NERFC Snow Page
Precip Departures from Normal
Cold Season Self Briefing Page
To view long-range probabilistic guidance at our river forecast locations, use the following directions:
- Visit our main page at https://www.weather.gov/nerfc
- Click on the circle icon for the river forecast point you wish to view.
- On the next page, hover over the tab near the top labeled Probability Information
- There are three options shown.
- The first, Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels, gives a week-by-week probability of exceeding certain values over the next 90 days.
- The second, Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period, combines these into a single graphic over the 90 day period. The easiest way to read this second graphic: if the black line is above the blue line, the probability of reaching a given stage/flow is higher than normal for the time period. You can also follow the black line to a given value to see the probability of that value occurring.
Note: All our probabilities are based on natural flow, without any ice effects. Ice effects may cause flooding even when natural flow is limited.