Hurricane Erin may bring isolated flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, and possible tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may bring areas of flooding this weekend over the Upper Midwest. A tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and mainly urban flash flooding to far southern Texas. Read More >
Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Saturday August 16 2025
This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 72.5 F/22.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1012 ft/min (5.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16057 ft MSL (9733 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 84.0 F/29.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13612 ft MSL (7288 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:25:21 / 19:51:01 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 25 min 40 sec (805 min 40 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:11 MDT... 68.41 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15916 ft MSL (9592 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12731 ft MSL (6407 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14526 ft MSL (8201 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.9
K index......................... +30.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.9 -86.6 255 20 10 1.7 0.9 77.0 170.6 28.5 M M
45000 -60.6 -77.1 250 31 16 6.4 3.5 61.4 142.6 20.7 M M
40000 -50.8 -59.4 235 37 19 7.3 4.0 54.6 130.3 17.5 M M
38000 -46.4 -51.5 230 37 19 7.3 4.0 52.3 126.2 16.4 M M
36000 -42.0 -43.6 220 38 19 7.4 4.0 50.7 123.3 15.6 M M
34000 -37.5 -35.5 215 37 19 7.5 4.1 48.5 119.3 14.4 M M
32000 -32.5 -26.5 205 38 19 7.9 4.3 46.7 116.1 13.3 M M
30000 -27.6 -17.7 210 32 17 8.3 4.5 45.3 113.6 12.6 M M
29000 -25.2 -13.4 215 30 15 8.3 4.6 44.8 112.7 12.3 M M
28000 -22.8 -9.0 215 27 14 7.1 3.9 44.2 111.6 11.9 M M
27000 -20.7 -5.3 215 24 12 7.2 3.9 43.2 109.7 11.2 M M
26000 -18.6 -1.5 210 20 10 7.2 3.9 42.2 108.0 10.5 M M
25000 -16.5 2.3 210 17 9 6.9 3.8 41.4 106.6 9.9 M M
24000 -14.6 5.7 205 17 9 6.5 3.6 40.1 104.2 8.9 M M
23000 -12.7 9.1 200 18 9 6.5 3.6 38.9 102.1 8.0 M M
22000 -10.8 12.6 200 19 10 6.7 3.7 37.9 100.2 7.1 M M
21000 -8.9 16.0 200 19 10 6.7 3.7 36.7 98.1 6.1 M M
20000 -6.9 19.6 205 19 10 6.8 3.7 35.7 96.3 5.3 M M
19500 -5.9 21.4 205 19 10 6.8 3.7 35.2 95.4 4.9 M M
19000 -5.0 23.0 205 19 10 6.0 3.3 34.7 94.4 4.4 M M
18500 -4.1 24.6 210 19 10 6.0 3.3 34.1 93.3 3.8 M M
18000 -3.0 26.6 210 18 9 2.3 1.2 32.9 91.1 2.7 M M
17500 -2.7 27.1 210 17 9 2.8 1.5 31.6 88.9 1.6 M M
17000 -2.4 27.7 215 16 8 5.5 3.0 30.5 86.8 0.5 M M
16500 -1.2 29.8 210 15 8 8.2 4.5 30.2 86.4 0.2 M M
16000 0.0 32.0 210 14 7 8.4 4.6 30.0 86.0 -0.1 797 4.1
15500 1.0 33.8 210 13 7 5.6 3.1 29.5 85.1 -0.6 754 3.8
15000 1.8 35.2 210 13 7 5.9 3.2 28.9 84.0 -1.2 714 3.6
14500 2.6 36.7 210 13 7 5.6 3.1 28.2 82.8 -1.9 675 3.4
14000 3.4 38.1 210 13 6 5.6 3.1 27.5 81.6 -2.5 637 3.2
13500 4.2 39.6 210 12 6 5.9 3.2 26.9 80.4 -3.2 598 3.0
13000 5.0 41.0 210 11 5 6.1 3.3 26.3 79.3 -3.8 558 2.8
12500 5.9 42.6 215 9 5 6.5 3.6 25.7 78.3 -4.5 518 2.6
12000 6.9 44.4 225 8 4 7.0 3.8 25.3 77.5 -4.9 473 2.4
11500 7.9 46.2 235 7 4 6.7 3.7 24.8 76.7 -5.4 427 2.2
11000 9.0 48.2 245 6 3 8.4 4.6 24.5 76.1 -5.7 379 1.9
10500 10.2 50.4 255 6 3 7.9 4.4 24.2 75.6 -6.0 328 1.7
10250 10.8 51.4 260 6 3 7.7 4.2 24.1 75.4 -6.2 303 1.5
10000 11.4 52.5 265 6 3 8.1 4.4 23.9 75.1 -6.3 278 1.4
9750 12.0 53.6 265 6 3 8.0 4.4 23.8 74.9 -6.5 253 1.3
9500 12.6 54.7 270 6 3 8.3 4.6 23.7 74.6 -6.6 227 1.2
9250 13.2 55.8 270 6 3 8.9 4.9 23.6 74.5 -6.7 201 1.0
9000 13.9 57.0 275 6 3 8.0 4.4 23.5 74.3 -6.8 175 0.9
8750 14.4 57.9 275 7 3 7.0 3.9 23.3 74.0 -7.0 151 0.8
8500 14.9 58.8 275 7 3 7.4 4.1 23.1 73.7 -7.2 128 0.6
8250 15.5 59.9 275 6 3 7.4 4.1 23.0 73.3 -7.4 104 0.5
8000 16.0 60.8 275 6 3 7.5 4.1 22.8 73.0 -7.6 80 0.4
7750 16.6 61.9 275 6 3 7.6 4.2 22.6 72.7 -7.8 56 0.3
7500 17.1 62.8 275 5 3 6.9 3.8 22.4 72.4 -8.0 33 0.2
7250 17.6 63.7 270 5 2 6.3 3.4 22.2 72.0 -8.3 12 0.1
7000 18.1 64.6 265 4 2 6.9 3.8 22.0 71.5 -8.6 M M
6750 18.5 65.3 265 3 2 5.9 3.3 21.7 71.1 -8.9 M M
6500 18.8 65.8 255 3 1 2.1 1.1 21.3 70.4 -9.3 M M
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +131.8 LI... -0.9 | CAPE... +444.8 LI... -1.8
CINH... -20.9 K Index... +31.0 | CINH... -0.5 K Index... +31.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.6 -86.1 255 15 8 1.4 0.8 | -65.4 -85.7 250 14 7 1.9 1.0
45000 -60.6 -77.1 255 28 14 6.3 3.5 | -60.3 -76.5 250 25 13 5.9 3.2
