Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1915 MDT Sunday June 13 2021
This forecast is for Monday, June 14, 2021:
If the trigger temperature of 88.5 F/31.4 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1549 ft/min (7.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 21696 ft MSL (16018 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 100.0 F/38.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ More than 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18118 ft MSL (12440 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 06/15...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:51:56 / 20:21:51 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 29 min 56 sec (869 min 56 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:06:54 MDT... 78.17 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/14/2021 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 17096 ft MSL (11418 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20349 ft MSL (14671 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 21127 ft MSL (15449 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.6
K index......................... +3.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.7 -88.1 155 11 5 3.1 1.7 77.8 172.1 23.6 M M
45000 -60.7 -77.3 170 7 4 5.7 3.1 64.5 148.1 16.8 M M
40000 -52.0 -61.6 110 4 2 4.6 2.5 54.7 130.5 11.4 M M
38000 -49.2 -56.6 035 6 3 4.6 2.5 50.1 122.1 8.5 M M
36000 -46.4 -51.5 015 11 6 6.9 3.8 46.2 115.1 5.9 M M
34000 -41.2 -42.2 010 10 5 8.7 4.8 45.0 113.0 5.3 M M
32000 -35.9 -32.6 005 9 5 8.7 4.8 44.4 111.9 4.9 M M
30000 -30.7 -23.3 015 9 5 8.7 4.8 43.4 110.1 4.3 M M
29000 -28.1 -18.6 025 9 4 8.7 4.8 43.0 109.4 4.0 M M
28000 -25.6 -14.1 030 8 4 8.0 4.4 42.6 108.7 3.8 M M
27000 -23.2 -9.8 035 8 4 8.1 4.4 41.9 107.4 3.2 M M
26000 -20.7 -5.3 035 7 3 8.1 4.4 41.3 106.3 2.8 M M
25000 -17.7 0.1 045 6 3 7.6 4.2 40.6 105.0 2.2 M M
24000 -15.4 4.3 045 4 2 7.7 4.2 39.7 103.5 1.5 M M
23000 -13.2 8.2 045 3 2 7.7 4.2 39.0 102.2 0.9 M M
22000 -11.0 12.2 045 2 1 6.5 3.6 38.2 100.8 0.3 M M
21000 -9.0 15.8 035 2 1 6.7 3.7 37.0 98.7 -0.8 1482 7.5
20000 -7.1 19.2 020 3 1 6.8 3.7 36.0 96.8 -1.7 1394 7.1
19500 -6.1 21.0 015 3 1 7.5 4.1 35.6 96.0 -2.2 1350 6.9
19000 -4.9 23.2 010 3 1 7.8 4.3 35.2 95.4 -2.5 1300 6.6
18500 -3.8 25.2 005 3 1 7.8 4.3 34.9 94.8 -2.8 1251 6.4
18000 -2.5 27.5 360 3 1 9.3 5.1 34.7 94.5 -3.0 1198 6.1
17500 -1.1 30.0 355 3 1 9.2 5.0 34.6 94.3 -3.2 1142 5.8
17000 0.2 32.4 350 3 1 9.5 5.2 34.5 94.2 -3.2 1086 5.5
16500 1.7 35.1 350 3 1 9.7 5.3 34.5 94.1 -3.3 1028 5.2
16000 3.2 37.8 350 3 2 9.7 5.3 34.5 94.2 -3.3 969 4.9
15500 4.6 40.3 350 3 2 9.5 5.2 34.5 94.1 -3.4 912 4.6
15000 6.0 42.8 350 4 2 9.6 5.3 34.5 94.0 -3.4 854 4.3
14500 7.4 45.3 350 5 2 8.9 4.9 34.4 93.9 -3.5 798 4.1
14000 8.8 47.8 350 5 3 8.9 4.9 34.2 93.6 -3.6 742 3.8
13500 10.1 50.2 350 6 3 8.7 4.8 34.1 93.4 -3.7 687 3.5
13000 11.4 52.5 345 6 3 8.6 4.7 33.9 93.0 -3.9 633 3.2
12500 12.7 54.9 345 6 3 8.4 4.6 33.7 92.7 -4.1 579 2.9
12000 14.0 57.2 340 7 3 8.2 4.5 33.5 92.3 -4.3 527 2.7
11500 15.2 59.4 335 7 3 8.0 4.4 33.2 91.8 -4.6 475 2.4
