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000 FLUS44 KTSA 142145 HWOTSA Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 445 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151145- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 445 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RISK...Limited. AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... A strong cold front has moved into northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon and will pass through the remainder of the region overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will form both ahead of and behind the front. Severe weather is unlikely from any of this activity. Gusty, northerly wind will spread across the area behind the cold front with wind gusts to near 30 mph possible across much of eastern Oklahoma through late tonight. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. MONDAY through SATURDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Widespread rain is expected Monday across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and again across southeastern Oklahoma Monday night and Tuesday. Locally heavy rain is likely in some areas, with 1 to 3 inches expected through Tuesday especially across far southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures on Monday will be unseasonably cold with afternoon high temperatures only in the 40s and wind chill values in the 30s. There will be the potential for the first freeze of the season Tuesday morning, with low temperatures in the lower 30s across far northeast Oklahoma. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$ 69

#county|cities|zone|fips| ALL|Tulsa and Fort Smith|ALL|ALL| OSAGE|Pawhuska,Hominy,Fairfax and Barnsdall|OKZ054|OKC113| WASHINGTON_OK|Bartlesville,Copan and Ramona|OKZ055|OKC147| NOWATA|South Coffeyville,Lenapah and Nowata|OKZ056|OKC105| CRAIG|Vinita,Welch and Centralia|OKZ057|OKC035| OTTAWA|Miami,Afton and Wyandotte|OKZ058|OKC115| PAWNEE|Pawneee,Maramec and Westport|OKZ059|OKC117| TULSA|the Tulsa Metropolitan Area,Collinsville and Skiatook|OKZ060|OKC143| ROGERS|Claremore,Catoosa and Oologah|OKZ061|OKC131| MAYES|Pryor,Chouteau and Locust Grove|OKZ062|OKC097| DELAWARE|Jay,Grove and much of Grand Lake|OKZ063|OKC041| CREEK|Bristow,Sapulpa,Oilton and Mounds|OKZ064|OKC037| OKFUSKEE|Okemah,Weleetka and Paden|OKZ065|OKC107| OKMULGEE|Henryetta,Okmulgee and Beggs|OKZ066|OKC111| WAGONER|Coweta,Wagoner and Fort Gibson Lake|OKZ067|OKC145| CHEROKEE|Tahlequah,Western Hills State Resort and Lake Tenkiller|OKZ068|OKC021| ADAIR|Watts,Stillwell and Westville|OKZ069|OKC001| MUSKOGEE|Muskogee,Webbers Falls and Boynton|OKZ070|OKC101| MCINTOSH|Checotah,Eufaula and much of Lake Eufaula|OKZ071|OKC091| SEQUOYAH|Sallisaw,Roland and Tenkiller State Park|OKZ072|OKC135| PITTSBURG|McAlester,Kiowa,Hartshorne and southern parts of Lake Eufaula|OKZ073|OKC121| HASKELL|Stigler,Keota and much of Kerr Lake|OKZ074|OKC061| LATIMER|Wilburton,Yanush and Robbers Cave State Park|OKZ075|OKC077| PUSHMATAHA|Antlers,Clayton and Sardis Lake|OKZ049|OKC127| CHOCTAW|Hugo,Boswell, and Hugo Lake|OKZ053|OKC023| LE_FLORE|Poteau,Talihina and Talimena Scenic Byway|OKZ076|OKC079| MCCURTAIN|Idabel,Broken Bow and Beavers Bend State Park|OKZ077|OKC089| BENTON|Bentonville,Rogers and Beaver Lake|ARZ001|ARC007| CARROLL|Eureka Springs and Berryville|ARZ002|ARC015| WASHINGTON_AR|Fayetteville,Springdale and Prairie Grove State Park|ARZ010|ARC143| MADISON|Huntsville and Withrow Springs State Park|ARZ011|ARC087| CRAWFORD|Van Buren,Alma and Devils Den and Lake Fort Smith State Parks|ARZ019|ARC033| SEBASTIAN|Fort Smith,Barling and Fort Chaffee|ARZ029|ARC131| FRANKLIN|Ozark and Charleston|ARZ020|ARC047|

