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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0707 MDT Sunday September 21 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, September 21, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 71.8 F/22.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 865 ft/min (4.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16306 ft MSL (9974 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14578 ft MSL (8246 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 09/22....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:51:47 / 19:02:02 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 10 min 15 sec (730 min 15 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:56:54 MDT... 55.39 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/21/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14486 ft MSL (8154 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18608 ft MSL (12276 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17460 ft MSL (11128 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.2
K index......................... +4.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.1 -90.6 290 42 22 3.7 2.0 74.1 165.3 27.4 M M
45000 -60.8 -77.4 290 60 31 6.6 3.6 61.8 143.2 21.6 M M
40000 -50.7 -59.3 295 70 36 7.5 4.1 55.3 131.6 18.7 M M
38000 -46.2 -51.2 290 69 36 7.5 4.1 53.2 127.7 17.7 M M
36000 -41.6 -42.9 290 68 35 7.6 4.2 51.6 124.9 17.0 M M
34000 -37.5 -35.5 290 64 33 6.7 3.7 49.0 120.2 15.5 M M
32000 -33.0 -27.4 290 59 30 6.6 3.6 46.4 115.6 14.0 M M
30000 -28.8 -19.8 290 54 28 7.2 4.0 44.2 111.6 12.7 M M
29000 -26.6 -15.9 295 52 27 7.2 4.0 43.3 109.9 12.1 M M
28000 -24.4 -11.9 295 50 26 7.7 4.2 42.5 108.5 11.6 M M
27000 -22.1 -7.8 295 48 25 7.9 4.3 41.6 107.0 11.0 M M
26000 -19.7 -3.5 295 46 24 7.9 4.3 40.9 105.7 10.6 M M
25000 -17.4 0.7 295 44 23 7.9 4.4 40.4 104.7 10.2 M M
24000 -15.2 4.6 295 42 22 7.1 3.9 39.4 102.9 9.5 M M
23000 -13.1 8.4 290 39 20 7.1 3.9 38.4 101.1 8.8 M M
22000 -10.9 12.4 290 37 19 7.1 3.9 37.5 99.6 8.2 M M
21000 -9.5 14.9 290 33 17 4.2 2.3 35.7 96.3 6.8 M M
20000 -8.2 17.2 290 29 15 4.2 2.3 33.8 92.8 5.2 M M
19500 -7.6 18.3 290 27 14 4.2 2.3 32.9 91.2 4.4 M M
19000 -6.9 19.6 290 25 13 5.8 3.2 32.0 89.7 3.7 M M
18500 -5.5 22.1 290 23 12 6.5 3.6 31.2 88.1 2.9 M M
18000 -4.6 23.7 285 22 12 5.7 3.1 30.6 87.1 2.4 M M
17500 -3.8 25.2 290 22 11 5.3 2.9 29.8 85.7 1.7 M M
17000 -3.0 26.6 290 21 11 5.2 2.9 29.1 84.4 1.0 M M
16500 -2.4 27.7 290 21 11 3.9 2.2 28.2 82.8 0.2 M M
16000 -1.9 28.6 295 21 11 4.1 2.2 27.3 81.1 -0.7 840 4.3
15500 -1.3 29.7 300 22 11 4.8 2.6 26.4 79.5 -1.6 808 4.1
15000 -0.6 30.9 300 22 12 4.9 2.7 25.6 78.0 -2.4 773 3.9
14500 0.1 32.2 305 23 12 5.9 3.2 24.8 76.6 -3.2 738 3.8
14000 1.0 33.8 305 24 12 6.6 3.6 24.3 75.7 -3.8 696 3.5
13500 1.9 35.4 310 25 13 7.2 4.0 23.8 74.8 -4.3 654 3.3
13000 3.0 37.4 310 25 13 8.4 4.6 23.5 74.3 -4.7 604 3.1
12500 4.3 39.7 310 24 13 8.6 4.7 23.3 73.9 -4.9 553 2.8
12000 5.6 42.1 315 23 12 9.2 5.1 23.2 73.7 -5.1 499 2.5
11500 6.9 44.4 315 22 11 8.9 4.9 23.1 73.6 -5.2 444 2.3
11000 8.3 46.9 315 21 11 9.8 5.4 23.0 73.4 -5.4 388 2.0
10500 9.7 49.5 320 20 10 9.5 5.2 23.0 73.4 -5.4 330 1.7
10250 10.4 50.7 320 20 10 9.1 5.0 23.0 73.3 -5.5 303 1.5
10000 11.1 52.0 320 19 10 9.3 5.1 22.9 73.3 -5.5 275 1.4
9750 11.8 53.2 320 19 10 9.5 5.2 22.9 73.2 -5.6 246 1.3
9500 12.5 54.5 320 18 9 9.5 5.2 22.9 73.2 -5.6 218 1.1
9250 13.2 55.8 325 17 9 10.3 5.7 22.9 73.2 -5.6 188 1.0
9000 14.0 57.2 325 17 9 9.5 5.2 22.9 73.3 -5.6 158 0.8
8750 14.6 58.3 320 16 8 8.5 4.7 22.8 73.1 -5.7 132 0.7
8500 15.3 59.5 320 16 8 8.6 4.7 22.8 73.0 -5.8 105 0.5
8250 15.9 60.6 320 15 8 8.4 4.6 22.7 72.8 -5.9 79 0.4
8000 16.5 61.7 315 14 7 7.7 4.3 22.6 72.6 -6.1 53 0.3
7750 17.0 62.6 315 13 7 7.4 4.1 22.4 72.3 -6.2 29 0.1
7500 17.5 63.5 310 12 6 4.1 2.3 22.1 71.8 -6.5 8 0.0
7250 17.6 63.7 310 11 6 0.5 0.3 21.5 70.7 -7.1 M M
7000 17.7 63.9 305 9 5 1.6 0.9 20.8 69.5 -7.8 M M
6750 17.8 64.0 305 8 4 -1.8 -1.0 20.2 68.3 -8.5 M M
6500 17.1 62.8 305 7 3 -17.3 -9.5 18.8 65.8 -9.9 M M
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/21/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.1 | CAPE... +2.4 LI... +3.1
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +5.0 | CINH... -0.8 K Index... +4.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.8 -90.0 290 37 19 3.5 1.9 | -68.3 -90.9 280 36 19 2.7 1.5
45000 -60.6 -77.1 290 59 30 7.1 3.9 | -61.4 -78.5 290 57 29 8.0 4.4
40000 -50.0 -58.0 295 73 38 7.0 3.8 | -49.7 -57.5 290 67 35 6.6 3.6
38000 -45.8 -50.4 290 69 35 7.0 3.8 | -45.7 -50.3 290 64 33 6.6 3.6
