National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane; Heavy Rainfall Possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Upper Midwest, South Texas

Hurricane Erin may bring isolated flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, and possible tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may bring areas of flooding this weekend over the Upper Midwest. A tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and mainly urban flash flooding to far southern Texas. Read More >

Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Saturday August 16 2025

This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:

If the trigger temperature of 72.5 F/22.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1012 ft/min (5.1 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16057 ft MSL (9733 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 84.0 F/29.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13612 ft MSL (7288 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent


Remarks... 

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:25:21 / 19:51:01 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 25 min 40 sec (805 min 40 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:11 MDT... 68.41 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15916 ft MSL (9592 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12731 ft MSL (6407 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14526 ft MSL (8201 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.9
K index......................... +30.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.9 -86.6   255   20   10   1.7   0.9   77.0 170.6    28.5      M    M
 45000  -60.6 -77.1   250   31   16   6.4   3.5   61.4 142.6    20.7      M    M
 40000  -50.8 -59.4   235   37   19   7.3   4.0   54.6 130.3    17.5      M    M
 38000  -46.4 -51.5   230   37   19   7.3   4.0   52.3 126.2    16.4      M    M
 36000  -42.0 -43.6   220   38   19   7.4   4.0   50.7 123.3    15.6      M    M
 34000  -37.5 -35.5   215   37   19   7.5   4.1   48.5 119.3    14.4      M    M
 32000  -32.5 -26.5   205   38   19   7.9   4.3   46.7 116.1    13.3      M    M
 30000  -27.6 -17.7   210   32   17   8.3   4.5   45.3 113.6    12.6      M    M
 29000  -25.2 -13.4   215   30   15   8.3   4.6   44.8 112.7    12.3      M    M
 28000  -22.8  -9.0   215   27   14   7.1   3.9   44.2 111.6    11.9      M    M
 27000  -20.7  -5.3   215   24   12   7.2   3.9   43.2 109.7    11.2      M    M
 26000  -18.6  -1.5   210   20   10   7.2   3.9   42.2 108.0    10.5      M    M
 25000  -16.5   2.3   210   17    9   6.9   3.8   41.4 106.6     9.9      M    M
 24000  -14.6   5.7   205   17    9   6.5   3.6   40.1 104.2     8.9      M    M
 23000  -12.7   9.1   200   18    9   6.5   3.6   38.9 102.1     8.0      M    M
 22000  -10.8  12.6   200   19   10   6.7   3.7   37.9 100.2     7.1      M    M
 21000   -8.9  16.0   200   19   10   6.7   3.7   36.7  98.1     6.1      M    M
 20000   -6.9  19.6   205   19   10   6.8   3.7   35.7  96.3     5.3      M    M
 19500   -5.9  21.4   205   19   10   6.8   3.7   35.2  95.4     4.9      M    M
 19000   -5.0  23.0   205   19   10   6.0   3.3   34.7  94.4     4.4      M    M
 18500   -4.1  24.6   210   19   10   6.0   3.3   34.1  93.3     3.8      M    M
 18000   -3.0  26.6   210   18    9   2.3   1.2   32.9  91.1     2.7      M    M
 17500   -2.7  27.1   210   17    9   2.8   1.5   31.6  88.9     1.6      M    M
 17000   -2.4  27.7   215   16    8   5.5   3.0   30.5  86.8     0.5      M    M
 16500   -1.2  29.8   210   15    8   8.2   4.5   30.2  86.4     0.2      M    M
 16000    0.0  32.0   210   14    7   8.4   4.6   30.0  86.0    -0.1    797  4.1
 15500    1.0  33.8   210   13    7   5.6   3.1   29.5  85.1    -0.6    754  3.8
 15000    1.8  35.2   210   13    7   5.9   3.2   28.9  84.0    -1.2    714  3.6
 14500    2.6  36.7   210   13    7   5.6   3.1   28.2  82.8    -1.9    675  3.4
 14000    3.4  38.1   210   13    6   5.6   3.1   27.5  81.6    -2.5    637  3.2
 13500    4.2  39.6   210   12    6   5.9   3.2   26.9  80.4    -3.2    598  3.0
 13000    5.0  41.0   210   11    5   6.1   3.3   26.3  79.3    -3.8    558  2.8
 12500    5.9  42.6   215    9    5   6.5   3.6   25.7  78.3    -4.5    518  2.6
 12000    6.9  44.4   225    8    4   7.0   3.8   25.3  77.5    -4.9    473  2.4
 11500    7.9  46.2   235    7    4   6.7   3.7   24.8  76.7    -5.4    427  2.2
 11000    9.0  48.2   245    6    3   8.4   4.6   24.5  76.1    -5.7    379  1.9
 10500   10.2  50.4   255    6    3   7.9   4.4   24.2  75.6    -6.0    328  1.7
 10250   10.8  51.4   260    6    3   7.7   4.2   24.1  75.4    -6.2    303  1.5
 10000   11.4  52.5   265    6    3   8.1   4.4   23.9  75.1    -6.3    278  1.4
  9750   12.0  53.6   265    6    3   8.0   4.4   23.8  74.9    -6.5    253  1.3
  9500   12.6  54.7   270    6    3   8.3   4.6   23.7  74.6    -6.6    227  1.2
  9250   13.2  55.8   270    6    3   8.9   4.9   23.6  74.5    -6.7    201  1.0
  9000   13.9  57.0   275    6    3   8.0   4.4   23.5  74.3    -6.8    175  0.9
  8750   14.4  57.9   275    7    3   7.0   3.9   23.3  74.0    -7.0    151  0.8
  8500   14.9  58.8   275    7    3   7.4   4.1   23.1  73.7    -7.2    128  0.6
  8250   15.5  59.9   275    6    3   7.4   4.1   23.0  73.3    -7.4    104  0.5
  8000   16.0  60.8   275    6    3   7.5   4.1   22.8  73.0    -7.6     80  0.4
  7750   16.6  61.9   275    6    3   7.6   4.2   22.6  72.7    -7.8     56  0.3
  7500   17.1  62.8   275    5    3   6.9   3.8   22.4  72.4    -8.0     33  0.2
  7250   17.6  63.7   270    5    2   6.3   3.4   22.2  72.0    -8.3     12  0.1
  7000   18.1  64.6   265    4    2   6.9   3.8   22.0  71.5    -8.6      M    M
  6750   18.5  65.3   265    3    2   5.9   3.3   21.7  71.1    -8.9      M    M
  6500   18.8  65.8   255    3    1   2.1   1.1   21.3  70.4    -9.3      M    M
  6250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * * 

