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078
FXAK69 PAFG 141333
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
533 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level troughing is bringing rainfall for northern Alaska and
gusty southerly winds, especially for the south-central Interior,
and moderated temperatures through at least mid-week. The West
Coast, Western Interior, and southern slopes of the Brooks Range
are expected to receive the bulk of the rainfall, leaving the
Interior with only isolated showers due to the chinook flow.
Increased southerly gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes is
expected to continue through the day and into Wednesday morning
and weaken as the trough shifts eastward.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Isolated rain showers will be possible in the Interior today, but
conditions will generally be drier than wetter. A stronger front
will bring more widespread showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
As this front passes, an isolated storm north and east of
Fairbanks is possible Wednesday afternoon.
-Winds have begun increasing through the Alaska Range and is
expected to persist through Wednesday as a stronger front moves
through.
-Gusts of up to 75 mph in Isabel Pass are likely, prompting a
High Wind Warning to be issued through Wednesday morning.
-Up to 65 mph will be possible for Windy Pass, prompting a Wind
Advisory to be issued to early Wednesday morning as well.
-Another Wind Advisory has been issued for Delta Junction to
Wednesday morning for wind gusts as high as 60 mph.
-A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern
slopes of the eastern Alaska Range for wind gusts as high as
45 mph.
-Temperatures remain seasonably cool, with highs in the 60s to
near 70, with the warmer temperatures towards the ALCan Border
and Fortymile Country.
West Coast and Western Interior...
-Widespread rain is expected to persist through the day today and
into tomorrow. Rainfall totals now through Thursday are expected
to range 0.50-1.00" with the higher terrain reaching as high as
1.50" in some locations.
-A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern
Seward Peninsula, the Norton Sound, and the YK Delta for water
levels to rise 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line during
the high tides today.
-Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the
end of the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Highest rain totals now through Thursday are expected to be on
the southern slopes of the Brooks Range, especially the central
and eastern Brooks Range, ranging 0.50-1.00" with localized
1.50" at higher elevations.
-Isolated chances of thunderstorms linger today for the Arctic
Plains and eastern Brooks Range.
-High temperatures in the widespread 60s to possibly near 70 in
the eastern Arctic Plains today diminish to the 50s and 60s
beginning Wednesday through the rest of the week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Upper-level, longwave troughing persists for the next few days,
prompting multiple precipitation and wind concerns for northern
Alaska. This slow moving trough will be associated with multiple
rounds of shortwave energy circulating around it that will cause
widespread showers over the state through mid-week. Within the
last 72 hours, rainfall totals for most areas have ranged
0.25-1.00" with some locally higher amounts. The West Coast and
Western Interior are expected to receive an additional 0.50-1.00"
with the higher terrain reaching as high as 1.50" through
Thursday. The central and eastern Interior will likely remain more
dry than wet due to the chinook flow, but could see as high as
0.30" through Thursday, except for the Alaska Range where as high
as 1.00-3.00" will be possible. Though this water levels in rivers
may rise, there are no flooding concerns at this time. Since the
Interior may remain more dry, the sun may peek through the clouds
causing diurnal heating that may lead to the potential of
thunderstorms north and east of Fairbanks on Wednesday. Finally,
the North Slope too will likely remain mostly dry except on the
southern slopes of the Brooks Range where 0.50-1.00" with locally
higher amounts in the higher terrain are possible. Isolated
thunderstorms may linger in the Arctic Plains and eastern Brooks
Range today. Due to all these showers across the state and the
general upper-level troughing, temperatures are expected to remain
moderated across the state for most of the week.
Based on the position of this trough over the West Coast and
Bering Sea, southerly flow is expected to persist and get stronger
throughout the morning for the Interior, causing gusty winds
through the Alaska Range, prompting wind hazards to be issued. A
High Wind Warning is out for Isabel Pass through Wednesday morning
for southerly wind gusts as high as 75 mph. Windy Pass and Delta
Junction are both under Wind Advisories for winds gusting as high
as 65 mph for Windy Pass and 60 mph for Delta Junction.
