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Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
12:00 pm EDT Thu, March 17, 2022


Outlook Number 22-06 - March 17, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period March 17 - 31, 2022.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE NORTH, BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through March 31, 2022) is average for northern areas for late March but is below average for southern areas of the MARFC area of responsibility. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - ABOVE/MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH, BELOW/MUCH BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

During the last 30 days (February 14, 2022 - March 15, 2022) observed precipitation across northern parts of the MARFC region including southern NY and north-central PA has ranged from 1.0 to 2.0 above average. Observed precipitation further south including southern PA, NJ, DE, MD, VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV has ranged from 1.0 to 2.0 below average. Between these regions in areas including central and northeast PA, the Catskill Region of NY, and far western MD along with the westernmost areas of the eastern panhandle of WV, precipitation has been about average. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

As of this morning (March 17, 2022), little or no snow covers the ground in the MARFC area of responsibility. Areal extent, depth, and snow water equivalents are below normal for northern areas including southern NY and northern PA but are about normal elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Currently there is no significant river ice remaining on or in MARFC rivers. The loss of river ice is perhaps a little early for portions of NY and northern PA, but not at all unusual.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL NORTH, NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTH

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the MARFC region are near or above normal in southern NY, PA, and the northern half of NJ. Streamflow conditions are normal or below normal in the southern half of NJ, DE, MD, VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - MOIST NORTH, DRY SOUTH

Soil moisture is about generally above average across southern NY and the northern half of PA. Soil moisture is generally below average further south in the southern half of PA, NJ, MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The March 12, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are moist in the north to somewhat dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH, NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to above average in southern NY, PA except southeast, and NJ except the southern third. Groundwater wells are normal or below normal in southeast PA, southern third of NJ, DE, MD, VA. and the eastern panhandle of WV. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH, NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are running mostly near average for this time of year though some reservoirs in southern areas are a bit below average while some reservoirs in northern areas are a bit above. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing near or even somewhat above average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - WARM AND WET

An exiting storm system is expected to bring light to moderate amounts of precipitation to southern and eastern areas today while another weak system early this weekend is expected to bring light to moderate precipitation to northern areas. Another system is expected to bring more light to moderate precipitation by the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures are also expected early in the outlook period. When considering the entire 6 to 14 day outlook period, near or above average temperatures and above average precipitation looks likely in the longer range. The latest (March 16, 2022) 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that temperatures are likely to be near or above normal. Meanwhile, precipitation is likely to be above normal. So to summarize, temperatures are likely to average out to be above normal while precipitation is likely to be above average over the nine-day period March 22 - 30, 2022. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - LIMITED/LOW THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (March 17, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show no strong signals for any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of March 27, 2022). Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for late March and early April. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Persistent long term dryness in southern areas has led to overall drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Further north, more frequent storms and heavier precipitation has left this area wetter. Meanwhile, there is no meaningful snow or ice remaining within the MARFC service area. With the lack of available snow and river ice to contribute to runoff, there are no strong signals that indicate more than average chances for flooding for the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic. The southern half of the MARFC region has been recently dry to the point where a below normal chance for spring flooding is expected. There are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (March 15, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are present in the parts of the Catskill Region of NY, the southeastern third of PA, all but northeast NJ, parts of northern and southern DE, most of MD, northern and central VA, and scattered parts of the eastern panhandle of WV. Moderate drought conditions are present in parts of southeastern PA and southern NJ. Assuming near or above normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022. However, should below average precipitation continue, especially for the southern portion of the MARFC service area, then drought conditions could develop. Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/nwsmarfc/?REF=aymt_homepage_panel and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

This will be the final winter/spring river flood outlook product issued by this office for the 2022 season unless unusual conditions occur which warrant an additional release.

Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
12:40 pm EDT Thu, March 3, 2022


Outlook Number 22-05 - March 3, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period March 3 - 17, 2022. This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding. Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE SOUTHEAST AREAS

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through March 17, 2022) is average for early March for much of the MARFC area of responsibility. However, the potential is below average for southeast VA and the middle and lower Delmarva Peninsula. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - ABOVE/MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH, BELOW/MUCH BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

During the last 30 days (February 1, 2022 - March 3, 2022) observed precipitation across northern parts of the MARFC region including southern NY, northern two thirds of PA, and northwest NJ has ranged from 1.0" to 2.5" above average. Observed precipitation in southern areas including southern NJ, DE, MD, VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV has ranged from 1.0" to 2.0" below average. Between these regions in areas including southern PA, the remainder of NJ, and parts of northernmost MD along with the westernmost areas of MD, VA, and WV, precipitation has been about average. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL

As of this morning (March 3, 2022), snow covers about 20 percent of the ground in the Mid-Atlantic. The snow/no snow line runs west to east along the southern tier counties of NY where it then runs southeast to include northeastern PA. The extent of snow is below to much below normal for early March as snow is typically on the ground considerably further south of this line. Snow covers much of the ground in southern NY and in northeastern parts of PA. Snow depths range from 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Snow water equivalents in this area range from 0.25" to 1.0" with isolated higher amounts. This is below/much below normal for early March. Elsewhere in PA only isolated areas of snow remain with snow water equivalents in this area generally under 0.25". This is also below/much below normal for early March. Elsewhere, little or no snow is on the ground which is normal for much of VA, all but far western MD, southern PA, DE, and southern NJ. Snow conditions are, overall, below normal, if not much below normal, for this time of year which is usually the time of winter when snow within the MARFC region is at its maximum extent and contains the most water. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Currently, little or no ice covers streams or rivers in the Mid-Atlantic. This is below normal for northern areas but is fairly typical for the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic in early March. A considerable reduction in ice occurred in the past 2 weeks. River ice is unlikely to form again this season as formation is difficult in March and temperatures are expected to be mostly above normal over the next 2 weeks. Today`s NWS Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day (through March 16) temperature outlooks both suggest that warm temperatures are expected throughout much of these outlook periods with a cool down later in the period.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT BELOW/MUCH BELOW SOUTHEAST

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the MARFC region are near or above normal in southern NY, PA except the far southeast, northern half of NJ, western MD, western VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV. Streamflow conditions are below or much below normal in far southeast PA, the southern half of NJ, DE, central and eastern MD, as well as central and eastern VA. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO MOIST NORTH, DRY SOUTH

Soil moisture is about average or above average across southern NY, northern two thirds of PA, and northern NJ portions of the MARFC service area but are dry in the rest of PA, the rest of NJ, MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The February 26, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are somewhat moist in the north to somewhat dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to above average in southern NY, PA except southeast, and NJ except the southern third. Groundwater wells are normal or below normal in southeast PA, southern third of NJ, DE, MD, VA. and the eastern panhandle of WV. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR AVERAGE NORTH NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are running mostly near average for this time of year though some reservoirs in southern areas are a bit below average. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing near or even somewhat above average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - WARM AND WET THEN ENDING COOLER

A storm system is expected to bring light to moderate amounts of precipitation and warm temperatures to the MARFC service area in the Sunday/Monday time period. The heaviest precipitation is expected in northern areas where some heavy amounts are possible. Otherwise, only brief periods of light precipitation are expected early in the outlook period. When considering the entire 6 to 14 day outlook period, above average temperatures and above average precipitation looks likely in the longer range with cooler temperatures near the end of the outlook period. The latest (March 2, 2022) 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that temperatures are likely to be above normal but turning cooler late in the period. Meanwhile, precipitation is likely to be above normal. So to summarize, temperatures are likely to average out to be above normal much of the time while precipitation is likely to be above average much of the time as well over the nine-day period March 8 - 16, 2022. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - LIMITED/LOW THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (March 3, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show that some mostly minor flooding is possible early next week for northern areas. Otherwise, these forecasts show no strong signals for any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of March 13, 2022). Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for March. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Persistent long term dryness in southern areas has led to overall drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Further north, periods of warm weather along with a storm or two have led to an overall significant decrease in snowpack and leaving little or no ice on rivers. Additional ice formation is unlikely the rest of the season as climatologically warmer weather arrives and as warmer than normal and even wet weather conditions are expected. These weather conditions are likely to reduce snow cover and snow water equivalents even further. Snow continues to decrease covering only about 20 percent of the MARFC region. With the lack of snow and river ice in the MARFC service area, there are no strong signals that indicate more than average chances for flooding. Additionally, southeast VA has been recently dry to the point where a below normal chance for spring flooding is expected in this area. There are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days, though a storm late in the weekend and early next week could bring some significant rain to northern areas.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (March 1, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are scattered but present in the Catskill Region of NY; east-central and southeast PA; northwest and southern NJ; and west-central and southeastern VA. Assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022. However, southeastern areas need to be watched during the upcoming spring months. Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/nwsmarfc/?REF=aymt_homepage_panel and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next winter/spring river flood outlook product will be issued by this office March 16-17, 2022.

Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
1:30 pm EDT Thu, February 17, 2022

Outlook Number 22-04 - February 17, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period February 17 - March 3, 2022. This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding. Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN NY AND NORTHERN PA, OTHERWISE AVERAGE

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through March 3, 2022) is average for late February in the MARFC area of responsibility. However, the potential is above average early in the period for areas of northern PA and in southern NY. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE NORTH, BELOW/MUCH BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

During the last 30 days (January 18, 2022 - February 16, 2022) observed precipitation across northern parts of the MARFC region has ranged from near average to 1.0 below average. Observed precipitation in southern areas including southern PA, southern NJ, DE, MD, VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV are below or much below average. Precipitation deficits in this area range from 1 to 2. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL As of this morning (February 17, 2022), snow covers about 35 percent of the ground in the Mid-Atlantic. The snow/no snow line runs along or north of Interstate 80 in PA and then along or west of Interstate 99/US 220 from central PA southward into western MD and WV. Snow covers much of the region north or west of these lines. Snow is typically on the ground further south and east of these lines in the middle of February. Snow covers most of the ground in southern NY, in the northern half of PA as well as the highest mountains of central PA, in far western MD, and parts of the eastern panhandle of WV. In the region from south- central NY and north-central PA, snow depths range from 3 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts. Snow water equivalents in this area range from 1 to over 2. This is fairly typical for mid-February. In the remainder of southern NY, the remainder of PA including the higher mountains of central PA, far western MD, and parts of the eastern WV panhandle, snow depths range from 1 to 5 inches. Snow water equivalents in this area are generally around or under 0.5. This is below normal for mid-February. Elsewhere where snow exists, depths and water equivalents are minimal. Snow conditions are, overall, below normal for this time of year. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE Currently, most streams and rivers in southern NY and northern PA contain ice covering at least some of the water surface with complete ice cover on some river locations. This is fairly typical for the second half of February. In the remainder of PA, northern NJ, far western MD, and eastern WV, some ice covers the water surface, though most areas are ice free. Typically, these areas have more ice than currently observed. The most river ice is found in streams and rivers throughout the upper Susquehanna and upper Delaware River Basins where ice thickness is reported to be above average. Elsewhere, the river ice is not unusually thick or extensive for this time of year, and has decreased a fair amount from just two weeks ago. In areas not specifically mentioned, little or no river ice exists, which is normal for those areas. River ice conditions are expected to improve as ice melts and dislodges during the next two weeks as above average temperatures appear likely for much of the time. Though a cool down is expected late in the outlook period, river ice development becomes increasingly difficult as March begins. In the near term, normal or above normal temperatures are expected while today`s NWS Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day (through March 2) temperature outlooks both suggest that warm temperatures are expected throughout much of these outlook periods with a cooling trend of below normal temperatures near the end of the outlook period.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the MARFC region are near normal west of Interstate 95 and below normal east of Interstate 95 and most of VA for the date. Interstate 95 runs from New York City to Philadelphia to Baltimore and Washington. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - AVERAGE NORTH, DRY SOUTH

Soil moisture is about average across southern NY, northern two thirds of PA, and northern NJ portions of the MARFC service area but are dry in the rest of PA, the rest of NJ, MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The February 12, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are somewhat moist in the north to somewhat dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to below average for this time of year in southern NY, DE, MD, VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV. Groundwater wells are about normal in PA and NJ. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are running mostly near average for this time of year. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing somewhat below average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - WARM AND WET THEN ENDING COLDER

