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000 FLUS44 KTSA 192157 HWOTSA Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 457 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 457 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Limited. AREA...Southeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Late Tonight. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the early evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later tonight across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas as moisture from the remains of Imelda lift north. Periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible late tonight. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Shower will become likely with continued scattered thunderstorms Friday as the remnant area of low pressure moves through the region. Heavy rainfall will remain possible as 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are forecast across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas through Friday night. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast Saturday through the first part of next week in response to a series of upper level disturbances moving through the Plains while a surface frontal boundary stalls near the region. The greater precipitation chances for this time frame look to be across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts will be possible Saturday through Monday. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$

#county|cities|zone|fips| ALL|Tulsa and Fort Smith|ALL|ALL| OSAGE|Pawhuska,Hominy,Fairfax and Barnsdall|OKZ054|OKC113| WASHINGTON_OK|Bartlesville,Copan and Ramona|OKZ055|OKC147| NOWATA|South Coffeyville,Lenapah and Nowata|OKZ056|OKC105| CRAIG|Vinita,Welch and Centralia|OKZ057|OKC035| OTTAWA|Miami,Afton and Wyandotte|OKZ058|OKC115| PAWNEE|Pawneee,Maramec and Westport|OKZ059|OKC117| TULSA|the Tulsa Metropolitan Area,Collinsville and Skiatook|OKZ060|OKC143| ROGERS|Claremore,Catoosa and Oologah|OKZ061|OKC131| MAYES|Pryor,Chouteau and Locust Grove|OKZ062|OKC097| DELAWARE|Jay,Grove and much of Grand Lake|OKZ063|OKC041| CREEK|Bristow,Sapulpa,Oilton and Mounds|OKZ064|OKC037| OKFUSKEE|Okemah,Weleetka and Paden|OKZ065|OKC107| OKMULGEE|Henryetta,Okmulgee and Beggs|OKZ066|OKC111| WAGONER|Coweta,Wagoner and Fort Gibson Lake|OKZ067|OKC145| CHEROKEE|Tahlequah,Western Hills State Resort and Lake Tenkiller|OKZ068|OKC021| ADAIR|Watts,Stillwell and Westville|OKZ069|OKC001| MUSKOGEE|Muskogee,Webbers Falls and Boynton|OKZ070|OKC101| MCINTOSH|Checotah,Eufaula and much of Lake Eufaula|OKZ071|OKC091| SEQUOYAH|Sallisaw,Roland and Tenkiller State Park|OKZ072|OKC135| PITTSBURG|McAlester,Kiowa,Hartshorne and southern parts of Lake Eufaula|OKZ073|OKC121| HASKELL|Stigler,Keota and much of Kerr Lake|OKZ074|OKC061| LATIMER|Wilburton,Yanush and Robbers Cave State Park|OKZ075|OKC077| PUSHMATAHA|Antlers,Clayton and Sardis Lake|OKZ049|OKC127| CHOCTAW|Hugo,Boswell, and Hugo Lake|OKZ053|OKC023| LE_FLORE|Poteau,Talihina and Talimena Scenic Byway|OKZ076|OKC079| MCCURTAIN|Idabel,Broken Bow and Beavers Bend State Park|OKZ077|OKC089| BENTON|Bentonville,Rogers and Beaver Lake|ARZ001|ARC007| CARROLL|Eureka Springs and Berryville|ARZ002|ARC015| WASHINGTON_AR|Fayetteville,Springdale and Prairie Grove State Park|ARZ010|ARC143| MADISON|Huntsville and Withrow Springs State Park|ARZ011|ARC087| CRAWFORD|Van Buren,Alma and Devils Den and Lake Fort Smith State Parks|ARZ019|ARC033| SEBASTIAN|Fort Smith,Barling and Fort Chaffee|ARZ029|ARC131| FRANKLIN|Ozark and Charleston|ARZ020|ARC047|