           08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...  +131.8    LI...       -0.9        | CAPE...  +444.8    LI...       -1.8
CINH...   -20.9    K Index... +31.0        | CINH...    -0.5    K Index... +31.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.6 -86.1  255  15  8   1.4   0.8 | -65.4 -85.7  250  14  7   1.9   1.0
 45000 -60.6 -77.1  255  28 14   6.3   3.5 | -60.3 -76.5  250  25 13   5.9   3.2
 40000 -50.8 -59.4  240  35 18   7.7   4.2 | -51.0 -59.8  235  33 17   7.8   4.3
 38000 -46.1 -51.0  235  35 18   7.7   4.2 | -46.3 -51.3  230  34 17   7.8   4.3
 36000 -41.5 -42.7  230  35 18   7.7   4.2 | -41.6 -42.9  225  35 18   7.9   4.3
 34000 -36.4 -33.5  220  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -36.3 -33.3  225  31 16   7.9   4.3
 32000 -31.8 -25.2  210  32 16   7.4   4.1 | -31.5 -24.7  225  27 14   7.7   4.2
 30000 -27.6 -17.7  205  30 15   7.2   3.9 | -27.1 -16.8  220  30 15   7.4   4.1
 29000 -25.4 -13.7  205  29 15   7.2   4.0 | -24.9 -12.8  215  31 16   7.4   4.1
 28000 -23.3  -9.9  205  27 14   7.1   3.9 | -22.8  -9.0  215  31 16   6.3   3.4
 27000 -21.2  -6.2  205  25 13   7.1   3.9 | -20.9  -5.6  215  29 15   6.5   3.5
 26000 -19.1  -2.4  205  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -19.1  -2.4  210  28 14   6.6   3.6
 25000 -17.0   1.4  205  20 10   6.9   3.8 | -17.2   1.0  205  26 13   7.0   3.8
 24000 -15.0   5.0  210  20 10   6.8   3.7 | -15.0   5.0  210  24 12   7.2   4.0
 23000 -13.0   8.6  210  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -12.8   9.0  215  23 12   7.2   4.0
 22000 -11.1  12.0  210  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -10.6  12.9  220  21 11   6.8   3.7
 21000  -9.1  15.6  215  17  9   6.8   3.7 |  -8.8  16.2  225  18  9   6.5   3.6
 20000  -7.2  19.0  220  16  8   6.8   3.7 |  -6.9  19.6  230  16  8   6.6   3.6
 19500  -6.2  20.8  220  16  8   6.9   3.8 |  -6.0  21.2  230  14  7   6.7   3.7
 19000  -5.2  22.6  220  16  8   6.2   3.4 |  -4.6  23.7  235  14  7   6.0   3.3
 18500  -3.9  25.0  220  16  8   6.5   3.6 |  -3.8  25.2  235  14  7   6.1   3.4
 18000  -3.1  26.4  225  16  8   4.8   2.6 |  -3.0  26.6  240  14  7   4.9   2.7
 17500  -2.4  27.7  225  15  8   4.9   2.7 |  -2.3  27.9  240  14  7   5.1   2.8
 17000  -1.7  28.9  225  15  8   4.8   2.6 |  -1.6  29.1  245  14  7   4.9   2.7
 16500  -1.1  30.0  230  14  7   4.7   2.6 |  -1.0  30.2  250  12  6   4.9   2.7
 16000  -0.5  31.1  230  12  6   4.9   2.7 |  -0.3  31.5  255  11  6   4.9   2.7
 15500   0.5  32.9  235  11  6   7.9   4.3 |   0.4  32.7  260  10  5   5.1   2.8
 15000   1.6  34.9  235  10  5   7.8   4.3 |   1.1  34.0  265   9  4   4.9   2.7
 14500   2.6  36.7  240   9  5   6.2   3.4 |   1.9  35.4  270   8  4   8.1   4.5
 14000   3.5  38.3  245   8  4   6.2   3.4 |   3.1  37.6  270   7  4   8.2   4.5
 13500   4.3  39.7  250   8  4   6.2   3.4 |   4.2  39.6  275   7  4   8.0   4.4
 13000   5.2  41.4  255   7  4   6.3   3.4 |   5.3  41.5  275   7  3   8.0   4.4
 12500   6.1  43.0  255   7  4   6.5   3.6 |   6.4  43.5  275   7  3   8.4   4.6
 12000   7.1  44.8  260   7  3   6.7   3.7 |   7.7  45.9  275   6  3   8.7   4.8
 11500   8.0  46.4  260   6  3   5.8   3.2 |   9.0  48.2  275   6  3   9.2   5.0
 11000   9.0  48.2  265   6  3   7.8   4.3 |  10.4  50.7  275   6  3   9.6   5.3
 10500  10.1  50.2  265   5  3   6.9   3.8 |  11.9  53.4  270   6  3   8.9   4.9
 10250  10.6  51.1  270   5  3   6.6   3.6 |  12.5  54.5  270   6  3   8.9   4.9
 10000  11.1  52.0  270   5  3   7.5   4.1 |  13.2  55.8  270   6  3  10.1   5.5
  9750  11.6  52.9  275   5  3   7.5   4.1 |  14.0  57.2  270   6  3   9.9   5.4
  9500  12.2  54.0  280   5  2   7.7   4.2 |  14.7  58.5  265   5  3  10.2   5.6
  9250  12.8  55.0  280   5  2   8.0   4.4 |  15.5  59.9  265   5  3  10.5   5.8
  9000  13.3  55.9  285   4  2   7.8   4.3 |  16.3  61.3  265   5  3  10.0   5.5
  8750  13.9  57.0  285   4  2   7.5   4.1 |  17.0  62.6  260   5  3   9.6   5.2
  8500  14.4  57.9  285   4  2   8.2   4.5 |  17.7  63.9  260   5  3   9.9   5.4
  8250  15.1  59.2  280   4  2   8.8   4.8 |  18.5  65.3  255   5  2  10.2   5.6
  8000  15.7  60.3  275   3  2   8.5   4.6 |  19.2  66.6  255   5  2  10.0   5.5
  7750  16.3  61.3  270   3  2   8.6   4.7 |  20.0  68.0  255   5  2   9.9   5.4
  7500  17.0  62.6  265   3  2   9.7   5.3 |  20.7  69.3  250   4  2  10.4   5.7
  7250  17.7  63.9  260   3  1  10.4   5.7 |  21.5  70.7  250   4  2  11.1   6.1
  7000  18.5  65.3  255   3  1   9.8   5.4 |  22.3  72.1  245   4  2   9.8   5.4
  6750  19.2  66.6  250   3  1  10.9   6.0 |  23.1  73.6  245   4  2  13.2   7.2
  6500  20.2  68.4  245   2  1  14.1   7.8 |  24.4  75.9  240   4  2  23.5  12.9
  6250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...  +168.5    LI...       -0.8        | CAPE...   +41.8    LI...       +0.2
CINH...    -6.7    K Index... +30.6        | CINH...    -0.1    K Index... +29.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.7 -86.3  235  13  7   1.8   1.0 | -65.5 -85.9  220   9  5   1.9   1.0
 45000 -60.3 -76.5  245  24 13   6.6   3.6 | -60.2 -76.4  240  17  9   6.4   3.5
 40000 -50.4 -58.7  235  30 15   6.9   3.8 | -50.2 -58.4  245  19 10   7.7   4.2
 38000 -46.2 -51.2  230  30 16   6.9   3.8 | -45.6 -50.1  240  23 12   7.7   4.2
 36000 -42.1 -43.8  230  31 16   7.4   4.0 | -41.0 -41.8  235  28 14   7.6   4.2
 34000 -36.6 -33.9  230  31 16   8.2   4.5 | -35.9 -32.6  235  29 15   7.5   4.1
 32000 -31.7 -25.1  230  32 16   8.2   4.5 | -31.4 -24.5  230  30 15   7.5   4.1
 30000 -26.8 -16.2  225  28 14   8.1   4.5 | -26.9 -16.4  235  26 13   7.6   4.1
 29000 -24.4 -11.9  225  26 13   8.1   4.5 | -24.7 -12.5  235  24 12   7.6   4.2
 28000 -22.1  -7.8  225  24 12   5.5   3.0 | -22.4  -8.3  240  22 11   7.7   4.2
 27000 -20.4  -4.7  230  23 12   5.8   3.2 | -20.1  -4.2  240  19 10   7.7   4.2
 26000 -18.7  -1.7  230  21 11   5.8   3.2 | -17.8  -0.0  245  16  8   7.7   4.2
 25000 -17.0   1.4  230  20 10   6.3   3.5 | -15.5   4.1  250  13  7   6.7   3.7
 24000 -15.0   5.0  230  21 11   7.0   3.9 | -13.7   7.3  250  14  7   5.8   3.2
 23000 -12.9   8.8  230  22 11   7.1   3.9 | -12.0  10.4  250  15  8   5.9   3.2
 22000 -10.9  12.4  230  23 12   7.0   3.9 | -10.3  13.5  250  16  8   6.1   3.4
 21000  -8.8  16.2  230  20 10   6.9   3.8 |  -8.4  16.9  250  15  8   6.4   3.5
 20000  -6.8  19.8  235  16  8   6.9   3.8 |  -6.6  20.1  250  15  8   6.4   3.5
 19500  -5.2  22.6  240  14  7   6.5   3.6 |  -5.6  21.9  255  15  8   6.6   3.6
 19000  -4.3  24.3  245  13  7   6.4   3.5 |  -5.1  22.8  255  15  8   1.6   0.9
 18500  -3.4  25.9  250  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  -4.9  23.2  260  14  7   2.1   1.2
 18000  -2.7  27.1  250  12  6   2.9   1.6 |  -4.3  24.3  265  13  7   7.4   4.0
 17500  -2.3  27.9  255  12  6   3.3   1.8 |  -3.3  26.1  270  12  6   7.0   3.8
 17000  -1.9  28.6  260  11  6   4.0   2.2 |  -2.4  27.7  275  12  6   7.3   4.0
 16500  -1.4  29.5  265  11  6   4.6   2.5 |  -1.3  29.7  280  11  6   7.6   4.1
 16000  -0.8  30.6  270  12  6   5.1   2.8 |  -0.2  31.6  280  11  6   7.8   4.3
 15500   0.2  32.4  270  12  6   9.5   5.2 |   1.0  33.8  280  11  6   9.1   5.0
 15000   1.5  34.7  275  12  6   9.3   5.1 |   2.4  36.3  280  11  5   8.9   4.9
 14500   2.8  37.0  275  11  6   8.1   4.4 |   3.8  38.8  280  10  5   9.8   5.4
 14000   3.9  39.0  275  11  6   8.1   4.4 |   5.2  41.4  280  10  5   9.8   5.4
 13500   5.1  41.2  275  11  6   8.4   4.6 |   6.7  44.1  280  10  5   9.7   5.3
 13000   6.3  43.3  275  11  5   8.5   4.7 |   8.1  46.6  275  10  5   9.7   5.3
 12500   7.6  45.7  275  10  5   9.0   4.9 |   9.6  49.3  275  10  5   9.6   5.3
 12000   9.0  48.2  275  10  5   9.4   5.2 |  11.0  51.8  275  10  5   9.5   5.2
 11500  10.4  50.7  275   9  5   9.5   5.2 |  12.4  54.3  270  10  5   9.7   5.3
 11000  11.8  53.2  275   9  5   9.4   5.2 |  13.9  57.0  270   9  5   9.8   5.4
 10500  13.2  55.8  275   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  15.4  59.7  265   9  5   8.7   4.8
 10250  13.9  57.0  275   8  4   9.7   5.3 |  16.0  60.8  265   9  5   8.8   4.8
 10000  14.7  58.5  275   8  4   9.9   5.4 |  16.7  62.1  265   9  5  10.5   5.7
  9750  15.4  59.7  270   8  4   9.8   5.4 |  17.5  63.5  260   9  5   9.9   5.5
  9500  16.1  61.0  270   7  4  10.1   5.5 |  18.2  64.8  260   9  5  10.4   5.7
  9250  16.9  62.4  270   7  4  10.4   5.7 |  19.0  66.2  260   9  5  10.7   5.9
  9000  17.6  63.7  270   7  3   9.5   5.2 |  19.8  67.6  260   9  5   9.6   5.3
  8750  18.3  64.9  270   6  3   8.7   4.8 |  20.5  68.9  255   9  5   8.8   4.8
  8500  19.0  66.2  270   6  3   9.6   5.3 |  21.1  70.0  255   9  5   9.3   5.1
  8250  19.7  67.5  265   6  3  10.6   5.8 |  21.8  71.2  255   9  5   9.5   5.2
  8000  20.5  68.9  265   5  3   9.9   5.4 |  22.6  72.7  250   9  5   9.8   5.4
  7750  21.2  70.2  260   5  3   9.0   4.9 |  23.3  73.9  250   9  5  10.3   5.6
  7500  21.9  71.4  260   5  3   9.7   5.3 |  24.1  75.4  250   9  5  10.1   5.5
  7250  22.7  72.9  260   5  2  10.7   5.9 |  24.8  76.6  245   9  4   9.9   5.4
  7000  23.4  74.1  255   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  25.5  77.9  245   9  4   9.8   5.4
  6750  24.2  75.6  250   4  2  10.7   5.9 |  26.3  79.3  245   8  4  11.1   6.1
  6500  25.1  77.2  250   4  2  14.7   8.1 |  27.2  81.0  240   8  4  14.2   7.8
  6250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local 
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial 
issuance. 