A major storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation and warm temperatures to the MARFC service area early in the outlook period. The heaviest precipitation is expected in northern areas. Another storm is expected early to middle parts of next week with more light to moderate amounts of precipitation. When considering the entire 6 to 14 day outlook period, above average temperatures and above average precipitation looks likely in the longer range. The latest (February 16, 2022) weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that temperatures are likely to be above normal but turning colder late in the outlook period. Meanwhile, precipitation is likely to be above normal. So to summarize, temperatures are likely to average out to be above normal much of the time while precipitation is likely to be above average over the entire nine-day period February 22 - March 2, 2022. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - LIMITED/LOW THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (February 16, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show a low to moderate chance for river flooding in northern portions of the MARFC service area. Further south, there are no strong signals for any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of February 17, 2022) within the southern half of the MARFC region. Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for late February into early March. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Persistent long term dryness has led to overall drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Periods of warm and cold weather along with a storm or two have led to an overall decrease in both snowpack as well as ice formation on rivers. Additional ice formation is unlikely to form in the next two weeks as warm and even wet weather conditions are expected. In fact, these weather conditions are likely to melt and/or dislodge more ice and reduce snow cover and snow water equivalents as well over the next couple of weeks. Snow has decreased over the past couple of weeks. Snow is on the ground for about 35 percent of the MARFC region. Effects of the warm weather will be felt on streams and rivers with both ice melt/movement and melting snow in northern areas. Along with a couple of rain events in the next several days, this area has an above average chance for spring flooding early in the outlook period. But with the lack of snow and river ice elsewhere in the MARFC service area, there are no strong signals that indicate more than average chances for flooding. Snow and ice are likely to continue to decrease where it exists. There are a couple of light to moderate precipitation events in the near term which increases the chances for river flooding in the north due to snowpack. Elsewhere, there are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (February 15, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are scattered but present in the Catskill Region of NY; east-central and southeast PA; northwest and southern NJ; and west-central and southeastern VA. Assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022.

Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information. Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next winter/spring river flood outlook product will be issued by this office March 2-3, 2022.

Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
2:05 pm EDT Thu, February 3, 2022


Outlook Number 22-03 - February 3, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period February 3 - February 17, 2022.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding. Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTHERN PA AND NJ EARLY, OTHERWISE AVERAGE

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through February 17, 2022) is average for early February in the MARFC area of responsibility. However, early in the outlook period, the potential is above average for areas of PA, especially southern PA, and in NJ. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW OR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE

During the last 30 days (January 4, 2022 - February 2, 2022) observed precipitation across the entire MARFC region has been below or much below average, running 0.5 to 2 inches below average. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL

As of this morning (February 3, 2022), snow covers about 60 percent of the ground in the Mid-Atlantic. The snow/no snow line runs north and west along the Blue Ridge Mountains from southwest VA northward into south-central and then east-central PA. From east-central PA the snow/no snow line then extends southward to the Chesapeake Bay where snow is on the ground east of this line and east of the Bay. Snow extent is fairly typical for early February except for the southern half of NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula where snow cover is above normal. Snow covers the ground in southern NY, in PA except for the lower Susquehanna Valley and southeastern sections, NJ, DE except the north, in western MD as well as in MD east of the Chesapeake Bay, western and northwestern VA, and the eastern panhandle of WV. In the region from southern NY, NJ, the northern half of PA, the higher mountains of central PA, and far western MD, snow depths range from 4 to 10 inches. Snow water equivalents in this area range from 1" to 2" except in NJ where water equivalents are under an inch. Elsewhere where snow exists, depths range from 1" to 2" and water equivalents are under 0.5". Snow conditions are relatively normal for this time of year plus or minus a fairly small amount. The exception is NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula where snow conditions are above normal. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE

Currently, most streams and rivers in NY, much of PA, northern NJ, western MD, eastern WV and northwestern VA have at least some ice in them with complete ice cover on some river locations. This is a fairly typical area for river ice to be observed in early February. The most river ice is found in streams and rivers throughout the Susquehanna and Delaware River Basins, which is also typical for early February. The river ice is not unusually thick or extensive for this time of year, but has increased a fair amount from just two weeks ago. In areas not specifically mentioned, little or no river ice exists, which is also normal for those areas. River ice conditions are expected to be variable during the next two weeks as periods of both above and below average temperatures appear likely. In the near term, a brief warm up and cool down is expected while today`s NWS Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day (through February 16) temperature outlooks both suggest that while short term temperatures are expected to be cold, moderating temperatures and then a cool down is likely later in these outlook periods.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - BELOW NORMAL

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the entire MARFC region are below normal for the date. There are scattered exceptions where flows are near normal but also scattered areas of much below normal flow. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - AVERAGE FAR NORTH, OTHERWISE DRY/VERY DRY