40000 -50.8 -59.4 240 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -51.0 -59.8 235 33 17 7.8 4.3
38000 -46.1 -51.0 235 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -46.3 -51.3 230 34 17 7.8 4.3
36000 -41.5 -42.7 230 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -41.6 -42.9 225 35 18 7.9 4.3
34000 -36.4 -33.5 220 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -36.3 -33.3 225 31 16 7.9 4.3
32000 -31.8 -25.2 210 32 16 7.4 4.1 | -31.5 -24.7 225 27 14 7.7 4.2
30000 -27.6 -17.7 205 30 15 7.2 3.9 | -27.1 -16.8 220 30 15 7.4 4.1
29000 -25.4 -13.7 205 29 15 7.2 4.0 | -24.9 -12.8 215 31 16 7.4 4.1
28000 -23.3 -9.9 205 27 14 7.1 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 215 31 16 6.3 3.4
27000 -21.2 -6.2 205 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -20.9 -5.6 215 29 15 6.5 3.5
26000 -19.1 -2.4 205 23 12 7.1 3.9 | -19.1 -2.4 210 28 14 6.6 3.6
25000 -17.0 1.4 205 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -17.2 1.0 205 26 13 7.0 3.8
24000 -15.0 5.0 210 20 10 6.8 3.7 | -15.0 5.0 210 24 12 7.2 4.0
23000 -13.0 8.6 210 19 10 6.8 3.7 | -12.8 9.0 215 23 12 7.2 4.0
22000 -11.1 12.0 210 19 10 6.8 3.7 | -10.6 12.9 220 21 11 6.8 3.7
21000 -9.1 15.6 215 17 9 6.8 3.7 | -8.8 16.2 225 18 9 6.5 3.6
20000 -7.2 19.0 220 16 8 6.8 3.7 | -6.9 19.6 230 16 8 6.6 3.6
19500 -6.2 20.8 220 16 8 6.9 3.8 | -6.0 21.2 230 14 7 6.7 3.7
19000 -5.2 22.6 220 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -4.6 23.7 235 14 7 6.0 3.3
18500 -3.9 25.0 220 16 8 6.5 3.6 | -3.8 25.2 235 14 7 6.1 3.4
18000 -3.1 26.4 225 16 8 4.8 2.6 | -3.0 26.6 240 14 7 4.9 2.7
17500 -2.4 27.7 225 15 8 4.9 2.7 | -2.3 27.9 240 14 7 5.1 2.8
17000 -1.7 28.9 225 15 8 4.8 2.6 | -1.6 29.1 245 14 7 4.9 2.7
16500 -1.1 30.0 230 14 7 4.7 2.6 | -1.0 30.2 250 12 6 4.9 2.7
16000 -0.5 31.1 230 12 6 4.9 2.7 | -0.3 31.5 255 11 6 4.9 2.7
15500 0.5 32.9 235 11 6 7.9 4.3 | 0.4 32.7 260 10 5 5.1 2.8
15000 1.6 34.9 235 10 5 7.8 4.3 | 1.1 34.0 265 9 4 4.9 2.7
14500 2.6 36.7 240 9 5 6.2 3.4 | 1.9 35.4 270 8 4 8.1 4.5
14000 3.5 38.3 245 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 3.1 37.6 270 7 4 8.2 4.5
13500 4.3 39.7 250 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 4.2 39.6 275 7 4 8.0 4.4
13000 5.2 41.4 255 7 4 6.3 3.4 | 5.3 41.5 275 7 3 8.0 4.4
12500 6.1 43.0 255 7 4 6.5 3.6 | 6.4 43.5 275 7 3 8.4 4.6
12000 7.1 44.8 260 7 3 6.7 3.7 | 7.7 45.9 275 6 3 8.7 4.8
11500 8.0 46.4 260 6 3 5.8 3.2 | 9.0 48.2 275 6 3 9.2 5.0
11000 9.0 48.2 265 6 3 7.8 4.3 | 10.4 50.7 275 6 3 9.6 5.3
10500 10.1 50.2 265 5 3 6.9 3.8 | 11.9 53.4 270 6 3 8.9 4.9
10250 10.6 51.1 270 5 3 6.6 3.6 | 12.5 54.5 270 6 3 8.9 4.9
10000 11.1 52.0 270 5 3 7.5 4.1 | 13.2 55.8 270 6 3 10.1 5.5
9750 11.6 52.9 275 5 3 7.5 4.1 | 14.0 57.2 270 6 3 9.9 5.4
9500 12.2 54.0 280 5 2 7.7 4.2 | 14.7 58.5 265 5 3 10.2 5.6
9250 12.8 55.0 280 5 2 8.0 4.4 | 15.5 59.9 265 5 3 10.5 5.8
9000 13.3 55.9 285 4 2 7.8 4.3 | 16.3 61.3 265 5 3 10.0 5.5
8750 13.9 57.0 285 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 17.0 62.6 260 5 3 9.6 5.2
8500 14.4 57.9 285 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 17.7 63.9 260 5 3 9.9 5.4
8250 15.1 59.2 280 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 18.5 65.3 255 5 2 10.2 5.6
8000 15.7 60.3 275 3 2 8.5 4.6 | 19.2 66.6 255 5 2 10.0 5.5
7750 16.3 61.3 270 3 2 8.6 4.7 | 20.0 68.0 255 5 2 9.9 5.4
7500 17.0 62.6 265 3 2 9.7 5.3 | 20.7 69.3 250 4 2 10.4 5.7
7250 17.7 63.9 260 3 1 10.4 5.7 | 21.5 70.7 250 4 2 11.1 6.1
7000 18.5 65.3 255 3 1 9.8 5.4 | 22.3 72.1 245 4 2 9.8 5.4
6750 19.2 66.6 250 3 1 10.9 6.0 | 23.1 73.6 245 4 2 13.2 7.2
6500 20.2 68.4 245 2 1 14.1 7.8 | 24.4 75.9 240 4 2 23.5 12.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +168.5 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +41.8 LI... +0.2
CINH... -6.7 K Index... +30.6 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +29.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.7 -86.3 235 13 7 1.8 1.0 | -65.5 -85.9 220 9 5 1.9 1.0
45000 -60.3 -76.5 245 24 13 6.6 3.6 | -60.2 -76.4 240 17 9 6.4 3.5
40000 -50.4 -58.7 235 30 15 6.9 3.8 | -50.2 -58.4 245 19 10 7.7 4.2
38000 -46.2 -51.2 230 30 16 6.9 3.8 | -45.6 -50.1 240 23 12 7.7 4.2
36000 -42.1 -43.8 230 31 16 7.4 4.0 | -41.0 -41.8 235 28 14 7.6 4.2
34000 -36.6 -33.9 230 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -35.9 -32.6 235 29 15 7.5 4.1
32000 -31.7 -25.1 230 32 16 8.2 4.5 | -31.4 -24.5 230 30 15 7.5 4.1
30000 -26.8 -16.2 225 28 14 8.1 4.5 | -26.9 -16.4 235 26 13 7.6 4.1
29000 -24.4 -11.9 225 26 13 8.1 4.5 | -24.7 -12.5 235 24 12 7.6 4.2
28000 -22.1 -7.8 225 24 12 5.5 3.0 | -22.4 -8.3 240 22 11 7.7 4.2
