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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Saturday May 16 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, May 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 73.8 F/23.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1399 ft/min (7.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20993 ft MSL (14661 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 86.0 F/30.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18935 ft MSL (12604 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/17....... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:59:25 / 20:01:22 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 1 min 57 sec (841 min 57 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:24 MDT... 74.26 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14376 ft MSL (8044 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21816 ft MSL (15484 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 21681 ft MSL (15350 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -0.2
K index......................... +10.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.7 -79.1 255 42 22 0.5 0.3 87.2 189.0 33.6 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 255 41 21 2.6 1.4 65.5 149.9 22.3 M M
40000 -56.5 -69.7 255 28 14 3.6 2.0 49.4 120.9 13.0 M M
38000 -53.0 -63.4 260 26 13 6.0 3.3 45.5 113.9 10.7 M M
36000 -49.4 -56.9 265 24 12 6.0 3.3 42.5 108.4 8.8 M M
34000 -45.3 -49.5 270 24 12 7.4 4.0 40.0 104.0 7.3 M M
32000 -40.4 -40.7 270 25 13 7.4 4.0 37.9 100.2 5.9 M M
30000 -35.8 -32.4 270 25 13 7.9 4.3 36.2 97.2 4.8 M M
29000 -33.4 -28.1 270 25 13 7.9 4.3 35.5 95.9 4.3 M M
28000 -31.0 -23.8 270 24 12 7.9 4.3 34.9 94.9 3.9 M M
27000 -28.7 -19.7 270 23 12 7.9 4.3 34.2 93.5 3.3 M M
26000 -26.3 -15.3 265 21 11 7.9 4.3 33.4 92.2 2.8 M M
25000 -23.9 -11.0 265 20 10 7.9 4.3 32.8 91.1 2.3 M M
24000 -21.5 -6.7 260 19 10 8.4 4.6 32.3 90.1 1.8 M M
23000 -19.0 -2.2 260 18 9 8.4 4.6 31.7 89.1 1.4 M M
22000 -16.4 2.5 255 18 9 8.4 4.6 31.3 88.4 1.1 M M
21000 -14.5 5.9 250 18 9 5.1 2.8 30.2 86.3 0.1 M M
20000 -13.0 8.6 250 18 9 5.1 2.8 28.5 83.3 -1.3 1332 6.8
19500 -12.3 9.9 245 18 9 5.2 2.8 27.8 82.0 -2.1 1295 6.6
19000 -11.5 11.3 245 18 9 5.2 2.9 27.0 80.6 -2.7 1258 6.4
18500 -10.4 13.3 240 19 10 5.5 3.0 25.9 78.6 -3.8 1201 6.1
18000 -9.6 14.7 235 19 10 6.0 3.3 25.2 77.3 -4.5 1163 5.9
17500 -8.4 16.9 235 18 9 9.0 5.0 24.9 76.7 -4.8 1114 5.7
17000 -7.1 19.2 235 17 9 8.8 4.9 24.7 76.5 -5.0 1060 5.4
16500 -5.8 21.6 230 16 8 9.2 5.1 24.6 76.2 -5.2 1005 5.1
16000 -4.4 24.1 235 15 8 9.3 5.1 24.5 76.1 -5.3 949 4.8
15500 -3.0 26.6 235 14 7 9.4 5.2 24.4 76.0 -5.4 893 4.5
15000 -1.6 29.1 235 13 7 9.6 5.3 24.4 75.9 -5.5 836 4.2
14500 -0.2 31.6 240 12 6 9.6 5.3 24.4 75.9 -5.5 778 4.0
14000 1.2 34.2 245 11 6 9.7 5.3 24.4 75.8 -5.6 720 3.7
13500 2.7 36.9 245 10 5 9.8 5.4 24.4 75.8 -5.6 662 3.4
13000 4.1 39.4 255 9 5 9.3 5.1 24.3 75.8 -5.7 605 3.1
12500 5.5 41.9 265 9 4 9.4 5.1 24.2 75.6 -5.8 549 2.8
12000 6.9 44.4 280 8 4 8.9 4.9 24.2 75.5 -5.9 493 2.5
11500 8.2 46.8 295 9 5 8.7 4.8 24.0 75.3 -6.1 438 2.2
11000 9.5 49.1 305 10 5 8.9 4.9 23.9 74.9 -6.3 385 2.0
10500 10.8 51.4 315 12 6 9.2 5.0 23.7 74.7 -6.4 330 1.7
10250 11.5 52.7 315 13 6 8.4 4.6 23.7 74.6 -6.5 302 1.5
10000 12.1 53.8 315 13 7 7.9 4.3 23.5 74.4 -6.7 277 1.4
9750 12.7 54.9 315 14 7 8.4 4.6 23.4 74.2 -6.8 252 1.3
9500 13.3 55.9 315 15 8 8.1 4.4 23.3 73.9 -6.9 226 1.1
9250 13.9 57.0 315 16 8 8.9 4.9 23.2 73.7 -7.1 200 1.0
9000 14.6 58.3 315 17 9 7.8 4.3 23.1 73.6 -7.1 173 0.9
8750 15.1 59.2 315 18 9 6.2 3.4 22.9 73.2 -7.4 151 0.8
8500 15.5 59.9 310 18 9 6.8 3.7 22.6 72.7 -7.7 129 0.7
8250 16.0 60.8 310 19 10 6.0 3.3 22.4 72.3 -7.9 107 0.5
8000 16.4 61.5 305 19 10 4.8 2.6 22.1 71.7 -8.3 87 0.4
7750 16.8 62.2 300 20 10 3.9 2.1 21.6 71.0 -8.7 70 0.4
7500 17.0 62.6 295 20 10 4.2 2.3 21.2 70.1 -9.2 54 0.3
7250 17.3 63.1 290 20 10 -1.0 -0.5 20.7 69.2 -9.7 41 0.2
7000 16.9 62.4 285 18 9 -6.0 -3.3 19.6 67.2 -10.8 44 0.2
6750 16.5 61.7 280 16 8 -4.5 -2.5 18.5 65.2 -12.0 48 0.2
6500 15.9 60.6 275 13 6 -15.5 -8.5 17.1 62.8 -13.3 59 0.3
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +8.0 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +3.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.6 -78.9 255 44 23 0.7 0.4 | -61.7 -79.1 250 43 22 0.8 0.5
45000 -60.2 -76.4 255 47 24 1.7 0.9 | -60.3 -76.5 250 49 25 1.4 0.7
40000 -57.6 -71.7 245 37 19 3.1 1.7 | -58.3 -72.9 245 39 20 2.6 1.4
38000 -53.9 -65.0 250 32 17 6.5 3.5 | -54.4 -65.9 250 37 19 6.8 3.7
