Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0715 MDT Monday May 23 2022
This forecast is for Monday, May 23, 2022:
If the trigger temperature of 71.1 F/21.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 938 ft/min (4.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 17656 ft MSL (12357 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12450 ft MSL (7151 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 05/24...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:57:21 / 20:09:12 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 11 min 52 sec (851 min 52 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:03:17 MDT... 75.63 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/23/2022 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13260 ft MSL (7961 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18124 ft MSL (12825 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18132 ft MSL (12833 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.2
K index......................... +12.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.3 -80.1 285 34 18 2.5 1.4 93.9 201.0 38.6 M M
45000 -61.4 -78.5 265 37 19 1.6 0.9 69.7 157.5 26.6 M M
40000 -60.4 -76.7 285 44 23 -8.5 -4.6 48.6 119.5 14.5 M M
38000 -59.7 -75.5 305 46 24 8.5 4.7 40.9 105.6 9.7 M M
36000 -54.6 -66.3 295 44 22 8.6 4.7 39.6 103.3 9.1 M M
34000 -49.3 -56.7 285 44 23 9.2 5.0 39.0 102.1 8.8 M M
32000 -43.8 -46.8 275 42 22 9.0 5.0 38.4 101.0 8.6 M M
30000 -38.2 -36.8 280 39 20 7.8 4.3 37.4 99.3 8.1 M M
29000 -35.8 -32.4 270 30 15 7.8 4.3 36.7 98.0 7.6 M M
28000 -33.5 -28.3 265 31 16 7.8 4.3 35.9 96.7 7.1 M M
27000 -31.2 -24.2 255 35 18 7.8 4.3 35.2 95.4 6.7 M M
26000 -28.8 -19.8 260 37 19 7.8 4.3 34.4 94.0 6.1 M M
25000 -26.5 -15.7 270 40 21 7.8 4.3 33.7 92.7 5.6 M M
24000 -24.4 -11.9 265 41 21 6.2 3.4 32.6 90.7 4.7 M M
23000 -22.2 -8.0 260 38 20 7.8 4.3 31.7 89.1 4.1 M M
22000 -19.8 -3.6 250 37 19 7.8 4.3 31.1 87.9 3.5 M M
21000 -17.5 0.5 240 36 19 7.8 4.3 30.5 86.8 3.1 M M
20000 -15.2 4.6 255 31 16 7.5 4.1 29.7 85.5 2.4 M M
19500 -14.1 6.6 255 29 15 7.4 4.0 29.3 84.7 2.1 M M
19000 -13.0 8.6 255 30 15 7.0 3.8 28.9 84.0 1.7 M M
18500 -12.2 10.0 255 32 16 4.5 2.5 28.1 82.6 1.0 M M
18000 -11.5 11.3 255 33 17 6.5 3.6 27.3 81.2 0.3 M M
17500 -10.4 13.3 250 35 18 7.1 3.9 26.8 80.3 -0.0 1132 5.8
17000 -9.3 15.3 250 36 19 7.1 3.9 26.4 79.5 -0.4 1085 5.5
16500 -8.2 17.2 250 37 19 7.1 3.9 26.0 78.7 -0.8 1037 5.3
16000 -7.1 19.2 250 39 20 8.2 4.5 25.6 78.1 -1.1 988 5.0
15500 -5.3 22.5 250 38 20 8.3 4.6 25.2 77.4 -1.6 914 4.6
15000 -4.1 24.6 255 37 19 8.2 4.5 25.0 77.0 -1.8 863 4.4
14500 -2.9 26.8 255 35 18 8.2 4.5 24.7 76.5 -2.0 811 4.1
14000 -1.6 29.1 260 34 18 8.2 4.5 24.5 76.1 -2.3 759 3.9
13500 -0.4 31.3 265 33 17 8.2 4.5 24.2 75.6 -2.5 707 3.6
13000 0.9 33.6 265 31 16 8.2 4.5 24.0 75.1 -2.8 655 3.3
12500 2.1 35.8 270 30 15 8.2 4.5 23.7 74.7 -3.0 604 3.1
12000 3.3 37.9 275 29 15 8.1 4.5 23.5 74.3 -3.2 552 2.8
11500 4.6 40.3 275 27 14 9.0 4.9 23.3 73.9 -3.5 499 2.5