27000 -20.4 -4.7 230 23 12 5.8 3.2 | -20.1 -4.2 240 19 10 7.7 4.2
26000 -18.7 -1.7 230 21 11 5.8 3.2 | -17.8 -0.0 245 16 8 7.7 4.2
25000 -17.0 1.4 230 20 10 6.3 3.5 | -15.5 4.1 250 13 7 6.7 3.7
24000 -15.0 5.0 230 21 11 7.0 3.9 | -13.7 7.3 250 14 7 5.8 3.2
23000 -12.9 8.8 230 22 11 7.1 3.9 | -12.0 10.4 250 15 8 5.9 3.2
22000 -10.9 12.4 230 23 12 7.0 3.9 | -10.3 13.5 250 16 8 6.1 3.4
21000 -8.8 16.2 230 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -8.4 16.9 250 15 8 6.4 3.5
20000 -6.8 19.8 235 16 8 6.9 3.8 | -6.6 20.1 250 15 8 6.4 3.5
19500 -5.2 22.6 240 14 7 6.5 3.6 | -5.6 21.9 255 15 8 6.6 3.6
19000 -4.3 24.3 245 13 7 6.4 3.5 | -5.1 22.8 255 15 8 1.6 0.9
18500 -3.4 25.9 250 12 6 6.7 3.7 | -4.9 23.2 260 14 7 2.1 1.2
18000 -2.7 27.1 250 12 6 2.9 1.6 | -4.3 24.3 265 13 7 7.4 4.0
17500 -2.3 27.9 255 12 6 3.3 1.8 | -3.3 26.1 270 12 6 7.0 3.8
17000 -1.9 28.6 260 11 6 4.0 2.2 | -2.4 27.7 275 12 6 7.3 4.0
16500 -1.4 29.5 265 11 6 4.6 2.5 | -1.3 29.7 280 11 6 7.6 4.1
16000 -0.8 30.6 270 12 6 5.1 2.8 | -0.2 31.6 280 11 6 7.8 4.3
15500 0.2 32.4 270 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 1.0 33.8 280 11 6 9.1 5.0
15000 1.5 34.7 275 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 2.4 36.3 280 11 5 8.9 4.9
14500 2.8 37.0 275 11 6 8.1 4.4 | 3.8 38.8 280 10 5 9.8 5.4
14000 3.9 39.0 275 11 6 8.1 4.4 | 5.2 41.4 280 10 5 9.8 5.4
13500 5.1 41.2 275 11 6 8.4 4.6 | 6.7 44.1 280 10 5 9.7 5.3
13000 6.3 43.3 275 11 5 8.5 4.7 | 8.1 46.6 275 10 5 9.7 5.3
12500 7.6 45.7 275 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 9.6 49.3 275 10 5 9.6 5.3
12000 9.0 48.2 275 10 5 9.4 5.2 | 11.0 51.8 275 10 5 9.5 5.2
11500 10.4 50.7 275 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 12.4 54.3 270 10 5 9.7 5.3
11000 11.8 53.2 275 9 5 9.4 5.2 | 13.9 57.0 270 9 5 9.8 5.4
10500 13.2 55.8 275 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 15.4 59.7 265 9 5 8.7 4.8
10250 13.9 57.0 275 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 16.0 60.8 265 9 5 8.8 4.8
10000 14.7 58.5 275 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 16.7 62.1 265 9 5 10.5 5.7
9750 15.4 59.7 270 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 17.5 63.5 260 9 5 9.9 5.5
9500 16.1 61.0 270 7 4 10.1 5.5 | 18.2 64.8 260 9 5 10.4 5.7
9250 16.9 62.4 270 7 4 10.4 5.7 | 19.0 66.2 260 9 5 10.7 5.9
9000 17.6 63.7 270 7 3 9.5 5.2 | 19.8 67.6 260 9 5 9.6 5.3
8750 18.3 64.9 270 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 20.5 68.9 255 9 5 8.8 4.8
8500 19.0 66.2 270 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 21.1 70.0 255 9 5 9.3 5.1
8250 19.7 67.5 265 6 3 10.6 5.8 | 21.8 71.2 255 9 5 9.5 5.2
8000 20.5 68.9 265 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 22.6 72.7 250 9 5 9.8 5.4
7750 21.2 70.2 260 5 3 9.0 4.9 | 23.3 73.9 250 9 5 10.3 5.6
7500 21.9 71.4 260 5 3 9.7 5.3 | 24.1 75.4 250 9 5 10.1 5.5
7250 22.7 72.9 260 5 2 10.7 5.9 | 24.8 76.6 245 9 4 9.9 5.4
7000 23.4 74.1 255 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 25.5 77.9 245 9 4 9.8 5.4
6750 24.2 75.6 250 4 2 10.7 5.9 | 26.3 79.3 245 8 4 11.1 6.1
6500 25.1 77.2 250 4 2 14.7 8.1 | 27.2 81.0 240 8 4 14.2 7.8
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0726 MDT Saturday August 16 2025
This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 74.4 F/23.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1048 ft/min (5.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16008 ft MSL (10338 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 87.0 F/31.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13508 ft MSL (7838 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:27:45 / 19:53:36 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 25 min 50 sec (805 min 50 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:10:40 MDT... 68.30 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15646 ft MSL (9976 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12498 ft MSL (6828 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14378 ft MSL (8708 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.3
K index......................... +31.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.7 -86.3 245 21 11 1.8 1.0 79.8 175.6 29.0 M M
45000 -60.2 -76.4 245 32 17 6.5 3.6 64.4 148.0 21.4 M M
40000 -50.2 -58.4 235 36 19 7.5 4.1 57.8 136.1 18.4 M M
38000 -45.7 -50.3 230 35 18 7.5 4.1 55.7 132.2 17.4 M M
36000 -41.2 -42.2 225 34 18 7.3 4.0 54.1 129.4 16.7 M M
34000 -36.8 -34.2 210 34 18 6.5 3.6 50.8 123.4 14.8 M M
32000 -33.0 -27.4 195 36 19 7.0 3.8 48.5 119.3 13.3 M M