36000 -41.6 -42.9 290 65 33 7.0 3.9 | -41.8 -43.2 290 60 31 6.6 3.6
34000 -37.0 -34.6 290 60 31 6.7 3.7 | -37.1 -34.8 285 55 28 6.9 3.8
32000 -33.0 -27.4 290 55 28 6.7 3.7 | -33.0 -27.4 285 50 26 6.9 3.8
30000 -29.1 -20.4 290 49 25 6.6 3.6 | -28.9 -20.0 280 45 23 6.9 3.8
29000 -27.1 -16.8 290 45 23 6.6 3.6 | -26.9 -16.4 280 42 22 6.9 3.8
28000 -25.1 -13.2 290 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -24.8 -12.6 280 40 20 7.4 4.1
27000 -22.7 -8.9 295 40 21 8.1 4.4 | -22.5 -8.5 280 36 19 7.6 4.2
26000 -20.2 -4.4 295 39 20 8.1 4.4 | -20.2 -4.4 285 33 17 7.6 4.2
25000 -17.8 -0.0 295 37 19 8.1 4.5 | -17.9 -0.2 285 30 15 7.7 4.2
24000 -15.3 4.5 295 36 19 8.4 4.6 | -15.5 4.1 285 29 15 8.1 4.5
23000 -12.8 9.0 290 35 18 8.4 4.6 | -13.1 8.4 285 28 14 8.1 4.5
22000 -10.3 13.5 290 34 17 8.2 4.5 | -10.6 12.9 285 27 14 7.8 4.3
21000 -8.8 16.2 290 31 16 4.1 2.2 | -9.1 15.6 285 26 13 4.6 2.5
20000 -7.6 18.3 290 27 14 4.1 2.2 | -7.7 18.1 290 24 12 4.6 2.5
19500 -7.0 19.4 295 25 13 4.0 2.2 | -7.0 19.4 290 23 12 4.6 2.5
19000 -6.3 20.7 295 23 12 5.2 2.9 | -6.3 20.7 295 22 11 5.4 3.0
18500 -5.1 22.8 295 21 11 5.7 3.1 | -5.0 23.0 295 20 10 5.7 3.1
18000 -4.3 24.3 295 19 10 4.8 2.6 | -4.2 24.4 295 19 10 5.3 2.9
17500 -3.6 25.5 300 19 10 4.5 2.5 | -3.4 25.9 295 18 9 5.2 2.9
17000 -3.0 26.6 300 18 9 4.3 2.4 | -2.7 27.1 300 17 9 4.8 2.7
16500 -2.5 27.5 300 19 10 2.7 1.5 | -2.2 28.0 300 17 9 2.7 1.5
16000 -2.2 28.0 300 19 10 3.0 1.6 | -1.8 28.8 300 16 8 3.2 1.7
15500 -1.8 28.8 305 20 10 3.9 2.1 | -1.5 29.3 300 16 8 2.5 1.4
15000 -1.3 29.7 305 21 11 4.2 2.3 | -1.3 29.7 300 16 8 2.9 1.6
14500 -0.8 30.6 305 23 12 6.2 3.4 | -1.0 30.2 300 15 8 7.2 3.9
14000 0.2 32.4 305 23 12 7.4 4.1 | 0.4 32.7 295 15 8 9.1 5.0
13500 1.3 34.3 305 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 1.7 35.1 295 15 8 9.4 5.2
13000 2.6 36.7 305 22 11 9.4 5.1 | 3.1 37.6 295 15 8 9.7 5.3
12500 4.0 39.2 305 21 11 9.4 5.2 | 4.6 40.3 295 15 8 9.6 5.3
12000 5.4 41.7 305 20 10 9.5 5.2 | 6.0 42.8 295 15 8 9.3 5.1
11500 6.8 44.2 305 18 10 9.6 5.3 | 7.4 45.3 295 15 8 9.7 5.3
11000 8.3 46.9 305 17 9 9.6 5.2 | 8.8 47.8 295 15 8 9.5 5.2
10500 9.7 49.5 305 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 10.3 50.5 295 16 8 9.3 5.1
10250 10.4 50.7 305 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 10.9 51.6 295 16 8 9.3 5.1
10000 11.1 52.0 305 15 8 9.4 5.2 | 11.7 53.1 295 16 8 9.8 5.4
9750 11.8 53.2 300 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 12.4 54.3 295 16 8 9.8 5.4
9500 12.5 54.5 300 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 13.1 55.6 295 16 8 10.0 5.5
9250 13.2 55.8 300 13 7 9.8 5.3 | 13.9 57.0 295 16 8 10.6 5.8
9000 13.9 57.0 295 13 7 8.7 4.8 | 14.7 58.5 290 16 8 9.9 5.5
8750 14.5 58.1 295 12 6 8.0 4.4 | 15.4 59.7 290 16 8 9.2 5.0
8500 15.1 59.2 290 12 6 7.6 4.2 | 16.1 61.0 290 16 8 9.6 5.3
8250 15.7 60.3 285 11 6 6.7 3.7 | 16.8 62.2 290 16 8 9.8 5.4
8000 16.1 61.0 285 11 6 6.3 3.5 | 17.5 63.5 290 16 8 10.0 5.5
7750 16.6 61.9 285 10 5 5.9 3.3 | 18.3 64.9 290 16 8 10.2 5.6
7500 17.0 62.6 280 10 5 4.9 2.7 | 19.0 66.2 290 16 8 10.5 5.8
7250 17.3 63.1 280 9 4 4.2 2.3 | 19.8 67.6 290 16 8 10.9 6.0
7000 17.6 63.7 285 7 4 4.0 2.2 | 20.6 69.1 290 16 8 10.3 5.6
6750 17.9 64.2 285 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 21.4 70.5 290 16 8 12.1 6.6
6500 18.7 65.7 285 6 3 14.3 7.9 | 22.6 72.7 290 15 8 20.5 11.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/21/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +2.2 LI... +2.0 | CAPE... +0.9 LI... +2.1
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +12.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +23.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.4 -91.1 280 45 23 2.7 1.5 | -68.3 -90.9 280 47 24 3.1 1.7
45000 -61.4 -78.5 285 65 33 8.0 4.4 | -61.2 -78.2 280 64 33 7.5 4.1
40000 -49.6 -57.3 285 66 34 6.8 3.7 | -49.9 -57.8 280 68 35 7.4 4.1
38000 -45.5 -49.9 285 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -45.5 -49.9 280 67 35 7.4 4.1
36000 -41.4 -42.5 285 67 35 6.9 3.8 | -41.0 -41.8 280 66 34 7.6 4.1
34000 -37.5 -35.5 280 58 30 6.5 3.5 | -37.2 -35.0 275 58 30 6.2 3.4
32000 -33.2 -27.8 275 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -33.0 -27.4 270 48 25 6.1 3.3
30000 -29.0 -20.2 275 42 22 7.1 3.9 | -28.7 -19.7 270 45 23 7.4 4.0
29000 -26.8 -16.2 275 40 21 7.1 3.9 | -26.5 -15.7 270 44 23 7.4 4.1
28000 -24.7 -12.5 275 38 19 7.3 4.0 | -24.3 -11.7 270 42 22 7.1 3.9
27000 -22.5 -8.5 275 34 18 7.4 4.1 | -22.2 -8.0 270 38 19 6.9 3.8
26000 -20.3 -4.5 275 30 16 7.4 4.1 | -20.1 -4.2 275 33 17 6.9 3.8
25000 -18.1 -0.6 275 27 14 7.4 4.1 | -18.0 -0.4 275 28 15 6.9 3.8