Soil moisture is about average across southern NY and northern PA portions of the MARFC service area but are dry or very dry in the rest of PA, NJ, MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The January 29, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are moist in the north to dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the very dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to below average for this time of year region-wide. While some locations indicate above average levels, these areas are too few to pinpoint any particular part of the MARFC service area. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are running mostly below average for this time of year. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing below average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - VARIABLE

A major, on-going storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation to the MARFC service area. The heaviest precipitation is expected north of the Potomac River. And, the northern edge is expected to be frozen/freezing with this line slowly dropping south. Runoff will become decreasingly concerning the further north one is in the MARFC service area. Dry/mostly dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the next 7 days after this storm passes. When considering the entire 6 to 14 day period, an average temperature and precipitation outlook looks likely in the longer range. The latest (February 2, 2022) weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that temperatures are likely to vary with periods of above as well as below normal temperatures. Meanwhile, precipitation is likely to be somewhat below normal much of the time but precipitation amounts are likely to increase late in the period. So to summarize, temperatures are likely to average out to normal while precipitation is likely to be average or below average over the entire nine-day period February 8 - 16, 2022. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - VERY LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (February 3, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show no strong signals for any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of February 13, 2022) within the MARFC region. Widespread river flooding in February is uncommon within the MARFC region, but is still possible. Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for February. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Long term dryness has led to overall drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Cold weather has led to ice formation on rivers, especially in the north. Additional ice will likely form in the next two weeks though mainly in the north, as cold February temperatures persist. However, warm and cold periods are expected which may melt and/or move some ice during warmer periods but may also allow for more formation during colder stretches. Snow has increased over the past couple of weeks, mainly in areas affected by a storm this past weekend. Snow is on the ground for about 60 percent of the MARFC region. Above average temperatures are expected to begin the outlook period, then turn colder, and then moderate over the next week or two. With an on-going heavy precipitation event, then dry weather, then back to near normal, it appears that weather conditions are likely to be quite variable over the next two weeks. Affects will be felt on streams and rivers with both ice and river level fluctuations, but with the exception of the current storm, there are no strong signals that indicate more than average chances for flooding. Snow and ice are likely to increase in the north but decrease in the south. There are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days after the current storm passes. And, there are no indications of any fast snowmelt events for this region at the present time, as temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal for the next couple of weeks.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (February 2, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are scattered but present in the Catskill Region of NY; south-central, east-central and southeast PA; northwest and southern NJ; and west-central and southwestern VA. A pocket of moderate drought is present in western VA. Assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022.

Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information. Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next winter/spring river flood outlook product will be issued by this office February 16-17, 2022.

Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
2:47 pm EDT Thu, January 20, 2022

Outlook Number 22-02 - January 20, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period January 6 - February 3, 2022.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - AVERAGE

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through February 3, 2022) is average for January into early February in the MARFC area of responsibility. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - NEAR AVERAGE

During the last 30 days (December 21, 2021 - January 19, 2022) observed precipitation across the MARFC region has mostly been near average plus or minus 0.5 inch. Areas ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch below average include southeastern NY, northeastern PA, and northwest VA. Areas ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch above average include south-central PA, the area around the middle and lower Chesapeake Bay region, and southeastern VA. Here in southeastern VA, amounts have been 2 inches above normal in some places. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL

As of this morning (January 20, 2022), snow covers the ground in southern NY and areas about 20 to 40 miles west of Interstate 95. Typically for mid to late January, the snow/no snow line extends roughly along or just west of Interstate 95 from northern NJ to near DC. South of DC, the snow/no snow line typically runs roughly 50 to 75 miles west of Interstate 95. In the region from southern NY, northern PA, and the higher mountains of central PA, western MD, eastern WV panhandle, and western VA, snow depths range from 4 to 11 inches. Snow water equivalents in this area range from 1" to over 1.5" in southern NY and northern PA. For the remainder of this region, snow water equivalents are 0.5" to 1". Eastward from here, snow depths are 1 to 3 inches and snow water equivalents range from one tenth to 0.5". Snow conditions are below normal for this time of year in northern NJ and southeastern PA. Snow conditions are about normal, more or less, for most of the remainder of the MARFC region. Snow conditions are above normal in western VA. Elsewhere where patchy snow exists, water equivalent values are negligible. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - SOME, NOT WIDESPREAD

