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NERFC Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Northeast River Forecast Center Norton MA
751 AM EST Thu Feb 02 2023

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /3/

The Winter/Spring flood potential for the northeastern United States
is near normal across Maine...portions of New Hampshire including
the White Mountain region...portions of southern Vermont and
portions of southern New England.

The Winter/Spring flood potential is below normal most elsewhere.

The potential for flooding due to ice jams is near normal across the
northern basins particularly northern and western Maine...northern
New Hampshire...also parts of northern Vermont and into northern New
York State including the Adirondacks. The potential for flooding due
to ice jams includes an isolated threat across western and central
New York east into parts of interior eastern New York and interior
southern New England. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is
below normal elsewhere.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

January 2023 has mostly been characterized by a continuation of
milder than normal temperatures above normal precipitation and below
normal snowfall across most of the NERFC area. Portions of northern
New England however received above normal snowfall in January.

Temperatures have averaged 7F to 10F above normal in January
with any cold outbreaks being very temporary.

Melted liquid equivalent precipitation departures in January were
generally up to 4 inches above normal. The highest departures were
found from eastern Maine to Cape Cod. The highest was +5.64 inches
in Barnstable county Cape Cod. Precipitation departures were near
normal across portions of the southern tier of New York.

January snow total departures were below normal in most areas except
above normal in parts of northern New England including Caribou,
Bangor and Portland Maine and Concord New Hampshire.
The greatest below normal snowfall departures were found in
portions of central and western New York.

Looking ahead...a transition to below normal temperatures is
occurring in the near term along with drier conditions outside of
lake effect areas.

A La Nina pattern remains with colder than normal average
temperatures noted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. An active Pacific
Jet Stream is usually associated with the La Nina.

The latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region is
-0.6C sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. However sea surface
temperature anomalies have been showing positive (warming) changes
particularly across the eastern Pacific region during the past
couple of months. According to the CPC Probabilistic outlook...the
most likely scenario is for a gradual transition from La Nina to
Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase through April 2023.

The Pacific North American (PNA) has been near neutral and this is
currently expected to continue. Recent indications show that the PNA
may turn negative once again longer range.

The North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) index has been slightly
positive allowing for the jet stream to generally remain progressive
with any arctic air being transitory and mostly remaining north in
Canada. The current NAO forecast phase continues to show little
change with its slightly positive phase remaining into mid February.

Overall a La Nina pattern is favored to bring troughing in parts of
the north central and western contiguous U.S. with ridging across
the southeastern U.S. A neutral to negative PNA and positive NAO
would continue to favor the bulk of colder air being shunted away
from the NERFC area along with an active Pacific jet stream. More
nearby ridging extending from the southeastern U.S. would favor
southwest flow and a more inland storm track.

During the next couple of weeks we are anticipating above normal
average temperatures to prevail along with an above normal frequency
of precipitation. Above normal precipitation is possible pending the
timing and phasing of jet stream energy.

Week one: Arctic cold near term will be replaced by moderating
temperatures. Heavy lake effect snows bring 0.25 up to localized
0.50+ inch liquid equivalents especially near Tug Hill through 2/4.
A frontal system is forecast to advance around 2/5-6 with light QPF
amounts expected. A second frontal system may arrive around February
8th which may yield some mixed precipitation.

Week two: Mid range ensemble forecasts showing at least one to two
low systems possible around 2/10-14. Low confidence on details of
low tracks and intensities at this time but generally an inland
primary low track is favored with the upcoming jet stream pattern.

The official NOAA 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks from 07 February
to 15 February 2023 are in general agreement...indicating best
chances for above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snowpack increased primarily across northern and central basin areas
during late January. NOHRSC now indicates 85 percent snow cover
across the Northeast with an average snow water equivalent of 2.6
inches as of 02 February 2023.

Snow cover encompasses 14 percent more of the Northeast since the
last outlook issuance on 19 January 2023 with the snow water average
1.2 inches higher.

Northern New England observed the most significant increase in snow
depths and snow water after the storm events of January 22-23 and
26th.