The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at

                   North Latitude:  34.9781667 deg
                   West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
                   Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive 
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of 
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it 
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above 
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain 
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger 
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of 
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158 
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions. 

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the 
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum 
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It 
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures 
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet 
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.  

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
  
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights: 
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the 
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor  

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which 
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough 
     movements.

042613

Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0726 MDT Saturday August 16 2025

This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:

If the trigger temperature of 74.4 F/23.6 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1048 ft/min (5.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16008 ft MSL (10338 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 87.0 F/31.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13508 ft MSL (7838 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent


Remarks... 

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:27:45 / 19:53:36 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 25 min 50 sec (805 min 50 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:10:40 MDT... 68.30 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15646 ft MSL (9976 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12498 ft MSL (6828 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14378 ft MSL (8708 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.3
K index......................... +31.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.7 -86.3   245   21   11   1.8   1.0   79.8 175.6    29.0      M    M
 45000  -60.2 -76.4   245   32   17   6.5   3.6   64.4 148.0    21.4      M    M
 40000  -50.2 -58.4   235   36   19   7.5   4.1   57.8 136.1    18.4      M    M
 38000  -45.7 -50.3   230   35   18   7.5   4.1   55.7 132.2    17.4      M    M
 36000  -41.2 -42.2   225   34   18   7.3   4.0   54.1 129.4    16.7      M    M
 34000  -36.8 -34.2   210   34   18   6.5   3.6   50.8 123.4    14.8      M    M
 32000  -33.0 -27.4   195   36   19   7.0   3.8   48.5 119.3    13.3      M    M
 30000  -28.3 -18.9   205   32   16   7.8   4.3   46.7 116.1    12.3      M    M
 29000  -26.0 -14.8   210   30   15   7.8   4.3   46.1 114.9    11.9      M    M
 28000  -23.7 -10.7   215   28   14   7.3   4.0   45.4 113.7    11.5      M    M
 27000  -21.5  -6.7   210   25   13   7.4   4.1   44.3 111.8    10.8      M    M
 26000  -19.4  -2.9   205   22   11   7.5   4.1   43.5 110.3    10.2      M    M
 25000  -17.3   0.9   195   19   10   7.4   4.1   42.8 109.0     9.6      M    M
 24000  -15.2   4.6   200   17    9   6.8   3.7   41.6 106.9     8.7      M    M
 23000  -13.2   8.2   205   16    8   6.8   3.8   40.6 105.0     7.9      M    M
 22000  -11.2  11.8   215   15    8   6.9   3.8   39.6 103.3     7.2      M    M
 21000   -8.6  16.5   215   16    8   7.1   3.9   38.4 101.1     6.1      M    M
 20000   -6.5  20.3   215   16    8   7.1   3.9   37.5  99.5     5.4      M    M
 19500   -5.5  22.1   215   16    8   6.8   3.7   37.1  98.8     5.1      M    M
 19000   -4.6  23.7   215   17    8   6.1   3.4   36.5  97.6     4.5      M    M
 18500   -3.7  25.3   215   17    9   6.3   3.4   35.8  96.5     3.9      M    M
 18000   -3.0  26.6   215   17    9   4.4   2.4   35.1  95.2     3.3      M    M
 17500   -2.4  27.7   215   17    8   4.3   2.3   34.2  93.5     2.4      M    M
 17000   -1.8  28.8   215   16    8   4.4   2.4   33.3  91.9     1.6      M    M
 16500   -1.1  30.0   215   15    8   4.8   2.6   32.4  90.3     0.8      M    M
 16000   -0.5  31.1   215   13    7   4.6   2.5   31.6  88.8    -0.0    846  4.3
 15500    0.3  32.5   215   12    6   6.9   3.8   30.9  87.6    -0.7    808  4.1
 15000    1.3  34.3   215   10    5   6.7   3.7   30.4  86.7    -1.2    764  3.9
 14500    2.2  36.0   215    9    5   6.2   3.4   29.9  85.8    -1.7    721  3.7
 14000    3.0  37.4   220    8    4   6.1   3.3   29.3  84.7    -2.4    682  3.5
 13500    3.9  39.0   225    8    4   6.0   3.3   28.7  83.6    -3.0    642  3.3
 13000    4.7  40.5   230    7    4   6.0   3.3   28.1  82.5    -3.6    602  3.1
 12500    5.5  41.9   235    7    4   6.3   3.5   27.5  81.5    -4.3    562  2.9
 12000    6.5  43.7   240    7    3   7.2   4.0   27.0  80.6    -4.7    518  2.6
 11500    7.6  45.7   245    6    3   7.2   3.9   26.6  79.9    -5.2    472  2.4
 11000    8.6  47.5   250    6    3   7.2   4.0   26.2  79.2    -5.6    426  2.2
 10500    9.7  49.5   250    5    3   7.4   4.0   25.8  78.5    -6.0    379  1.9
 10250   10.2  50.4   260    5    2   7.6   4.2   25.7  78.2    -6.2    355  1.8
 10000   10.8  51.4   265    4    2   7.6   4.2   25.5  77.9    -6.4    331  1.7
  9750   11.3  52.3   265    4    2   7.6   4.2   25.3  77.6    -6.6    307  1.6
  9500   11.9  53.4   270    4    2   7.5   4.1   25.2  77.3    -6.8    283  1.4
  9250   12.5  54.5   275    4    2   7.9   4.3   25.0  77.0    -6.9    259  1.3
  9000   13.1  55.6   280    3    2   8.1   4.5   24.9  76.8    -7.1    234  1.2
  8750   13.7  56.7   285    3    2   8.3   4.6   24.7  76.5    -7.2    208  1.1
  8500   14.2  57.6   285    3    2   7.2   4.0   24.6  76.3    -7.4    183  0.9
  8250   14.7  58.5   285    3    2   7.4   4.1   24.4  75.9    -7.6    161  0.8
  8000   16.0  60.8   290    3    1   9.1   5.0   24.2  75.6    -7.8    108  0.5
  7750   16.7  62.1   290    3    1   7.8   4.3   24.2  75.5    -7.9     81  0.4
  7500   17.2  63.0   285    2    1   6.8   3.7   23.9  75.1    -8.2     58  0.3
  7250   17.7  63.9   285    2    1   8.3   4.6   23.8  74.8    -8.4     34  0.2
  7000   18.4  65.1   290    2    1   8.5   4.7   23.7  74.7    -8.5      8  0.0
  6750   19.0  66.2   295    2    1   7.3   4.0   23.6  74.4    -8.6      M    M
  6500   19.4  66.9   295    2    1   6.4   3.5   23.3  74.0    -8.9      M    M
  6250   19.9  67.8   295    1    1   7.7   4.2   23.1  73.6    -9.1      M    M
  6000   20.4  68.7   305    1    0   4.3   2.4   22.9  73.2    -9.4      M    M
  5750   19.8  67.6   000    0    0 -28.5 -15.6   21.6  70.8   -10.8      M    M
  5500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * * 

