Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0723 MDT Saturday March 15 2025
This forecast is for Saturday, March 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 34.0 F/1.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 397 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 16108 ft MSL (9765 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 47.0 F/8.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ Between 20 mph and 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13964 ft MSL (7622 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 03/16....... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:13:44 / 19:11:44 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 58 min 0 sec (718 min 0 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:12:44 MDT... 53.09 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 03/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 10354 ft MSL (4011 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13252 ft MSL (6909 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.2
K index......................... +10.7
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.0 -65.2 280 32 17 3.8 2.1 105.1 221.2 56.1 M M
45000 -48.0 -54.4 285 38 20 3.7 2.0 90.8 195.5 51.0 M M
40000 -45.6 -50.1 285 48 25 1.4 0.8 71.4 160.5 41.6 M M
38000 -44.9 -48.8 290 51 26 -0.8 -0.4 64.5 148.0 38.0 M M
36000 -45.6 -50.1 285 49 25 -1.2 -0.7 54.3 129.8 32.0 M M
34000 -46.3 -51.3 285 46 24 -1.2 -0.7 45.3 113.5 26.3 M M
32000 -47.3 -53.1 280 36 19 -1.7 -0.9 34.7 94.5 19.4 M M
30000 -48.3 -54.9 270 24 12 -1.6 -0.9 25.7 78.3 13.1 M M
29000 -48.1 -54.6 255 19 10 4.8 2.6 22.3 72.1 10.6 M M
28000 -46.7 -52.1 235 15 8 4.6 2.5 20.1 68.2 9.1 M M
27000 -45.3 -49.5 205 14 7 4.6 2.5 18.1 64.6 7.7 M M
26000 -44.0 -47.2 180 16 8 6.0 3.3 16.3 61.4 6.3 M M
25000 -41.7 -43.1 190 13 7 7.4 4.1 15.3 59.6 5.6 M M
24000 -39.5 -39.1 210 10 5 7.4 4.1 14.5 58.0 4.9 M M
23000 -37.3 -35.1 235 10 5 7.7 4.2 13.7 56.7 4.4 M M
22000 -34.9 -30.8 265 11 6 8.1 4.5 13.0 55.5 3.9 M M
21000 -32.5 -26.5 285 14 7 8.1 4.5 12.5 54.4 3.4 M M
20000 -30.1 -22.2 295 18 9 7.6 4.2 11.9 53.5 3.0 M M
19500 -28.9 -20.0 295 19 10 7.7 4.2 11.5 52.7 2.6 M M
19000 -27.8 -18.0 300 21 11 7.7 4.2 11.1 52.0 2.3 M M
18500 -26.1 -15.0 300 23 12 7.6 4.2 10.6 51.1 1.9 M M
18000 -25.0 -13.0 300 25 13 7.5 4.1 10.3 50.5 1.6 M M
17500 -23.9 -11.0 300 26 13 7.2 4.0 9.9 49.8 1.2 M M