30000 -28.3 -18.9 205 32 16 7.8 4.3 46.7 116.1 12.3 M M
29000 -26.0 -14.8 210 30 15 7.8 4.3 46.1 114.9 11.9 M M
28000 -23.7 -10.7 215 28 14 7.3 4.0 45.4 113.7 11.5 M M
27000 -21.5 -6.7 210 25 13 7.4 4.1 44.3 111.8 10.8 M M
26000 -19.4 -2.9 205 22 11 7.5 4.1 43.5 110.3 10.2 M M
25000 -17.3 0.9 195 19 10 7.4 4.1 42.8 109.0 9.6 M M
24000 -15.2 4.6 200 17 9 6.8 3.7 41.6 106.9 8.7 M M
23000 -13.2 8.2 205 16 8 6.8 3.8 40.6 105.0 7.9 M M
22000 -11.2 11.8 215 15 8 6.9 3.8 39.6 103.3 7.2 M M
21000 -8.6 16.5 215 16 8 7.1 3.9 38.4 101.1 6.1 M M
20000 -6.5 20.3 215 16 8 7.1 3.9 37.5 99.5 5.4 M M
19500 -5.5 22.1 215 16 8 6.8 3.7 37.1 98.8 5.1 M M
19000 -4.6 23.7 215 17 8 6.1 3.4 36.5 97.6 4.5 M M
18500 -3.7 25.3 215 17 9 6.3 3.4 35.8 96.5 3.9 M M
18000 -3.0 26.6 215 17 9 4.4 2.4 35.1 95.2 3.3 M M
17500 -2.4 27.7 215 17 8 4.3 2.3 34.2 93.5 2.4 M M
17000 -1.8 28.8 215 16 8 4.4 2.4 33.3 91.9 1.6 M M
16500 -1.1 30.0 215 15 8 4.8 2.6 32.4 90.3 0.8 M M
16000 -0.5 31.1 215 13 7 4.6 2.5 31.6 88.8 -0.0 846 4.3
15500 0.3 32.5 215 12 6 6.9 3.8 30.9 87.6 -0.7 808 4.1
15000 1.3 34.3 215 10 5 6.7 3.7 30.4 86.7 -1.2 764 3.9
14500 2.2 36.0 215 9 5 6.2 3.4 29.9 85.8 -1.7 721 3.7
14000 3.0 37.4 220 8 4 6.1 3.3 29.3 84.7 -2.4 682 3.5
13500 3.9 39.0 225 8 4 6.0 3.3 28.7 83.6 -3.0 642 3.3
13000 4.7 40.5 230 7 4 6.0 3.3 28.1 82.5 -3.6 602 3.1
12500 5.5 41.9 235 7 4 6.3 3.5 27.5 81.5 -4.3 562 2.9
12000 6.5 43.7 240 7 3 7.2 4.0 27.0 80.6 -4.7 518 2.6
11500 7.6 45.7 245 6 3 7.2 3.9 26.6 79.9 -5.2 472 2.4
11000 8.6 47.5 250 6 3 7.2 4.0 26.2 79.2 -5.6 426 2.2
10500 9.7 49.5 250 5 3 7.4 4.0 25.8 78.5 -6.0 379 1.9
10250 10.2 50.4 260 5 2 7.6 4.2 25.7 78.2 -6.2 355 1.8
10000 10.8 51.4 265 4 2 7.6 4.2 25.5 77.9 -6.4 331 1.7
9750 11.3 52.3 265 4 2 7.6 4.2 25.3 77.6 -6.6 307 1.6
9500 11.9 53.4 270 4 2 7.5 4.1 25.2 77.3 -6.8 283 1.4
9250 12.5 54.5 275 4 2 7.9 4.3 25.0 77.0 -6.9 259 1.3
9000 13.1 55.6 280 3 2 8.1 4.5 24.9 76.8 -7.1 234 1.2
8750 13.7 56.7 285 3 2 8.3 4.6 24.7 76.5 -7.2 208 1.1
8500 14.2 57.6 285 3 2 7.2 4.0 24.6 76.3 -7.4 183 0.9
8250 14.7 58.5 285 3 2 7.4 4.1 24.4 75.9 -7.6 161 0.8
8000 16.0 60.8 290 3 1 9.1 5.0 24.2 75.6 -7.8 108 0.5
7750 16.7 62.1 290 3 1 7.8 4.3 24.2 75.5 -7.9 81 0.4
7500 17.2 63.0 285 2 1 6.8 3.7 23.9 75.1 -8.2 58 0.3
7250 17.7 63.9 285 2 1 8.3 4.6 23.8 74.8 -8.4 34 0.2
7000 18.4 65.1 290 2 1 8.5 4.7 23.7 74.7 -8.5 8 0.0
6750 19.0 66.2 295 2 1 7.3 4.0 23.6 74.4 -8.6 M M
6500 19.4 66.9 295 2 1 6.4 3.5 23.3 74.0 -8.9 M M
6250 19.9 67.8 295 1 1 7.7 4.2 23.1 73.6 -9.1 M M
6000 20.4 68.7 305 1 0 4.3 2.4 22.9 73.2 -9.4 M M
5750 19.8 67.6 000 0 0 -28.5 -15.6 21.6 70.8 -10.8 M M
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +65.4 LI... -0.7 | CAPE... +130.1 LI... -0.2
CINH... -26.1 K Index... +30.7 | CINH... -6.1 K Index... +29.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.4 -85.7 245 17 9 1.3 0.7 | -65.4 -85.7 240 16 8 1.7 0.9
45000 -60.5 -76.9 245 29 15 6.5 3.5 | -60.3 -76.5 245 28 15 6.3 3.5
40000 -50.5 -58.9 235 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -50.6 -59.1 235 33 17 7.3 4.0
38000 -46.0 -50.8 230 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -46.2 -51.2 230 34 17 7.3 4.0
36000 -41.5 -42.7 230 34 17 7.6 4.2 | -41.3 -42.3 230 34 18 7.6 4.2
34000 -36.3 -33.3 230 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -36.7 -34.1 230 29 15 7.7 4.2
32000 -31.7 -25.1 225 22 11 7.5 4.1 | -32.1 -25.8 225 24 12 7.7 4.2
30000 -27.5 -17.5 215 25 13 7.0 3.8 | -27.4 -17.3 225 20 10 7.8 4.3
29000 -25.4 -13.7 210 27 14 7.0 3.8 | -25.0 -13.0 225 18 9 7.9 4.3
28000 -23.4 -10.1 205 29 15 7.0 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 225 17 9 5.8 3.2
27000 -21.3 -6.3 205 27 14 7.0 3.9 | -21.0 -5.8 225 18 9 6.0 3.3
26000 -19.2 -2.6 205 26 13 7.1 3.9 | -19.3 -2.7 220 19 10 6.0 3.3
25000 -17.1 1.2 205 24 12 6.8 3.7 | -17.5 0.5 215 20 10 6.4 3.5
24000 -15.3 4.5 205 22 11 6.1 3.3 | -15.4 4.3 215 20 10 7.1 3.9
23000 -13.6 7.5 210 19 10 6.2 3.4 | -13.3 8.1 220 20 10 7.2 3.9
22000 -11.8 10.8 210 17 9 6.6 3.6 | -10.7 12.7 220 20 10 7.1 3.9
21000 -9.2 15.4 210 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -8.6 16.5 225 19 10 7.1 3.9
20000 -7.2 19.0 210 16 8 7.0 3.9 | -6.5 20.3 230 18 9 7.1 3.9
19500 -6.1 21.0 215 16 8 6.6 3.6 | -5.4 22.3 230 17 9 6.8 3.7
19000 -5.3 22.5 215 15 8 6.0 3.3 | -4.5 23.9 235 17 9 6.3 3.4
18500 -4.4 24.1 220 15 8 6.1 3.3 | -3.6 25.5 235 16 8 6.4 3.5
18000 -3.6 25.5 225 15 8 5.2 2.8 | -2.8 27.0 235 16 8 4.6 2.5
17500 -3.0 26.6 230 14 7 5.2 2.9 | -2.2 28.0 235 15 8 4.6 2.5
17000 -2.3 27.9 230 14 7 5.4 3.0 | -1.5 29.3 240 14 7 4.4 2.4