Since the last outlook issuance Caribou Maine`s snow depth increased
from 18 to 26 inches...Concord New Hampshire from a Trace to 13
inches...Portland Maine from an inch to 8 inches...Bangor Maine from
3 to 9 inches... Burlington Vermont from 5 inches to 11 inches.

...NEW YORK STATE...

In New York State most of the deep snowpack was confined to higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and portions of the Saint Lawrence
Valley. Snow water equivalents are generally less than 50 percent of
normal except around 75 percent of normal in parts of the
Adirondacks.

Looking at the New York City metropolitan area and most of the far
lower Hudson Valley region the ground was mostly bare with less than
an inch of spotty light snow cover. The latest first measurable snow
of 0.4 inch was recently reported at New York City Central Park.

Heading north across the remainder of the lower Hudson Valley region
including the Taconics and Catskills...spotty snow cover of an inch
or less is seen across the lower elevations mainly in wooded areas
with 1 to 4 inches across the higher terrain and into the eastern
Mohawk Valley. Snow water equivalents are generally NIL to 0.75 inch
with 0.75 to 1.25 inches from the Catskills into the eastern Mohawk
Valley.

Examining the Finger Lakes region and the Buffalo Creeks in central
and western New York...snow depths currently ranged from 1 to 3
inches across the Finger Lakes to 3 to 6+ inches east of Buffalo
from East Aurora to Warsaw on 01 February 2023. Snow water
equivalents range from 0.25 to 0.75 inch except nearing an inch east
of Buffalo.

Heading across the Black River basin east of Lake Ontario into the
Tug Hill region of the Adirondacks...Snow depths as of 1 February
2023 ranged from 2 to 5 inches near Lake Ontario and 8 to 16 inches
along Tug Hill. Osceola elevation 1093 feet reported a 16 inch snow
depth. Highmarket elevation approximately 1781 feet reported a 23
inch snow depth.

Snow water equivalents ranged from 0.75 to 1.50 inches nearing Lake
Ontario to 2.00 to 5.00 inches across the Black River basin into Tug
Hill. The highest snow water equivalents ranged from 4 to 5 inches
from the upper reaches of Boonville to Highmarket. These snow water
equivalents were averaging 50 percent or less of normal except
approaching 75 percent of normal along Tug Hill.

Observing the upper Hudson basin including the remainder of the
Adirondacks...snow depths vary from 6 to 12 inches with 12 to 18
inches across the peaks. Newcomb reported a snow depth of 16 inches
and Lake Placid 18 inches as of 01 February 2023. Snow water
equivalents generally ranged from 2 to 5 inches. The highest snow
water equivalents were found along the upper reaches near Newcomb.
Snow water equivalents were mostly running 50 to 75 percent of
normal entering the start of February.

Looking across the Saint Lawrence Valley region of northern
NY...snow depths varied from 6 to 16 inches. The highest snow depth
16 inches was reported at Malone as of 01 February 2023. Snow water
equivalents generally ranged from 2.00 to 4.00 inches. The highest
snow water equivalent of 4.00 inches was found along the Salmon
River at Fort Covington NY.

Examining the Champlain Valley region of northern NY...snow depths
generally ranged from 5 to 8 inches from Lake George to western
shoreline areas of Lake Champlain to 8 to 15 inches closer to the
Adirondacks and north to international border. Snow water
equivalents range from 1.50 to 4.00 inches. The highest snow water
equivalent was found along the upper reaches of the east branch of
the Ausable River in Ausable NY.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

Snow depths and snow water equivalents were generally 25 percent or
less of normal for early February but increase nearing normal in
parts of far northwestern Massachusetts.

Light spotty snow cover of an inch or less was found across most of
Connecticut...Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

Snow depths increase to 5 to 10 inches across the northern
Berkshires into Franklin and far northern Worcester counties in
Massachusetts.

Snow water equivalents ranged from NIL to less than 0.50 inch across
most of southern New England ranging up to 1.00 to 4.00 inches
across northwestern portions of Massachusetts. The highest snow
water values were found near Rowe and Charlemont.

...VERMONT...

Snow depths and water equivalents are 50 to 75 percent of normal for
early February...except closer to normal across some high terrain
areas.