24000 -15.8 3.6 275 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -15.9 3.4 275 26 14 7.2 4.0
23000 -13.6 7.5 275 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -13.7 7.3 275 25 13 7.2 4.0
22000 -11.3 11.7 275 24 12 7.5 4.1 | -11.6 11.1 280 24 12 7.2 3.9
21000 -9.7 14.5 280 23 12 4.9 2.7 | -9.8 14.4 280 22 11 5.5 3.0
20000 -8.2 17.2 290 22 11 4.9 2.7 | -8.2 17.2 285 19 10 5.5 3.0
19500 -7.5 18.5 290 22 11 4.9 2.7 | -7.4 18.7 290 18 9 5.6 3.0
19000 -6.7 19.9 295 21 11 5.8 3.2 | -6.6 20.1 295 17 9 4.6 2.5
18500 -5.3 22.5 295 20 10 6.1 3.4 | -6.0 21.2 295 17 9 4.4 2.4
18000 -4.4 24.1 300 19 10 5.6 3.1 | -5.1 22.8 295 17 9 3.8 2.1
17500 -3.6 25.5 300 18 9 5.5 3.0 | -4.7 23.5 295 18 9 3.7 2.0
17000 -2.8 27.0 300 18 9 5.0 2.7 | -4.3 24.3 290 18 10 4.4 2.4
16500 -2.6 27.3 300 17 9 1.2 0.7 | -3.5 25.7 285 18 9 6.6 3.6
16000 -2.5 27.5 295 17 9 2.1 1.1 | -2.7 27.1 285 18 9 6.3 3.5
15500 -2.1 28.2 295 17 9 7.7 4.2 | -1.6 29.1 285 17 9 9.5 5.2
15000 -1.0 30.2 295 17 9 7.9 4.3 | -0.1 31.8 280 17 9 9.7 5.3
14500 0.2 32.4 295 16 8 8.9 4.9 | 1.3 34.3 280 17 9 9.6 5.3
14000 1.6 34.9 295 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 2.7 36.9 280 17 9 9.6 5.3
13500 3.0 37.4 295 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 4.2 39.6 280 16 8 9.7 5.3
13000 4.5 40.1 295 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 5.6 42.1 280 16 8 9.9 5.4
12500 5.9 42.6 290 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 7.1 44.8 280 16 8 9.8 5.4
12000 7.3 45.1 290 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 8.6 47.5 280 16 8 9.5 5.2
11500 8.7 47.7 295 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 10.0 50.0 280 15 8 10.3 5.6
11000 10.2 50.4 290 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 11.5 52.7 280 15 8 9.3 5.1
10500 11.6 52.9 290 17 9 9.4 5.1 | 12.9 55.2 280 15 8 9.0 4.9
10250 12.3 54.1 290 17 9 9.2 5.1 | 13.6 56.5 280 15 8 9.3 5.1
10000 13.0 55.4 290 16 8 9.9 5.4 | 14.3 57.7 280 15 8 10.4 5.7
9750 13.8 56.8 290 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 15.1 59.2 280 15 8 10.1 5.6
9500 14.5 58.1 290 16 8 10.0 5.5 | 15.8 60.4 280 15 8 10.3 5.6
9250 15.3 59.5 290 16 8 10.9 6.0 | 16.6 61.9 280 14 7 10.8 5.9
9000 16.1 61.0 290 16 8 10.2 5.6 | 17.4 63.3 280 14 7 10.0 5.5
8750 16.8 62.2 290 16 8 9.2 5.1 | 18.1 64.6 280 14 7 9.1 5.0
8500 17.5 63.5 290 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 18.8 65.8 280 14 7 9.3 5.1
8250 18.2 64.8 290 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 19.5 67.1 280 14 7 9.4 5.1
8000 18.9 66.0 290 16 8 9.9 5.4 | 20.2 68.4 280 14 7 9.6 5.2
7750 19.7 67.5 290 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 20.9 69.6 280 13 7 9.7 5.3
7500 20.4 68.7 290 16 8 10.1 5.6 | 21.7 71.1 280 13 7 9.8 5.4
7250 21.2 70.2 290 16 8 10.6 5.8 | 22.4 72.3 280 13 7 9.8 5.4
7000 22.0 71.6 290 15 8 10.7 5.9 | 23.1 73.6 280 12 6 9.8 5.4
6750 22.8 73.0 290 15 8 10.4 5.7 | 23.8 74.8 280 12 6 9.8 5.4
6500 23.7 74.7 290 14 7 16.3 9.0 | 24.6 76.3 280 11 6 9.4 5.2
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0707 MDT Sunday September 21 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, September 21, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 75.5 F/24.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 947 ft/min (4.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16394 ft MSL (10720 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 85.0 F/29.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15028 ft MSL (9354 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 09/22....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:54:16 / 19:04:32 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 10 min 16 sec (730 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:59:24 MDT... 55.34 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/21/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14038 ft MSL (8364 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18245 ft MSL (12571 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17100 ft MSL (11426 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.2
K index......................... +15.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.2 -90.8 290 41 21 3.6 2.0 76.1 169.0 27.4 M M
45000 -60.8 -77.4 290 59 30 7.1 3.9 64.0 147.2 21.8 M M
40000 -50.2 -58.4 295 70 36 7.2 4.0 58.3 137.0 19.4 M M
38000 -45.9 -50.6 290 68 35 7.2 4.0 55.9 132.6 18.3 M M
36000 -41.5 -42.7 285 66 34 7.3 4.0 54.1 129.3 17.4 M M
34000 -37.0 -34.6 285 62 32 6.7 3.7 51.0 123.8 15.7 M M
32000 -33.0 -27.4 290 58 30 6.6 3.6 48.7 119.7 14.4 M M
30000 -28.8 -19.8 290 53 27 7.0 3.9 46.4 115.5 13.0 M M
