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2022 Seasonal Forecast of Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) for Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a rapid growth of algae that produce toxic or harmful effects on people, fish, marine mammals, birds and local economies. NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science's (NCCOS) HAB forecasts aid those who respond to bloom impacts and help members of the public make informed decisions if a bloom is affecting their area. NCCOS issues forecasts for Lake Erie after sampling confirms presence of the HAB species Microcystis, during bloom season (typically July to October) when conditions are optimal for growth. The Lake Erie HAB Forecast is updated daily and provides information on current extent and trajectory of HABs as they form.

This map models bloom position from date of satellite imagery to a minimum of 96 hours from date of publication, using water currents data from the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS). Potential for bloom movement is forecast in 3-dimensions with a hydrodynamic model using a hydrodynamic model with the satellite imagery. The modeled output does not contain clouds. Black coloring indicates the absence of chlorophyll and grey color indicates areas with no data. Water temperature and winds (in magenta) are the averages for the western basin from the model.


For more info and links about harmful algal blooms including the observed bloom position and the vertical mixing forecast or to subscribe and receive forecast information by e-mail, please visit the NOAA Lake Erie HAB Forecast website.

This web page is being provided as part of a multi-agency effort to provide information about and access to existing forecasts of Harmful Algal Blooms and other environmental information. Information/products are provided by NOAA/National Ocean Service, NOAA/Office of Atmospheric Research/GLERL, and NOAA/National Weather Service. The Lake Erie Forecast is operated by NOAA/Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. Please visit the web pages of those agencies for detailed information about the operational status of these products and contacts for questions about these products.


For more information see the Product Description Document.



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