36000 -50.0 -58.0 255 28 14 6.4 3.5 | -50.3 -58.5 250 34 18 6.8 3.7
34000 -45.2 -49.4 260 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -45.4 -49.7 250 32 16 7.6 4.2
32000 -40.6 -41.1 255 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -40.8 -41.4 245 31 16 7.6 4.2
30000 -35.9 -32.6 255 24 12 7.9 4.3 | -36.1 -33.0 245 29 15 8.1 4.5
29000 -33.6 -28.5 255 23 12 7.9 4.3 | -33.6 -28.5 245 28 15 8.1 4.5
28000 -31.2 -24.2 255 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -31.2 -24.2 245 28 14 8.1 4.4
27000 -28.7 -19.7 255 22 11 8.5 4.7 | -28.7 -19.7 245 26 14 8.7 4.8
26000 -26.2 -15.2 255 21 11 8.5 4.7 | -26.1 -15.0 245 25 13 8.7 4.8
25000 -23.6 -10.5 255 20 10 8.5 4.7 | -23.4 -10.1 245 24 12 8.7 4.8
24000 -21.1 -6.0 255 19 10 8.3 4.6 | -20.9 -5.6 250 23 12 8.1 4.5
23000 -18.6 -1.5 255 18 9 8.3 4.6 | -18.5 -1.3 250 23 12 8.1 4.4
22000 -16.1 3.0 255 18 9 8.3 4.6 | -16.1 3.0 250 23 12 8.1 4.4
21000 -13.8 7.2 255 18 9 7.2 3.9 | -13.8 7.2 245 22 11 7.1 3.9
20000 -11.7 10.9 255 19 10 7.2 3.9 | -11.7 10.9 245 20 10 7.1 3.9
19500 -10.6 12.9 255 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -10.6 12.9 240 19 10 7.1 3.9
19000 -9.1 15.6 255 19 10 4.4 2.4 | -9.1 15.6 235 18 9 6.1 3.3
18500 -8.6 16.5 250 18 9 4.0 2.2 | -8.2 17.2 230 19 10 5.9 3.2
18000 -8.0 17.6 245 17 9 4.3 2.4 | -7.3 18.9 225 19 10 5.9 3.3
17500 -7.3 18.9 235 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -6.4 20.5 220 19 10 6.3 3.4
17000 -6.5 20.3 230 17 9 5.2 2.9 | -5.5 22.1 215 18 9 6.4 3.5
16500 -5.6 21.9 225 18 9 7.9 4.4 | -4.6 23.7 210 18 9 5.8 3.2
16000 -4.4 24.1 225 18 9 8.2 4.5 | -3.8 25.2 210 16 8 5.9 3.2
15500 -3.2 26.2 220 18 9 8.7 4.8 | -3.0 26.6 205 15 8 7.2 4.0
15000 -1.8 28.8 225 16 8 9.3 5.1 | -1.8 28.8 205 14 7 8.5 4.7
14500 -0.4 31.3 225 15 8 9.3 5.1 | -0.6 30.9 205 12 6 8.7 4.8
14000 0.9 33.6 230 14 7 9.0 4.9 | 0.8 33.4 205 12 6 9.6 5.3
13500 2.3 36.1 230 12 6 9.0 4.9 | 2.2 36.0 210 11 6 9.5 5.2
13000 3.6 38.5 235 10 5 9.4 5.2 | 3.7 38.7 210 11 6 9.4 5.2
12500 5.0 41.0 240 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 5.1 41.2 210 11 5 9.4 5.1
12000 6.3 43.3 240 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 6.5 43.7 210 10 5 9.8 5.4
11500 7.6 45.7 250 6 3 8.3 4.5 | 8.0 46.4 210 10 5 9.4 5.1
11000 8.7 47.7 265 6 3 7.4 4.0 | 9.3 48.7 210 9 5 9.7 5.3
10500 9.8 49.6 285 6 3 7.5 4.1 | 10.8 51.4 210 9 5 9.9 5.4
10250 10.3 50.5 290 7 3 7.0 3.8 | 11.5 52.7 210 9 5 9.3 5.1
10000 10.8 51.4 295 7 4 6.1 3.4 | 12.2 54.0 210 9 4 9.5 5.2
9750 11.3 52.3 300 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 13.0 55.4 210 8 4 10.3 5.7
9500 11.7 53.1 300 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 13.7 56.7 210 8 4 9.7 5.3
9250 12.1 53.8 300 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 14.5 58.1 210 8 4 11.2 6.2
9000 12.6 54.7 300 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 15.3 59.5 210 8 4 10.7 5.8
8750 13.0 55.4 295 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 16.0 60.8 210 8 4 8.9 4.9
8500 13.5 56.3 295 7 4 5.8 3.2 | 16.7 62.1 210 8 4 9.1 5.0
8250 13.9 57.0 290 7 4 7.3 4.0 | 17.4 63.3 210 8 4 10.1 5.6
8000 14.6 58.3 290 7 3 8.9 4.9 | 18.2 64.8 205 7 4 10.9 6.0
7750 15.2 59.4 290 6 3 8.5 4.7 | 19.0 66.2 205 7 4 9.8 5.4
7500 15.8 60.4 285 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 19.7 67.5 205 7 4 9.6 5.3
7250 16.5 61.7 285 6 3 9.8 5.4 | 20.4 68.7 205 7 4 10.5 5.8
7000 17.3 63.1 285 5 3 10.7 5.9 | 21.3 70.3 205 7 4 11.6 6.4
6750 18.1 64.6 280 5 3 9.5 5.2 | 22.1 71.8 205 7 3 10.2 5.6
6500 18.8 65.8 280 5 3 11.3 6.2 | 22.9 73.2 205 6 3 14.6 8.0
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.9
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +6.5 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.6 -78.9 250 49 25 0.9 0.5 | -61.3 -78.3 250 48 25 1.1 0.6
45000 -60.1 -76.2 250 54 28 1.6 0.9 | -59.4 -74.9 250 54 28 1.7 0.9
40000 -57.7 -71.9 250 45 23 2.6 1.4 | -56.8 -70.2 245 49 25 2.4 1.3
38000 -54.1 -65.4 245 40 20 6.3 3.5 | -53.6 -64.5 245 44 23 5.6 3.1
36000 -50.3 -58.5 240 34 18 6.3 3.5 | -50.2 -58.4 240 39 20 5.6 3.1
34000 -45.4 -49.7 240 32 16 8.0 4.4 | -46.1 -51.0 240 36 18 8.1 4.4
32000 -40.6 -41.1 240 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -40.6 -41.1 240 35 18 8.1 4.4
30000 -35.7 -32.3 240 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -35.8 -32.4 240 33 17 8.0 4.4
29000 -33.3 -27.9 240 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -33.4 -28.1 240 32 17 8.0 4.4
28000 -30.8 -23.4 240 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -31.1 -24.0 245 31 16 8.0 4.4