11000 5.9 42.6 270 25 13 9.1 5.0 23.1 73.6 -3.7 446 2.3
10500 7.2 45.0 265 22 11 9.3 5.1 23.0 73.4 -3.9 393 2.0
10250 7.8 46.0 265 21 11 8.5 4.7 23.0 73.4 -4.0 366 1.9
10000 8.4 47.1 260 22 11 7.9 4.3 22.8 73.1 -4.1 342 1.7
9750 8.9 48.0 265 22 11 7.7 4.2 22.7 72.9 -4.3 317 1.6
9500 9.4 48.9 265 23 12 6.4 3.5 22.5 72.5 -4.5 295 1.5
9250 9.9 49.8 270 23 12 6.0 3.3 22.2 72.0 -4.8 273 1.4
9000 10.4 50.7 275 24 12 6.1 3.3 21.9 71.5 -5.1 252 1.3
8750 10.8 51.4 275 24 12 6.1 3.3 21.6 71.0 -5.4 230 1.2
8500 11.3 52.3 270 23 12 6.1 3.3 21.4 70.4 -5.6 209 1.1
8250 11.8 53.2 265 23 12 6.1 3.3 21.1 69.9 -5.9 188 1.0
8000 12.2 54.0 260 23 12 6.1 3.3 20.8 69.4 -6.2 166 0.8
7750 12.7 54.9 260 22 11 6.1 3.3 20.5 68.9 -6.5 145 0.7
7500 13.2 55.8 250 20 10 6.1 3.3 20.2 68.4 -6.7 123 0.6
7250 13.6 56.5 240 18 9 6.1 3.4 19.9 67.9 -7.0 102 0.5
7000 14.1 57.4 230 16 8 6.9 3.8 19.7 67.5 -7.3 80 0.4
6750 14.6 58.3 225 16 8 8.0 4.4 19.5 67.1 -7.5 58 0.3
6500 15.1 59.2 220 15 8 6.3 3.5 19.4 66.9 -7.8 36 0.2
6250 15.2 59.4 210 16 8 -2.0 -1.1 18.8 65.9 -8.4 25 0.1
6000 14.8 58.6 200 16 8 -2.8 -1.5 17.8 64.0 -9.6 31 0.2
5750 14.7 58.5 200 13 7 0.1 0.0 17.0 62.7 -10.4 25 0.1
5500 14.4 57.9 215 7 4 -9.1 -5.0 16.0 60.8 -11.5 27 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/23/2022 at 0900 MDT | 05/23/2022 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.3
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +5.1 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +10.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.8 -77.4 285 32 16 1.0 0.5 | -60.4 -76.7 295 29 15 1.8 1.0
45000 -59.5 -75.1 295 34 17 -0.1 -0.0 | -57.9 -72.2 295 37 19 -0.7 -0.4
40000 -59.6 -75.3 290 43 22 -0.6 -0.3 | -59.0 -74.2 285 44 23 -1.0 -0.6
38000 -56.6 -69.9 280 42 22 6.0 3.3 | -56.2 -69.2 275 44 22 5.9 3.2
36000 -53.0 -63.4 270 41 21 6.0 3.3 | -52.7 -62.9 265 43 22 5.9 3.2
34000 -48.7 -55.7 270 41 21 8.6 4.7 | -48.5 -55.3 265 43 22 8.2 4.5
32000 -43.5 -46.3 275 40 21 8.6 4.7 | -43.6 -46.5 265 41 21 8.2 4.5
30000 -38.5 -37.3 275 38 20 8.0 4.4 | -38.6 -37.5 265 40 21 8.6 4.7
29000 -36.1 -33.0 270 37 19 8.0 4.4 | -36.0 -32.8 265 41 21 8.6 4.7
28000 -33.7 -28.7 270 36 19 8.0 4.4 | -32.8 -27.0 265 41 21 8.6 4.7
27000 -30.8 -23.4 265 36 19 7.9 4.4 | -30.4 -22.7 265 41 21 7.6 4.2
26000 -28.4 -19.1 265 38 19 7.9 4.4 | -28.1 -18.6 265 42 22 7.6 4.2
25000 -26.0 -14.8 265 39 20 7.9 4.3 | -25.9 -14.6 260 43 22 7.6 4.2
24000 -23.9 -11.0 260 40 20 6.5 3.6 | -23.7 -10.7 260 43 22 6.4 3.5
23000 -21.9 -7.4 260 40 20 6.5 3.6 | -21.8 -7.2 260 41 21 6.5 3.6
22000 -20.0 -4.0 260 40 20 6.6 3.6 | -19.9 -3.8 260 40 20 6.5 3.6
21000 -17.9 -0.2 260 39 20 7.1 3.9 | -18.1 -0.6 255 38 20 5.9 3.2
20000 -15.8 3.6 255 37 19 7.1 3.9 | -16.3 2.7 255 37 19 5.8 3.2
19500 -14.7 5.5 255 36 19 7.1 3.9 | -15.4 4.3 255 36 19 5.9 3.2
19000 -13.7 7.3 255 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -14.5 5.9 250 36 18 6.3 3.4
18500 -12.4 9.7 255 35 18 8.6 4.7 | -13.4 7.9 250 35 18 8.7 4.8