17000 -22.8 -9.0 305 26 14 7.4 4.0 9.4 49.0 0.8 M M
16500 -21.8 -7.2 305 27 14 5.8 3.2 8.9 48.0 0.4 M M
16000 -21.0 -5.8 305 27 14 6.0 3.3 8.3 46.9 -0.2 782 4.0
15500 -20.1 -4.2 310 27 14 5.2 2.9 7.6 45.7 -0.8 742 3.8
15000 -19.4 -2.9 310 27 14 5.0 2.8 6.8 44.3 -1.6 705 3.6
14500 -18.6 -1.5 310 27 14 5.0 2.8 6.0 42.9 -2.3 668 3.4
14000 -17.9 -0.2 310 26 14 5.1 2.8 5.3 41.5 -3.0 631 3.2
13500 -17.1 1.2 315 26 13 5.4 3.0 4.5 40.1 -3.7 593 3.0
13000 -16.2 2.8 315 26 13 6.2 3.4 3.9 39.0 -4.3 552 2.8
12500 -15.3 4.5 315 26 13 6.3 3.5 3.3 38.0 -4.9 510 2.6
12000 -14.3 6.3 315 27 14 6.9 3.8 2.8 37.1 -5.4 466 2.4
11500 -13.3 8.1 315 27 14 6.7 3.7 2.4 36.3 -5.9 421 2.1
11000 -12.3 9.9 315 27 14 7.4 4.1 1.9 35.5 -6.4 376 1.9
10500 -11.2 11.8 315 28 14 7.5 4.1 1.6 34.9 -6.7 327 1.7
10250 -10.7 12.7 315 28 14 6.8 3.7 1.4 34.5 -7.0 304 1.5
10000 -10.2 13.6 315 28 14 7.1 3.9 1.2 34.1 -7.2 281 1.4
9750 -9.6 14.7 315 28 15 7.6 4.2 1.0 33.8 -7.4 258 1.3
9500 -9.1 15.6 310 28 15 7.4 4.1 0.8 33.5 -7.6 234 1.2
9250 -8.5 16.7 310 28 14 7.4 4.1 0.6 33.2 -7.8 210 1.1
9000 -8.0 17.6 310 28 14 7.1 3.9 0.5 32.8 -8.0 187 0.9
8750 -7.5 18.5 310 28 14 6.4 3.5 0.2 32.4 -8.3 165 0.8
8500 -7.0 19.4 310 27 14 6.9 3.8 -0.0 31.9 -8.6 143 0.7
8250 -6.5 20.3 305 26 13 7.6 4.2 -0.2 31.6 -8.8 120 0.6
8000 -6.0 21.2 305 25 13 6.9 3.8 -0.4 31.3 -9.0 97 0.5
7750 -5.5 22.1 305 24 12 5.6 3.1 -0.7 30.8 -9.3 76 0.4
7500 -5.1 22.8 300 23 12 5.9 3.2 -1.0 30.2 -9.7 57 0.3
7250 -4.7 23.5 300 21 11 6.3 3.4 -1.3 29.7 -10.0 36 0.2
7000 -4.2 24.4 295 19 10 6.9 3.8 -1.5 29.3 -10.3 15 0.1
6750 -3.7 25.3 295 17 9 6.4 3.5 -1.7 28.9 -10.5 M M
6500 -3.4 25.9 290 14 7 3.1 1.7 -2.1 28.3 -10.9 M M
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
03/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 03/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.7 | CAPE... +28.4 LI... +1.6
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +13.9 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +14.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.1 -65.4 285 32 17 3.3 1.8 | -54.1 -65.4 290 36 18 3.2 1.8
45000 -48.9 -56.0 290 32 16 3.3 1.8 | -49.3 -56.7 300 41 21 3.3 1.8
40000 -46.4 -51.5 300 42 22 1.5 0.8 | -47.4 -53.3 305 46 23 1.0 0.6
38000 -45.6 -50.1 305 46 24 0.3 0.2 | -46.8 -52.2 305 48 25 1.6 0.9
36000 -45.4 -49.7 305 46 24 0.2 0.1 | -45.9 -50.6 310 49 25 1.5 0.8
34000 -45.3 -49.5 300 46 23 0.2 0.1 | -44.9 -48.8 315 51 26 1.5 0.8
