National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Outlook #7 released on March 28, 2018.


SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
STATE COLLEGE, PA
12:13 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2018

OUTLOOK NUMBER 18-07 - MARCH 28, 2018

This spring river flood potential outlook is valid for the two-week period March 29 - April 12, 2018.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the middle Atlantic river forecast center's (MARFC) area of responsibility (mid-Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.  Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - VARIABLE

The river flood potential ranges from somewhat above average across about the northern third of the MARFC service area, to average across the middle third, to somewhat below average across the southern third. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE

During the last 30 days (February 25-march 26) precipitation within the MARFC service area ranged from average to much above average across most of NY, eastern PA, NJ and DE.  Across the remainder of the region precipitation was below average to much below average, including central PA, most of MD, WV, VA and the southern Delmarva Peninsula.  Precipitation over the last 30 days ranged from 3-7 inches across the northeast (wettest in NJ) to 1.0-3.5 inches across the dry south (driest in northern VA). Please visit https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

Similar to two weeks ago, portions of the Delaware and Susquehanna River basins still have significant snow on the ground.  Within the MARFC service area, this includes portions of NY and northeastern PA and perhaps the highest elevations of northwestern NJ.  In this region snow depths generally range from 1-12 inches, with snow water equivalent values of generally 0.5-3.0 inches.  Locally greater snow depths and water equivalent values exist in this area, especially across the highest elevations and in wooded/shaded areas.  Meanwhile valley locations have much less snow.  In this region snow conditions are above average for late march.  Elsewhere, generally light and patchy snow remains across portions of PA, MD, WV and VA, again mainly in higher, sheltered locations.  Most of this snow is hydrologically insignificant.  Current snow information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE

The river ice season is over.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicate normal to above-normal streamflow conditions in NJ and in/near the Appalachians.  Across most of the remainder of the region, streamflow conditions range from near normal to much below normal.  Please visit https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL

The long-term palmer drought severity index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The march 24, 2018 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is normal/above normal for this time of year, with the wettest soils located across the north.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. monitoring) indicates soil moisture deficits still remain across southern areas.  These charts also indicate that soils across the western halves of PA and NY have dried some over the last month.

GROUNDWATER - VARIABLE

USGS groundwater monitoring wells are currently indicating normal/above-normal groundwater levels across about the northern half of the region, and normal/below-normal levels elsewhere.  Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov .

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are about average for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS

A fairly typical early spring weather pattern is expected during the next two weeks.  Fluctuating temperatures and periods of mostly light-moderate precipitation are expected.  While currently there are no strong indications of widespread heavy rainfall during the next week, enough rain may fall and enough snow may melt in NY and northern PA that some river flooding could still develop there.  Meanwhile, longer range weather outlooks for the MARFC region still suggest a good chance of temperatures averaging below normal and precipitation averaging above normal during much of this two-week outlook period.  View long-range outlooks at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day .

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS – A LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING

The most recent runs (march 28, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some chance of river flooding developing within the MARFC region during the first week of this outlook period.  The threat is highest across upper portions of the Susquehanna and Delaware River basins in NY and northern PA, and is associated with predicted rain and snowmelt in those regions during the next three days.  Longer-range ensemble forecasts also show an above-average chance of river flooding developing in this same area during the next two weeks.  Please visit https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is somewhat above average across about the northern third of the region, and somewhat below average across the southern third.  The threat for river flooding is highest in NY and northern PA, within the upper Susquehanna and upper Delaware River basins.  Here, pockets of significant snow still remain on the ground, and snowmelt combined with predicted rainfall could result in some river flooding developing in this region during the next three days, and/or later on in this outlook period as well.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (March 20, 2018) U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), southern portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.  Visit https://www.drought.gov,
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov AND https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.  In general no water supply concerns currently exist for about the northern half of the MARFC region.  Further south, persistent dry conditions since last fall are cause for water supply concerns this spring and summer.  Above-normal precipitation is needed to alleviate those concerns across the south.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc OR find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/nwsmarfc/?REF=aymt_homepage_panel and on Twitter @NWSMARFC.

