The latest Spring Flood Outlook from NOAA / NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center:

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER SACRAMENTO CA

8:32 AM PST MON MAR 2 2026



LOW FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SPRING SNOWMELT ACROSS CALIFORNIA


The potential for flooding due to spring snowmelt in the California
Nevada River Forecast Centers domain is very low given that the
state-average snowpack is below normal. With warm and dry
conditions expected over the first half of March, snowmelt will
continue at an above normal rate; however, flooding due to snowmelt
is very low.

Note that flooding in California could also result from heavy
rainfall alone, or combined with snowmelt anytime during the spring.


CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS


SNOWPACK


The snowpack in the Northern Sierra & Trinity regions are currently
well below normal for this time of year, sitting at 45% of average.
The Central Sierra is slightly better, but still much below normal
at 67% of average. The Southern Sierra is only slightly below
normal sitting at 90% of average. Statewide, snowpack is 66% of
normal. These percentages are expected to decrease in the weeks
ahead given the forecasted warm and dry conditions for the next few
weeks.

PRECIPITATION


Unlike the snowpack, precipitation totals for the current water year
are near normal for most of California from the Northern Sierra down
through most of the Southern Sierra. The Tulare is slightly above
normal and the Klamath is slightly below normal. Many of the
storms were warmer than average this year resulting in a
disproportionate amount of precipitation falling in the form of rain
compared to snow. This is the reason why total precipitation is
near normal, but snowpack is below normal.


SEASONAL (APRIL-JULY) RUNOFF FORECASTS


The seasonal runoff projections follow similar trends to the
snowpack The seasonal runoff forecasts for the northern areas,
including the Klamath and Upper Sacramento, are forecasted to be
below normal ranging from 60-80% of average. The Northern and
Central Sierra covering the Feather down through the Merced are
projected to be much below normal ranging from 50-65% of normal.
The Southern Sierra is expected to fair the best with seasonal
runoff projections ranging from 75-85% of normal.


FLOOD EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES


Flood potential due to pure snowmelt is very low this spring
throughout CA. Currently, the vast majority of forecast locations
have less than a 10% chance of flooding through the March-May
period. The one exception is The west fork of the Carson River
where there is a 14% chance of exceeding minor flood stage during
the spring. It is important to note that potential for large
springtime rainfall events resulting in river flooding is still
present and should be monitored throughout the spring.

Consult the NWPS long range flood risk map for the latest point
exceedance probabilities.

SUMMARY


Risk of California flooding due to pure snowmelt is very low given
the below normal snowpack conditions. Refer to the long range
outlook product for flood exceedance probabilities at particular
locations for the March throughMay period. Flooding due to rainfall
is still a risk for much of the spring season.


Consult the CNRFC homepage for near-term flood threats:
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/.