16500 -1.5 29.3 235 12 6 5.7 3.1 | -1.0 30.2 240 12 6 4.1 2.3
16000 -0.7 30.7 240 11 6 5.7 3.1 | -0.5 31.1 240 11 5 4.1 2.3
15500 0.2 32.4 245 10 5 6.6 3.6 | 0.2 32.4 250 9 5 6.5 3.6
15000 1.1 34.0 250 9 5 6.6 3.6 | 1.0 33.8 260 7 4 6.4 3.5
14500 2.0 35.6 255 9 4 6.3 3.4 | 1.9 35.4 275 6 3 6.9 3.8
14000 2.9 37.2 265 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 2.9 37.2 290 6 3 7.0 3.8
13500 3.8 38.8 270 8 4 6.5 3.6 | 3.9 39.0 300 6 3 6.6 3.6
13000 4.8 40.6 275 8 4 6.8 3.7 | 4.7 40.5 305 6 3 6.3 3.5
12500 5.7 42.3 285 8 4 7.3 4.0 | 5.6 42.1 305 6 3 7.3 4.0
12000 6.9 44.4 285 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 6.8 44.2 305 6 3 8.9 4.9
11500 8.1 46.6 290 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 8.1 46.6 305 6 3 9.0 4.9
11000 9.1 48.4 295 7 4 6.7 3.7 | 9.5 49.1 305 6 3 9.2 5.1
10500 10.0 50.0 300 6 3 7.2 4.0 | 10.9 51.6 305 6 3 9.5 5.2
10250 10.6 51.1 300 5 3 7.0 3.8 | 11.6 52.9 305 6 3 9.6 5.3
10000 11.0 51.8 305 5 2 6.4 3.5 | 12.3 54.1 300 6 3 9.5 5.2
9750 11.5 52.7 310 4 2 6.6 3.6 | 13.0 55.4 300 6 3 9.8 5.4
9500 12.0 53.6 320 4 2 6.3 3.5 | 13.7 56.7 300 6 3 8.6 4.7
9250 12.5 54.5 330 4 2 7.1 3.9 | 14.3 57.7 300 6 3 9.1 5.0
9000 13.1 55.6 330 4 2 7.8 4.3 | 15.1 59.2 300 6 3 10.4 5.7
8750 13.6 56.5 335 4 2 8.0 4.4 | 15.8 60.4 300 6 3 10.5 5.8
8500 14.2 57.6 335 3 2 6.5 3.6 | 16.6 61.9 300 7 3 8.6 4.7
8250 14.6 58.3 335 3 2 7.0 3.8 | 17.2 63.0 300 6 3 8.8 4.8
8000 15.9 60.6 330 3 1 9.3 5.1 | 18.8 65.8 295 7 3 10.7 5.9
7750 16.6 61.9 325 3 1 8.1 4.4 | 19.5 67.1 295 7 3 9.5 5.2
7500 17.1 62.8 320 2 1 7.6 4.2 | 20.2 68.4 295 7 3 9.1 5.0
7250 17.8 64.0 310 2 1 10.3 5.6 | 21.8 71.2 295 6 3 11.2 6.2
7000 18.6 65.5 310 2 1 11.0 6.1 | 21.8 71.2 295 6 3 11.6 6.4
6750 19.4 66.9 305 2 1 9.8 5.4 | 22.6 72.7 295 6 3 10.4 5.7
6500 20.1 68.2 300 2 1 9.6 5.2 | 23.4 74.1 290 6 3 10.3 5.6
6250 20.8 69.4 290 2 1 9.5 5.2 | 24.1 75.4 290 6 3 9.5 5.2
6000 21.5 70.7 295 2 1 12.0 6.6 | 24.9 76.8 290 6 3 14.8 8.1
5750 22.9 73.2 275 2 1 29.6 16.2 | 27.3 81.1 290 6 3 59.2 32.5
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +83.5 LI... +0.3 | CAPE... +39.8 LI... -1.1
CINH... -2.3 K Index... +31.2 | CINH... -8.8 K Index... +27.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.4 -85.7 235 13 7 1.9 1.0 | -65.8 -86.4 230 10 5 1.8 1.0
45000 -60.1 -76.2 245 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -60.3 -76.5 240 18 9 6.7 3.7
40000 -50.4 -58.7 245 26 13 7.1 3.9 | -50.1 -58.2 240 20 10 7.5 4.1
38000 -46.1 -51.0 235 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -45.6 -50.1 240 22 11 7.5 4.1
36000 -41.3 -42.3 230 32 16 7.6 4.2 | -40.5 -40.9 235 24 12 7.4 4.1
34000 -36.7 -34.1 230 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -36.1 -33.0 235 25 13 7.4 4.1
32000 -32.2 -26.0 230 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -31.7 -25.1 230 27 14 7.4 4.1
30000 -27.5 -17.5 230 22 11 7.7 4.2 | -27.2 -17.0 230 21 11 7.4 4.1
29000 -25.2 -13.4 230 19 10 7.7 4.3 | -25.0 -13.0 230 18 9 7.4 4.1
28000 -22.9 -9.2 230 17 9 7.3 4.0 | -22.8 -9.0 230 15 8 8.0 4.4
27000 -20.7 -5.3 235 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -20.4 -4.7 235 14 7 8.0 4.4
26000 -18.6 -1.5 240 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -18.0 -0.4 235 12 6 8.0 4.4
25000 -16.4 2.5 240 14 7 6.8 3.7 | -15.6 3.9 240 11 6 7.3 4.0
24000 -14.7 5.5 235 16 8 5.7 3.1 | -13.8 7.2 245 12 6 6.1 3.4
23000 -13.0 8.6 230 18 9 5.7 3.1 | -11.9 10.6 250 13 7 6.2 3.4
22000 -10.8 12.6 225 20 10 7.4 4.1 | -9.8 14.4 250 15 7 4.1 2.2
21000 -8.6 16.5 230 19 10 7.4 4.1 | -8.7 16.3 260 14 7 4.2 2.3
20000 -6.4 20.5 230 18 9 7.4 4.0 | -7.5 18.5 265 13 7 4.4 2.4
19500 -5.3 22.5 230 17 9 6.4 3.5 | -6.9 19.6 270 13 6 4.8 2.6
19000 -4.5 23.9 235 16 8 5.2 2.8 | -6.2 20.8 270 13 7 5.2 2.8
18500 -3.8 25.2 240 15 8 5.6 3.1 | -5.5 22.1 270 13 7 5.1 2.8
18000 -3.4 25.9 245 13 7 1.0 0.5 | -4.7 23.5 270 13 7 7.0 3.8
17500 -3.4 25.9 255 12 6 1.3 0.7 | -3.7 25.3 270 13 7 7.1 3.9
17000 -3.3 26.1 265 11 5 3.8 2.1 | -2.7 27.1 265 13 6 7.6 4.1
16500 -2.4 27.7 265 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -1.5 29.3 265 12 6 8.3 4.6
16000 -1.4 29.5 270 9 5 7.4 4.0 | -0.3 31.5 265 11 6 8.3 4.6
15500 -0.2 31.6 270 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 1.0 33.8 265 11 5 8.9 4.9
15000 1.1 34.0 270 9 4 9.4 5.1 | 2.2 36.0 270 10 5 8.8 4.8
14500 2.5 36.5 275 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 3.6 38.5 270 9 5 9.2 5.1
14000 3.9 39.0 275 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 4.9 40.8 270 9 5 9.3 5.1
13500 5.2 41.4 275 8 4 9.4 5.2 | 6.3 43.3 275 9 4 9.5 5.2