27000 -28.3 -18.9 240 30 15 8.6 4.7 | -28.6 -19.5 245 30 15 8.2 4.5
26000 -25.7 -14.3 245 29 15 8.6 4.7 | -26.2 -15.2 245 28 14 8.2 4.5
25000 -23.2 -9.8 245 28 14 8.5 4.7 | -23.7 -10.7 245 26 14 8.2 4.5
24000 -20.8 -5.4 245 26 14 7.4 4.0 | -21.3 -6.3 245 25 13 8.2 4.5
23000 -18.6 -1.5 245 25 13 7.4 4.0 | -18.8 -1.8 245 23 12 8.2 4.5
22000 -16.4 2.5 245 24 12 7.4 4.0 | -16.4 2.5 245 21 11 8.2 4.5
21000 -14.2 6.4 245 23 12 7.2 4.0 | -14.0 6.8 245 21 11 7.8 4.3
20000 -12.0 10.4 240 22 11 7.2 4.0 | -11.7 10.9 250 21 11 7.8 4.3
19500 -10.9 12.4 240 22 11 7.2 4.0 | -10.5 13.1 250 21 11 7.8 4.3
19000 -9.3 15.3 235 21 11 6.3 3.5 | -9.3 15.3 250 21 11 7.7 4.2
18500 -8.5 16.7 230 19 10 6.2 3.4 | -8.0 17.6 255 21 11 5.5 3.0
18000 -7.6 18.3 225 18 9 6.3 3.5 | -7.3 18.9 255 21 11 5.6 3.1
17500 -6.7 19.9 225 16 8 6.4 3.5 | -6.4 20.5 250 20 10 6.8 3.7
17000 -5.8 21.6 220 15 8 6.3 3.5 | -5.4 22.3 250 19 10 6.6 3.6
16500 -4.7 23.5 220 14 7 9.0 5.0 | -4.4 24.1 250 17 9 8.1 4.4
16000 -3.3 26.1 215 14 7 9.4 5.2 | -3.1 26.4 245 17 9 8.6 4.7
15500 -1.9 28.6 215 14 7 9.5 5.2 | -1.8 28.8 240 16 8 9.0 4.9
15000 -0.4 31.3 215 14 7 9.6 5.3 | -0.4 31.3 240 16 8 9.9 5.4
14500 1.0 33.8 215 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 1.1 34.0 235 16 8 9.9 5.4
14000 2.4 36.3 215 14 7 9.4 5.1 | 2.6 36.7 235 16 8 9.5 5.2
13500 3.8 38.8 215 14 7 9.4 5.2 | 4.0 39.2 235 16 8 9.5 5.2
13000 5.2 41.4 215 14 7 9.4 5.2 | 5.4 41.7 230 16 8 9.7 5.3
12500 6.6 43.9 215 14 7 9.4 5.2 | 6.9 44.4 230 16 8 9.8 5.4
12000 8.1 46.6 210 15 7 9.9 5.4 | 8.3 46.9 230 16 8 8.9 4.9
11500 9.6 49.3 210 15 8 9.9 5.4 | 9.6 49.3 225 17 9 9.9 5.4
11000 11.0 51.8 210 15 8 9.9 5.4 | 11.2 52.2 225 17 9 10.2 5.6
10500 12.5 54.5 210 15 8 10.1 5.5 | 12.7 54.9 225 17 9 9.9 5.4
10250 13.2 55.8 210 16 8 8.9 4.9 | 13.4 56.1 225 17 9 9.5 5.2
10000 13.9 57.0 210 16 8 8.9 4.9 | 14.2 57.6 220 17 9 9.9 5.4
9750 14.6 58.3 210 16 8 10.3 5.6 | 14.9 58.8 220 17 9 10.4 5.7
9500 15.3 59.5 210 16 8 9.2 5.1 | 15.7 60.3 220 17 9 10.7 5.9
9250 16.1 61.0 210 16 8 12.0 6.6 | 16.5 61.7 220 18 9 8.9 4.9
9000 17.1 62.8 210 16 8 11.5 6.3 | 17.1 62.8 220 18 9 8.6 4.7
8750 17.7 63.9 210 16 8 8.5 4.6 | 17.8 64.0 220 18 9 10.1 5.5
8500 18.4 65.1 210 17 9 8.9 4.9 | 18.5 65.3 220 18 9 9.6 5.3
8250 19.1 66.4 210 17 9 10.1 5.5 | 19.3 66.7 215 18 9 10.1 5.6
8000 19.9 67.8 210 17 9 11.2 6.1 | 20.0 68.0 215 18 9 10.2 5.6
7750 20.7 69.3 210 17 9 9.9 5.4 | 20.8 69.4 215 18 10 9.5 5.2
7500 21.4 70.5 210 17 9 9.4 5.1 | 21.5 70.7 215 19 10 9.1 5.0
7250 22.1 71.8 210 17 9 10.2 5.6 | 22.2 72.0 215 19 10 9.6 5.3
7000 23.0 73.4 210 17 9 11.6 6.4 | 22.9 73.2 215 18 9 10.5 5.8
6750 23.8 74.8 210 16 8 10.8 5.9 | 23.8 74.8 210 18 9 12.6 6.9
6500 24.7 76.5 210 15 8 17.2 9.4 | 24.8 76.6 210 16 8 15.2 8.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0724 MDT Saturday May 16 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, May 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 74.4 F/23.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1340 ft/min (6.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20209 ft MSL (14524 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 88.0 F/31.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18271 ft MSL (12587 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/17....... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:01:46 / 20:04:00 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 2 min 13 sec (842 min 13 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:02:53 MDT... 74.19 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14251 ft MSL (8566 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21187 ft MSL (15502 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20915 ft MSL (15230 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.5
K index......................... +10.7
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.8 -79.2 255 42 22 1.0 0.5 89.4 192.9 34.0 M M
45000 -60.0 -76.0 255 43 22 2.1 1.2 68.2 154.8 23.2 M M
40000 -56.8 -70.2 260 34 18 3.5 1.9 51.0 123.9 13.3 M M
38000 -53.4 -64.1 260 32 16 5.8 3.2 47.0 116.6 10.9 M M
36000 -49.8 -57.6 265 29 15 5.8 3.2 43.8 110.9 9.0 M M
34000 -45.7 -50.3 265 27 14 7.5 4.1 41.3 106.4 7.4 M M
32000 -41.2 -42.2 265 26 13 7.5 4.1 39.6 103.2 6.3 M M
30000 -36.5 -33.7 265 25 13 8.2 4.5 38.1 100.6 5.3 M M
29000 -34.0 -29.2 260 24 12 8.2 4.5 37.5 99.5 4.9 M M
28000 -30.9 -23.6 260 23 12 8.2 4.5 36.9 98.5 4.5 M M
27000 -28.4 -19.1 260 23 12 8.5 4.6 36.4 97.4 4.1 M M
26000 -25.8 -14.4 260 23 12 8.5 4.6 35.8 96.5 3.8 M M
