553
FXAK68 PAFC 240036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Isolated marine lightning over the central Gulf of Alaska is
possible through this evening.

- Clearing skies and cool temperatures will lead to another night
of patchy fog and widespread lows near or below freezing.

- Gap winds return to Southcentral as early as Friday morning out
ahead of a gale force front that will lift northeastward across
the northern Gulf.


Discussion:

The first part of the short term forecast will remain relatively
quiet. Currently, the only real feature of interest is ~1001 mb
low meandering across the eastern Gulf. Due to colder air aloft
steepening lapse rates and therefore increasing instability, an
isolated lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out this evening
across the central to eastern Gulf. Elsewhere, clear skies and
light winds will allow for temperatures to fall quickly tonight
from anywhere from the 20s to near 30 degrees for the Copper River
Basin and Susitna Valley, and overnight lows bottoming out in the
mid 30s for the Anchorage Bowl. Areas of patchy fog are possible
Thursday morning from Big Lake to Talkeetna with a combination of
radiational cooling and residual moisture from recent rainfall.

Attention then quickly shifts to the west where a very strong
system is progged to enter the western Gulf in the form of a gale
force front with storm force gusts by Thursday afternoon. While
the parent area of low pressure remains in the Bering, models show
the front lifting northeastward across the Gulf through the rest
of the short term. Winds will first impact Kodiak Island starting
Thursday afternoon. On the precipitation side of things, rain
chances increase first for Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound locations Thursday afternoon
and periods of locally heavy rain are possible given upslope
enhancement. Coastal ridging is on track to build across the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, which will lead to a gradual
increase in gap winds for the Copper River Basin, Knik River
Valley, and Turnagain Arm. In contrast to coastal locations,
southeasterly winds ahead of the front will create a "downslope
hole" for the Anchorage Bowl, keeping this area mostly dry through
Friday and Saturday as the front continues its trek northeastward
across Kodiak Island. Also, for Friday morning, as the gale force
front aligns with Kamishak Gap, expect these winds to ramp up and
continue through Friday afternoon.

As the east to west oriented pressure gradient maximizes along
the Gulf coast from the coastal ridge Friday afternoon and the
southeasterly winds from the front itself aligns with the
Turnagain Arm, expect Turnagain Arm winds to increase here as
well. Due to the parent low location out west signaling down-inlet
flow, the Anchorage Bowl seems to be less of a concern than the
Hillside, where at elevation wind gusts will likely be ticking up
in the neighborhood of Wind Advisory criteria. The consensus with
this afternoon forecast package is to lean into the 75th
percentile NBM, and it shows that wind gusts fall just short of
Wind Advisory criteria for the Hillside, but it also depicts (as
expected) higher winds just above the Hillside. Current forecast
confidence is still in the medium range (40 to 60 percent) for
Hillside wind gusts, but should this evening and overnight model
runs come in stronger, this will most likely necessitate a wind
hazard product. Conditions could potentially become hazardous from
gusty conditions along the Seward Highway along the Turnagain Arm
late Friday into Saturday morning as the highway could become
clipped with strong wind gusts. Again, the low location out west
will be key in determining the extent of impacts from the
Turnagain Arm wind. As the parent low located over the eastern
Bering begins to move northward, model consensus is that the
Turnagain Arm winds will begin to bend northward, but this
currently does not look to coincide with the strongest winds from
frontal alignment with the Turnagain Arm gap. Stay tuned.


-AM/Rux

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong Bering Sea low is forecast to impact the Bering Sea,
Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, and Southwest Alaska beginning
this afternoon into this weekend.

* For the Bering Sea: Widespread areas of gale force winds, some
areas of sustained storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
expected through the Western and Central Aleutians including
near Adak/Atka and Shemya where High Wind Warnings are in
effect. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Unalaska for gusts
up to 55 mph late Thursday and Friday. Expect elevated wave
heights, with seas up to 25 to 35 ft possible.

* For Southwest Alaska: Southeasterly gale force winds likely, and
a Wind Advisory has been issued for Coastal Kuskokwim Delta and
the Western Capes. The Coastal Flood Watch has been upgraded to
a Coastal Flood Warning with the primary communities of concern
being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak and Kipnuk, and communities near
and along the mouth of the Kuskokwim River.