18000 -11.1 12.0 255 34 18 8.6 4.7 | -12.1 10.2 255 35 18 8.7 4.8
17500 -9.9 14.2 255 34 18 7.1 3.9 | -10.8 12.6 255 34 17 7.1 3.9
17000 -8.9 16.0 250 34 17 7.0 3.8 | -9.8 14.4 255 32 17 6.7 3.7
16500 -7.8 18.0 250 34 17 6.8 3.7 | -8.8 16.2 255 31 16 6.3 3.5
16000 -6.8 19.8 250 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -8.0 17.6 255 28 15 5.4 3.0
15500 -5.8 21.6 250 32 16 6.6 3.6 | -7.2 19.0 255 26 13 5.4 2.9
15000 -4.8 23.4 255 30 16 6.7 3.7 | -6.2 20.8 255 24 12 8.1 4.5
14500 -3.8 25.2 255 29 15 6.6 3.6 | -5.0 23.0 255 22 11 7.8 4.3
14000 -2.8 27.0 255 28 14 7.5 4.1 | -3.8 25.2 255 21 11 9.2 5.0
13500 -1.7 28.9 260 26 13 7.4 4.1 | -2.4 27.7 255 20 11 9.2 5.1
13000 -0.6 30.9 260 25 13 8.0 4.4 | -1.0 30.2 255 20 10 9.4 5.1
12500 0.6 33.1 265 24 12 8.1 4.4 | 0.4 32.7 255 20 10 9.4 5.2
12000 1.8 35.2 265 23 12 8.4 4.6 | 1.8 35.2 255 19 10 9.4 5.2
11500 3.1 37.6 265 22 11 8.5 4.6 | 3.2 37.8 255 19 10 9.4 5.2
11000 4.3 39.7 265 21 11 8.3 4.6 | 4.6 40.3 255 19 10 9.6 5.3
10500 5.5 41.9 265 21 11 8.5 4.7 | 6.1 43.0 255 18 9 9.6 5.3
10250 6.1 43.0 265 21 11 8.8 4.8 | 6.8 44.2 255 18 9 9.4 5.2
10000 6.7 44.1 265 20 10 7.9 4.3 | 8.3 46.9 250 18 9 9.9 5.4
9750 7.3 45.1 265 20 10 7.3 4.0 | 9.0 48.2 250 17 9 9.8 5.4
9500 7.8 46.0 265 20 10 7.6 4.2 | 9.7 49.5 250 17 9 9.5 5.2
9250 8.4 47.1 265 19 10 6.3 3.4 | 10.4 50.7 250 17 9 9.5 5.2
9000 9.1 48.4 260 17 9 4.9 2.7 | 11.2 52.2 250 17 9 9.7 5.3
8750 9.5 49.1 255 16 8 5.5 3.0 | 11.9 53.4 250 16 8 9.5 5.2
8500 9.9 49.8 250 15 8 3.1 1.7 | 12.6 54.7 250 16 8 10.1 5.5
8250 10.1 50.2 250 15 7 3.2 1.8 | 13.4 56.1 250 16 8 10.4 5.7
8000 10.4 50.7 245 13 7 5.6 3.1 | 14.1 57.4 250 15 8 10.0 5.5
7750 10.8 51.4 235 12 6 5.0 2.7 | 14.9 58.8 250 15 8 10.3 5.6
7500 11.1 52.0 230 11 6 4.8 2.6 | 15.7 60.3 250 15 8 9.5 5.2
7250 11.5 52.7 220 11 6 7.4 4.0 | 16.3 61.3 250 14 7 9.8 5.4
7000 12.2 54.0 220 11 5 9.6 5.3 | 17.1 62.8 250 14 7 10.7 5.9
6750 12.9 55.2 215 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 17.9 64.2 250 14 7 10.6 5.8
6500 13.6 56.5 215 10 5 9.6 5.2 | 18.7 65.7 250 13 7 10.5 5.8
6250 14.3 57.7 210 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 19.6 67.3 250 13 7 16.3 8.9
6000 15.0 59.0 210 10 5 12.7 7.0 | 21.3 70.3 250 12 6 26.7 14.6
5750 16.6 61.9 210 9 4 36.5 20.0 | 22.9 73.2 250 11 6 7.9 4.3
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/23/2022 at 1500 MDT | 05/23/2022 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +6.1 LI... +0.1 | CAPE... +35.0 LI... +0.5
CINH... -2.0 K Index... +17.0 | CINH... -92.1 K Index... +20.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.7 -75.5 290 34 17 2.6 1.4 | -59.0 -74.2 285 23 12 3.1 1.7
45000 -56.2 -69.2 285 40 21 -0.4 -0.2 | -54.7 -66.5 280 29 15 0.7 0.4
40000 -56.9 -70.4 275 48 25 -0.6 -0.3 | -53.8 -64.8 275 41 21 0.7 0.4
38000 -55.2 -67.4 270 48 25 3.8 2.1 | -53.3 -63.9 275 41 21 0.8 0.4
36000 -52.9 -63.2 270 48 25 3.8 2.1 | -52.8 -63.0 270 38 20 0.8 0.4
34000 -49.6 -57.3 270 48 25 7.9 4.3 | -50.6 -59.1 270 35 18 7.3 4.0
