National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Sacramento County Decision Support Briefing Page

Note: Images generally update twice a day around 2:30 AM PST and 2:30 PM PST. This website is experimental and not maintained 24/7. Maintained by the National Weather Service Sacramento forecast office.

Current Hazards: Loading active alerts for Sacramento County...

Heat Risk — Day 1

Heat Risk Day 1 graphic

Viewing Heat Risk for Day 1. Click the image or “Open full size” to open the graphic in a separate window.

*Note: HeatRisk Probabilities are experimental and may be unavailable at times.

City Point Forecast

Choose one city or station at a time. The data and calculations are unchanged; this only changes how the table is displayed.

Downtown Sac SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
34% 99% 100% 99% 99% 93% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 36% <10% 25% 25% 37%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
75-79° 83-87° 90-96° 88-93° 87-93° 85-94° 89-95°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 92° 90° 89° 88° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
57-59° 52-55° 54-60° 57-63° 60-63° 57-63° 57-64°
Low Temp
Forecast
57° 53° 57° 59° 60° 60° 59°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
16-19 mph 14-17 mph 13-19 mph 9-13 mph 10-15 mph 11-16 mph 10-14 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
17 mph 16 mph 15 mph 11 mph 12 mph 13 mph 13 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Elk Grove SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Moderate
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
49% 99% 100% 99% 99% 93% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 34% 32% 29% 32% 37%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
76-79° 82-87° 89-95° 88-93° 87-94° 86-93° 89-94°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 91° 90° 89° 88° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
53-55° 48-51° 50-56° 53-59° 56-60° 54-59° 53-59°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 49° 52° 55° 57° 56° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
18-21 mph 17-21 mph 14-20 mph 11-15 mph 12-16 mph 13-18 mph 11-15 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
19 mph 19 mph 17 mph 13 mph 14 mph 15 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Folsom SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Minor Moderate Minor Minor Minor Moderate
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
26% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 34% 29% 42% 36% 50%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
75-78° 82-86° 89-95° 90-93° 89-94° 86-95° 90-95°
High Temp
Forecast
76° 83° 91° 91° 90° 89° 92°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
55-57° 50-53° 54-58° 57-61° 59-62° 59-63° 56-63°
Low Temp
Forecast
56° 51° 55° 59° 60° 60° 59°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
12-15 mph 15-18 mph 12-18 mph 10-13 mph 11-13 mph 11-14 mph 10-13 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
13 mph 16 mph 15 mph 11 mph 12 mph 12 mph 12 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Galt SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
47% 97% 100% 100% 98% 96% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 28% 24% 26% 30% 39%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
76-79° 82-86° 88-94° 89-93° 88-94° 86-93° 89-94°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 91° 90° 89° 88° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
53-55° 48-51° 50-56° 53-60° 56-61° 54-60° 53-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 49° 52° 56° 57° 57° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
17-20 mph 18-22 mph 15-20 mph 12-15 mph 12-17 mph 13-18 mph 12-16 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
18 mph 20 mph 17 mph 13 mph 15 mph 15 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Mather SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
48% 99% 100% 99% 100% 97% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 28% 24% 28% 32% 36%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
75-79° 83-87° 90-95° 89-93° 88-94° 86-95° 90-95°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 92° 91° 90° 89° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
54-55° 49-51° 51-56° 54-60° 57-60° 55-60° 54-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
54° 49° 53° 56° 58° 57° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
14-17 mph 15-18 mph 13-18 mph 11-13 mph 11-14 mph 11-15 mph 11-13 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
15 mph 16 mph 15 mph 11 mph 12 mph 13 mph 13 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
McClellan SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Minor Moderate Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
42% 99% 100% 99% 100% 94% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 41% 22% 28% 31% 41%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