The lower elevation snowpack in Vermont west of the Green Mountains
including the Lake Champlain region have increased to 6 to 11
inches. Snow water equivalents ranged from 1.50 to 2.50 inches
increasing to over 3 inches approaching the western slopes of
the Green Mountains.

Looking along the Missisquoi River of northern Vermont...Snow depths
generally range from 10 to 18 inches with the highest amounts in
eastern terrain areas near North Troy. Snow water equivalents vary
from 1.50 to 2.50 inches from Swanton to East Berkshire then 2.50 to
4.00 inches from East Berkshire to North Troy.

Heading across southern Vermont including portions of the middle
Connecticut River...Snow depths vary from 6 to 12+ inches with
lowest totals along the Connecticut River and highest across the
peaks above 1000 feet. Peru elevation 1650 feet and Landgrove
elevation 1400 feet reported 13 inch snow depths 01 February 2023.
Snow water equivalents generally range from 2.25 to 4.00 inches.
The highest snow water equivalents were found at the Harriman
Reservoir...West River at Townshend Lake and Ball Mountain Lake.

Looking at the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont including the upper
Connecticut River...Snow depths vary from 6 to 12 inches along the
upper Connecticut River and 8 to 18+ inches above 1000 feet. Snow
water equivalents mostly range from 2.00 to 4.00 inches with locally
5+ inches over the higher terrain. The highest snow water equivalent
was found along the Black River at North Springfield and the
Ottauquechee River at North Hartland Lake.

Mount Mansfield elevation 4395 feet reported a 41 inch snow depth on
30 January 2023. This is 10 inches below the long term average of 51
inches.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

Snow water equivalents are generally 50 to 75 percent of normal
except near normal across the White Mountains and less than 50
percent of normal from Manchester to the Seacoast region.

Looking across southern portions of the state from the seacoast to
the Monadnock region...snow depths vary from bare ground up to a few
inches from Manchester to Nashua and the Seacoast region...then 8 to
14 inches from Concord to the Monadnock region. Snow water
equivalents vary from NIL to 1.50 inch along lower elevation areas
and 2.00 to 3.50 inches from the Monadnocks to Concord NH.

Heading a further north across northern New Hampshire...snow depths
vary from 12 to 18 inches except 2 to 4 feet across elevations above
1500 feet. Carter Notch elevation approximately 4400 feet reported a
snow depth of 44 inches as of 01 February 2023...an increase of 17
inches from the last outlook. Snow water equivalents range from 3.50
to 5.50 inches with locally up to 7.00 inches across the peaks.

The highest snow water equivalents were found along the upper
reaches of the Pemigewasset River at Woodstock and Plymouth...and
the upper reaches of the Ammonoosuc River at Bethlehem.

...MAINE...

Snow water equivalents were close to normal now with the highest
amounts across northern and western parts of the state to the
foothills.

Coastal areas from Portland to Bangor were generally reporting 5 to
9 inch snow depths. Snow depths were around 2 inches at York Village
in far southern coastal Maine and Eastport in far northern coastal
Maine. Snow water equivalents mostly vary from 0.50 to 3.00 inches
in this region.

Snow depths quickly increase nearing the foothills to 12 to 18
inches and snow water equivalents range from 3.50 to 5.50 inches
with some water loading of the snowpack in this region.

Heading across western mountains and across northern Maine snow
depths generally range from 15 to 30 inches with some higher depths
up to 35 to 40 inches northwest of Caribou into the Saint John
Valley. Higher terrain areas were observing 2 to 4 foot snow depths.
Chimney Pond at Katahdin recently reported a 47 inch snow depth...an
increase of 13 inches since the last outlook.

Snow water equivalents generally range 4.00 to 7.00 inches locally
higher across the peaks. The highest snow water equivalents were
found along the Big Black River at Clayton Lake...Allagash
River...Fish River and Saint John River at Fort Kent...Aroostook
River at Washburn...Kennebec River at Moosehead...the Forks and
Bingham...the Piscataquis River at Dover-Foxcroft...Swift River at
Roxbury...Carrabasset River at North Anson.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

In general above normal precipitation and melt in January has
allowed for near to above normal surface soil moisture anomalies as
of 30 January 2023.