The next winter/spring flood outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, if needed, on April 11 or 12, 2018.

SK
 

Outlook #6 released on March 14, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
3:20 PM EST WED MAR 14 2018

Outlook Number 18-06 - March 14, 2018

This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period March 14-28, 2018.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center's (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid-Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.  Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL – VARIABLE

The river flood potential ranges from somewhat above average across the northern half of NJ, to about average across the remaining northern two-thirds of the MARFC region, to somewhat below average across the southern third.  Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE

RECENT PRECIPITATION – VARIABLE

The precipitation pattern has returned to that seen earlier this winter, generally wet across the northern half and generally dry across the south.  During the last 30 days (February 12 - March 13) precipitation was above average to much above average across most of NY, PA, NJ, extreme western MD and the northern Delmarva peninsula.  Conversely, precipitation was below average to much below average across most of MD, WV, VA and the southern Delmarva peninsula.  Precipitation over the last 30 days ranged from 3.0-7.5 inches across the wet north, to only 1-3 inches across the dry south.  To view precipitation departure data please visit https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures .

SNOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE  

The Delaware River basin and upper portions of the Susquehanna River basin currently have the most snow on the ground within the MARFC region.  In the MARFC service area, this includes portions of NY, northeastern PA and northern NJ.  In this region snow depths generally range from 5-20 inches, with snow water equivalent values of generally 1-3 inches.  Locally greater snow depths and water equivalent values exist in this area.  In this region snow conditions are above average for mid march.  Further south much lighter snow conditions exist across portions of PA, the Appalachian mountains, and portions of central VA.  In these areas snow depths are 1-8 inches with snow water equivalent values of less than an inch, with isolated higher values.  Snow conditions in these areas are generally close to average for late winter, although the snow in central VA is a bit unusual for mid-March.  In those areas not mentioned above, little or no snow exists which is typical for the date.  Given the chilly weather pattern expected across the north during the next week or so, additional snow may fall there. Snow information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov .

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE/BELOW AVERAGE

Little, if any, river ice currently exists within the MARFC region, which is normal to somewhat below normal for most areas for mid march.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

The latest data from the united states geological survey (USGS) indicate normal to above-normal stream flow conditions across about the northeastern half of the MARFC region, with below-normal to much-below normal conditions across about the southwestern half.  Please visit https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current stream flow data.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL

The long-term Palmer drought severity index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The march 10, 2018 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is normal/above normal for this time of year, with the wettest soils located across the north.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates soil moisture deficits still remain and have recently expanded again across southern areas. 

GROUNDWATER - VARIABLE

USGS groundwater monitoring wells are currently indicating normal/above-normal groundwater levels across about the northern half of the region, and normal/below-normal levels elsewhere.  Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov .

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are about average for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS 

A storm system may impact portions of the MARFC region next Tuesday-Wednesday, March 20-21.  The system could bring rain to the south and mixed precipitation or even all snow across portions of the north.  The system should be monitored as it could cause snow melt and significant rainfall across some portions of the region where significant snow still exists.  This in turn could result in the development of some river flooding (most likely in NJ).  Beyond this storm, longer-range weather outlooks suggest the second week of this two-week period may have cooler and wetter than normal weather conditions.  Long-range outlooks can be viewed at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day .

 

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - A LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING

The most recent runs (March 14, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some chance of river flooding developing within the MARFC region during the next two weeks.  The threat is highest across New Jersey but also extends into portions of the Delaware and Susquehanna River basins to the west and north of NJ.  Please visit https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is about average across about the northern two-thirds of the region, and somewhat below average across the southern third.  However, across about the northern half of NJ, the river flood potential is somewhat above average due to current wet conditions, a somewhat unusual snow cover for mid-March, and a storm that could cause snow melt and significant rainfall during the period March 20-21.  While currently a low probability, this same storm could also cause snow melt and rainfall further west and north into portions of the Delaware and Susquehanna River basins.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (March 6, 2018) U.S. Drought monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.  Driest regions are across the south.  Visit https://www.drought.gov, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/nwsmarfc/?REF=aymt_homepage_panel and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, on March 28 or 29, 2018.

