Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

Stubborn East Coast Low; Locally Heavy Rain in the Four Corners Region

A stubborn area of low pressure will keep conditions inclement for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with rain showers and gusty winds through Wednesday. Meanwhile, locally heavy to excessive rain is possible across the Four Corners region over the next couple of days. Read More >

NERFC Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

Seasonal flood outlooks have ended for the season. View our routine five day flood outlook here.

Outlook Graphic

Outlook Text

Local Outlook Text

Important Links

Seasonal outlooks have ended for the 2022 calendar year.

Local NWS Office Flood Outlook Discussions:
(check the date near the top of each product to ensure it is current!)

Precip Departures from Normal

Cold Season Self Briefing Page

To view long-range probabilistic guidance at our river forecast locations, use the following directions:

Visit our main page at https://www.weather.gov/nerfc
Click on the circle icon for the river forecast point you wish to view.
On the next page, hover over the tab near the top labeled Probability Information
There are three options shown.
1. The first, Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels, gives a week-by-week probability of exceeding certain values over the next 90 days.
2. The second, Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period, combines these into a single graphic over the 90 day period. The easiest way to read this second graphic: if the black line is above the blue line, the probability of reaching a given stage/flow is higher than normal for the time period. You can also follow the black line to a given value to see the probability of that value occurring.

Note: All our probabilities are based on natural flow, without any ice effects. Ice effects may cause flooding even when natural flow is limited.