TORNADO|F2TOR Threat DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/F2TORNADO24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png|Severe Threat DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/SEVERE24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png| TORNADO6_SUB| EF2_TORNADO_SUB| SEVERE_TSTORM|Max Hail Size DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXHAIL24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max TStorm Gust DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXTSTORMWIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| SEVERE_TSTORM6_SUB| SIGSVR_SUB|Max Hail Size DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXHAIL24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max TStorm Gust DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXTSTORMWIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| MAX_HAIL_SIZE_SUB| MAX_TSTORM_WIND_SUB| LIGHTNING|Storm Movement DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/STORMMOTION{MATCH}|Rainfall DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEAVYRAIN24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| LIGHTNING6_SUB| STORM_MOTION_SUB| HEAVY_RAIN|7 Day Total Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPFStormTotal.png|3 Day Max Possible Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPF10X.png| FLASH_FLOOD|Storm total Pcp ^http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NTP/INX_0.png|Flash Flood Guidance ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/ffg.png| RIVER_FLOOD|Heavy Rain DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEAVYRAIN24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|7 Day Total Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPFStormTotal.png | STRONG_WINDS|Current Gusts ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/plot-temps/obsWG_WindGrid.png|Watch/Warn/Advsy ^http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png| FIRE_DANGER|RedFlag Criteria ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/FIREPOT{MATCH}|MIN RH MAX Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/MinRH#.png| FIREPOT_SUB| FIRESPREADRATE_SUB| SNOW|7 Day Total Forecast Snow ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png|Observed Snow Accumulation ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/winter/ObsSnowAccum.jpg| SNOW6_SUB|7 Day Total Forecast Snow ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png|Observed Snow Accumulation ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/ObsSnowAmt24hr.png| ICE|7 Day Total Forecast Ice ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormIceAccum.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| ICE6_SUB|7 Day Total Forecast Ice ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormIceAccum.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| WINDCHILL|Min Temp DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MinT#_tsa.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| WINDCHILL6_SUB| VISIBILITY|Current RH ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/plot-temps/obsRH_WindGrid.png|MAX RH DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxMinRH!_tsa.png| HEAT_INDEX|Max Temp DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxT#_tsa.png|MIN RH DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxMinRH!_tsa.png| WBGT|Heat Index DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEATINDEX24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| AIR_QUALITY|Max 1 Hour Fcst Ozone ^http://www.weather.gov/aq/images/oklahoma/OZMAX11_oklahoma.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png|