Sk

 

Outlook #5 released on February 28, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
3:15 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018

Outlook Number 18-05 - February 28, 2018

This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook Is Valid For the Two-Week Period March 1-15, 2018.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center's (MARFC) area of responsibility (mid-Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.  Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

 

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE/BELOW AVERAGE. 

The river flood potential ranges from near average across about the northern two-thirds of the MARFC region, to below average across the southern third.  Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

 

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

 

RECENT PRECIPITATION - ABOVE/MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE. 

Over the last 30 days (January 29-February 27} precipitation was above average to much above average in all areas except across the lower Chesapeake Bay region where it was below average.  Precipitation ranged from around 2.5 inches across south-central NY to 6-8 inches in a band from central VA northeastward through most of NJ.  Please go to https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures to view precipitation departure data for the MARFC region.

 

SNOW CONDITIONS - MUCH BELOW AVERAGE/AVERAGE. 

Currently there is no significant snow cover within the MARFC region.  Some patchy snow is found at some higher elevations and sheltered areas in NY, but this snow is hydrologically insignificant.  Historically this time of year is considered to be about the peak of the snow season within the MARFC region, on average.  Usually 1-4 inches of snow water equivalent exists this time of year across about the northwestern half of the MARFC service area.  As such, current snow conditions are below/much below average northwest of a line from about Roanoke, VA to near Harrisburg, PA to about Poughkeepsie, NY.  Southeast of that line snow conditions are about average, meaning little or no snow exists which is fairly typical for this region.  However, significant snow is anticipated Friday across about the northern quarter of the MARFC region, and additional snow may fall during this outlook period across northern regions.  Snow information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

 

RIVER ICE - MUCH BELOW AVERAGE/AVERAGE. 

Virtually no river ice currently exists within the MARFC region, which is much below/below normal for most areas.  The exception to this generalization is across about the southeastern quarter of the region, where a lack of river ice is pretty typical during most winters.  It is now too late in winter for any significant river ice to reform.

 

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE. 

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicate normal to above-normal streamflow conditions across about the northwestern two-thirds of the MARFC region, with normal to below-normal conditions across the southeastern third.  Please visit https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL. 

The long-term palmer drought severity index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The February 24, 2018 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is normal/above normal for this time of year, with the wettest soils located across the north.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates soil moisture deficits remain across mainly southeastern areas.  In general soil moisture conditions have improved across southern and eastern regions during the last month.

 

GROUNDWATER - VARIABLE. 

USGS groundwater monitoring wells are currently indicating normal/above-normal groundwater levels across about the northern half of the region, and normal/below-normal levels elsewhere.  Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

 

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR AVERAGE. 

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are about average for this time of year.

 

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS -

A significant storm system will impact the MARFC region Thursday into Saturday.  The storm could produce 1-2+ inches of precipitation across about the northern half of the region, lesser amounts to the south.  Precipitation will start as rain but eventually change to snow across northern areas. Significant snow accumulations are likely across portions of PA, NY and NJ by Saturday morning.  Some limited river flooding could develop across the north (most likely in NJ) in response to this storm.  Beyond this storm, another storm may impact the MARFC region around March 7-8.  Longer-range weather outlooks suggest the second week of this two-week period will have weather conditions pretty typical for late winter.  Long-range outlooks can be viewed at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day.

 

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - A LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING. 

The most recent runs (February 28, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some chance of river flooding developing within the MARFC region during the next week, mainly across northern portions of the service area.  Please visit https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

 

SUMMARY -

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is near average across about the northern two-thirds of the region, and below average across the southern third. In the near term, some limited river flooding could develop this weekend across the north in association with a wet storm system expected to pass through that region.  The threat is highest in NJ.