32000 -44.9 -48.8 265 47 24 7.9 4.3 | -46.3 -51.3 265 32 17 7.3 4.0
30000 -40.1 -40.2 260 46 24 8.3 4.6 | -41.5 -42.7 260 32 16 9.0 4.9
29000 -37.6 -35.7 260 45 23 8.3 4.6 | -38.8 -37.8 255 33 17 9.0 4.9
28000 -34.5 -30.1 260 44 22 8.4 4.6 | -36.1 -33.0 250 35 18 9.0 4.9
27000 -31.9 -25.4 260 44 23 9.0 4.9 | -33.4 -28.1 250 37 19 9.4 5.1
26000 -29.2 -20.6 260 45 23 9.1 5.0 | -30.6 -23.1 245 38 20 9.3 5.1
25000 -26.5 -15.7 260 47 24 9.0 5.0 | -27.9 -18.2 240 40 21 9.4 5.1
24000 -24.1 -11.4 260 47 24 5.9 3.2 | -25.2 -13.4 240 41 21 7.9 4.3
23000 -22.3 -8.1 255 46 24 6.1 3.3 | -22.9 -9.2 240 40 21 7.8 4.3
22000 -20.5 -4.9 250 45 23 6.1 3.3 | -20.0 -4.0 240 39 20 7.8 4.3
21000 -18.8 -1.8 250 42 22 6.0 3.3 | -17.8 -0.0 240 38 19 7.4 4.1
20000 -17.0 1.4 245 35 18 6.0 3.3 | -15.6 3.9 240 37 19 7.4 4.1
19500 -16.1 3.0 245 32 16 6.0 3.3 | -14.5 5.9 245 37 19 7.4 4.1
19000 -15.2 4.6 245 29 15 6.3 3.5 | -13.4 7.9 245 37 19 7.4 4.0
18500 -14.1 6.6 245 27 14 8.6 4.7 | -12.3 9.9 245 37 19 7.2 4.0
18000 -12.8 9.0 245 26 13 8.4 4.6 | -11.3 11.7 240 37 19 7.2 4.0
17500 -11.6 11.1 245 26 13 8.4 4.6 | -10.2 13.6 240 37 19 7.1 3.9
17000 -10.3 13.5 245 26 13 8.5 4.6 | -9.2 15.4 240 36 19 7.1 3.9
16500 -9.1 15.6 245 26 13 8.7 4.8 | -8.1 17.4 240 36 18 7.6 4.2
16000 -7.7 18.1 245 26 13 9.5 5.2 | -6.9 19.6 240 35 18 8.7 4.8
15500 -6.2 20.8 245 26 13 9.4 5.2 | -5.6 21.9 240 33 17 8.7 4.8
15000 -4.8 23.4 245 26 13 9.7 5.3 | -4.2 24.4 240 32 16 9.6 5.3
14500 -3.3 26.1 245 26 13 9.7 5.3 | -2.8 27.0 240 30 15 9.6 5.2
14000 -1.9 28.6 245 26 13 9.7 5.3 | -1.4 29.5 240 28 14 9.2 5.1
13500 -0.4 31.3 245 25 13 9.8 5.3 | -0.0 32.0 245 25 13 9.2 5.0
13000 1.1 34.0 245 25 13 9.8 5.4 | 1.3 34.3 245 23 12 8.8 4.8
12500 2.5 36.5 245 25 13 9.9 5.4 | 2.6 36.7 250 21 11 8.6 4.7
12000 4.0 39.2 245 24 13 9.8 5.4 | 3.9 39.0 250 19 10 8.5 4.7
11500 5.5 41.9 245 24 12 9.8 5.4 | 5.1 41.2 260 17 9 8.4 4.6
11000 7.0 44.6 250 23 12 9.9 5.4 | 6.3 43.3 265 15 8 8.1 4.4
10500 8.5 47.3 250 23 12 9.7 5.3 | 7.5 45.5 275 14 7 8.3 4.6
10250 9.2 48.6 250 22 11 9.4 5.1 | 8.1 46.6 280 14 7 8.9 4.9
10000 10.7 51.3 250 22 11 10.5 5.8 | 8.8 47.8 285 13 7 8.5 4.6
9750 11.4 52.5 250 21 11 10.1 5.5 | 9.4 48.9 290 13 7 8.0 4.4
9500 12.2 54.0 250 21 11 9.2 5.0 | 10.0 50.0 295 13 7 8.2 4.5
9250 12.9 55.2 255 20 11 9.3 5.1 | 10.6 51.1 300 13 7 8.9 4.9
9000 13.6 56.5 255 20 10 9.8 5.4 | 11.2 52.2 305 14 7 8.4 4.6
8750 14.3 57.7 255 20 10 9.5 5.2 | 11.8 53.2 310 14 7 7.9 4.3
8500 15.0 59.0 255 19 10 10.4 5.7 | 12.4 54.3 310 14 7 7.6 4.2
8250 15.8 60.4 255 19 10 10.6 5.8 | 13.0 55.4 315 15 8 9.2 5.0
8000 16.6 61.9 255 18 9 9.9 5.5 | 13.7 56.7 320 16 8 10.0 5.5
7750 17.4 63.3 260 18 9 10.2 5.6 | 15.1 59.2 325 17 9 9.4 5.1
7500 18.1 64.6 260 18 9 10.0 5.5 | 15.8 60.4 325 17 9 8.4 4.6
7250 18.9 66.0 260 17 9 10.0 5.5 | 16.4 61.5 330 18 9 8.8 4.8
7000 19.6 67.3 260 17 9 10.2 5.6 | 17.1 62.8 330 18 9 9.9 5.4
6750 20.4 68.7 260 16 8 9.9 5.5 | 17.8 64.0 330 19 10 9.6 5.3
6500 21.1 70.0 265 16 8 10.8 5.9 | 18.5 65.3 330 19 10 9.7 5.3