Above normal soil surface moisture anomalies continued across much
of eastern New England from Maine and New Hampshire into southern
New England due to combined above normal precipitation and snowmelt.

Near normal soil moisture anomalies were found across most of
far western New England into New York state. The below normal area
previously in the lower Hudson Valley has improved to near normal.

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spans weeks to several
months in the past. The latest data from 28 January 2023 showed most
regions in the NERFC service area at above normal moisture states
except near normal across southern Connecticut and Long Island.

Some of the wettest conditions were shown in New York State around
Lakes Erie and Ontario where an extremely moist spell was indicated.
This includes areas that melted much of their deep snowpack during
the heavy lake effect snow event from just before Christmas
including locations such as Buffalo and Watertown. Very moist
conditions were also found in the Mohawk and Champlain Valleys of
New York.

Very moist conditions were found in most of eastern New England.
Extremely moist conditions were found along the foothills of Maine
due to above normal precipitation and water loading of the snowpack
in place.

Unusually moist conditions extended across most of the remainder of
the Northeast due to above normal precipitation and some melt. Long
Island and southern Connecticut improved some from below normal to
near normal moisture states.

Taking a look at groundwater monitoring wells across the region
courtesy of the United States Geological Survey ( USGS )...

In New York State...Groundwater levels were mostly near to above
normal with additional snow water available for recharge primarily
in northern areas. Some below normal groundwater levels were found
across parts of the Long Island Aquifers including near Calverton
but improvements were observed at Upton and Westbury. Below normal
groundwater levels were also found in parts of the eastern Finger
Lakes at Moravia. Locally in the Saint Lawrence Valley region
Louisville was running between 25th and 50th percentile levels.

SUNY Albany reported near 75th percentile level for late January in
its 55 year period of record. Bear Mountain also reported 75th
percentile level for late January. Gainesville in western NY was
around 67th percentile for late January. Woodgate along the western
Adirondacks was near 90th percentile for the time of year. Observing
the Saint Lawrence Valley region Brasher Falls was above its 90th
percentile level for late January and Harrisville near the 80th
percentile level. SUNY Plattsburgh in the Lake Champlain region was
reporting an 80th percentile groundwater level for late January.

In Southern New England...Groundwater levels are averaging near
normal to well above normal.

In Massachusetts...Ground water levels were mostly near to above
normal. Pittsfield was reporting near 50th percentile level for late
January. Hardwick in central Massachusetts and Plymouth in eastern
Massachusetts were reporting 75th to 90th percentile levels for late
January. Groundwater levels vary from near normal at Sandwich to the
75-90th percentile level at Truro along the Cape Cod aquifers for
early February.

In Rhode Island...Ground water levels are mostly above normal.
Burrilville in the northwest part of the state was reporting its
highest median level for late January as well as South Kingstown
and Westerly in the southern part of the state.

In Connecticut...Ground water levels are near to above normal.
Newtown was reporting a high median level for late January.
Salisbury in Litchfield county was at a near normal level for the
time of year. Mansfield in the northeastern part of the state is
running 75th to 90th percentile for late January.

In Northern New England...Groundwater levels are running near to
above normal in Vermont and New Hampshire and near normal to well
above normal in Maine.

In Vermont...Groundwater levels were near normal to above normal.
Groundwater levels were 75-90th percentile level at Chester in
Windsor County...50th percentile level in Pownal in Bennington
County and Glover in Orleans County for late January. Additional
snow water is available for recharge particularly near high terrain
areas.

In New Hampshire...Groundwater levels were generally near normal to
above normal for late January with some increase due to above normal
precipitation and additional runoff from melt. Hooksett and Warner
in southern portions of the state were reporting 75th percentile
level for late January. Gorham in the White mountain region was
reporting 25-50th percentile level as of 30 January 2023. There is
however snow water available for recharge in this region especially
near high terrain areas.