 

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK -

 According to the latest (February 22, 2018) U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.  Driest regions are across the south.  The dry areas have been diminishing in both size and intensity during the last few weeks due to the above-average precipitation recently.  Visit https://www.drought.gov, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC/?REF=AYMT_HOMEPAGE_PANEL and on twitter @nwsmarfc.

 

The next winter/spring flood outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, on March 14 or 15, 2018.

SK

Outlook #4 released on February 14, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1:45 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018

Outlook number 18-04 - February 14, 2018

This winter/spring river flood potential outlook is valid for the two-week period February 15-March 1, 2018.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center's (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid-Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.  Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL

The river flood potential for MARFC rivers during the next two weeks is somewhat above average.  Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE

 

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE

Precipitation has increased considerably across much of the MARFC service area recently.  Thanks to the recent storm, southern and eastern areas are now, at least for the time being, rather wet.  Over the last 30 days (January 15-February 13) precipitation was below normal/normal across southern NY, portions of central PA, in western MD and northeastern WV. Elsewhere, precipitation has been above normal/much above normal. The recent wet weather will help reduce the dryness that has existed across much of the southeastern half of the MARFC region for several months.  Total precipitation during the last 30 days ranged from around 1.5 inches in south-central NY to 4-7 inches across much of VA, the Delmarva region and NJ.  Precipitation departure data can be viewed at https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

 

SNOW CONDITIONS - BELOW AVERAGE/AVERAGE

Snow presently covers the ground across about the northwestern third of the MARFC region.  The most significant snow is found across upper portions of both the Susquehanna and Delaware basins in NY and northern PA.  Here snow depths range from 3-10 inches while snow water equivalent values are generally 1.0-2.0 inches.  Isolated locations have somewhat higher values.  Outside of this region snow depths decrease heading southward to 1-4 inches while water equivalent values decrease to less than an inch.  Snow conditions are generally below average for this time of winter northwest of a line from about Roanoke, VA to near Frederick, MD to about Poughkeepsie, NY.  Southeast of that line snow conditions are about average, meaning little or no snow exists which is fairly typical for this region.  Snow information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

 

RIVER ICE - GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE

River ice conditions are presently below normal for this time of winter.  While river ice is being observed across about the northern third of the MARFC region, the ice is neither thick nor extensive.  With a warmer-than-normal weather pattern possible for much of the next two weeks, little if any new river ice is expected to form during the next two weeks.  It also seems unlikely that temperatures will get cold enough for any substantial river ice to reform for the rest of this winter.

 

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE/ABOVE AVERAGE

Some stream gages, mainly in NY, continue to be affected by ice.  The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicate near-normal to above-normal streamflow conditions throughout the MARFC region. Please visit https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL

The long-term palmer drought severity index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The February 10, 2018 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is about normal for this time of year.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates soil moisture deficits remain across southern and eastern regions.  These areas did receive 2-4 inches of rain from the most recent rain event which will certainly help to decrease the dryness. 

 

GROUNDWATER - NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL

USGS groundwater monitoring wells are currently indicating near-normal groundwater levels across about the northwestern two-thirds of the region, and below-normal levels elsewhere.  Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

 

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE/BELOW AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are average/below average for this time of year.  For example reservoir storage in the upper Delaware River basin in NY is slightly below the long-term median but still well within the normal range.

 

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS

An active weather pattern seems likely to continue for the next two weeks.  Numerous weather systems seem likely to pass near/through the region, and each has the appearance of being able to produce at least moderate precipitation across portions of the region.  Some heavy rainfall seems unavoidable during this next two-week period.  In addition, a very mild period seems likely for at least the first half of next week, which will undoubtedly cause snowmelt where snow still exists.  The combination of rather frequent periods of moderate-heavy rain, and snowmelt, could easily produce some river flooding almost anywhere within the MARFC region during the next two weeks.  The fact that stream flows across most of the region are now elevated and soils more moist supports the idea of an increased flood potential during this period.  Finally, longer-range weather outlooks also suggest this next two-week period will likely be milder and wetter than normal (visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day).