           08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...   +65.4    LI...       -0.7        | CAPE...  +130.1    LI...       -0.2
CINH...   -26.1    K Index... +30.7        | CINH...    -6.1    K Index... +29.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.4 -85.7  245  17  9   1.3   0.7 | -65.4 -85.7  240  16  8   1.7   0.9
 45000 -60.5 -76.9  245  29 15   6.5   3.5 | -60.3 -76.5  245  28 15   6.3   3.5
 40000 -50.5 -58.9  235  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -50.6 -59.1  235  33 17   7.3   4.0
 38000 -46.0 -50.8  230  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -46.2 -51.2  230  34 17   7.3   4.0
 36000 -41.5 -42.7  230  34 17   7.6   4.2 | -41.3 -42.3  230  34 18   7.6   4.2
 34000 -36.3 -33.3  230  27 14   7.7   4.2 | -36.7 -34.1  230  29 15   7.7   4.2
 32000 -31.7 -25.1  225  22 11   7.5   4.1 | -32.1 -25.8  225  24 12   7.7   4.2
 30000 -27.5 -17.5  215  25 13   7.0   3.8 | -27.4 -17.3  225  20 10   7.8   4.3
 29000 -25.4 -13.7  210  27 14   7.0   3.8 | -25.0 -13.0  225  18  9   7.9   4.3
 28000 -23.4 -10.1  205  29 15   7.0   3.9 | -22.8  -9.0  225  17  9   5.8   3.2
 27000 -21.3  -6.3  205  27 14   7.0   3.9 | -21.0  -5.8  225  18  9   6.0   3.3
 26000 -19.2  -2.6  205  26 13   7.1   3.9 | -19.3  -2.7  220  19 10   6.0   3.3
 25000 -17.1   1.2  205  24 12   6.8   3.7 | -17.5   0.5  215  20 10   6.4   3.5
 24000 -15.3   4.5  205  22 11   6.1   3.3 | -15.4   4.3  215  20 10   7.1   3.9
 23000 -13.6   7.5  210  19 10   6.2   3.4 | -13.3   8.1  220  20 10   7.2   3.9
 22000 -11.8  10.8  210  17  9   6.6   3.6 | -10.7  12.7  220  20 10   7.1   3.9
 21000  -9.2  15.4  210  16  8   7.1   3.9 |  -8.6  16.5  225  19 10   7.1   3.9
 20000  -7.2  19.0  210  16  8   7.0   3.9 |  -6.5  20.3  230  18  9   7.1   3.9
 19500  -6.1  21.0  215  16  8   6.6   3.6 |  -5.4  22.3  230  17  9   6.8   3.7
 19000  -5.3  22.5  215  15  8   6.0   3.3 |  -4.5  23.9  235  17  9   6.3   3.4
 18500  -4.4  24.1  220  15  8   6.1   3.3 |  -3.6  25.5  235  16  8   6.4   3.5
 18000  -3.6  25.5  225  15  8   5.2   2.8 |  -2.8  27.0  235  16  8   4.6   2.5
 17500  -3.0  26.6  230  14  7   5.2   2.9 |  -2.2  28.0  235  15  8   4.6   2.5
 17000  -2.3  27.9  230  14  7   5.4   3.0 |  -1.5  29.3  240  14  7   4.4   2.4
 16500  -1.5  29.3  235  12  6   5.7   3.1 |  -1.0  30.2  240  12  6   4.1   2.3
 16000  -0.7  30.7  240  11  6   5.7   3.1 |  -0.5  31.1  240  11  5   4.1   2.3
 15500   0.2  32.4  245  10  5   6.6   3.6 |   0.2  32.4  250   9  5   6.5   3.6
 15000   1.1  34.0  250   9  5   6.6   3.6 |   1.0  33.8  260   7  4   6.4   3.5
 14500   2.0  35.6  255   9  4   6.3   3.4 |   1.9  35.4  275   6  3   6.9   3.8
 14000   2.9  37.2  265   8  4   6.2   3.4 |   2.9  37.2  290   6  3   7.0   3.8
 13500   3.8  38.8  270   8  4   6.5   3.6 |   3.9  39.0  300   6  3   6.6   3.6
 13000   4.8  40.6  275   8  4   6.8   3.7 |   4.7  40.5  305   6  3   6.3   3.5
 12500   5.7  42.3  285   8  4   7.3   4.0 |   5.6  42.1  305   6  3   7.3   4.0
 12000   6.9  44.4  285   8  4   8.2   4.5 |   6.8  44.2  305   6  3   8.9   4.9
 11500   8.1  46.6  290   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   8.1  46.6  305   6  3   9.0   4.9
 11000   9.1  48.4  295   7  4   6.7   3.7 |   9.5  49.1  305   6  3   9.2   5.1
 10500  10.0  50.0  300   6  3   7.2   4.0 |  10.9  51.6  305   6  3   9.5   5.2
 10250  10.6  51.1  300   5  3   7.0   3.8 |  11.6  52.9  305   6  3   9.6   5.3
 10000  11.0  51.8  305   5  2   6.4   3.5 |  12.3  54.1  300   6  3   9.5   5.2
  9750  11.5  52.7  310   4  2   6.6   3.6 |  13.0  55.4  300   6  3   9.8   5.4
  9500  12.0  53.6  320   4  2   6.3   3.5 |  13.7  56.7  300   6  3   8.6   4.7
  9250  12.5  54.5  330   4  2   7.1   3.9 |  14.3  57.7  300   6  3   9.1   5.0
  9000  13.1  55.6  330   4  2   7.8   4.3 |  15.1  59.2  300   6  3  10.4   5.7
  8750  13.6  56.5  335   4  2   8.0   4.4 |  15.8  60.4  300   6  3  10.5   5.8
  8500  14.2  57.6  335   3  2   6.5   3.6 |  16.6  61.9  300   7  3   8.6   4.7
  8250  14.6  58.3  335   3  2   7.0   3.8 |  17.2  63.0  300   6  3   8.8   4.8
  8000  15.9  60.6  330   3  1   9.3   5.1 |  18.8  65.8  295   7  3  10.7   5.9
  7750  16.6  61.9  325   3  1   8.1   4.4 |  19.5  67.1  295   7  3   9.5   5.2
  7500  17.1  62.8  320   2  1   7.6   4.2 |  20.2  68.4  295   7  3   9.1   5.0
  7250  17.8  64.0  310   2  1  10.3   5.6 |  21.8  71.2  295   6  3  11.2   6.2
  7000  18.6  65.5  310   2  1  11.0   6.1 |  21.8  71.2  295   6  3  11.6   6.4
  6750  19.4  66.9  305   2  1   9.8   5.4 |  22.6  72.7  295   6  3  10.4   5.7
  6500  20.1  68.2  300   2  1   9.6   5.2 |  23.4  74.1  290   6  3  10.3   5.6
  6250  20.8  69.4  290   2  1   9.5   5.2 |  24.1  75.4  290   6  3   9.5   5.2
  6000  21.5  70.7  295   2  1  12.0   6.6 |  24.9  76.8  290   6  3  14.8   8.1
  5750  22.9  73.2  275   2  1  29.6  16.2 |  27.3  81.1  290   6  3  59.2  32.5
  5500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...   +83.5    LI...       +0.3        | CAPE...   +39.8    LI...       -1.1