TORNADO|F2TOR Threat DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/F2TORNADO24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png|Severe Threat DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/SEVERE24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png| TORNADO6_SUB| EF2_TORNADO_SUB| SEVERE_TSTORM|Max Hail Size DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXHAIL24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max TStorm Gust DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXTSTORMWIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| SEVERE_TSTORM6_SUB| SIGSVR_SUB|Max Hail Size DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXHAIL24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max TStorm Gust DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/MAXTSTORMWIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| MAX_HAIL_SIZE_SUB| MAX_TSTORM_WIND_SUB| LIGHTNING|Storm Movement DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/STORMMOTION{MATCH}|Rainfall DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEAVYRAIN24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| LIGHTNING6_SUB| STORM_MOTION_SUB| HEAVY_RAIN|7 Day Total Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPFStormTotal.png|3 Day Max Possible Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPF10X.png| FLASH_FLOOD|Storm total Pcp ^http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NTP/INX_0.png|Flash Flood Guidance ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/ffg.png| RIVER_FLOOD|Heavy Rain DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEAVYRAIN24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|7 Day Total Rainfall ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/QPFStormTotal.png | STRONG_WINDS|Current Gusts ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/plot-temps/obsWG_WindGrid.png|Watch/Warn/Advsy ^http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png| FIRE_DANGER|RedFlag Criteria ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/FIREPOT{MATCH}|MIN RH MAX Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/MinRH#.png| FIREPOT_SUB| FIRESPREADRATE_SUB| SNOW|7 Day Total Forecast Snow ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png|Observed Snow Accumulation ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/winter/ObsSnowAccum.jpg| SNOW6_SUB|7 Day Total Forecast Snow ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png|Observed Snow Accumulation ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/ObsSnowAmt24hr.png| ICE|7 Day Total Forecast Ice ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormIceAccum.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| ICE6_SUB|7 Day Total Forecast Ice ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/gfe/StormIceAccum.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| WINDCHILL|Min Temp DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MinT#_tsa.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| WINDCHILL6_SUB| VISIBILITY|Current RH ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/plot-temps/obsRH_WindGrid.png|MAX RH DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxMinRH!_tsa.png| HEAT_INDEX|Max Temp DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxT#_tsa.png|MIN RH DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/images/tsa/MaxMinRH!_tsa.png| WBGT|Heat Index DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/HEATINDEX24HRTHREAT{MATCH}|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT{MATCH}| AIR_QUALITY|Max 1 Hour Fcst Ozone ^http://www.weather.gov/aq/images/oklahoma/OZMAX11_oklahoma.png|Max Wind DDD ^http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/rtimages/DSPWeb/WIND24HRTHREAT_DAY1.png|