11000 16.3 61.3 330 7 4 7.7 4.2 32.9 91.3 -4.9 426 2.2
10500 17.5 63.5 325 7 4 7.9 4.3 32.6 90.8 -5.2 376 1.9
10250 18.1 64.6 325 7 4 7.3 4.0 32.5 90.4 -5.4 352 1.8
10000 18.6 65.5 325 7 4 7.0 3.9 32.3 90.1 -5.7 330 1.7
9750 19.1 66.4 320 7 4 7.3 4.0 32.0 89.7 -5.9 307 1.6
9500 19.6 67.3 320 7 4 6.8 3.7 31.8 89.3 -6.2 285 1.4
9250 20.0 68.0 320 7 3 6.5 3.6 31.6 88.9 -6.5 265 1.3
9000 20.9 69.6 320 6 3 7.1 3.9 31.1 88.0 -7.1 222 1.1
8750 21.4 70.5 315 6 3 5.8 3.2 30.9 87.6 -7.4 201 1.0
8500 21.7 71.1 315 6 3 5.3 2.9 30.5 87.0 -7.8 184 0.9
8250 22.1 71.8 315 5 3 6.2 3.4 30.2 86.4 -8.1 165 0.8
8000 22.5 72.5 315 4 2 6.7 3.7 30.0 85.9 -8.5 145 0.7
7750 22.9 73.2 315 3 2 4.1 2.3 29.7 85.5 -8.8 126 0.6
7500 23.0 73.4 320 3 2 1.4 0.7 29.1 84.4 -9.5 116 0.6
7250 23.1 73.6 320 2 1 2.3 1.3 28.5 83.3 -10.1 105 0.5
7000 23.2 73.8 325 2 1 2.3 1.2 27.9 82.3 -10.8 94 0.5
6750 23.4 74.1 325 1 1 2.8 1.5 27.4 81.3 -11.4 82 0.4
6500 23.6 74.5 325 1 0 2.3 1.3 26.9 80.4 -11.9 69 0.4
6250 23.7 74.7 330 1 0 4.1 2.2 26.3 79.4 -12.5 56 0.3
6000 23.8 74.8 015 1 0 -7.5 -4.1 25.7 78.2 -13.2 47 0.2
5750 20.6 69.1 000 0 0 -98.8 -54.2 21.7 71.1 -17.2 137 0.7
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/14/2021 at 0900 MDT | 06/14/2021 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +10.1 LI... +0.7 | CAPE... +58.7 LI... +0.5
CINH... -95.8 K Index... -1.8 | CINH... -15.8 K Index... +5.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.5 -87.7 160 11 6 4.0 2.2 | -65.8 -86.4 155 12 6 4.3 2.3
45000 -60.1 -76.2 180 7 3 4.7 2.6 | -59.4 -74.9 155 7 4 3.5 1.9
40000 -52.5 -62.5 175 3 2 5.8 3.2 | -53.3 -63.9 125 3 1 6.5 3.6
38000 -48.9 -56.0 065 4 2 5.8 3.2 | -49.4 -56.9 070 5 3 6.5 3.6
36000 -45.4 -49.7 050 10 5 6.8 3.7 | -45.5 -49.9 055 9 4 7.4 4.1
34000 -40.8 -41.4 045 11 6 7.7 4.2 | -40.6 -41.1 055 11 6 8.1 4.5
32000 -36.2 -33.2 040 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -35.7 -32.3 050 13 7 8.2 4.5
30000 -31.0 -23.8 040 11 6 8.6 4.7 | -30.6 -23.1 050 12 6 8.5 4.6
29000 -28.4 -19.1 040 11 6 8.7 4.7 | -28.1 -18.6 055 11 6 8.5 4.7
28000 -25.9 -14.6 040 11 6 7.5 4.1 | -25.2 -13.4 055 10 5 7.0 3.9
27000 -23.1 -9.6 040 9 5 7.6 4.2 | -23.1 -9.6 055 9 5 7.0 3.8
26000 -20.8 -5.4 040 8 4 7.6 4.2 | -21.0 -5.8 055 8 4 7.0 3.8
25000 -18.5 -1.3 040 7 4 7.7 4.2 | -18.9 -2.0 050 7 3 7.0 3.9
24000 -16.2 2.8 040 6 3 7.7 4.2 | -16.8 1.8 050 5 3 7.1 3.9
23000 -13.9 7.0 035 5 3 7.7 4.2 | -14.7 5.5 050 4 2 7.1 3.9
22000 -11.7 10.9 035 4 2 7.0 3.8 | -12.5 9.5 050 4 2 8.4 4.6
21000 -9.6 14.7 040 4 2 7.1 3.9 | -10.1 13.8 050 4 2 8.3 4.5
20000 -7.5 18.5 040 4 2 7.1 3.9 | -7.6 18.3 050 4 2 8.3 4.5
19500 -6.4 20.5 040 4 2 8.3 4.6 | -6.4 20.5 045 5 2 8.7 4.8
19000 -5.1 22.8 030 4 2 8.7 4.8 | -5.0 23.0 040 5 2 8.8 4.8
18500 -3.8 25.2 025 4 2 8.7 4.8 | -3.7 25.3 040 5 3 8.9 4.9
18000 -2.5 27.5 015 4 2 9.2 5.0 | -2.4 27.7 030 5 3 9.3 5.1
17500 -1.1 30.0 005 4 2 9.2 5.0 | -1.0 30.2 025 6 3 9.2 5.1
17000 0.3 32.5 360 5 2 9.4 5.1 | 0.4 32.7 020 6 3 9.2 5.1
16500 1.7 35.1 360 5 2 9.5 5.2 | 1.8 35.2 020 6 3 9.2 5.1
16000 3.1 37.6 360 5 3 9.5 5.2 | 3.2 37.8 015 7 3 9.3 5.1