Additionally, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for the
southern portion of the Alaska Range for wind gusts as high as 45
mph. Winds along the West Coast may cause high water along the
southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, and YK Delta today. See
the Coastal Hazard Potential section below for more details. As
this troughing travels eastward, this southerly flow will weaken
beginning as early as Wednesday morning, though gusty winds may
linger into the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With troughing across the Bering and Chukchi Seas and southwest flow
across Western Alaska and into the Interior, increasingly cooler and
wetter conditions with widespread highs in the 50s and 60s (with
some low 70s in the warmest spots) are expected the next few days.
Western Alaska in particular Nonetheless, the Yukon Flats and parts
of the Tanana Valley will see lower chances of wetting rains save
for a stray heavy shower until late Tuesday morning into Wednesday,
when a Bering Sea low will push considerable moisture into the area.
Once this occurs, most 70 degree weather will end for the time being
in the Interior.
With southerly winds across the Alaska Range, gap winds through the
passes and at Delta Junction are expected to continue through
Wednesday morning. For these conditions, a High Wind Warning for
gusts up to 75 mph is in effect for Isabel Pass, with Wind
Advisories for wind gusts up to 60 and 65 mph at Delta Junction and
through Windy Pass, respectively.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as a system moves through. Between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of
rain are possible for more westerly and southwesterly communities,
with the heaviest expected totals along the Southern Alaska
Range. In the southern Alaska Range, 2 to 3 inch totals are
expected, which will cause some rises along rivers and streams,
but no flooding is expected at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Tuesday
To start the extended time frame, general troughing will dominate
Alaska, with southerly flow in the Interior. Moving into the
weekend, showery activity and cool temperatures will be fairly
widespread, although there is low certainty on exact timing and
amounts of precipitation. Thunderstorms will be less likely during
this time frame. By Monday, temperatures in the Eastern Interior are
favored to warm back into the upper 60s or 70s, with southerly flow
across the Alaska Range bringing gap winds through the passes and
returning potential for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms
across most of the area from the Brooks Range south.
Coastal Hazard Potential...
A Special Weather Statement remains in place for the Southern
Seward Peninsula, Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast for
minor water level rises persisting today.
Weak south to southwesterly wind will result in minor sea level
rises. Expect rises of 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line
with each high tide cycle through today. Winds will be weakening
and shift northerly today.
The highest water levels, up to 3 feet above the high tide line,
are expected in Eastern Norton Sound while the Yukon Delta and
Nome Coast are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet.
Significant impacts are not expected but those with belongings on
the beach may want to bring them further away from the water as a
precaution.
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&
$$
Lewis
DS - Extended Forecast/Fire Weather
835
FXAK68 PAFC 141325
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...
Scattered showers will prevail on Tuesday as the next in a series
of shortwave troughs lift across the region. Morning radar shows
widespread precipitation extending from Kodiak Island up into the
Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound. As has been advertised
in previous forecast discussions, gusty southeasterly winds are
expected through much of the day on Tuesday, especially for gap
wind prone locations. Winds coming out of the Turnagain Arm will
at times bend into Anchorage. Likewise, southerly winds pushing
into the Sound will also accelerate northward through the Copper
River Basin.
A wind advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the Anchorage
Hillside, where peak winds could gust as high as 45 to 65 mph.
The strongest winds will occur at elevation, though isolated gusts
will have the potential to work their way to the surface as well.
Winds will be strongest ahead of the trough axis. For western
portions of Southcentral, this means peak winds will extend from
the late morning hours into the early evening hours on Tuesday,
gradually subsiding thereafter as the trough axis overtakes the
Anchorage Bowl and lifts northeastward. Gusty winds from Cordova
into the Copper River Basin should persist later into the early
morning hours on Wednesday before also being surpassed by the
trough.
Scattered showers across Southcentral will likely be ongoing
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Rain chances will then
diminish somewhat over the second half of the day on Wednesday as
upper level forcing for ascent scoots north of the Alaska Range.
The pattern, however, will remain active with yet another upper
trough forecast to move into Southcentral on Thursday. Expect more
rain and potential winds over the latter half of the week, with
unseasonably cooler temperatures to continue.
-BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...
