National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Go to Southern MARFC Area Go to WRO Archive



January 16, 2018 January precipitation has been about average to nearly two inches above for most areas with the most, so far, in south-central New York into northern Pennsylvania. In the southern half of New Jersey, precipitation has been as much as 1/2 inch below. January temperatures have been cold running 4 to 6 1/2 degrees below normal. Over the past 90 days, precipitation in south-central New York into central Pennsylvania has been about normal plus or minus 1 or 2 inches. The rest of New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey are running 2 to almost 4 1/2 inches below.

Snow cover of about 5 to 10 inches covers the ground in much of south-central New York into north-central Pennsylvania. Elsewhere mostly 2 inches or less (and in many cases none) is on the ground. But, a snowfall early in the outlook period is expected to increase these numbers. The water equivalent of this snow (or the water in the snowpack that will be released when the snow melts) is 1/2 to 1 inch in the areas with the deepest snow. Elsewhere, snow water equivalent, if any, is less than 1/2 inch and is not hydrologically significant. https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow

Current (January 16) data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are generally near or above normal. Groundwater levels are averaging around normal.

The US Drought Monitor for January 11 shows that much of northeast and east-central Pennsylvania is in Moderate Drought. "Moderate Drought" means that some damage to crops and pastures can be expected; streams, reservoirs, or wells will be running low; some water shortages are developing or are imminent; and voluntary water-use restrictions are requested.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for near or above average precipitation. Temperatures are expected to begin the period below average but quickly warm to above or even much above average. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for January calls for near average precipitation and below average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for January 2018 through March 2018 calls for near or above average precipitation and near or above average temperatures.

The outlook for water resources and supplies is fair for southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Recent significant precipitation has helped to reverse the effects of long term dry weather, but continued near or above average precipitation is needed before improvement in the outlook can occur.

End.

Snow Pack Information

Precipitation Information

Extended Outlooks

Winter/Spring Flood Outlook

The first outlook is scheduled to be released on January 4, 2018.

Current Hydrologic Conditions

U.S. Geological Survey Real Time Data

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Cooperating Agencies

Other

Drought Information