National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Snow Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast
Point Range
Official NWS Forecast Snow Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall

Maximum Potential Snow Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall

Minimum Potential Snow Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall

 

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more snow will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

 

This map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall

 

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more snow will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 
The purpose of these experimental probabilistic snowfall products is to provide customers and partners a range of snowfall possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic snowfall graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than

 

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that snowfall will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=6"
>=6"
>=8"
>=8"
>=12"
>=12"
>=18"
>=18"
Probability Graphic

Snowfall Totals by Location
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Snowfall Totals by Location

 

These tables show the snowfall forecast for individual locations. The tables provide the same information as the maps on this web page, just shown in a different way. The "Exceedance" option shows the chance that snow will exceed a certain threshold. The "Range" option shows the likelihood of snowfall being within a certain range. All of these values are valid for the same time period as depicted on the graphics.

County:
 
Switch to: Range Exceedance
Ice Accumulation Potential
 
Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast
Most Likely Ice Accumulation

What's this?

Most Likely Ice Accumulation

Represents our official ice forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The ice accumulation amounts are provided in ranges.

Other Snow/Ice Information
Storm Track Reported Snow/Ice Totals
Storm Total Ice Graphic
Last 72 hours of snow fall
What's this? What's this?
12-hr snow accumulation forecast

Low Tracks Graphic

The graphic depicts the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future.

The low position and track forecast by NCEP WPC meteorologist is in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circles around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located with the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles.

Precipitation Onset

Most likely time of winter precipitation onset (snow, sleet, freezing rain). Rain is not included here. This information is provided when we issue a Warning or Advisory for expected snow or ice accumulation; typically six to 24 hours in advance. Times are only given for places that are under a Warning or Advisory. They will be blank in areas outside Warnings or Advisories.

Reported

As snow and/or ice reports come into the NWS (you can email reports to us here. or Tweet to @NWSCLE), we will pass them on here. With the map linked here, and the supporting reports in the Public Information Statement, you can keep tabs on how much has fallen.

 

Cleveland, OH Products
       


000
WWUS41 KCLE 111729
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1229 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

...Storm System is Moving Northeast...

.The storm system that brought freezing rain to the local area is
moving northeast across Ohio and Lake Erie. This system will
continue to track northeast and out of the area this afternoon and
tonight. The threat for widespread freezing rain has ended.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-111830-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180211T2000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Marion-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Sandusky, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Upper Sandusky,
Bucyrus, and Marion
1229 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The precipitation in the form of freezing rain moved east of the
advisory area and therefore, widespread freezing rain is not
expected any longer. As the colder air begins to push into the
local area, there is the possibility for a brief period of
freezing rain but ice accumulations should be no more than a
trace at most.

$$

Lombardy

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle


000
NOUS41 KCLE 111605
PNSCLE
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-120405-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1105 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW DEPTH OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CLEVELAND

***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION SNOW TIME/DATE COMMENTS
ON GROUND OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
ANDOVER 2.0 552 AM 2/11 SNOW SPOTTER

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 1.0 651 AM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LUCAS COUNTY...
TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPO 7.0 700 AM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PORTAGE COUNTY...
HIRAM 4.0 933 AM 2/11 SNOW SPOTTER
BERLIN LAKE DAM 4.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...SUMMIT COUNTY...
MONROE FALLS 4.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER
AKRON CANTON AIRPORT 3.0 651 AM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER

...TRUMBULL COUNTY...
YOUNGSTOWN WARREN AI 3.0 651 AM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOSQUITO CREEK LAKE 3.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...WOOD COUNTY...
2 W BOWLING GREEN 3.0 1200 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
TITUSVILLE 4.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ERIE COUNTY...
ERIE AIRPORT 5.0 700 AM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

BM

000
FLUS41 KCLE 171016
HWOCLE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
516 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-181030-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
516 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rain is possible at times Monday through Wednesday with the
potential for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-181030-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
516 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


120
FXUS61 KCLE 180929
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
429 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley today. A warm
front will lift north across the area on Monday and unseasonably
warm weather will prevail through Tuesday. A cold front will
drop across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A little low level convergence lingered across northeast Ohio early
this morning as the last of the short wave pulls out. Will allow a
few more flurries there and the snowbelt for the next few hours.
Clearing will make good progress from the west but high clouds will
increase this afternoon. Winds will come around from the south today
and with some sunshine, temperatures will recover to normal or
slightly above normal, generally 40 to 45.

