Local Studies & Presentations:

                          A 3D view of the reflection of a rear inflow jet descending into a storm forcing it to bow out at the ground, using GRAnalyst Software, on March 8, 2009 in Southeast Missouri. This storm produced a tornado that crossed from Bollinger into Cape Girardeau counties.

Part of what we do includes research of old cases to learn how to do better in the future. Our goal is to improve the knowledge and confidence of the forecasters to help them issue timely, accurate warnings.

Local Studies and Presentations (WFO PAH Personnel were authors or co-authors) **Some of these are available. If you want copies of these, please e-mail us**    *Under Construction*

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• 1990s
  • A detailed meteorological overview of the May 17, 1999 derecho
  • A detailed meteorological overview of the May 5, 1996 derecho
  • Observations of the 17 June 1997 Tornadoes
  • Observations of Flow Structure and Mesoscale Circulations Associated with the 5 May 1996 Asymmetric Derecho in the Lower Ohio Valley
• 2004
  • ​The 4 May 2003 Tri-State Supercells
• 2005
  • ​Observations of Cool Season QLCS Tornadoes in the Lower Ohio River Vallley (NWA Poster)
  • Spreading the News: A Warning Dissemination Example (Southeast Severe Storms Symposium)
• 2006​
  • The Evansville Area Tornado - Presented at the 10th Annunal Severe Storms Conference - Des Moines, IA (2006)
  • A Radar Perspective of the Early Morning 6 November 2005 Tornadoes: Challenges to Operational Procedures and Training - Presented at the AMS Severe Local Storms Conference - St. Louis, MO (2006)
  • The Evansville, IN Tornado: A look into the environment (Poster) - Presented at the NWA Conference (2006)
  • Analysis of the Tornado Damage Track from the 06 November Evansville, Indiana Tornado: Observations and Perspectives - Presented at the AMS Severe Local Storms Conference - St. Louis, MO (2006)
  • Case Study of the 12 September 2006 Evansville, Indiana Flash Flood Event - Presented at the NWA Conference (2006)
• 2007
  • ​Sampling Issues Associated with the Evansville Tornado and Other Nearby Supercells on the Early Morning of 6 November 2005: Challenges to Operational Forecasters (AMS)
• 2008​
  • Customer Service Workshops: Getting to Know Your Users - Presented at the NWA Conference - Louisville, KY (2008)
  • Weather Education: The Flood. Increasing Active Participation in the Classroom (Poster) (pptx format) - Presented at the NWA Conference - Louisville, KY (2008)
  • The 13 January 2005 Pulaski County Illinois Tornado (Poster) - Presented at the NWA Conference - Louisville, KY (2008)
  • Case Study of the 12 September 2006 Evansville, Indiana Flash Flood Event (NWA)
• 2009​
  • Wind Damage in the Lower Ohio Valley from the Remnants of Hurricane Ike - Presented at the Inland Impacts of Tropical Cyclones Conference - Atlanta, GA (2009) & Kentucky Public Services Commission 2010
  • Are You Really Prepared:A Real Life Assessment of the Ohio Valley Ice Storm 2009 - Presented at the NWA Conference - Norfolk, VA (2009)
  • The Lower Ohio Valley Ice Storm of January 2009 (Poster) - Presented at the NWA Conference - Norfolk, VA (2009)
  • The Meteorology and Impact of the 11 February 2009 Wind Storm in the Lower Ohio Valley (Poster) - Presented at the NWA Conference - Norfolk, VA (2009)
• 2010
  • ​Are You Really Prepared:A Real Life Assessment of the Ohio Valley Ice Storm:2009 - A Year Later - Presented at the National Severe Storms Workshop - Norman, OK (2010)
• 2011​
  • A Look at the Causes of Four Underforecast Heavy Snow Events in the Lower Ohio Valley in the Winter of 2010-11(Poster) - Presented at the NWA Conference - Birmingham, AL (2011)
  • The Record Flood of 2011 in the Lower Ohio Valley - Presented at the NWA Conference - Birmingham, AL (2011)
• 2012
  • ​Operational Uses of Spectrum Width - Published in Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology (2012)
• 2013​
  • Observations of the Harrisburg, IL Tornado of 29 February 2012 - Poster at NWA Conference - Charleston, SC (2013)
  • A High-shear/Low CAPE QLCS Tornado Playbook: Addressing the Need to Improve Tornado Warnings - Poster at NWA Conference - Charleson, SC (2013)
• 2014
  • ​An Examination of High-Shear/Low CAPE QLCS Events in the Lower Ohio Valley: Environments and Vr Shear Details Presentation at NWA Conference - Salt Lake City, UT (2014)
• 2015
  • ​The 1925 Tri-State Tornado: What if it Happened Today (NWA)
  • The Halloween 2013 Squall Line and Tornado Debris Signatures (KenTenn Workshop)
• 2016
  • Forecasting: From Daily to Seasonal - DEWS Kick-off Meeting - St. Louis
  • ​Midwest DEWS: Drought Early Warning Information System - Updates and Future Plans (NWA)
• 2017
  • Record Temperatures: Trends at Several Locations across the Central and Eastern United States (NWA)
  • IDSS Utility of ARDT-IVT (Automated Atmospheric River Detection) and the Heavy Rainfall Events of December 2015 (NWA)
  • WAVE: Weather Archive and Visualizatoin Environment. A Current Assessment and Future Path (NWA)
  • ​Storm Spotting Safety (KenTenn Workshop)
• 2018
  • ​​Response Time of Road Pavement Temperatures During Liquid to Frozen Precipitation Events (NWA)
  • The 28 June 2018 Derecho (KenTenn Workshop)
• 2019
  • Analyzing the Abrupt Pattern Change Observed from April to May 2018 (NWA - Huntsville)
  • Observations of the Mississippi River MCS of 28 June 2018 (NWA- Huntsville)
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  • Examples of How GOES-E is Improving Lightning Detection (KenTenn Workshop - Bowling Green)

