
likely still see some snow showers through Tuesday morning, but
accumulations are expected to only be an inch or two inches at
most. The rest of the panhandle will mainly see rain showers but I
can not rule out a mix with snow especially in heavier showers
overnight with little accumulation. Showers are expected to
diminish Tuesday as overall flow turns more easterly and
northerly and the low sustaining the showers weakens away.

Overall pattern changes Tuesday and Tuesday night as a second low
heads NE across the NE Pacific to be near Haida Gwaii and Dixon
Entrance by Tuesday night. At the same time surface high pressure
in the Yukon will be building to 1030 mb. This will result in a
developing offshore flow pattern with winds across the inner
channels becoming more easterly and northerly. Expect some
increasing northerly winds for Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other
outflow areas starting as early as Tuesday afternoon. Speeds will
not be overly impressive though with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds
expected. Breaks in the cloud cover and drier weather will start
to become apparent across the northern panhandle late Tuesday
night as well. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will still be in
close enough proximity to the low that cloud cover and
precipitation will still be a factor in the forecast. Temperatures
aloft and near the surface should be warm enough by this point
for the precip to mostly be rain with total rainfall amounts
around 0.25 Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...
By Wednesday high pressure across the Yukon and Northwest
Territory will begin to dominate southeast Alaskas weather, with
a decaying low in the southeastern gulf helping to pull cold dry
arctic air from the interior. Translating to impacts, as
precipitation precipitously decreases across the northern
Panhandle Wednesday, multiple days of outflow winds continue. Of
particular concern will be Lynn Canal and west-east inlets like
the Taku, Stikine and the Unuk. Cant forget about our friends up
in Yakutat, where the tight pressure gradient will also bring
elevated northerly winds to Disenchantment Bay. Current forecast
confidence reflects 20 to 30 knots of outflow winds, with several
hours of near-gale force winds likely sometime Thursday or Friday
as the surface pressure gradient reaches its full potential.
Thinking of freezing spray, coastal sea surface temperatures are
in the upper 40s with the inside in the low 40s; areas near major
glacial fed rivers are in the upper 30s. These water temperatures
combined with forecasted air temps in the low to mid 30s mean
limited freezing spray impacts with most concern in the upper
echelons of Lynn Canal and major river inlets. Main threat
continues to be elevated wave heights across the inside, with
significant wave heights of 6 to 8 ft for Lynn Canal Thursday or
Friday.

As mentioned previously a stout storm force low in the central
Pacific could tap into some deeper moisture, pushing this plume,
and a gale force front, toward the Panhandle by the weekend. If
cold air can remain in place along select areas of the inside, we
could see impactful snow in the central Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through Monday night, shower activity will continue to wind down
across the panhandle - though chances of showers (and the potential
for occasional IFR conditions) will hang on longer across the
Northern panhandle and Yakutat, as the weakening low slowly steers
northward. Expect snow to remain predominant in the northern
panhandle, while showers in the southern and central panhandle
remain mainly rain - though some heavier showers could see snow mix
in. IFR conditions with VIS down to 1SM and CIGS to 1000 feet are
possible as showers move Yakutat and Haines. Otherwise, CIGS and
VIS will be on an improving trend from their current MVFR and VFR
conditions, generally rising towards 6SM and 5000 feet for many
locations by the end of Monday night. As general precipitation
trends downward, some breaks in the clouds may be possible across
the parts of the southern and central panhandle, and it is not
entirely inconceivable that a few locations could see patchy fog,
though nothing widespread. By late Tuesday chances of
precipitation will begin increasing across the southern panhandle
as another system begins working its way north. This system will
likely be unable to advance past the southern panhandle on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Generally south to east winds around 15 kt or less
are the rule across the inner channels today. Exceptions include
Young Bay with 25 kt east winds, and Lynn Canal that is still
northerly as of 1 pm. The northerly winds in Lynn Canal should
turn around to the south sometime this afternoon or early evening
as northerly pressure gradients weaken. The southerly component
to the winds should last through early Tuesday before a low starts
to approach the Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance area Tuesday and
high pressure begins to build in the Yukon. At that point the
southerly winds will start to turn northerly with Lynn Canal, Taku
Inlet, and other outflow areas starting to see winds of 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will likely stay SE until late Tuesday
night once the low near Haida Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly
around 3 to 4 ft today and are expected to stay around that height
through Tuesday. Outflow areas may see seas increase to 5 ft
Tuesday night once the winds start increasing.

Gulf Waters: Weakening low SW of Yakutat is bringing mostly
Southerly winds of 15 kt or less to the gulf waters except for
easterly winds near Cape Suckling and Icy Bay this afternoon.
Winds across the eastern gulf will be showing a shift in
directions from southerly to easterly through tonight as the NE
gulf low weakens and a new stronger low heads toward Haida Gwaii.
Winds will also be increasing east of 140W and south of 57N to 25
to 30 kt with gales to 40 kt likely out of Dixon Entrance across
the far southeastern gulf by Tuesday morning. That is as far as
they will top out before starting to decrease into Tuesday night
with most areas below 25 kt by early Wednesday morning. Seas are
generally around 6 ft with a diminishing SW swell of around 4 to 5
ft (period of around 10 sec). Generally expecting the seas to
remain around 6 to 7 ft tonight before they start building to
around 10 to 12 ft by Tuesday evening. This is a result of the
increasing winds from the low heading to Haida Gwaii kicking up
more wind waves from a SE direction. Expect the seas to remain
high into Tuesday night before gradually diminishing into
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-642-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL

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