A longwave trough has set up over the Bering Sea and into Western
Alaska. Embedded within this longwave trough is multiple strong
shortwaves which will move across the Bering and the Mainland and
bring widespread rainfall. This pattern will linger on through the
week with periods of widespread rainfall expected.
Rainfall continues over the Southwest Mainland as one of the
strong shortwaves passes through the area. Gusty westerly winds
up to galeforce (up to 35 to 40 mph gusts) will be over Bristol
Bay and into the Dillingham and King Salmon areas. These winds
will gradually diminish through Wednesday. Speaking of Wednesday,
rainfall will become more scattered over the mainland as the area
becomes in between shortwaves. A low will move into the Bering on
Wednesday and will bring more rainfall and elevated winds (near
small craft). By Thursday, this low will push into the Alaska
Peninsula, leading to widespread rainfall returning to the
Southwest Mainland. Friday will see rainfall continue over the
mainland as the upper low sits in place. Also, another low will
move into the Bering and will bring even more rainfall and
elevated wind speeds.
High temperatures for the week remain below 60F due to the
widespread cloud cover and rainfall, with low temperatures dipping
into the low 40s for many locations by midweek. Wind speeds over
the Southwest Mainland will generally be southerly and westerly at
10 to 15 mph through the week as the shortwaves move through. This
pattern looks to persist into the weekend with continued upper
troughing.
-JH/JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
No change from previous Long Term discussion... Longwave trough
remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week.
Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate
rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast
model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping
this long range forecast trend.
Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing
periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound,
Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday.
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the
conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the
Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow
will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures.
Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure
systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to
moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by
Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and
cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.
-Johnston/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Rain continues through most of the day today. Gusty
southeast winds should prevent ceilings from dropping below MVFR
today. During heavier bursts of rain, especially late morning to
early afternoon, expect ceilings to oscillate between VFR and
MVFR, as well as drops in visibility to MVFR. Southeast winds
looks to be at their strongest, around 35 kts, this morning
through early afternoon before diminishing back to around 20 to 25
kts this evening. While the expectation is for winds to remain
predominantly out of the southeast at the surface, some northerly
flow may create periods of wind shear through the morning hours.
Southerly to southeast wind gusts increase back to around 30 kts
Wednesday morning as flow aloft shifts to up- inlet. Showers taper
off towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday morning
with VFR conditions returning predominantly. Although, ceilings at
5000 ft along with a scattered MVFR deck are not out of the
question.
-DAN
&&
$$
846
FXAK67 PAJK 141828
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1028 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.UPDATE... to the aviation discussion following the 18z TAF
issuance.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE.../Through 18z Wednesday/...Forecast largely
remains unchanged for the upcoming system moving into the NE Gulf
coast tonight, with predominantly VFR conditions across the rest
of the panhandle lasting through the end of the TAF period. Much
of the area has seen clearing of a marine layer from overnight into
this morning, with clear skies expected through the day for the
southern panhandle and some breaks in cloud cover across the
northern half of the panhandle farther from the outer coastline.
The outer NE Gulf Coast will continue to see MVFR conditions due
to 1500-2500 ft CIGs through the day, beginning to drop to more
low-end MVFR of 1000-1500 ft through the day and into tonight ahead
of the upcoming system. Precipitation chances will increase into
tonight, with this rain reaching the Yakutat area by around 06 to
08z. This will bring a drop to CIGs and VIS to IFR conditions
around Yakutat and the NE coastline tonight, with CIGs of 500-1000
ft and VIS of 4-6SM associated with this rainfall lasting into
Wednesday morning. This system will move into the Cross Sound area
up to Gustavus by the end of the TAF period, keeping these areas
at MVFR CIGs with precipitation beginning by around 18z.
A marine layer looks to still develop overnight tonight largely for
areas further southward compared to last night, with Klawock and
the western coast of PoW and southern Baranof having potential to
see a low stratus deck develop along the shore.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 604 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across most of
the panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday.
- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula
on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across
the northeast Gulf.
SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / High pressure ridge over
the eastern gulf and panhandle looks to continue through midweek.