15500 4.6 40.3 360 5 3 9.6 5.3 | 4.6 40.3 015 7 3 9.3 5.1
15000 6.0 42.8 360 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 6.0 42.8 010 7 4 9.3 5.1
14500 7.4 45.3 360 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 7.4 45.3 010 7 4 9.4 5.2
14000 8.9 48.0 360 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 8.8 47.8 015 7 4 9.4 5.2
13500 10.3 50.5 360 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 10.2 50.4 015 7 4 9.4 5.1
13000 11.7 53.1 360 6 3 9.2 5.1 | 11.6 52.9 015 7 4 9.4 5.1
12500 13.1 55.6 005 7 3 8.7 4.8 | 13.0 55.4 015 7 4 9.3 5.1
12000 14.3 57.7 005 7 4 8.4 4.6 | 14.4 57.9 015 7 4 9.2 5.0
11500 15.6 60.1 005 8 4 7.7 4.2 | 15.8 60.4 020 7 3 8.8 4.8
11000 16.6 61.9 005 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 17.0 62.6 015 6 3 8.1 4.4
10500 17.7 63.9 010 8 4 7.0 3.8 | 18.3 64.9 015 6 3 8.8 4.9
10250 18.1 64.6 010 7 4 5.3 2.9 | 19.4 66.9 015 5 3 7.1 3.9
10000 18.4 65.1 010 7 3 5.0 2.8 | 19.9 67.8 015 5 3 7.8 4.3
9750 18.8 65.8 010 6 3 5.3 2.9 | 20.4 68.7 015 4 2 5.5 3.0
9500 19.4 66.9 010 5 3 4.4 2.4 | 20.7 69.3 020 4 2 5.6 3.1
9250 19.7 67.5 010 5 2 4.9 2.7 | 21.2 70.2 020 3 2 7.9 4.3
9000 19.9 67.8 010 4 2 5.0 2.8 | 21.7 71.1 015 3 1 7.6 4.2
8750 20.2 68.4 010 3 2 4.7 2.6 | 22.2 72.0 015 2 1 6.7 3.7
8500 20.5 68.9 005 3 1 4.7 2.6 | 22.7 72.9 015 2 1 8.2 4.5
8250 20.8 69.4 005 2 1 5.1 2.8 | 23.4 74.1 010 2 1 10.4 5.7
8000 21.2 70.2 360 2 1 5.3 2.9 | 24.2 75.6 010 2 1 10.0 5.5
7750 21.5 70.7 350 1 1 4.2 2.3 | 24.9 76.8 360 1 1 9.2 5.0
7500 21.7 71.1 335 1 0 4.4 2.4 | 25.5 77.9 360 1 1 9.0 5.0
7250 22.1 71.8 315 1 0 7.3 4.0 | 26.3 79.3 355 1 1 10.6 5.8
7000 22.7 72.9 300 1 0 8.7 4.8 | 27.1 80.8 350 1 1 10.9 6.0
6750 23.3 73.9 285 1 0 9.1 5.0 | 27.9 82.2 345 1 1 10.3 5.6
6500 24.0 75.2 280 1 0 9.6 5.2 | 28.6 83.5 340 1 1 10.4 5.7
6250 24.7 76.5 275 1 0 9.1 5.0 | 29.4 84.9 340 1 1 9.3 5.1
6000 25.4 77.7 275 1 0 12.2 6.7 | 30.1 86.2 335 1 1 13.3 7.3
5750 26.9 80.4 270 1 0 32.7 18.0 | 32.2 90.0 315 1 1 52.9 29.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
06/14/2021 at 1500 MDT | 06/14/2021 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +3.2 LI... -0.3 | CAPE... +2.9 LI... -0.8
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +9.2 | CINH... -0.5 K Index... +8.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.2 -87.2 160 14 7 4.4 2.4 | -66.1 -87.0 155 12 6 3.8 2.1
45000 -59.8 -75.6 160 9 4 3.5 1.9 | -60.0 -76.0 155 9 4 4.0 2.2
40000 -53.7 -64.7 080 3 2 6.7 3.7 | -53.3 -63.9 090 3 1 6.7 3.7
38000 -49.6 -57.3 060 5 3 6.7 3.7 | -49.3 -56.7 060 3 2 6.7 3.7
36000 -45.6 -50.1 055 7 4 7.5 4.1 | -45.2 -49.4 045 4 2 7.6 4.1
34000 -40.7 -41.3 060 10 5 8.1 4.4 | -40.3 -40.5 060 8 4 8.2 4.5
32000 -35.8 -32.4 065 13 7 8.2 4.5 | -35.4 -31.7 065 12 6 8.2 4.5
30000 -30.7 -23.3 060 12 6 8.6 4.7 | -30.5 -22.9 070 11 6 8.3 4.5
29000 -28.1 -18.6 060 11 6 8.6 4.7 | -28.0 -18.4 070 11 6 8.3 4.5
28000 -25.1 -13.2 060 10 5 7.2 4.0 | -25.1 -13.2 070 10 5 6.8 3.7
27000 -23.0 -9.4 055 9 5 7.2 3.9 | -23.1 -9.6 065 10 5 6.8 3.7
26000 -20.8 -5.4 055 8 4 7.2 3.9 | -21.2 -6.2 060 9 5 6.8 3.7