13000 6.6 43.9 275 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 7.8 46.0 275 8 4 9.6 5.3
12500 8.1 46.6 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 9.2 48.6 280 8 4 9.6 5.3
12000 9.5 49.1 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 10.6 51.1 280 8 4 9.5 5.2
11500 10.9 51.6 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 12.0 53.6 280 8 4 9.4 5.2
11000 12.3 54.1 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 13.4 56.1 285 8 4 9.0 4.9
10500 13.7 56.7 280 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 14.8 58.6 285 8 4 10.1 5.6
10250 14.4 57.9 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 15.5 59.9 285 8 4 9.6 5.3
10000 15.1 59.2 280 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 16.2 61.2 290 8 4 9.3 5.1
9750 15.8 60.4 285 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 16.9 62.4 290 8 4 9.2 5.0
9500 16.5 61.7 285 8 4 10.2 5.6 | 17.6 63.7 290 8 4 10.1 5.6
9250 17.3 63.1 285 8 4 10.5 5.7 | 18.4 65.1 290 8 4 10.2 5.6
9000 18.0 64.4 285 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 19.1 66.4 290 8 4 9.1 5.0
8750 18.8 65.8 285 8 4 10.2 5.6 | 19.8 67.6 295 8 4 9.8 5.4
8500 19.5 67.1 285 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 20.5 68.9 295 8 4 8.1 4.4
8250 20.1 68.2 285 7 4 8.8 4.8 | 21.8 71.2 295 8 4 10.4 5.7
8000 21.6 70.9 285 7 4 10.8 5.9 | 22.5 72.5 295 8 4 10.1 5.5
7750 22.4 72.3 285 7 4 9.9 5.4 | 23.3 73.9 295 8 4 9.5 5.2
7500 23.1 73.6 285 7 4 9.3 5.1 | 23.9 75.0 300 8 4 8.9 4.9
7250 23.9 75.0 285 7 4 10.5 5.8 | 24.6 76.3 300 8 4 9.6 5.3
7000 24.7 76.5 285 7 4 10.8 5.9 | 25.4 77.7 300 8 4 9.9 5.4
6750 25.5 77.9 285 7 4 10.5 5.8 | 26.1 79.0 300 8 4 9.5 5.2
6500 26.3 79.3 285 7 4 10.8 5.9 | 26.8 80.2 300 8 4 9.4 5.2
6250 27.0 80.6 285 7 4 9.7 5.3 | 27.5 81.5 300 8 4 9.0 4.9
6000 27.8 82.0 285 7 3 14.8 8.1 | 28.2 82.8 300 8 4 11.7 6.4
5750 30.2 86.4 285 6 3 59.2 32.5 | 29.7 85.5 305 7 4 34.8 19.1
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0727 MDT Saturday August 16 2025
This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 72.6 F/22.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1111 ft/min (5.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 17093 ft MSL (10651 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 85.0 F/29.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14277 ft MSL (7836 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:24:47 / 19:52:21 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 27 min 35 sec (807 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:34 MDT... 67.77 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15835 ft MSL (9393 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13087 ft MSL (6645 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14989 ft MSL (8547 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.8
K index......................... +30.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.5 -85.9 250 22 11 1.4 0.8 77.3 171.1 28.4 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 250 33 17 6.5 3.6 61.5 142.6 20.4 M M
40000 -50.5 -58.9 245 35 18 6.6 3.6 54.5 130.1 17.1 M M
38000 -46.5 -51.7 230 35 18 6.6 3.6 51.6 125.0 15.5 M M
36000 -42.5 -44.5 220 36 19 7.1 3.9 49.4 121.0 14.3 M M
34000 -37.8 -36.0 215 36 18 7.9 4.3 47.6 117.6 13.3 M M
32000 -33.1 -27.6 205 35 18 8.0 4.4 46.3 115.4 12.6 M M
30000 -28.4 -19.1 210 30 15 7.8 4.3 44.7 112.4 11.7 M M
29000 -25.4 -13.7 215 26 13 7.8 4.3 43.8 110.9 11.2 M M
28000 -23.2 -9.8 215 23 12 6.9 3.8 43.0 109.5 10.7 M M
27000 -21.1 -6.0 205 21 11 7.0 3.9 41.9 107.4 9.8 M M
26000 -19.1 -2.4 200 20 10 7.1 3.9 40.9 105.7 9.1 M M
25000 -17.1 1.2 195 19 10 7.2 4.0 40.1 104.2 8.4 M M
24000 -14.9 5.2 200 18 10 7.2 4.0 39.1 102.3 7.6 M M
23000 -12.8 9.0 205 18 9 7.2 4.0 38.1 100.7 6.9 M M
22000 -10.7 12.7 210 18 9 7.3 4.0 37.3 99.2 6.2 M M
21000 -8.5 16.7 215 19 10 7.3 4.0 36.4 97.5 5.5 M M
20000 -6.4 20.5 215 19 10 7.3 4.0 35.6 96.0 4.8 M M
19500 -5.3 22.5 220 20 10 6.9 3.8 35.2 95.4 4.4 M M
19000 -4.6 23.7 220 20 10 3.7 2.0 34.4 93.9 3.7 M M
18500 -4.0 24.8 215 20 10 3.9 2.1 33.4 92.1 2.8 M M
18000 -3.5 25.7 215 19 10 3.7 2.1 32.4 90.3 1.9 M M
17500 -3.0 26.6 215 18 9 3.7 2.0 31.3 88.4 0.9 M M
17000 -2.6 27.3 210 17 9 4.2 2.3 30.3 86.6 -0.1 908 4.6
16500 -1.6 29.1 210 16 8 8.3 4.5 29.8 85.7 -0.6 866 4.4
16000 -0.5 31.1 210 16 8 8.2 4.5 29.5 85.1 -1.0 817 4.1
15500 0.5 32.9 210 16 8 6.0 3.3 29.1 84.4 -1.4 771 3.9
15000 1.4 34.5 210 15 8 5.9 3.2 28.5 83.2 -2.0 731 3.7
14500 2.2 36.0 215 15 8 6.2 3.4 27.8 82.1 -2.7 691 3.5
14000 3.1 37.6 215 14 7 6.5 3.6 27.3 81.2 -3.2 648 3.3