76-79° 83-87° 90-96° 89-93° 88-94° 85-94° 90-95°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 85° 92° 90° 90° 89° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
56-58° 51-54° 53-60° 57-63° 60-64° 57-64° 56-63°
Low Temp
Forecast
57° 52° 56° 59° 60° 60° 59°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
15-18 mph 14-17 mph 12-18 mph 9-12 mph 10-14 mph 11-15 mph 9-13 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
16 mph 15 mph 15 mph 11 mph 12 mph 13 mph 12 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Rancho Murieta SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
51% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 27% 32% 38% 37% 48%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
75-79° 82-86° 89-94° 90-93° 90-95° 86-95° 90-96°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 91° 91° 91° 90° 92°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
54-56° 49-52° 52-57° 56-60° 58-61° 57-61° 55-62°
Low Temp
Forecast
54° 49° 54° 58° 59° 59° 58°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wind Gust
Range
13-16 mph 15-19 mph 13-18 mph 11-13 mph 11-14 mph 12-15 mph 11-13 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
14 mph 17 mph 15 mph 12 mph 12 mph 13 mph 13 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Sac Exec SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Moderate
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
48% 99% 100% 99% 98% 93% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 37% 24% 20% 21% 35%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
76-79° 83-87° 90-96° 88-93° 87-93° 85-93° 89-94°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 92° 90° 89° 88° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
55-57° 51-53° 53-59° 55-62° 58-62° 56-61° 55-62°
Low Temp
Forecast
56° 51° 55° 58° 59° 58° 58°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
4% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
19-23 mph 16-20 mph 15-22 mph 10-15 mph 11-17 mph 12-19 mph 11-16 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
20 mph 17 mph 18 mph 13 mph 14 mph 15 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Sac International SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Low Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
10% 98% 100% 99% 97% 92% 98%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 24% <10% 11% 14% 26%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
75-79° 82-86° 89-95° 88-92° 87-92° 84-93° 88-94°
High Temp
Forecast
76° 84° 91° 89° 88° 87° 90°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
54-55° 49-52° 51-57° 53-60° 57-60° 54-60° 53-60°
Low Temp
Forecast
54° 49° 54° 56° 57° 57° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
15-20 mph 14-17 mph 14-20 mph 9-12 mph 11-15 mph 11-17 mph 11-15 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
17 mph 16 mph 17 mph 11 mph 13 mph 14 mph 14 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"
Walnut Grove SundaySep. 27 MondaySep. 28 TuesdaySep. 29 WednesdaySep. 30 ThursdayOct. 01 FridayOct. 02 SaturdayOct. 03
HeatRisk
Forecast
Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Moderate
HeatRisk
Prob Minor+
55% 99% 100% 100% 97% 94% 100%
HeatRisk
Prob Moderate+
<10% <10% 38% 40% 22% 31% 44%
HeatRisk
Prob Major+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
HeatRisk
Prob Extreme+
<10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10%
High Temp
Prob 105°
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Temp
Range
76-79° 82-86° 89-95° 89-93° 87-94° 85-93° 88-94°
High Temp
Forecast
77° 84° 91° 90° 89° 88° 91°
Low Temp
Prob 75°
or Higher
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Low Temp
Range
53-54° 49-51° 51-56° 53-59° 55-60° 54-59° 52-59°
Low Temp
Forecast
53° 49° 53° 55° 57° 56° 56°
Wind Gust
Prob 25 mph
13% 17% 9% 0% 0% 4% 4%
Wind Gust
Range
20-25 mph 21-25 mph 19-24 mph 14-20 mph 15-21 mph 16-22 mph 14-21 mph
Wind Gust
Forecast
22 mph 23 mph 21 mph 17 mph 18 mph 19 mph 18 mph
Rain
Prob 0.25"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 0.5"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Prob 1.0"
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rain
Range
0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00" 0.00"
Rain
Forecast
0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0"

Legend

HeatRisk

Low Minor Moderate Major Extreme

High Temperature

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Low Temperature / Warm Nights

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Snow

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Wind

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Rain

< <10% 10-39% 40-69% >70%

Updated: 09/27 03:34 AM

Source: NBM (09/27/2026 01z)

Sacramento County Point Summaries

Loading live point data across all Sacramento County locations...

User Defined Threshold Probabilities

Calculates real-time exceedance probability (%) across all NBM distribution curves using your custom thresholds.

Loading interactive probability matrix...

Emergency Management Threshold Highlights

High Temp ≥ °F
Low Temp ≤ °F
Wind Gust ≥ mph
24-Hr Rain ≥ in
6-Hr Rain ≥ in