29000 -26.7 -16.1 290 51 26 7.0 3.9 45.4 113.7 12.3 M M
28000 -24.6 -12.3 290 48 25 7.5 4.1 44.5 112.1 11.8 M M
27000 -22.3 -8.1 290 46 24 7.9 4.3 43.7 110.6 11.3 M M
26000 -19.9 -3.8 295 44 23 7.9 4.3 43.0 109.3 10.8 M M
25000 -17.6 0.3 295 43 22 7.9 4.3 42.4 108.3 10.4 M M
24000 -15.2 4.6 295 41 21 7.9 4.3 41.6 107.0 10.0 M M
23000 -12.8 9.0 290 38 20 7.9 4.3 41.0 105.7 9.5 M M
22000 -9.9 14.2 285 36 18 5.8 3.2 40.2 104.4 9.0 M M
21000 -8.8 16.2 285 31 16 3.6 2.0 38.0 100.3 7.2 M M
20000 -7.7 18.1 290 27 14 3.6 2.0 35.8 96.5 5.5 M M
19500 -7.2 19.0 290 25 13 3.4 1.9 34.8 94.7 4.6 M M
19000 -6.4 20.5 290 24 12 6.5 3.6 34.0 93.2 3.9 M M
18500 -5.5 22.1 285 23 12 6.2 3.4 33.4 92.1 3.4 M M
18000 -4.6 23.7 285 22 11 5.3 2.9 32.8 91.1 2.9 M M
17500 -4.0 24.8 290 21 11 4.5 2.5 31.9 89.4 2.1 M M
17000 -3.3 26.1 290 21 11 4.7 2.6 31.0 87.8 1.2 M M
16500 -2.9 26.8 295 21 11 2.0 1.1 29.9 85.8 0.2 M M
16000 -2.7 27.1 295 21 11 2.4 1.3 28.7 83.6 -1.0 928 4.7
15500 -2.4 27.7 295 21 11 4.3 2.4 27.6 81.6 -2.2 904 4.6
15000 -1.7 28.9 295 21 11 5.0 2.8 26.7 80.1 -3.0 871 4.4
14500 -1.1 30.0 295 22 11 6.5 3.5 26.0 78.8 -3.9 838 4.3
14000 0.0 32.0 295 21 11 8.4 4.6 25.7 78.3 -4.2 788 4.0
13500 1.2 34.2 300 21 11 8.7 4.8 25.5 77.9 -4.5 737 3.7
13000 2.6 36.7 300 21 11 9.9 5.4 25.4 77.8 -4.6 681 3.5
12500 4.1 39.4 305 20 10 9.8 5.4 25.5 77.8 -4.6 622 3.2
12000 5.5 41.9 305 19 10 9.3 5.1 25.4 77.8 -4.6 565 2.9
11500 6.9 44.4 310 18 9 9.4 5.1 25.4 77.7 -4.7 508 2.6
11000 8.3 46.9 310 16 8 9.6 5.3 25.3 77.6 -4.8 450 2.3
10500 9.8 49.6 310 15 8 9.6 5.3 25.3 77.6 -4.8 393 2.0
10250 10.5 50.9 310 15 7 9.2 5.1 25.3 77.5 -4.8 364 1.9
10000 11.2 52.2 310 14 7 8.9 4.9 25.2 77.4 -4.9 337 1.7
9750 11.8 53.2 315 13 7 8.9 4.9 25.2 77.3 -5.0 310 1.6
9500 12.5 54.5 315 13 6 9.3 5.1 25.1 77.2 -5.1 282 1.4
9250 13.2 55.8 315 12 6 8.8 4.8 25.1 77.1 -5.1 254 1.3
9000 13.8 56.8 315 11 6 8.0 4.4 25.0 76.9 -5.2 229 1.2
8750 14.4 57.9 315 10 5 8.4 4.6 24.8 76.7 -5.4 203 1.0
8500 15.0 59.0 315 9 5 7.4 4.1 24.7 76.5 -5.5 177 0.9
8250 15.9 60.6 310 8 4 6.6 3.6 24.2 75.6 -6.1 134 0.7
8000 16.4 61.5 305 7 4 7.2 4.0 24.0 75.2 -6.3 112 0.6
7750 17.0 62.6 300 7 3 6.2 3.4 23.8 74.8 -6.5 89 0.5
7500 17.3 63.1 300 6 3 4.3 2.4 23.4 74.2 -6.9 70 0.4
7250 17.6 63.7 295 5 3 3.7 2.1 23.0 73.4 -7.3 54 0.3
7000 17.9 64.2 285 4 2 3.7 2.0 22.5 72.6 -7.8 38 0.2
6750 18.2 64.8 265 4 2 4.2 2.3 22.1 71.8 -8.3 23 0.1
6500 18.5 65.3 250 3 2 4.4 2.4 21.7 71.0 -8.7 5 0.0
6250 18.9 66.0 230 3 1 4.9 2.7 21.3 70.3 -9.1 M M
6000 19.1 66.4 215 2 1 -2.8 -1.5 20.8 69.4 -9.6 M M
5750 17.3 63.1 185 3 1 -55.7 -30.6 18.3 64.9 -12.2 20 0.1
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/21/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.7 | CAPE... +0.9 LI... +2.9
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +15.3 | CINH... -0.8 K Index... +12.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.7 -89.9 285 36 19 3.1 1.7 | -68.0 -90.4 285 38 20 2.4 1.3
45000 -60.7 -77.3 290 59 30 7.2 4.0 | -61.6 -78.9 290 59 30 7.9 4.3
40000 -50.0 -58.0 290 73 37 7.0 3.8 | -49.9 -57.8 285 66 34 6.8 3.8
38000 -45.8 -50.4 290 68 35 7.0 3.8 | -45.8 -50.4 285 63 33 6.8 3.8
36000 -41.6 -42.9 285 64 33 7.0 3.9 | -41.2 -42.2 285 61 31 6.8 3.8
34000 -37.1 -34.8 285 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -37.1 -34.8 280 55 28 6.8 3.8
32000 -33.0 -27.4 285 54 28 6.8 3.7 | -33.0 -27.4 280 49 25 6.8 3.8
30000 -29.2 -20.6 285 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -28.9 -20.0 275 44 22 6.9 3.8
29000 -27.2 -17.0 285 44 23 6.4 3.5 | -26.9 -16.4 275 41 21 6.9 3.8
28000 -25.3 -13.5 285 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -24.8 -12.6 275 39 20 7.3 4.0
27000 -22.9 -9.2 285 38 20 8.1 4.4 | -22.6 -8.7 275 35 18 7.5 4.1
26000 -20.5 -4.9 290 36 19 8.1 4.4 | -20.3 -4.5 280 31 16 7.5 4.1
25000 -18.1 -0.6 290 34 18 8.1 4.4 | -18.1 -0.6 280 27 14 7.5 4.1
24000 -15.6 3.9 290 33 17 8.3 4.6 | -15.8 3.6 280 26 13 8.0 4.4
23000 -13.1 8.4 290 32 16 8.4 4.6 | -13.4 7.9 280 25 13 8.0 4.4
22000 -10.0 14.0 285 31 16 6.3 3.4 | -10.4 13.3 280 25 13 6.2 3.4
21000 -8.6 16.5 290 28 14 4.6 2.5 | -8.9 16.0 285 24 12 5.0 2.7
20000 -7.2 19.0 290 25 13 4.6 2.5 | -7.4 18.7 290 23 12 5.0 2.7
19500 -6.5 20.3 290 24 12 4.6 2.5 | -6.7 19.9 290 23 12 5.0 2.7
19000 -5.8 21.6 295 23 12 5.3 2.9 | -5.9 21.4 290 22 11 5.6 3.1
18500 -5.0 23.0 295 21 11 5.2 2.8 | -5.1 22.8 295 21 11 5.5 3.0
18000 -4.2 24.4 295 20 10 4.6 2.5 | -4.3 24.3 295 20 10 5.2 2.9
17500 -3.7 25.3 295 19 10 4.2 2.3 | -3.5 25.7 295 19 10 5.0 2.8
17000 -3.1 26.4 300 19 10 4.3 2.4 | -2.8 27.0 295 18 9 5.0 2.8