In Maine...Groundwater levels were near normal in far southern areas
to above or well above normal in the rest of the state due to above
normal precipitation and recharge from melt. There is also a near
normal to above normal amount of snow water available especially
across western and northern areas for additional recharge. Oxford
Brunswick and Sanford were reporting near normal groundwater levels
across far southern areas. Kenduskeag was within the 75th to 90th
percentile level for late January and Calais was at its highest
median level for the time of year. Clayton Lake and Fort Kent in far
northwestern areas were above 90th percentile levels for late
January. Weld in western Maine is at its highest median level for
late January.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS AND WATER SUPPLY...

Water supply reservoirs across the NERFC service area are generally
at or above normal as we start February 2023. There are currently no
known large scale deficits in New York State or New England
reservoir systems. Across northern New York State...Indian Lake is
about 2.2 feet above its normal late January pool level. Great
Sacandaga Lake just to the south is about 12.9 feet higher than
normal. Hinckley Reservoir was about 1.6 feet higher than normal as
of 30 January 2023. Stillwater Reservoir north of Hinckley is
currently 1.8 feet below its normal late January pool. Lake
Champlain is also high for late January...running 1.5 feet above its
normal level. In central New York State...Owasco Lake was close to
normal heading into early February.

Across southeastern New York State...the New York City Water Supply
System...comprised of 7 large reservoirs...was at 93.5 percent
capacity as of 01 February 2023 which was 3.8 percent above normal.
None of the 7 large reservoirs comprising this system are currently
above capacity. Neversink was close to capacity at 99.3 percent.

In northern New England...reservoir systems in the Kennebec River
Basin in Maine were 66.0 percent full as of 30 January 2023 which
was 16.6 percent above normal. The nearby Androscoggin River storage
was 69.5 percent full which was 35.6 percent above normal. New
Hampshire`s largest lake...Lake Winnipesaukee was running 0.9 foot
above normal as of 30 January 2023. In far northern Vermont...Lake
Memphremagog in Newport was 0.9 foot above its normal late January
pool level.

Across southern New England...Quabbin Reservoir...the main water
supply reservoir for the Boston Metropolitan area was at 91.4
percent of capacity and the smaller Wachusett Reservoir was at 93.4
percent of capacity as of 01 February 2023. The Quabbin Reservoir is
within the normal operating range for February. Scituate
Reservoir...the main water supply reservoir for northern Rhode
Island including the city of Providence...was at 285.14 feet as of
01 February 2023. This was 104.6 percent of capacity. Water at this
level is flowing over the spillway uncontrolled into the mainstem
Pawtuxet River.

We currently do not anticipate any large scale water supply issues
through late winter approaching early spring. In fact...reservoir
levels are so high in some places that we could use a period of
dryness developing so that reservoirs can release some excess water.

Drought continues to be less of an issue across the northeastern
United States with improvements mostly noted. The latest United
States Drought Monitor from 26 January 2023 did show moderate
drought continuing across the south shore of Long Island east of New
York City. Otherwise only a few pockets of abnormally dry conditions
remain across far southwestern Connecticut...far southeastern New
York and a portion of the Finger Lakes region.


...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

River flows across New York State are currently running near to
above normal and above normal to well above normal in New England
due to runoff from frequent precipitation and past snowmelt.

Ice coverage and thicknesses across most of the NERFC area have
increased but are currently less than normal for the start of
February due to the lack of persistent cold...runoff from
precipitation and melt with above normal streamflows.

There will be a temporary increase in river ice due to arctic air
overspreading the Northeast in the near term which may cause some
localized freeze up jam issues...mainly across northern basins where
river ice has already formed and is thickest and also along rivers
with sharp bends or near bridges or obstructions.

Most of the current significant river ice is located in northern and
western Maine...northern New Hampshire...northern Vermont
and northern New York State including the Adirondack region.
Ice thicknesses were estimated as much as 6 to 12+ inches in
portions of these areas. Ice thicknesses were generally estimated
at a few inches or less across the southern basins.

WFO Caribou Maine`s region including most of northern Maine...

The Saint John and Allagash headwaters are mostly frozen now with
remaining small leads. Ice thicknesses were estimated 6 to 12+
inches with locally thicker 2 to 5 foot chunks of ice.

The Aroostook River is mostly frozen with a few small leads. Ice
thicknesses were estimated at 4 to 8 inches with 2 to 4 foot chunks
of ice. Castle Hill/Wade through Caribou Dam is frozen.

The Piscataquis River is also mostly frozen down to the
Penobscot confluence.

The Penobscot river has some frozen sections near Grindstone
extending to the dam. Significant frazil ice was reported at Bangor
and Kenduskeag.

Downeast Maine rivers have thinner sheet and frazil ice.

WFO Gray Maine`s region including portions of western and southern
Maine and New Hampshire...

The most prevalent ice was reported in the upper Androscoggin...
upper Kennebec and along the upper Connecticut watersheds. Ice
thicknesses were averaging 6 to 9 inches with some chunks one foot
or more thick. Mainstem rivers are generally open with thin border
and frazil ice. Ice was present above dams along the Androscoggin
River above Rumford...Jay to Livermore Falls...Livermore to Lake
Auburn. River ice was present along the Connecticut River from
Dalton to the Moore Reservoir...and in bends from Fairlee to White
River Junction. River ice was also found along the Pemigewasset
River from New Hampton to Ayers Dam and the Kennebec River from
Norridgewock to Skowhegan.

The frost depth in northern Maine was averaging 1 to 7 inches...2
inches at WFO Gray Maine and 4 inches at WFO Caribou Maine.

...IN CONCLUSION...

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is slightly below normal across most of western and
central New York including the Buffalo Creeks and Finger Lakes
regions as well as the Tug Hill area.

Cold and dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow
streamflows to diminish some. Above normal average temperatures are
forecast to prevail the next two weeks. Antecedent conditions are
extremely moist but snow depths and snow water equivalents are below
normal in most of this region to produce additional significant
runoff except nearing Tug Hill. Precipitation frequency is expected
to remain above normal however no widespread significant QPF is
forecast at this time. MMEFS is currently showing no signals of
flooding over the next 10 days. If a significant QPF liquid event
materializes longer range combined with melt...some of the area
rivers especially the flashier Buffalo Creeks and perhaps even the
Black River basin may need to be monitored. However this is
currently a lower probability.

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is slightly below normal across the Adirondacks
region and the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys of New York.

Cold and dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow
area streamflows to diminish some. Above normal average temperatures
are forecast to prevail during the next two weeks although for most
of this region. Average temperatures are typically below freezing
during the first half of February. Antecedent conditions are very
moist to unusually moist but snow depths. Snow water equivalents are
not insignificant but below normal in most of the region with a cold
and somewhat deep snowpack in place. Precipitation frequency is
expected to remain above normal however no widespread significant
QPF is forecast at this time. MMEFS currently showing no signals for
flood potential over the next 10 days. If a significant QPF liquid
event combined with melt materializes longer range then some of the
area rivers may need to be monitored but this appears to be a low
probability at this time.

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is slightly below normal across southeastern New
York State including the Hudson Valley...Catskills and the New York
City Metropolitan area.

Cold and dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow
area streamflows to diminish some. Above normal average temperatures
are forecast to prevail the next two weeks. Antecedent conditions
are very moist to near normal. Snow depths and snow water
equivalents are below normal. Precipitation frequency is expected to
remain above normal...however no widespread significant QPF is
forecast at this time. MMEFS currently showing little or no signal
for flood potential over the next 10 days. If a significant QPF
liquid event occurs longer range then some of the area rivers may
need to be monitored but this appears to be a lower probability at
this time.

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is near normal in Maine and parts of New Hampshire
including the White Mountain region mainly longer term.

Snow water values have increased to near to slightly above normal.
Antecedent conditions are very moist to extremely moist and
streamflows and groundwater levels are mostly above normal. Cold and
dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow area
streamflows to diminish some.

Above normal average temperatures are forecast to prevail the next
two weeks although average temperatures are typically below freezing
in most of this region during the first half of February. The
snowpack has experienced water loading and melt along with
refreezing of the pack. Precipitation frequency is expected to
remain above normal along with some above normal precipitation.
MMEFS currently showing almost no signal for flood potential over
the next 10 days. If a significant QPF liquid event occurs longer
range then some of the area rivers may need to be monitored but the
snowpack currently is cold and deep enough to absorb additional
precipitation. Thus a near normal outlook mainly longer term.