CINH...    -2.3    K Index... +31.2        | CINH...    -8.8    K Index... +27.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.4 -85.7  235  13  7   1.9   1.0 | -65.8 -86.4  230  10  5   1.8   1.0
 45000 -60.1 -76.2  245  23 12   6.4   3.5 | -60.3 -76.5  240  18  9   6.7   3.7
 40000 -50.4 -58.7  245  26 13   7.1   3.9 | -50.1 -58.2  240  20 10   7.5   4.1
 38000 -46.1 -51.0  235  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -45.6 -50.1  240  22 11   7.5   4.1
 36000 -41.3 -42.3  230  32 16   7.6   4.2 | -40.5 -40.9  235  24 12   7.4   4.1
 34000 -36.7 -34.1  230  29 15   7.7   4.2 | -36.1 -33.0  235  25 13   7.4   4.1
 32000 -32.2 -26.0  230  27 14   7.7   4.2 | -31.7 -25.1  230  27 14   7.4   4.1
 30000 -27.5 -17.5  230  22 11   7.7   4.2 | -27.2 -17.0  230  21 11   7.4   4.1
 29000 -25.2 -13.4  230  19 10   7.7   4.3 | -25.0 -13.0  230  18  9   7.4   4.1
 28000 -22.9  -9.2  230  17  9   7.3   4.0 | -22.8  -9.0  230  15  8   8.0   4.4
 27000 -20.7  -5.3  235  16  8   7.3   4.0 | -20.4  -4.7  235  14  7   8.0   4.4
 26000 -18.6  -1.5  240  15  8   7.3   4.0 | -18.0  -0.4  235  12  6   8.0   4.4
 25000 -16.4   2.5  240  14  7   6.8   3.7 | -15.6   3.9  240  11  6   7.3   4.0
 24000 -14.7   5.5  235  16  8   5.7   3.1 | -13.8   7.2  245  12  6   6.1   3.4
 23000 -13.0   8.6  230  18  9   5.7   3.1 | -11.9  10.6  250  13  7   6.2   3.4
 22000 -10.8  12.6  225  20 10   7.4   4.1 |  -9.8  14.4  250  15  7   4.1   2.2
 21000  -8.6  16.5  230  19 10   7.4   4.1 |  -8.7  16.3  260  14  7   4.2   2.3
 20000  -6.4  20.5  230  18  9   7.4   4.0 |  -7.5  18.5  265  13  7   4.4   2.4
 19500  -5.3  22.5  230  17  9   6.4   3.5 |  -6.9  19.6  270  13  6   4.8   2.6
 19000  -4.5  23.9  235  16  8   5.2   2.8 |  -6.2  20.8  270  13  7   5.2   2.8
 18500  -3.8  25.2  240  15  8   5.6   3.1 |  -5.5  22.1  270  13  7   5.1   2.8
 18000  -3.4  25.9  245  13  7   1.0   0.5 |  -4.7  23.5  270  13  7   7.0   3.8
 17500  -3.4  25.9  255  12  6   1.3   0.7 |  -3.7  25.3  270  13  7   7.1   3.9
 17000  -3.3  26.1  265  11  5   3.8   2.1 |  -2.7  27.1  265  13  6   7.6   4.1
 16500  -2.4  27.7  265  10  5   7.3   4.0 |  -1.5  29.3  265  12  6   8.3   4.6
 16000  -1.4  29.5  270   9  5   7.4   4.0 |  -0.3  31.5  265  11  6   8.3   4.6
 15500  -0.2  31.6  270   9  5   9.5   5.2 |   1.0  33.8  265  11  5   8.9   4.9
 15000   1.1  34.0  270   9  4   9.4   5.1 |   2.2  36.0  270  10  5   8.8   4.8
 14500   2.5  36.5  275   8  4   9.3   5.1 |   3.6  38.5  270   9  5   9.2   5.1
 14000   3.9  39.0  275   8  4   9.3   5.1 |   4.9  40.8  270   9  5   9.3   5.1
 13500   5.2  41.4  275   8  4   9.4   5.2 |   6.3  43.3  275   9  4   9.5   5.2
 13000   6.6  43.9  275   8  4   9.5   5.2 |   7.8  46.0  275   8  4   9.6   5.3
 12500   8.1  46.6  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |   9.2  48.6  280   8  4   9.6   5.3
 12000   9.5  49.1  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  10.6  51.1  280   8  4   9.5   5.2
 11500  10.9  51.6  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  12.0  53.6  280   8  4   9.4   5.2
 11000  12.3  54.1  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  13.4  56.1  285   8  4   9.0   4.9
 10500  13.7  56.7  280   8  4   9.6   5.3 |  14.8  58.6  285   8  4  10.1   5.6
 10250  14.4  57.9  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  15.5  59.9  285   8  4   9.6   5.3
 10000  15.1  59.2  280   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  16.2  61.2  290   8  4   9.3   5.1
  9750  15.8  60.4  285   8  4   9.2   5.1 |  16.9  62.4  290   8  4   9.2   5.0
  9500  16.5  61.7  285   8  4  10.2   5.6 |  17.6  63.7  290   8  4  10.1   5.6
  9250  17.3  63.1  285   8  4  10.5   5.7 |  18.4  65.1  290   8  4  10.2   5.6
  9000  18.0  64.4  285   8  4   9.5   5.2 |  19.1  66.4  290   8  4   9.1   5.0
  8750  18.8  65.8  285   8  4  10.2   5.6 |  19.8  67.6  295   8  4   9.8   5.4
  8500  19.5  67.1  285   8  4   8.2   4.5 |  20.5  68.9  295   8  4   8.1   4.4
  8250  20.1  68.2  285   7  4   8.8   4.8 |  21.8  71.2  295   8  4  10.4   5.7
  8000  21.6  70.9  285   7  4  10.8   5.9 |  22.5  72.5  295   8  4  10.1   5.5
  7750  22.4  72.3  285   7  4   9.9   5.4 |  23.3  73.9  295   8  4   9.5   5.2
  7500  23.1  73.6  285   7  4   9.3   5.1 |  23.9  75.0  300   8  4   8.9   4.9
  7250  23.9  75.0  285   7  4  10.5   5.8 |  24.6  76.3  300   8  4   9.6   5.3
  7000  24.7  76.5  285   7  4  10.8   5.9 |  25.4  77.7  300   8  4   9.9   5.4
  6750  25.5  77.9  285   7  4  10.5   5.8 |  26.1  79.0  300   8  4   9.5   5.2
  6500  26.3  79.3  285   7  4  10.8   5.9 |  26.8  80.2  300   8  4   9.4   5.2
  6250  27.0  80.6  285   7  4   9.7   5.3 |  27.5  81.5  300   8  4   9.0   4.9
  6000  27.8  82.0  285   7  3  14.8   8.1 |  28.2  82.8  300   8  4  11.7   6.4
  5750  30.2  86.4  285   6  3  59.2  32.5 |  29.7  85.5  305   7  4  34.8  19.1
  5500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance. 

