NERFC Water Story

Ice Jams & River Rises Due to Snowmelt & Precip

Action Level to Minor Flood Due to Snowmelt&Precip

March 3, 2026 HAB Outlook

A breakup ice jam was observed at the East Branch Ausable River at Au Sable Forks in NY. The combination of mild temperatures, precipitation & snowmelt will increase this risk through the week. Some rivers are also forecast to Action Level to Minor Flooding due to snowmelt/precipitation.

A frontal system will bring us our next opportunity for widespread precipitation mid to late in the week. For most this will be rain, but northern areas could see a wintry mix/snow. Small streams & river flooding, along with break up ice jams, are possible through the week

Active pattern through this week, but mainly just anticipating increases to the snowpack. Streamflow's are below normal, with potential to increase next week as temperatures increase. Small craft criteria along with E-NE flow are likely from Thursday into Friday, but otherwise, opportunities for higher winds and E-NE flows will be limited.