 

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - A LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING

The most recent runs (February 14, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some chance of river flooding developing within the MARFC region during the next week.  Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

 

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is above average.  Higher stream flows, wetter soils, and a potentially active weather pattern capable of producing periods of heavy rain (and snowmelt) are all factors leading to the above-average potential.

 

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (February 6, 2018) U.S. Drought monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), large portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to even severe drought.  Driest regions are across the south and east.  However, this chart does not take into account the recent heavy rain event that impacted those same regions.  A new chart will be released this week, and some improvement in drought conditions within the MARFC region is anticipated.  Visit https://www.drought.gov, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

 

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebooks at https://www.facebook.com/nwsmarfc/?REF=AYMT_HOMEPAGE_PANEL and on twitter @nwsmarfc.

 

The next Winter/Spring flood outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks on March 1, 2018.

 

Outlook #3 released on February 1, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
10:23 AM EST THU FEB 01 2018

OUTLOOK NUMBER 18-03 - FEBRUARY 1, 2018

THIS WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE
TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 1-15, 2018.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center's (MARFC) area of responsibility (mid-Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding.  Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.  Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL

The river flood potential for MARFC rivers during the next two weeks is near average across the north and below average across the south.  Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE

During the last 30 days (January 1-30, 2018) precipitation (liquid equivalent) within the MARFC service area was rather variable.  Normal or above-normal precipitation was observed across much of NY, PA, northwestern NJ, southeastern VA, and southern portions of the Delmarva Peninsula.  Conversely, below normal to much-below normal precipitation was recorded across the Appalachians, portions of VA and md, extreme southeast pa and southern NJ.  Total precipitation ranged from around 1.5 inches in northern VA to around 5 inches in southeast VA and eastern PA.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/marfc/precipitation_departures .

SNOW CONDITIONS - MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE

Snow presently covers the ground across about the northwestern third of the MARFC region.  Here snow depths are mostly 4 inches or less and snow water equivalents are generally less than a half inch, which is hydrologically insignificant.  Isolated locations have somewhat higher values.  Elsewhere there is little or no snow.  Snow conditions are below average/much below average northwest of a line from about Roanoke VA to near Frederick MD to about Poughkeepsie NY. Southeast of that line snow conditions are about average, meaning little or no snow exists which is fairly typical for this region. Snow information can be found by visiting https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE

The rather thick and extensive river ice that existed in early January is greatly diminished now. In fact river ice conditions everywhere within the MARFC region are now generally below normal for the date.  It is not too late for additional river ice formation to occur this winter.  However it would take a sustained period of much-below normal temperatures to produce river ice thick and widespread enough to cause additional ice jam flooding this season.  Longer-range weather outlooks do imply an extended cold period could occur this month across the MARFC region, though it remains to be seen if it actually happens.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

Some stream gages in the Susquehanna and Delaware River basins continue to be affected by ice.  The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicate generally near-normal streamflow conditions throughout most of the Susquehanna River basin and in the upper Delaware River basin.  Most other basins within the MARFC region are observing below-average or much below-average streamflow conditions. Please visit https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

The long-term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The January 27, 2017 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is fairly close to normal for this time of year.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/soilmst_monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates considerable soil moisture deficits remain across large portions of the MARFC region, especially eastern and southern regions.

GROUNDWATER - VARIABLE

USGS groundwater monitoring wells are currently indicating generally near-normal groundwater levels across about the northwestern half of the region, and below-normal levels elsewhere. Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are average/below average for this time of year.  For example reservoir storage in the upper Delaware River basin in NY is below the long-term median but still within the normal range.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS

A more active weather pattern seems likely over the course of the next two weeks as the storm track sets up near or over the MARFC region.  At least three storm systems are possible, the first mainly on February 4, the second around February 6-7, and a third around February 10-11.  Each system seems capable of producing at least moderate precipitation across portions of the MARFC region, with rain likely across the south and east and mixed precipitation possible elsewhere.  The February 6-7 system seems to have the best chance at this time of producing some areas of heavy rain and will need to be monitored.  Brief spells of cold temperatures will follow each system.  Longer-range weather outlooks suggest temperatures will end up cooler than normal for this two-week period, with normal or above-normal precipitation.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - A MINIMAL THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING

The most recent runs (February 1, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show only a minimal chance of river flooding developing within the MARFC region during the next week.  This minimal threat is centered across portions of pa and is associated with a storm system February 6-7, 2018.  Please visit https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

AHPS RIVER FORECASTS - NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL

The advanced hydrologic prediction service (AHPS) generates long-term (14 days or greater) probabilistic river forecasts based on current basin conditions (river levels, soil moisture, extent and condition of any snowpack) along with 50 years of historic temperature and precipitation data.  However, it is important to note that AHPS river forecasts do not take into account actual future weather conditions whereas ensemble river forecasts (see previous section) do.  For this outlook period (through February 15, 2018) current AHPS river forecasts indicate near-normal chances of river flooding developing across about the northern half of the MARFC region, with below-normal chances elsewhere.

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is near average across the north and below average across the south.  Although snow and river ice conditions are below average across the north, a fairly active weather pattern during this outlook period will allow several storm systems to move through the region which could produce some areas of heavy rain.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (January 23, 2018) U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), large portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to even severe drought.  Driest regions are across the south and east.  Above-average precipitation this winter would be beneficial across much of the MARFC region to prevent more serious water supply problems from developing this spring and summer. Visit https://www.drought.gov, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC/?REF=AYMT_HOMEPAGE_PANEL and on twitter @NWSMARFC.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks on February 15, 2018.

SK
 

 

Outlook #2 released on January 18, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
8:50 AM EST THU JAN 18 2018

OUTLOOK NUMBER 18-02 - JANUARY 18, 2018

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (mid- Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding.  Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others.  This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding, nor the location or extent of localized flooding due to ice jams.

Remember, in the mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL

The river flood potential for MARFC rivers during the next two weeks (January 18-February 1, 2018) is near average across about the northern half of the MARFC region, and below average across the southern half.  Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT FLOODING – NONE AT MARFC FORECAST POINTS

No MARFC forecast points are currently above flood stage within the MARFC region.  However, it is possible that some highly localized flooding due to ice jams is still occurring along stretches of streams and rivers in between official MARFC forecast points. 

RECENT PRECIPITATION – VARIABLE

During the last 30 days (December 18, 2017 – January 16, 2018) precipitation (liquid equivalent) was near normal to above normal across about the northern third of the region.  Further south, precipitation was generally below normal across about the central third of the region.  Finally across the southern third of the MARFC region precipitation has generally been much below average during the last 30 days.

SNOW CONDITIONS - BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE

Snow currently covers the ground across about the northwestern half of MARFC region, which is fairly typical for mid-winter.  A few to several inches of snow is also found across portions of VA from yesterday’s snow event.  However the most hydrologically significant snow within the MARFC service area is found north of a line from about Johnstown to Allentown, PA, then northeastward to about Poughkeepsie, NY.  In this region snow depths generally range from 4-12 inches with corresponding water equivalent values of generally 0.5-1.5 inches.  Locally higher amounts are found within this area.  In this region snow conditions are currently considered perhaps a little below average for mid-winter.  To the south and east, snow conditions are fairly typical for this time of year, though the several inches of snow currently on the ground in VA is a bit uncommon.  Snow information can be found by visiting https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TO AVERAGE

Unusually cold weather from late December through early January allowed considerable river ice to form across much of the MARFC region.  Then a milder, wetter weather pattern developed which broke up much of the river ice.  Numerous ice jams formed throughout the MARFC region as a result of the ice break-up, leading to isolated areas of flooding.  The rain and milder temperatures did not flush the ice from the rivers completely, and in fact much river ice remains, especially across the northwestern half of the MARFC region.  River ice conditions in this region remain average to somewhat above average for mid-winter.  With a milder and wetter weather pattern likely during the next week and perhaps longer, additional ice movement is anticipated.  As such, additional ice jams are possible which may result in localized flooding, especially along streams and rivers in the Susquehanna and Delaware River Basins.  Meanwhile, there is much less river ice remaining across southern and eastern portions of the region than there was even a week ago, so ice conditions there are now about average.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