16500 -2.7 27.1 300 19 10 1.1 0.6 | -2.3 27.9 295 18 9 3.0 1.7
16000 -2.6 27.3 300 19 10 1.6 0.9 | -1.8 28.8 295 18 9 3.4 1.9
15500 -2.4 27.7 300 19 10 3.5 1.9 | -1.4 29.5 295 18 9 3.4 1.8
15000 -2.0 28.4 300 19 10 4.2 2.3 | -1.1 30.0 295 18 9 3.7 2.0
14500 -1.6 29.1 300 19 10 6.2 3.4 | -0.7 30.7 290 18 9 5.4 3.0
14000 -0.4 31.3 300 19 10 8.4 4.6 | 0.3 32.5 290 18 9 7.1 3.9
13500 0.8 33.4 295 18 9 8.7 4.8 | 1.2 34.2 290 17 9 7.6 4.2
13000 2.2 36.0 295 18 9 9.8 5.4 | 2.5 36.5 290 17 9 9.1 5.0
12500 3.7 38.7 295 17 9 9.8 5.4 | 3.8 38.8 290 16 8 9.0 5.0
12000 5.1 41.2 295 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 5.1 41.2 290 16 8 9.5 5.2
11500 6.6 43.9 295 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 6.5 43.7 290 15 8 9.4 5.2
11000 8.0 46.4 295 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 8.0 46.4 290 15 8 9.9 5.4
10500 9.5 49.1 295 15 8 9.9 5.5 | 9.4 48.9 295 14 7 9.3 5.1
10250 10.2 50.4 295 14 7 9.2 5.0 | 10.1 50.2 290 14 7 9.0 5.0
10000 10.9 51.6 295 14 7 8.4 4.6 | 10.8 51.4 295 14 7 9.3 5.1
9750 11.5 52.7 295 14 7 8.3 4.6 | 11.5 52.7 295 13 7 9.2 5.0
9500 12.1 53.8 295 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 12.2 54.0 295 13 7 9.4 5.2
9250 12.9 55.2 290 13 7 9.0 4.9 | 12.9 55.2 290 13 6 9.6 5.3
9000 13.5 56.3 290 13 6 7.4 4.0 | 13.6 56.5 295 12 6 9.4 5.2
8750 14.0 57.2 290 12 6 8.0 4.4 | 14.3 57.7 295 12 6 9.8 5.4
8500 14.6 58.3 290 11 6 7.0 3.8 | 15.6 60.1 295 11 5 8.7 4.8
8250 15.5 59.9 285 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 16.3 61.3 295 10 5 10.2 5.6
8000 15.9 60.6 280 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 17.1 62.8 295 10 5 10.3 5.6
7750 16.4 61.5 280 7 4 5.1 2.8 | 17.8 64.0 295 9 5 9.7 5.3
7500 16.7 62.1 275 6 3 3.6 1.9 | 18.5 65.3 295 9 5 9.3 5.1
7250 17.0 62.6 270 5 3 5.3 2.9 | 19.3 66.7 295 9 4 10.4 5.7
7000 17.4 63.3 260 5 2 6.4 3.5 | 20.1 68.2 295 8 4 11.0 6.0
6750 17.9 64.2 250 4 2 5.9 3.2 | 20.9 69.6 295 8 4 10.2 5.6
6500 18.3 64.9 245 4 2 5.6 3.1 | 21.6 70.9 295 8 4 9.9 5.4
6250 18.8 65.8 235 3 2 7.2 4.0 | 22.3 72.1 295 7 4 9.5 5.2
6000 19.5 67.1 230 3 2 12.5 6.8 | 23.1 73.6 295 7 3 13.7 7.5
5750 20.6 69.1 225 3 2 19.5 10.7 | 25.1 77.2 300 6 3 47.9 26.3
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/21/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +8.8 LI... +2.3 | CAPE... +7.0 LI... +2.5
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +25.2 | CINH... -0.8 K Index... +22.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.1 -90.6 275 45 23 2.5 1.4 | -68.1 -90.6 275 47 24 3.0 1.6
45000 -61.4 -78.5 280 65 33 8.0 4.4 | -61.1 -78.0 275 64 33 7.5 4.1
40000 -49.6 -57.3 280 66 34 6.8 3.8 | -49.9 -57.8 275 68 35 7.4 4.0
38000 -45.5 -49.9 280 66 34 6.8 3.8 | -45.5 -49.9 275 67 34 7.4 4.0
36000 -41.4 -42.5 280 67 34 6.9 3.8 | -41.1 -42.0 275 65 34 7.5 4.1
34000 -37.1 -34.8 275 57 29 6.4 3.5 | -36.8 -34.2 275 57 29 6.3 3.5
32000 -33.2 -27.8 270 47 24 6.3 3.5 | -33.0 -27.4 270 48 25 6.2 3.4
30000 -29.0 -20.2 270 42 22 7.3 4.0 | -28.7 -19.7 270 45 23 7.3 4.0
29000 -26.8 -16.2 270 40 21 7.3 4.0 | -26.6 -15.9 270 44 23 7.4 4.0
28000 -24.6 -12.3 270 38 20 7.2 4.0 | -24.4 -11.9 270 42 22 7.1 3.9
27000 -22.5 -8.5 270 34 18 7.2 4.0 | -22.3 -8.1 270 38 20 6.9 3.8
26000 -20.3 -4.5 270 31 16 7.2 4.0 | -20.2 -4.4 275 34 18 6.9 3.8
25000 -18.2 -0.8 270 27 14 7.2 4.0 | -18.1 -0.6 275 31 16 6.9 3.8
24000 -16.0 3.2 270 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -15.9 3.4 280 29 15 7.4 4.1
23000 -13.8 7.2 275 24 12 7.3 4.0 | -13.7 7.3 280 27 14 7.4 4.1
22000 -11.6 11.1 275 23 12 7.4 4.1 | -11.5 11.3 280 26 13 7.7 4.2
21000 -9.4 15.1 280 22 11 5.6 3.1 | -9.5 14.9 280 23 12 4.9 2.7
20000 -7.8 18.0 285 22 11 5.6 3.1 | -8.0 17.6 285 21 11 5.0 2.7
19500 -6.9 19.6 290 22 11 5.6 3.1 | -7.3 18.9 285 20 10 5.3 2.9
19000 -6.2 20.8 290 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -7.1 19.2 285 18 9 -0.8 -0.4
18500 -5.4 22.3 290 21 11 5.2 2.9 | -7.2 19.0 285 17 9 0.5 0.3
18000 -4.6 23.7 290 21 11 2.8 1.5 | -7.3 18.9 285 15 8 4.0 2.2
17500 -4.6 23.7 290 20 10 1.2 0.7 | -6.4 20.5 285 14 7 6.5 3.6
17000 -4.6 23.7 290 20 10 1.8 1.0 | -5.4 22.3 280 14 7 6.7 3.7
16500 -4.1 24.6 285 19 10 6.3 3.5 | -4.2 24.4 280 14 7 9.8 5.4
16000 -3.3 26.1 285 18 9 6.0 3.3 | -2.8 27.0 280 13 7 9.5 5.2
15500 -2.4 27.7 280 17 9 8.5 4.7 | -1.4 29.5 280 13 7 9.8 5.3
15000 -1.1 30.0 280 16 8 9.0 4.9 | 0.1 32.2 280 13 7 9.8 5.4
14500 0.3 32.5 280 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 1.5 34.7 280 13 7 9.7 5.3
14000 1.7 35.1 280 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 3.0 37.4 280 13 7 9.6 5.3
13500 3.1 37.6 280 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 4.4 39.9 280 13 7 9.7 5.3