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at

                   North Latitude:  35.03806 deg
                   West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
                   Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of 
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive 
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of 
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it 
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above 
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain 
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger 
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of 
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158 
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions. 

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the 
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum 
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It 
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures 
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet 
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.  

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
  
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights: 
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the 
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor  

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which 
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough 
     movements.

042613

Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0727 MDT Saturday August 16 2025

This forecast is for Saturday, August 16, 2025:

If the trigger temperature of 72.6 F/22.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1111 ft/min (5.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 17093 ft MSL (10651 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 85.0 F/29.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14277 ft MSL (7836 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/17....... Excellent


Remarks... 

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:24:47 / 19:52:21 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 27 min 35 sec (807 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:34 MDT... 67.77 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/16/2025 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15835 ft MSL (9393 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13087 ft MSL (6645 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14989 ft MSL (8547 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.8
K index......................... +30.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.5 -85.9   250   22   11   1.4   0.8   77.3 171.1    28.4      M    M
 45000  -60.3 -76.5   250   33   17   6.5   3.6   61.5 142.6    20.4      M    M
 40000  -50.5 -58.9   245   35   18   6.6   3.6   54.5 130.1    17.1      M    M
 38000  -46.5 -51.7   230   35   18   6.6   3.6   51.6 125.0    15.5      M    M
 36000  -42.5 -44.5   220   36   19   7.1   3.9   49.4 121.0    14.3      M    M
 34000  -37.8 -36.0   215   36   18   7.9   4.3   47.6 117.6    13.3      M    M
 32000  -33.1 -27.6   205   35   18   8.0   4.4   46.3 115.4    12.6      M    M
 30000  -28.4 -19.1   210   30   15   7.8   4.3   44.7 112.4    11.7      M    M
 29000  -25.4 -13.7   215   26   13   7.8   4.3   43.8 110.9    11.2      M    M
 28000  -23.2  -9.8   215   23   12   6.9   3.8   43.0 109.5    10.7      M    M
 27000  -21.1  -6.0   205   21   11   7.0   3.9   41.9 107.4     9.8      M    M
 26000  -19.1  -2.4   200   20   10   7.1   3.9   40.9 105.7     9.1      M    M
 25000  -17.1   1.2   195   19   10   7.2   4.0   40.1 104.2     8.4      M    M
 24000  -14.9   5.2   200   18   10   7.2   4.0   39.1 102.3     7.6      M    M
 23000  -12.8   9.0   205   18    9   7.2   4.0   38.1 100.7     6.9      M    M
 22000  -10.7  12.7   210   18    9   7.3   4.0   37.3  99.2     6.2      M    M
 21000   -8.5  16.7   215   19   10   7.3   4.0   36.4  97.5     5.5      M    M
 20000   -6.4  20.5   215   19   10   7.3   4.0   35.6  96.0     4.8      M    M
 19500   -5.3  22.5   220   20   10   6.9   3.8   35.2  95.4     4.4      M    M
 19000   -4.6  23.7   220   20   10   3.7   2.0   34.4  93.9     3.7      M    M
 18500   -4.0  24.8   215   20   10   3.9   2.1   33.4  92.1     2.8      M    M
 18000   -3.5  25.7   215   19   10   3.7   2.1   32.4  90.3     1.9      M    M
 17500   -3.0  26.6   215   18    9   3.7   2.0   31.3  88.4     0.9      M    M
 17000   -2.6  27.3   210   17    9   4.2   2.3   30.3  86.6    -0.1    908  4.6
 16500   -1.6  29.1   210   16    8   8.3   4.5   29.8  85.7    -0.6    866  4.4
 16000   -0.5  31.1   210   16    8   8.2   4.5   29.5  85.1    -1.0    817  4.1
 15500    0.5  32.9   210   16    8   6.0   3.3   29.1  84.4    -1.4    771  3.9
 15000    1.4  34.5   210   15    8   5.9   3.2   28.5  83.2    -2.0    731  3.7
 14500    2.2  36.0   215   15    8   6.2   3.4   27.8  82.1    -2.7    691  3.5
 14000    3.1  37.6   215   14    7   6.5   3.6   27.3  81.2    -3.2    648  3.3
 13500    4.1  39.4   215   13    7   6.5   3.5   26.8  80.2    -3.8    605  3.1
 13000    5.0  41.0   220   12    6   6.2   3.4   26.2  79.2    -4.3    564  2.9
 12500    5.9  42.6   225   10    5   6.4   3.5   25.7  78.2    -4.9    522  2.7
 12000    6.9  44.4   235    9    4   7.2   3.9   25.2  77.4    -5.4    477  2.4
 11500    7.9  46.2   250    7    4   7.3   4.0   24.8  76.7    -5.8    430  2.2
 11000    9.7  49.5   275    6    3   7.8   4.3   24.3  75.8    -6.3    357  1.8
 10500   10.8  51.4   285    6    3   7.3   4.0   24.0  75.2    -6.7    308  1.6
 10250   11.3  52.3   290    7    3   7.5   4.1   23.8  74.9    -6.9    284  1.4
 10000   11.9  53.4   295    6    3   7.7   4.2   23.6  74.6    -7.1    260  1.3
  9750   12.4  54.3   295    6    3   7.6   4.2   23.5  74.3    -7.3    236  1.2
  9500   13.0  55.4   300    6    3   7.0   3.8   23.3  74.0    -7.5    213  1.1
  9250   13.5  56.3   300    6    3   6.8   3.8   23.1  73.6    -7.7    191  1.0
  9000   14.0  57.2   305    6    3   7.2   3.9   22.9  73.2    -8.0    168  0.9
  8750   14.5  58.1   310    6    3   7.0   3.8   22.7  72.8    -8.2    145  0.7
  8500   15.0  59.0   315    6    3   6.9   3.8   22.5  72.4    -8.4    122  0.6
  8250   15.5  59.9   325    5    3   6.8   3.7   22.2  72.0    -8.7    100  0.5
  8000   16.0  60.8   330    5    3   6.9   3.8   22.0  71.6    -9.0     78  0.4
  7750   16.5  61.7   335    5    3   6.6   3.6   21.8  71.2    -9.2     56  0.3
  7500   16.9  62.4   340    5    3   6.1   3.4   21.5  70.8    -9.5     35  0.2
  7250   17.3  63.1   345    5    2   6.1   3.4   21.3  70.3    -9.9     15  0.1
  7000   17.8  64.0   350    4    2   6.1   3.3   21.0  69.8   -10.2      M    M
  6750   18.2  64.8   345    4    2   5.6   3.1   20.7  69.3   -10.5      M    M
  6500   18.5  65.3   350    3    2   3.6   2.0   20.3  68.6   -11.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * * 

