Area Forecast Discussion from the Albuquerque National Weather Service

FXUS65 KABQ 302146
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 342 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025

- Deeper moisture over New Mexico tomorrow will contribute to a
  high threat of burn scar flash flooding tomorrow afternoon. A
  Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Ruidoso burn scar
  area.

- A few dry storms with little to no rainfall and erratic
  downburst winds will develop tomorrow over the Continental
  Divide and Rio Grande Valley. These storms have the potential to
  start new fires.

- A Pacific storm system late this weekend and early next week
  looks to bring more widespread precipitation and increased
  threat of burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025

Storms are already firing along the central mountain chain, with
some stronger cells along the slopes of the Sacramento mountains
where there is some more favorable instability with CAPE values
around 1000 J/kg. While the environment over eastern New Mexico
today is not as conducive for strong super cells as it was
yesterday, recent sounding analysis shows that thunderstorms may be
able to tap into some greater shear aloft. There is a marginal risk
of severe weather along and east of the central mountain chain, with
hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall being the main
threats. Some storms also popping up west of the Rio Grande valley
this afternoon, where some more rich mid-level moisture has allowed
for the development of virga showers and dry thunderstorms. With
drier conditions at the surface, wetting precipitation looks
unlikely. Any lightning strikes may be able to cause new fire starts
which could be fanned by gusty and erratic outflows from these
storms. Most storm activity looks to diminish right around sunset,
but some showers could pop up along another backdoor front in
eastern New Mexico this evening.

Similar to the last several days, the backdoor front will swing
through the eastern areas and push into the Rio Grande Valley. This
front looks to be a little bit weaker than last night's, and it
looks to get stalled by southerly flow over southeastern New Mexico.
However, the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas look to a light to
breezy gap wind, with gusts up to 25 kts late tonight and over the
midnight hours. During the day tomorrow some moisture looks to once
again mix out, but conditions look to remain little bit more juicy
over western and central areas when compared to previous days.
Precipitable water content looks to climb to about 0.7 to 0.9 inches
over eastern and south central New Mexico. This moisture content is
within the 90th percentile for this time of year, and as a result,
there is a heightened threat of burn scar flash flooding over the
Ruidoso area. Models are indicating a series of storms lingering
over the Sacramento Mountains starting as early as noon. Rainfall
amounts look to be between 0.25 to 0.75 inches, but some ensembles
are showing 3 hr QPF maxes of close to 1.5 inches. As a result, a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Ruidoso area for tomorrow
afternoon. Some greater moisture over the Gila could also lead to
some wetting precipitation over southwestern areas. North of the
Gila, dry thunder and virga looks to be a threat once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025

All attention for Sunday and onwards will turn to the evolution of
an upper level low pressure system spinning over Baja California
that looks to bring much more widespread precipitation early next
week. However, it seems that guidance has trended just a tad slower
and with a track bit farther west for the Sunday through Monday time
period. Before the system starts to push into the Desert Southwest,
upper level ridging looks to sharpen over New Mexico, with heights
climbing to around 588 dm on Sunday afternoon. So despite some mid
upper level cloud cover streaming in from the south, temperatures
during the afternoon look to be quite toasty, with highs 2 to 10
degrees above normal for this time of year over central and western
areas. Once the system finally ejects into Arizona late Sunday, a
surge of moisture looks to bring increased chances of rainfall
during the early morning hours on Monday. Model PWATS could climb to
about 1 inch, near record values for early June. There is still some
uncertainty on shower timing and coverage associated with the storm
track, but conditions look to be much wetter over western and
southern areas. Greater coverage of storms could mean an increased
burn scar flash  flood threat, but the storm system looks to be
swinging north pretty quickly and making storm motions faster as
well.