13000 4.5 40.1 280 15 8 9.6 5.2 | 5.9 42.6 280 13 7 9.9 5.5
12500 5.9 42.6 280 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 7.3 45.1 280 13 6 9.9 5.5
12000 7.4 45.3 280 14 7 9.8 5.4 | 8.8 47.8 280 12 6 9.7 5.3
11500 8.8 47.8 280 14 7 9.8 5.4 | 10.3 50.5 280 12 6 9.7 5.3
11000 10.2 50.4 280 13 7 9.2 5.0 | 11.7 53.1 280 12 6 9.1 5.0
10500 11.7 53.1 280 13 7 10.2 5.6 | 13.1 55.6 280 12 6 10.0 5.5
10250 12.4 54.3 280 13 7 10.0 5.5 | 13.8 56.8 280 12 6 9.9 5.4
10000 13.1 55.6 280 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 14.6 58.3 280 12 6 9.6 5.3
9750 13.9 57.0 280 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 15.3 59.5 280 12 6 9.5 5.2
9500 14.6 58.3 280 12 6 10.0 5.5 | 16.0 60.8 280 12 6 10.1 5.5
9250 15.3 59.5 280 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 16.8 62.2 285 12 6 9.8 5.4
9000 16.1 61.0 280 12 6 9.6 5.3 | 17.4 63.3 285 12 6 9.1 5.0
8750 16.8 62.2 280 11 6 10.3 5.6 | 18.1 64.6 285 12 6 8.7 4.8
8500 17.5 63.5 275 11 6 8.3 4.6 | 18.8 65.8 285 12 6 10.6 5.8
8250 18.1 64.6 275 11 6 8.7 4.8 | 19.7 67.5 285 12 6 10.9 6.0
8000 19.7 67.5 275 10 5 10.5 5.8 | 21.1 70.0 285 12 6 9.8 5.4
7750 20.4 68.7 275 10 5 9.9 5.5 | 21.8 71.2 285 12 6 9.3 5.1
7500 21.1 70.0 275 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 22.5 72.5 285 12 6 8.9 4.9
7250 21.8 71.2 275 10 5 10.2 5.6 | 23.2 73.8 285 12 6 9.8 5.4
7000 22.6 72.7 275 9 5 11.1 6.1 | 23.9 75.0 285 12 6 10.6 5.8
6750 23.5 74.3 275 9 5 10.4 5.7 | 24.7 76.5 285 12 6 10.2 5.6
6500 24.2 75.6 275 9 4 10.2 5.6 | 25.5 77.9 285 11 6 9.9 5.4
6250 25.0 77.0 275 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 26.2 79.2 285 11 6 10.6 5.8
6000 25.7 78.3 275 8 4 13.8 7.6 | 27.0 80.6 285 10 5 11.9 6.5
5750 27.8 82.0 275 7 4 52.6 28.9 | 27.8 82.0 285 9 5 9.5 5.2
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0707 MDT Sunday September 21 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, September 21, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 71.1 F/21.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 878 ft/min (4.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16589 ft MSL (10132 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15062 ft MSL (8604 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 09/22....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:52:06 / 19:02:28 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 10 min 22 sec (730 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:57:17 MDT... 54.76 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/21/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14214 ft MSL (7757 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17652 ft MSL (11195 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17211 ft MSL (10754 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.3
K index......................... +0.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.4 -89.3 285 46 23 3.6 2.0 74.8 166.6 27.8 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 285 62 32 6.3 3.5 62.1 143.7 21.8 M M
40000 -50.6 -59.1 295 72 37 7.3 4.0 54.9 130.8 18.4 M M
38000 -46.2 -51.2 290 73 37 7.4 4.0 52.6 126.6 17.3 M M
36000 -41.8 -43.2 290 73 38 7.4 4.1 50.9 123.6 16.5 M M
34000 -37.8 -36.0 290 69 35 6.6 3.6 48.2 118.7 15.0 M M
32000 -33.8 -28.8 290 63 32 6.7 3.6 45.9 114.5 13.6 M M
30000 -29.5 -21.1 295 57 29 7.3 4.0 43.7 110.7 12.3 M M
29000 -26.7 -16.1 295 54 28 7.4 4.0 42.6 108.7 11.6 M M
28000 -24.5 -12.1 300 51 26 7.9 4.3 41.9 107.3 11.1 M M
27000 -22.1 -7.8 295 50 26 8.0 4.4 41.1 105.9 10.6 M M
26000 -19.7 -3.5 295 49 25 8.0 4.4 40.4 104.8 10.2 M M
25000 -17.3 0.9 295 48 25 7.8 4.3 39.9 103.8 9.9 M M
24000 -15.5 4.1 290 45 23 5.5 3.0 38.4 101.2 8.8 M M
23000 -13.8 7.2 290 41 21 5.5 3.0 36.9 98.4 7.6 M M
22000 -12.2 10.0 290 38 20 5.5 3.0 35.5 95.9 6.5 M M
21000 -10.5 13.1 290 34 17 5.5 3.0 33.9 93.1 5.2 M M
20000 -8.9 16.0 290 29 15 5.5 3.0 32.4 90.4 4.0 M M
19500 -8.1 17.4 295 27 14 5.4 2.9 31.7 89.1 3.4 M M
19000 -7.2 19.0 295 26 13 6.7 3.7 31.1 88.0 2.9 M M
18500 -6.2 20.8 295 25 13 6.8 3.7 30.6 87.0 2.4 M M
18000 -5.2 22.6 295 24 12 6.5 3.6 30.1 86.1 2.0 M M
17500 -4.3 24.3 295 23 12 5.4 3.0 29.4 84.9 1.4 M M
17000 -3.5 25.7 300 23 12 5.6 3.1 28.7 83.6 0.7 M M
16500 -2.8 27.0 300 23 12 3.5 1.9 27.8 82.1 -0.1 876 4.5
16000 -2.4 27.7 300 23 12 3.5 1.9 26.8 80.2 -1.1 848 4.3
15500 -1.9 28.6 300 23 12 4.1 2.3 25.8 78.4 -2.1 819 4.2
15000 -1.3 29.7 305 24 12 4.8 2.6 24.9 76.8 -3.0 786 4.0
14500 -0.7 30.7 305 25 13 5.4 2.9 24.1 75.4 -3.8 753 3.8
14000 0.3 32.5 305 25 13 7.6 4.2 23.6 74.5 -4.4 710 3.6