25000 -18.7 -1.7 055 7 4 6.8 3.7 | -19.1 -2.4 055 8 4 7.6 4.2
24000 -16.7 1.9 050 6 3 6.9 3.8 | -16.9 1.6 050 7 4 7.6 4.2
23000 -14.7 5.5 040 5 3 7.0 3.8 | -14.7 5.5 045 6 3 7.7 4.2
22000 -12.5 9.5 035 5 3 9.0 5.0 | -12.3 9.9 035 5 3 9.5 5.2
21000 -9.9 14.2 035 5 2 8.9 4.9 | -9.5 14.9 030 5 2 9.4 5.1
20000 -7.2 19.0 040 5 2 8.9 4.9 | -6.6 20.1 030 4 2 9.4 5.1
19500 -5.9 21.4 040 5 2 9.1 5.0 | -5.2 22.6 025 4 2 9.6 5.3
19000 -4.5 23.9 040 5 2 9.2 5.0 | -3.8 25.2 025 4 2 9.7 5.3
18500 -3.2 26.2 035 5 2 9.2 5.0 | -2.3 27.9 020 4 2 9.7 5.3
18000 -1.8 28.8 035 5 2 9.4 5.2 | -0.8 30.6 020 4 2 9.6 5.3
17500 -0.4 31.3 035 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 0.6 33.1 015 4 2 9.6 5.3
17000 1.1 34.0 035 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 2.1 35.8 015 4 2 9.7 5.3
16500 2.5 36.5 030 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 3.5 38.3 010 4 2 9.8 5.4
16000 3.9 39.0 030 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 5.0 41.0 010 3 2 9.8 5.4
15500 5.4 41.7 025 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 6.5 43.7 010 3 2 9.8 5.4
15000 6.8 44.2 025 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 7.9 46.2 005 3 2 9.8 5.4
14500 8.3 46.9 025 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 9.4 48.9 005 3 2 9.7 5.3
14000 9.7 49.5 025 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 10.9 51.6 360 3 2 9.7 5.3
13500 11.2 52.2 020 4 2 9.6 5.2 | 12.3 54.1 360 3 2 9.7 5.3
13000 12.6 54.7 020 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 13.8 56.8 355 3 2 9.7 5.3
12500 14.0 57.2 020 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 15.2 59.4 355 3 2 9.7 5.3
12000 15.5 59.9 015 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 16.7 62.1 350 3 2 9.6 5.3
11500 16.9 62.4 015 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 18.1 64.6 350 3 2 9.6 5.3
11000 18.4 65.1 010 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 19.5 67.1 345 3 2 9.4 5.2
10500 19.8 67.6 010 3 2 10.4 5.7 | 21.0 69.8 345 3 2 10.4 5.7
10250 21.3 70.3 005 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 21.8 71.2 345 3 2 9.7 5.3
10000 22.0 71.6 005 3 2 9.5 5.2 | 23.2 73.8 340 3 2 9.6 5.3
9750 22.7 72.9 005 3 2 9.9 5.4 | 24.0 75.2 340 3 2 9.8 5.4
9500 23.5 74.3 360 3 2 10.0 5.5 | 24.7 76.5 335 3 2 9.9 5.4
9250 24.2 75.6 360 3 2 9.7 5.3 | 25.4 77.7 335 3 2 9.7 5.3
9000 25.0 77.0 360 3 2 10.1 5.6 | 26.2 79.2 335 3 2 10.1 5.5
8750 25.7 78.3 355 3 2 8.7 4.8 | 26.9 80.4 335 3 2 8.6 4.7
8500 26.3 79.3 355 3 2 9.1 5.0 | 27.5 81.5 330 3 2 9.0 5.0
8250 27.1 80.8 350 3 2 10.7 5.9 | 28.3 82.9 330 3 2 10.6 5.8
8000 27.9 82.2 350 3 2 10.5 5.8 | 29.1 84.4 330 3 2 10.4 5.7
7750 28.7 83.7 345 3 1 9.6 5.3 | 29.8 85.6 325 3 2 9.6 5.3
7500 29.3 84.7 345 3 1 9.2 5.1 | 30.5 86.9 325 3 2 9.1 5.0
7250 30.1 86.2 340 3 1 10.5 5.8 | 31.2 88.2 325 3 2 10.1 5.5
7000 30.9 87.6 340 3 1 10.8 5.9 | 32.0 89.6 325 3 2 10.2 5.6
6750 31.7 89.1 335 3 1 10.4 5.7 | 32.8 91.0 320 3 2 10.4 5.7
6500 32.5 90.5 335 3 1 10.5 5.8 | 33.6 92.5 320 3 2 10.8 5.9
6250 33.2 91.8 335 3 1 9.4 5.2 | 34.3 93.7 320 3 1 9.4 5.2
6000 34.0 93.2 330 3 1 14.5 8.0 | 35.1 95.2 320 3 1 11.0 6.0
5750 36.4 97.5 325 2 1 60.2 33.0 | 36.6 97.9 315 3 1 36.1 19.8
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1910 MDT Sunday June 13 2021
This forecast is for Monday, June 14, 2021:
If the trigger temperature of 84.8 F/29.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1590 ft/min (8.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 22746 ft MSL (16409 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 98.0 F/37.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ More than 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 19597 ft MSL (13260 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 06/15...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:49:36 / 20:19:12 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 29 min 36 sec (869 min 36 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:04:24 MDT... 78.28 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/14/2021 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 17110 ft MSL (10773 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 19173 ft MSL (12836 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20761 ft MSL (14424 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.2
K index......................... +12.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.2 -87.2 165 9 5 3.0 1.7 76.5 169.6 23.6 M M
45000 -60.1 -76.2 180 7 4 5.5 3.0 62.3 144.1 16.3 M M
40000 -52.1 -61.8 130 7 3 4.7 2.6 52.7 126.9 10.9 M M
38000 -49.3 -56.7 045 6 3 4.7 2.6 48.1 118.6 8.0 M M
36000 -46.5 -51.7 015 13 7 6.3 3.4 44.3 111.7 5.4 M M
34000 -41.3 -42.3 005 12 6 8.8 4.8 43.2 109.7 4.8 M M
32000 -36.0 -32.8 360 11 6 8.8 4.8 42.6 108.8 4.5 M M
30000 -30.1 -22.2 005 10 5 8.7 4.8 41.6 106.9 3.8 M M
29000 -27.5 -17.5 010 10 5 8.7 4.8 41.3 106.4 3.6 M M
28000 -25.0 -13.0 015 10 5 7.8 4.3 40.8 105.5 3.3 M M
27000 -22.7 -8.9 015 9 5 7.8 4.3 40.0 104.0 2.6 M M
26000 -20.3 -4.5 020 8 4 7.8 4.3 39.3 102.7 2.1 M M
25000 -18.0 -0.4 025 8 4 7.6 4.1 38.7 101.6 1.6 M M
24000 -15.8 3.6 035 7 3 7.5 4.1 37.8 100.0 0.8 M M
23000 -13.6 7.5 045 6 3 7.5 4.1 37.0 98.6 0.2 M M
22000 -11.4 11.5 055 5 3 6.7 3.7 36.2 97.2 -0.5 1523 7.7
21000 -9.4 15.1 040 5 3 6.7 3.7 35.0 95.1 -1.6 1435 7.3
20000 -7.5 18.5 030 6 3 6.8 3.7 34.0 93.2 -2.5 1348 6.8
19500 -6.5 20.3 025 6 3 7.3 4.0 33.6 92.4 -3.0 1304 6.6
19000 -5.3 22.5 020 6 3 8.3 4.6 33.3 91.9 -3.3 1254 6.4
18500 -4.1 24.6 015 6 3 8.3 4.5 33.0 91.4 -3.5 1202 6.1
18000 -2.8 27.0 010 6 3 9.2 5.0 32.8 91.1 -3.7 1149 5.8
17500 -0.8 30.6 005 5 3 9.3 5.1 32.7 90.9 -3.9 1065 5.4
17000 0.6 33.1 360 5 2 8.8 4.9 32.6 90.7 -4.0 1010 5.1
16500 1.9 35.4 355 4 2 8.8 4.8 32.5 90.4 -4.2 957 4.9
16000 3.1 37.6 350 4 2 9.0 4.9 32.3 90.2 -4.4 903 4.6
15500 4.5 40.1 345 5 2 9.3 5.1 32.2 90.0 -4.5 848 4.3
15000 5.9 42.6 345 5 3 9.3 5.1 32.2 89.9 -4.6 792 4.0
14500 7.2 45.0 345 6 3 8.4 4.6 32.0 89.6 -4.8 737 3.7
14000 8.5 47.3 340 6 3 8.5 4.7 31.8 89.2 -5.0 684 3.5
13500 9.7 49.5 335 7 4 7.9 4.4 31.6 88.8 -5.2 632 3.2
13000 10.9 51.6 330 7 4 7.9 4.3 31.3 88.3 -5.5 582 3.0
12500 12.1 53.8 325 8 4 8.6 4.7 31.0 87.8 -5.8 531 2.7