This system will also bring some stronger winds across the Land of
Enchantment, but winds trended slightly down with this forecast
package. Then a second storm system looks to follow behind on
Tuesday, keeping conditions pretty moist heading into the middle of
the week. A backdoor front on Tuesday night also looks to further
moisten eastern areas and also an area where storms could initiate
ahead of the boundary. Thunderstorms could develop along eastern
areas on Wednesday and Thursday before flow becomes more zonal and
conditions look to get warmer and drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri May 30 2025

VFR conditions at all sites throughout the period and mid and high
clouds look to increase in coverage throughout the day. Some
thunderstorm activity developing along the central mountain chain
may create some gusty and erratic winds and some precipitation
for KSAF and KLVS later this afternoon. Meanwhile out west, virga
showers may also lead to gusty and erratic winds near KGUP. A
backdoor front is once again is expected to push through eastern
New Mexico this evening and bring in a 15 to 25 kt canyon gap
wind for the Santa Fe and ABQ metros.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025

Increased mid-level moisture has led to the development of virga and
dry thunder for areas west of the central mountain. Moisture looks
to spread farther west on Saturday, which could lead to some wetting
precipitation over the Gila region, but some dry thunder storms
could once again be possible for areas farther north. Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will again impact
eastern NM each day. Late Sunday into Monday, an upper level low
will push east into the Desert Southwest. Abundant Pacific moisture,
including remnants of now Tropical Storm Alvin, will spread across
NM and widespread wetting rain with isolated thunderstorms is
expected favoring western and central NM. Another upper level low
will arrive quickly on the heels of the first, keeping showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the middle of the week.
Conditions look to dry out for western areas towards the end of the
week as upper level flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  91  56  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  42  86  44  88 /  20  10  10  30
Cuba............................  48  85  51  86 /   5  10  10  30
Gallup..........................  45  88  48  88 /   0   5   5  30
El Morro........................  50  83  52  83 /   5  10  10  50
Grants..........................  47  88  50  88 /   5  10  10  40
Quemado.........................  51  85  53  83 /   5  20  10  50
Magdalena.......................  56  84  59  85 /  10  20  20  40
Datil...........................  51  83  54  82 /  10  20  20  50
Reserve.........................  48  91  49  89 /   5  20  10  40
Glenwood........................  53  94  54  93 /   5  20  10  40
Chama...........................  43  80  44  81 /  20  20  20  30
Los Alamos......................  55  81  57  82 /  10  30  20  30
Pecos...........................  51  81  52  82 /  10  30  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  48  80  49  82 /  20  20  20  30
Red River.......................  41  70  43  72 /  20  30  30  40
Angel Fire......................  38  74  39  76 /  20  30  20  40
Taos............................  44  83  46  84 /  10  20  20  30
Mora............................  46  76  46  77 /  20  40  20  40
Espanola........................  52  88  54  90 /  10  20  10  30
Santa Fe........................  55  83  56  85 /  10  20  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  54  86  55  88 /  10  20  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  90  64  91 /   5  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  91  62  93 /   5  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  94  61  95 /   5  10  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  92  62  93 /   5  10  10  20
Belen...........................  55  93  58  95 /   5  10  10  20
Bernalillo......................  58  93  60  94 /   5  10  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  54  93  57  95 /   5  10  10  20
Corrales........................  59  93  61  95 /   5  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  56  93  59  95 /   5  10  10  20
Placitas........................  59  88  62  90 /   5  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  59  93  62  94 /   5  10  10  20
Socorro.........................  60  95  62  96 /  10  20  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  84  56  85 /   5  20  10  30
Tijeras.........................  55  86  57  88 /   5  20  10  30
Edgewood........................  50  86  52  88 /   5  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  86  49  88 /   5  20  10  30
Clines Corners..................  50  81  51  81 /  10  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  51  86  54  87 /   5  20  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  51  84  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  58  86  61  88 /  10  30  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  54  78  57  80 /  10  50  20  40
Capulin.........................  48  76  47  77 /  10  20  30  20
Raton...........................  48  82  49  82 /  20  20  20  30
Springer........................  48  82  50  82 /  10  20  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  48  79  49  80 /  10  40  20  30
Clayton.........................  56  83  54  81 /   0  10  20   5
Roy.............................  51  81  52  80 /  10  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  56  88  57  89 /  10  20  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  55  86  56  86 /  10  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  58  88  58  88 /   5  10  30  10
Clovis..........................  59  89  61  89 /   5  20  20  10
Portales........................  58  89  59  90 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  56  89  58  90 /  10  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  64  93  66  97 /  10  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  57  87  59  90 /  20  30  10  30
Elk.............................  54  85  57  88 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25