Discussion:

Calm and clear conditions continue for Southwest Alaska this
tonight as the ridge of high pressure exits overhead. Expect
interior locations that see clear skies overnight tonight to again
drop to near or below freezing, similar to last night and this
morning.

Over the Bering, a large and strong front is currently stretched
from the Central Aleutians to the northwestern Bering while the
remnants of Typhoon Dujuan get siphoned into this system. These
systems will continue to merge through this evening leading to
the consolidation and rapid strengthening of the low in the
southern Bering today. Much stronger winds are developing across
the Bering this afternoon with ample tropically sourced moisture
leading to moderate to heavy rainfall along the front pushing east
across the Bering through Thursday morning.

As the low tracks into the central Bering by this afternoon
through Thursday morning, sustained gale-force winds are likely to
encompass much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Winds continue to
further strengthen this evening and overnight tonight as the low
reaches its minimum central pressure likely in the range of 950
to 960 mb. A swath of sustained storm-force winds along the
Aleutian Chain from Shemya to Atka are expected beginning late
this evening through Thursday evening as the low tracks east
across the southern Bering. Widespread storm-force gusts and
the potential for hurricane force gusts (>=75 mph) will be likely
for these areas. High Wind Warnings will be in effect from 10 PM
this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for Shemya and Attu, and from
7 AM to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for Adak and Atka. The combination of
strong winds and long fetch could lead to high seas, perhaps on
the order of 25 to 35 ft across the Bering Sea and North Pacific
waters just south of the Aleutians, as well as the potential for
high surf for the Pribilof Islands. Additionally, a Wind Advisory
has been issued for Unalaska and Nikolski for sustained winds of
35 to 45 mph out of the West with gusts to 55 mph starting
Thursday evening, coming to an end by Friday evening.

For Southwest Alaska, there is high confidence for a gale-force
front reaching the coast tonight through Thursday morning. Strong
southeasterly winds increase with the arrival of the front with
the potential for gusts up to 60 mph along the immediate coast
through Thursday evening as the front moves inland. As such, a
Wind Advisory is in effect. Given the strong push of onshore flow,
the previous Coastal Flood Watch has been upgraded to a Coastal
Flood Warning. Models continue to struggle on pinpointing the
exact track of the low as it nears the YK- Delta in the eastern
Bering, however there is enough confidence to say that elevated
water levels across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coastline are
expected. Water levels on average of 1.5 to 2.5 feet above the
normal highest tide line are expected in Kwigillingok, with the
worst case scenario water levels at 5 feet above the normal
highest tide line. Stay tuned for forecast updates as this storm
continues to evolve.

-JH/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

An upper level stationary low over the Interior Mainland late
this weekend causes a trough to dig into the Bering Sea through
the middle of next week. This trough brings persistent
northerly/northwesterly winds to the Central and Western Aleutians
through mid-week. Additionally, the flow brings low pressure
systems through this area Monday and Wednesday resulting in rounds
of precipitation and gusty winds through the bays and passes. The
exact track of the mid-week storm through the Aleutians is
uncertain with the general consensus of a more southerly route
looking likely at this time as winds turn more northerly. In
Southwest Alaska, onshore flow and weak ridging sets up between
the lows` passing.

For Southcentral, multiple lows are projected to enter the Gulf
of Alaska bringing rain and wind to Kodiak Island and both the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Prince William Sound coasts from
late this weekend and into the middle of next week. There are
signals of a weak ridge in the Gulf of Alaska arrives late next
Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

&&


$$

973
FXAK67 PAJK 240539
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.UPDATE...Update for the 06Z TAF issuance as well as the long term
discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm potential continues into Wednesday night across the
gulf and far southern panhandle.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime
highs generally in the 50s.

- Potential for a break in the weather Thursday into Friday as
high pressure moves in temporarily ahead of the next system to
affect the panhandle.

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...Showers continue across
the area due to a low pressure system that remains over the gulf.
This area of low pressure will continue to weaken and slowly move
southward through Thursday into Friday. Although showers, and a
few thunderstorms continue tonight, the overall pattern will be
lowering rain chances and decreasing winds. Looking closer at the
thunderstorm potential, highest forecast confidence remains over
the gulf and the far southern panhandle. Periods of gusty winds
with localized heavy rain and a few lightning strikes have already
been observed throughout the day. These thunderstorms have been
observed, via satellite as far north as the Fairweather grounds
southward to Dixon Entrance. Like rain chances, thunderstorm
potential decreases tonight with little to no confidence on
thunderstorms developing tomorrow.