12000 13.4 56.1 320 8 4 8.8 4.8 30.9 87.5 -6.0 478 2.4
11500 14.7 58.5 315 9 4 8.2 4.5 30.7 87.2 -6.2 425 2.2
11000 15.8 60.4 315 9 4 8.2 4.5 30.4 86.8 -6.6 376 1.9
10500 17.0 62.6 310 8 4 7.5 4.1 30.2 86.4 -6.9 326 1.7
10250 17.5 63.5 310 8 4 7.3 4.0 30.0 86.0 -7.1 304 1.5
10000 18.0 64.4 310 8 4 8.1 4.4 29.8 85.7 -7.3 280 1.4
9750 18.6 65.5 305 7 4 8.3 4.6 29.7 85.5 -7.5 255 1.3
9500 19.2 66.6 305 7 3 6.9 3.8 29.6 85.2 -7.7 231 1.2
9250 19.6 67.3 300 6 3 5.4 3.0 29.3 84.7 -8.0 212 1.1
9000 19.9 67.8 295 5 3 4.9 2.7 28.9 84.1 -8.4 193 1.0
8750 20.2 68.4 290 4 2 4.4 2.4 28.5 83.3 -8.9 177 0.9
8500 20.5 68.9 280 4 2 3.1 1.7 28.1 82.6 -9.3 161 0.8
8250 20.6 69.1 275 3 2 1.6 0.9 27.5 81.5 -10.0 150 0.8
8000 20.8 69.4 265 2 1 2.4 1.3 26.9 80.4 -10.6 139 0.7
7750 20.9 69.6 250 1 1 2.7 1.5 26.4 79.5 -11.2 127 0.6
7500 21.1 70.0 220 1 1 1.5 0.8 25.8 78.5 -11.8 115 0.6
7250 21.1 70.0 185 1 1 -0.2 -0.1 25.1 77.2 -12.5 107 0.5
7000 21.1 70.0 165 2 1 2.6 1.4 24.4 76.0 -13.3 99 0.5
6750 21.2 70.2 155 2 1 -4.4 -2.4 23.8 74.8 -13.9 89 0.4
6500 20.1 68.2 150 2 1 -26.9 -14.8 21.9 71.4 -15.9 116 0.6
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/14/2021 at 0900 MDT | 06/14/2021 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +12.3 LI... +0.2 | CAPE... +132.0 LI... +0.1
CINH... -217.1 K Index... +3.9 | CINH... -27.8 K Index... +9.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.7 -88.1 155 10 5 4.1 2.2 | -65.9 -86.6 155 10 5 4.3 2.3
45000 -59.8 -75.6 175 6 3 5.1 2.8 | -59.4 -74.9 165 5 2 3.7 2.1
40000 -52.1 -61.8 175 5 3 5.0 2.8 | -53.2 -63.8 255 2 1 6.4 3.5
38000 -49.1 -56.4 070 5 3 5.0 2.8 | -49.4 -56.9 050 4 2 6.4 3.5
36000 -46.1 -51.0 045 13 7 6.1 3.3 | -45.6 -50.1 055 9 5 6.9 3.8
34000 -41.3 -42.3 035 13 7 8.1 4.5 | -40.2 -40.4 050 12 6 8.0 4.4
32000 -35.8 -32.4 025 14 7 8.5 4.7 | -35.4 -31.7 045 15 8 8.3 4.5
30000 -30.6 -23.1 025 14 7 8.7 4.8 | -30.4 -22.7 045 13 7 8.5 4.7
29000 -28.0 -18.4 030 13 7 8.7 4.8 | -27.8 -18.0 040 13 6 8.5 4.6
28000 -25.6 -14.1 030 13 6 7.2 4.0 | -25.5 -13.9 040 12 6 7.0 3.8
27000 -23.4 -10.1 030 11 6 7.3 4.0 | -23.4 -10.1 040 11 6 7.0 3.9
26000 -21.2 -6.2 030 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -21.3 -6.3 040 10 5 7.1 3.9
25000 -19.1 -2.4 035 9 4 7.4 4.1 | -19.2 -2.6 040 10 5 7.0 3.9
24000 -16.9 1.6 035 7 4 7.4 4.1 | -17.1 1.2 040 8 4 7.1 3.9
23000 -14.7 5.5 045 5 3 7.5 4.1 | -15.0 5.0 035 6 3 7.1 3.9
22000 -12.5 9.5 050 4 2 7.8 4.3 | -12.9 8.8 035 5 2 8.1 4.5
21000 -10.1 13.8 050 5 2 7.9 4.3 | -10.5 13.1 040 5 3 8.2 4.5
20000 -7.8 18.0 050 5 3 7.9 4.3 | -8.0 17.6 050 6 3 8.2 4.5
19500 -6.7 19.9 045 5 3 8.1 4.4 | -6.8 19.8 050 6 3 8.6 4.7
19000 -5.4 22.3 040 5 3 8.3 4.6 | -4.8 23.4 045 6 3 9.2 5.0
18500 -4.2 24.4 035 5 3 8.2 4.5 | -3.4 25.9 040 6 3 9.2 5.0
18000 -2.2 28.0 025 6 3 9.5 5.2 | -2.0 28.4 035 6 3 9.2 5.0
17500 -0.7 30.7 020 6 3 9.5 5.2 | -0.6 30.9 035 6 3 9.2 5.0
17000 0.7 33.3 010 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 0.7 33.3 030 6 3 9.3 5.1
16500 2.1 35.8 005 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 2.1 35.8 025 6 3 9.3 5.1