6250 22.1 71.8 265 15 8 17.2 9.4 | 19.3 66.7 335 19 10 11.7 6.4
6000 23.7 74.7 265 14 7 24.9 13.7 | 20.3 68.5 335 17 9 15.0 8.2
5750 25.3 77.5 270 13 6 12.0 6.6 | 21.3 70.3 335 16 8 9.2 5.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0712 MDT Monday May 23 2022
This forecast is for Monday, May 23, 2022:
If the trigger temperature of 65.8 F/18.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 866 ft/min (4.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 17987 ft MSL (11659 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0930 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14645 ft MSL (8316 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 05/24...... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:55:00 / 20:06:35 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 11 min 34 sec (851 min 34 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:47 MDT... 75.71 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/23/2022 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13196 ft MSL (6868 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21040 ft MSL (14712 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20328 ft MSL (14000 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.2
K index......................... +3.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.8 -79.2 275 39 20 0.2 0.1 88.9 192.1 37.7 M M
45000 -61.4 -78.5 275 41 21 0.7 0.4 65.9 150.6 25.9 M M
40000 -60.3 -76.5 290 44 22 0.5 0.3 45.2 113.4 13.9 M M
38000 -57.3 -71.1 290 43 22 6.2 3.4 40.9 105.5 11.3 M M
36000 -53.6 -64.5 295 42 22 6.2 3.4 37.9 100.1 9.5 M M
34000 -49.3 -56.7 290 41 21 8.2 4.5 35.7 96.3 8.2 M M
32000 -44.4 -47.9 285 40 21 8.2 4.5 34.5 94.0 7.4 M M
30000 -38.9 -38.0 275 38 19 8.3 4.6 33.2 91.7 6.6 M M
29000 -36.4 -33.5 270 36 19 8.3 4.6 32.6 90.7 6.2 M M
28000 -33.9 -29.0 265 35 18 8.3 4.6 32.1 89.8 5.9 M M
27000 -31.6 -24.9 260 35 18 7.4 4.1 31.4 88.5 5.4 M M
26000 -29.4 -20.9 265 36 19 7.4 4.1 30.5 86.8 4.7 M M
25000 -27.2 -17.0 265 37 19 7.4 4.1 29.7 85.4 4.1 M M
24000 -24.9 -12.8 260 38 19 8.2 4.5 28.9 84.1 3.5 M M
23000 -22.5 -8.5 255 37 19 8.2 4.5 28.3 82.9 3.0 M M
22000 -20.0 -4.0 250 36 19 8.1 4.5 27.8 82.0 2.6 M M
21000 -17.6 0.3 250 36 19 7.9 4.3 27.2 80.9 2.2 M M
20000 -15.3 4.5 250 37 19 7.9 4.3 26.5 79.7 1.6 M M
19500 -14.1 6.6 250 37 19 7.9 4.3 26.2 79.1 1.3 M M
19000 -12.9 8.8 250 37 19 7.8 4.3 25.9 78.6 1.1 M M
18500 -11.9 10.6 250 37 19 6.0 3.3 25.4 77.7 0.7 M M
18000 -11.0 12.2 250 37 19 6.1 3.4 24.8 76.6 0.1 M M
17500 -9.6 14.7 255 38 19 6.0 3.3 23.9 74.9 -0.7 1015 5.2
17000 -8.8 16.2 255 38 20 6.0 3.3 23.2 73.8 -1.3 974 4.9
16500 -7.8 18.0 255 39 20 7.1 3.9 22.7 72.8 -1.9 932 4.7
16000 -6.8 19.8 255 39 20 7.4 4.1 22.3 72.1 -2.3 885 4.5
15500 -5.7 21.7 255 38 20 7.7 4.2 21.9 71.4 -2.6 837 4.3
15000 -4.4 24.1 255 36 19 8.2 4.5 21.6 70.9 -2.9 786 4.0
14500 -3.2 26.2 255 34 18 8.2 4.5 21.4 70.5 -3.1 733 3.7
14000 -1.9 28.6 255 32 16 8.3 4.6 21.1 70.0 -3.3 681 3.5