           08/16/2025 at 0900 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1200 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...  +112.8    LI...       -0.4        | CAPE...  +332.4    LI...       -1.0
CINH...   -32.0    K Index... +30.3        | CINH...    -0.8    K Index... +29.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.3 -85.5  245  18  9   1.2   0.7 | -65.1 -85.2  240  16  8   1.3   0.7
 45000 -60.4 -76.7  245  30 15   6.5   3.5 | -60.4 -76.7  245  28 14   6.3   3.5
 40000 -50.4 -58.7  240  35 18   7.5   4.1 | -50.7 -59.3  230  32 17   7.4   4.1
 38000 -45.9 -50.6  235  34 17   7.5   4.1 | -46.3 -51.3  230  33 17   7.4   4.0
 36000 -41.5 -42.7  230  33 17   7.3   4.0 | -41.3 -42.3  230  34 17   7.8   4.3
 34000 -37.3 -35.1  220  31 16   7.0   3.8 | -36.5 -33.7  225  29 15   7.9   4.4
 32000 -33.1 -27.6  215  29 15   6.9   3.8 | -31.8 -25.2  225  24 12   7.6   4.2
 30000 -28.4 -19.1  210  31 16   7.9   4.4 | -27.7 -17.9  220  24 12   6.8   3.7
 29000 -25.5 -13.9  210  32 16   8.0   4.4 | -25.7 -14.3  220  24 13   6.8   3.7
 28000 -23.2  -9.8  205  32 16   7.0   3.8 | -23.7 -10.7  215  25 13   6.8   3.7
 27000 -21.1  -6.0  205  28 14   7.1   3.9 | -21.7  -7.1  215  24 13   6.8   3.7
 26000 -19.0  -2.2  205  24 13   7.1   3.9 | -19.7  -3.5  210  24 12   6.8   3.7
 25000 -16.9   1.6  205  21 11   6.8   3.8 | -17.6   0.3  210  24 12   6.9   3.8
 24000 -15.0   5.0  205  19 10   6.7   3.7 | -15.0   5.0  210  22 11   7.2   4.0
 23000 -13.0   8.6  205  18  9   6.8   3.7 | -12.9   8.8  215  20 10   7.3   4.0
 22000 -11.0  12.2  210  16  8   7.0   3.8 | -10.8  12.6  220  19 10   7.2   4.0
 21000  -8.9  16.0  215  16  8   7.1   3.9 |  -8.7  16.3  220  18  9   7.2   4.0
 20000  -6.8  19.8  220  17  9   7.1   3.9 |  -6.5  20.3  225  17  9   7.2   4.0
 19500  -5.8  21.6  220  17  9   6.8   3.7 |  -5.4  22.3  230  17  9   6.8   3.7
 19000  -5.0  23.0  225  17  9   4.7   2.6 |  -4.5  23.9  230  17  9   6.1   3.3
 18500  -4.3  24.3  225  17  9   4.9   2.7 |  -3.7  25.3  230  17  9   6.2   3.4
 18000  -3.7  25.3  230  17  9   4.1   2.2 |  -2.9  26.8  235  16  8   4.3   2.4
 17500  -3.2  26.2  230  16  8   3.8   2.1 |  -2.4  27.7  235  15  8   4.3   2.3
 17000  -2.7  27.1  235  15  8   4.0   2.2 |  -1.8  28.8  235  14  7   4.7   2.6
 16500  -1.9  28.6  235  14  7   6.3   3.5 |  -1.1  30.0  240  12  6   5.6   3.1
 16000  -1.1  30.0  235  13  7   6.1   3.4 |  -0.4  31.3  245  10  5   5.5   3.0
 15500  -0.1  31.8  240  12  6   6.9   3.8 |   0.5  32.9  250   9  5   6.6   3.6
 15000   0.8  33.4  240  11  6   6.9   3.8 |   1.4  34.5  260   8  4   6.5   3.6
 14500   1.8  35.2  245  11  6   6.6   3.6 |   2.3  36.1  270   7  4   6.5   3.6
 14000   2.7  36.9  250  10  5   6.3   3.5 |   3.2  37.8  275   7  4   6.6   3.6
 13500   3.6  38.5  255   9  5   6.6   3.6 |   4.1  39.4  280   7  4   6.7   3.7
 13000   4.6  40.3  260   9  5   7.2   3.9 |   5.1  41.2  285   6  3   7.0   3.8
 12500   5.6  42.1  265   8  4   7.2   4.0 |   6.0  42.8  285   6  3   7.4   4.0
 12000   6.7  44.1  270   8  4   7.3   4.0 |   7.2  45.0  285   6  3   8.4   4.6
 11500   8.3  46.9  275   6  3   7.7   4.2 |   8.4  47.1  285   5  3   8.8   4.8
 11000   9.4  48.9  285   5  3   7.6   4.1 |   9.8  49.6  285   5  3   9.4   5.2
 10500  10.6  51.1  290   5  2   7.9   4.3 |  11.2  52.2  285   5  3   9.3   5.1
 10250  11.1  52.0  290   4  2   7.6   4.2 |  12.6  54.7  285   5  3   9.8   5.4
 10000  11.7  53.1  295   4  2   7.5   4.1 |  13.3  55.9  285   5  3   9.8   5.3
  9750  12.2  54.0  305   4  2   7.4   4.1 |  14.0  57.2  285   5  3   9.7   5.3
  9500  12.8  55.0  310   4  2   6.8   3.7 |  14.7  58.5  285   5  3   9.4   5.1
  9250  13.2  55.8  320   3  2   6.8   3.7 |  15.4  59.7  285   5  3   9.7   5.3
  9000  13.8  56.8  325   3  2   7.2   3.9 |  16.2  61.2  285   5  3  10.0   5.5
  8750  14.3  57.7  335   3  2   7.0   3.9 |  16.9  62.4  285   5  3   9.9   5.4
  8500  14.8  58.6  340   3  2   6.9   3.8 |  17.6  63.7  285   5  3   9.9   5.4
  8250  15.3  59.5  350   3  2   7.2   4.7 |  18.4  65.1  290   5  3  10.0   5.5
  8000  15.8  60.4  355   3  2   7.9   4.3 |  19.1  66.4  285   5  3  10.2   5.6
  7750  16.4  61.5  360   3  2   8.9   4.9 |  19.9  67.8  285   5  3  10.4   5.7
  7500  17.1  62.8  360   4  2   9.7   5.3 |  20.7  69.3  285   5  3  10.7   5.9
  7250  17.8  64.0  360   4  2   9.5   5.2 |  21.5  70.7  290   5  3  10.4   5.7
  7000  18.5  65.3  360   4  2  10.3   5.6 |  22.2  72.0  290   5  3  11.0   6.0
  6750  19.4  66.9  360   3  2  13.7   7.5 |  23.2  73.8  290   5  3  18.0   9.9
  6500  20.6  69.1  360   3  2  19.3  10.6 |  25.3  77.5  290   5  3  42.7  23.4

