Note: Images generally update twice a day around 2:30 AM PST and 2:30 PM PST. This website is experimental and not maintained 24/7. Maintained by the National Weather Service Sacramento forecast office.
Viewing Heat Risk for Day 1. Click the image or “Open full size” to open the graphic in a separate window.
*Note: HeatRisk Probabilities are experimental and may be unavailable at times.
Choose one city or station at a time. The data and calculations are unchanged; this only changes how the table is displayed.
| Groveland Big Oak | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Minor | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 27% | 78% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
74-77° | 67-70° | 59-63° | 64-68° | 70-72° | 74-78° | 79-83° |
| High Temp Forecast |
75° | 68° | 60° | 66° | 71° | 75° | 80° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 53-57° | 48-54° | 44-50° | 48-51° | 52-54° | 54-58° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 54° | 50° | 46° | 49° | 52° | 55° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
32% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
18-26 mph | 8-25 mph | 11-21 mph | 12-16 mph | 9-14 mph | 10-18 mph | 10-15 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
24 mph | 23 mph | 19 mph | 14 mph | 12 mph | 16 mph | 12 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00-0.02" | 0.00-0.04" | 0.00-0.12" | 0.00-0.01" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.02" | 0.04" | 0.07" | 0.01" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Keystone | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Minor | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
85% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 65% | 91% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
79-81° | 72-75° | 67-71° | 71-76° | 75-78° | 79-83° | 82-87° |
| High Temp Forecast |
80° | 73° | 69° | 73° | 76° | 80° | 84° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 49-52° | 50-53° | 45-50° | 47-50° | 49-51° | 51-55° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 50° | 51° | 47° | 48° | 50° | 53° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
0% | 16% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
14-20 mph | 12-25 mph | 15-25 mph | 14-18 mph | 9-14 mph | 9-11 mph | 9-12 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
18 mph | 22 mph | 23 mph | 16 mph | 11 mph | 10 mph | 10 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00-0.05" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.0" | 0.0" | 0.05" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Moccasin | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Minor | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 33% | 58% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
68-70° | 61-67° | 54-60° | 65-68° | 69-73° | 71-77° | 71-81° |
| High Temp Forecast |
69° | 63° | 56° | 66° | 71° | 73° | 76° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 11% | 16% | 68% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 42% | 53% | 100% | 89% | 32% | 26% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 34-40° | 34-39° | 28-33° | 33-36° | 36-40° | 38-43° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 37° | 36° | 30° | 34° | 38° | 39° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
79% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 53% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
26-36 mph | 13-28 mph | 10-19 mph | 9-17 mph | 15-29 mph | 21-30 mph | 16-21 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
32 mph | 21 mph | 14 mph | 12 mph | 29 mph | 30 mph | 20 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00-0.1" | 0.00-0.06" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.0" | 0.0" | 0.09" | 0.01" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Pinecrest | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 54% | 80% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
66-68° | 61-64° | 47-53° | 58-64° | 66-70° | 71-79° | 74-79° |
| High Temp Forecast |
67° | 62° | 50° | 60° | 67° | 74° | 76° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 47% | 95% | 53% | 5% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 5% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 42% | 21% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 39-43° | 30-35° | 25-30° | 30-34° | 35-40° | 38-44° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 41° | 32° | 27° | 32° | 37° | 40° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
16% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
20-25 mph | 19-24 mph | 8-11 mph | 12-17 mph | 18-23 mph | 8-23 mph | 11-19 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
23 mph | 22 mph | 9 mph | 17 mph | 23 mph | 22 mph | 15 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 16% | 42% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 11% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00-0.02" | 0.00-0.15" | 0.1-0.6" | 0.00-0.39" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.02" | 0.15" | 0.32" | 0.2" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Sonora | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Minor | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
76% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 66% | 89% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
76-77° | 68-71° | 62-66° | 67-71° | 72-74° | 75-79° | 80-84° |