|TORNADO| The chance (%) of Tornado Warning being issued for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT2 2-10 11-40 41-80 GT80 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/TORNADO| |TORNADO6| The chance (%) of Tornado Warning being issued for your location in the 6 hour period. LT2 2-10 11-40 41-80 GT80 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/TORNADO6| |EF2_TORNADO| A measure of the likelihood of a significant tornado (F2 or greater) if a tornado occurs. Environmental factors including the amount of wind shear are included in this calculation. It is based on statistical correlations on tornado days since 1950. LT -1 -1 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1.5 GT 1.5 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/EF2_TORNADO| |SEVERE_TSTORM| The chance (%) of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning being issued for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT5 5-20 21-40 41-70 GT70 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SEVERE_TSTORM| |SEVERE_TSTORM6| The chance (%) of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning being issued for your location in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT5 5-20 21-40 41-70 GT70 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SEVERE_TSTORM6| |SIGSVR| The Severe Thunderstorm Threat Potential. Probability of a severe thunderstorm warning multiplied by a factor representing the threat for max hail size and/or max wind gusts. Nil Limited Elevated Significant Critical /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SIGSVR| |MAX_HAIL_SIZE| If thunderstorms develop or move into the area, this is a measure of the expected maximum hail size (inches) that may fall from the strongest storms. It is a measure of the possible impact (large hail) from severe storms for the period. LT.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-2.0 2.0-3.0 GT3.0 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/MAX_HAIL_SIZE| |MAX_TSTORM_WIND| If thunderstorms develop or move into the area, this is a measure of the expected maximum thunderstorm wind gust (mph) that may occur with the strongest storms. It is a measure of the possible impact (high winds) from severe storms for the period. LT40 40-60 60-75 75-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/MAX_TSTORM_WIND| |LIGHTNING| The chance (%) that thunderstorms will develop or move into the area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). One impact that Thunderstorms bring is the threat of cloud to ground lightning. LT15 15-30 31-60 60-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/LIGHTNING| |LIGHTNING6| The chance (%) that thunderstorms will develop or move into the area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). One impact that Thunderstorms bring is the threat of cloud to ground lightning. LT15 15-30 31-60 60-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/LIGHTNING6| |STORM_MOTION| Average Storm motion (mph). LT20 20-29 30-39 40-50 GT50 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/STORM_MOTION| |HEAVY_RAIN| The average expected Rainfall (inches) for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). Rainfall amounts are highly variable, especially in thunderstorms. LT0.5 .5-1.5 1.5-2.5 2.5-4.0 GT4.0 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_percentile.php?fpd=24 |/HEAVY_RAIN| |FLASH_FLOOD| The chance (%) that a flash flood warning will be issued for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). It is based on forecast average rainfall amounts and current ground conditions. LT5 5-25 25-60 60-80 GT80 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1 |/FLASH_FLOOD| |RIVER_FLOOD| The forecast threat or current impact of River Flooding (category) in your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). It is based mainly on hydrologic forecasts from the River Forecast Center (ABRFC and LMRFC) and warnings issued by WFO Tulsa. None rain GT 2 in minor observed moderate major http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tsa |/RIVER_FLOOD| |STRONG_WINDS| The maximum wind gusts (mph) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). This does NOT include thunderstorm winds. LT25 25-39 40-58 59-70 GT70 /tsa/observations |/STRONG_WINDS| |FIRE_DANGER| This is a measure of the expected fire spread conditions. If a wild fire starts due to dry ground conditions and an ignition, then this is a measure of the possible impact of that fire (spreading) due to winds, temperatures and low relative humidities. LT30 30-43 44-63 64-80 GT80 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIRE_DANGER| |FIREPOT| This is an measure of the expected fire danger potential including ignition and spread. It could be an approximation of how close the forecast is to red flag criteria. LT75 75-90 91-100 101-110 GT110 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIREPOT| |FIRESPREADRATE| This is an experimental measure of the expected fire spread in grasslands in feet/minute. LT150 150-200 200-250 250-300 GT300 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIRESPREADRATE| |SNOW| The forecast 24 hour snow accumulation (inches) for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT1/10 in 1/10-1.0 in 1.1-4.0 in 4.1-8.0 in GT8.0 in /tsa/observations |/SNOW| |SNOW6| The forecast 6 hour snow accumulation (inches) for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT1/10 in 1/10-1.0 in 1.1-4.0 in 4.1-8.0 in GT8.0 in /tsa/observations |/SNOW6| |ICE| The forecast 24 hour ice accumulation (inches) for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT0.01 in 0.01-0.25 in 0.26-0.75 in 0.76-1.50 in GT1.50 in /tsa/observations |/ICE| |ICE6| The forecast 6 hour ice accumulation (inches) for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT0.01 in 0.01-0.25 in 0.26-0.75 in 0.76-1.50 in GT1.50 in /tsa/observations |/ICE6| |WINDCHILL| The Minimum 24 hour WindChill(deg F) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). WindChill is a measure of the affects of temperature+wind. GT10 0 to 10 -5 to -1 -10 to -6 LT-10 /tsa/observations |/WINDCHILL| |WINDCHILL6| The Minimum 6 hour WindChill(deg F) expected for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at Mid,6am,Noon and 6pm. WindChill is a measure of the affects of temperature+wind. GT10 0 to 10 -5 to -1 -10 to -6 LT-10 /tsa/observations |/WINDCHILL6| |VISIBILITY| This is a measure of expected impacts from reduced visibility from fog (most likely), smoke, blowing dust, or blowing snow. None patchy patchy dense areas dense widespread dense /tsa/observations |/VISIBILITY| |HEAT_INDEX| The maximum HeatIndex (deg F) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). HeatIndex is a measure of the affects of temperature+humidity. LT100 100-105 105-110 110-115 GT115 /tsa/observations |/HEAT_INDEX| |WBGT| Prototype - Under Development. Not to be used for operational use. Thanks to Dr. Vince Dimiceli (recently deceased) from ORU for help deriving this product. The Wetbulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) shown is the maximum WBGT for the 24 hour period. Usually it is highest during mid afternoon. The WBGT is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight which takes into account; temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation). This differs from the heat index which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas. If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor. Military agencies, OSHA and many nations in tropical or hot climate areas use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight. Contact Steve.Amburn@noaa.gov and james.frederick@noaa.gov for more info. LT83 83-86 87-90 91-93 GT93 /tsa/observations |/WBGT| |AIR_QUALITY| Ozone Alert for part of the area no ozone Alert not used Ozone Alert not used not used http://airquality.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php |/AIR_QUALITY|

Tropical Rainfall Continues from the Remnants of Imelda

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