Cleveland, OH

Weather Forecast Office

Ecosystem Forecast Support Dashboard

Wind and Waves

Water Temp/Currents

Forecasted Sky Cover

Rainfall

Streamflows

Help

West Erie Forecast Winds / Waves (NWS)

~ 10nm NE Toledo

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Day 1-2

Day 3-4

Day 5-6

~ 3nm NW of North Bass Island

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Day 1-2

Day 3-4

Day 5-6

West Erie Prob Wind Speeds / Gusts

~ 10nm NE Toledo

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pWind Speed

pGust Speed

~ 3nm NW of North Bass Island

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pWind Speed

pGust Speed

NAEFS Bias Corrected Downscaled Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast Hour 24 to 384

f24

f36

f48

f60

f72

f84

f96

f108

f120

f132

f144

f156

f168

f180

f192

f204

f216

f228

f240

f252

f264

f276

f288

f300

f312

f324

f336

f348

f360

f372

f384

Forecast Waves

Animation (GLERL)

NWS Forecast Waves (open in new window - click here)

Water Temperatures

Current Marblehead, OH water temperature

MI Sea Grant - Satellite Remotely Sensed Surface Water Temperature

Surface Water Temperature remotely sensed, Sea Grant, near Sandusky OH

GLERL - Nowcast (modeled) Surface Water Temperature

GLERL Nowcast Surface Water Temperature

GLERL Water Temperature Forecast (+72 hrs)

Animation (GLERL) 0-120 hours

GLERL surface water temperature forecast for +72 hours

GLERL Nowcast Surface Currents

GLERL Surface Currents Forecast (+24hrs)

Animation (GLERL) 0-120 hours

24 hr forecast of surface currents from GLERL

GLERL- Nowcast Bottom Water Temperature

GLERL Nowcast Bottom Water Temperature

Water Temperature Transect (GLERL)

Lake Erie Temperature Transet (GLERL)

NWS Forecast Sky Coverage

~ 10nm NE Toledo

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Day 1-2

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Day 3-4

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Day 5-6

Rainfall Data

Observed Rainfall Data

Rainfall Forecasts

Official 48 Rainfall Forecast from the OHRFC (Used in River Forecasts)

2 Day Rainfall Forecast OHRFC

WPC 7 Day Forecasted Rainfall

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

GEFS Guidance

7 Day Accumulated Maumee Basin Average Precipitation for Waterville Ohio

NAEFS Guidance

7 Day Accumulated Maumee Basin Average Precipitation for Waterville Ohio

NAEFS 16-day Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecast

NAEFS 16 Day Ensemble Mean Total Rainfall

Climate Prediction Center Rainfall Outlooks

(NCEP GEFS & CMC GEPS)

NAEFS Point Time Series around western Lake Erie

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** note units **

Detroit

Cleveland

Fort Wayne

NAEFS Prob of Excedence

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Prob Daily Precip > 0.4" (10 mm)

over the next 15 days

Prob Total Precip > 2" (50 mm)

over the next 15 days

River Data

Official River Forecasts for the Maumee River at Waterville (NWS AHPS)

River Forecast and Observations for Maumee River in Waterville

7 Day NAEFS Ensemble Model Potential River Levels

7 Day Potential River Rise

OHRFC 30 and 60 Day Streamflow Outlooks

Wind and Waves Tab

Hourly Graphic

The hourly wind and wave graphics depict the wind direction, speed, wind gust speed, wave heights, wave period, and current direction out for 2 day increments.

Wind Probabilities

The hourly wind probability graphics depict the percent chance of a certain wind speed range being observed during that hour.

NWS Forecast Waves

The NWS issues graphics on wave height for the American waters of Lake Erie. These graphics are visible using the National Digital Forecast Database Display. The wave heights are in feet.

WDir Guidance Tab

Wind Rose - Speed Distribution

The wind rose chart shows the frequency and speed of wind blowing from each direction from 24 to 384 hours from the initial model run time.