13500 -0.7 30.7 255 30 15 8.4 4.6 20.9 69.6 -3.5 628 3.2
13000 0.6 33.1 255 28 14 7.7 4.3 20.6 69.1 -3.8 576 2.9
12500 1.7 35.1 255 27 14 7.8 4.3 20.3 68.6 -4.1 527 2.7
12000 2.9 37.2 255 25 13 8.0 4.4 20.0 68.1 -4.4 477 2.4
11500 4.1 39.4 255 25 13 7.9 4.3 19.8 67.6 -4.7 427 2.2
11000 5.2 41.4 255 25 13 7.8 4.3 19.4 67.0 -5.0 378 1.9
10500 6.4 43.5 255 25 13 8.0 4.4 19.2 66.5 -5.3 328 1.7
10250 7.0 44.6 255 24 13 7.5 4.1 19.0 66.2 -5.5 303 1.5
10000 7.5 45.5 255 25 13 7.3 4.0 18.8 65.9 -5.7 279 1.4
9750 8.1 46.6 255 25 13 7.8 4.3 18.7 65.6 -5.9 255 1.3
9500 8.7 47.7 255 25 13 7.4 4.1 18.5 65.3 -6.1 230 1.2
9250 9.2 48.6 255 25 13 8.4 4.6 18.3 65.0 -6.2 206 1.0
9000 9.9 49.8 255 25 13 7.6 4.2 18.3 64.9 -6.3 179 0.9
8750 10.3 50.5 255 25 13 5.8 3.2 18.0 64.4 -6.6 158 0.8
8500 10.8 51.4 255 25 13 5.9 3.2 17.7 63.8 -6.9 137 0.7
8250 11.2 52.2 255 25 13 7.1 3.9 17.4 63.4 -7.2 116 0.6
8000 11.8 53.2 255 24 13 7.9 4.3 17.3 63.1 -7.4 92 0.5
7750 12.4 54.3 250 23 12 7.8 4.3 17.1 62.8 -7.6 68 0.3
7500 12.9 55.2 250 22 12 5.9 3.2 16.9 62.5 -7.8 45 0.2
7250 13.0 55.4 250 21 11 -0.2 -0.1 16.4 61.6 -8.4 33 0.2
7000 12.8 55.0 245 18 9 -2.8 -1.6 15.5 59.9 -9.4 33 0.2
6750 12.5 54.5 245 15 8 -3.2 -1.8 14.6 58.2 -10.5 35 0.2
6500 11.7 53.1 240 10 5 -16.2 -8.9 13.3 55.9 -12.0 50 0.3
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/23/2022 at 0900 MDT | 05/23/2022 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.2
CINH... -0.9 K Index... +4.0 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +4.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.9 -77.6 280 32 17 0.4 0.2 | -60.6 -77.1 285 30 15 1.9 1.0
45000 -60.4 -76.7 280 33 17 -0.1 -0.0 | -58.2 -72.8 285 34 18 -0.9 -0.5
40000 -60.5 -76.9 280 44 23 -0.4 -0.2 | -59.6 -75.3 285 43 22 -1.1 -0.6
38000 -57.4 -71.3 280 43 22 6.6 3.6 | -56.8 -70.2 275 43 22 6.1 3.3
36000 -53.5 -64.3 275 40 21 6.6 3.6 | -53.2 -63.8 270 42 22 6.1 3.3
34000 -49.0 -56.2 270 39 20 8.6 4.7 | -48.9 -56.0 265 41 21 8.5 4.7
32000 -43.2 -45.8 275 38 20 8.6 4.7 | -43.2 -45.8 265 39 20 8.5 4.7
30000 -38.3 -36.9 270 36 19 7.9 4.3 | -38.1 -36.6 265 38 19 8.3 4.6
29000 -36.0 -32.8 265 36 18 7.9 4.4 | -35.7 -32.3 260 38 20 8.4 4.6
28000 -33.6 -28.5 260 35 18 7.9 4.4 | -33.2 -27.8 260 38 20 8.3 4.6
27000 -31.3 -24.3 255 36 18 7.9 4.3 | -30.8 -23.4 260 39 20 7.4 4.1
26000 -28.9 -20.0 260 36 19 7.9 4.4 | -28.6 -19.5 260 39 20 7.4 4.1
25000 -26.5 -15.7 260 37 19 7.9 4.4 | -26.4 -15.5 260 40 20 7.4 4.1
24000 -24.3 -11.7 260 38 19 6.4 3.5 | -24.3 -11.7 260 39 20 6.2 3.4
23000 -22.4 -8.3 260 37 19 6.5 3.6 | -22.5 -8.5 255 38 20 6.3 3.5
22000 -20.5 -4.9 255 36 19 6.6 3.6 | -20.6 -5.1 255 37 19 6.3 3.5
21000 -18.3 -0.9 255 36 18 8.6 4.7 | -18.5 -1.3 250 36 19 8.1 4.4
20000 -15.7 3.7 250 35 18 8.6 4.7 | -16.1 3.0 250 36 18 8.0 4.4
19500 -14.4 6.1 250 35 18 8.6 4.7 | -14.9 5.2 250 35 18 8.0 4.4
19000 -13.1 8.4 250 35 18 8.6 4.7 | -13.7 7.3 250 35 18 8.0 4.4
18500 -11.8 10.8 250 35 18 7.9 4.3 | -11.8 10.8 250 35 18 8.1 4.5
18000 -10.0 14.0 255 34 18 7.9 4.4 | -10.6 12.9 250 34 18 8.2 4.5