While many stream gages remain affected by ice, the latest information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates below-average or much below-average stream flows continue across much of the southeastern half of the MARFC area.  However the mild, wet weather of last week elevated streamflow conditions across the northwestern half of the region back to the range of normal to much-above normal.  Please visit the USGS web pages at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

The long-term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions.  The latest chart (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif)  issued on January 13, 2018 suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is fairly close to normal for this time of year, though some wetness has developed across portions of PA and NY due to the snowmelt and rainfall of late last week.  However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates considerable soil moisture deficits remain across large portions of the MARFC region, especially eastern and southern regions.

GROUNDWATER – NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

Most USGS groundwater monitoring wells within the MARFC region are currently indicating groundwater levels that are in the normal to below normal range.  Noticeable improvement has been noted across about the northern half of the region due to the snowmelt/rainfall event in that region late last week.  Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are average/below average for this time of year.  For example, reservoir storage in the upper Delaware River basin is below the long-term median but still within the normal range.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS – MILDER AND WETTER

Moderating temperatures are expected this week, along with generally only light precipitation for the next several days.  A storm system and its associated cold front may produce moderate-heavy precipitation – much of which may be rain - around next Tuesday-Wednesday, January 23-24.  This storm should be closely monitored for its potential to cause snowmelt and heavy rainfall, especially across the northern half of the region where the most hydrologically significant snow is found.  Additionally, river ice movement is likely again in association with this weather system, and localized ice jam flooding is possible especially along streams and rivers within the Susquehanna and Delaware River Basins.  Longer range weather outlooks suggest a pretty good chance that both temperatures and precipitation may end up above average for the second week of this two-week outlook period as well.  Please visit http://www.cpc/ncep.noaa.gov for longer range weather outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS – NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO MARFC SOFTWARE UPGRADES TODAY

Due to major software upgrades being performed at MARFC as this outlook was being prepared, Ensemble River Forecasts could not be run for this outlook.  We apologize for any inconvenience.  Ensemble river forecasts can normally be viewed at https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

AHPS RIVER FORECASTS – NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO MARFC SOFTWARE UPGRADES TODAY

Due to major software upgrades being performed at MARFC as this outlook was being prepared, AHPS River Forecasts could not be run for this outlook.  Again, we apologize for any inconvenience.

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is about average across about the northern half of the region, and below average across the southern half.  There is an indication that a fairly warm and wet weather system could cross the region around next Tuesday-Wednesday, January 23-24.  As such this storm could cause snowmelt, moderate/heavy rainfall, and river ice movement, especially across the northern half of the MARFC service area.  It is possible that some river flooding could result from the effects of this potential storm.  The evolution of this potential storm should be monitored during the next several days.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (January 9, 2018) U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), large portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.  Driest regions are across the south and east.  Above-average precipitation in these areas this winter would be beneficial to prevent more serious water supply problems from developing this spring and summer. Visit https://www.drought.gov, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC/?REF=AYMT_HOMEPAGE_PANEL and on twitter @NWSMARFC.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks on/ABOUT February 1, 2018.

MARFC/STK

Outlook #1 released on January 4, 2018.


WINTER/SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
2:13 PM EST THU JAN 04 2018

OUTLOOK NUMBER 18-01 - JANUARY 4, 2018

 

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (mid- Atlantic region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, and others. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

 

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL

The river flood potential for MARFC rivers during the next two weeks is below average. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

 

CURRENT FLOODING

None.

 

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE

During the last 30 days (December 5, 2017 – January 3, 2018) precipitation (liquid equivalent) was below normal to much-below normal across all of the MARFC service area.