The marine layer covers the Northeast gulf and northern panhandle
with larger breaks for the southern panhandle. In other words more
of what has been going on the last couple of days is likely what
your going to see today. Breezy in the afternoon for the Skagway
area. Temperatures continue in the 50s to lower 60s for the
northern panhandle and 60s to near 70 for the southern.
May see some morning patch fog that lifts during the day. A front
moving across the gulf will start to spread rain into the Yakutat
area later Tuesday, and probably into the northern panhandle by
the end of Wednesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be light.
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/...A ridge remains over
the gulf through the long term period with a few disturbances
moving into the NE gulf coast. The first of these lows, in the
long term period, will move northward into the NE gulf late
Thursday into Friday. This will mainly bring rain to the Yakutat
area and westward, with highest rain totals remaining west of the
panhandle. Currently, rain 24 hour rain totals still remain low
over the Yakutat area with less than 1 inch most likely. This will
also bring increased winds into the NE gulf, especially near Cape
Suckling with winds becoming southeasterly and increasing to 20
to 30 kts. Winds will once again become widespread northwesterly
across the gulf late Friday into Saturday. The rest of the
panhandle will remain on the drier side, with a slight chance of
rain showers through the week. Late in the work week, into the
start of the weekend, temperatures will likely increase across the
area. Highest temperatures will be located across the southern
portions of the panhandle, especially near Hyder. On Friday, 850
mb temperatures indicate an increase to 12 to 14 C over POW,
Ketchikan, and Annette. Over Hyder, 850 temperatures increase to
the upper teens with 20 C possible just east of the area. Hyder
has a 70 to 80% chance of reaching a high temperatures in the 80s
on friday with a 20 to 30% chance of hitting 90 degrees F.
AVIATION.../Through 12Z Wednesday/...The marine layer is returning
this morning, bringing ceilings down to 1500 ft and reducing
visibilities to 3-4 sm, mainly from central Baranof Island northward
to Yakutat and inland toward Hoonah and Gustavus. Around daybreak, a
slight chance of showers over Icy Strait could also temporarily
lower conditions. Most of today`s precipitation is expected to stay
confined to the north Gulf coast near Yakutat, with an increase
overnight likely degrading conditions to IFR by early tomorrow
morning. Elsewhere, the southern panhandle is currently experiencing
VFR conditions, which should persist through tomorrow morning.
However, PAKW may see early morning impacts to visibilities from the
marine layer as it is expected to move southward tomorrow. The
inland northern panhandle (PAGY, PAHN, PAJN) is also forecast to be
mostly VFR today, but clouds moving over the Chilkat Range may cause
brief drops to high-end MVFR ceilings in the afternoon.
MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds within North Lynn Canal
into Taiya Inlet will continue to be heightened at 20-25 kts through
the next few days, and stay sustained overnight around 10-15 kts, as
thermal troughing in British Columbia persists. Across the rest
of the inner channels, winds will remain on the lighter side,
mostly 10 kts or less from the northwest due to high pressure in
the eastern Gulf. Winds may increase to 15 kts in southern
Clarence Strait over the next few days due to the predominately
northwest wind pattern, especially over the southern panhandle.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Due to high pressure in the SE
Gulf, winds along the coast will follow a northwesterly flow pattern
with low clouds pushing in due to the marine layer, and occasional
patchy fog possible. Winds up to 20 knots are expected along the
western coast from Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance. Winds will
largely shift south to southeasterly as an incoming front approaches
from the west on Tuesday night. Expecting to see a barrier jet
develop along the NE Gulf coast, with sustained wind speeds hitting
gale force (35-40 kts) by 10 PM at the latest near Cape Suckling to
Icy Bay. Seas are expected to increase up to 10 ft as the jet
strengthens, though will start to diminish to 5-6 ft by Wednesday
morning as winds look to transition back to a west-southwesterly,
weak onshore flow pattern.
HYDROLOGY...River rises on Salmon River near Hyder has been quite
notable going up nearly 2 feet in the last 36 hours and their
hasn`t been any significant rainfall. Water temps are lowering
with what is assumed to be a release from the Summit Lake. It is unknown
how much water will be released from Summit Lake which results in
large uncertainty on crest height and timing. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for it.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...BAS
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek
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