25000 -23.3 -9.9 260 23 12 8.5 4.6 35.4 95.8 3.5 M M
24000 -20.8 -5.4 260 22 12 8.1 4.4 34.9 94.8 3.0 M M
23000 -18.4 -1.1 260 22 11 8.1 4.4 34.2 93.6 2.5 M M
22000 -15.9 3.4 255 22 11 8.3 4.5 33.7 92.6 2.1 M M
21000 -14.1 6.6 255 22 11 5.3 2.9 32.4 90.3 1.1 M M
20000 -12.5 9.5 250 22 11 5.3 2.9 30.8 87.5 -0.3 1323 6.7
19500 -11.7 10.9 250 22 11 5.3 2.9 30.1 86.2 -1.0 1284 6.5
19000 -10.9 12.4 250 22 11 4.7 2.6 29.4 84.9 -1.6 1246 6.3
18500 -10.4 13.3 245 22 11 3.9 2.1 28.4 83.0 -2.5 1215 6.2
18000 -9.9 14.2 235 21 11 3.6 2.0 27.4 81.3 -3.5 1184 6.0
17500 -9.0 15.8 235 20 10 8.9 4.9 26.7 80.1 -4.1 1143 5.8
17000 -7.7 18.1 230 18 9 8.7 4.8 26.6 79.8 -4.3 1090 5.5
16500 -6.4 20.5 230 16 8 9.0 5.0 26.4 79.5 -4.5 1037 5.3
16000 -5.0 23.0 235 14 7 9.3 5.1 26.3 79.3 -4.6 981 5.0
15500 -3.7 25.3 240 12 6 9.4 5.1 26.2 79.2 -4.7 924 4.7
15000 -2.3 27.9 245 10 5 9.3 5.1 26.2 79.1 -4.8 868 4.4
14500 -0.9 30.4 250 9 5 9.3 5.1 26.1 79.0 -4.9 811 4.1
14000 0.5 32.9 255 8 4 9.1 5.0 26.0 78.8 -5.1 755 3.8
13500 1.9 35.4 265 7 4 9.1 5.0 25.9 78.6 -5.2 700 3.6
13000 3.2 37.8 280 7 3 8.8 4.8 25.8 78.4 -5.3 645 3.3
12500 4.5 40.1 295 7 3 8.7 4.8 25.6 78.1 -5.5 591 3.0
12000 5.8 42.4 310 7 4 8.7 4.8 25.4 77.8 -5.7 537 2.7
11500 7.1 44.8 320 8 4 8.6 4.7 25.3 77.5 -5.9 484 2.5
11000 8.4 47.1 325 8 4 8.3 4.6 25.1 77.2 -6.1 431 2.2
10500 9.6 49.3 320 8 4 8.0 4.4 24.8 76.7 -6.4 379 1.9
10250 10.2 50.4 320 9 5 8.0 4.4 24.7 76.4 -6.6 354 1.8
10000 11.2 52.2 320 9 5 6.4 3.5 24.3 75.7 -7.0 308 1.6
9750 11.7 53.1 320 8 4 6.5 3.6 24.0 75.2 -7.3 286 1.5
9500 12.2 54.0 315 8 4 5.6 3.0 23.7 74.7 -7.6 265 1.3
9250 12.5 54.5 315 7 4 5.1 2.8 23.4 74.1 -7.9 246 1.2
9000 12.9 55.2 315 7 3 5.4 3.0 23.0 73.5 -8.3 226 1.1
8750 13.3 55.9 310 6 3 5.1 2.8 22.7 72.8 -8.7 207 1.1
8500 13.7 56.7 310 6 3 6.0 3.3 22.4 72.2 -9.0 188 1.0
8250 14.2 57.6 295 4 2 5.2 2.9 22.1 71.7 -9.3 167 0.8
8000 14.5 58.1 285 4 2 3.8 2.1 21.6 70.9 -9.8 150 0.8
7750 14.8 58.6 275 4 2 3.7 2.1 21.2 70.2 -10.2 134 0.7
7500 15.1 59.2 260 4 2 5.5 3.0 20.8 69.4 -10.7 117 0.6
7250 15.6 60.1 255 4 2 5.8 3.2 20.5 68.9 -11.0 96 0.5
7000 15.9 60.6 240 5 2 4.3 2.3 20.1 68.2 -11.4 78 0.4
6750 16.2 61.2 225 5 3 4.4 2.4 19.7 67.5 -11.8 61 0.3
6500 16.5 61.7 215 6 3 4.0 2.2 19.3 66.7 -12.3 44 0.2
6250 16.7 62.1 200 7 4 -2.7 -1.5 18.7 65.6 -12.9 33 0.2
6000 16.0 60.8 190 6 3 -13.6 -7.5 17.3 63.2 -14.3 45 0.2
5750 15.4 59.7 175 6 3 5.8 3.2 15.9 60.7 -15.7 57 0.3
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.1
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +8.1 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +1.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.8 -79.2 255 45 23 0.8 0.5 | -61.7 -79.1 250 46 24 0.9 0.5
45000 -60.3 -76.5 250 49 25 1.5 0.8 | -60.3 -76.5 250 52 27 1.0 0.5
40000 -58.1 -72.6 245 38 20 2.7 1.5 | -58.8 -73.8 245 41 21 2.1 1.1
38000 -54.2 -65.6 250 34 17 6.8 3.7 | -54.7 -66.5 245 38 20 7.2 4.3
36000 -50.1 -58.2 255 30 15 6.8 3.7 | -49.9 -57.8 250 35 18 7.2 4.0
34000 -45.2 -49.4 255 28 14 7.7 4.2 | -45.4 -49.7 245 33 17 7.6 4.2
32000 -40.6 -41.1 250 28 14 7.7 4.2 | -40.8 -41.4 245 32 17 7.6 4.2
30000 -35.9 -32.6 250 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -36.0 -32.8 245 32 17 8.3 4.6
29000 -33.5 -28.3 250 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -33.5 -28.3 245 32 17 8.3 4.6
28000 -31.1 -24.0 250 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -31.1 -24.0 245 32 17 8.3 4.6
27000 -28.6 -19.5 250 27 14 8.5 4.6 | -28.5 -19.3 245 32 16 8.5 4.7
26000 -26.1 -15.0 250 26 14 8.5 4.6 | -26.0 -14.8 245 31 16 8.5 4.7
25000 -23.6 -10.5 250 26 13 8.5 4.6 | -23.4 -10.1 245 30 15 8.5 4.7
24000 -21.1 -6.0 255 25 13 7.9 4.4 | -20.9 -5.6 245 29 15 7.9 4.3
23000 -18.7 -1.7 255 25 13 7.9 4.4 | -18.6 -1.5 245 28 14 7.9 4.3
22000 -15.8 3.6 255 24 12 8.1 4.4 | -15.6 3.9 240 27 14 8.0 4.4
21000 -13.6 7.5 250 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -13.4 7.9 240 25 13 7.1 3.9
20000 -11.5 11.3 250 22 12 7.0 3.8 | -11.3 11.7 240 24 12 7.1 3.9
19500 -10.5 13.1 250 22 11 7.0 3.8 | -10.3 13.5 240 23 12 7.1 3.9
19000 -9.5 14.9 250 21 11 4.2 2.3 | -9.2 15.4 235 22 11 6.3 3.5
18500 -9.1 15.6 245 20 10 3.0 1.7 | -8.3 17.1 230 21 11 5.9 3.3
18000 -8.7 16.3 240 18 9 3.2 1.7 | -7.5 18.5 230 20 10 5.9 3.2
17500 -8.0 17.6 230 18 9 6.6 3.6 | -6.6 20.1 225 19 10 6.1 3.4
17000 -7.1 19.2 225 18 9 6.3 3.5 | -5.7 21.7 220 19 10 6.1 3.4
16500 -6.2 20.8 215 18 9 8.2 4.5 | -4.8 23.4 210 18 9 6.6 3.6
16000 -4.8 23.4 215 17 9 8.8 4.8 | -3.8 25.2 205 18 10 6.9 3.8
15500 -3.5 25.7 210 17 9 8.9 4.9 | -2.8 27.0 200 19 10 7.2 4.0
15000 -2.2 28.0 210 16 8 8.9 4.9 | -1.7 28.9 200 19 10 8.1 4.4
14500 -0.8 30.6 210 15 8 8.9 4.9 | -0.5 31.1 195 20 10 8.0 4.4
14000 0.5 32.9 210 13 7 9.1 5.0 | 0.7 33.3 190 20 10 8.3 4.6
13500 1.9 35.4 205 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 1.9 35.4 190 19 10 8.4 4.6
13000 3.2 37.8 205 10 5 8.8 4.8 | 3.1 37.6 190 18 9 7.7 4.2
12500 4.5 40.1 200 9 5 8.8 4.9 | 4.3 39.7 195 16 8 7.6 4.2
12000 5.8 42.4 200 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 5.4 41.7 200 15 8 8.7 4.8
11500 7.0 44.6 200 7 4 8.7 4.8 | 6.8 44.2 200 14 7 9.0 4.9
11000 8.3 46.9 200 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 8.1 46.6 205 13 7 9.1 5.0
10500 9.6 49.3 200 5 3 8.4 4.6 | 9.5 49.1 205 13 7 9.1 5.0
10250 10.2 50.4 205 5 2 8.0 4.4 | 10.1 50.2 205 13 7 9.1 5.0
10000 10.8 51.4 210 4 2 7.3 4.0 | 10.8 51.4 205 13 6 9.4 5.2
9750 11.3 52.3 210 4 2 6.8 3.7 | 11.5 52.7 210 12 6 9.7 5.3
9500 11.8 53.2 210 3 2 7.1 3.9 | 12.2 54.0 210 12 6 9.4 5.1
9250 12.3 54.1 215 3 2 6.3 3.5 | 12.9 55.2 210 12 6 8.9 4.9
9000 12.7 54.9 220 3 2 4.4 2.4 | 13.6 56.5 210 12 6 9.1 5.0
8750 13.3 55.9 215 3 2 3.6 2.0 | 14.3 57.7 210 12 6 9.4 5.1
8500 13.5 56.3 215 3 2 4.8 2.7 | 15.7 60.3 215 11 6 10.2 5.6
8250 13.9 57.0 205 4 2 4.5 2.5 | 16.5 61.7 215 11 6 10.6 5.8
8000 14.2 57.6 205 5 3 3.1 1.7 | 17.2 63.0 215 11 6 9.7 5.3
7750 14.4 57.9 200 6 3 2.9 1.6 | 17.9 64.2 215 11 6 10.0 5.5
7500 14.6 58.3 200 6 3 5.1 2.8 | 18.7 65.7 215 11 6 9.6 5.3
7250 15.2 59.4 205 7 3 8.6 4.7 | 19.4 66.9 215 11 6 10.0 5.5
7000 15.8 60.4 205 7 4 8.7 4.8 | 20.2 68.4 220 11 5 10.5 5.8
6750 16.5 61.7 205 7 4 9.0 4.9 | 20.9 69.6 220 10 5 10.4 5.7
6500 17.2 63.0 205 7 4 9.9 5.5 | 21.7 71.1 220 10 5 10.7 5.9
6250 18.0 64.4 205 7 4 13.6 7.5 | 22.7 72.9 220 10 5 16.6 9.1
6000 19.2 66.6 205 7 4 18.7 10.2 | 24.3 75.7 220 9 5 25.8 14.2
5750 20.4 68.7 205 6 3 10.0 5.5 | 25.9 78.6 225 9 5 9.7 5.3
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.4
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +6.3 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.9 -79.4 245 49 25 1.3 0.7 | -60.9 -77.6 250 49 25 1.3 0.7
45000 -59.9 -75.8 250 53 27 1.4 0.8 | -59.0 -74.2 250 53 27 1.0 0.5
40000 -57.9 -72.2 245 47 24 2.2 1.2 | -57.5 -71.5 245 51 26 2.4 1.3
38000 -54.2 -65.6 245 43 22 6.5 3.6 | -54.0 -65.2 240 46 24 6.1 3.4
36000 -50.3 -58.5 240 39 20 6.5 3.6 | -50.3 -58.5 240 41 21 6.1 3.4
34000 -45.5 -49.9 240 37 19 7.7 4.2 | -45.9 -50.6 240 38 19 8.1 4.5
32000 -40.9 -41.6 245 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -41.0 -41.8 240 37 19 8.1 4.5
30000 -36.1 -33.0 245 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -36.1 -33.0 240 35 18 8.1 4.4
29000 -33.7 -28.7 240 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -33.7 -28.7 240 34 17 8.1 4.4
28000 -31.2 -24.2 240 32 17 8.2 4.5 | -31.3 -24.3 240 33 17 8.1 4.5
27000 -28.7 -19.7 240 31 16 8.6 4.7 | -28.2 -18.8 245 32 16 8.2 4.5
26000 -26.1 -15.0 240 30 15 8.6 4.7 | -25.7 -14.3 245 31 16 8.2 4.5
25000 -23.6 -10.5 240 29 15 8.6 4.7 | -23.2 -9.8 245 31 16 8.2 4.5
24000 -21.1 -6.0 240 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -20.9 -5.6 245 30 15 7.5 4.1
23000 -18.7 -1.7 240 26 13 8.0 4.4 | -18.7 -1.7 245 29 15 7.4 4.1
22000 -15.7 3.7 240 24 12 8.1 4.4 | -16.5 2.3 245 28 15 7.5 4.1
21000 -13.4 7.9 240 23 12 7.6 4.2 | -14.5 5.9 245 27 14 6.1 3.3
20000 -11.1 12.0 240 23 12 7.6 4.2 | -12.7 9.1 240 27 14 6.1 3.4
19500 -9.9 14.2 240 23 12 7.6 4.2 | -11.9 10.6 240 26 14 6.2 3.4
19000 -8.8 16.2 240 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -11.0 12.2 240 26 13 7.0 3.9
18500 -7.9 17.8 240 23 12 6.5 3.6 | -9.8 14.4 235 26 13 8.4 4.6
18000 -6.9 19.6 240 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -8.5 16.7 235 25 13 8.3 4.6
17500 -6.2 20.8 235 22 11 3.2 1.8 | -7.2 19.0 235 25 13 9.4 5.2
17000 -5.7 21.7 230 19 10 3.7 2.0 | -5.8 21.6 235 24 13 9.5 5.2
16500 -5.2 22.6 225 17 9 6.6 3.6 | -4.4 24.1 230 24 12 9.5 5.2
16000 -4.0 24.8 220 16 8 8.0 4.4 | -2.9 26.8 230 23 12 9.6 5.2
15500 -2.8 27.0 220 16 8 8.3 4.6 | -1.5 29.3 230 22 12 9.6 5.2
15000 -1.5 29.3 220 16 8 9.4 5.2 | -0.1 31.8 225 22 11 9.6 5.3
14500 -0.1 31.8 215 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 1.4 34.5 225 21 11 9.6 5.3
14000 1.4 34.5 215 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 2.8 37.0 225 20 10 9.6 5.2
13500 2.8 37.0 215 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 4.3 39.7 225 20 10 9.6 5.2
13000 4.3 39.7 215 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 5.7 42.3 220 19 10 9.6 5.3
12500 5.7 42.3 215 15 8 9.4 5.2 | 7.2 45.0 220 19 10 9.7 5.3
12000 7.1 44.8 215 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 8.6 47.5 215 18 9 9.6 5.3
11500 8.5 47.3 215 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 10.0 50.0 215 18 9 9.6 5.3
11000 10.0 50.0 215 15 8 9.9 5.5 | 11.5 52.7 215 17 9 10.2 5.6
10500 11.4 52.5 210 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 13.0 55.4 210 17 9 9.6 5.2
10250 12.1 53.8 210 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 13.7 56.7 210 17 9 9.3 5.1
10000 12.8 55.0 210 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 14.4 57.9 210 16 8 9.7 5.3
9750 13.6 56.5 210 15 8 10.2 5.6 | 15.2 59.4 210 16 8 10.3 5.7
9500 14.3 57.7 210 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 16.6 61.9 205 16 8 8.9 4.9
9250 15.0 59.0 210 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 17.3 63.1 205 16 8 9.2 5.1
9000 15.7 60.3 210 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 18.0 64.4 205 15 8 9.7 5.3
8750 16.5 61.7 210 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 18.8 65.8 200 15 8 9.6 5.3
8500 17.9 64.2 205 15 8 10.2 5.6 | 19.5 67.1 200 15 8 10.0 5.5
8250 18.7 65.7 205 15 8 10.2 5.6 | 20.2 68.4 200 15 8 10.0 5.5
8000 19.4 66.9 205 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 21.0 69.8 195 15 8 9.7 5.3
7750 20.1 68.2 205 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 21.7 71.1 195 15 8 9.8 5.4
7500 20.9 69.6 205 15 8 10.7 5.9 | 22.4 72.3 195 14 7 9.4 5.2
7250 21.7 71.1 205 15 7 10.9 6.0 | 23.1 73.6 190 14 7 9.4 5.2
7000 22.5 72.5 205 14 7 10.1 5.5 | 23.9 75.0 190 14 7 10.0 5.5
6750 23.2 73.8 205 14 7 10.2 5.6 | 24.6 76.3 190 14 7 9.5 5.2
6500 24.0 75.2 205 14 7 10.6 5.8 | 25.3 77.5 185 14 7 10.8 5.9
6250 25.0 77.0 200 14 7 17.6 9.7 | 26.3 79.3 185 13 7 13.7 7.5
6000 26.7 80.1 200 13 7 27.5 15.1 | 27.3 81.1 185 12 6 14.8 8.1
5750 28.4 83.1 200 12 6 10.5 5.8 | 28.4 83.1 180 11 6 13.8 7.6
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Saturday May 16 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, May 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 71.9 F/22.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1330 ft/min (6.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20514 ft MSL (14058 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 84.0 F/29.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18267 ft MSL (11812 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/17....... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:58:23 / 20:03:10 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 4 min 47 sec (844 min 47 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:47 MDT... 73.63 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14231 ft MSL (7775 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21789 ft MSL (15333 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 21483 ft MSL (15027 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.4
K index......................... +13.6
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.3 -78.3 255 44 23 0.8 0.4 87.5 189.5 34.5 M M
45000 -59.9 -75.8 250 47 24 1.3 0.7 65.8 150.5 23.2 M M
40000 -57.9 -72.2 265 33 17 3.0 1.7 46.8 116.3 12.1 M M
38000 -54.0 -65.2 265 33 17 6.8 3.7 43.6 110.5 10.2 M M
36000 -49.9 -57.8 265 32 17 6.8 3.7 41.2 106.2 8.8 M M
34000 -45.6 -50.1 265 32 16 7.4 4.1 39.0 102.3 7.4 M M
32000 -41.2 -42.2 260 31 16 7.4 4.1 37.2 98.9 6.2 M M
30000 -36.5 -33.7 260 30 16 8.0 4.4 35.6 96.1 5.1 M M
29000 -34.1 -29.4 260 29 15 8.0 4.4 34.9 94.8 4.7 M M
28000 -31.1 -24.0 260 28 14 8.0 4.4 34.2 93.6 4.2 M M
27000 -28.7 -19.7 260 27 14 8.3 4.6 33.6 92.5 3.7 M M
26000 -26.2 -15.2 260 27 14 8.3 4.6 33.0 91.4 3.3 M M
25000 -23.7 -10.7 265 27 14 8.3 4.6 32.6 90.6 3.0 M M
24000 -21.2 -6.2 260 26 13 7.9 4.4 32.0 89.5 2.5 M M
23000 -18.8 -1.8 260 24 13 7.9 4.3 31.3 88.3 2.0 M M
22000 -16.5 2.3 260 23 12 8.0 4.4 30.7 87.2 1.5 M M
21000 -14.5 5.9 255 23 12 6.0 3.3 29.6 85.3 0.6 M M
20000 -12.7 9.1 255 25 13 6.0 3.3 28.3 82.9 -0.6 1287 6.5
19500 -11.8 10.8 250 26 14 5.9 3.3 27.6 81.7 -1.1 1245 6.3
19000 -10.9 12.4 250 27 14 5.3 2.9 27.0 80.7 -1.7 1203 6.1
18500 -10.2 13.6 250 27 14 4.2 2.3 26.1 79.0 -2.5 1170 5.9
18000 -9.7 14.5 245 26 13 4.2 2.3 25.2 77.3 -3.4 1138 5.8
17500 -8.9 16.0 245 24 12 7.5 4.1 24.5 76.1 -4.1 1100 5.6
17000 -7.8 18.0 245 20 10 7.7 4.2 24.1 75.4 -4.6 1053 5.3
16500 -6.7 19.9 250 16 8 8.6 4.7 23.8 74.8 -5.0 1006 5.1
16000 -5.3 22.5 255 15 8 9.6 5.3 23.7 74.7 -5.0 948 4.8
15500 -3.9 25.0 260 13 7 9.6 5.3 23.7 74.7 -5.1 890 4.5
15000 -2.4 27.7 265 12 6 9.5 5.2 23.7 74.7 -5.1 832 4.2
14500 -1.0 30.2 270 12 6 9.5 5.2 23.7 74.6 -5.2 775 3.9
14000 0.4 32.7 275 11 6 9.4 5.2 23.6 74.5 -5.3 718 3.6
13500 1.8 35.2 285 11 5 9.4 5.2 23.6 74.4 -5.4 661 3.4
13000 3.2 37.8 290 10 5 9.2 5.0 23.5 74.3 -5.4 604 3.1
12500 4.6 40.3 295 10 5 9.1 5.0 23.4 74.1 -5.6 548 2.8
12000 5.9 42.6 300 10 5 8.9 4.9 23.3 74.0 -5.7 492 2.5
11500 7.9 46.2 305 10 5 9.4 5.1 23.1 73.6 -5.9 410 2.1
11000 9.2 48.6 305 10 5 7.7 4.2 22.9 73.2 -6.2 357 1.8
10500 10.4 50.7 305 11 6 8.4 4.6 22.6 72.7 -6.5 308 1.6
10250 11.0 51.8 305 10 5 8.0 4.4 22.5 72.5 -6.6 281 1.4
10000 11.5 52.7 300 11 5 6.9 3.8 22.3 72.1 -6.8 258 1.3
9750 12.1 53.8 300 11 6 7.2 4.0 22.1 71.8 -7.0 234 1.2
9500 12.6 54.7 300 11 6 7.0 3.9 21.9 71.4 -7.2 211 1.1
9250 13.1 55.6 295 11 6 6.4 3.5 21.7 71.0 -7.5 188 1.0
9000 13.6 56.5 295 11 6 5.9 3.3 21.4 70.5 -7.8 168 0.9
8750 14.0 57.2 290 10 5 6.1 3.3 21.1 70.0 -8.1 147 0.7
8500 14.5 58.1 285 10 5 6.0 3.3 20.8 69.5 -8.4 126 0.6
8250 14.9 58.8 280 9 5 4.5 2.5 20.5 68.9 -8.7 106 0.5
8000 15.1 59.2 270 9 5 3.0 1.7 20.0 68.0 -9.2 91 0.5
7750 15.4 59.7 270 9 4 2.8 1.5 19.5 67.1 -9.7 77 0.4
7500 15.6 60.1 265 8 4 3.3 1.8 19.0 66.2 -10.3 63 0.3
7250 15.8 60.4 260 8 4 2.9 1.6 18.5 65.3 -10.8 48 0.2
7000 16.1 61.0 250 7 3 5.8 3.2 18.0 64.4 -11.3 32 0.2
6750 16.3 61.3 245 5 3 -8.5 -4.7 17.5 63.4 -11.9 20 0.1
6500 12.2 54.0 215 2 1 -99.0 -54.3 12.6 54.7 -16.7 135 0.7
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.7
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +10.8 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +9.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.0 -79.6 255 46 24 0.9 0.5 | -61.6 -78.9 250 48 25 1.1 0.6
45000 -60.4 -76.7 250 52 27 1.5 0.8 | -60.0 -76.0 250 56 29 0.5 0.3
40000 -58.1 -72.6 250 37 19 3.4 1.9 | -59.2 -74.6 245 46 24 2.5 1.4
38000 -54.1 -65.4 250 36 19 6.8 3.7 | -55.0 -67.0 245 44 23 7.3 4.0
36000 -50.0 -58.0 250 36 19 6.8 3.7 | -50.6 -59.1 245 42 21 7.3 4.0
34000 -45.7 -50.3 250 35 18 7.4 4.1 | -46.1 -51.0 245 39 20 7.5 4.1
32000 -41.3 -42.3 250 33 17 7.4 4.1 | -41.6 -42.9 245 37 19 7.5 4.1
30000 -36.6 -33.9 250 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -36.8 -34.2 245 35 18 8.4 4.6
29000 -33.5 -28.3 250 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -33.6 -28.5 245 34 18 8.4 4.6
28000 -31.1 -24.0 250 30 15 8.2 4.5 | -31.1 -24.0 245 34 17 8.4 4.6
27000 -28.6 -19.5 250 29 15 8.3 4.6 | -28.6 -19.5 245 33 17 8.4 4.6
26000 -26.1 -15.0 250 28 15 8.3 4.6 | -26.1 -15.0 245 31 16 8.4 4.6
25000 -23.6 -10.5 255 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -23.5 -10.3 245 30 15 8.4 4.6
24000 -21.1 -6.0 255 26 14 8.2 4.5 | -21.0 -5.8 245 29 15 8.3 4.6
23000 -18.7 -1.7 255 25 13 8.2 4.5 | -18.5 -1.3 245 28 14 8.3 4.6
22000 -16.2 2.8 255 24 13 8.3 4.5 | -16.0 3.2 240 27 14 8.4 4.6
21000 -14.0 6.8 255 24 12 7.0 3.8 | -13.8 7.2 240 25 13 6.9 3.8
20000 -11.9 10.6 255 24 12 7.0 3.8 | -11.7 10.9 240 23 12 6.8 3.8
19500 -10.8 12.6 255 24 12 6.9 3.8 | -10.7 12.7 240 22 11 6.8 3.7
19000 -9.8 14.4 255 24 13 5.1 2.8 | -9.7 14.5 240 21 11 5.8 3.2
18500 -9.4 15.1 255 24 12 2.5 1.4 | -9.0 15.8 240 21 11 4.5 2.4
18000 -9.1 15.6 250 23 12 2.2 1.2 | -8.4 16.9 235 20 10 4.4 2.4
17500 -8.5 16.7 245 22 11 6.8 3.8 | -7.7 18.1 235 19 10 6.0 3.3
17000 -7.5 18.5 240 21 11 6.9 3.8 | -6.8 19.8 230 19 10 6.1 3.4
16500 -6.6 20.1 235 20 10 8.1 4.4 | -6.0 21.2 225 19 10 7.2 4.0
16000 -5.2 22.6 235 19 10 9.2 5.0 | -4.8 23.4 225 18 9 8.1 4.4
15500 -3.8 25.2 235 17 9 9.3 5.1 | -3.6 25.5 220 18 9 8.2 4.5
15000 -2.4 27.7 235 16 8 9.5 5.2 | -2.3 27.9 220 18 9 8.8 4.8
14500 -1.0 30.2 235 14 7 9.6 5.2 | -1.0 30.2 220 17 9 8.7 4.8
14000 0.4 32.7 235 13 7 9.0 4.9 | 0.3 32.5 220 16 8 9.2 5.0
13500 1.7 35.1 235 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 1.7 35.1 220 15 8 9.2 5.0
13000 3.1 37.6 240 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 3.1 37.6 220 15 8 9.4 5.2
12500 4.4 39.9 240 9 4 9.1 5.0 | 4.5 40.1 220 14 7 9.5 5.2
12000 6.4 43.5 250 7 4 8.7 4.8 | 5.9 42.6 220 14 7 9.3 5.1
11500 7.7 45.9 255 7 3 8.7 4.8 | 8.0 46.4 220 13 7 10.1 5.5
11000 9.0 48.2 260 6 3 8.0 4.4 | 9.5 49.1 225 12 6 9.4 5.2
10500 10.2 50.4 270 7 3 7.9 4.3 | 10.9 51.6 225 12 6 9.5 5.2
10250 10.7 51.3 270 6 3 6.6 3.6 | 11.6 52.9 225 12 6 9.8 5.4
10000 11.2 52.2 275 6 3 5.9 3.2 | 12.4 54.3 225 12 6 9.9 5.4
9750 11.6 52.9 280 7 3 6.2 3.4 | 13.1 55.6 225 12 6 10.1 5.5
9500 12.1 53.8 280 7 4 5.7 3.1 | 13.8 56.8 225 12 6 9.2 5.0
9250 12.5 54.5 280 7 4 4.9 2.7 | 14.5 58.1 225 11 6 9.3 5.1
9000 12.8 55.0 280 7 4 4.7 2.6 | 15.3 59.5 230 11 6 10.4 5.7
8750 13.2 55.8 280 7 4 4.9 2.7 | 16.0 60.8 230 11 6 10.1 5.5
8500 13.5 56.3 280 7 4 4.5 2.5 | 16.8 62.2 230 11 6 10.1 5.6
8250 13.9 57.0 275 7 3 5.3 2.9 | 17.5 63.5 230 11 6 10.3 5.6
8000 14.4 57.9 270 6 3 7.9 4.3 | 18.3 64.9 230 11 6 10.6 5.8
7750 15.0 59.0 270 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 19.1 66.4 230 11 6 10.7 5.9
7500 15.6 60.1 270 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 19.9 67.8 230 11 6 10.5 5.7
7250 16.4 61.5 265 6 3 10.1 5.5 | 20.7 69.3 235 11 6 10.2 5.6
7000 17.1 62.8 265 6 3 9.0 5.0 | 21.6 70.9 235 11 6 17.7 9.7
6750 17.8 64.0 265 6 3 11.8 6.5 | 23.4 74.1 235 11 6 29.6 16.2
6500 19.5 67.1 260 5 3 42.0 23.0 | 25.2 77.4 235 10 5 8.6 4.7
05/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 05/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +7.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +7.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.1 -78.0 245 49 25 1.0 0.5 | -60.6 -77.1 250 50 26 1.1 0.6
45000 -59.7 -75.5 250 57 29 0.6 0.3 | -59.0 -74.2 250 55 28 0.8 0.4
40000 -58.7 -73.7 245 50 26 2.3 1.3 | -57.9 -72.2 245 55 28 1.8 1.0
38000 -54.6 -66.3 245 47 24 7.1 3.9 | -54.3 -65.7 245 52 27 6.2 3.4
36000 -50.4 -58.7 240 45 23 7.1 3.9 | -50.6 -59.1 240 48 25 6.2 3.4
34000 -46.0 -50.8 240 42 22 7.4 4.0 | -46.4 -51.5 240 44 23 7.8 4.3
32000 -41.6 -42.9 245 39 20 7.4 4.0 | -41.7 -43.1 240 40 21 7.8 4.3
30000 -36.8 -34.2 245 37 19 8.3 4.6 | -36.8 -34.2 240 37 19 8.2 4.5
29000 -33.7 -28.7 245 37 19 8.3 4.6 | -34.4 -29.9 240 36 19 8.2 4.5
28000 -31.2 -24.2 245 37 19 8.3 4.6 | -31.3 -24.3 240 34 18 8.2 4.5
27000 -28.7 -19.7 245 35 18 8.5 4.7 | -28.8 -19.8 240 34 17 8.4 4.6
26000 -26.1 -15.0 245 34 17 8.5 4.7 | -26.3 -15.3 240 33 17 8.4 4.6
25000 -23.6 -10.5 245 32 17 8.5 4.7 | -23.7 -10.7 240 32 16 8.4 4.6
24000 -21.1 -6.0 245 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -21.3 -6.3 240 31 16 7.9 4.3
23000 -18.7 -1.7 245 29 15 8.0 4.4 | -18.9 -2.0 240 29 15 7.9 4.3
22000 -16.3 2.7 240 27 14 8.0 4.4 | -16.6 2.1 245 27 14 7.9 4.3
21000 -14.2 6.4 240 25 13 6.7 3.7 | -14.4 6.1 245 25 13 6.7 3.7
20000 -12.2 10.0 235 24 12 6.7 3.7 | -12.5 9.5 245 24 12 6.7 3.7
19500 -11.2 11.8 230 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -11.5 11.3 245 23 12 6.8 3.7
19000 -10.2 13.6 225 22 11 6.6 3.6 | -10.5 13.1 245 22 11 6.7 3.7
18500 -9.3 15.3 225 21 11 6.3 3.5 | -9.6 14.7 240 21 11 6.4 3.5
18000 -8.3 17.1 220 19 10 6.4 3.5 | -8.7 16.3 235 19 10 6.2 3.4
17500 -7.4 18.7 215 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -7.6 18.3 230 18 9 8.7 4.8
17000 -6.3 20.7 210 18 9 7.6 4.2 | -6.3 20.7 230 18 9 9.0 4.9
16500 -5.2 22.6 210 17 9 8.4 4.6 | -4.9 23.2 230 17 9 9.2 5.0
16000 -3.8 25.2 210 17 9 9.4 5.2 | -3.5 25.7 230 17 9 9.5 5.2
15500 -2.4 27.7 205 17 9 9.5 5.2 | -2.1 28.2 230 17 9 9.5 5.2
15000 -0.9 30.4 205 17 9 9.5 5.2 | -0.6 30.9 225 17 9 10.0 5.5
14500 0.5 32.9 205 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 0.9 33.6 225 17 9 9.9 5.4
14000 1.9 35.4 205 17 9 9.6 5.2 | 2.3 36.1 225 17 9 9.6 5.3
13500 3.3 37.9 205 17 9 9.6 5.2 | 3.8 38.8 225 17 9 9.6 5.3
13000 4.8 40.6 205 17 9 9.7 5.3 | 5.2 41.4 225 17 9 9.6 5.3
12500 6.2 43.2 205 17 9 9.7 5.3 | 6.7 44.1 225 17 9 9.7 5.3
12000 8.4 47.1 210 18 9 9.4 5.1 | 8.9 48.0 225 16 8 10.0 5.5
11500 9.8 49.6 210 18 9 9.8 5.4 | 10.3 50.5 225 16 8 9.6 5.3
11000 11.3 52.3 215 18 9 9.3 5.1 | 11.8 53.2 225 16 8 9.7 5.3
10500 12.7 54.9 215 19 10 9.9 5.4 | 13.2 55.8 220 16 8 9.4 5.2
10250 13.4 56.1 215 19 10 10.3 5.7 | 13.9 57.0 225 16 8 9.5 5.2
10000 14.2 57.6 215 19 10 9.9 5.5 | 14.7 58.5 220 17 8 10.0 5.5
9750 14.9 58.8 220 19 10 10.1 5.5 | 15.4 59.7 220 17 9 10.2 5.6
9500 15.7 60.3 220 19 10 9.7 5.3 | 16.2 61.2 220 17 9 9.8 5.4
9250 16.4 61.5 220 20 10 9.6 5.3 | 16.9 62.4 220 17 9 9.2 5.1
9000 17.1 62.8 220 20 10 10.0 5.5 | 17.6 63.7 220 17 9 9.7 5.3
8750 17.9 64.2 225 20 10 10.0 5.5 | 18.3 64.9 220 17 9 10.0 5.5
8500 18.6 65.5 225 20 10 9.9 5.5 | 19.1 66.4 220 17 8 9.8 5.4
8250 19.4 66.9 225 20 11 10.7 5.9 | 19.8 67.6 220 16 8 10.3 5.7
8000 20.2 68.4 225 20 11 11.0 6.0 | 20.6 69.1 220 16 8 10.1 5.5
7750 21.0 69.8 225 20 10 10.4 5.7 | 21.3 70.3 220 16 8 9.5 5.2
7500 21.8 71.2 225 20 10 10.5 5.8 | 22.0 71.6 220 16 8 9.5 5.2
7250 22.6 72.7 230 20 10 10.9 6.0 | 22.8 73.0 220 16 8 10.1 5.5
7000 23.6 74.5 230 20 10 18.3 10.0 | 23.6 74.5 220 16 8 13.4 7.3
6750 25.4 77.7 230 19 10 29.2 16.0 | 24.8 76.6 220 14 7 17.0 9.3
6500 27.2 81.0 230 18 9 10.3 5.7 | 25.9 78.6 220 13 7 11.1 6.1
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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