16000 3.5 38.3 005 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 3.5 38.3 020 6 3 9.5 5.2
15500 4.9 40.8 360 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 5.0 41.0 020 7 3 9.6 5.3
15000 6.3 43.3 360 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 6.4 43.5 015 7 3 9.5 5.2
14500 7.8 46.0 360 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 7.8 46.0 010 7 4 9.1 5.0
14000 9.2 48.6 360 7 3 9.4 5.2 | 9.2 48.6 010 7 4 9.2 5.0
13500 10.6 51.1 360 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 10.6 51.1 005 7 4 9.3 5.1
13000 12.0 53.6 360 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 11.9 53.4 005 7 4 9.4 5.2
12500 13.4 56.1 005 7 4 8.3 4.5 | 13.2 55.8 005 7 4 7.3 4.0
12000 14.6 58.3 360 7 4 8.1 4.5 | 14.1 57.4 005 6 3 7.2 4.0
11500 15.7 60.3 360 7 4 7.0 3.8 | 15.1 59.2 005 5 3 7.4 4.0
11000 16.7 62.1 355 6 3 6.7 3.6 | 16.2 61.2 005 4 2 8.0 4.4
10500 17.6 63.7 355 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 17.3 63.1 010 3 2 8.8 4.9
10250 18.0 64.4 350 6 3 6.1 3.3 | 18.0 64.4 010 3 2 9.3 5.1
10000 18.4 65.1 345 5 3 5.1 2.8 | 18.7 65.7 015 3 2 9.2 5.0
9750 18.7 65.7 340 5 3 5.3 2.9 | 19.4 66.9 015 3 2 9.2 5.0
9500 19.1 66.4 335 5 2 6.2 3.4 | 20.1 68.2 020 3 1 10.2 5.6
9250 19.6 67.3 330 4 2 7.0 3.9 | 20.9 69.6 020 3 1 10.8 5.9
9000 20.0 68.0 325 4 2 5.7 3.1 | 21.6 70.9 025 3 1 9.3 5.1
8750 20.3 68.5 320 4 2 4.7 2.6 | 22.3 72.1 030 3 1 8.7 4.8
8500 20.6 69.1 315 3 2 4.0 2.2 | 23.0 73.4 030 3 1 9.8 5.4
8250 20.8 69.4 310 3 2 3.4 1.9 | 23.7 74.7 035 2 1 10.6 5.8
8000 21.0 69.8 305 3 1 3.5 1.9 | 24.5 76.1 040 2 1 9.8 5.4
7750 21.2 70.2 300 2 1 4.0 2.2 | 25.2 77.4 045 2 1 9.4 5.1
7500 21.6 70.9 290 2 1 5.3 2.9 | 25.9 78.6 050 2 1 10.2 5.6
7250 22.0 71.6 285 2 1 6.1 3.3 | 26.7 80.1 050 2 1 11.0 6.0
7000 22.4 72.3 280 1 1 5.0 2.8 | 27.5 81.5 055 3 1 9.7 5.3
6750 22.8 73.0 265 1 1 8.5 4.7 | 28.3 82.9 060 3 1 13.4 7.3
6500 23.7 74.7 260 1 1 17.4 9.6 | 29.6 85.3 060 3 1 23.8 13.1
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
06/14/2021 at 1500 MDT | 06/14/2021 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +41.5 LI... -0.3 | CAPE... +71.6 LI... -0.7
CINH... -1.5 K Index... +16.6 | CINH... -2.7 K Index... +14.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.0 -86.8 155 12 6 4.6 2.5 | -66.2 -87.2 150 11 5 4.2 2.3
45000 -59.4 -74.9 160 7 4 3.5 1.9 | -59.6 -75.3 155 6 3 4.1 2.3
40000 -53.4 -64.1 080 2 1 6.6 3.6 | -53.0 -63.4 060 2 1 6.0 3.3
38000 -49.4 -56.9 060 5 2 6.6 3.6 | -49.4 -56.9 045 4 2 6.0 3.3
36000 -45.5 -49.9 055 8 4 7.0 3.9 | -45.8 -50.4 045 6 3 6.9 3.8
34000 -40.2 -40.4 055 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -40.9 -41.6 055 10 5 8.3 4.5
32000 -35.5 -31.9 055 15 8 8.3 4.6 | -35.3 -31.5 060 14 7 8.4 4.6
30000 -30.4 -22.7 050 13 7 8.6 4.7 | -30.2 -22.4 060 13 7 8.5 4.7
29000 -27.8 -18.0 050 12 6 8.5 4.7 | -27.6 -17.7 060 12 6 8.5 4.7
28000 -25.4 -13.7 050 11 6 7.2 4.0 | -25.2 -13.4 060 11 6 7.4 4.1
27000 -23.2 -9.8 050 11 5 7.3 4.0 | -23.0 -9.4 055 11 6 7.5 4.1
26000 -21.1 -6.0 050 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -20.8 -5.4 045 10 5 7.7 4.2
25000 -18.9 -2.0 050 9 5 7.2 4.0 | -18.7 -1.7 040 10 5 6.8 3.7
24000 -16.8 1.8 045 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -16.7 1.9 025 8 4 6.6 3.6
23000 -14.7 5.5 035 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -14.8 5.4 005 7 3 6.7 3.7
22000 -12.5 9.5 025 7 4 8.0 4.4 | -12.7 9.1 345 6 3 9.1 5.0
21000 -10.2 13.6 025 6 3 8.1 4.4 | -10.0 14.0 345 6 3 9.1 5.0
20000 -7.8 18.0 020 5 3 8.1 4.5 | -7.3 18.9 345 5 3 9.1 5.0
19500 -6.6 20.1 020 5 3 8.6 4.7 | -5.9 21.4 345 5 3 9.4 5.2
19000 -4.6 23.7 020 5 3 9.2 5.0 | -4.5 23.9 345 5 2 9.7 5.3
18500 -3.3 26.1 020 5 2 9.3 5.1 | -2.3 27.9 350 4 2 9.8 5.3
18000 -1.8 28.8 020 5 2 9.6 5.3 | -0.8 30.6 350 4 2 9.8 5.4
17500 -0.4 31.3 020 5 2 9.6 5.3 | 0.6 33.1 350 4 2 9.8 5.4
17000 1.0 33.8 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 2.1 35.8 355 4 2 9.7 5.3
16500 2.5 36.5 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 3.5 38.3 355 3 2 9.7 5.3
16000 3.9 39.0 020 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 5.0 41.0 360 3 2 9.7 5.3
15500 5.3 41.5 020 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 6.4 43.5 360 3 1 9.7 5.3
15000 6.7 44.1 020 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 7.9 46.2 005 3 1 9.7 5.3
14500 8.2 46.8 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 9.3 48.7 010 2 1 9.8 5.4
14000 9.6 49.3 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 10.8 51.4 020 2 1 9.8 5.4
13500 11.1 52.0 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 12.2 54.0 025 2 1 9.6 5.3
13000 12.5 54.5 020 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 13.7 56.7 035 2 1 9.6 5.3
12500 14.0 57.2 020 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 15.1 59.2 045 2 1 9.7 5.3
12000 15.4 59.7 020 3 2 9.7 5.3 | 16.6 61.9 060 2 1 9.7 5.3
11500 16.9 62.4 025 3 2 9.9 5.4 | 18.0 64.4 070 2 1 9.8 5.3
11000 18.3 64.9 025 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 19.5 67.1 080 2 1 9.6 5.3
10500 19.8 67.6 025 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 20.9 69.6 090 2 1 9.1 5.0
10250 20.5 68.9 025 3 2 9.9 5.4 | 21.6 70.9 095 2 1 9.5 5.2
10000 21.2 70.2 030 3 1 10.2 5.6 | 22.3 72.1 095 2 1 10.4 5.7
9750 22.0 71.6 030 3 1 10.0 5.5 | 23.1 73.6 100 3 1 10.1 5.5
9500 22.8 73.0 030 3 1 10.7 5.8 | 23.8 74.8 100 3 1 10.4 5.7
9250 23.6 74.5 030 3 1 10.8 5.9 | 24.6 76.3 105 3 2 10.2 5.6
9000 24.3 75.7 030 3 1 9.5 5.2 | 25.3 77.5 105 3 2 9.3 5.1
8750 25.0 77.0 035 2 1 8.9 4.9 | 26.0 78.8 110 3 2 8.7 4.8
8500 25.7 78.3 035 2 1 9.7 5.3 | 26.7 80.1 110 4 2 9.5 5.2
8250 26.5 79.7 035 2 1 10.5 5.8 | 27.4 81.3 110 4 2 10.3 5.7
8000 27.2 81.0 040 2 1 9.9 5.4 | 28.2 82.8 110 4 2 9.8 5.4
7750 27.9 82.2 040 2 1 9.3 5.1 | 28.9 84.0 115 4 2 9.3 5.1
7500 28.6 83.5 040 2 1 10.1 5.5 | 29.6 85.3 115 4 2 10.0 5.5
7250 29.4 84.9 045 2 1 10.8 5.9 | 30.4 86.7 115 4 2 10.6 5.8
7000 30.2 86.4 045 2 1 10.0 5.5 | 31.1 88.0 115 5 2 10.2 5.6
6750 31.0 87.8 045 2 1 12.2 6.7 | 31.9 89.4 115 5 2 10.7 5.9
6500 32.2 90.0 050 2 1 20.3 11.1 | 32.8 91.0 115 5 2 13.5 7.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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