17500 -9.0 15.8 255 34 18 6.3 3.4 | -9.5 14.9 250 34 18 7.0 3.8
17000 -8.0 17.6 255 34 18 6.4 3.5 | -8.4 16.9 250 34 17 7.1 3.9
16500 -7.0 19.4 255 34 17 6.0 3.3 | -7.4 18.7 255 33 17 6.5 3.5
16000 -6.2 20.8 255 33 17 5.9 3.3 | -6.4 20.5 255 32 16 6.2 3.4
15500 -5.3 22.5 255 33 17 6.2 3.4 | -5.5 22.1 255 30 16 5.6 3.1
15000 -4.3 24.3 260 32 16 6.8 3.7 | -4.9 23.2 255 28 14 4.2 2.3
14500 -3.3 26.1 260 31 16 6.8 3.8 | -4.3 24.3 255 25 13 4.3 2.4
14000 -2.2 28.0 260 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -3.2 26.2 255 23 12 9.6 5.3
13500 -1.1 30.0 265 28 14 7.5 4.1 | -1.9 28.6 255 22 11 9.2 5.0
13000 -0.0 32.0 265 26 13 7.5 4.1 | -0.5 31.1 255 22 11 9.3 5.1
12500 1.1 34.0 265 24 13 7.5 4.1 | 0.9 33.6 255 21 11 9.3 5.1
12000 2.2 36.0 270 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 2.3 36.1 250 21 11 9.6 5.3
11500 3.3 37.9 270 22 11 8.4 4.6 | 3.7 38.7 250 21 11 9.6 5.3
11000 4.6 40.3 270 21 11 8.4 4.6 | 5.1 41.2 250 21 11 9.2 5.1
10500 5.8 42.4 270 21 11 8.7 4.8 | 6.5 43.7 250 21 11 9.1 5.0
10250 6.4 43.5 270 21 11 6.3 3.5 | 7.2 45.0 250 21 11 9.9 5.4
10000 6.7 44.1 265 20 10 5.3 2.9 | 8.0 46.4 250 21 11 10.0 5.5
9750 7.2 45.0 265 20 10 7.1 3.9 | 8.7 47.7 250 21 11 9.5 5.2
9500 7.7 45.9 260 19 10 6.2 3.4 | 9.4 48.9 250 21 11 9.1 5.0
9250 8.2 46.8 255 19 10 8.0 4.4 | 10.1 50.2 250 21 11 11.3 6.2
9000 8.8 47.8 255 18 9 8.5 4.7 | 11.0 51.8 250 21 11 11.0 6.0
8750 9.4 48.9 250 18 9 7.2 4.0 | 11.7 53.1 250 21 11 8.6 4.7
8500 10.0 50.0 250 18 9 7.3 4.0 | 12.4 54.3 250 21 11 9.0 4.9
8250 10.5 50.9 250 17 9 8.9 4.9 | 13.0 55.4 250 21 11 9.8 5.4
8000 11.3 52.3 245 17 9 10.1 5.5 | 13.8 56.8 255 21 11 10.6 5.8
7750 12.0 53.6 245 17 9 8.9 4.9 | 14.6 58.3 255 20 11 9.9 5.4
7500 12.6 54.7 245 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 15.3 59.5 255 20 10 10.0 5.5
7250 13.3 55.9 245 16 8 10.1 5.6 | 16.1 61.0 255 20 10 10.8 5.9
7000 14.1 57.4 245 16 8 10.8 5.9 | 16.9 62.4 255 20 10 11.8 6.5
6750 14.9 58.8 240 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 17.8 64.0 255 19 10 9.9 5.4
6500 15.6 60.1 240 15 8 11.4 6.2 | 18.6 65.5 255 19 10 15.4 8.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/23/2022 at 1500 MDT | 05/23/2022 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +8.5 LI... 0.0 | CAPE... +5.4 LI... +0.1
CINH... -1.1 K Index... +16.3 | CINH... -28.5 K Index... +22.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.1 -76.2 295 31 16 2.9 1.6 | -59.6 -75.3 280 22 11 3.3 1.8
45000 -56.2 -69.2 285 39 20 -1.1 -0.6 | -55.1 -67.2 270 30 16 0.5 0.3
40000 -58.0 -72.4 265 47 24 -1.1 -0.6 | -54.5 -66.1 270 35 18 0.5 0.3
38000 -56.1 -69.0 260 45 23 4.5 2.5 | -54.0 -65.2 270 36 18 1.0 0.6
36000 -53.4 -64.1 255 42 21 4.5 2.5 | -53.3 -63.9 265 36 19 1.0 0.6
34000 -49.8 -57.6 255 41 21 8.4 4.6 | -50.8 -59.4 260 37 19 7.9 4.3
32000 -44.2 -47.6 255 45 23 8.4 4.6 | -46.0 -50.8 255 38 20 7.9 4.3
30000 -39.1 -38.4 255 44 23 8.6 4.7 | -40.8 -41.4 250 40 20 9.8 5.4
29000 -36.5 -33.7 255 41 21 8.6 4.7 | -37.8 -36.0 245 41 21 9.8 5.4