13500 4.1 39.4 215 13 7 6.5 3.5 26.8 80.2 -3.8 605 3.1
13000 5.0 41.0 220 12 6 6.2 3.4 26.2 79.2 -4.3 564 2.9
12500 5.9 42.6 225 10 5 6.4 3.5 25.7 78.2 -4.9 522 2.7
12000 6.9 44.4 235 9 4 7.2 3.9 25.2 77.4 -5.4 477 2.4
11500 7.9 46.2 250 7 4 7.3 4.0 24.8 76.7 -5.8 430 2.2
11000 9.7 49.5 275 6 3 7.8 4.3 24.3 75.8 -6.3 357 1.8
10500 10.8 51.4 285 6 3 7.3 4.0 24.0 75.2 -6.7 308 1.6
10250 11.3 52.3 290 7 3 7.5 4.1 23.8 74.9 -6.9 284 1.4
10000 11.9 53.4 295 6 3 7.7 4.2 23.6 74.6 -7.1 260 1.3
9750 12.4 54.3 295 6 3 7.6 4.2 23.5 74.3 -7.3 236 1.2
9500 13.0 55.4 300 6 3 7.0 3.8 23.3 74.0 -7.5 213 1.1
9250 13.5 56.3 300 6 3 6.8 3.8 23.1 73.6 -7.7 191 1.0
9000 14.0 57.2 305 6 3 7.2 3.9 22.9 73.2 -8.0 168 0.9
8750 14.5 58.1 310 6 3 7.0 3.8 22.7 72.8 -8.2 145 0.7
8500 15.0 59.0 315 6 3 6.9 3.8 22.5 72.4 -8.4 122 0.6
8250 15.5 59.9 325 5 3 6.8 3.7 22.2 72.0 -8.7 100 0.5
8000 16.0 60.8 330 5 3 6.9 3.8 22.0 71.6 -9.0 78 0.4
7750 16.5 61.7 335 5 3 6.6 3.6 21.8 71.2 -9.2 56 0.3
7500 16.9 62.4 340 5 3 6.1 3.4 21.5 70.8 -9.5 35 0.2
7250 17.3 63.1 345 5 2 6.1 3.4 21.3 70.3 -9.9 15 0.1
7000 17.8 64.0 350 4 2 6.1 3.3 21.0 69.8 -10.2 M M
6750 18.2 64.8 345 4 2 5.6 3.1 20.7 69.3 -10.5 M M
6500 18.5 65.3 350 3 2 3.6 2.0 20.3 68.6 -11.0 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +112.8 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +332.4 LI... -1.0
CINH... -32.0 K Index... +30.3 | CINH... -0.8 K Index... +29.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 245 18 9 1.2 0.7 | -65.1 -85.2 240 16 8 1.3 0.7
45000 -60.4 -76.7 245 30 15 6.5 3.5 | -60.4 -76.7 245 28 14 6.3 3.5
40000 -50.4 -58.7 240 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -50.7 -59.3 230 32 17 7.4 4.1
38000 -45.9 -50.6 235 34 17 7.5 4.1 | -46.3 -51.3 230 33 17 7.4 4.0
36000 -41.5 -42.7 230 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -41.3 -42.3 230 34 17 7.8 4.3
34000 -37.3 -35.1 220 31 16 7.0 3.8 | -36.5 -33.7 225 29 15 7.9 4.4
32000 -33.1 -27.6 215 29 15 6.9 3.8 | -31.8 -25.2 225 24 12 7.6 4.2
30000 -28.4 -19.1 210 31 16 7.9 4.4 | -27.7 -17.9 220 24 12 6.8 3.7
29000 -25.5 -13.9 210 32 16 8.0 4.4 | -25.7 -14.3 220 24 13 6.8 3.7
28000 -23.2 -9.8 205 32 16 7.0 3.8 | -23.7 -10.7 215 25 13 6.8 3.7
27000 -21.1 -6.0 205 28 14 7.1 3.9 | -21.7 -7.1 215 24 13 6.8 3.7
26000 -19.0 -2.2 205 24 13 7.1 3.9 | -19.7 -3.5 210 24 12 6.8 3.7
25000 -16.9 1.6 205 21 11 6.8 3.8 | -17.6 0.3 210 24 12 6.9 3.8
24000 -15.0 5.0 205 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -15.0 5.0 210 22 11 7.2 4.0
23000 -13.0 8.6 205 18 9 6.8 3.7 | -12.9 8.8 215 20 10 7.3 4.0
22000 -11.0 12.2 210 16 8 7.0 3.8 | -10.8 12.6 220 19 10 7.2 4.0
21000 -8.9 16.0 215 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -8.7 16.3 220 18 9 7.2 4.0
20000 -6.8 19.8 220 17 9 7.1 3.9 | -6.5 20.3 225 17 9 7.2 4.0
19500 -5.8 21.6 220 17 9 6.8 3.7 | -5.4 22.3 230 17 9 6.8 3.7
19000 -5.0 23.0 225 17 9 4.7 2.6 | -4.5 23.9 230 17 9 6.1 3.3
18500 -4.3 24.3 225 17 9 4.9 2.7 | -3.7 25.3 230 17 9 6.2 3.4
18000 -3.7 25.3 230 17 9 4.1 2.2 | -2.9 26.8 235 16 8 4.3 2.4
17500 -3.2 26.2 230 16 8 3.8 2.1 | -2.4 27.7 235 15 8 4.3 2.3
17000 -2.7 27.1 235 15 8 4.0 2.2 | -1.8 28.8 235 14 7 4.7 2.6
16500 -1.9 28.6 235 14 7 6.3 3.5 | -1.1 30.0 240 12 6 5.6 3.1
16000 -1.1 30.0 235 13 7 6.1 3.4 | -0.4 31.3 245 10 5 5.5 3.0
15500 -0.1 31.8 240 12 6 6.9 3.8 | 0.5 32.9 250 9 5 6.6 3.6
15000 0.8 33.4 240 11 6 6.9 3.8 | 1.4 34.5 260 8 4 6.5 3.6
14500 1.8 35.2 245 11 6 6.6 3.6 | 2.3 36.1 270 7 4 6.5 3.6
14000 2.7 36.9 250 10 5 6.3 3.5 | 3.2 37.8 275 7 4 6.6 3.6
13500 3.6 38.5 255 9 5 6.6 3.6 | 4.1 39.4 280 7 4 6.7 3.7
13000 4.6 40.3 260 9 5 7.2 3.9 | 5.1 41.2 285 6 3 7.0 3.8
12500 5.6 42.1 265 8 4 7.2 4.0 | 6.0 42.8 285 6 3 7.4 4.0
12000 6.7 44.1 270 8 4 7.3 4.0 | 7.2 45.0 285 6 3 8.4 4.6
11500 8.3 46.9 275 6 3 7.7 4.2 | 8.4 47.1 285 5 3 8.8 4.8
11000 9.4 48.9 285 5 3 7.6 4.1 | 9.8 49.6 285 5 3 9.4 5.2
10500 10.6 51.1 290 5 2 7.9 4.3 | 11.2 52.2 285 5 3 9.3 5.1
10250 11.1 52.0 290 4 2 7.6 4.2 | 12.6 54.7 285 5 3 9.8 5.4
10000 11.7 53.1 295 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 13.3 55.9 285 5 3 9.8 5.3
9750 12.2 54.0 305 4 2 7.4 4.1 | 14.0 57.2 285 5 3 9.7 5.3
9500 12.8 55.0 310 4 2 6.8 3.7 | 14.7 58.5 285 5 3 9.4 5.1
9250 13.2 55.8 320 3 2 6.8 3.7 | 15.4 59.7 285 5 3 9.7 5.3
9000 13.8 56.8 325 3 2 7.2 3.9 | 16.2 61.2 285 5 3 10.0 5.5
8750 14.3 57.7 335 3 2 7.0 3.9 | 16.9 62.4 285 5 3 9.9 5.4
8500 14.8 58.6 340 3 2 6.9 3.8 | 17.6 63.7 285 5 3 9.9 5.4
8250 15.3 59.5 350 3 2 7.2 4.7 | 18.4 65.1 290 5 3 10.0 5.5
8000 15.8 60.4 355 3 2 7.9 4.3 | 19.1 66.4 285 5 3 10.2 5.6