32000 -45.4 -49.7 300 42 22 -0.3 -0.2 | -44.4 -47.9 315 50 26 0.7 0.4
30000 -45.6 -50.1 295 37 19 -0.3 -0.2 | -44.0 -47.2 315 49 25 0.7 0.4
29000 -45.6 -50.1 295 32 17 0.2 0.1 | -43.8 -46.8 315 45 23 0.4 0.2
28000 -45.5 -49.9 290 24 12 0.2 0.1 | -43.7 -46.7 310 37 19 0.4 0.2
27000 -45.5 -49.9 285 17 9 0.3 0.1 | -43.6 -46.5 305 30 15 0.4 0.2
26000 -45.4 -49.7 265 10 5 4.1 2.2 | -43.4 -46.1 295 23 12 3.3 1.8
25000 -43.1 -45.6 285 10 5 7.6 4.2 | -41.8 -43.2 295 18 9 5.3 2.9
24000 -40.8 -41.4 300 11 6 7.7 4.2 | -40.2 -40.4 300 13 7 5.3 2.9
23000 -38.5 -37.3 315 13 7 8.1 4.5 | -38.6 -37.5 315 9 4 6.9 3.8
22000 -36.0 -32.8 320 15 8 8.6 4.7 | -36.3 -33.3 320 12 6 8.0 4.4
21000 -33.4 -28.1 325 17 9 8.6 4.7 | -33.9 -29.0 325 16 8 8.0 4.4
20000 -30.9 -23.6 330 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -31.5 -24.7 325 20 10 7.8 4.3
19500 -29.7 -21.5 330 20 10 8.0 4.4 | -30.3 -22.5 325 21 11 7.8 4.3
19000 -27.9 -18.2 330 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -28.5 -19.3 320 24 12 7.8 4.3
18500 -26.7 -16.1 330 23 12 8.0 4.4 | -27.4 -17.3 320 25 13 7.8 4.3
18000 -25.6 -14.1 330 24 12 7.6 4.2 | -26.2 -15.2 320 27 14 8.0 4.4
17500 -24.5 -12.1 330 25 13 7.2 3.9 | -25.0 -13.0 320 27 14 8.1 4.4
17000 -23.4 -10.1 330 26 13 7.1 3.9 | -23.8 -10.8 315 27 14 8.0 4.4
16500 -22.4 -8.3 330 26 13 6.3 3.4 | -22.7 -8.9 315 27 14 7.1 3.9
16000 -21.5 -6.7 330 26 13 6.4 3.5 | -21.6 -6.9 315 27 14 7.3 4.0
15500 -20.6 -5.1 330 26 13 6.0 3.3 | -20.6 -5.1 315 27 14 6.2 3.4
15000 -19.7 -3.5 330 26 13 6.0 3.3 | -19.7 -3.5 315 26 13 6.3 3.5
14500 -18.8 -1.8 330 26 13 6.0 3.3 | -18.9 -2.0 315 25 13 4.6 2.5
14000 -17.9 -0.2 330 26 13 6.0 3.3 | -18.3 -0.9 310 23 12 4.2 2.3
13500 -17.0 1.4 330 26 13 6.5 3.6 | -17.6 0.3 310 22 11 6.7 3.7
13000 -16.0 3.2 330 25 13 6.9 3.8 | -16.4 2.5 310 21 11 7.9 4.3
12500 -14.9 5.2 330 25 13 7.0 3.8 | -15.2 4.6 310 21 11 8.8 4.8
12000 -13.9 7.0 330 25 13 7.0 3.9 | -13.9 7.0 310 21 11 9.3 5.1
11500 -12.9 8.8 330 24 13 6.6 3.6 | -12.5 9.5 310 21 11 7.9 4.3
11000 -11.9 10.6 325 24 12 7.6 4.2 | -11.3 11.7 310 21 11 9.7 5.3
10500 -10.7 12.7 325 24 12 7.0 3.8 | -9.9 14.2 310 21 11 8.7 4.8
10250 -10.2 13.6 325 24 12 5.6 3.1 | -9.3 15.3 310 21 11 7.5 4.1
10000 -9.8 14.4 325 24 12 7.0 3.8 | -8.7 16.3 310 21 11 9.5 5.2
9750 -9.2 15.4 320 24 12 7.9 4.3 | -7.9 17.8 305 21 11 10.6 5.8
9500 -8.7 16.3 320 23 12 6.1 3.4 | -7.1 19.2 305 21 11 9.1 5.0
9250 -8.3 17.1 320 22 11 5.2 2.9 | -6.5 20.3 305 21 11 8.7 4.8
