Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1914 MDT Saturday November 5 2022
This forecast is for Sunday, November 6, 2022:
If the trigger temperature of 62.3 F/16.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 383 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10952 ft MSL (5271 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 66.0 F/19.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8921 ft MSL (3240 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 11/07....... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:32:36 / 17:07:34 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 34 min 58 sec (634 min 58 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:50:05 MST... 38.77 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/06/2022 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 15280 ft MSL (9599 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 23708 ft MSL (18027 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16046 ft MSL (10365 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +13.1
K index......................... -16.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -72.2 -98.0 260 44 22 -0.2 -0.1 72.2 162.0 31.0 M M
45000 -70.6 -95.1 245 38 20 7.7 4.2 52.0 125.7 20.7 M M
40000 -59.2 -74.6 245 41 21 8.1 4.5 47.4 117.3 19.0 M M
38000 -53.3 -63.9 250 43 22 8.7 4.8 46.0 114.7 18.7 M M
36000 -48.1 -54.6 250 44 23 8.7 4.8 45.3 113.6 18.7 M M
34000 -42.9 -45.2 255 46 24 8.6 4.7 44.3 111.8 18.4 M M
32000 -37.7 -35.9 260 47 24 8.6 4.7 43.5 110.3 18.3 M M
30000 -32.3 -26.1 265 50 26 9.2 5.0 42.9 109.1 18.3 M M
29000 -29.6 -21.3 265 51 26 9.2 5.0 42.6 108.7 18.3 M M
28000 -26.8 -16.2 270 53 27 9.2 5.1 42.5 108.5 18.4 M M
27000 -24.2 -11.6 270 54 28 8.6 4.7 42.1 107.8 18.3 M M
26000 -21.6 -6.9 270 54 28 8.5 4.7 41.6 106.9 18.2 M M
25000 -19.1 -2.4 270 54 28 8.5 4.7 41.2 106.2 18.0 M M
24000 -16.0 3.2 270 53 28 7.9 4.3 40.5 104.9 17.7 M M
23000 -13.6 7.5 270 53 27 7.9 4.3 39.8 103.7 17.4 M M
22000 -11.2 11.8 265 52 27 8.0 4.4 39.2 102.6 17.1 M M
21000 -9.0 15.8 265 51 26 7.1 3.9 38.4 101.0 16.5 M M
20000 -6.9 19.6 265 50 26 7.0 3.9 37.4 99.3 15.9 M M
19500 -5.9 21.4 265 49 25 7.0 3.8 36.9 98.5 15.6 M M
19000 -4.8 23.4 265 48 25 6.4 3.5 36.5 97.8 15.3 M M
18500 -4.0 24.8 265 48 25 4.9 2.7 35.7 96.3 14.7 M M
18000 -3.3 26.1 270 47 24 5.0 2.8 34.9 94.9 14.0 M M
17500 -2.6 27.3 270 46 24 4.5 2.5 34.1 93.4 13.4 M M
17000 -1.9 28.6 270 45 23 4.5 2.5 33.2 91.7 12.6 M M
16500 -1.3 29.7 270 45 23 4.2 2.3 32.3 90.2 11.9 M M
16000 -0.7 30.7 270 44 23 3.3 1.8 31.3 88.3 11.0 M M
15500 -0.2 31.6 270 44 23 3.6 2.0 30.2 86.4 10.1 M M
15000 0.1 32.2 270 44 22 1.5 0.8 29.0 84.2 9.1 M M
14500 0.4 32.7 270 43 22 1.6 0.9 27.7 81.8 7.9 M M
14000 0.6 33.1 270 42 22 2.0 1.1 26.4 79.4 6.7 M M
13500 0.9 33.6 270 41 21 2.2 1.2 25.1 77.2 5.5 M M
13000 1.1 34.0 270 39 20 2.3 1.3 23.9 75.0 4.4 M M
12500 1.5 34.7 275 38 19 2.5 1.4 22.7 72.8 3.2 M M
12000 1.8 35.2 280 36 19 3.0 1.6 21.5 70.8 2.1 M M
11500 2.3 36.1 285 35 18 3.9 2.1 20.6 69.0 1.2 M M
11000 2.8 37.0 290 34 18 4.1 2.2 19.6 67.3 0.2 M M
10500 3.5 38.3 290 33 17 4.6 2.5 18.8 65.8 -0.6 359 1.8
10250 3.8 38.8 295 33 17 4.4 2.4 18.4 65.1 -1.0 342 1.7
10000 4.1 39.4 295 33 17 4.9 2.7 18.0 64.3 -1.4 325 1.7
9750 4.5 40.1 300 32 16 5.7 3.1 17.6 63.7 -1.7 305 1.6
9500 4.9 40.8 300 31 16 5.7 3.1 17.3 63.1 -2.0 285 1.4
9250 5.4 41.7 300 30 16 5.7 3.1 17.0 62.6 -2.3 265 1.3
9000 6.1 43.0 300 27 14 4.2 2.3 16.2 61.2 -3.1 228 1.2
8750 6.4 43.5 300 25 13 4.1 2.3 15.8 60.4 -3.5 211 1.1
8500 6.8 44.2 300 23 12 5.0 2.7 15.4 59.7 -3.9 194 1.0
8250 7.1 44.8 300 20 10 3.1 1.7 15.0 59.0 -4.3 175 0.9
8000 7.2 45.0 300 16 8 0.6 0.3 14.3 57.8 -4.9 165 0.8
7750 7.3 45.1 295 13 7 1.6 0.9 13.7 56.6 -5.6 156 0.8
7500 7.4 45.3 285 10 5 0.1 0.0 13.0 55.5 -6.2 146 0.7
7250 7.4 45.3 290 7 4 1.1 0.6 12.3 54.1 -7.0 139 0.7
7000 7.6 45.7 275 5 2 3.4 1.8 11.7 53.1 -7.6 125 0.6
6750 7.8 46.0 245 3 2 2.3 1.2 11.2 52.2 -8.1 112 0.6
6500 8.0 46.4 200 3 2 4.3 2.4 10.7 51.3 -8.6 98 0.5
6250 8.1 46.6 190 3 2 -4.2 -2.3 10.1 50.3 -9.2 86 0.4
6000 7.1 44.8 180 3 2 -23.7 -13.0 8.3 47.0 -11.1 111 0.6
5750 6.0 42.8 170 4 2 12.4 6.8 6.5 43.7 -12.9 137 0.7
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/06/2022 at 0800 MST | 11/06/2022 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +13.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.7
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -29.8 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -30.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -71.4 -96.5 255 43 22 -0.7 -0.4 | -70.5 -94.9 250 46 24 -0.3 -0.2
45000 -70.6 -95.1 240 40 21 7.6 4.2 | -69.5 -93.1 235 43 22 6.3 3.5
40000 -58.6 -73.5 230 44 23 8.8 4.8 | -59.5 -75.1 225 55 28 8.6 4.7
38000 -53.4 -64.1 240 43 22 8.7 4.8 | -54.2 -65.6 230 53 27 8.7 4.8
36000 -48.2 -54.8 245 42 22 8.7 4.8 | -49.0 -56.2 235 51 26 8.7 4.8
34000 -43.1 -45.6 245 44 23 8.3 4.6 | -43.8 -46.8 235 50 26 8.6 4.7
32000 -38.1 -36.6 245 48 25 8.3 4.6 | -38.6 -37.5 235 50 26 8.7 4.7
30000 -32.7 -26.9 250 49 25 9.3 5.1 | -33.2 -27.8 240 49 25 9.1 5.0
29000 -29.9 -21.8 255 49 25 9.3 5.1 | -30.4 -22.7 240 48 25 9.1 5.0
28000 -27.1 -16.8 255 50 26 9.4 5.1 | -27.7 -17.9 245 48 25 9.2 5.0
27000 -24.4 -11.9 260 50 26 9.0 4.9 | -25.0 -13.0 245 47 24 9.0 4.9
26000 -21.7 -7.1 260 50 26 9.0 4.9 | -21.6 -6.9 250 47 24 9.0 4.9
25000 -18.3 -0.9 260 50 26 9.1 5.0 | -18.9 -2.0 250 47 24 9.0 4.9
24000 -15.8 3.6 260 50 26 8.0 4.4 | -16.4 2.5 250 48 25 8.3 4.6
23000 -13.5 7.7 260 50 26 8.0 4.4 | -13.9 7.0 250 49 25 8.3 4.6
22000 -11.1 12.0 260 50 26 8.1 4.4 | -11.4 11.5 250 49 25 8.5 4.7
21000 -8.9 16.0 260 50 26 6.9 3.8 | -9.3 15.3 255 48 25 6.4 3.5
20000 -6.8 19.8 260 49 25 6.8 3.8 | -7.3 18.9 255 47 24 6.4 3.5
19500 -5.8 21.6 260 49 25 6.8 3.7 | -6.4 20.5 255 46 24 6.3 3.5
19000 -4.8 23.4 260 48 25 5.6 3.1 | -5.4 22.3 255 45 23 5.2 2.9
18500 -4.2 24.4 260 47 24 3.9 2.1 | -4.8 23.4 255 44 22 3.9 2.1
18000 -3.6 25.5 260 45 23 3.9 2.1 | -4.3 24.3 255 42 22 3.9 2.1
17500 -3.0 26.6 260 44 23 3.6 2.0 | -3.8 25.2 255 41 21 2.7 1.5
17000 -2.5 27.5 260 43 22 3.6 2.0 | -3.3 26.1 255 40 21 2.8 1.5
16500 -2.0 28.4 260 42 22 3.7 2.0 | -2.9 26.8 255 39 20 3.1 1.7
16000 -1.4 29.5 260 42 22 3.7 2.0 | -2.4 27.7 255 38 20 3.4 1.9
15500 -0.9 30.4 260 42 22 3.8 2.1 | -1.9 28.6 255 38 19 3.5 1.9
15000 -0.4 31.3 265 42 22 2.8 1.5 | -1.4 29.5 260 37 19 4.1 2.3
14500 -0.0 32.0 265 42 22 2.9 1.6 | -0.8 30.6 260 36 19 4.1 2.2
14000 0.4 32.7 265 42 21 2.5 1.4 | -0.2 31.6 260 35 18 4.4 2.4
13500 0.7 33.3 270 41 21 2.5 1.4 | 0.5 32.9 260 35 18 4.5 2.5
13000 1.1 34.0 270 40 20 2.6 1.4 | 1.1 34.0 260 34 18 4.5 2.5
12500 1.4 34.5 270 38 19 2.7 1.5 | 1.8 35.2 265 34 17 4.5 2.5
12000 1.8 35.2 275 36 18 3.4 1.9 | 2.4 36.3 265 33 17 4.2 2.3
11500 2.4 36.3 275 33 17 4.2 2.3 | 3.0 37.4 265 31 16 4.0 2.2
11000 3.1 37.6 280 30 15 4.9 2.7 | 3.6 38.5 265 30 15 3.2 1.7
10500 3.9 39.0 280 27 14 5.5 3.0 | 4.0 39.2 265 27 14 2.9 1.6
10250 4.3 39.7 280 26 13 5.1 2.8 | 4.3 39.7 265 26 13 4.3 2.3
10000 4.7 40.5 285 24 12 5.1 2.8 | 4.6 40.3 265 24 12 4.2 2.3
9750 5.1 41.2 285 22 11 5.3 2.9 | 4.9 40.8 265 22 11 3.7 2.0
9500 5.5 41.9 285 20 10 5.2 2.8 | 5.1 41.2 265 20 10 3.7 2.0
9250 5.9 42.6 285 19 10 5.4 3.0 | 5.4 41.7 265 18 9 4.2 2.3
9000 6.2 43.2 285 17 9 4.3 2.3 | 6.2 43.2 260 13 7 5.4 3.0
8750 6.5 43.7 285 14 7 3.1 1.7 | 6.6 43.9 255 12 6 6.3 3.4
8500 6.7 44.1 280 12 6 4.0 2.2 | 7.0 44.6 250 10 5 2.9 1.6
8250 6.9 44.4 275 9 4 0.8 0.5 | 7.0 44.6 245 8 4 2.4 1.3
8000 7.1 44.8 270 7 3 2.4 1.3 | 7.3 45.1 235 7 4 5.6 3.1
7750 7.2 45.0 260 5 3 2.4 1.3 | 7.7 45.9 225 6 3 4.8 2.6
7500 7.3 45.1 245 4 2 0.9 0.5 | 8.0 46.4 215 6 3 5.3 2.9
7250 7.3 45.1 235 3 2 1.2 0.6 | 8.5 47.3 210 6 3 8.1 4.5
7000 7.5 45.5 215 3 2 3.0 1.7 | 9.2 48.6 210 5 3 10.1 5.5
6750 7.7 45.9 200 4 2 2.4 1.3 | 9.9 49.8 205 5 3 9.5 5.2
6500 7.8 46.0 195 4 2 1.3 0.7 | 10.6 51.1 205 5 3 9.8 5.4
6250 7.9 46.2 195 4 2 2.8 1.5 | 11.4 52.5 210 5 3 9.2 5.0
6000 8.3 46.9 190 4 2 6.5 3.6 | 12.1 53.8 210 5 3 12.3 6.8
5750 8.4 47.1 180 3 2 -7.9 -4.4 | 13.7 56.7 210 5 2 36.4 20.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/06/2022 at 1400 MST | 11/06/2022 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -22.9 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... -17.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.1 -92.4 245 50 26 0.1 0.1 | -68.5 -91.3 245 52 27 0.8 0.4
45000 -68.0 -90.4 235 54 28 4.6 2.5 | -66.7 -88.1 235 56 29 3.5 1.9
40000 -60.6 -77.1 230 54 28 8.0 4.4 | -61.1 -78.0 225 56 29 7.1 3.9
38000 -55.3 -67.5 230 53 27 8.8 4.9 | -55.9 -68.6 225 51 26 8.7 4.8
36000 -50.0 -58.0 230 52 27 8.8 4.9 | -50.6 -59.1 225 47 24 8.7 4.8
34000 -44.6 -48.3 230 51 26 9.1 5.0 | -45.1 -49.2 230 45 23 9.3 5.1
32000 -39.1 -38.4 230 49 25 9.1 5.0 | -39.6 -39.3 230 45 23 9.3 5.1
30000 -33.6 -28.5 235 48 24 9.3 5.1 | -34.0 -29.2 230 45 23 9.2 5.1
29000 -30.8 -23.4 235 47 24 9.3 5.1 | -31.3 -24.3 235 45 23 9.2 5.1
28000 -28.0 -18.4 235 46 24 9.3 5.1 | -28.5 -19.3 235 45 23 9.2 5.1
27000 -25.3 -13.5 240 46 23 9.0 4.9 | -25.8 -14.4 235 45 23 8.9 4.9
26000 -22.6 -8.7 240 45 23 9.0 4.9 | -22.5 -8.5 240 44 23 8.9 4.9
25000 -19.2 -2.6 240 45 23 9.0 5.0 | -19.8 -3.6 240 44 23 8.9 4.9
24000 -16.7 1.9 245 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -17.3 0.9 240 44 23 8.1 4.4
23000 -14.2 6.4 245 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -14.9 5.2 245 44 23 8.1 4.4
22000 -11.8 10.8 250 45 23 8.3 4.6 | -12.4 9.7 245 44 23 8.2 4.5
21000 -9.6 14.7 250 44 23 6.6 3.6 | -10.2 13.6 245 43 22 7.1 3.9
20000 -7.6 18.3 250 43 22 6.6 3.6 | -8.0 17.6 250 43 22 7.1 3.9
19500 -6.6 20.1 250 43 22 6.6 3.6 | -7.0 19.4 250 43 22 7.1 3.9
19000 -5.6 21.9 250 42 22 5.7 3.1 | -5.9 21.4 250 42 22 6.0 3.3
18500 -5.0 23.0 250 42 21 4.3 2.4 | -5.2 22.6 250 42 21 4.4 2.4
18000 -4.3 24.3 250 41 21 4.4 2.4 | -4.6 23.7 250 41 21 4.6 2.5
17500 -3.7 25.3 250 40 21 3.5 1.9 | -4.0 24.8 250 40 21 2.7 1.5
17000 -3.2 26.2 250 39 20 3.5 1.9 | -3.6 25.5 250 39 20 2.7 1.5
16500 -2.7 27.1 250 38 20 3.5 1.9 | -3.2 26.2 250 39 20 2.8 1.5
16000 -2.2 28.0 250 38 19 3.6 2.0 | -2.8 27.0 255 37 19 2.9 1.6
15500 -1.6 29.1 255 37 19 3.7 2.0 | -2.4 27.7 255 36 18 2.9 1.6
15000 -1.1 30.0 255 37 19 3.9 2.1 | -2.0 28.4 255 34 18 2.3 1.3
14500 -0.6 30.9 260 36 19 4.0 2.2 | -1.7 28.9 260 32 17 2.6 1.4
14000 -0.1 31.8 260 36 18 3.0 1.6 | -1.4 29.5 260 30 16 2.8 1.5
13500 0.3 32.5 260 35 18 3.0 1.6 | -1.1 30.0 260 29 15 2.7 1.5
13000 0.6 33.1 260 34 18 2.4 1.3 | -0.6 30.9 260 27 14 5.5 3.0
12500 0.9 33.6 260 32 17 2.1 1.2 | 0.4 32.7 255 24 13 6.4 3.5
12000 1.3 34.3 260 30 16 3.5 1.9 | 1.3 34.3 255 22 11 7.0 3.9
11500 2.0 35.6 260 27 14 4.7 2.6 | 2.5 36.5 250 20 10 7.4 4.0
11000 2.7 36.9 255 25 13 5.8 3.2 | 3.6 38.5 250 18 9 7.9 4.3
10500 3.7 38.7 255 22 11 6.4 3.5 | 4.8 40.6 240 16 8 8.1 4.5
10250 4.2 39.6 250 20 10 5.6 3.1 | 5.4 41.7 240 15 8 7.9 4.4
10000 4.6 40.3 250 19 10 5.8 3.2 | 6.0 42.8 235 14 7 7.5 4.1
9750 5.0 41.0 250 17 9 6.1 3.4 | 6.6 43.9 230 14 7 7.2 4.0
9500 5.5 41.9 245 15 8 6.1 3.3 | 7.1 44.8 225 13 7 7.3 4.0
9250 5.9 42.6 240 13 7 5.9 3.2 | 7.7 45.9 215 12 6 7.9 4.3
9000 6.4 43.5 235 12 6 6.3 3.4 | 8.7 47.7 205 11 6 6.2 3.4
8750 6.9 44.4 235 10 5 6.9 3.8 | 9.2 48.6 200 11 6 6.0 3.3
8500 7.8 46.0 220 8 4 7.6 4.2 | 9.7 49.5 190 11 6 7.8 4.3
8250 8.5 47.3 215 7 4 9.1 5.0 | 10.3 50.5 185 11 5 8.7 4.8
8000 9.2 48.6 210 7 3 9.1 5.0 | 10.9 51.6 180 10 5 7.3 4.0
7750 9.8 49.6 205 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 11.5 52.7 175 10 5 7.7 4.2
7500 10.5 50.9 200 6 3 8.0 4.4 | 12.0 53.6 170 9 5 7.6 4.1
7250 11.1 52.0 200 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 12.6 54.7 165 9 5 8.0 4.4
7000 11.9 53.4 195 5 3 10.6 5.8 | 13.2 55.8 160 8 4 8.5 4.7
6750 12.6 54.7 195 5 3 10.2 5.6 | 13.9 57.0 155 7 4 8.0 4.4
6500 13.4 56.1 190 5 3 10.1 5.5 | 14.5 58.1 150 7 3 9.0 4.9
6250 14.2 57.6 190 5 2 12.3 6.7 | 15.0 59.0 140 6 3 1.7 0.9
6000 15.3 59.5 190 4 2 17.0 9.3 | 14.5 58.1 130 5 3 -13.4 -7.4
5750 16.4 61.5 185 4 2 8.3 4.5 | 14.0 57.2 120 4 2 14.5 7.9
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1909 MDT Saturday November 5 2022
This forecast is for Sunday, November 6, 2022:
If the trigger temperature of 62.3 F/16.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 365 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11295 ft MSL (4960 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 66.0 F/19.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9822 ft MSL (3487 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 11/07....... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:30:01 / 17:05:11 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 35 min 10 sec (635 min 10 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:47:36 MST... 38.80 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/06/2022 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 16074 ft MSL (9739 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 23254 ft MSL (16919 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16422 ft MSL (10087 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +11.4
K index......................... -13.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -71.5 -96.7 260 43 22 -1.7 -0.9 71.0 159.8 30.5 M M
45000 -71.6 -96.9 250 40 21 8.3 4.6 48.1 118.6 18.3 M M
40000 -59.2 -74.6 245 40 21 8.4 4.6 45.0 113.0 17.6 M M
38000 -53.5 -64.3 250 42 21 8.5 4.7 43.3 110.0 17.0 M M
36000 -48.4 -55.1 250 43 22 8.5 4.7 42.5 108.5 16.8 M M
34000 -43.0 -45.4 255 44 23 9.0 4.9 41.7 107.0 16.6 M M
32000 -37.6 -35.7 265 45 23 9.0 4.9 41.2 106.1 16.7 M M
30000 -32.1 -25.8 270 47 24 9.2 5.0 40.6 105.1 16.7 M M
29000 -29.4 -20.9 270 49 25 9.2 5.0 40.4 104.7 16.7 M M
28000 -26.6 -15.9 270 50 26 9.3 5.1 40.3 104.6 16.9 M M
27000 -24.0 -11.2 275 51 26 8.6 4.7 39.9 103.8 16.7 M M
26000 -21.4 -6.5 275 51 26 8.6 4.7 39.4 103.0 16.6 M M
25000 -18.8 -1.8 275 51 26 8.6 4.7 39.1 102.4 16.5 M M
24000 -16.3 2.7 270 51 26 7.8 4.3 38.6 101.4 16.2 M M
23000 -14.0 6.8 270 50 26 7.8 4.3 37.8 100.0 15.8 M M
22000 -11.6 11.1 265 50 26 7.8 4.3 37.1 98.9 15.4 M M
21000 -8.8 16.2 265 49 25 7.4 4.1 36.2 97.1 14.8 M M
20000 -6.6 20.1 265 48 25 7.4 4.1 35.4 95.6 14.2 M M
19500 -5.4 22.3 265 47 24 7.4 4.0 35.0 95.0 14.0 M M
19000 -4.3 24.3 265 46 24 6.5 3.6 34.6 94.4 13.7 M M
18500 -3.5 25.7 265 46 24 5.6 3.1 33.9 93.0 13.2 M M
18000 -2.7 27.1 265 45 23 5.7 3.1 33.2 91.7 12.6 M M
17500 -1.9 28.6 270 44 23 5.0 2.7 32.4 90.4 12.0 M M
17000 -1.1 30.0 270 44 23 5.0 2.7 31.6 89.0 11.3 M M
16500 -0.4 31.3 270 44 22 4.4 2.4 30.9 87.6 10.7 M M
16000 0.1 32.2 270 44 22 3.7 2.0 29.8 85.7 9.8 M M
15500 0.7 33.3 270 44 22 3.7 2.0 28.8 83.9 8.9 M M
15000 1.1 34.0 270 44 22 2.7 1.5 27.7 81.9 8.0 M M
14500 1.5 34.7 270 44 23 2.8 1.5 26.6 79.9 6.9 M M
14000 1.9 35.4 270 44 23 2.5 1.4 25.4 77.8 5.9 M M
13500 2.2 36.0 270 43 22 2.6 1.4 24.3 75.7 4.8 M M
13000 2.6 36.7 275 43 22 2.8 1.5 23.1 73.6 3.7 M M
12500 2.9 37.2 275 43 22 2.9 1.6 22.0 71.6 2.6 M M
12000 3.3 37.9 280 42 22 3.2 1.7 20.9 69.7 1.5 M M
11500 3.7 38.7 285 42 22 3.4 1.9 19.9 67.8 0.4 M M
11000 4.2 39.6 290 42 22 3.2 1.7 18.9 66.0 -0.6 350 1.8
10500 4.6 40.3 295 41 21 3.3 1.8 17.9 64.1 -1.6 321 1.6
10250 4.9 40.8 295 41 21 3.0 1.7 17.3 63.2 -2.1 307 1.6
10000 5.1 41.2 300 41 21 3.3 1.8 16.8 62.3 -2.6 293 1.5
9750 5.4 41.7 300 40 21 3.8 2.1 16.3 61.4 -3.1 277 1.4
9500 5.6 42.1 300 39 20 3.6 2.0 15.9 60.6 -3.5 261 1.3
9250 5.9 42.6 300 38 19 3.9 2.1 15.4 59.7 -4.0 245 1.2
9000 6.2 43.2 305 36 19 3.7 2.0 15.0 58.9 -4.4 228 1.2
8750 6.5 43.7 305 34 17 2.8 1.5 14.5 58.0 -4.9 213 1.1
8500 6.7 44.1 305 31 16 2.6 1.4 13.9 57.0 -5.4 199 1.0
8250 6.9 44.4 305 29 15 2.6 1.4 13.4 56.1 -5.9 185 0.9
8000 7.1 44.8 305 26 14 2.5 1.3 12.8 55.1 -6.5 172 0.9
7750 7.3 45.1 300 23 12 1.7 1.0 12.2 54.0 -7.1 159 0.8
7500 7.4 45.3 300 21 11 2.1 1.1 11.6 52.9 -7.7 148 0.8
7250 7.6 45.7 300 19 10 -0.2 -0.1 11.0 51.8 -8.3 137 0.7
7000 7.4 45.3 295 17 9 -2.7 -1.5 10.1 50.2 -9.2 134 0.7
6750 7.2 45.0 295 15 7 -3.7 -2.0 9.2 48.5 -10.2 133 0.7
6500 6.6 43.9 295 12 6 -14.0 -7.7 7.8 46.1 -11.5 143 0.7
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/06/2022 at 0800 MST | 11/06/2022 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -34.5 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -34.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -71.3 -96.3 255 45 23 -1.8 -1.0 | -70.0 -94.0 250 46 24 -1.4 -0.8
45000 -71.9 -97.4 245 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -69.9 -93.8 240 43 22 6.6 3.6
40000 -59.1 -74.4 235 47 24 8.2 4.5 | -59.9 -75.8 230 55 28 8.7 4.8
38000 -54.2 -65.6 240 45 23 8.3 4.5 | -54.5 -66.1 230 52 27 9.1 5.0
36000 -49.3 -56.7 245 43 22 8.3 4.5 | -49.0 -56.2 235 50 26 9.1 5.0
34000 -44.0 -47.2 245 43 22 9.1 5.0 | -43.7 -46.7 235 48 25 8.7 4.8
32000 -38.5 -37.3 245 45 23 9.1 5.0 | -38.5 -37.3 235 47 24 8.7 4.8
30000 -32.3 -26.1 250 45 23 9.3 5.1 | -32.5 -26.5 235 46 24 9.0 5.0
29000 -29.5 -21.1 255 46 23 9.3 5.1 | -29.8 -21.6 240 46 24 9.0 5.0
28000 -26.7 -16.1 260 46 24 9.2 5.0 | -27.1 -16.8 240 46 24 9.0 5.0
27000 -24.1 -11.4 260 46 24 8.8 4.8 | -24.4 -11.9 245 46 24 8.9 4.9
26000 -21.4 -6.5 260 46 23 8.8 4.8 | -21.7 -7.1 245 46 24 8.9 4.9
25000 -18.8 -1.8 260 45 23 8.8 4.8 | -19.1 -2.4 250 46 24 9.0 4.9
24000 -16.2 2.8 260 46 23 8.5 4.6 | -16.5 2.3 250 46 24 8.5 4.7
23000 -13.7 7.3 260 46 24 8.5 4.6 | -13.9 7.0 250 47 24 8.5 4.6
22000 -11.2 11.8 255 47 24 8.5 4.7 | -11.4 11.5 250 47 24 8.5 4.7
21000 -8.9 16.0 255 46 24 7.2 4.0 | -9.2 15.4 250 47 24 6.9 3.8
20000 -6.7 19.9 255 46 24 7.2 4.0 | -7.1 19.2 255 46 23 6.8 3.8
19500 -5.6 21.9 255 46 24 7.2 3.9 | -6.1 21.0 255 45 23 6.8 3.7
19000 -4.5 23.9 255 45 23 6.8 3.7 | -5.1 22.8 255 45 23 6.4 3.5
18500 -3.7 25.3 260 45 23 4.7 2.6 | -4.3 24.3 255 44 22 4.0 2.2
18000 -3.0 26.6 260 43 22 4.8 2.6 | -3.7 25.3 255 43 22 4.1 2.3
17500 -2.3 27.9 260 42 22 4.3 2.4 | -2.9 26.8 255 42 21 2.8 1.5
17000 -1.7 28.9 260 42 21 4.1 2.3 | -2.5 27.5 255 41 21 2.9 1.6
16500 -0.8 30.6 260 41 21 4.0 2.2 | -2.1 28.2 255 41 21 2.9 1.6
16000 -0.2 31.6 265 41 21 4.0 2.2 | -1.6 29.1 255 40 21 3.0 1.6
15500 0.4 32.7 265 41 21 3.8 2.1 | -1.2 29.8 255 40 20 3.1 1.7
15000 0.9 33.6 265 41 21 3.5 1.9 | -0.7 30.7 260 39 20 3.5 1.9
14500 1.4 34.5 265 42 22 3.6 2.0 | -0.2 31.6 260 39 20 3.6 1.9
14000 1.8 35.2 270 42 22 2.2 1.2 | 0.3 32.5 260 38 20 3.1 1.7
13500 2.2 36.0 270 42 22 2.5 1.4 | 0.7 33.3 265 38 19 3.2 1.7
13000 2.5 36.5 270 41 21 1.9 1.1 | 1.2 34.2 265 37 19 3.4 1.9
12500 2.7 36.9 275 40 20 1.9 1.1 | 1.7 35.1 270 35 18 3.4 1.9
12000 3.0 37.4 275 38 19 1.6 0.9 | 2.1 35.8 270 34 17 3.1 1.7
11500 3.2 37.8 275 35 18 1.5 0.8 | 2.6 36.7 270 31 16 3.0 1.7
11000 3.5 38.3 280 32 16 2.9 1.6 | 3.1 37.6 270 28 14 3.0 1.6
10500 4.0 39.2 280 29 15 3.2 1.8 | 3.4 38.1 270 23 12 2.7 1.5
10250 4.2 39.6 285 28 14 3.6 2.0 | 3.6 38.5 270 20 10 3.2 1.8
10000 4.5 40.1 285 27 14 5.1 2.8 | 3.9 39.0 270 18 9 4.4 2.4
9750 4.9 40.8 285 26 13 5.8 3.2 | 4.2 39.6 265 15 8 4.9 2.7
9500 5.3 41.5 290 25 13 5.5 3.0 | 4.5 40.1 265 13 7 4.3 2.4
9250 5.7 42.3 290 24 12 6.2 3.4 | 4.9 40.8 260 11 5 6.4 3.5
9000 6.2 43.2 290 22 11 5.7 3.1 | 5.5 41.9 260 9 5 8.3 4.5
8750 6.5 43.7 290 20 11 3.9 2.1 | 6.0 42.8 255 8 4 7.3 4.0
8500 6.8 44.2 295 19 10 3.9 2.1 | 6.5 43.7 255 7 4 7.1 3.9
8250 7.0 44.6 295 17 9 3.1 1.7 | 7.1 44.8 250 7 3 8.5 4.6
8000 7.2 45.0 295 16 8 2.1 1.2 | 7.8 46.0 250 6 3 9.7 5.3
7750 7.3 45.1 290 14 7 1.8 1.0 | 8.5 47.3 250 5 3 9.2 5.1
7500 7.4 45.3 290 12 6 1.3 0.7 | 9.2 48.6 245 5 2 9.5 5.2
7250 7.5 45.5 290 10 5 -0.7 -0.4 | 9.9 49.8 245 4 2 10.0 5.5
7000 7.3 45.1 290 9 4 -1.8 -1.0 | 10.7 51.3 240 4 2 10.4 5.7
6750 7.2 45.0 290 7 4 -2.6 -1.4 | 11.4 52.5 235 3 2 9.8 5.4
6500 6.9 44.4 295 5 2 -3.0 -1.7 | 12.2 54.0 230 3 2 11.5 6.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/06/2022 at 1400 MST | 11/06/2022 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +10.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -27.2 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... -23.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.7 -93.5 245 49 25 0.3 0.2 | -68.5 -91.3 245 51 26 1.2 0.7
45000 -67.9 -90.2 235 51 26 5.0 2.7 | -66.0 -86.8 240 56 29 3.3 1.8
40000 -60.4 -76.7 225 55 28 7.7 4.2 | -61.1 -78.0 225 54 28 6.4 3.5
38000 -55.2 -67.4 225 53 27 8.7 4.8 | -55.9 -68.6 225 52 27 8.7 4.8
36000 -50.0 -58.0 235 51 26 8.7 4.8 | -50.6 -59.1 230 51 26 8.7 4.8
34000 -44.6 -48.3 235 50 26 9.2 5.0 | -45.2 -49.4 230 48 25 9.2 5.1
32000 -39.1 -38.4 235 49 25 9.2 5.0 | -39.0 -38.2 235 46 23 9.2 5.1
30000 -32.9 -27.2 235 48 25 9.2 5.1 | -33.5 -28.3 235 45 23 9.2 5.0
29000 -30.1 -22.2 235 48 24 9.2 5.1 | -30.8 -23.4 240 44 23 9.2 5.0
28000 -27.4 -17.3 235 47 24 9.2 5.1 | -28.0 -18.4 240 44 23 9.2 5.0
27000 -24.7 -12.5 240 46 24 8.9 4.9 | -25.4 -13.7 240 44 23 8.7 4.8
26000 -22.0 -7.6 240 46 24 8.9 4.9 | -22.8 -9.0 240 44 23 8.7 4.8
25000 -19.3 -2.7 240 45 23 8.9 4.9 | -20.2 -4.4 240 44 23 8.7 4.8
24000 -16.8 1.8 245 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -17.7 0.1 245 44 23 7.9 4.3
23000 -14.4 6.1 245 45 23 8.1 4.5 | -15.3 4.5 245 43 22 7.9 4.3
22000 -11.9 10.6 250 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -13.0 8.6 245 43 22 7.9 4.3
21000 -9.8 14.4 250 44 23 6.5 3.6 | -10.8 12.6 245 42 21 6.7 3.7
20000 -7.8 18.0 250 44 22 6.5 3.6 | -8.8 16.2 245 40 21 6.7 3.7
19500 -6.9 19.6 250 43 22 6.5 3.5 | -7.8 18.0 245 40 21 6.7 3.7
19000 -5.9 21.4 250 43 22 6.2 3.4 | -6.8 19.8 245 39 20 6.3 3.5
18500 -5.2 22.6 250 42 22 3.7 2.0 | -6.0 21.2 245 39 20 4.4 2.4
18000 -4.6 23.7 250 41 21 3.8 2.1 | -5.0 23.0 245 38 19 4.5 2.4
17500 -3.9 25.0 250 40 21 2.8 1.5 | -4.4 24.1 245 37 19 4.2 2.3
17000 -3.4 25.9 250 39 20 2.9 1.6 | -3.8 25.2 245 35 18 4.2 2.3
16500 -3.0 26.6 250 38 20 3.1 1.7 | -3.2 26.2 245 34 18 4.0 2.2
16000 -2.5 27.5 250 37 19 3.2 1.8 | -2.6 27.3 250 33 17 3.9 2.2
15500 -2.1 28.2 255 36 19 3.6 2.0 | -2.0 28.4 250 31 16 4.0 2.2
15000 -1.4 29.5 255 35 18 4.8 2.6 | -1.5 29.3 250 29 15 4.1 2.3
14500 -0.8 30.6 255 34 17 4.8 2.7 | -0.9 30.4 255 28 14 4.3 2.3
14000 -0.1 31.8 260 33 17 4.8 2.7 | -0.3 31.5 255 26 14 4.1 2.3
13500 0.6 33.1 260 32 16 5.0 2.8 | 0.3 32.5 260 25 13 4.2 2.3
13000 1.2 34.2 260 30 16 3.4 1.8 | 0.9 33.6 260 24 12 4.8 2.6
12500 1.7 35.1 260 28 15 3.3 1.8 | 1.6 34.9 260 22 12 4.6 2.6
12000 2.2 36.0 260 26 13 3.1 1.7 | 2.3 36.1 260 21 11 6.0 3.3
11500 2.6 36.7 255 23 12 3.0 1.6 | 3.3 37.9 255 20 10 6.1 3.4
11000 3.2 37.8 255 20 11 5.6 3.1 | 4.2 39.6 255 18 9 6.9 3.8
10500 4.1 39.4 255 18 9 5.6 3.1 | 5.3 41.5 245 17 9 6.7 3.7
10250 4.5 40.1 255 17 9 7.1 3.9 | 5.8 42.4 245 16 8 6.9 3.8
10000 5.2 41.4 255 16 8 8.9 4.9 | 6.3 43.3 240 14 7 7.4 4.0
9750 5.8 42.4 255 16 8 8.8 4.9 | 6.9 44.4 235 13 7 7.7 4.2
9500 6.5 43.7 255 15 8 8.4 4.6 | 7.4 45.3 230 11 6 7.3 4.0
9250 7.1 44.8 255 15 8 10.1 5.5 | 8.0 46.4 220 10 5 8.6 4.7
9000 7.9 46.2 255 15 8 10.3 5.7 | 8.7 47.7 215 10 5 9.1 5.0
8750 8.6 47.5 260 15 7 8.7 4.7 | 9.3 48.7 215 9 5 8.2 4.5
8500 9.3 48.7 260 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 9.9 49.8 210 9 4 8.1 4.5
8250 9.9 49.8 260 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 10.5 50.9 210 8 4 9.1 5.0
8000 10.7 51.3 260 14 7 10.0 5.5 | 11.3 52.3 210 8 4 9.8 5.4
7750 11.4 52.5 260 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 12.0 53.6 210 7 4 8.9 4.9
7500 12.1 53.8 260 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 12.6 54.7 210 7 3 8.5 4.7
7250 12.9 55.2 260 14 7 10.1 5.6 | 13.3 55.9 215 6 3 8.4 4.6
7000 13.6 56.5 265 14 7 10.7 5.9 | 13.9 57.0 215 5 3 7.4 4.1
6750 14.4 57.9 265 14 7 9.4 5.2 | 14.4 57.9 220 4 2 10.3 5.7
6500 15.1 59.2 265 13 7 11.6 6.4 | 15.0 59.0 220 4 2 -2.5 -1.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, at approximately 730 AM and 730 PM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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