|TORNADO| The chance (%) of Tornado Warning being issued for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT2 2-10 11-40 41-80 GT80 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/TORNADO| |TORNADO6| The chance (%) of Tornado Warning being issued for your location in the 6 hour period. LT2 2-10 11-40 41-80 GT80 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/TORNADO6| |EF2_TORNADO| A measure of the likelihood of a significant tornado (F2 or greater) if a tornado occurs. Environmental factors including the amount of wind shear are included in this calculation. It is based on statistical correlations on tornado days since 1950. LT -1 -1 to 0 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1.5 GT 1.5 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/EF2_TORNADO| |SEVERE_TSTORM| The chance (%) of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning being issued for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT5 5-20 21-40 41-70 GT70 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SEVERE_TSTORM| |SEVERE_TSTORM6| The chance (%) of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning being issued for your location in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT5 5-20 21-40 41-70 GT70 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SEVERE_TSTORM6| |SIGSVR| The Severe Thunderstorm Threat Potential. Probability of a severe thunderstorm warning multiplied by a factor representing the threat for max hail size and/or max wind gusts. Nil Limited Elevated Significant Critical /tsa/convectiveIndex |/SIGSVR| |MAX_HAIL_SIZE| If thunderstorms develop or move into the area, this is a measure of the expected maximum hail size (inches) that may fall from the strongest storms. It is a measure of the possible impact (large hail) from severe storms for the period. LT.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-2.0 2.0-3.0 GT3.0 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/MAX_HAIL_SIZE| |MAX_TSTORM_WIND| If thunderstorms develop or move into the area, this is a measure of the expected maximum thunderstorm wind gust (mph) that may occur with the strongest storms. It is a measure of the possible impact (high winds) from severe storms for the period. LT40 40-60 60-75 75-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/MAX_TSTORM_WIND| |LIGHTNING| The chance (%) that thunderstorms will develop or move into the area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). One impact that Thunderstorms bring is the threat of cloud to ground lightning. LT15 15-30 31-60 60-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/LIGHTNING| |LIGHTNING6| The chance (%) that thunderstorms will develop or move into the area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). One impact that Thunderstorms bring is the threat of cloud to ground lightning. LT15 15-30 31-60 60-90 GT90 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/LIGHTNING6| |STORM_MOTION| Average Storm motion (mph). LT20 20-29 30-39 40-50 GT50 /tsa/convectiveIndex |/STORM_MOTION| |HEAVY_RAIN| The average expected Rainfall (inches) for your location in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). Rainfall amounts are highly variable, especially in thunderstorms. LT0.5 .5-1.5 1.5-2.5 2.5-4.0 GT4.0 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_percentile.php?fpd=24 |/HEAVY_RAIN| |FLASH_FLOOD| The chance (%) that a flash flood warning will be issued for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). It is based on forecast average rainfall amounts and current ground conditions. LT5 5-25 25-60 60-80 GT80 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1 |/FLASH_FLOOD| |RIVER_FLOOD| The forecast threat or current impact of River Flooding (category) in your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). It is based mainly on hydrologic forecasts from the River Forecast Center (ABRFC and LMRFC) and warnings issued by WFO Tulsa. None rain GT 2 in minor observed moderate major http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tsa |/RIVER_FLOOD| |STRONG_WINDS| The maximum wind gusts (mph) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). This does NOT include thunderstorm winds. LT25 25-39 40-58 59-70 GT70 /tsa/observations |/STRONG_WINDS| |FIRE_DANGER| This is a measure of the expected fire spread conditions. If a wild fire starts due to dry ground conditions and an ignition, then this is a measure of the possible impact of that fire (spreading) due to winds, temperatures and low relative humidities. LT30 30-43 44-63 64-80 GT80 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIRE_DANGER| |FIREPOT| This is an measure of the expected fire danger potential including ignition and spread. It could be an approximation of how close the forecast is to red flag criteria. LT75 75-90 91-100 101-110 GT110 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIREPOT| |FIRESPREADRATE| This is an experimental measure of the expected fire spread in grasslands in feet/minute. LT150 150-200 200-250 250-300 GT300 /tsa/fireweatherForecast |/FIRESPREADRATE| |SNOW| The forecast 24 hour snow accumulation (inches) for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT1/10 in 1/10-1.0 in 1.1-4.0 in 4.1-8.0 in GT8.0 in /tsa/observations |/SNOW| |SNOW6| The forecast 6 hour snow accumulation (inches) for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT1/10 in 1/10-1.0 in 1.1-4.0 in 4.1-8.0 in GT8.0 in /tsa/observations |/SNOW6| |ICE| The forecast 24 hour ice accumulation (inches) for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). LT0.01 in 0.01-0.25 in 0.26-0.75 in 0.76-1.50 in GT1.50 in /tsa/observations |/ICE| |ICE6| The forecast 6 hour ice accumulation (inches) for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at 7am-1pm-7pm-1am (CDT) or 6am-noon-6pm-midnight (CST). LT0.01 in 0.01-0.25 in 0.26-0.75 in 0.76-1.50 in GT1.50 in /tsa/observations |/ICE6| |WINDCHILL| The Minimum 24 hour WindChill(deg F) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). WindChill is a measure of the affects of temperature+wind. GT10 0 to 10 -5 to -1 -10 to -6 LT-10 /tsa/observations |/WINDCHILL| |WINDCHILL6| The Minimum 6 hour WindChill(deg F) expected for your area in the 6 hour period beginning at Mid,6am,Noon and 6pm. WindChill is a measure of the affects of temperature+wind. GT10 0 to 10 -5 to -1 -10 to -6 LT-10 /tsa/observations |/WINDCHILL6| |VISIBILITY| This is a measure of expected impacts from reduced visibility from fog (most likely), smoke, blowing dust, or blowing snow. None patchy patchy dense areas dense widespread dense /tsa/observations |/VISIBILITY| |HEAT_INDEX| The maximum HeatIndex (deg F) expected for your area in the 24 hour period beginning at 7am (CDT) or 6am (CST). HeatIndex is a measure of the affects of temperature+humidity. LT100 100-105 105-110 110-115 GT115 /tsa/observations |/HEAT_INDEX| |WBGT| Prototype - Under Development. Not to be used for operational use. Thanks to Dr. Vince Dimiceli (recently deceased) from ORU for help deriving this product. The Wetbulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) shown is the maximum WBGT for the 24 hour period. Usually it is highest during mid afternoon. The WBGT is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight which takes into account; temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation). This differs from the heat index which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas. If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor. Military agencies, OSHA and many nations in tropical or hot climate areas use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight. Contact Steve.Amburn@noaa.gov and james.frederick@noaa.gov for more info. LT83 83-86 87-90 91-93 GT93 /tsa/observations |/WBGT| |AIR_QUALITY| Ozone Alert for part of the area no ozone Alert not used Ozone Alert not used not used http://airquality.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php |/AIR_QUALITY|

Extreme Fire Weather Threat in Southern California; Chilly Weather for Much of U.S.; Heavy Rain in South Plains

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