Currently, some river ice exists on some rivers within the MARFC service area. In southern and southeastern NY and central PA, border ice and partially frozen channels are reported on many smaller streams and rivers. A bit more widespread ice coverage is reported on larger, slower moving, calmer river locations, such as the lower Susquehanna River. Additional river ice formation is likely during the next two weeks since we are now in the coldest time of the year and the latest NWS Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks both suggest colder or even much colder than normal temperatures.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR OR ABOVE MEDIAN

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the entire MARFC region are near median for the date. The exception is a band of above median streamflow conditions that can be found along Interstate 95 from northeast NJ southward to southern VA. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - SOMEWHAT WET FAR NORTH, OTHERWISE DRY/VERY DRY

Soils are a bit moist across southern NY portions of the MARFC service area but are dry or very dry in NJ as well as southern PA southward into MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The January 15, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are moist in the north to dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the very dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to below average for this time of year region-wide. While some locations indicate above average levels, these areas are too few to pinpoint any particular part of the MARFC service area. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are average or somewhat above average for this time of year. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - COLD AND DRY

At the present time there are no strong indications of any widespread heavy rain events for the MARFC region for the next 7 days. A storm system moving across the Southeast into early this weekend is expected to remain mostly south and east of the MARFC area of responsibility but could still bring light precipitation amounts in coastal and southeastern areas. Beyond that, little or no precipitation is expected in the next week. A cold weather pattern looks likely to continue in the longer range. The latest (January 19, 2022) weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that temperatures are likely to be below or even much below normal and precipitation to be below normal when averaged over the entire nine-day period January 25 - February 2, 2022. In southeastern VA, precipitation may average closer to normal. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - VERY LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (January 20, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show little threat of any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of January 30, 2022) within the MARFC region. Widespread river flooding in January and early February is uncommon within the MARFC region, but is still possible. Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for late January or early February. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Except for southern New York and northernmost Pennsylvania, long term dryness has led to overall drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Recent wet weather continues to nudge these conditions into a somewhat better situation, but mainly for streamflows. Colder, more seasonable weather has led to some ice formation on rivers, mainly in the north. Additional ice will likely form in the next two weeks as cold, January temperatures persist. Snow has increased significantly over the past couple of weeks, mainly as a result of a storm this past weekend. Snow is on the ground within the MARFC region west of Interstate 95. Below or even much below average temperatures are expected over the next week or two and are expected to minimize snowmelt but increase ice formation. However, snow should still gradually, slowly melt over southern sections. There are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days. And, there are no indications of any fast snowmelt events for this region at the present time, as temperatures are likely to be below or even much below normal for the next couple of weeks.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (January 18, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are present in south-central and southeast PA, southern NJ, the northern part of the Delmarva, parts of the eastern panhandle of WV, and central and western VA. Scattered pockets of moderate drought are present in western VA. Assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022.

Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information. Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next winter/spring river flood outlook product will be issued by this office February 2-3, 2022.

Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook
NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
State College, PA
2:20 pm EDT Thu, January 6, 2022

Outlook Number 22-01 - January 6, 2022


This Winter/Spring River Flood Potential Outlook is valid for the two-week period January 6-20, 2022.

This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) to develop during the next two weeks across the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center`s (MARFC) area of responsibility (Mid- Atlantic Region) based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which can contribute to river flooding. Across the MARFC area these factors include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow and other factors. This outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding.

Remember, in the Mid-Atlantic region heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered to be low or below average.

TWO-WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - BELOW TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE

The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through January 20, 2022) is much below average in southern NY and northern PA. Elsewhere, the river flood potential is below average for January in the MARFC area of responsibility. Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood potential are discussed in some detail below.

CURRENT RIVER FLOODING - NONE

No river flooding is currently occurring within the MARFC service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE

During the last 30 days (December 7, 2021 - January 5, 2022) observed precipitation across the entire MARFC region has been near or below average. Areas ranging from 0.5 to 2+ inches below average include southern NY, the eastern half of PA, NJ, northern two thirds of DE, central and northeast MD, much of the eastern panhandle of WV, as well as west-central and northern VA. The remainder of the MARFC area of responsibility has been plus or minus 0.5 inch from average. Precipitation departure data can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

SNOW CONDITIONS - BELOW NORMAL NORTH, ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH

As of this morning (January 6, 2022), snow covers the ground in VA except the southeast and far northwest, in central MD, the northern and central Delmarva Peninsula, and in southern NJ. In this region, snow depths range from 2 to 8 inches. Snow water equivalents in this area range from 0.25 to nearly 0.75. Typically for early January, the snow/no snow line extends roughly 20 to 40 miles north of the northern edge of the current snow cover line with snow cover to the north and little or none to the south. Snow conditions are below normal for this time of year north of this line and above normal for this time of year south of this line. Elsewhere where patchy snow exists, mainly southern NY, water equivalent values are negligible. Snow information can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

RIVER ICE - NONE

Currently, no significant river ice exists on rivers within the MARFC service area. Some river ice formation is likely during the next two weeks given that we are now approaching what is typically the coldest time of the year, and the latest NWS Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks both suggest normal or colder than normal temperatures.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR MEDIAN

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates current streamflow conditions within the entire MARFC region are near median for the date. Some above median streamflow conditions can be found in central PA and eastern VA, while some below median streamflow conditions can be found in the southern half of NJ and scattered in parts of northern NJ, the Delmarva Peninsula, and northwest VA. For current streamflow conditions please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - SOMEWHAT WET FAR NORTH, OTHERWISE DRY/VERY DRY

Soils are moist across southern NY portions of the MARFC service area but are dry or very dry in the southern half of NJ as well as southern PA southward into MD, DE, WV and VA. The long-term Palmer drought severity index is useful to estimate deep soil moisture conditions. The January 1, 2022 map (seen at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif) suggests deep soils are moist in the north to dry in the south. Additional soil moisture data confirms the very dry soils across southern portions of the region. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring.

GROUNDWATER - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH, AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH

Within the MARFC service area, real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate current groundwater levels generally range from average to above average for this time of year in the northern half of the MARFC area of responsibility and average to below average groundwater levels for the southern half. To see groundwater levels visit groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/usgsgwnetworks.asp.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE

Most major reservoirs within the MARFC region are holding storages that are average or somewhat above average for this time of year. For example, reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin that supply NYC with water are showing above-average storage for this time of year.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - COLD AND DRY

At the present time there are no strong indications of any widespread heavy rain events for the MARFC region for the next 7 days. A storm system moving across the Southeast into early tomorrow as well as another system late this weekend are expected to bring light to moderate precipitation amounts. A seasonably cold weather pattern looks likely to continue in the longer range. The latest (January 5, 2022) weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that both temperatures and precipitation may be near or below normal when averaged over the entire nine-day period January 11-19, 2022. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the outlooks.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS - VERY LIMITED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING

The most recent runs (January 6, 2022) of the short-term (6-10 day) ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, show little threat of any river flooding developing during the next 6-10 days (through the morning of January 16, 2022) within the MARFC region. Widespread river flooding in January and early February is uncommon within the MARFC region, but is still possible. Please visit www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Longer-term forecasts suggest no apparent increased chance for river flooding compared to normal for January. Any future river flooding will depend primarily on shorter-term weather conditions, such as the occurrence of widespread heavy rainfall.

SUMMARY

Except for southern New York and northern-most Pennsylvania, long term dryness has led to drier than usual conditions for soils, streamflow, and groundwater. Only recent wet weather from the past few days has nudged these conditions into a somewhat better situation. Recent warm weather has left rivers free of ice and has melted just about all snow in the north. However, some ice will likely form in the next two weeks. The only significant snow on the ground at this time within the MARFC region is across much of Virginia, the Chesapeake Bay region of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Despite near or below average temperatures expected over the next week or two, this snow should gradually, slowly melt. There are currently no strong indicators for heavy rainfall that could result in river flooding during the next 7 days. Despite the southern extent of the snow cover, there are no indications of any fast snowmelt events for this region at the present time, as temperatures are likely to be pretty close to normal or below normal for the next couple of weeks.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK

According to the latest (January 4, 2022) U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu), abnormally dry conditions are present in south-central and southeast PA, southern NJ, parts of the Delmarva, the eastern panhandle of WV, and VA. Scattered pockets of moderate drought are present in VA. Assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, few or no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through April, 2022.

Please visit www.drought.gov, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov/marfc/WRO for additional drought and water supply information.

Please visit the NWS MARFC homepage at www.weather.gov/marfc or find us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSMARFC and on Twitter @nwsmarfc.

The next winter/spring river flood outlook product will be issued by this office January 19-20, 2022.