           08/16/2025 at 1500 MDT          |       08/16/2025 at 1800 MDT        
                                           |
CAPE...  +301.5    LI...       -1.1        | CAPE...   +21.6    LI...       -0.4
CINH...    -5.1    K Index... +31.5        | CINH...    -1.5    K Index... +27.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.0 -85.0  235  13  6   1.9   1.0 | -65.5 -85.9  225  10  5   1.6   0.9
 45000 -59.9 -75.8  245  23 12   6.0   3.3 | -60.2 -76.4  245  19 10   6.6   3.6
 40000 -50.6 -59.1  240  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -50.1 -58.2  245  22 11   7.4   4.0
 38000 -46.4 -51.5  235  31 16   7.1   3.9 | -45.7 -50.3  245  23 12   7.4   4.0
 36000 -41.6 -42.9  230  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -40.8 -41.4  240  24 12   7.1   3.9
 34000 -37.0 -34.6  230  28 15   7.7   4.2 | -36.5 -33.7  235  24 12   7.1   3.9
 32000 -32.3 -26.1  225  24 13   7.9   4.3 | -32.3 -26.1  230  25 13   7.4   4.1
 30000 -27.5 -17.5  235  21 11   8.2   4.5 | -27.5 -17.5  235  19 10   8.0   4.4
 29000 -25.0 -13.0  235  19 10   8.2   4.5 | -25.2 -13.4  235  17  9   8.0   4.4
 28000 -22.7  -8.9  240  18  9   6.4   3.5 | -22.8  -9.0  240  14  7   8.2   4.5
 27000 -20.8  -5.4  240  17  9   6.4   3.5 | -20.3  -4.5  245  14  7   8.2   4.5
 26000 -18.9  -2.0  240  17  9   6.4   3.5 | -17.9  -0.2  255  13  7   8.2   4.5
 25000 -17.0   1.4  240  16  8   6.5   3.5 | -15.4   4.3  260  13  7   7.5   4.1
 24000 -14.5   5.9  235  18  9   6.6   3.6 | -13.2   8.2  255  14  7   5.7   3.1
 23000 -12.6   9.3  230  19 10   6.6   3.6 | -11.6  11.1  255  15  8   5.7   3.1
 22000 -10.7  12.7  230  20 10   6.9   3.8 |  -9.9  14.2  250  15  8   4.8   2.6
 21000  -8.6  16.5  230  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -8.6  16.5  260  14  7   4.9   2.7
 20000  -6.6  20.1  235  17  9   6.8   3.7 |  -7.2  19.0  265  13  7   5.0   2.7
 19500  -5.6  21.9  240  17  9   5.9   3.3 |  -6.5  20.3  270  13  7   5.0   2.7
 19000  -5.0  23.0  245  15  8   3.9   2.1 |  -5.9  21.4  275  12  6   4.8   2.6
 18500  -4.5  23.9  250  14  7   4.1   2.2 |  -5.3  22.5  285  12  6   4.8   2.7
 18000  -4.0  24.8  255  14  7   3.8   2.1 |  -4.6  23.7  290  11  6   6.8   3.7
 17500  -3.5  25.7  260  13  7   4.1   2.2 |  -3.6  25.5  290  11  5   7.0   3.8
 17000  -3.1  26.4  265  12  6   5.4   2.9 |  -2.6  27.3  285  10  5   7.4   4.1
 16500  -2.0  28.4  270  12  6   8.4   4.6 |  -1.4  29.5  280  10  5   8.4   4.6
 16000  -0.9  30.4  270  12  6   8.3   4.6 |  -0.2  31.6  275  10  5   8.3   4.5
 15500   0.3  32.5  270  11  6   8.9   4.9 |   1.1  34.0  275  10  5   9.7   5.3
 15000   1.6  34.9  270  11  6   8.8   4.8 |   2.5  36.5  270  10  5   9.6   5.3
 14500   2.9  37.2  270  11  6   9.1   5.0 |   4.0  39.2  270  10  5   9.6   5.3
 14000   4.2  39.6  270  11  5   9.2   5.0 |   5.4  41.7  265  10  5   9.6   5.3
 13500   5.6  42.1  270  10  5   9.2   5.0 |   6.8  44.2  265  10  5   9.7   5.3
 13000   6.9  44.4  270  10  5   9.2   5.0 |   8.3  46.9  260  10  5   9.7   5.3
 12500   8.3  46.9  265  10  5   9.2   5.1 |   9.7  49.5  260  10  5   9.7   5.3
 12000   9.7  49.5  265   9  5   9.3   5.1 |  11.2  52.2  260  11  5   9.5   5.2
 11500  11.0  51.8  265   9  5   8.8   4.8 |  12.6  54.7  260  11  6   9.8   5.4
 11000  12.4  54.3  260   9  4   9.5   5.2 |  14.0  57.2  260  11  5   9.6   5.3
 10500  14.5  58.1  260   8  4   9.6   5.3 |  15.5  59.9  260  11  6   9.3   5.1
 10250  15.1  59.2  260   8  4   9.1   5.0 |  16.2  61.2  255  11  6   9.5   5.2
 10000  15.8  60.4  260   8  4   9.2   5.0 |  17.6  63.7  255  11  6   9.9   5.4
  9750  16.5  61.7  260   8  4   9.2   5.1 |  18.4  65.1  255  11  6   9.9   5.4
  9500  17.2  63.0  260   7  4   9.7   5.3 |  19.1  66.4  255  11  6   9.4   5.1
  9250  17.9  64.2  260   7  4   9.5   5.2 |  19.8  67.6  255  12  6   9.6   5.3
  9000  18.6  65.5  260   7  4   9.1   5.0 |  20.6  69.1  255  12  6  10.1   5.5
  8750  19.3  66.7  260   7  4   9.2   5.1 |  21.3  70.3  255  12  6   9.9   5.5
  8500  20.0  68.0  260   7  3   9.4   5.2 |  22.0  71.6  255  12  6   9.4   5.2
  8250  20.6  69.1  260   6  3   9.6   5.3 |  22.7  72.9  255  12  6   9.5   5.2
  8000  21.4  70.5  260   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  23.5  74.3  255  12  6  10.1   5.5
  7750  22.1  71.8  260   6  3   9.8   5.4 |  24.2  75.6  255  12  6  10.1   5.5
  7500  22.8  73.0  260   6  3  10.3   5.6 |  25.0  77.0  255  12  6  10.0   5.5
  7250  23.6  74.5  265   6  3  10.6   5.8 |  25.7  78.3  255  12  6  10.2   5.6
  7000  24.3  75.7  265   6  3   9.1   5.0 |  26.4  79.5  255  12  6   9.0   5.0
  6750  25.0  77.0  265   5  3  12.0   6.6 |  27.1  80.8  255  12  6  11.0   6.0
  6500  26.9  80.4  265   5  3  47.9  26.3 |  28.6  83.5  250  10  5  36.8  20.2
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local 
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial 
issuance. 

The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at

                   North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
                   West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
                   Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive 
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of 
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it 
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above 
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain 
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger 
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of 
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158 
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions. 

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the 
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum 
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It 
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures 
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet 
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.  

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
  
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights: 
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the 
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor  

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which 
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough 
     movements.

042613