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Sacramento County Decision Support Briefing Page

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Heat Risk — Day 1

Heat Risk Day 1 graphic

Viewing Heat Risk for Day 1. Click the image or “Open full size” to open the graphic in a separate window.

*Note: HeatRisk Probabilities are experimental and may be unavailable at times.

City Point Forecast

Choose one city or station at a time. The data and calculations are unchanged; this only changes how the table is displayed.

Downtown Sac SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
77% 21% 97% 99% 99% 98% 95%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 28% <10% 14% 27%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-81° 73-78° 83-88° 86-96° 86-92° 84-92° 85-94°
High Temp
Forecast
79° 75° 85° 90° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
56-59° 56-58° 52-55° 56-60° 57-63° 58-63° 56-63°
Low Temp
Forecast
57° 57° 54° 58° 60° 60° 59°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
13-17 mph 14-18 mph 14-17 mph 12-18 mph 10-15 mph 12-16 mph 10-16 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
15 mph 16 mph 15 mph 15 mph 12 mph 14 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Elk Grove SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
83% 27% 98% 99% 99% 99% 97%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 30% 14% 14% 28%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-81° 73-78° 82-87° 85-95° 86-92° 84-92° 84-94°
High Temp
Forecast
80° 75° 84° 90° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
52-55° 52-54° 48-52° 52-56° 53-59° 54-60° 52-59°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 53° 50° 54° 56° 56° 55°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
16-19 mph 17-20 mph 17-21 mph 13-20 mph 12-17 mph 13-17 mph 13-18 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
17 mph 18 mph 19 mph 16 mph 14 mph 15 mph 16 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Folsom SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
85% 21% 96% 99% 99% 98% 96%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 27% 16% 17% 36%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-82° 73-78° 81-87° 85-95° 87-92° 85-92° 85-94°
High Temp
Forecast
80° 75° 83° 89° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
55-58° 55-57° 50-53° 55-58° 57-62° 57-61° 56-61°
Low Temp
Forecast
56° 55° 51° 56° 59° 59° 58°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
12-14 mph 12-14 mph 13-18 mph 11-17 mph 11-13 mph 11-13 mph 11-14 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
13 mph 13 mph 15 mph 14 mph 12 mph 12 mph 13 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Galt SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
88% 28% 96% 99% 99% 99% 97%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 25% 12% 14% 28%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
80-82° 74-79° 82-86° 85-95° 87-92° 84-92° 84-93°
High Temp
Forecast
81° 76° 83° 89° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
52-55° 52-55° 49-52° 52-56° 54-60° 54-60° 53-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 53° 50° 54° 57° 57° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
17-20 mph 17-20 mph 19-21 mph 14-20 mph 13-17 mph 14-17 mph 13-19 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
18 mph 18 mph 19 mph 17 mph 15 mph 15 mph 16 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Mather SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
88% 30% 98% 99% 100% 99% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 27% 12% 11% 25%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-82° 73-78° 82-88° 86-96° 87-92° 85-92° 85-94°
High Temp
Forecast
80° 75° 84° 90° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
53-56° 53-55° 49-52° 53-57° 55-60° 55-60° 54-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
54° 54° 50° 54° 57° 57° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
13-16 mph 13-17 mph 14-18 mph 12-18 mph 11-15 mph 12-15 mph 11-16 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
14 mph 15 mph 16 mph 15 mph 13 mph 13 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
McClellan SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
80% 23% 97% 99% 99% 99% 96%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 31% 15% 14% 30%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-82° 73-78° 83-89° 86-96° 87-92° 85-92° 86-94°
High Temp
Forecast
80° 75° 85° 90° 88° 87° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
56-59° 56-58° 52-55° 56-60° 57-63° 58-63° 56-63°
Low Temp
Forecast
57° 57° 53° 57° 60° 60° 59°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
13-16 mph 13-17 mph 13-17 mph 11-18 mph 10-14 mph 11-15 mph 10-15 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
13 mph 15 mph 15 mph 14 mph 12 mph 13 mph 13 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Rancho Murieta SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
93% 41% 98% 100% 100% 99% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 25% 17% 14% 33%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
80-83° 74-79° 82-87° 86-95° 88-92° 86-93° 85-95°
High Temp
Forecast
81° 76° 84° 89° 89° 88° 89°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
54-57° 53-55° 49-52° 54-57° 56-61° 56-61° 55-61°
Low Temp
Forecast
55° 54° 50° 55° 58° 58° 57°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
12-15 mph 13-15 mph 15-19 mph 12-17 mph 11-14 mph 12-14 mph 12-15 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
14 mph 14 mph 16 mph 15 mph 13 mph 13 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Sac Exec SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
79% 25% 98% 99% 99% 99% 96%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 33% 13% 12% 25%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-81° 73-78° 83-88° 86-95° 86-92° 84-92° 84-94°
High Temp
Forecast
79° 75° 85° 90° 88° 86° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
54-57° 54-57° 51-54° 55-59° 55-61° 56-61° 54-61°
Low Temp
Forecast
55° 55° 52° 56° 58° 58° 57°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 4% 0% 4% 0% 0% 9%
Wind Gust
Range
16-20 mph 17-22 mph 16-21 mph 13-21 mph 11-19 mph 13-19 mph 11-19 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
17 mph 19 mph 18 mph 17 mph 15 mph 16 mph 16 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Sac International SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
45% <10% 96% 99% 99% 97% 95%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 24% <10% <10% 21%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
77-80° 73-77° 83-87° 86-95° 85-91° 84-91° 83-93°
High Temp
Forecast
78° 74° 84° 90° 87° 86° 87°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
52-56° 53-55° 50-52° 54-57° 54-60° 55-59° 53-59°
Low Temp
Forecast
54° 54° 51° 55° 57° 56° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
Wind Gust
Range
13-17 mph 14-19 mph 13-17 mph 12-20 mph 11-16 mph 12-17 mph 11-18 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
14 mph 16 mph 15 mph 16 mph 13 mph 14 mph 15 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Walnut Grove SaturdaySep. 26 SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
83% 28% 98% 100% 99% 99% 96%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% <10% 28% 22% 14% 28%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
79-81° 73-77° 82-86° 86-95° 86-93° 84-92° 84-94°
High Temp
Forecast
79° 75° 83° 90° 88° 86° 88°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
52-55° 53-55° 50-52° 53-57° 54-60° 54-59° 53-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 53° 50° 54° 56° 56° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
4% 9% 17% 9% 4% 0% 9%
Wind Gust
Range
19-23 mph 19-24 mph 21-25 mph 17-23 mph 15-21 mph 17-21 mph 16-22 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
21 mph 21 mph 23 mph 20 mph 18 mph 19 mph 19 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"

Legend

HeatRisk

Low Minor Moderate Major Extreme

High Temperature

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Low Temperature / Warm Nights

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Snow

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Wind

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Rain

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Updated: 09/26 03:34 AM

Source: NBM (09/26/2026 01z)

Sacramento County Point Summaries

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User Defined Threshold Probabilities

Calculates real-time exceedance probability (%) across all NBM distribution curves using your custom thresholds.

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Emergency Management Threshold Highlights

High Temp ≥ °F
Low Temp ≤ °F
Wind Gust ≥ mph
24-Hr Rain ≥ in
6-Hr Rain ≥ in