13500 1.3 34.3 305 25 13 7.5 4.1 23.3 73.9 -4.8 664 3.4
13000 2.4 36.3 305 25 13 8.6 4.7 23.0 73.4 -5.2 615 3.1
12500 3.7 38.7 310 24 12 8.4 4.6 22.8 73.0 -5.4 563 2.9
12000 5.7 42.3 310 23 12 9.6 5.3 22.7 72.8 -5.7 480 2.4
11500 7.1 44.8 315 22 11 9.7 5.3 22.7 72.8 -5.7 423 2.1
11000 8.6 47.5 315 21 11 9.6 5.3 22.6 72.8 -5.8 365 1.9
10500 10.0 50.0 315 20 10 9.6 5.2 22.6 72.8 -5.8 307 1.6
10250 10.7 51.3 315 19 10 9.3 5.1 22.6 72.7 -5.9 279 1.4
10000 11.4 52.5 315 18 9 9.2 5.1 22.6 72.6 -5.9 250 1.3
9750 12.1 53.8 315 17 9 9.4 5.2 22.5 72.6 -6.0 222 1.1
9500 12.8 55.0 315 16 8 8.8 4.8 22.5 72.5 -6.0 194 1.0
9250 13.4 56.1 315 15 8 7.5 4.1 22.4 72.3 -6.2 169 0.9
9000 13.9 57.0 315 14 7 6.9 3.8 22.2 71.9 -6.4 146 0.7
8750 14.4 57.9 315 12 6 7.7 4.2 22.0 71.6 -6.6 123 0.6
8500 14.9 58.8 315 11 6 4.6 2.5 21.8 71.2 -6.8 100 0.5
8250 15.1 59.2 315 9 5 1.8 1.0 21.2 70.2 -7.4 88 0.4
8000 15.2 59.4 320 8 4 2.8 1.5 20.7 69.2 -8.0 75 0.4
7750 15.4 59.7 325 6 3 2.6 1.4 20.1 68.2 -8.6 62 0.3
7500 15.6 60.1 335 5 3 2.6 1.4 19.6 67.2 -9.2 50 0.3
7250 15.8 60.4 345 5 2 2.0 1.1 19.0 66.2 -9.7 37 0.2
7000 15.9 60.6 355 4 2 3.4 1.9 18.4 65.2 -10.4 26 0.1
6750 16.0 60.8 010 4 2 -5.5 -3.0 17.8 64.0 -11.0 16 0.1
6500 13.5 56.3 025 3 2 -75.7 -41.6 14.6 58.3 -14.2 82 0.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/21/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.2 | CAPE... +2.1 LI... +2.5
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +0.9 | CINH... -1.3 K Index... +7.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.2 -89.0 285 42 22 3.1 1.7 | -67.7 -89.9 280 39 20 2.4 1.3
45000 -60.4 -76.7 290 64 33 6.8 3.7 | -61.2 -78.2 285 61 31 7.8 4.3
40000 -50.2 -58.4 290 77 40 7.0 3.8 | -49.7 -57.5 285 71 37 6.6 3.6
38000 -46.0 -50.8 290 73 38 7.0 3.8 | -45.7 -50.3 285 69 35 6.6 3.6
36000 -41.8 -43.2 290 69 36 7.0 3.9 | -41.7 -43.1 285 66 34 6.6 3.6
34000 -37.8 -36.0 285 65 33 6.6 3.6 | -37.7 -35.9 285 61 31 6.6 3.6
32000 -33.8 -28.8 285 60 31 6.6 3.6 | -33.7 -28.7 280 56 29 6.6 3.6
30000 -29.8 -21.6 290 53 27 6.9 3.8 | -29.9 -21.8 280 49 25 6.4 3.5
29000 -27.2 -17.0 295 48 25 6.9 3.8 | -27.5 -17.5 285 44 23 6.4 3.5
28000 -25.1 -13.2 295 45 23 7.9 4.3 | -25.4 -13.7 285 41 21 8.0 4.4
27000 -22.7 -8.9 295 44 23 8.1 4.5 | -23.0 -9.4 285 39 20 8.2 4.5
26000 -20.2 -4.4 295 43 22 8.1 4.5 | -20.5 -4.9 285 37 19 8.2 4.5
25000 -17.8 -0.0 295 42 21 8.0 4.4 | -18.1 -0.6 285 35 18 8.2 4.5
24000 -15.6 3.9 290 40 21 7.2 4.0 | -15.7 3.7 285 34 17 7.9 4.3
23000 -13.4 7.9 290 38 20 7.3 4.0 | -13.3 8.1 285 33 17 7.9 4.4
22000 -11.2 11.8 285 37 19 6.6 3.6 | -10.9 12.4 285 32 16 7.1 3.9
21000 -9.8 14.4 290 32 17 4.2 2.3 | -9.5 14.9 285 29 15 4.3 2.4
20000 -8.5 16.7 290 28 14 4.2 2.3 | -8.1 17.4 290 26 13 4.3 2.4
19500 -7.9 17.8 295 25 13 4.0 2.2 | -7.5 18.5 295 25 13 4.2 2.3
19000 -7.1 19.2 295 24 12 6.8 3.7 | -6.7 19.9 295 23 12 6.4 3.5
18500 -6.1 21.0 300 23 12 7.0 3.8 | -5.7 21.7 300 22 11 6.5 3.5
18000 -5.0 23.0 300 22 11 6.7 3.7 | -4.8 23.4 300 20 10 6.2 3.4
17500 -4.2 24.4 300 21 11 5.7 3.1 | -4.0 24.8 305 19 10 5.5 3.0
17000 -3.3 26.1 305 21 11 6.0 3.3 | -3.2 26.2 305 19 10 5.8 3.2
16500 -2.6 27.3 305 21 11 3.3 1.8 | -2.5 27.5 305 19 10 2.8 1.5
16000 -2.2 28.0 305 22 11 3.4 1.9 | -2.2 28.0 310 19 10 3.1 1.7
15500 -1.8 28.8 305 23 12 3.4 1.9 | -1.9 28.6 310 20 10 3.7 2.0
15000 -1.4 29.5 305 24 12 3.6 2.0 | -1.4 29.5 305 20 10 4.1 2.3
14500 -1.0 30.2 300 25 13 4.6 2.5 | -0.9 30.4 305 20 10 5.2 2.8
14000 -0.1 31.8 300 25 13 7.5 4.1 | 0.1 32.2 305 20 10 8.3 4.5
13500 0.9 33.6 305 25 13 7.4 4.1 | 1.2 34.2 300 19 10 8.2 4.5
13000 2.1 35.8 305 24 13 9.5 5.2 | 2.5 36.5 300 18 9 9.1 5.0
12500 3.5 38.3 305 23 12 9.3 5.1 | 3.9 39.0 295 17 9 9.0 4.9
12000 5.6 42.1 310 21 11 9.3 5.1 | 5.9 42.6 295 16 8 9.6 5.2
11500 7.0 44.6 310 20 10 9.5 5.2 | 7.3 45.1 290 15 8 8.7 4.8
11000 8.4 47.1 310 19 10 9.2 5.1 | 8.6 47.5 290 15 7 9.1 5.0
10500 9.8 49.6 310 18 9 8.4 4.6 | 10.0 50.0 290 14 7 9.5 5.2
10250 10.3 50.5 305 17 9 7.8 4.3 | 10.7 51.3 285 14 7 9.6 5.3
10000 11.0 51.8 305 16 8 8.6 4.7 | 11.4 52.5 285 13 7 9.2 5.0
9750 11.6 52.9 305 15 8 8.7 4.8 | 12.1 53.8 285 13 7 9.1 5.0
9500 12.2 54.0 300 14 7 7.5 4.1 | 12.8 55.0 285 12 6 9.8 5.4
9250 12.7 54.9 300 13 7 5.6 3.1 | 13.5 56.3 280 12 6 10.0 5.5
9000 13.1 55.6 295 12 6 5.4 2.9 | 14.2 57.6 280 12 6 9.5 5.2
8750 13.5 56.3 295 11 6 5.6 3.1 | 14.9 58.8 280 12 6 9.6 5.3
8500 13.8 56.8 295 10 5 3.5 1.9 | 15.7 60.3 280 11 6 9.8 5.4
8250 14.0 57.2 300 8 4 2.5 1.4 | 16.4 61.5 280 11 6 10.1 5.5
8000 14.3 57.7 300 7 4 4.6 2.5 | 17.2 63.0 280 11 6 10.1 5.6
7750 14.6 58.3 305 6 3 5.2 2.9 | 17.9 64.2 275 10 5 10.3 5.6