| High Temp Forecast |
76° | 69° | 64° | 69° | 72° | 77° | 81° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 50-54° | 48-53° | 43-49° | 46-50° | 50-52° | 52-57° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 52° | 50° | 45° | 47° | 50° | 54° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
18-23 mph | 9-21 mph | 10-19 mph | 13-16 mph | 9-12 mph | 7-15 mph | 9-11 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
21 mph | 18 mph | 17 mph | 15 mph | 11 mph | 11 mph | 10 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00" | 0.00-0.01" | 0.00-0.06" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.0" | 0.01" | 0.06" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Sonora Pass | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
48-49° | 45-47° | 31-37° | 37-43° | 46-50° | 49-53° | 51-60° |
| High Temp Forecast |
49° | 46° | 33° | 40° | 47° | 50° | 54° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 84% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 32-36° | 25-29° | 21-24° | 24-27° | 28-31° | 29-34° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 34° | 27° | 21° | 25° | 29° | 31° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
100% | 89% | 0% | 16% | 32% | 32% | 26% |
| Wind Gust Range |
38-44 mph | 30-40 mph | 11-16 mph | 14-23 mph | 18-28 mph | 20-30 mph | 17-26 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
42 mph | 38 mph | 12 mph | 16 mph | 23 mph | 23 mph | 20 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 32% | 63% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 26% | 53% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 16% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00-0.04" | 0.00-0.6" | 0.14-1.0" | 0.11-0.78" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.04" | 0.23" | 0.56" | 0.49" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Tioga Pass | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
49-50° | 43-47° | 30-37° | 36-43° | 45-49° | 48-51° | 50-57° |
| High Temp Forecast |
50° | 45° | 33° | 39° | 46° | 49° | 52° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 58% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 74% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 31-34° | 23-27° | 19-23° | 22-25° | 27-30° | 29-33° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 32° | 24° | 20° | 23° | 28° | 30° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
95% | 68% | 5% | 0% | 16% | 21% | 11% |
| Wind Gust Range |
30-37 mph | 25-36 mph | 11-21 mph | 11-18 mph | 13-23 mph | 14-26 mph | 11-22 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
33 mph | 30 mph | 14 mph | 13 mph | 17 mph | 18 mph | 15 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
5% | 32% | 68% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 26% | 37% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00-0.07" | 0.00-0.66" | 0.13-0.94" | 0.09-0.89" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.07" | 0.31" | 0.51" | 0.47" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
| Twain Harte | SaturdayOct. 10 | SundayOct. 11 | MondayOct. 12 | TuesdayOct. 13 | WednesdayOct. 14 | ThursdayOct. 15 | FridayOct. 16 |
| HeatRisk Forecast |
Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minor |
| HeatRisk Prob Minor+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | 38% | 79% |
| HeatRisk Prob Moderate+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Major+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| HeatRisk Prob Extreme+ |
<10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% | <10% |
| High Temp Prob 100° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Prob 105° |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High Temp Range |
72-74° | 65-68° | 56-60° | 62-66° | 68-70° | 72-77° | 77-81° |
| High Temp Forecast |
73° | 66° | 57° | 64° | 69° | 74° | 78° |
| Low Temp Prob 32° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Prob 37° or Lower |
--% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Low Temp Range |
--° | 50-55° | 45-50° | 40-46° | 46-48° | 49-52° | 52-57° |
| Low Temp Forecast |
--° | 52° | 47° | 43° | 47° | 50° | 54° |
| Wind Gust Prob 25 mph |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wind Gust Range |
18-23 mph | 16-21 mph | 9-14 mph | 10-13 mph | 8-12 mph | 10-15 mph | 5-13 mph |
| Wind Gust Forecast |
21 mph | 19 mph | 10 mph | 11 mph | 11 mph | 13 mph | 11 mph |
| Rain Prob 0.25" |
0% | 5% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 0.5" |
0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Prob 1.0" |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rain Range |
0.00-0.02" | 0.00-0.05" | 0.00-0.26" | 0.00-0.04" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" |
| Rain Forecast |
0.02" | 0.03" | 0.11" | 0.03" | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" |
Legend
HeatRisk
| Low | Minor | Moderate | Major | Extreme |
High Temperature
| < | <10% | 10-39% | 40-69% | >70% |
Low Temperature / Cold
| < | <10% | 10-39% | 40-69% | >70% |
Snow
| < | <10% | 10-39% | 40-69% | >70% |
Wind
| < | <10% | 10-39% | 40-69% | >70% |
Rain
| < | <10% | 10-39% | 40-69% | >70% |
Updated: 10/10 03:35 PM
Source: NBM (10/10/2026 13z)
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Calculates real-time exceedance probability (%) across all NBM distribution curves using your custom thresholds.
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