9000 -8.0 17.6 315 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -5.8 21.6 305 21 11 9.5 5.2
8750 -7.6 18.3 310 20 10 6.4 3.5 | -5.1 22.8 305 21 11 10.0 5.5
8500 -7.0 19.4 310 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -4.3 24.3 305 20 11 9.7 5.3
8250 -6.4 20.5 310 18 9 8.0 4.4 | -3.6 25.5 305 20 11 9.3 5.1
8000 -5.8 21.6 305 18 9 9.0 4.9 | -2.9 26.8 305 20 10 10.7 5.9
7750 -5.1 22.8 305 17 9 9.4 5.2 | -2.0 28.4 305 20 10 10.8 5.9
7500 -4.4 24.1 300 17 9 8.8 4.8 | -1.3 29.7 300 20 10 9.4 5.2
7250 -3.8 25.2 300 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -0.6 30.9 300 20 10 9.8 5.4
7000 -3.1 26.4 300 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 0.1 32.2 300 20 10 9.8 5.4
6750 -2.3 27.9 300 15 8 12.0 6.6 | 1.0 33.8 300 19 10 15.9 8.7
6500 -1.3 29.7 300 13 7 14.5 8.0 | 2.6 36.7 300 17 9 25.2 13.8
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
03/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 03/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +47.2 LI... +0.8 | CAPE... +15.3 LI... +1.1
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +13.3 | CINH... -0.6 K Index... +6.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.3 -67.5 295 41 21 2.7 1.5 | -55.7 -68.3 300 43 22 1.6 0.9
45000 -51.3 -60.3 305 48 25 2.7 1.5 | -53.4 -64.1 310 52 27 1.5 0.8
40000 -48.4 -55.1 305 58 30 1.9 1.0 | -50.6 -59.1 310 81 41 1.9 1.0
38000 -47.4 -53.3 305 61 32 0.5 0.3 | -49.4 -56.9 310 89 46 1.9 1.0
36000 -47.0 -52.6 310 65 33 0.6 0.3 | -48.1 -54.6 315 83 43 1.9 1.0
34000 -46.6 -51.9 315 69 36 0.5 0.3 | -47.0 -52.6 320 78 40 1.9 1.1
32000 -45.4 -49.7 320 69 36 2.4 1.3 | -45.0 -49.0 325 82 42 3.4 1.9
30000 -43.9 -47.0 320 69 35 2.4 1.3 | -43.0 -45.4 325 88 45 3.3 1.8
29000 -43.0 -45.4 320 66 34 3.5 1.9 | -41.7 -43.1 325 87 45 4.8 2.6
28000 -41.9 -43.4 315 61 31 3.5 1.9 | -40.2 -40.4 325 86 44 4.8 2.6
27000 -40.9 -41.6 315 56 29 3.5 1.9 | -38.8 -37.8 325 84 43 4.8 2.6
26000 -39.9 -39.8 315 51 26 2.6 1.4 | -37.3 -35.1 325 82 42 5.3 2.9
25000 -39.1 -38.4 310 44 23 2.4 1.3 | -35.7 -32.3 325 76 39 5.3 2.9
24000 -38.4 -37.1 305 37 19 2.4 1.3 | -34.1 -29.4 325 71 36 5.3 2.9
23000 -37.6 -35.7 295 31 16 5.5 3.0 | -32.7 -26.9 320 65 33 2.7 1.5
22000 -35.5 -31.9 295 27 14 6.9 3.8 | -31.9 -25.4 320 57 29 2.5 1.4
21000 -33.4 -28.1 290 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -31.2 -24.2 315 49 25 2.6 1.4
20000 -31.3 -24.3 290 20 10 8.0 4.4 | -30.0 -22.0 315 43 22 6.0 3.3