 

SNOW CONDITIONS - BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE

Snow covers the ground across most of the MARFC region as of this morning, due in part to the snowstorm currently affecting eastern portions of the service area. Across most of the area snow depths are less than 6 inches and snow water equivalents are less than a half inch. Of course isolated locations have somewhat higher values. Across eastern portions of the area, the current snowstorm is expected to deposit 6- 12+ inches of snow, with up to an inch of water equivalent. Most of this snow will accumulate east of MARFC`s river basins. However, river basins in NJ, southeast pa and northern de will see some significant snow from this storm. Snow conditions are currently considered below average to average for most of the region, and in fact are generally hydrologically insignificant. While the current snowstorm will create above-average snow conditions for extreme eastern portions of the area, the significant snow will be east of most of our river basins. Snow information can be found by visiting https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow AND https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

 

RIVER ICE - SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE

The unusually cold weather recently has allowed river ice to form across much of the MARFC region. Both the extent and thickness of the river ice is considered somewhat above average at this time. After an extremely cold weekend, milder temperatures are anticipated next week which will begin to erode river ice across southern and eastern portions of the region.

 

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - BELOW TO MUCH-BELOW AVERAGE

While many stream gages are currently affected by ice, the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicate below-average or much below-average stream flows across the MARFC area. Please visit the USGS web pages at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt for current streamflow data.

 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

The long-term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions. The December 30, 2017 chart (found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils across much of the MARFC service area contain moisture that is fairly close to normal for this time of year. However, other detailed soil moisture information (go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring) indicates considerable soil moisture deficits across large portions of the MARFC region, especially eastern and southern regions.

 

GROUNDWATER - MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL

Most USGS groundwater monitoring wells within the MARFC region are currently indicating groundwater levels that are below or much-below their long-term normals for this time of year. Please visit https://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

 

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are below average/average for this time of year. Reservoir storage in the upper Delaware River basin is below the long-term median but still within the normal range.

 

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS

Today`s coastal snowstorm will move away from the region tonight. Bitter cold but dry weather is expected this weekend, with some lake effect snow in the usual regions. Milder weather, compared to recently, is expected for much of next week. A storm system early next week will produce light-moderate precipitation, as will a late week storm system. At this time there are no strong indications of any widespread heavy rain events for at least the next week. Longer-range weather outlooks suggest temperatures will stay pretty close to normal for January, with normal or above normal precipitation.

 

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS

No threat of river flooding developing. The most recent runs (January 3, 2018) of the ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show no river flooding developing within the MARFC region for at least the next week. No widespread heavy rain events are anticipated for at least the next week. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs for ensemble river forecasts.

 

AHPS RIVER FORECASTS - NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL

The advanced hydrologic prediction service (AHPS) generates long-term (14 days or greater) probabilistic river forecasts based on current basin conditions (river levels, soil moisture, extent and condition of any snowpack) along with 50 years of historic temperature and precipitation data. However, it is important to note that AHPS river forecasts do not take into account actual future weather conditions whereas ensemble river forecasts (see previous section) do. For this outlook period (through January 18, 2018) current AHPS river forecasts indicate below-normal to normal chances of river flooding across the MARFC region.

 

SUMMARY

For the next two weeks the river flood potential for rivers in the MARFC region is below average. At this time no widespread significant rain events are indicated for at least the next week. Low stream flows, dry soils and limited snow conditions are also helping create the below average river flood threat.

 

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (January 4, 2018) U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), large portions of the MARFC service area continue to show conditions that range from abnormally dry to moderate drought. Driest regions are across the south and east. Above-average precipitation this winter would be beneficial across most of the MARFC region to prevent more serious water supply problems from developing this spring and summer. Visit https://www.drought.gov, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.weather.gov/marfc/wro_north for additional drought and water supply information.

 

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at https://www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC/?REF=AYMT_HOMEPAGE_PANEL and on twitter @NWSMARFC.

 

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks on January 18, 2018.