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is below normal in portions of western and
central New England including Vermont and far western New Hampshire.

Cold and dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow
area streamflows to diminish some.

Above normal average temperatures are forecast to prevail the next
two weeks although average temperatures the first half of February
are mostly below freezing in this region. Antecedent conditions are
very moist to unusually moist. Snow depths and snow water
equivalents are below normal in most of this region. Precipitation
frequency is expected to remain above normal however no widespread
significant QPF is forecast at this time. MMEFS is currently showing
little or no signal for flood potential over the next 10 days. If a
significant QPF liquid event combined with melt can materialize
longer range then some of the area rivers may need to be monitored
but this appears to be a low probability at this time.

Based on the information available at this time...the Winter/Spring
Flood Potential is near normal across most of southern New England.

Cold and dry weather conditions remain near term. This will allow
area streamflows to diminish some. Above normal average temperatures
are forecast to prevail the next two weeks. Antecedent conditions
are still very moist to unusually moist except to near normal in
southern Connecticut. Ground water levels are mostly above normal.
Snow depths and snow water equivalents are below normal except near
normal in northwestern Massachusetts. Precipitation frequency is
expected to remain above normal however no widespread significant
QPF is forecast at this time. MMEFS is currently showing a weak
signal for action level rises in February 8-10 particularly in
northwestern Massachusetts. If a significant QPF liquid event occurs
longer range combined with melt...then some of the area rivers may
need to be monitored. This appears to be a lower probability at this
time.

The potential for flooding due to ice jams is near normal across
northern and western Maine into northern New Hampshire...northern
Vermont and northern New York State including the Adirondacks. Some
increase in ice cover and thicknesses expected near to short term.
Streamflows are near to well above normal. The main threat may be
freeze up jams in this area with possible backwater effects.

The potential for flooding due to ice jams is generally below normal
across western and central New York...interior eastern New
York...southern Vermont...southern New Hampshire...coastal Maine and
interior southern New England.
Some increase in ice cover and thicknesses is expected near term.
Streamflows are near normal to above normal. Ice thicknesses are
currently not significant enough in most areas to cause any flooding
issues at this time but an isolated ice jam could occur due to
freeze up or perhaps breakup potential.

The potential for flooding due to ice jams is below normal across
the remainder of far southeastern New York State and most of
southern New England. River ice is limited in coverage and thickness
at this time due to the lack of persistent cold. Some river ice
buildup is expected in the near term but it is unlikely to be enough
to cause a flood threat at this time.

It is important to remember that very heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year...even in areas that have little or no
snow on the ground.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NERFC service
area is available on the NERFC web site at

*** www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential ***

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by the
NERFC on Thursday 16 February 2023.

End/Strauss
$$

Local NWS Office Flood Outlook Discussions:
(check the date near the top of each product to ensure it is current!)

    Albany, NY  

    Binghamton, NY  

    Brookhaven, NY  

    Buffalo, NY  

    Burlington, VT   

    Caribou, ME  

    Gray, ME   

    Norton, MA 

NERFC Snow Page

Precip Departures from Normal

Cold Season Self Briefing Page

To view long-range probabilistic guidance at our river forecast locations, use the following directions:

  1. Visit our main page at https://www.weather.gov/nerfc
  2. Click on the circle icon for the river forecast point you wish to view.
  3. On the next page, hover over the tab near the top labeled Probability Information
  4. There are three options shown.
    1. The first, Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels, gives a week-by-week probability of exceeding certain values over the next 90 days.
    2. The second, Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period, combines these into a single graphic over the 90 day period.  The easiest way to read this second graphic:  if the black line is above the blue line, the probability of reaching a given stage/flow is higher than normal for the time period.  You can also follow the black line to a given value to see the probability of that value occurring.

Note:  All our probabilities are based on natural flow, without any ice effects.  Ice effects may cause flooding even when natural flow is limited.