Severe Storms in the Upper Midwest; Heavy Rain in the Mid-Atlantic; Widespread Heat in the Southwest

Severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rain will impact portions of the Upper Midwest. A lingering front will bring another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic. Excessive heat continues in the South Plains to the Southwest, and fire weather threats remain Critical across the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and into the Plains. Read More >

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Hydrology
Eastern Oklahoma & Northwest Arkansas

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The National Weather Service (NWS) has responsibility for the issuance of river forecasts and flood warnings. The NWS Tulsa office has hydrologic responsibility for 34 forecast points on streams and rivers covering an area of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

To issue these river forecasts, local NWS offices rely upon forecast guidance generated by a regional NWS River Forecast Center (RFC). The RFCs use complex hydrologic computer models to forecast rivers. NWS Tulsa is serviced by two RFCs, the co-located Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) and the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) in Slidell, Louisiana.

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Franklin County flood services from NWS Tulsa as of Feb. 5, 2014
Past significant flooding event summaries
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Rivers & Lakes
Current and Forecast Information

Rainfall
Past, Current, and Forecast Precipitation Information

Most of the forecast points in the NWS Tulsa area have telemetered river gage equipment. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) own and/or maintain the vast majority of these river gages.

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service - Recent observations and forecasts, as well as station information, for area rivers and lakes.
River observations and forecast graphs for mobile phones
River and Lake level Summary
Daily River 7am Stage and Forecast

The forecasts of river stages is generated by complex computer models at the RFCs which incorporate many factors. The local NWS offices receive these river stage forecasts from the RFCs and generate public products under several headings:

River Flood Warning an initial product warning interests that a river is forecast to rise above flood stage.
River Flood Statement a followup product which updates a River Flood Warning.
River Advisory a product which provides information when a river is forecast to reach Action Stage but expected to remain below Flood Stage.
River Statement a product which provides information when a river is not forecast to reach Flood Stage.
RRS feeds available
Hydrology and Monthly Climate Summaries and Highlights

Precipitation data is vital to river forecasting. Local NWS offices must supply the RFCs with precipitation data to input into their computer models. The ABRFC and the LMRFC precipitation gage data is blended with precipitation estimates from a network of WSR-88D radars to produce cumulative precipitation maps. This processed data is one of the main inputs into the RFC's hydrologic model.

Current and Archived Precipitation for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
Current Hourly Precipitation Analysis
Current Rainfall Reports
Recent Rainfall from the Oklahoma Mesonet

In the past, river forecasts were made strictly on the basis of rainfall which had occurred. Today, river forecasts incorporate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) into the hydrologic model, as well. This has led to more accurate river forecasts, especially in the fall and winter months, when areal rainfall tends to be more uniform.