7500 15.0 59.0 310 5 3 5.4 2.9 | 18.7 65.7 275 10 5 10.3 5.6
7250 15.4 59.7 320 4 2 5.5 3.0 | 19.5 67.1 275 10 5 10.7 5.9
7000 15.8 60.4 330 4 2 6.7 3.7 | 20.2 68.4 275 9 5 8.9 4.9
6750 16.4 61.5 325 3 2 11.8 6.5 | 20.9 69.6 270 9 5 13.1 7.2
6500 17.7 63.9 330 3 2 24.4 13.4 | 23.3 73.9 270 8 4 61.8 33.9
09/21/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/21/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +4.3 LI... +1.8 | CAPE... +0.8 LI... +1.8
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +19.2 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +17.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.4 -89.3 280 45 23 2.2 1.2 | -67.7 -89.9 280 49 25 2.6 1.5
45000 -61.1 -78.0 280 66 34 7.7 4.2 | -61.0 -77.8 280 68 35 7.6 4.1
40000 -49.7 -57.5 280 73 38 6.8 3.7 | -49.7 -57.5 275 71 37 7.0 3.9
38000 -45.7 -50.3 280 72 37 6.8 3.7 | -45.5 -49.9 280 71 36 7.0 3.9
36000 -41.6 -42.9 285 70 36 6.8 3.7 | -41.3 -42.3 280 70 36 7.1 3.9
34000 -37.7 -35.9 280 62 32 6.4 3.5 | -37.5 -35.5 275 62 32 6.2 3.4
32000 -33.9 -29.0 275 54 28 6.4 3.5 | -33.8 -28.8 275 54 28 6.2 3.4
30000 -29.9 -21.8 275 47 24 6.7 3.7 | -29.6 -21.3 270 48 25 7.3 4.0
29000 -27.4 -17.3 275 44 23 6.7 3.7 | -26.9 -16.4 270 45 23 7.3 4.0
28000 -25.3 -13.5 275 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -24.7 -12.5 270 42 22 7.3 4.0
27000 -22.9 -9.2 275 37 19 7.9 4.3 | -22.5 -8.5 275 38 20 7.3 4.0
26000 -20.6 -5.1 275 33 17 7.9 4.3 | -20.3 -4.5 275 34 18 7.3 4.0
25000 -18.2 -0.8 275 30 15 7.8 4.3 | -18.2 -0.8 275 30 15 7.3 4.0
24000 -15.9 3.4 275 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -16.0 3.2 275 28 15 7.2 3.9
23000 -13.7 7.3 280 28 15 7.5 4.1 | -13.8 7.2 280 27 14 7.2 3.9
22000 -11.4 11.5 280 28 14 6.9 3.8 | -11.7 10.9 280 26 13 6.7 3.7
21000 -9.9 14.2 285 26 13 4.9 2.7 | -10.2 13.6 280 24 12 4.6 2.5
20000 -8.4 16.9 290 24 13 4.9 2.7 | -8.8 16.2 285 21 11 4.6 2.5
19500 -7.7 18.1 295 24 12 4.9 2.7 | -8.1 17.4 290 20 10 4.6 2.5
19000 -6.9 19.6 295 23 12 4.9 2.7 | -7.4 18.7 295 19 10 4.9 2.7
18500 -6.2 20.8 295 21 11 5.0 2.7 | -6.7 19.9 295 18 9 5.0 2.7
18000 -5.5 22.1 300 20 10 4.8 2.7 | -6.0 21.2 295 16 8 5.2 2.9
17500 -4.9 23.2 300 19 10 4.3 2.4 | -5.2 22.6 295 16 8 6.0 3.3
17000 -4.4 24.1 305 17 9 4.6 2.5 | -4.4 24.1 290 15 8 6.2 3.4
16500 -3.7 25.3 305 16 8 5.6 3.1 | -3.5 25.7 285 15 8 7.4 4.0
16000 -3.0 26.6 305 15 8 5.8 3.2 | -2.5 27.5 285 15 7 7.5 4.1
15500 -2.2 28.0 305 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -1.5 29.3 280 14 7 8.2 4.5
15000 -1.0 30.2 305 15 7 8.3 4.6 | -0.2 31.6 280 14 7 8.7 4.8
14500 0.2 32.4 300 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 1.1 34.0 280 14 7 8.7 4.8
14000 1.6 34.9 300 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 2.4 36.3 280 14 7 8.7 4.8
13500 3.0 37.4 300 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 3.7 38.7 280 14 7 8.7 4.8
13000 4.4 39.9 300 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 5.0 41.0 285 15 8 9.1 5.0
12500 5.9 42.6 300 14 7 9.6 5.2 | 6.3 43.3 285 15 8 9.0 4.9
12000 7.3 45.1 295 14 7 9.8 5.4 | 7.7 45.9 285 15 8 9.6 5.3
11500 9.5 49.1 295 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 9.9 49.8 285 16 8 9.6 5.3
11000 10.9 51.6 295 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 11.3 52.3 285 16 8 9.6 5.3
10500 12.3 54.1 290 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 12.7 54.9 285 16 8 9.6 5.3
10250 13.1 55.6 290 14 7 9.6 5.2 | 13.5 56.3 285 17 9 9.7 5.3
10000 13.8 56.8 290 15 7 9.8 5.4 | 14.2 57.6 285 17 9 9.6 5.3
9750 14.5 58.1 285 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 14.9 58.8 285 17 9 9.6 5.2
9500 15.2 59.4 285 15 8 10.2 5.6 | 15.6 60.1 285 17 9 9.9 5.4
9250 16.0 60.8 285 15 8 10.1 5.6 | 16.4 61.5 285 17 9 9.9 5.4
9000 16.7 62.1 285 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 17.1 62.8 285 17 9 9.6 5.3
8750 17.5 63.5 280 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 17.8 64.0 285 17 9 9.7 5.3
8500 18.2 64.8 280 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 18.6 65.5 285 17 9 9.5 5.2
8250 18.9 66.0 280 15 8 10.0 5.5 | 19.3 66.7 285 18 9 9.5 5.2
8000 19.7 67.5 280 16 8 10.4 5.7 | 20.0 68.0 285 17 9 9.7 5.3
7750 20.5 68.9 275 16 8 10.5 5.7 | 20.7 69.3 285 17 9 9.8 5.4
7500 21.2 70.2 275 15 8 10.4 5.7 | 21.4 70.5 285 17 9 9.8 5.4
7250 22.0 71.6 275 15 8 10.7 5.9 | 22.2 72.0 285 17 9 9.8 5.4
7000 22.8 73.0 275 15 8 9.2 5.1 | 22.9 73.2 285 16 8 9.4 5.1
6750 23.5 74.3 275 15 8 13.7 7.5 | 23.6 74.5 285 15 8 9.5 5.2
6500 25.8 78.4 270 13 7 59.4 32.6 | 24.4 75.9 285 13 7 16.2 8.9
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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