Probabilistic Decision Support Page

Welcome to the NWS Memphis Probabilistic Decision Support Services Page. Information contained here is intended to show a range of weather possibilities that the area could experience over the next seven days for certain weather variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation, etc.). Graphics shown on this page are the official forecast as well as graphics generated/derived from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of Models (NBM) and PWPF data.

The NWS NBM was implemented nationally to provide a consistent suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS model output. The NBM serves as an initial starting point of reference to help forecasters deliver the most consistent and accurate weather forecasts and warnings to the Nation.

Graphics on this page are generally updated twice per day at 4:00 AM and 4:00 PM.

Temperatures
Heat
Freeze
Snow
Ice
Wind

Temperature Probabilities

Expected High Temperature - Official NWS Forecast	Highest High Temperature
Expected High Temperature - Official NWS Forecast	Lowest High Temperature

Expected Low Temperature - Official NWS Forecast	Highest Low Temperature
Expected Low Temperature - Official NWS Forecast	Lowest Low Temperature

Heat Probabilities

Probability Above 90 Degrees F

Probability Above 100 Degrees F

Freeze Probabilities

Probability Below 32 Degrees F

Probability Below 28 Degrees F

Snow Probabilities

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast	Highest Snowfall
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast	Lowest Snowfall

Prob Snow above 1 inch

Prob Snow above 2 inches

Prob Snow above 4 inches

Prob Snow above 6 inches

Ice Probabilities

Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast	Highest Ice Accumulation
Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast	Lowest Ice Accumulation

Prob Ice above 0.01 inch

Prob Ice above 0.10 inch

Prob Ice above 0.25 inch

Prob Ice above 0.50 inch

Wind Probabilities

Sustained Wind Above 20 mph

Sustained Wind Above 25 mph

Wind Gust Above 25 mph

Wind Gust Above 40 mph

Wind Gust Above 55 mph

Expected High Temperature	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Warmest Possible High Temperature	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Coldest Possible High Temperature	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Expected Low Temperature		Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Warmest Possible Low Temperature		Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Coldest Possible Low Temperature		Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of High Temperature Above 90 Degrees	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of High Temperature Above 100 Degrees	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Low Temperature Below 32 Degrees		Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Low Temperature Below 28 Degrees		Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Expected Amount of Snow Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Highest Possible Amount of Snow Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Lowest Possible Amount of Snow Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 1 inch of Snow	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 2 inches of Snow	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 4 inches of Snow	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 6 inches of Snow	Day1	Day2	Day3
Expected Amount of Ice Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Highest Possible Amount of Ice Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Lowest Possible Amount of Ice Accumulation	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 0.01 inch of Ice	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 0.10 inch of Ice	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 0.25 inch of Ice	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of at Least 0.50 inch of Ice	Day1	Day2	Day3
Probability of Sustained Winds Above 20 mph	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Sustained Winds Above 25 mph	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Wind Gusts Above 25 mph	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Wind Gusts Above 40 mph	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7
Probability of Wind Gusts Above 55 mph	Day1	Day2	Day3	Day4	Day5	Day6	Day7

Critical Fire Weather in the West; Monitoring Tropical Storm Erin

Probabilistic Decision Support Page