28000 -34.0 -29.2 255 39 20 8.7 4.8 | -34.9 -30.8 240 42 22 9.8 5.4
27000 -31.4 -24.5 255 39 20 8.8 4.8 | -32.1 -25.8 240 42 22 8.7 4.8
26000 -28.8 -19.8 260 41 21 8.8 4.9 | -29.5 -21.1 235 42 21 8.8 4.8
25000 -26.1 -15.0 265 44 23 8.9 4.9 | -26.9 -16.4 235 41 21 8.8 4.8
24000 -23.8 -10.8 265 46 24 5.0 2.8 | -24.4 -11.9 235 40 21 7.1 3.9
23000 -22.2 -8.0 260 46 24 5.5 3.0 | -22.2 -8.0 235 37 19 7.2 3.9
22000 -20.5 -4.9 260 45 23 5.5 3.0 | -20.1 -4.2 240 34 18 7.2 4.0
21000 -18.9 -2.0 260 43 22 5.9 3.2 | -18.1 -0.6 245 31 16 6.2 3.4
20000 -17.2 1.0 255 36 18 5.9 3.2 | -15.7 3.7 255 25 13 6.3 3.5
19500 -16.3 2.7 255 32 17 5.9 3.2 | -14.8 5.4 255 23 12 6.3 3.5
19000 -15.4 4.3 255 29 15 5.6 3.1 | -13.9 7.0 260 21 11 6.3 3.5
18500 -13.8 7.2 255 26 13 8.3 4.5 | -12.9 8.8 265 19 10 6.3 3.5
18000 -12.5 9.5 255 25 13 8.3 4.5 | -12.0 10.4 270 17 9 6.3 3.5
17500 -11.3 11.7 255 24 12 8.8 4.9 | -11.0 12.2 270 16 8 7.0 3.8
17000 -10.0 14.0 255 24 12 8.8 4.8 | -10.0 14.0 275 15 8 7.1 3.9
16500 -8.6 16.5 255 23 12 9.3 5.1 | -9.0 15.8 275 15 8 7.8 4.3
16000 -7.2 19.0 250 23 12 9.6 5.3 | -7.7 18.1 280 15 8 8.7 4.8
15500 -5.7 21.7 250 23 12 9.7 5.3 | -6.4 20.5 280 15 8 8.8 4.8
15000 -4.3 24.3 250 23 12 9.7 5.3 | -4.9 23.2 280 15 8 10.1 5.6
14500 -2.8 27.0 250 22 12 9.7 5.3 | -3.4 25.9 280 15 8 10.1 5.5
14000 -1.3 29.7 250 22 11 9.8 5.4 | -2.0 28.4 280 15 8 9.7 5.3
13500 0.1 32.2 250 22 11 9.8 5.4 | -0.5 31.1 275 15 8 9.7 5.3
13000 1.6 34.9 250 22 11 9.5 5.2 | 0.9 33.6 275 15 8 9.1 5.0
12500 3.0 37.4 250 21 11 9.4 5.2 | 2.3 36.1 275 15 8 9.0 4.9
12000 4.4 39.9 250 21 11 9.7 5.3 | 3.6 38.5 270 15 8 9.2 5.0
11500 5.9 42.6 250 21 11 9.8 5.4 | 5.0 41.0 265 15 8 9.2 5.0
11000 7.3 45.1 250 21 11 9.9 5.4 | 6.3 43.3 260 15 8 9.4 5.1
10500 8.8 47.8 250 20 10 10.0 5.5 | 7.8 46.0 255 15 8 9.9 5.4
10250 9.6 49.3 250 20 10 9.6 5.3 | 8.5 47.3 255 15 8 8.7 4.8
10000 10.3 50.5 250 20 10 9.5 5.2 | 9.1 48.4 250 15 8 8.4 4.6
9750 11.0 51.8 250 20 10 9.9 5.4 | 9.8 49.6 250 15 8 9.6 5.3
9500 11.7 53.1 250 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 10.5 50.9 245 15 8 8.7 4.8
9250 12.4 54.3 250 19 10 11.1 6.1 | 11.2 52.2 245 16 8 11.2 6.1
9000 13.3 55.9 245 19 10 10.9 6.0 | 12.1 53.8 240 16 8 10.7 5.9
8750 14.0 57.2 245 19 10 9.0 4.9 | 12.7 54.9 235 16 8 8.0 4.4
8500 14.7 58.5 245 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 13.3 55.9 235 16 8 8.5 4.7
8250 15.4 59.7 245 18 9 9.9 5.4 | 14.0 57.2 230 16 8 9.2 5.1
8000 16.2 61.2 245 18 9 10.6 5.8 | 14.7 58.5 230 16 8 10.4 5.7
7750 17.0 62.6 245 18 9 9.9 5.4 | 15.5 59.9 225 16 8 9.5 5.2
7500 17.7 63.9 245 18 9 9.4 5.1 | 16.1 61.0 225 16 8 8.6 4.7
7250 18.4 65.1 240 17 9 10.4 5.7 | 16.8 62.2 220 16 8 9.5 5.2
7000 19.2 66.6 240 17 9 11.7 6.4 | 17.5 63.5 220 15 8 10.4 5.7
6750 20.1 68.2 240 16 8 10.1 5.6 | 18.3 64.9 215 14 7 9.8 5.4
6500 20.9 69.6 240 15 8 14.2 7.8 | 19.0 66.2 215 13 7 9.1 5.0
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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