19500 -30.1 -22.2 295 21 11 7.9 4.3 | -28.7 -19.7 315 40 20 5.9 3.2
19000 -28.3 -18.9 305 22 11 7.9 4.3 | -27.8 -18.0 310 38 19 5.9 3.2
18500 -27.1 -16.8 310 22 12 8.0 4.4 | -26.9 -16.4 310 36 18 6.0 3.3
18000 -26.0 -14.8 315 23 12 5.8 3.2 | -26.1 -15.0 310 34 18 4.9 2.7
17500 -25.3 -13.5 315 25 13 5.2 2.8 | -25.4 -13.7 310 33 17 4.9 2.7
17000 -24.6 -12.3 315 26 13 5.7 3.1 | -24.7 -12.5 310 32 17 6.3 3.4
16500 -23.6 -10.5 315 27 14 7.2 3.9 | -23.6 -10.5 310 32 16 8.1 4.4
16000 -22.5 -8.5 315 27 14 7.0 3.8 | -22.4 -8.3 310 31 16 8.3 4.5
15500 -21.3 -6.3 315 27 14 9.4 5.1 | -21.0 -5.8 310 31 16 9.6 5.2
15000 -20.0 -4.0 315 28 14 9.1 5.0 | -19.6 -3.3 305 31 16 9.5 5.2
14500 -18.6 -1.5 315 28 14 9.4 5.1 | -18.2 -0.8 305 31 16 8.9 4.9
14000 -17.2 1.0 310 28 14 9.4 5.2 | -16.9 1.6 305 31 16 8.9 4.9
13500 -15.8 3.6 310 28 15 9.3 5.1 | -15.5 4.1 305 32 16 9.5 5.2
13000 -14.4 6.1 310 29 15 9.3 5.1 | -14.1 6.6 305 32 16 9.5 5.2
12500 -13.0 8.6 310 29 15 9.2 5.1 | -12.7 9.1 305 32 16 9.4 5.2
12000 -11.6 11.1 310 29 15 9.2 5.1 | -11.3 11.7 305 32 17 9.5 5.2
11500 -10.3 13.5 305 30 15 8.2 4.5 | -9.9 14.2 305 32 17 8.0 4.4
11000 -9.0 15.8 305 30 15 10.3 5.7 | -8.6 16.5 305 33 17 11.1 6.1
10500 -7.5 18.5 305 31 16 8.8 4.8 | -7.0 19.4 305 33 17 8.9 4.9
10250 -6.8 19.8 305 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -6.4 20.5 305 33 17 8.1 4.4
10000 -6.2 20.8 305 31 16 9.6 5.3 | -5.7 21.7 305 34 17 11.0 6.0
9750 -5.4 22.3 305 31 16 10.4 5.7 | -4.8 23.4 305 34 17 11.4 6.3
9500 -4.7 23.5 305 31 16 9.4 5.2 | -4.1 24.6 305 34 17 8.9 4.9
9250 -4.0 24.8 305 32 16 9.2 5.1 | -3.4 25.9 305 34 18 9.2 5.0
9000 -3.3 26.1 305 32 16 9.8 5.4 | -2.7 27.1 305 34 18 9.8 5.4
8750 -2.5 27.5 305 32 16 10.2 5.6 | -1.9 28.6 305 34 18 10.2 5.6
8500 -1.8 28.8 305 32 16 9.8 5.4 | -1.2 29.8 305 34 18 9.8 5.4
8250 -1.1 30.0 305 32 16 9.7 5.3 | -0.5 31.1 305 34 18 9.9 5.5
8000 -0.3 31.5 305 32 16 10.4 5.7 | 0.3 32.5 305 34 18 10.0 5.5
7750 0.5 32.9 305 32 16 10.3 5.6 | 1.0 33.8 305 34 17 9.9 5.4
7500 1.2 34.2 300 32 16 9.6 5.3 | 1.8 35.2 305 33 17 9.9 5.4
7250 1.9 35.4 300 31 16 9.5 5.2 | 2.5 36.5 305 33 17 9.7 5.3
7000 2.7 36.9 300 31 16 10.7 5.9 | 3.3 37.9 305 32 16 11.0 6.0
6750 3.7 38.7 300 29 15 17.4 9.5 | 4.2 39.6 305 30 15 13.1 7.2
6500 5.3 41.5 300 26 14 24.3 13.4 | 5.2 41.4 305 26 14 13.3 7.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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