Reading the wind rose. Each spoke is divided by color into wind speed ranges. The radial length of each spoke around the circle is the percentage of time that the wind blows from that direction, with the exception of the mode which will always extend to the outer ring. As you move outward on the radial scale, the frequency associated with wind coming from that direction increases.

Forecasted Sky Cover

Hourly Sky Grid Help NDFD Hourly Sky Grid Help

Water Temp/Currents Tab

MI Sea Grant - Remotely Sensed Surface Water Temperature

The Great Lakes surface water temperature estimates presented in this website are automatically generated from satellite-derived sensors. Obvious errors or anomalies may be present in the resulting images as a result of satellite sensor malfunctions, adverse atmospheric conditions, or processing errors. Cloud covered areas of the lake surface cannot be read accurately by NOAA satellites so the computer program colors them black. Areas near the black masked cloud cover may not be as precisely reported as those some distance from the clouds. CoastWatch images are generally representative of surface temperature conditions, they are not as accurate as your road atlas. Some areas are masked with grey color because the computer program has indicated the temperatures presented are probably cloud temperatures. The air temperature at the tops of clouds can sometimes be very nearly the same as the surface water temperature of the lakes below. The grey-scale masking indicates that the accuracy of temperature reporting is lower at this time. Watching CoastWatch temperature patterns over the days, weeks and seasons provides useful information on lake surface temperatures.

GLERL - Nowcast (modeled) Surface Water Temperature

The NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) is a set of models that simulate and predict the 2-D and 3-D structure of currents, temperatures, winds, waves, ice, and more in the Great Lakes. Their models use current lake conditions and predicted weather patterns to forecast the lake conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through these predictions in hourly increments, or view animations over this time period. Nowcasts and forecasts are generated throughout the day in near-realtime. The GLCFS uses a modified Princeton Ocean Model, developed by GLERL and the Ohio State University, and is supported by the National Weather Service.

Rainfall Tab

The rainfall tab consists of observed, forecasted, and outlooked rainfall for the region. The sources are a combination of Ohio River Forecast Center, Climate Prediction Center, and the NAEFS/GEFS ensemble forecast models.

Here is an example of the GEFS Accumulated precipitation graphic from the MMEFS. The ensembles help define the amount of uncertainty in the rainfall forecasts. The GEFS has 21 members from the GFS out for 168 hours. The NAEFS has 42 members, 21 from the GFS and 21 from the GEM models out to 168 hours. The black line with triangles denotes the median model accumulations.

7 Day GEFS Accumulated Rainfall

NAEFS Ensembles

The outlook plots are model ensembles for points around western Lake Erie. The NAEFS is a Canadian and American ensemble plot. An EPSgram image contains from one to four graphs, each one representing the forecast of a single meteorological variable for 15 days. The ensemble forecasts generated every day at 0 UTC and 12 UTC are used. In each graph of an EPSgram the operational model and the control model of the Canadian system, the American control model and the 40 models of both ensemble system combined are represented.

How to read the EPSgram. The yellow rectangle symbol with two vertical lines added, represent the dispersion of the meteorological variable for the members of the ensemble at a given time. The upper vertical black line contains the values of the 25% of the members for which the variable is the highest. The upper limit of that line is the value of the highest member. The yellow rectangle contains 50% of the members for which the value is intermediary (lower than the upper 25% and higher than the lower 25%). This rectangle is separated by a median. The portion of the rectangle higher than the median contains 25% of the members. The portion under the median contains another 25% of the members. The lower vertical black line contains the values of the 25% of the members for which the variable is the lowest. The lower limit of that line is the value of the lowest member.

Streamflow Tab

The streamflow tab focuses on the Maumee River basin, specifically at the most downstream location Waterville. Sources of river observations and streamflow predictions are from the USGS and OHRFC, notably the AHPS website.

The 3 Month Volume Probability Of Exceedance for the Maumee River at Waterville highlights the probability of the river exceeding specific flows at during a week period. Weekly chance of flow exceedance at Waterville Ohio

Weekly chance of flow exceedance at Waterville Ohio

Prototype: Under Development: Not to be relied on for Operational Decision Making.