As winds, precipitation chances, and sky cover decrease and stay
lower into Friday, forecast confidence has increased on fog
formation occurring. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into
early Thursday. Then, there is a higher chance of fog developing
late Thursday into Friday across the area.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...An active weather
pattern will persist across SEAK through the forecast period.
Multiple fronts/lows will push through the Gulf move into the
panhandle over the weekend and into early next week. The big
player that will send the fronts into the Gulf and through SEAK
will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan and associated upper- level
low/trough that will slowly swing through southern interior into
the Gulf through the weekend into early next week. Between each
front, weaker moist onshore flow will keep mostly cloudy skies and
showers. The initial front will lift northeastward through SEAK
on Saturday, followed quickly by a secondary stronger front
pushing east later Saturday night and Sunday. A period of moderate
to heavy rain and gusty S-SEly winds are expected with each
frontal passage, especially with the Sunday system as deeper
moisture feed ahead of front will bring higher precipitation
rates. Cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough will
generate modest instability, bringing a potential for isolated
thunderstorms, mainly along the Gulf coast. By early next week,
guidance continues to indicate the active pattern continuing as
the broad upper-level troughing remains over or just west of the
Gulf, with an additional front/low lifting northeast through the
Gulf into the Panhandle Monday into Tuesday, keeping the potential
for moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds. Some guidance is
quite aggressive with this low and bringing gales into the Gulf.
While model spread and uncertainly remains in regards to the
timing, location and strength of this system, overall confidence
is high for a wet and active period. While rounds of moderate to
heavy rainfall are expected through the period, with around a
10-15% probability of precip rates reaching 6hr/24hr 2-year return
interval, each system is fairly progressive and a prolonged
duration of heavy rain is not expected. The rainy and cloudy
pattern will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs
generally in the 50s.

.AVIATION.../through 06Z Friday/...Widespread VFR conditions have
taken hold of the panhandle, with a steady improving trend
expected through the period. The exceptions to this are areas in
the southern and central panhandle still seeing small pockets of
showers blow over, which may bring periods of high-end MVFR
conditions with CIGs AoA 2000 ft, gusty winds up to 20 kts, and
potentially heavy rainfall. The majority of shower activity can be
found along the outer coast of the panhandle from Sitka
southward, but the main area of heavier showers is moving
northeastward onshore just south of Ketchikan. Numerous lightning
strikes have been observed with some cells funneling into
Revillagigedo Channel, though these are not expected to make it
much further once they reach land. The continuous waves of showers
that has been the pattern the past few days is coming to an end,
and shower potential is expected to taper off through the period.
Skies should also begin to clear out through Friday afternoon,
allowing for local sea breezes to pick up through midday and the
potential for fog development to return Saturday night. For areas
of the northern panhandle that are already seeing broken CIGs,
patchy fog may develop through the early morning hours of Friday
as well.

.MARINE...
Outer waters: Hazardous marine conditions peaked midday
Wednesday, driven by a broad band low lifting through the gulf
bringing southeast winds of 30-35kts, widespread Small Craft
conditions, and steep, heavy ocean swells of 8-14ft. A slight
chance of thunderstorms remains for the northeast coast and far
southern panhandle through Thursday evening. Seas will continue
to gradually diminish Wednesday night and through the day Thursday
dropping to 7 ft or less by Thursday night as the low turns
southward and continues to weaken. A brief break in hazardous
conditions later Thursday will come to an end on Friday as a new
frontal system lifts into the gulf.

Inner channels: Winds across the inner channels continue to be
largely 15 kt or less Wednesday afternoon. The east/west
orientation of the pressure gradient continues to support
channeling of the winds in associated channels, though not as
strong due to the low continuing to weaken and meander more
offshore. Overnight and into Thursday the pressure gradient is
expected to continue to slacken across the inner channels,
leading to an overall reduction in winds speeds. As the low
continues to slide southward, a weak northerly wind shift is
expected. Thursday, and especially Friday, could see some light
localized sea breeze effects with clearer skies expected. There is
increasing confidence that these clearer skies will result in
widespread fog development for Friday morning; less confidence for
any patchy fog Thursday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau