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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0735 MDT Wednesday September 16 2026
This forecast is for Wednesday, September 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 75.5 F/24.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 149 ft/min (0.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10717 ft MSL (4395 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8746 ft MSL (2424 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 09/17..... Excellent
Remarks... Numerous showers and thunderstorms today.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:47:57 / 19:09:36 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 21 min 39 sec (741 min 39 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:58:46 MDT... 57.43 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15627 ft MSL (9305 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12722 ft MSL (6400 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12219 ft MSL (5897 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.0
K index......................... +31.2
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.1 -88.8 235 14 7 3.1 1.7 75.1 167.2 30.0 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 230 20 11 6.5 3.6 61.9 143.4 23.8 M M
40000 -50.1 -58.2 230 25 13 7.8 4.3 55.4 131.7 21.0 M M
38000 -45.5 -49.9 235 27 14 7.9 4.3 53.6 128.4 20.3 M M
36000 -40.8 -41.4 240 30 15 7.6 4.2 52.4 126.3 19.9 M M
34000 -36.4 -33.5 235 26 14 7.3 4.0 50.0 122.1 18.7 M M
32000 -31.5 -24.7 225 23 12 7.4 4.1 48.1 118.6 17.7 M M
30000 -27.1 -16.8 220 22 11 7.6 4.2 46.2 115.1 16.6 M M
29000 -24.8 -12.6 215 21 11 7.6 4.2 45.4 113.8 16.2 M M
28000 -22.7 -8.9 210 20 11 6.5 3.6 44.6 112.2 15.6 M M
27000 -20.7 -5.3 205 20 10 6.6 3.6 43.3 109.9 14.8 M M
26000 -18.8 -1.8 200 20 10 6.6 3.6 42.1 107.8 14.0 M M
25000 -16.9 1.6 195 19 10 6.6 3.6 41.1 105.9 13.2 M M
24000 -14.9 5.2 200 18 9 6.6 3.6 39.8 103.7 12.3 M M
23000 -13.0 8.6 200 17 9 6.6 3.6 38.7 101.6 11.4 M M
22000 -11.1 12.0 205 15 8 6.3 3.4 37.7 99.8 10.6 M M
21000 -9.3 15.3 210 15 8 6.0 3.3 36.2 97.2 9.5 M M
20000 -7.6 18.3 210 16 8 6.0 3.3 35.0 94.9 8.4 M M
19500 -6.7 19.9 215 16 8 6.0 3.3 34.4 93.8 7.9 M M
19000 -5.8 21.6 215 16 8 6.5 3.6 33.8 92.8 7.4 M M
18500 -4.9 23.2 215 17 8 6.5 3.5 33.2 91.8 6.9 M M
18000 -3.5 25.7 220 17 9 6.2 3.4 32.3 90.2 6.2 M M
17500 -2.6 27.3 220 17 9 6.2 3.4 31.7 89.1 5.6 M M
17000 -1.8 28.8 220 18 9 5.2 2.9 31.1 88.1 5.1 M M
16500 -1.1 30.0 220 18 9 4.7 2.6 30.3 86.5 4.3 M M
16000 -0.5 31.1 225 18 9 5.0 2.7 29.4 84.9 3.5 M M
15500 0.4 32.7 225 18 9 7.5 4.1 28.9 84.0 3.0 M M
15000 1.5 34.7 225 18 9 7.3 4.0 28.5 83.3 2.6 M M
14500 2.6 36.7 220 17 9 8.3 4.5 28.2 82.7 2.2 M M
14000 3.8 38.8 220 17 9 8.3 4.5 27.9 82.2 2.0 M M
13500 5.0 41.0 220 17 9 7.8 4.3 27.7 81.8 1.8 M M
13000 6.1 43.0 215 17 9 7.6 4.2 27.3 81.2 1.4 M M
12500 7.2 45.0 215 17 9 7.8 4.3 27.0 80.6 1.1 M M
12000 8.4 47.1 215 17 9 8.0 4.4 26.7 80.0 0.8 M M
11500 9.5 49.1 210 17 9 9.0 4.9 26.4 79.5 0.5 M M
11000 10.7 51.3 210 17 9 6.9 3.8 26.2 79.1 0.2 M M
10500 11.7 53.1 205 18 9 7.9 4.3 25.8 78.4 -0.2 329 1.7
10250 12.4 54.3 205 18 9 8.2 4.5 25.7 78.2 -0.3 303 1.5
10000 12.9 55.2 200 18 9 6.5 3.6 25.5 77.9 -0.5 280 1.4
9750 13.3 55.9 200 18 9 6.8 3.7 25.2 77.4 -0.8 259 1.3
9500 13.8 56.8 200 18 9 4.6 2.5 25.0 76.9 -1.0 237 1.2
9250 14.0 57.2 195 17 9 2.8 1.5 24.4 76.0 -1.6 224 1.1
9000 14.2 57.6 195 16 8 1.7 0.9 23.9 75.0 -2.1 212 1.1
8750 14.1 57.4 190 15 8 -0.0 -0.0 23.2 73.7 -2.9 205 1.0
8500 14.1 57.4 185 13 7 -2.5 -1.4 22.4 72.3 -3.7 200 1.0
8250 13.6 56.5 180 12 6 -4.8 -2.6 21.3 70.3 -4.9 205 1.0
8000 13.2 55.8 175 10 5 -4.5 -2.5 20.2 68.4 -6.0 210 1.1
7750 12.8 55.0 170 9 5 -2.5 -1.4 19.2 66.5 -7.1 215 1.1
7500 12.8 55.0 160 8 4 3.6 2.0 18.5 65.3 -7.9 208 1.1
7250 13.2 55.8 160 7 4 5.9 3.2 18.1 64.7 -8.3 189 1.0
7000 13.6 56.5 155 7 3 5.4 3.0 17.8 64.1 -8.6 170 0.9
6750 14.0 57.2 150 6 3 7.3 4.0 17.6 63.6 -8.9 149 0.8
6500 14.6 58.3 150 5 3 9.1 5.0 17.5 63.4 -9.1 124 0.6
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +135.5 LI... -1.6 | CAPE... +582.6 LI... -3.5
CINH... -107.0 K Index... +28.3 | CINH... -4.3 K Index... +29.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.0 -88.6 235 13 7 3.4 1.9 | -66.6 -87.9 220 13 7 2.3 1.2
45000 -60.3 -76.5 230 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -60.7 -77.3 225 22 11 6.7 3.7
40000 -50.5 -58.9 230 24 12 8.1 4.5 | -50.4 -58.7 220 25 13 7.6 4.1
38000 -45.6 -50.1 235 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -45.9 -50.6 225 22 12 7.6 4.1
36000 -40.7 -41.3 240 22 12 7.7 4.2 | -40.8 -41.4 235 20 10 8.3 4.6
34000 -35.9 -32.6 230 19 10 7.2 4.0 | -35.8 -32.4 230 17 9 8.3 4.5
32000 -31.6 -24.9 220 18 9 7.4 4.1 | -30.9 -23.6 220 15 8 7.8 4.3
30000 -27.1 -16.8 210 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -26.5 -15.7 210 13 7 7.5 4.1
29000 -24.9 -12.8 205 17 9 7.6 4.1 | -24.3 -11.7 200 13 7 7.5 4.1
28000 -22.7 -8.9 200 17 9 6.9 3.8 | -22.1 -7.8 200 13 7 6.5 3.6
27000 -20.7 -5.3 200 17 9 6.9 3.8 | -20.2 -4.4 200 15 8 6.6 3.6
26000 -18.6 -1.5 200 18 9 6.9 3.8 | -18.3 -0.9 200 16 8 6.6 3.6
25000 -16.6 2.1 200 18 9 6.5 3.5 | -16.4 2.5 200 18 9 6.2 3.4
24000 -14.7 5.5 200 18 9 6.1 3.4 | -14.6 5.7 195 19 10 6.0 3.3
23000 -12.9 8.8 200 18 9 6.1 3.4 | -12.8 9.0 195 19 10 6.1 3.3
22000 -11.1 12.0 200 18 9 6.0 3.3 | -11.1 12.0 190 20 10 5.7 3.1
21000 -9.4 15.1 200 18 9 5.9 3.2 | -9.5 14.9 190 20 11 5.5 3.0
20000 -7.6 18.3 200 19 10 5.9 3.2 | -7.4 18.7 185 21 11 5.5 3.0
19500 -6.8 19.8 200 19 10 5.9 3.3 | -6.6 20.1 185 21 11 6.0 3.3
19000 -5.4 22.3 200 18 9 6.1 3.4 | -5.7 21.7 185 21 11 6.2 3.4
18500 -4.6 23.7 200 18 9 6.1 3.4 | -4.8 23.4 185 20 10 6.2 3.4
18000 -3.7 25.3 205 17 9 6.3 3.4 | -3.9 25.0 185 20 10 6.6 3.6
17500 -2.8 27.0 205 17 9 6.3 3.4 | -2.9 26.8 185 21 11 6.6 3.6
17000 -1.9 28.6 210 17 9 6.2 3.4 | -2.0 28.4 185 21 11 6.7 3.7
16500 -1.1 30.0 210 17 9 6.3 3.4 | -1.0 30.2 185 21 11 6.8 3.7
16000 -0.2 31.6 215 17 9 6.4 3.5 | -0.0 32.0 190 21 11 6.8 3.7
15500 0.7 33.3 215 17 9 6.6 3.6 | 1.0 33.8 190 21 11 6.9 3.8
15000 1.6 34.9 215 17 9 6.5 3.6 | 2.0 35.6 190 21 11 6.9 3.8
14500 2.6 36.7 220 17 9 7.5 4.1 | 3.0 37.4 190 20 11 7.2 3.9
14000 3.7 38.7 220 17 9 7.4 4.1 | 4.0 39.2 190 20 10 7.1 3.9
13500 4.8 40.6 220 17 9 7.7 4.2 | 5.0 41.0 190 19 10 7.5 4.1
13000 5.9 42.6 220 17 9 7.7 4.3 | 6.1 43.0 195 18 9 7.6 4.2
12500 7.0 44.6 220 17 9 7.8 4.3 | 7.2 45.0 195 17 9 7.2 4.0
12000 8.1 46.6 215 17 9 7.8 4.3 | 8.2 46.8 195 17 9 7.1 3.9
11500 9.3 48.7 215 17 9 8.6 4.7 | 9.2 48.6 200 16 8 7.3 4.0
11000 10.5 50.9 215 18 9 7.4 4.1 | 10.0 50.0 200 15 8 4.7 2.6
10500 11.6 52.9 215 18 9 8.2 4.5 | 10.6 51.1 200 13 7 6.5 3.6
10250 12.2 54.0 210 18 9 8.3 4.5 | 11.1 52.0 200 13 7 7.6 4.1
10000 12.7 54.9 210 18 9 6.7 3.7 | 11.6 52.9 200 12 6 6.7 3.7
9750 13.2 55.8 210 18 9 6.5 3.6 | 12.1 53.8 195 12 6 6.9 3.8
9500 13.6 56.5 210 17 9 4.7 2.6 | 12.6 54.7 195 12 6 8.7 4.8
9250 13.8 56.8 205 16 8 3.8 2.1 | 13.3 55.9 195 11 6 10.1 5.5
9000 14.1 57.4 205 16 8 2.5 1.4 | 14.0 57.2 195 11 6 8.9 4.9
8750 14.1 57.4 200 14 7 0.1 0.0 | 14.6 58.3 195 11 6 8.5 4.7
8500 14.0 57.2 200 13 7 -1.9 -1.1 | 15.3 59.5 190 11 6 9.6 5.3
8250 13.7 56.7 195 11 6 -2.9 -1.6 | 16.0 60.8 190 11 6 10.0 5.5
8000 13.4 56.1 190 9 5 -3.9 -2.1 | 16.8 62.2 190 11 5 9.9 5.5
7750 13.1 55.6 180 7 4 -0.1 -0.0 | 17.5 63.5 190 10 5 10.3 5.6
7500 13.4 56.1 175 6 3 7.5 4.1 | 18.3 64.9 190 10 5 10.2 5.6
7250 14.0 57.2 170 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 19.0 66.2 190 10 5 10.7 5.8
7000 14.6 58.3 165 5 3 8.1 4.5 | 19.8 67.6 190 10 5 9.1 5.0
6750 15.3 59.5 160 5 3 10.9 6.0 | 20.6 69.1 185 10 5 14.1 7.7
6500 16.3 61.3 160 5 2 16.8 9.2 | 22.1 71.8 185 9 5 27.0 14.8
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +469.5 LI... -2.8 | CAPE... +0.9 LI... -2.0
CINH... -1.9 K Index... +32.3 | CINH... -19.3 K Index... +29.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.2 -89.0 225 13 7 2.8 1.5 | -67.8 -90.0 240 17 9 1.9 1.0
45000 -60.8 -77.4 245 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -61.8 -79.2 245 23 12 7.3 4.0
40000 -50.8 -59.4 230 23 12 8.0 4.4 | -50.3 -58.5 230 24 13 8.9 4.9
38000 -46.0 -50.8 235 21 11 8.0 4.4 | -45.0 -49.0 225 24 12 8.9 4.9
36000 -40.6 -41.1 240 19 10 8.1 4.4 | -39.1 -38.4 225 22 11 7.5 4.1
34000 -35.8 -32.4 225 17 9 8.1 4.4 | -34.5 -30.1 225 18 9 7.7 4.2
32000 -31.0 -23.8 210 16 8 7.9 4.3 | -30.0 -22.0 225 14 7 7.5 4.1
30000 -26.3 -15.3 200 16 8 7.8 4.3 | -25.5 -13.9 220 13 6 7.5 4.1
29000 -24.0 -11.2 195 16 8 7.8 4.3 | -23.3 -9.9 215 12 6 7.5 4.1
28000 -21.7 -7.1 190 17 9 7.0 3.8 | -21.2 -6.2 215 11 6 6.4 3.5
27000 -19.6 -3.3 195 18 9 7.1 3.9 | -19.3 -2.7 215 12 6 6.4 3.5
26000 -17.6 0.3 195 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -17.4 0.7 210 13 7 6.4 3.5
25000 -15.5 4.1 195 20 11 6.0 3.3 | -15.5 4.1 210 14 7 6.0 3.3
24000 -13.9 7.0 195 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -13.8 7.2 210 14 7 5.7 3.1
23000 -12.4 9.7 195 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -12.1 10.2 205 14 7 5.8 3.2
22000 -10.8 12.6 195 21 11 5.8 3.2 | -10.5 13.1 205 15 8 5.8 3.2
21000 -9.0 15.8 195 22 11 6.2 3.4 | -8.8 16.2 205 15 8 5.9 3.2
20000 -6.8 19.8 195 23 12 6.3 3.4 | -7.1 19.2 205 15 8 5.9 3.2
19500 -5.9 21.4 195 23 12 7.3 4.0 | -5.8 21.6 200 15 8 6.0 3.3
19000 -4.8 23.4 195 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -4.9 23.2 205 15 8 6.1 3.4
18500 -3.7 25.3 200 22 12 7.9 4.3 | -4.1 24.6 205 15 8 6.1 3.4
18000 -2.7 27.1 200 22 11 5.9 3.3 | -3.2 26.2 205 14 7 5.8 3.2
17500 -1.8 28.8 200 21 11 6.1 3.4 | -2.4 27.7 205 14 7 5.8 3.2
17000 -1.0 30.2 195 20 10 5.9 3.2 | -1.5 29.3 205 14 7 5.6 3.1
16500 -0.2 31.6 195 19 10 5.8 3.2 | -0.8 30.6 210 14 7 5.5 3.0
16000 0.6 33.1 195 18 9 5.9 3.2 | 0.0 32.0 210 13 7 5.6 3.1
15500 1.5 34.7 190 17 9 6.4 3.5 | 0.9 33.6 215 13 7 6.3 3.5
15000 2.4 36.3 190 17 9 6.4 3.5 | 1.8 35.2 215 13 7 6.1 3.4
14500 3.3 37.9 185 16 8 5.9 3.2 | 2.7 36.9 215 13 6 8.0 4.4
14000 4.1 39.4 185 16 8 5.9 3.3 | 3.8 38.8 220 12 6 7.9 4.3
13500 5.0 41.0 185 16 8 6.7 3.7 | 5.0 41.0 220 12 6 7.8 4.3
13000 6.0 42.8 185 16 8 6.8 3.7 | 6.1 43.0 220 13 6 7.8 4.3
12500 7.0 44.6 185 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 7.2 45.0 220 13 7 8.2 4.5
12000 8.2 46.8 185 15 8 8.3 4.6 | 8.4 47.1 215 13 7 8.5 4.6
11500 9.4 48.9 185 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 9.6 49.3 215 13 7 8.5 4.7
11000 10.7 51.3 185 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 10.6 51.1 205 14 7 5.6 3.1
10500 12.1 53.8 185 15 8 9.9 5.4 | 11.4 52.5 200 14 7 7.1 3.9
10250 12.9 55.2 190 15 8 10.4 5.7 | 12.0 53.6 190 16 8 8.2 4.5
10000 13.6 56.5 190 15 7 9.2 5.0 | 12.6 54.7 190 17 9 7.1 3.9
9750 14.2 57.6 190 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 13.1 55.6 185 18 9 6.9 3.8
9500 14.9 58.8 190 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 13.6 56.5 180 19 10 7.6 4.2
9250 15.7 60.3 190 14 7 10.0 5.5 | 14.2 57.6 175 19 10 8.4 4.6
9000 16.4 61.5 195 14 7 9.6 5.2 | 14.8 58.6 175 20 10 7.8 4.3
8750 17.1 62.8 195 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 15.4 59.7 170 21 11 7.2 4.0
8500 17.8 64.0 195 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 15.9 60.6 170 22 11 5.7 3.1
8250 18.5 65.3 200 13 7 10.0 5.5 | 16.2 61.2 165 23 12 4.5 2.5
8000 19.3 66.7 200 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 16.6 61.9 165 24 12 5.1 2.8
7750 20.0 68.0 200 13 7 9.1 5.0 | 16.9 62.4 160 25 13 2.5 1.4
7500 20.6 69.1 205 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 16.9 62.4 160 26 13 -2.4 -1.3
7250 21.4 70.5 205 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 16.6 61.9 155 27 14 -3.1 -1.7
7000 22.1 71.8 210 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 16.3 61.3 155 28 14 -5.6 -3.1
6750 22.8 73.0 215 11 6 10.2 5.6 | 15.9 60.6 150 29 15 -1.3 -0.7
6500 23.6 74.5 215 10 5 12.3 6.8 | 16.3 61.3 150 25 13 15.3 8.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0735 MDT Wednesday September 16 2026
This forecast is for Wednesday, September 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 75.7 F/24.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 299 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 9796 ft MSL (4119 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1300 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8254 ft MSL (2577 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 09/17..... Excellent
Remarks... Numerous showers and thunderstorms today.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:50:25 / 19:12:06 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 21 min 41 sec (741 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:01:16 MDT... 57.37 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15536 ft MSL (9859 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12156 ft MSL (6479 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11154 ft MSL (5477 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.5
K index......................... +32.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.0 -88.6 245 17 9 3.6 2.0 77.6 171.6 31.3 M M
45000 -60.1 -76.2 245 24 12 5.8 3.2 64.6 148.2 25.3 M M
40000 -50.8 -59.4 240 33 17 8.0 4.4 56.7 134.1 21.8 M M
38000 -46.0 -50.8 235 33 17 8.0 4.4 55.1 131.1 21.2 M M
36000 -41.2 -42.2 230 34 17 7.9 4.3 54.0 129.2 20.9 M M
34000 -36.2 -33.2 225 29 15 7.6 4.2 51.7 125.1 19.8 M M
32000 -31.7 -25.1 220 24 13 7.6 4.2 50.3 122.5 19.2 M M
30000 -27.2 -17.0 210 22 11 7.5 4.1 48.3 118.9 18.1 M M
29000 -25.0 -13.0 205 21 11 7.6 4.1 47.5 117.5 17.7 M M
28000 -22.8 -9.0 205 20 10 6.8 3.7 46.7 116.0 17.2 M M
27000 -20.8 -5.4 205 19 10 6.9 3.8 45.5 113.8 16.4 M M
26000 -18.8 -1.8 205 19 10 6.9 3.8 44.4 111.9 15.7 M M
25000 -16.8 1.8 205 18 9 6.6 3.6 43.5 110.2 15.0 M M
24000 -15.0 5.0 210 17 9 6.2 3.4 42.1 107.7 14.0 M M
23000 -13.2 8.2 210 16 8 6.2 3.4 40.8 105.4 13.1 M M
22000 -10.9 12.4 210 14 7 6.3 3.5 39.3 102.7 11.9 M M
21000 -9.1 15.6 215 14 7 6.3 3.5 38.0 100.3 10.9 M M
20000 -7.2 19.0 215 14 7 6.3 3.5 36.8 98.2 10.0 M M
19500 -6.3 20.7 220 14 7 6.3 3.5 36.3 97.3 9.6 M M
19000 -5.4 22.3 220 15 8 6.4 3.5 35.7 96.2 9.1 M M
18500 -4.5 23.9 220 15 8 6.4 3.5 35.1 95.2 8.6 M M
18000 -3.6 25.5 220 15 8 6.1 3.4 34.5 94.1 8.1 M M
17500 -2.7 27.1 220 16 8 6.1 3.3 33.9 93.0 7.5 M M
17000 -1.8 28.8 220 16 8 5.3 2.9 33.3 91.9 7.0 M M
16500 -1.3 29.7 220 16 8 4.0 2.2 32.3 90.2 6.1 M M
16000 -0.7 30.7 220 16 8 3.8 2.1 31.4 88.5 5.3 M M
15500 0.1 32.2 220 16 8 7.4 4.1 30.7 87.3 4.6 M M
15000 1.1 34.0 215 17 9 7.0 3.9 30.3 86.5 4.2 M M
14500 2.1 35.8 215 17 9 8.1 4.4 29.9 85.8 3.8 M M
14000 3.3 37.9 215 17 9 8.2 4.5 29.6 85.3 3.6 M M
13500 4.5 40.1 210 18 9 7.9 4.4 29.4 84.9 3.4 M M
13000 5.7 42.3 210 18 9 7.7 4.2 29.1 84.3 3.0 M M
12500 6.8 44.2 210 19 10 7.6 4.2 28.7 83.7 2.7 M M
12000 7.8 46.0 205 19 10 7.5 4.1 28.4 83.1 2.3 M M
11500 8.9 48.0 205 20 10 7.3 4.0 28.0 82.4 2.0 M M
11000 9.9 49.8 200 20 10 6.6 3.6 27.5 81.6 1.5 M M
10500 10.8 51.4 195 19 10 7.3 4.0 27.1 80.7 1.0 M M
10250 11.3 52.3 195 19 10 6.4 3.5 26.9 80.4 0.8 M M
10000 11.7 53.1 195 18 9 4.9 2.7 26.5 79.7 0.4 M M
9750 12.1 53.8 190 17 9 5.8 3.2 26.2 79.1 0.1 M M
9500 12.4 54.3 185 16 8 3.9 2.1 25.8 78.5 -0.3 285 1.4
9250 12.6 54.7 185 14 7 3.1 1.7 25.3 77.5 -0.8 272 1.4
9000 12.9 55.2 180 12 6 4.2 2.3 24.8 76.7 -1.3 257 1.3
8750 13.2 55.8 180 11 5 4.1 2.2 24.4 75.9 -1.7 241 1.2
8500 13.4 56.1 175 9 5 3.6 2.0 24.0 75.1 -2.2 225 1.1
8250 13.8 56.8 160 6 3 3.1 1.7 22.9 73.3 -3.3 200 1.0
8000 14.0 57.2 150 4 2 2.7 1.5 22.4 72.4 -3.8 187 1.0
7750 14.2 57.6 130 3 2 4.9 2.7 21.9 71.5 -4.4 174 0.9
7500 14.6 58.3 130 3 2 6.7 3.7 21.7 71.0 -4.6 153 0.8
7250 15.0 59.0 120 3 1 4.7 2.6 21.4 70.5 -5.0 133 0.7
7000 15.3 59.5 105 3 2 4.7 2.6 21.0 69.7 -5.4 117 0.6
6750 15.7 60.3 100 3 2 7.0 3.8 20.7 69.2 -5.8 98 0.5
6500 16.3 61.3 105 3 1 7.9 4.3 20.5 68.9 -6.0 74 0.4
6250 16.8 62.2 110 2 1 7.2 4.0 20.4 68.6 -6.2 51 0.3
6000 17.3 63.1 100 2 1 8.5 4.7 20.2 68.3 -6.4 28 0.1
5750 18.3 64.9 105 2 1 19.3 10.6 20.4 68.7 -6.2 M M
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +238.9 LI... -1.9 | CAPE... +456.2 LI... -3.0
CINH... -68.4 K Index... +30.7 | CINH... -15.1 K Index... +30.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.5 -87.7 230 15 8 3.2 1.8 | -66.6 -87.9 225 16 8 3.2 1.7
45000 -60.0 -76.0 225 23 12 6.1 3.3 | -60.2 -76.4 225 26 13 6.1 3.3
40000 -50.4 -58.7 225 27 14 8.2 4.5 | -50.5 -58.9 225 33 17 8.3 4.6
38000 -45.4 -49.7 225 27 14 8.2 4.5 | -44.9 -48.8 230 31 16 8.3 4.6
36000 -40.0 -40.0 230 26 13 6.8 3.7 | -40.0 -40.0 240 29 15 7.1 3.9
34000 -35.9 -32.6 225 23 12 6.8 3.7 | -35.7 -32.3 225 23 12 7.1 3.9
32000 -31.9 -25.4 225 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -31.5 -24.7 205 18 9 7.5 4.1
30000 -27.3 -17.1 215 19 10 7.8 4.3 | -26.8 -16.2 200 17 9 7.9 4.3
29000 -25.0 -13.0 210 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -24.5 -12.1 200 17 9 7.9 4.4
28000 -22.8 -9.0 205 18 9 6.7 3.7 | -22.3 -8.1 195 17 9 6.5 3.6
27000 -20.8 -5.4 200 18 9 6.8 3.7 | -20.3 -4.5 195 19 10 6.7 3.7
26000 -18.8 -1.8 200 19 10 6.8 3.8 | -18.3 -0.9 195 20 10 6.7 3.7
25000 -16.8 1.8 195 20 10 6.5 3.6 | -16.4 2.5 195 21 11 6.4 3.5
24000 -15.0 5.0 195 20 10 5.9 3.3 | -14.6 5.7 190 22 11 6.0 3.3
23000 -13.3 8.1 195 21 11 5.9 3.3 | -12.4 9.7 190 23 12 6.0 3.3
22000 -11.0 12.2 190 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -10.7 12.7 185 24 12 5.5 3.0
21000 -9.2 15.4 190 20 10 6.5 3.5 | -9.1 15.6 185 24 13 5.5 3.0
20000 -7.3 18.9 190 18 9 6.5 3.5 | -7.5 18.5 185 25 13 5.6 3.0
19500 -6.3 20.7 190 17 9 6.3 3.5 | -6.7 19.9 180 26 13 5.6 3.1
19000 -5.4 22.3 190 17 9 6.2 3.4 | -5.9 21.4 180 25 13 5.6 3.1
18500 -4.5 23.9 195 17 9 6.2 3.4 | -5.1 22.8 180 25 13 5.6 3.0
18000 -3.7 25.3 200 17 9 5.8 3.2 | -4.3 24.3 180 24 13 6.1 3.4
17500 -2.9 26.8 200 17 9 5.8 3.2 | -3.4 25.9 180 24 12 6.1 3.4
17000 -2.0 28.4 205 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -2.6 27.3 185 24 12 6.4 3.5
16500 -1.3 29.7 205 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -1.6 29.1 185 23 12 6.6 3.6
16000 -0.6 30.9 210 18 9 5.4 3.0 | -0.7 30.7 185 23 12 6.7 3.7
15500 0.3 32.5 210 18 9 6.4 3.5 | 0.3 32.5 190 23 12 7.0 3.8
15000 1.1 34.0 215 18 9 6.3 3.4 | 1.3 34.3 190 22 11 7.0 3.8
14500 2.1 35.8 215 18 9 7.6 4.1 | 2.3 36.1 190 22 11 7.0 3.8
14000 3.2 37.8 215 18 9 7.7 4.2 | 3.3 37.9 190 21 11 7.0 3.8
13500 4.3 39.7 215 18 9 7.6 4.2 | 4.3 39.7 190 20 10 7.2 4.0
13000 5.4 41.7 215 18 9 7.6 4.2 | 5.4 41.7 190 19 10 7.3 4.0
12500 6.5 43.7 215 19 10 7.6 4.2 | 6.4 43.5 190 18 9 7.3 4.0
12000 7.6 45.7 215 19 10 7.6 4.2 | 7.5 45.5 190 17 9 7.3 4.0
11500 8.7 47.7 220 19 10 7.4 4.0 | 8.5 47.3 190 16 8 7.4 4.0
11000 9.7 49.5 220 19 10 6.9 3.8 | 9.6 49.3 190 14 7 7.4 4.1
10500 10.7 51.3 220 18 9 7.2 4.0 | 10.6 51.1 190 13 7 7.2 3.9
10250 11.3 52.3 220 18 9 7.1 3.9 | 11.1 52.0 190 12 6 7.0 3.8
10000 11.7 53.1 220 17 9 6.3 3.5 | 11.6 52.9 190 11 6 6.9 3.8
9750 12.2 54.0 215 16 8 7.2 4.0 | 12.1 53.8 190 11 5 7.5 4.1
9500 12.6 54.7 215 15 8 4.3 2.4 | 12.6 54.7 195 10 5 5.0 2.7
9250 12.8 55.0 210 14 7 3.2 1.8 | 13.3 55.9 195 8 4 7.3 4.0
9000 13.1 55.6 210 12 6 5.1 2.8 | 13.8 56.8 195 7 4 6.6 3.6
8750 13.4 56.1 205 11 6 5.1 2.8 | 14.2 57.6 195 6 3 7.1 3.9
8500 13.8 56.8 195 8 4 1.7 0.9 | 14.8 58.6 190 6 3 8.4 4.6
8250 14.0 57.2 190 7 4 3.1 1.7 | 15.4 59.7 190 5 3 9.4 5.1
8000 14.1 57.4 185 5 3 3.3 1.8 | 16.1 61.0 195 5 3 9.4 5.1
7750 14.4 57.9 175 4 2 5.0 2.7 | 16.8 62.2 195 5 3 9.5 5.2
7500 14.8 58.6 170 3 2 6.3 3.4 | 17.5 63.5 195 5 3 9.6 5.3
7250 15.2 59.4 160 2 1 6.2 3.4 | 18.2 64.8 195 5 2 10.0 5.5
7000 15.7 60.3 135 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 19.0 66.2 195 5 2 10.1 5.5
6750 16.3 61.3 120 1 1 9.4 5.1 | 19.7 67.5 200 5 2 10.1 5.5
6500 17.1 62.8 115 1 1 9.6 5.3 | 20.5 68.9 200 5 2 10.0 5.5
6250 17.8 64.0 110 1 1 9.6 5.2 | 21.2 70.2 200 4 2 10.4 5.7
6000 18.5 65.3 095 1 1 11.7 6.4 | 22.1 71.8 200 4 2 15.3 8.4
5750 19.6 67.3 095 1 0 20.6 11.3 | 23.8 74.8 205 4 2 32.9 18.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +619.1 LI... -2.9 | CAPE... +151.5 LI... -2.1
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +32.3 | CINH... -58.5 K Index... +30.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.7 -88.1 230 16 8 2.6 1.4 | -67.4 -89.3 235 17 9 2.4 1.3
45000 -60.7 -77.3 240 25 13 6.3 3.5 | -61.2 -78.2 240 23 12 6.8 3.7
40000 -50.8 -59.4 225 28 14 7.9 4.3 | -50.5 -58.9 230 25 13 8.6 4.7
38000 -45.5 -49.9 225 25 13 7.9 4.3 | -44.7 -48.5 220 22 11 8.6 4.7
36000 -40.8 -41.4 225 22 12 8.3 4.5 | -39.6 -39.3 210 20 10 8.3 4.6
34000 -35.9 -32.6 220 20 10 8.3 4.5 | -34.6 -30.3 205 19 10 8.4 4.6
32000 -31.0 -23.8 205 18 9 8.0 4.4 | -29.7 -21.5 195 19 10 7.8 4.3
30000 -26.4 -15.5 200 18 9 7.7 4.2 | -25.3 -13.5 195 17 9 7.3 4.0
29000 -24.1 -11.4 200 19 10 7.7 4.2 | -23.2 -9.8 195 16 8 7.3 4.0
28000 -22.0 -7.6 200 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -21.1 -6.0 195 16 8 6.3 3.5
27000 -19.9 -3.8 200 20 10 6.8 3.7 | -19.2 -2.6 195 15 8 6.5 3.5
26000 -17.9 -0.2 200 20 10 6.8 3.7 | -17.3 0.9 200 14 7 6.5 3.6
25000 -15.9 3.4 200 21 11 6.6 3.6 | -15.4 4.3 200 14 7 6.2 3.4
24000 -14.1 6.6 200 21 11 6.3 3.5 | -13.7 7.3 200 14 7 5.8 3.2
23000 -11.8 10.8 200 23 12 6.3 3.5 | -11.6 11.1 200 15 8 5.9 3.2
22000 -9.9 14.2 200 23 12 5.6 3.1 | -10.0 14.0 200 16 8 5.1 2.8
21000 -8.3 17.1 195 23 12 5.7 3.1 | -8.5 16.7 200 18 9 5.1 2.8
20000 -6.6 20.1 190 23 12 5.7 3.1 | -7.0 19.4 200 20 10 5.1 2.8
19500 -5.8 21.6 190 24 12 5.5 3.0 | -6.2 20.8 200 21 11 5.0 2.8
19000 -5.1 22.8 190 24 12 5.3 2.9 | -5.5 22.1 200 22 11 5.0 2.7
18500 -4.4 24.1 190 24 12 5.3 2.9 | -4.8 23.4 200 22 11 4.9 2.7
18000 -3.6 25.5 190 24 12 5.1 2.8 | -4.0 24.8 200 23 12 5.9 3.2
17500 -2.9 26.8 190 24 12 5.1 2.8 | -3.2 26.2 200 22 12 6.0 3.3
17000 -2.2 28.0 190 24 12 5.4 3.0 | -2.4 27.7 200 22 11 6.5 3.6
16500 -1.4 29.5 190 24 12 5.7 3.2 | -1.3 29.7 200 22 11 7.3 4.0
16000 -0.6 30.9 190 24 13 5.8 3.2 | -0.3 31.5 200 21 11 7.3 4.0
15500 0.3 32.5 190 24 12 6.5 3.6 | 0.7 33.3 200 20 10 7.0 3.8
15000 1.2 34.2 190 23 12 6.4 3.5 | 1.7 35.1 200 19 10 7.0 3.8
14500 2.2 36.0 190 22 12 7.6 4.2 | 2.7 36.9 200 19 10 7.2 3.9
14000 3.3 37.9 195 21 11 7.7 4.2 | 3.7 38.7 195 18 9 7.2 4.0
13500 4.4 39.9 195 20 10 7.9 4.4 | 4.8 40.6 195 17 9 7.4 4.1
13000 5.5 41.9 190 19 10 8.0 4.4 | 5.8 42.4 200 16 8 7.5 4.1
12500 6.6 43.9 190 18 9 8.1 4.4 | 6.9 44.4 200 16 8 7.8 4.3
12000 7.7 45.9 190 17 9 8.1 4.4 | 8.1 46.6 200 15 8 8.1 4.5
11500 8.9 48.0 190 15 8 8.4 4.6 | 9.2 48.6 200 15 8 8.1 4.4
11000 10.2 50.4 190 14 7 9.2 5.0 | 10.4 50.7 205 14 7 7.8 4.3
10500 11.5 52.7 190 13 7 8.9 4.9 | 11.5 52.7 205 13 7 8.2 4.5
10250 12.1 53.8 190 13 7 9.6 5.2 | 12.1 53.8 205 13 7 8.0 4.4
10000 12.9 55.2 190 13 7 9.7 5.3 | 12.7 54.9 210 12 6 7.7 4.2
9750 13.6 56.5 190 13 7 9.9 5.4 | 13.2 55.8 210 12 6 7.8 4.3
9500 14.3 57.7 190 12 6 9.0 4.9 | 13.8 56.8 215 11 6 7.8 4.3
9250 14.9 58.8 190 12 6 8.9 4.9 | 14.4 57.9 220 11 6 7.3 4.0
9000 16.3 61.3 190 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 14.9 58.8 225 11 5 6.7 3.7
8750 17.1 62.8 190 11 6 8.4 4.6 | 15.4 59.7 230 10 5 7.2 4.0
8500 17.6 63.7 195 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 15.9 60.6 235 10 5 5.8 3.2
8250 18.4 65.1 195 11 6 11.0 6.0 | 16.7 62.1 255 10 5 6.6 3.6
8000 19.2 66.6 195 11 6 10.6 5.8 | 17.2 63.0 265 11 5 6.6 3.6
7750 20.0 68.0 195 10 5 9.6 5.3 | 17.6 63.7 275 11 6 5.5 3.0
7500 20.6 69.1 200 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 18.0 64.4 280 12 6 5.3 2.9
7250 21.4 70.5 200 10 5 10.2 5.6 | 18.4 65.1 290 13 7 7.5 4.1
7000 22.1 71.8 200 10 5 10.6 5.8 | 19.0 66.2 290 14 7 8.6 4.7
6750 22.9 73.2 200 10 5 10.4 5.7 | 19.7 67.5 295 14 7 9.0 5.0
6500 23.7 74.7 205 10 5 10.8 5.9 | 20.4 68.7 295 14 7 9.4 5.2
6250 24.5 76.1 205 9 5 9.6 5.3 | 21.0 69.8 295 14 7 9.0 5.0
6000 25.2 77.4 205 9 5 13.9 7.6 | 21.7 71.1 295 14 7 10.4 5.7
5750 27.4 81.3 210 8 4 54.7 30.0 | 22.7 72.9 295 11 6 21.5 11.8
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0736 MDT Wednesday September 16 2026
This forecast is for Wednesday, September 16, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 72.4 F/22.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 164 ft/min (0.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11093 ft MSL (4639 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 74.0 F/23.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9189 ft MSL (2735 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 09/17..... Excellent
Remarks... Numerous showers and thunderstorms today.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:48:08 / 19:10:10 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 22 min 2 sec (742 min 2 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:59:09 MDT... 56.80 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/16/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15641 ft MSL (9187 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12566 ft MSL (6112 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12007 ft MSL (5554 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.1
K index......................... +30.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.8 -88.2 250 20 10 3.6 2.0 75.0 167.0 30.7 M M
45000 -59.9 -75.8 240 25 13 5.8 3.2 62.0 143.6 24.6 M M
40000 -50.6 -59.1 230 32 16 7.9 4.3 54.2 129.6 21.0 M M
38000 -45.9 -50.6 230 33 17 7.9 4.3 52.5 126.4 20.3 M M
36000 -41.1 -42.0 235 34 18 7.7 4.2 51.3 124.4 20.0 M M
34000 -36.6 -33.9 230 33 17 7.6 4.2 49.2 120.6 19.0 M M
32000 -32.1 -25.8 230 31 16 7.6 4.2 47.7 117.9 18.3 M M
30000 -27.7 -17.9 220 28 14 7.4 4.1 45.7 114.3 17.1 M M
29000 -24.9 -12.8 215 26 14 7.4 4.1 44.7 112.4 16.5 M M
28000 -22.8 -9.0 215 25 13 7.2 3.9 43.8 110.8 15.9 M M
27000 -20.6 -5.1 215 24 12 7.2 3.9 42.7 108.9 15.2 M M
26000 -18.5 -1.3 215 23 12 7.2 4.0 41.8 107.3 14.6 M M
25000 -16.4 2.5 215 21 11 6.5 3.6 41.0 105.7 14.0 M M
24000 -14.6 5.7 220 20 10 6.2 3.4 39.6 103.2 13.0 M M
23000 -12.8 9.0 225 18 9 6.2 3.4 38.3 101.0 12.1 M M
22000 -10.9 12.4 230 17 9 6.2 3.4 37.1 98.9 11.2 M M
21000 -9.1 15.6 230 17 9 6.2 3.4 35.8 96.4 10.1 M M
20000 -7.3 18.9 230 18 9 6.2 3.4 34.6 94.2 9.1 M M
19500 -6.4 20.5 230 18 9 6.1 3.3 34.0 93.2 8.7 M M
19000 -5.6 21.9 230 18 9 5.6 3.1 33.3 92.0 8.1 M M
18500 -4.8 23.4 235 18 9 5.7 3.1 32.6 90.7 7.5 M M
18000 -4.0 24.8 235 17 9 5.9 3.2 32.0 89.5 6.9 M M
17500 -3.1 26.4 235 17 9 5.9 3.2 31.3 88.3 6.3 M M
17000 -2.3 27.9 230 16 8 5.9 3.2 30.7 87.2 5.7 M M
16500 -1.5 29.3 230 16 8 5.5 3.0 30.0 85.9 5.1 M M
16000 -0.7 30.7 225 16 8 5.4 3.0 29.3 84.7 4.4 M M
15500 0.1 32.2 220 16 8 6.8 3.7 28.7 83.6 3.8 M M
15000 1.1 34.0 220 17 9 6.8 3.7 28.2 82.7 3.3 M M
14500 2.1 35.8 220 18 9 7.2 3.9 27.7 81.9 2.9 M M
14000 3.1 37.6 215 18 9 7.4 4.1 27.3 81.2 2.5 M M
13500 4.2 39.6 210 19 10 7.5 4.1 27.0 80.5 2.1 M M
13000 5.3 41.5 210 19 10 7.6 4.2 26.6 79.9 1.8 M M
12500 6.4 43.5 205 19 10 7.5 4.1 26.3 79.3 1.4 M M
12000 7.4 45.3 200 18 9 6.9 3.8 25.8 78.5 1.0 M M
11500 9.0 48.2 195 17 9 6.8 3.8 25.2 77.4 0.4 M M
11000 9.8 49.6 195 16 8 5.9 3.2 24.6 76.3 -0.3 348 1.8
10500 10.6 51.1 190 15 8 5.0 2.7 24.0 75.1 -0.9 309 1.6
10250 11.0 51.8 190 14 7 4.9 2.7 23.6 74.4 -1.3 292 1.5
10000 11.3 52.3 185 14 7 5.2 2.9 23.2 73.8 -1.7 274 1.4
9750 11.7 53.1 180 13 7 4.9 2.7 22.9 73.1 -2.1 256 1.3
9500 12.0 53.6 175 13 7 3.2 1.8 22.4 72.4 -2.5 240 1.2
9250 12.1 53.8 175 12 6 3.7 2.0 21.9 71.4 -3.1 227 1.2
9000 12.5 54.5 170 11 6 5.2 2.9 21.5 70.7 -3.5 209 1.1
8750 12.8 55.0 165 11 6 4.5 2.5 21.2 70.1 -3.9 192 1.0
8500 13.1 55.6 165 10 5 3.6 2.0 20.7 69.3 -4.3 177 0.9
8250 13.3 55.9 160 10 5 3.6 2.0 20.2 68.4 -4.9 163 0.8
8000 13.6 56.5 155 9 5 4.0 2.2 19.8 67.6 -5.3 147 0.7
7750 13.9 57.0 155 8 4 4.7 2.6 19.4 66.9 -5.8 131 0.7
7500 14.2 57.6 155 7 4 5.2 2.8 19.0 66.2 -6.2 113 0.6
7250 14.6 58.3 150 6 3 5.2 2.8 18.7 65.6 -6.5 95 0.5
7000 14.9 58.8 150 5 3 4.2 2.3 18.3 65.0 -6.9 77 0.4
6750 15.1 59.2 155 4 2 2.7 1.5 17.8 64.1 -7.5 63 0.3
6500 15.4 59.7 155 3 1 7.3 4.0 17.4 63.3 -7.9 47 0.2
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/16/2026 at 0900 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +118.5 LI... -1.7 | CAPE... +452.2 LI... -3.0
CINH... -78.4 K Index... +30.4 | CINH... -5.0 K Index... +28.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.5 -87.7 235 16 8 3.2 1.7 | -65.9 -86.6 230 16 8 3.0 1.6
45000 -60.1 -76.2 240 23 12 6.1 3.3 | -59.9 -75.8 230 25 13 5.6 3.1
40000 -50.5 -58.9 240 30 15 7.9 4.3 | -51.0 -59.8 220 32 16 7.7 4.2
38000 -45.2 -49.4 235 30 15 7.9 4.3 | -45.8 -50.4 225 26 14 7.7 4.2
36000 -40.5 -40.9 235 30 15 7.2 4.0 | -41.2 -42.2 230 22 11 8.2 4.5
34000 -36.3 -33.3 230 26 14 7.2 3.9 | -36.3 -33.3 220 20 10 8.2 4.5
32000 -32.0 -25.6 230 23 12 7.4 4.0 | -31.5 -24.7 210 18 9 8.0 4.4
30000 -27.5 -17.5 220 21 11 7.6 4.2 | -26.9 -16.4 205 18 9 7.7 4.2
29000 -25.3 -13.5 215 20 10 7.6 4.2 | -24.6 -12.3 205 18 9 7.7 4.3
28000 -23.1 -9.6 210 20 10 7.1 3.9 | -22.4 -8.3 205 18 9 7.0 3.8
27000 -20.9 -5.6 205 20 10 7.2 3.9 | -20.3 -4.5 200 19 10 7.1 3.9
26000 -18.8 -1.8 205 19 10 7.2 4.0 | -18.2 -0.8 200 20 10 7.1 3.9
25000 -16.7 1.9 200 19 10 6.9 3.8 | -15.7 3.7 200 21 11 5.7 3.1
24000 -14.4 6.1 200 19 10 6.4 3.5 | -14.0 6.8 200 22 11 5.8 3.2
23000 -12.5 9.5 200 19 10 6.4 3.5 | -12.3 9.9 195 23 12 5.8 3.2
22000 -10.8 12.6 200 19 10 5.5 3.0 | -10.7 12.7 195 24 12 5.2 2.9
21000 -9.1 15.6 205 18 9 5.6 3.1 | -9.2 15.4 195 23 12 5.3 2.9
20000 -7.5 18.5 205 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -7.7 18.1 195 23 12 5.3 2.9
19500 -6.7 19.9 210 17 9 5.8 3.2 | -6.9 19.6 195 23 12 5.5 3.0
19000 -5.9 21.4 210 17 9 6.0 3.3 | -6.1 21.0 195 23 12 5.7 3.1
18500 -5.0 23.0 210 16 8 6.0 3.3 | -5.3 22.5 195 22 12 5.6 3.1
18000 -4.2 24.4 210 16 8 6.0 3.3 | -4.4 24.1 200 22 11 6.6 3.6
17500 -3.3 26.1 210 16 8 6.0 3.3 | -3.4 25.9 200 21 11 6.6 3.6
17000 -2.5 27.5 210 16 8 6.1 3.3 | -2.5 27.5 205 21 11 6.8 3.7
16500 -1.6 29.1 210 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -1.5 29.3 205 20 10 7.0 3.8
16000 -0.7 30.7 210 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -0.5 31.1 205 19 10 7.0 3.8
15500 0.3 32.5 210 17 9 7.2 4.0 | 0.5 32.9 210 18 9 6.8 3.8
15000 1.3 34.3 215 17 9 7.1 3.9 | 1.5 34.7 210 18 9 6.9 3.8
14500 2.3 36.1 215 17 9 7.6 4.2 | 2.4 36.3 210 17 9 6.8 3.7
14000 3.5 38.3 215 18 9 7.7 4.2 | 3.4 38.1 215 17 9 6.8 3.7
13500 4.6 40.3 215 18 9 7.6 4.2 | 4.4 39.9 215 16 8 6.9 3.8
13000 5.7 42.3 220 18 9 7.4 4.1 | 5.4 41.7 215 16 8 7.0 3.8
12500 6.7 44.1 220 19 10 7.3 4.0 | 6.4 43.5 220 16 8 6.9 3.8
12000 7.8 46.0 220 19 10 7.2 3.9 | 7.4 45.3 220 16 8 6.8 3.7
11500 8.8 47.8 220 19 10 7.2 3.9 | 8.3 46.9 220 15 8 7.3 4.0
11000 9.8 49.6 220 19 10 6.5 3.6 | 9.9 49.8 220 13 7 7.2 4.0
10500 11.1 52.0 215 16 8 5.0 2.7 | 10.9 51.6 220 12 6 7.3 4.0
10250 11.4 52.5 215 15 8 4.1 2.3 | 11.4 52.5 215 12 6 7.5 4.1
10000 11.7 53.1 210 13 7 4.3 2.4 | 12.0 53.6 215 11 6 7.4 4.0
9750 11.9 53.4 205 12 6 3.6 2.0 | 12.5 54.5 215 11 6 8.0 4.4
9500 12.1 53.8 200 11 6 1.9 1.0 | 13.1 55.6 210 10 5 8.9 4.9
9250 12.2 54.0 190 10 5 2.5 1.4 | 13.7 56.7 210 10 5 8.5 4.7
9000 12.4 54.3 185 9 4 3.6 2.0 | 14.3 57.7 210 10 5 7.9 4.3
8750 12.6 54.7 175 8 4 3.1 1.7 | 14.9 58.8 205 10 5 8.8 4.8
8500 12.8 55.0 165 7 4 2.6 1.5 | 15.6 60.1 205 9 5 9.6 5.3
8250 13.0 55.4 155 7 4 3.3 1.8 | 16.3 61.3 205 9 5 9.5 5.2
8000 13.3 55.9 150 7 4 5.0 2.8 | 17.0 62.6 205 9 5 9.5 5.2
7750 13.7 56.7 150 6 3 7.6 4.2 | 17.7 63.9 205 9 5 10.0 5.5
7500 14.3 57.7 150 6 3 9.0 4.9 | 18.4 65.1 205 9 4 10.6 5.8
7250 14.9 58.8 150 6 3 8.2 4.5 | 19.2 66.6 205 8 4 9.7 5.3
7000 15.6 60.1 150 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 20.0 68.0 205 8 4 12.6 6.9
6750 16.4 61.5 150 5 3 13.7 7.5 | 21.2 70.2 200 8 4 21.4 11.7
6500 17.5 63.5 155 5 2 14.0 7.7 | 22.8 73.0 205 7 4 18.2 10.0
09/16/2026 at 1500 MDT | 09/16/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +279.8 LI... -1.5 | CAPE... +51.5 LI... -0.6
CINH... -21.8 K Index... +30.7 | CINH... -87.6 K Index... +29.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.6 -87.9 225 19 10 2.7 1.5 | -67.7 -89.9 235 17 9 2.2 1.2
45000 -60.7 -77.3 240 28 15 6.0 3.3 | -61.7 -79.1 235 21 11 7.0 3.9
40000 -51.2 -60.2 230 32 17 8.1 4.5 | -50.7 -59.3 225 22 11 8.6 4.7
38000 -45.7 -50.3 230 28 14 8.1 4.5 | -45.0 -49.0 220 21 11 8.6 4.7
36000 -40.9 -41.6 230 24 13 8.0 4.4 | -39.9 -39.8 215 20 10 7.9 4.3
34000 -36.1 -33.0 220 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -35.1 -31.2 210 19 10 8.0 4.4
32000 -31.3 -24.3 205 20 10 8.0 4.4 | -30.4 -22.7 210 18 9 7.9 4.3
30000 -26.7 -16.1 200 20 10 7.9 4.3 | -25.8 -14.4 205 19 10 7.8 4.3
29000 -24.3 -11.7 200 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -23.5 -10.3 205 19 10 7.8 4.3
28000 -22.0 -7.6 200 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -21.2 -6.2 205 20 10 7.6 4.2
27000 -19.8 -3.6 200 21 11 7.6 4.1 | -19.0 -2.2 205 20 10 7.7 4.2
26000 -17.6 0.3 200 23 12 7.6 4.2 | -16.7 1.9 210 20 10 7.7 4.2
25000 -15.4 4.3 200 24 12 7.1 3.9 | -14.0 6.8 210 20 11 6.5 3.6
24000 -13.0 8.6 195 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -12.1 10.2 215 21 11 6.5 3.6
23000 -11.1 12.0 195 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -10.2 13.6 215 21 11 6.6 3.6
22000 -9.2 15.4 190 25 13 5.5 3.0 | -8.4 16.9 215 22 11 5.5 3.0
21000 -7.7 18.1 190 25 13 5.6 3.1 | -6.8 19.8 215 22 11 5.4 3.0
20000 -6.1 21.0 190 25 13 5.6 3.1 | -5.3 22.5 215 22 11 5.4 3.0
19500 -5.3 22.5 190 25 13 5.5 3.0 | -4.5 23.9 215 22 11 5.3 2.9
19000 -4.5 23.9 190 24 13 5.4 2.9 | -3.8 25.2 215 22 11 5.0 2.8
18500 -3.7 25.3 190 24 12 5.4 2.9 | -3.0 26.6 215 22 11 5.0 2.8
18000 -3.0 26.6 190 23 12 5.2 2.9 | -2.3 27.9 215 22 11 4.9 2.7
17500 -2.2 28.0 190 22 11 5.3 2.9 | -1.6 29.1 215 21 11 4.9 2.7
17000 -1.5 29.3 190 21 11 5.5 3.0 | -0.9 30.4 215 21 11 4.9 2.7
16500 -0.7 30.7 190 20 10 6.0 3.3 | -0.3 31.5 210 21 11 4.8 2.7
16000 0.2 32.4 190 19 10 6.0 3.3 | 0.4 32.7 210 21 11 4.8 2.6
15500 1.0 33.8 195 19 10 6.3 3.4 | 1.2 34.2 210 20 10 5.7 3.1
15000 1.9 35.4 195 18 9 6.3 3.4 | 2.0 35.6 210 20 10 5.7 3.1
14500 2.8 37.0 195 17 9 6.1 3.4 | 2.8 37.0 210 19 10 5.6 3.1
14000 3.6 38.5 195 15 8 6.1 3.4 | 3.6 38.5 210 19 10 5.6 3.1
13500 4.5 40.1 200 14 7 6.7 3.7 | 4.3 39.7 210 18 9 5.7 3.1
13000 5.5 41.9 200 13 7 7.1 3.9 | 5.2 41.4 205 17 9 5.9 3.2
12500 6.5 43.7 200 12 6 7.2 4.0 | 6.0 42.8 205 17 9 5.8 3.2
12000 7.6 45.7 200 11 6 7.2 4.0 | 6.8 44.2 205 16 8 5.5 3.0
11500 8.6 47.5 205 10 5 7.5 4.1 | 7.5 45.5 205 15 8 6.7 3.7
11000 9.8 49.6 205 9 5 8.2 4.5 | 8.9 48.0 205 14 7 5.8 3.2
10500 11.0 51.8 205 9 5 8.4 4.6 | 9.6 49.3 205 13 7 5.6 3.1
10250 11.6 52.9 205 9 4 8.9 4.9 | 10.1 50.2 205 13 6 6.1 3.3
10000 12.9 55.2 205 8 4 9.1 5.0 | 10.5 50.9 205 12 6 6.2 3.4
9750 13.6 56.5 210 8 4 9.0 4.9 | 10.9 51.6 205 12 6 6.2 3.4
9500 14.3 57.7 210 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 11.4 52.5 205 12 6 6.5 3.6
9250 14.9 58.8 205 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 11.8 53.2 205 12 6 6.3 3.5
9000 15.6 60.1 210 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 12.3 54.1 205 11 6 6.1 3.4
8750 16.3 61.3 210 8 4 9.4 5.2 | 12.7 54.9 205 11 5 6.2 3.4
8500 17.0 62.6 210 8 4 9.1 5.0 | 13.2 55.8 205 10 5 6.2 3.4
8250 17.7 63.9 210 8 4 9.4 5.1 | 13.6 56.5 200 10 5 5.9 3.2
8000 18.4 65.1 210 8 4 10.0 5.5 | 14.0 57.2 200 8 4 4.5 2.5
7750 19.2 66.6 210 8 4 10.0 5.5 | 14.3 57.7 195 7 3 5.2 2.9
7500 19.9 67.8 210 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 14.7 58.5 185 6 3 6.6 3.6
7250 20.6 69.1 210 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 15.2 59.4 175 5 3 6.2 3.4
7000 21.3 70.3 210 8 4 10.3 5.7 | 15.6 60.1 160 4 2 5.3 2.9
6750 22.2 72.0 210 7 4 15.2 8.3 | 16.0 60.8 145 3 2 6.7 3.7
6500 23.6 74.5 210 7 4 23.7 13.0 | 16.8 62.2 115 3 2 20.9 11.5
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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