• High Shear Low CAPE QLCS Tornado Study (local)

Tornado Warning Statistics

Click on image to enlarge.

The table below shows the number of Tornado Warnings issued over our 58 county forecast area during each month from January 1995 - May 28, 2025 At the bottom there are statistics for each month (monthly average over that 25 year period, total sum for that month, maximum and minimum observed for that month)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statistics

Click on image to enlarge.

The table below shows the number of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued over our 58 county forecast area during each month from January 1995 - May 29, 2025. At the bottom there are statistics for each month (monthly average over that 25 year period, total sum for that month, maximum and minimum observed for that month)

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Flash Flood Warning Statistics

Click on image to enlarge.

The table below shows the number of Flash Flood Warnings issued over our 58 county forecast area during each month from January 1995 - May 28, 2025. At the bottom there are statistics for each month (monthly average over that 25 year period, total sum for that month, maximum and minimum observed for that month)

All Severe Weather Warning Statistics Combined

Observed Tornadoes

For those who have lived in this area for a while, this is nothing new. However, if you are new to the area it may come as a surprise that severe weather is so common. It is not unusual to have severe weather at any time of the year. Below are graphics that depicts when tornadoes have occurred in our county warning area by year and by month.

Click here to go to our Event Summaries webpage, which contains information on most of the significant weather events in our area.

Click here for additional severe weather climatology, which includes tornado tracks for all tornadoes observed from 1950-August 2018.

Click here for hail climatology in our area.

Additional Information

Local and regional studies are on-going concerning the severe weather in the southeast U.S. At the forecast office in Paducah, we have been studying cool season tornadoes for several years. We consider the cool season to be during the months of November, December, January & February.

For the general public we suggest that keeping an eye on the weather can give you hints as to when tornadoes are possible. If is it warm and humid outside and it is unusual for that time of year...be aware that severe weather may be possible in the next day or two.

To back this statement up, we have been looking at dew point temperatures in Paducah and comparing that with severe weather within our county warning area. The dew point is a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. During the winter, it may "feel humid" when the dew point temperature reaches 60 degrees. During the summer, we commonly experience dew points in the 70s, but during the winter, when it is generally cool, the days with 60 degree dew points tend to stand out. Our studies suggest that the chances of severe weather increase dramatically when the dew point temperature is in the 58 - 64 degree range in the cool months. Click here for dew point climatology for Paducah.

This is our county warning area