7750 16.4 61.5 360 3 2 8.9 4.9 | 19.9 67.8 285 5 3 10.4 5.7
7500 17.1 62.8 360 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 20.7 69.3 285 5 3 10.7 5.9
7250 17.8 64.0 360 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 21.5 70.7 290 5 3 10.4 5.7
7000 18.5 65.3 360 4 2 10.3 5.6 | 22.2 72.0 290 5 3 11.0 6.0
6750 19.4 66.9 360 3 2 13.7 7.5 | 23.2 73.8 290 5 3 18.0 9.9
6500 20.6 69.1 360 3 2 19.3 10.6 | 25.3 77.5 290 5 3 42.7 23.4
08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +301.5 LI... -1.1 | CAPE... +21.6 LI... -0.4
CINH... -5.1 K Index... +31.5 | CINH... -1.5 K Index... +27.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.0 -85.0 235 13 6 1.9 1.0 | -65.5 -85.9 225 10 5 1.6 0.9
45000 -59.9 -75.8 245 23 12 6.0 3.3 | -60.2 -76.4 245 19 10 6.6 3.6
40000 -50.6 -59.1 240 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -50.1 -58.2 245 22 11 7.4 4.0
38000 -46.4 -51.5 235 31 16 7.1 3.9 | -45.7 -50.3 245 23 12 7.4 4.0
36000 -41.6 -42.9 230 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -40.8 -41.4 240 24 12 7.1 3.9
34000 -37.0 -34.6 230 28 15 7.7 4.2 | -36.5 -33.7 235 24 12 7.1 3.9
32000 -32.3 -26.1 225 24 13 7.9 4.3 | -32.3 -26.1 230 25 13 7.4 4.1
30000 -27.5 -17.5 235 21 11 8.2 4.5 | -27.5 -17.5 235 19 10 8.0 4.4
29000 -25.0 -13.0 235 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -25.2 -13.4 235 17 9 8.0 4.4
28000 -22.7 -8.9 240 18 9 6.4 3.5 | -22.8 -9.0 240 14 7 8.2 4.5
27000 -20.8 -5.4 240 17 9 6.4 3.5 | -20.3 -4.5 245 14 7 8.2 4.5
26000 -18.9 -2.0 240 17 9 6.4 3.5 | -17.9 -0.2 255 13 7 8.2 4.5
25000 -17.0 1.4 240 16 8 6.5 3.5 | -15.4 4.3 260 13 7 7.5 4.1
24000 -14.5 5.9 235 18 9 6.6 3.6 | -13.2 8.2 255 14 7 5.7 3.1
23000 -12.6 9.3 230 19 10 6.6 3.6 | -11.6 11.1 255 15 8 5.7 3.1
22000 -10.7 12.7 230 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -9.9 14.2 250 15 8 4.8 2.6
21000 -8.6 16.5 230 18 9 6.9 3.8 | -8.6 16.5 260 14 7 4.9 2.7
20000 -6.6 20.1 235 17 9 6.8 3.7 | -7.2 19.0 265 13 7 5.0 2.7
19500 -5.6 21.9 240 17 9 5.9 3.3 | -6.5 20.3 270 13 7 5.0 2.7
19000 -5.0 23.0 245 15 8 3.9 2.1 | -5.9 21.4 275 12 6 4.8 2.6
18500 -4.5 23.9 250 14 7 4.1 2.2 | -5.3 22.5 285 12 6 4.8 2.7
18000 -4.0 24.8 255 14 7 3.8 2.1 | -4.6 23.7 290 11 6 6.8 3.7
17500 -3.5 25.7 260 13 7 4.1 2.2 | -3.6 25.5 290 11 5 7.0 3.8
17000 -3.1 26.4 265 12 6 5.4 2.9 | -2.6 27.3 285 10 5 7.4 4.1
16500 -2.0 28.4 270 12 6 8.4 4.6 | -1.4 29.5 280 10 5 8.4 4.6
16000 -0.9 30.4 270 12 6 8.3 4.6 | -0.2 31.6 275 10 5 8.3 4.5
15500 0.3 32.5 270 11 6 8.9 4.9 | 1.1 34.0 275 10 5 9.7 5.3
15000 1.6 34.9 270 11 6 8.8 4.8 | 2.5 36.5 270 10 5 9.6 5.3
14500 2.9 37.2 270 11 6 9.1 5.0 | 4.0 39.2 270 10 5 9.6 5.3
14000 4.2 39.6 270 11 5 9.2 5.0 | 5.4 41.7 265 10 5 9.6 5.3
13500 5.6 42.1 270 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 6.8 44.2 265 10 5 9.7 5.3
13000 6.9 44.4 270 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 8.3 46.9 260 10 5 9.7 5.3
12500 8.3 46.9 265 10 5 9.2 5.1 | 9.7 49.5 260 10 5 9.7 5.3
12000 9.7 49.5 265 9 5 9.3 5.1 | 11.2 52.2 260 11 5 9.5 5.2
11500 11.0 51.8 265 9 5 8.8 4.8 | 12.6 54.7 260 11 6 9.8 5.4
11000 12.4 54.3 260 9 4 9.5 5.2 | 14.0 57.2 260 11 5 9.6 5.3
10500 14.5 58.1 260 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 15.5 59.9 260 11 6 9.3 5.1
10250 15.1 59.2 260 8 4 9.1 5.0 | 16.2 61.2 255 11 6 9.5 5.2
10000 15.8 60.4 260 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 17.6 63.7 255 11 6 9.9 5.4
9750 16.5 61.7 260 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 18.4 65.1 255 11 6 9.9 5.4
9500 17.2 63.0 260 7 4 9.7 5.3 | 19.1 66.4 255 11 6 9.4 5.1
9250 17.9 64.2 260 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 19.8 67.6 255 12 6 9.6 5.3
9000 18.6 65.5 260 7 4 9.1 5.0 | 20.6 69.1 255 12 6 10.1 5.5
8750 19.3 66.7 260 7 4 9.2 5.1 | 21.3 70.3 255 12 6 9.9 5.5
8500 20.0 68.0 260 7 3 9.4 5.2 | 22.0 71.6 255 12 6 9.4 5.2
8250 20.6 69.1 260 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 22.7 72.9 255 12 6 9.5 5.2
8000 21.4 70.5 260 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 23.5 74.3 255 12 6 10.1 5.5
7750 22.1 71.8 260 6 3 9.8 5.4 | 24.2 75.6 255 12 6 10.1 5.5
7500 22.8 73.0 260 6 3 10.3 5.6 | 25.0 77.0 255 12 6 10.0 5.5
7250 23.6 74.5 265 6 3 10.6 5.8 | 25.7 78.3 255 12 6 10.2 5.6
7000 24.3 75.7 265 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 26.4 79.5 255 12 6 9.0 5.0
6750 25.0 77.0 265 5 3 12.0 6.6 | 27.1 80.8 255 12 6 11.0 6.0
6500 26.9 80.4 265 5 3 47.9 26.3 | 28.6 83.5 250 10 5 36.8 20.2
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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