Heights are forecast to rise steadily early this week with strong
warm advection. As the low level jet increases, and the southern
branch of the jet lifts north across the Ohio Valley, frontogenesis
will increase. It will take much of Monday to get the warm front
north of the area. Showers will develop toward daybreak and coverage
and intensity should increase Monday morning. The model soundings
show some elevated cape, but it is limited and higher up in the
sounding, and will not mention thunder at this time. Rainfall
amounts appear to be light to moderate for Monday. The area of
precip will shift north, hopefully not focused in any one spot for
too long.

Temperatures will drift upward later tonight and warm through
the 50s on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Active pattern expected during the period, with near record temps
possible on Tuesday. Area will be fully entrenched in the warm
sector Monday night as a warm front continues to push north of the
area, and a slow moving cold front settles just west of the forecast
area. Models are starting to align with their solutions, which has
trended towards an overall drier pattern over the local area MOnday
night through Tuesday night with a slower moving cold front. Much of
the area will likely be dry Tuesday into Tuesday night, however
with keep some slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern
2/3rds of the forecast area. The front is expected to work east
across the area on Wednesday departing the area Wednesday night.
Will continue with cat pops across the entire area Wednesday. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to be along the cold front Monday
night through Tuesday night, and as of now should fall just west of
the forecast area. Lesser rainfall amounts are expected Wednesday as
the front accelerates through the local area. As far as
temperatures go, kept Tuesday`s highs fairly similar to previous
forecast, which may be conservative compared to the potential if
conditions are dry and a we get some decent sunshine. Near record
highs expected in the upper 60s to low 70s, but the forecast remains
a few degrees cooler than some of the MOS. There is some potential
for mid 70s, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary pushing south of the forecast area will become
stationary late Thursday as high pressure builds east across the
Great Lakes. This is expected to keep conditions fairly dry Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night across the area, with some lingering
rain showers possible early Thursday across southeast portions of
the area. A wet period is expected Friday through Saturday as low
pressure develops and tracks northeast. Temperatures will likely be
above normal during this period, with highs back into the 50s Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The snow and IFR conditions will shift east of the area early
this morning as the weak front moves east. Several hours of
MVFR ceilings will follow, then clearing will move east across
the area this morning and a return to VFR conditions. High
clouds will arrive this afternoon/evening. Winds will back to
the south as the day goes on.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible at times Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow today will become more southerly tonight, generally
increasing to around 15 kts overnight. Winds will increase to 15-20
kts out of the southwest on Monday as a warm front lifts north
across the lake and low pressure approaches from the west. This will
continue until Wednesday before a cold front pushes east across the
lake and winds become northwesterly 10 kts or less. Winds will
remain light through the remainder of the week as high pressure
moves across the lake, mainly out of the north Wednesday night
slowly veering easterly by Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Greenawalt



000
WWUS81 KCLE 161008
SPSCLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
508 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

PAZ001>003-161200-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
508 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...

Patchy dense fog will affect portions of Erie and Crawford
counties in northwest Pennsylvania early this morning. Visibility
reductions to a quarter mile are possible. Visibility is expected
to improve around or shortly after sunrise. Use caution during the
early morning commute, especially along Interstates 90 and 79.

$$

Greenawalt

 

Useful Winter Weather Information
WINTER SAFETY HOW TO MEASURE SNOW sNOW cLIMATOLOGY (30-yr avg) Past Seasons (1998-)
Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation