Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0722 MDT Tuesday October 14 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, October 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 67.6 F/19.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 344 ft/min (1.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11776 ft MSL (5451 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 70.0 F/21.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1300 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9176 ft MSL (2851 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 10/15.... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:09:36 / 18:30:07 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 20 min 31 sec (680 min 31 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:49:52 MDT... 46.50 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14847 ft MSL (8522 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10679 ft MSL (4354 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11109 ft MSL (4784 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.3
K index......................... +22.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.6 -91.5 215 52 27 4.1 2.2 73.1 163.5 30.7 M M
45000 -61.6 -78.9 215 60 31 6.0 3.3 61.4 142.5 25.5 M M
40000 -52.3 -62.1 220 66 34 7.8 4.3 53.6 128.4 21.9 M M
38000 -47.6 -53.7 215 66 34 7.9 4.3 51.7 125.0 21.2 M M
36000 -42.3 -44.1 215 66 34 7.8 4.3 50.2 122.4 20.8 M M
34000 -37.7 -35.9 215 67 34 7.7 4.2 48.3 118.9 19.9 M M
32000 -33.1 -27.6 215 68 35 7.7 4.2 46.9 116.3 19.3 M M
30000 -28.3 -18.9 215 67 34 8.0 4.4 45.3 113.6 18.6 M M
29000 -25.9 -14.6 215 66 34 8.0 4.4 44.7 112.4 18.3 M M
28000 -23.5 -10.3 215 66 34 7.4 4.1 44.2 111.5 18.1 M M
27000 -21.4 -6.5 215 66 34 6.8 3.7 42.9 109.3 17.4 M M
26000 -19.4 -2.9 215 65 34 6.8 3.7 41.8 107.3 16.7 M M
25000 -17.3 0.9 215 65 34 6.9 3.8 40.8 105.5 16.0 M M
24000 -15.5 4.1 215 63 32 5.9 3.2 39.5 103.0 15.1 M M
23000 -13.7 7.3 215 60 31 5.9 3.2 38.0 100.4 14.1 M M
22000 -12.0 10.4 215 57 29 6.1 3.3 36.7 98.1 13.1 M M
21000 -10.6 12.9 215 54 28 4.2 2.3 34.9 94.8 11.7 M M
20000 -9.1 15.6 215 50 26 4.3 2.4 32.5 90.4 9.7 M M
19500 -8.5 16.7 215 48 25 4.2 2.3 31.6 88.8 8.9 M M
19000 -7.7 18.1 215 47 24 6.7 3.7 30.9 87.5 8.3 M M
18500 -6.8 19.8 215 46 24 6.5 3.6 30.3 86.5 7.8 M M
18000 -5.8 21.6 215 46 23 6.6 3.6 29.8 85.6 7.3 M M
17500 -4.9 23.2 215 45 23 6.7 3.6 29.2 84.6 6.8 M M
17000 -4.0 24.8 215 45 23 6.7 3.7 28.7 83.6 6.3 M M
16500 -3.0 26.6 215 45 23 6.7 3.7 28.2 82.7 5.8 M M
16000 -2.1 28.2 215 45 23 6.8 3.7 27.7 81.8 5.3 M M
15500 -1.1 30.0 215 44 23 6.6 3.6 27.2 80.9 4.9 M M
15000 -0.2 31.6 215 43 22 6.5 3.6 26.7 80.0 4.3 M M
14500 0.7 33.3 215 42 22 6.1 3.3 26.1 79.1 3.8 M M
14000 1.5 34.7 215 40 20 5.5 3.0 25.4 77.8 3.1 M M
13500 2.2 36.0 215 37 19 5.4 3.0 24.8 76.6 2.4 M M
13000 2.9 37.2 215 34 18 5.2 2.8 24.0 75.2 1.6 M M
12500 3.6 38.5 215 31 16 5.3 2.9 23.3 73.9 0.9 M M
12000 4.4 39.9 215 28 15 6.7 3.7 22.7 72.9 0.2 M M
11500 5.3 41.5 210 26 13 7.5 4.1 22.2 71.9 -0.3 420 2.1
11000 6.4 43.5 210 24 12 7.0 3.9 21.9 71.4 -0.7 372 1.9
10500 7.5 45.5 205 22 11 7.2 4.0 21.5 70.7 -1.1 327 1.7
10250 7.9 46.2 205 21 11 5.9 3.3 21.3 70.3 -1.3 305 1.5
10000 8.3 46.9 205 21 11 5.7 3.1 20.9 69.7 -1.7 286 1.5
9750 8.8 47.8 200 20 10 6.6 3.6 20.7 69.2 -2.0 265 1.3
9500 9.2 48.6 200 19 10 6.0 3.3 20.4 68.7 -2.3 244 1.2
9250 9.5 49.1 195 18 9 2.4 1.3 20.0 68.0 -2.7 228 1.2
9000 9.5 49.1 190 17 9 1.3 0.7 19.3 66.8 -3.4 220 1.1
8750 9.7 49.5 185 16 8 2.9 1.6 18.8 65.8 -4.0 208 1.1
8500 9.9 49.8 180 15 8 2.9 1.6 18.2 64.8 -4.6 195 1.0
8250 10.1 50.2 175 14 7 3.5 1.9 17.7 63.9 -5.1 181 0.9
8000 10.3 50.5 165 14 7 3.5 1.9 17.3 63.1 -5.6 166 0.8
7750 10.6 51.1 160 15 8 3.2 1.7 16.8 62.2 -6.1 152 0.8
7500 10.8 51.4 155 15 8 2.8 1.5 16.3 61.3 -6.6 138 0.7
7250 11.0 51.8 150 13 7 2.7 1.5 15.7 60.3 -7.1 125 0.6
7000 11.2 52.2 150 11 6 2.8 1.5 15.2 59.3 -7.7 111 0.6
6750 11.4 52.5 145 9 5 2.5 1.4 14.7 58.4 -8.2 97 0.5
6500 11.6 52.9 145 6 3 1.1 0.6 14.1 57.3 -8.8 85 0.4
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +9.2 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +132.7 LI... -0.7
CINH... -15.6 K Index... +22.0 | CINH... -1.6 K Index... +23.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.5 -91.3 220 52 27 4.2 2.3 | -68.3 -90.9 215 55 28 4.0 2.2
45000 -61.5 -78.7 220 61 31 5.8 3.2 | -61.5 -78.7 215 66 34 5.7 3.2
40000 -52.4 -62.3 220 66 34 7.4 4.1 | -52.2 -62.0 215 65 33 7.5 4.1
38000 -47.4 -53.3 220 66 34 7.4 4.1 | -47.7 -53.9 220 65 33 7.5 4.1
36000 -42.9 -45.2 225 67 34 7.5 4.1 | -43.2 -45.8 220 65 33 7.5 4.1
34000 -38.4 -37.1 220 67 34 7.5 4.1 | -38.8 -37.8 220 64 33 7.4 4.1
32000 -33.9 -29.0 215 67 34 7.5 4.1 | -34.3 -29.7 220 64 33 7.4 4.1
30000 -29.1 -20.4 210 65 33 8.0 4.4 | -29.3 -20.7 215 63 32 7.5 4.1
29000 -26.7 -16.1 210 64 33 8.0 4.4 | -27.1 -16.8 210 63 32 7.5 4.1
28000 -24.3 -11.7 210 63 33 7.6 4.1 | -24.9 -12.8 210 62 32 7.5 4.1
27000 -22.2 -8.0 210 63 32 7.2 3.9 | -22.6 -8.7 210 61 32 7.6 4.1
26000 -20.0 -4.0 210 63 32 7.2 3.9 | -20.4 -4.7 210 60 31 7.6 4.1
25000 -17.9 -0.2 210 62 32 7.3 4.0 | -18.1 -0.6 210 60 31 7.5 4.1
24000 -15.9 3.4 210 60 31 6.3 3.5 | -16.0 3.2 210 57 29 6.8 3.7
23000 -14.0 6.8 215 58 30 6.3 3.5 | -14.0 6.8 215 55 28 6.8 3.7
22000 -12.1 10.2 215 56 29 6.4 3.5 | -12.0 10.4 215 52 27 6.7 3.7
21000 -10.2 13.6 215 51 26 5.2 2.8 | -10.1 13.8 215 51 26 6.3 3.4
20000 -8.7 16.3 210 46 24 5.3 2.9 | -8.2 17.2 215 49 25 6.3 3.4
19500 -8.0 17.6 210 44 22 5.5 3.0 | -7.3 18.9 215 49 25 6.3 3.5
19000 -7.1 19.2 210 43 22 6.6 3.6 | -6.4 20.5 215 48 25 5.8 3.2
18500 -6.1 21.0 210 44 23 6.6 3.6 | -5.6 21.9 215 48 25 5.8 3.2
18000 -5.1 22.8 210 45 23 5.9 3.3 | -4.8 23.4 215 47 24 5.9 3.2
17500 -4.4 24.1 210 45 23 5.6 3.1 | -4.0 24.8 210 47 24 5.7 3.1
17000 -3.6 25.5 215 45 23 5.7 3.1 | -2.9 26.8 210 46 24 5.8 3.2
16500 -2.8 27.0 215 44 23 5.9 3.3 | -2.1 28.2 210 46 24 5.5 3.0
16000 -1.9 28.6 215 43 22 5.9 3.2 | -1.3 29.7 210 45 23 5.5 3.0
15500 -1.1 30.0 215 43 22 6.3 3.4 | -0.4 31.3 210 45 23 5.7 3.1
15000 -0.1 31.8 215 42 21 6.3 3.5 | 0.4 32.7 210 44 23 5.7 3.1
14500 0.8 33.4 210 40 21 6.3 3.5 | 1.2 34.2 210 43 22 6.1 3.4
14000 1.6 34.9 210 39 20 6.3 3.5 | 2.1 35.8 205 41 21 6.3 3.5
13500 2.5 36.5 210 37 19 6.4 3.5 | 2.9 37.2 205 40 20 6.5 3.6
13000 3.4 38.1 205 35 18 6.5 3.6 | 3.8 38.8 205 38 19 6.8 3.7
12500 4.3 39.7 205 33 17 6.5 3.6 | 4.7 40.5 205 35 18 6.7 3.7
12000 5.1 41.2 205 31 16 5.9 3.2 | 5.5 41.9 205 33 17 6.2 3.4
11500 5.9 42.6 205 28 14 5.8 3.2 | 6.3 43.3 200 30 15 6.1 3.4
11000 6.8 44.2 205 26 13 6.9 3.8 | 7.0 44.6 200 27 14 5.2 2.9
10500 7.8 46.0 205 23 12 6.8 3.8 | 7.7 45.9 200 24 12 5.1 2.8
10250 8.2 46.8 205 22 11 6.4 3.5 | 8.1 46.6 195 23 12 4.4 2.4
10000 8.7 47.7 205 20 11 5.5 3.0 | 8.3 46.9 195 21 11 4.2 2.3
9750 9.0 48.2 200 19 10 5.4 3.0 | 8.6 47.5 190 20 10 4.2 2.3
9500 9.4 48.9 200 18 9 4.5 2.5 | 8.9 48.0 190 18 9 4.5 2.5
9250 9.5 49.1 195 16 8 1.3 0.7 | 9.3 48.7 180 16 8 5.3 2.9
9000 9.5 49.1 190 15 8 1.1 0.6 | 9.6 49.3 175 15 8 5.3 2.9
8750 9.7 49.5 185 14 7 2.3 1.3 | 10.0 50.0 170 14 7 4.5 2.5
8500 9.8 49.6 180 13 7 2.9 1.6 | 10.3 50.5 160 13 7 5.8 3.2
8250 10.0 50.0 170 12 6 3.8 2.1 | 10.8 51.4 160 13 7 7.4 4.1
8000 10.3 50.5 160 13 7 3.9 2.1 | 11.3 52.3 155 13 7 7.5 4.1
7750 10.6 51.1 155 13 7 3.5 1.9 | 11.9 53.4 155 13 7 7.7 4.2
7500 10.8 51.4 145 13 7 5.0 2.7 | 12.5 54.5 155 13 7 9.0 5.0
7250 11.3 52.3 145 13 6 6.6 3.6 | 13.2 55.8 155 13 7 10.1 5.5
7000 11.7 53.1 140 12 6 5.8 3.2 | 14.0 57.2 155 13 6 9.4 5.1
6750 12.2 54.0 135 11 6 7.9 4.3 | 14.7 58.5 155 12 6 11.1 6.1
6500 12.9 55.2 135 10 5 12.3 6.7 | 15.7 60.3 155 12 6 16.2 8.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +375.0 LI... -2.1 | CAPE... +290.9 LI... -2.2
CINH... -1.5 K Index... +23.6 | CINH... -27.0 K Index... +25.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.8 -91.8 220 57 29 3.7 2.0 | -69.0 -92.2 225 53 27 3.8 2.1
45000 -62.2 -80.0 215 66 34 6.1 3.3 | -62.2 -80.0 215 66 34 6.1 3.4
40000 -52.8 -63.0 210 66 34 8.0 4.4 | -52.8 -63.0 210 71 36 7.7 4.3
38000 -47.4 -53.3 215 64 33 8.0 4.4 | -47.5 -53.5 210 65 34 7.8 4.3
36000 -42.5 -44.5 215 63 32 8.0 4.4 | -42.8 -45.0 205 60 31 8.0 4.4
34000 -37.8 -36.0 220 62 32 7.8 4.3 | -37.8 -36.0 210 58 30 8.5 4.7
32000 -33.1 -27.6 220 61 31 7.9 4.3 | -32.7 -26.9 215 57 29 8.6 4.7
30000 -28.7 -19.7 215 61 32 7.4 4.0 | -28.2 -18.8 215 57 30 7.2 4.0
29000 -26.5 -15.7 215 62 32 7.4 4.0 | -26.1 -15.0 215 58 30 7.2 4.0
28000 -24.3 -11.7 215 62 32 6.9 3.8 | -23.9 -11.0 215 58 30 6.5 3.6
27000 -22.3 -8.1 215 61 31 6.6 3.6 | -22.1 -7.8 220 57 30 6.0 3.3
26000 -20.3 -4.5 215 60 31 6.6 3.6 | -20.4 -4.7 220 57 29 6.0 3.3
25000 -18.4 -1.1 215 59 31 6.6 3.6 | -18.6 -1.5 220 57 29 5.9 3.2
24000 -16.3 2.7 215 58 30 6.8 3.8 | -16.5 2.3 220 56 29 7.1 3.9
23000 -14.2 6.4 220 56 29 6.9 3.8 | -14.4 6.1 220 54 28 7.1 3.9
22000 -12.2 10.0 220 55 28 6.9 3.8 | -12.2 10.0 220 53 27 7.2 3.9
21000 -10.3 13.5 220 53 27 6.0 3.3 | -10.0 14.0 220 51 26 5.9 3.2
20000 -8.1 17.4 220 50 26 6.0 3.3 | -8.2 17.2 220 49 25 5.9 3.2
19500 -7.3 18.9 220 49 25 6.0 3.3 | -7.4 18.7 220 47 24 5.9 3.2
19000 -6.4 20.5 220 48 25 6.1 3.3 | -6.6 20.1 215 47 24 5.4 2.9
18500 -5.6 21.9 220 48 25 6.2 3.4 | -5.8 21.6 215 46 24 5.5 3.0
18000 -4.7 23.5 215 48 25 5.8 3.2 | -5.1 22.8 215 45 23 5.7 3.1
17500 -3.9 25.0 215 47 24 5.6 3.1 | -4.2 24.4 215 44 23 5.8 3.2
17000 -3.1 26.4 215 47 24 5.7 3.1 | -3.4 25.9 215 44 23 5.9 3.2
16500 -2.3 27.9 215 46 24 5.7 3.1 | -2.5 27.5 215 43 22 6.1 3.3
16000 -1.4 29.5 210 46 24 5.7 3.1 | -1.7 28.9 210 42 22 6.1 3.3
15500 -0.6 30.9 210 45 23 6.1 3.4 | -0.8 30.6 210 41 21 6.6 3.6
15000 0.3 32.5 210 45 23 6.2 3.4 | 0.1 32.2 210 39 20 6.7 3.7
14500 1.1 34.0 210 44 23 6.5 3.6 | 1.1 34.0 205 38 20 6.5 3.6
14000 2.1 35.8 205 42 22 6.8 3.7 | 1.9 35.4 205 36 18 6.4 3.5
13500 3.0 37.4 205 41 21 6.6 3.6 | 2.8 37.0 205 33 17 6.6 3.6
13000 3.7 38.7 205 37 19 6.0 3.3 | 3.7 38.7 200 31 16 6.9 3.8
12500 4.5 40.1 200 34 17 6.3 3.5 | 4.6 40.3 200 28 14 7.0 3.9
12000 5.4 41.7 200 30 16 7.3 4.0 | 5.6 42.1 200 26 13 7.5 4.1
11500 6.4 43.5 195 28 14 7.7 4.2 | 6.7 44.1 200 25 13 7.5 4.1
11000 7.3 45.1 195 25 13 5.5 3.0 | 7.6 45.7 200 24 12 5.9 3.3
10500 8.1 46.6 190 23 12 5.7 3.1 | 8.4 47.1 200 23 12 6.0 3.3
10250 8.5 47.3 190 22 12 5.1 2.8 | 8.9 48.0 200 22 11 6.3 3.5
10000 8.8 47.8 185 22 11 5.1 2.8 | 9.4 48.9 195 22 11 7.3 4.0
9750 9.2 48.6 185 21 11 5.3 2.9 | 9.9 49.8 195 21 11 7.6 4.2
9500 9.6 49.3 180 20 10 5.6 3.1 | 10.4 50.7 195 21 11 7.8 4.3
9250 10.0 50.0 180 19 10 7.3 4.0 | 11.0 51.8 190 21 11 9.3 5.1
9000 10.6 51.1 175 18 10 7.9 4.3 | 11.7 53.1 190 20 10 8.6 4.7
8750 11.1 52.0 175 18 9 7.4 4.0 | 12.3 54.1 185 20 10 7.2 4.0
8500 11.7 53.1 170 18 9 8.0 4.4 | 12.8 55.0 185 20 10 7.5 4.1
8250 12.3 54.1 165 17 9 8.8 4.8 | 13.4 56.1 180 20 10 7.5 4.1
8000 13.0 55.4 165 17 9 9.0 4.9 | 13.9 57.0 175 20 10 7.2 3.9
7750 13.6 56.5 160 16 8 9.0 4.9 | 14.4 57.9 170 20 10 6.2 3.4
7500 14.3 57.7 160 16 8 9.1 5.0 | 14.8 58.6 160 20 11 5.3 2.9
7250 15.0 59.0 155 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 15.1 59.2 155 20 10 4.9 2.7
7000 15.6 60.1 155 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 15.5 59.9 150 20 10 5.0 2.7
6750 16.3 61.3 150 14 7 9.1 5.0 | 15.8 60.4 140 20 10 5.2 2.9
6500 17.0 62.6 150 13 7 10.2 5.6 | 16.2 61.2 140 18 9 5.8 3.2
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0721 MDT Tuesday October 14 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, October 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 68.3 F/20.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 391 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11997 ft MSL (6322 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 73.0 F/23.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9107 ft MSL (3432 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 10/15.... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:12:08 / 18:32:34 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 20 min 25 sec (680 min 25 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:52:21 MDT... 46.47 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14565 ft MSL (8890 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10514 ft MSL (4839 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11244 ft MSL (5569 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.4
K index......................... +21.6
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.1 -90.6 220 54 28 4.2 2.3 76.3 169.3 31.4 M M
45000 -61.2 -78.2 220 64 33 5.5 3.0 64.5 148.0 26.2 M M
40000 -52.5 -62.5 220 71 37 7.7 4.2 55.6 132.1 22.0 M M
38000 -47.4 -53.3 215 71 36 7.7 4.2 53.3 128.0 21.1 M M
36000 -42.7 -44.9 210 71 36 7.7 4.2 51.9 125.5 20.7 M M
34000 -37.8 -36.0 215 69 36 8.4 4.6 50.5 122.9 20.2 M M
32000 -32.8 -27.0 215 68 35 8.4 4.6 49.6 121.2 20.0 M M
30000 -28.0 -18.4 215 68 35 7.9 4.3 48.0 118.5 19.3 M M
29000 -25.6 -14.1 215 69 35 7.9 4.3 47.4 117.3 19.0 M M
28000 -23.2 -9.8 215 69 36 7.4 4.1 46.8 116.3 18.8 M M
27000 -21.3 -6.3 215 69 35 6.2 3.4 45.4 113.7 17.9 M M
26000 -19.5 -3.1 215 68 35 6.2 3.4 44.0 111.3 17.0 M M
25000 -17.6 0.3 220 68 35 6.2 3.4 42.8 109.0 16.2 M M
24000 -16.0 3.2 220 65 34 5.0 2.7 41.2 106.1 15.1 M M
23000 -14.2 6.4 220 60 31 5.0 2.7 39.0 102.1 13.4 M M
22000 -12.7 9.1 220 56 29 5.0 2.7 37.4 99.3 12.2 M M
21000 -11.3 11.7 215 53 27 4.9 2.7 35.6 96.0 10.8 M M
20000 -9.8 14.4 215 51 26 4.9 2.7 33.9 93.0 9.4 M M
19500 -9.1 15.6 215 50 26 4.8 2.6 33.1 91.5 8.7 M M
19000 -8.3 17.1 215 49 25 6.5 3.6 32.4 90.3 8.1 M M
18500 -7.3 18.9 215 49 25 6.6 3.6 31.8 89.3 7.7 M M
18000 -6.4 20.5 215 49 25 6.6 3.6 31.3 88.3 7.3 M M
17500 -5.4 22.3 210 49 25 6.8 3.7 30.8 87.4 6.8 M M
17000 -4.4 24.1 210 49 25 6.9 3.8 30.3 86.5 6.3 M M
16500 -3.5 25.7 210 48 25 6.6 3.6 29.8 85.6 5.8 M M
16000 -2.6 27.3 210 47 24 6.6 3.6 29.2 84.6 5.3 M M
15500 -1.6 29.1 210 46 24 6.4 3.5 28.7 83.7 4.8 M M
15000 -0.8 30.6 210 45 23 6.2 3.4 28.1 82.6 4.2 M M
14500 0.1 32.2 210 43 22 6.1 3.3 27.5 81.6 3.7 M M
14000 0.8 33.4 210 41 21 5.5 3.0 26.9 80.4 3.0 M M
13500 1.6 34.9 210 38 20 5.6 3.1 26.2 79.1 2.3 M M
13000 2.3 36.1 210 36 18 5.4 2.9 25.5 77.9 1.5 M M
12500 3.0 37.4 210 33 17 5.4 3.0 24.8 76.6 0.8 M M
12000 3.8 38.8 210 30 16 6.2 3.4 24.2 75.5 0.1 M M
11500 4.6 40.3 210 28 14 6.2 3.4 23.6 74.5 -0.5 457 2.3
11000 5.5 41.9 210 25 13 6.8 3.7 23.1 73.5 -1.1 415 2.1
10500 6.5 43.7 205 23 12 6.4 3.5 22.6 72.7 -1.6 371 1.9
10250 6.9 44.4 205 22 11 6.3 3.5 22.3 72.2 -1.9 351 1.8
10000 7.4 45.3 205 21 11 7.0 3.9 22.1 71.8 -2.1 329 1.7
9750 7.9 46.2 205 20 11 6.8 3.7 21.9 71.4 -2.4 307 1.6
9500 8.4 47.1 200 20 10 7.5 4.1 21.7 71.0 -2.6 284 1.4
9250 8.9 48.0 200 19 10 7.6 4.1 21.5 70.7 -2.7 260 1.3
9000 9.4 48.9 200 18 9 6.6 3.6 21.3 70.3 -3.0 238 1.2
8750 9.9 49.8 195 17 9 6.7 3.7 21.0 69.9 -3.3 216 1.1
8500 10.7 51.3 190 15 8 2.1 1.2 20.4 68.8 -3.9 178 0.9
8250 10.7 51.3 185 14 7 2.0 1.1 19.7 67.5 -4.6 169 0.9
8000 11.0 51.8 180 12 6 4.5 2.5 19.3 66.8 -5.1 154 0.8
7750 11.3 52.3 175 10 5 4.3 2.3 18.9 66.0 -5.5 138 0.7
7500 11.7 53.1 165 8 4 5.3 2.9 18.5 65.3 -5.9 119 0.6
7250 12.1 53.8 155 6 3 3.6 2.0 18.1 64.7 -6.3 100 0.5
7000 12.3 54.1 135 5 3 2.0 1.1 17.6 63.7 -6.8 87 0.4
6750 12.5 54.5 115 5 3 3.0 1.6 17.0 62.7 -7.3 74 0.4
6500 12.7 54.9 100 5 2 3.4 1.9 16.6 61.8 -7.8 58 0.3
6250 13.0 55.4 085 5 2 3.6 2.0 16.1 60.9 -8.3 43 0.2
6000 13.3 55.9 080 5 2 3.7 2.0 15.6 60.1 -8.8 27 0.1
5750 13.4 56.1 085 4 2 -2.3 -1.2 15.0 59.0 -9.4 17 0.1
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.6 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +185.3 LI... -1.1
CINH... -0.8 K Index... +20.3 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +18.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.1 -90.6 220 55 28 4.1 2.3 | -68.2 -90.8 215 57 29 4.5 2.4
45000 -61.4 -78.5 225 68 35 5.3 2.9 | -61.2 -78.2 215 69 35 5.3 2.9
40000 -53.1 -63.6 225 73 38 7.6 4.2 | -52.4 -62.3 220 73 38 7.1 3.9
38000 -48.0 -54.4 220 70 36 7.6 4.2 | -48.1 -54.6 220 71 37 7.1 3.9
36000 -43.4 -46.1 215 68 35 7.6 4.2 | -43.8 -46.8 220 69 36 7.1 3.9
34000 -38.6 -37.5 215 67 35 8.1 4.5 | -39.0 -38.2 215 68 35 8.1 4.4
32000 -33.7 -28.7 210 67 35 8.1 4.5 | -34.2 -29.6 215 66 34 8.1 4.4
30000 -28.9 -20.0 210 67 35 8.0 4.4 | -29.3 -20.7 210 66 34 8.1 4.4
29000 -26.5 -15.7 210 67 34 8.0 4.4 | -26.9 -16.4 210 66 34 8.1 4.4
28000 -24.1 -11.4 210 67 34 7.6 4.1 | -24.5 -12.1 210 66 34 7.6 4.2
27000 -22.1 -7.8 210 67 34 6.7 3.7 | -22.4 -8.3 210 66 34 6.7 3.7
26000 -20.0 -4.0 210 67 34 6.7 3.7 | -20.4 -4.7 210 65 34 6.7 3.7
25000 -18.0 -0.4 215 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -17.9 -0.2 210 65 34 6.7 3.7
24000 -15.7 3.7 215 64 33 6.0 3.3 | -15.9 3.4 215 62 32 6.5 3.6
23000 -13.9 7.0 215 61 31 6.0 3.3 | -14.0 6.8 215 60 31 6.5 3.6
22000 -12.1 10.2 220 57 30 5.7 3.1 | -12.0 10.4 220 57 29 6.2 3.4
21000 -10.6 12.9 215 54 28 5.2 2.8 | -10.3 13.5 215 54 28 5.8 3.2
20000 -9.0 15.8 215 51 26 5.2 2.9 | -8.5 16.7 215 52 27 5.8 3.2
19500 -8.3 17.1 215 50 26 5.3 2.9 | -7.7 18.1 215 50 26 5.8 3.2
19000 -7.5 18.5 210 49 25 5.5 3.0 | -6.8 19.8 215 49 25 5.5 3.0
18500 -6.7 19.9 210 49 25 5.5 3.0 | -6.0 21.2 215 49 25 5.6 3.0
18000 -5.9 21.4 210 49 25 5.7 3.1 | -5.2 22.6 210 50 25 5.8 3.2
17500 -5.0 23.0 210 49 25 6.0 3.3 | -4.4 24.1 210 49 25 6.1 3.4
17000 -4.2 24.4 210 49 25 6.1 3.3 | -3.5 25.7 210 49 25 6.4 3.5
16500 -3.4 25.9 205 48 25 6.4 3.5 | -2.7 27.1 205 49 25 6.0 3.3
16000 -2.5 27.5 205 48 25 6.4 3.5 | -1.8 28.8 205 48 25 6.1 3.3
15500 -1.5 29.3 205 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -0.9 30.4 205 47 24 5.9 3.2
15000 -0.6 30.9 205 46 24 6.3 3.5 | -0.1 31.8 205 46 24 5.8 3.2
14500 0.3 32.5 205 46 24 6.2 3.4 | 0.7 33.3 205 45 23 5.8 3.2
14000 1.1 34.0 205 44 23 5.7 3.1 | 1.5 34.7 205 44 23 5.8 3.2
13500 1.9 35.4 205 43 22 5.7 3.1 | 2.4 36.3 200 43 22 5.9 3.3
13000 2.7 36.9 205 41 21 6.0 3.3 | 3.2 37.8 200 41 21 6.5 3.6
12500 3.5 38.3 205 38 20 6.1 3.4 | 4.0 39.2 200 39 20 6.7 3.7
12000 4.3 39.7 205 36 18 6.0 3.3 | 4.8 40.6 200 36 19 6.0 3.3
11500 5.1 41.2 205 32 17 6.0 3.3 | 5.6 42.1 195 33 17 6.3 3.4
11000 5.9 42.6 205 28 15 6.8 3.7 | 6.3 43.3 195 29 15 6.0 3.3
10500 6.8 44.2 200 25 13 6.5 3.6 | 7.2 45.0 190 26 13 5.8 3.2
10250 7.2 45.0 200 23 12 6.3 3.5 | 7.5 45.5 190 24 12 5.3 2.9
10000 7.7 45.9 200 22 11 6.5 3.6 | 7.9 46.2 190 22 11 5.4 2.9
9750 8.1 46.6 195 21 11 6.4 3.5 | 8.2 46.8 185 20 10 5.4 2.9
9500 8.6 47.5 195 20 11 6.7 3.7 | 8.6 47.5 185 19 10 5.5 3.0
9250 9.1 48.4 195 19 10 6.7 3.7 | 9.4 48.9 180 16 8 6.0 3.3
9000 10.0 50.0 190 17 9 6.8 3.7 | 9.8 49.6 175 14 7 5.9 3.3
8750 10.4 50.7 185 16 8 5.7 3.1 | 10.3 50.5 175 13 7 6.2 3.4
8500 10.7 51.3 180 15 8 3.0 1.7 | 10.7 51.3 175 12 6 7.9 4.4
8250 10.9 51.6 180 14 7 3.8 2.1 | 11.4 52.5 175 11 6 9.2 5.0
8000 11.2 52.2 175 12 6 5.1 2.8 | 12.1 53.8 170 10 5 9.0 4.9
7750 11.6 52.9 165 11 6 4.8 2.6 | 12.7 54.9 170 10 5 9.1 5.0
7500 12.0 53.6 160 9 5 4.9 2.7 | 13.4 56.1 170 9 5 9.2 5.1
7250 12.3 54.1 150 7 4 3.7 2.0 | 14.1 57.4 175 9 5 9.9 5.4
7000 12.5 54.5 140 6 3 2.8 1.5 | 14.9 58.8 175 9 4 10.4 5.7
6750 12.8 55.0 120 5 3 3.9 2.2 | 15.6 60.1 170 8 4 9.9 5.4
6500 13.1 55.6 110 5 2 4.4 2.4 | 16.3 61.3 175 8 4 9.9 5.4
6250 13.5 56.3 100 4 2 5.7 3.1 | 17.1 62.8 175 7 4 9.2 5.0
6000 14.1 57.4 095 4 2 11.4 6.3 | 17.8 64.0 175 7 4 12.3 6.7
5750 15.1 59.2 095 3 2 15.8 8.7 | 19.5 67.1 180 6 3 41.5 22.8
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +503.8 LI... -1.9 | CAPE... +541.0 LI... -2.6
CINH... -0.6 K Index... +20.0 | CINH... -10.6 K Index... +21.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 215 56 29 4.4 2.4 | -68.8 -91.8 225 55 28 4.1 2.2
45000 -61.3 -78.3 215 68 35 6.2 3.4 | -61.6 -78.9 215 69 36 6.4 3.5
40000 -51.5 -60.7 215 74 38 6.7 3.7 | -51.4 -60.5 210 74 38 7.2 3.9
38000 -47.5 -53.5 220 71 37 6.7 3.7 | -47.1 -52.8 215 72 37 7.2 3.9
36000 -43.4 -46.1 220 69 36 6.7 3.7 | -42.8 -45.0 215 69 36 7.2 3.9
34000 -38.9 -38.0 220 68 35 7.7 4.2 | -38.3 -36.9 215 68 35 7.6 4.2
32000 -34.3 -29.7 215 66 34 7.7 4.2 | -33.7 -28.7 215 67 34 7.6 4.2
30000 -29.8 -21.6 215 66 34 7.5 4.1 | -29.7 -21.5 215 66 34 6.5 3.6
29000 -27.6 -17.7 210 66 34 7.5 4.1 | -27.8 -18.0 215 65 33 6.5 3.6
28000 -25.3 -13.5 210 66 34 7.3 4.0 | -25.8 -14.4 215 64 33 6.8 3.7
27000 -23.2 -9.8 210 65 33 6.9 3.8 | -23.6 -10.5 215 63 32 7.4 4.0
26000 -21.2 -6.2 215 64 33 6.9 3.8 | -21.4 -6.5 215 61 31 7.4 4.0
25000 -19.1 -2.4 215 63 32 6.9 3.8 | -18.7 -1.7 215 59 30 7.3 4.0
24000 -16.4 2.5 220 60 31 7.1 3.9 | -16.5 2.3 215 57 29 7.2 4.0
23000 -14.3 6.3 220 58 30 7.1 3.9 | -14.3 6.3 215 55 28 7.2 4.0
22000 -12.1 10.2 220 55 28 6.8 3.7 | -12.2 10.0 215 53 27 6.7 3.7
21000 -10.2 13.6 220 53 27 6.2 3.4 | -10.4 13.3 215 50 26 5.8 3.2
20000 -8.4 16.9 215 50 26 6.2 3.4 | -8.7 16.3 210 48 25 5.8 3.2
19500 -7.5 18.5 215 49 25 6.3 3.4 | -7.8 18.0 210 47 24 5.8 3.2
19000 -6.6 20.1 215 48 25 5.7 3.1 | -7.0 19.4 210 46 24 6.1 3.3
18500 -5.8 21.6 210 48 25 5.8 3.2 | -6.1 21.0 210 45 23 6.1 3.4
18000 -4.9 23.2 210 48 25 5.9 3.3 | -5.2 22.6 210 45 23 6.3 3.5
17500 -4.1 24.6 210 48 24 6.1 3.4 | -4.3 24.3 210 44 23 6.5 3.6
17000 -3.2 26.2 210 47 24 6.3 3.5 | -3.3 26.1 210 43 22 6.7 3.7
16500 -2.3 27.9 205 47 24 6.1 3.3 | -2.5 27.5 210 41 21 5.4 3.0
16000 -1.5 29.3 205 46 24 6.2 3.4 | -1.7 28.9 210 40 20 5.6 3.1
15500 -0.6 30.9 205 45 23 6.1 3.3 | -0.9 30.4 210 38 19 5.5 3.0
15000 0.3 32.5 205 44 23 6.0 3.3 | -0.2 31.6 210 35 18 5.6 3.1
14500 1.1 34.0 205 43 22 6.0 3.3 | 0.5 32.9 215 32 17 6.2 3.4
14000 1.9 35.4 200 41 21 5.9 3.3 | 1.5 34.7 215 30 15 7.3 4.0
13500 2.8 37.0 200 39 20 6.0 3.3 | 2.5 36.5 215 27 14 7.5 4.1
13000 3.5 38.3 200 37 19 5.6 3.1 | 3.6 38.5 215 26 13 8.3 4.6
12500 4.2 39.6 200 33 17 5.8 3.2 | 4.8 40.6 215 24 12 8.3 4.5
12000 4.9 40.8 195 30 15 5.9 3.2 | 5.9 42.6 215 23 12 8.3 4.6
11500 5.7 42.3 190 26 14 5.9 3.3 | 7.1 44.8 210 22 11 8.5 4.7
11000 6.5 43.7 190 24 12 7.2 4.0 | 8.2 46.8 205 22 11 6.9 3.8
10500 7.5 45.5 185 23 12 8.1 4.5 | 9.2 48.6 195 23 12 8.0 4.4
10250 8.1 46.6 185 22 11 9.2 5.0 | 9.8 49.6 195 22 11 8.1 4.4
10000 8.8 47.8 185 21 11 8.9 4.9 | 10.3 50.5 190 22 12 7.4 4.0
9750 9.4 48.9 185 21 11 9.1 5.0 | 10.8 51.4 185 23 12 7.4 4.0
9500 10.1 50.2 185 20 10 8.5 4.6 | 11.4 52.5 185 24 12 8.0 4.4
9250 10.7 51.3 185 20 10 8.4 4.6 | 12.6 54.7 185 23 12 8.3 4.5
9000 11.9 53.4 185 18 9 9.0 4.9 | 13.2 55.8 180 24 12 8.5 4.7
8750 12.6 54.7 185 18 9 8.4 4.6 | 13.7 56.7 180 24 12 7.9 4.3
8500 13.2 55.8 185 17 9 8.5 4.7 | 14.3 57.7 180 25 13 8.4 4.6
8250 13.9 57.0 180 17 9 9.8 5.4 | 15.0 59.0 180 25 13 9.7 5.3
8000 14.6 58.3 180 16 8 10.1 5.6 | 15.7 60.3 180 25 13 9.8 5.4
7750 15.3 59.5 180 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 16.4 61.5 180 24 13 9.5 5.2
7500 16.0 60.8 180 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 17.1 62.8 180 24 13 9.0 4.9
7250 16.7 62.1 180 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 17.7 63.9 180 24 12 9.2 5.0
7000 17.4 63.3 180 14 7 10.2 5.6 | 18.4 65.1 180 23 12 9.3 5.1
6750 18.2 64.8 180 14 7 9.9 5.4 | 19.1 66.4 180 23 12 9.7 5.3
6500 18.9 66.0 185 13 7 10.0 5.5 | 19.8 67.6 180 22 11 10.4 5.7
6250 19.6 67.3 185 13 6 9.1 5.0 | 20.6 69.1 180 21 11 8.8 4.8
6000 20.3 68.5 185 12 6 11.5 6.3 | 21.1 70.0 175 19 10 6.0 3.3
5750 21.8 71.2 185 10 5 37.2 20.4 | 21.6 70.9 175 15 8 10.3 5.7
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0723 MDT Tuesday October 14 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, October 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 65.6 F/18.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 479 ft/min (2.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13398 ft MSL (6951 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 71.0 F/22.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10348 ft MSL (3901 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 10/15.... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:10:31 / 18:29:58 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 19 min 27 sec (679 min 27 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:15 MDT... 45.88 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14248 ft MSL (7801 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10849 ft MSL (4402 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11883 ft MSL (5436 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.3
K index......................... +19.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.6 -89.7 215 55 28 3.8 2.1 74.5 166.0 31.2 M M
45000 -61.2 -78.2 215 66 34 5.5 3.0 61.8 143.3 25.4 M M
40000 -52.7 -62.9 220 73 38 7.8 4.3 53.0 127.3 21.2 M M
38000 -47.4 -53.3 215 73 38 7.8 4.3 50.8 123.5 20.3 M M
36000 -42.7 -44.9 215 74 38 7.8 4.3 49.6 121.2 19.9 M M
34000 -37.8 -36.0 215 72 37 8.3 4.5 48.1 118.6 19.4 M M
32000 -32.8 -27.0 215 70 36 8.3 4.5 47.1 116.8 19.1 M M
30000 -28.1 -18.6 215 71 37 7.7 4.2 45.5 113.9 18.3 M M
29000 -25.8 -14.4 215 71 37 7.7 4.2 44.7 112.5 18.0 M M
28000 -23.5 -10.3 220 72 37 7.4 4.1 44.1 111.4 17.7 M M
27000 -21.6 -6.9 220 71 37 6.1 3.4 42.7 108.9 16.8 M M
26000 -19.7 -3.5 220 71 36 6.1 3.4 41.4 106.4 15.9 M M
25000 -17.9 -0.2 220 70 36 6.2 3.4 40.1 104.2 15.0 M M
24000 -16.1 3.0 220 65 34 4.3 2.4 37.9 100.2 13.4 M M
23000 -14.8 5.4 220 60 31 4.4 2.4 35.9 96.6 11.9 M M
22000 -13.5 7.7 220 55 28 4.6 2.5 34.1 93.4 10.4 M M
21000 -12.0 10.4 215 52 27 5.4 3.0 32.5 90.4 9.1 M M
20000 -10.4 13.3 215 51 26 5.4 3.0 31.0 87.7 7.8 M M
19500 -9.7 14.5 215 50 26 5.4 2.9 30.2 86.4 7.2 M M
19000 -8.8 16.2 215 49 25 6.5 3.6 29.6 85.3 6.7 M M
18500 -7.8 18.0 215 48 25 6.7 3.7 29.1 84.3 6.2 M M
18000 -6.9 19.6 215 48 25 6.8 3.7 28.6 83.4 5.8 M M
17500 -5.8 21.6 215 47 24 7.2 4.0 28.1 82.6 5.4 M M
17000 -4.8 23.4 215 46 24 7.3 4.0 27.7 81.8 5.0 M M
16500 -3.8 25.2 215 46 23 6.7 3.7 27.2 81.0 4.6 M M
16000 -2.8 27.0 215 45 23 6.7 3.7 26.7 80.1 4.1 M M
15500 -1.9 28.6 210 43 22 6.1 3.4 26.2 79.2 3.6 M M
15000 -1.1 30.0 210 42 21 5.6 3.1 25.5 77.9 2.9 M M
14500 -0.4 31.3 210 40 20 5.4 3.0 24.8 76.7 2.2 M M
14000 0.2 32.4 210 37 19 4.0 2.2 24.0 75.2 1.3 M M
13500 0.7 33.3 210 34 18 3.9 2.2 23.1 73.5 0.3 M M
13000 1.5 34.7 210 32 17 8.1 4.4 22.5 72.5 -0.3 551 2.8
12500 2.5 36.5 210 30 16 7.8 4.3 22.1 71.9 -0.7 503 2.6
12000 3.6 38.5 210 29 15 7.1 3.9 21.8 71.2 -1.1 457 2.3
11500 4.6 40.3 210 27 14 7.2 4.0 21.4 70.5 -1.5 411 2.1
11000 5.6 42.1 210 25 13 6.1 3.3 20.9 69.6 -2.0 368 1.9
10500 6.9 44.4 210 21 11 6.5 3.5 20.0 68.1 -3.0 308 1.6
10250 7.3 45.1 210 19 10 6.3 3.4 19.8 67.6 -3.2 286 1.5
10000 7.7 45.9 205 18 9 5.4 3.0 19.5 67.1 -3.6 267 1.4
9750 8.1 46.6 205 16 8 6.2 3.4 19.2 66.5 -3.9 248 1.3
9500 8.5 47.3 200 15 8 4.0 2.2 18.9 65.9 -4.3 229 1.2
9250 8.7 47.7 195 14 7 2.3 1.3 18.3 64.9 -4.8 217 1.1
9000 8.9 48.0 190 13 7 3.3 1.8 17.8 64.0 -5.4 203 1.0
8750 9.1 48.4 180 13 6 3.3 1.8 17.3 63.1 -5.9 189 1.0
8500 9.3 48.7 170 12 6 2.5 1.3 16.8 62.2 -6.4 176 0.9
8250 9.4 48.9 165 13 7 2.2 1.2 16.2 61.1 -7.0 164 0.8
8000 9.7 49.5 155 13 6 4.1 2.2 15.7 60.2 -7.5 150 0.8
7750 10.0 50.0 150 12 6 5.1 2.8 15.3 59.5 -7.9 132 0.7
7500 10.4 50.7 140 11 6 5.6 3.1 15.0 58.9 -8.3 113 0.6
7250 10.8 51.4 140 10 5 5.8 3.2 14.7 58.4 -8.6 93 0.5
7000 11.3 52.3 135 9 5 6.6 3.6 14.4 57.9 -8.9 72 0.4
6750 11.8 53.2 130 8 4 7.1 3.9 14.2 57.5 -9.1 49 0.2
6500 12.1 53.8 130 5 2 -3.4 -1.9 13.7 56.7 -9.6 34 0.2
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +15.8 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +67.0 LI... -0.9
CINH... -15.7 K Index... +19.6 | CINH... -4.6 K Index... +19.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.6 -89.7 215 54 28 3.7 2.0 | -67.6 -89.7 215 57 29 3.6 2.0
45000 -61.3 -78.3 220 68 35 5.4 3.0 | -61.3 -78.3 215 71 36 5.6 3.1
40000 -52.3 -62.1 225 76 39 7.4 4.0 | -52.2 -62.0 220 74 38 7.1 3.9
38000 -47.9 -54.2 220 74 38 7.4 4.0 | -47.9 -54.2 220 73 37 7.1 3.9
36000 -43.5 -46.3 220 72 37 7.3 4.0 | -43.7 -46.7 220 71 37 7.1 3.9
34000 -38.7 -37.7 215 72 37 8.1 4.4 | -39.0 -38.2 220 70 36 7.8 4.3
32000 -33.9 -29.0 215 71 37 8.1 4.4 | -34.3 -29.7 215 69 35 7.9 4.3
30000 -29.2 -20.6 210 71 37 7.7 4.2 | -29.7 -21.5 215 68 35 7.7 4.3
29000 -26.9 -16.4 210 71 37 7.7 4.2 | -27.4 -17.3 210 68 35 7.8 4.3
28000 -24.6 -12.3 210 71 37 7.4 4.1 | -25.0 -13.0 210 68 35 7.5 4.1
27000 -22.6 -8.7 215 70 36 6.6 3.6 | -22.9 -9.2 210 68 35 7.0 3.8
26000 -20.6 -5.1 215 70 36 6.7 3.7 | -20.3 -4.5 210 67 35 7.0 3.8
25000 -18.1 -0.6 215 69 35 6.5 3.6 | -18.2 -0.8 210 67 35 6.9 3.8
24000 -16.4 2.5 215 65 33 5.7 3.1 | -16.3 2.7 215 64 33 6.4 3.5
23000 -14.7 5.5 215 61 31 5.7 3.1 | -14.3 6.3 215 60 31 6.4 3.5
22000 -13.0 8.6 215 56 29 5.7 3.1 | -12.4 9.7 215 57 29 6.2 3.4
21000 -11.3 11.7 215 54 28 5.9 3.2 | -10.7 12.7 215 54 28 5.8 3.2
20000 -9.5 14.9 210 51 26 5.9 3.3 | -9.0 15.8 215 52 27 5.8 3.2
19500 -8.7 16.3 210 50 26 6.0 3.3 | -8.1 17.4 215 50 26 5.8 3.2
19000 -7.8 18.0 210 49 25 6.0 3.3 | -7.3 18.9 215 49 25 5.9 3.3
18500 -6.9 19.6 210 49 25 6.0 3.3 | -6.4 20.5 215 49 25 6.0 3.3
18000 -6.1 21.0 210 48 25 6.1 3.3 | -5.6 21.9 215 49 25 6.0 3.3
17500 -5.2 22.6 210 48 25 6.2 3.4 | -4.7 23.5 210 49 25 6.0 3.3
17000 -4.3 24.3 210 49 25 6.4 3.5 | -3.9 25.0 210 49 25 6.1 3.4
16500 -3.5 25.7 210 48 25 6.0 3.3 | -3.1 26.4 210 48 25 5.9 3.2
16000 -2.6 27.3 210 48 25 6.1 3.3 | -2.2 28.0 210 47 24 5.9 3.3
15500 -1.8 28.8 210 47 24 5.8 3.2 | -1.4 29.5 210 46 24 6.1 3.3
15000 -1.0 30.2 210 46 23 5.6 3.1 | -0.5 31.1 210 45 23 6.1 3.4
14500 -0.2 31.6 210 44 23 5.5 3.0 | 0.4 32.7 210 44 23 6.1 3.4
14000 0.4 32.7 210 41 21 5.0 2.7 | 1.2 34.2 205 43 22 6.1 3.4
13500 1.1 34.0 210 38 20 5.1 2.8 | 2.1 35.8 205 41 21 6.2 3.4
13000 1.9 35.4 210 35 18 6.2 3.4 | 2.9 37.2 205 39 20 6.4 3.5
12500 2.7 36.9 205 32 16 6.1 3.3 | 3.8 38.8 205 36 19 6.6 3.6
12000 3.6 38.5 205 29 15 7.3 4.0 | 4.5 40.1 205 33 17 5.8 3.2
11500 4.6 40.3 205 26 13 7.2 4.0 | 5.3 41.5 205 29 15 6.4 3.5
11000 6.1 43.0 205 23 12 6.8 3.7 | 6.5 43.7 200 24 12 5.6 3.1
10500 7.0 44.6 200 20 11 6.6 3.6 | 7.3 45.1 195 20 10 4.8 2.7
10250 7.5 45.5 200 19 10 6.1 3.3 | 7.5 45.5 190 19 10 4.6 2.5
10000 7.9 46.2 195 18 10 5.6 3.1 | 7.9 46.2 185 18 9 5.3 2.9
9750 8.3 46.9 195 18 9 6.4 3.5 | 8.3 46.9 180 17 9 5.6 3.1
9500 8.6 47.5 190 17 9 3.6 2.0 | 8.6 47.5 170 16 8 3.5 1.9
9250 8.8 47.8 185 17 9 2.3 1.3 | 8.8 47.8 170 16 8 3.7 2.0
9000 9.0 48.2 180 16 8 4.3 2.4 | 9.2 48.6 165 15 8 6.1 3.3
8750 9.3 48.7 175 16 8 4.0 2.2 | 9.6 49.3 160 15 8 5.8 3.2
8500 9.6 49.3 165 16 8 3.9 2.1 | 10.1 50.2 160 14 7 7.6 4.2
8250 9.9 49.8 160 16 8 4.0 2.2 | 10.7 51.3 155 14 7 8.8 4.8
8000 10.2 50.4 155 16 8 4.9 2.7 | 11.3 52.3 155 14 7 8.6 4.7
7750 10.6 51.1 150 15 8 6.1 3.3 | 12.0 53.6 155 14 7 9.1 5.0
7500 11.1 52.0 150 14 7 7.4 4.1 | 12.7 54.9 150 14 7 9.9 5.4
7250 11.7 53.1 145 13 6 7.8 4.3 | 13.5 56.3 150 13 7 10.2 5.6
7000 12.2 54.0 140 12 6 7.5 4.1 | 14.2 57.6 150 13 7 9.7 5.3
6750 12.8 55.0 140 11 5 9.0 4.9 | 14.9 58.8 150 12 6 12.6 6.9
6500 13.7 56.7 140 8 4 18.2 10.0 | 16.5 61.7 150 11 6 34.9 19.2
10/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +126.3 LI... -1.1 | CAPE... +164.2 LI... -1.6
CINH... -9.9 K Index... +19.3 | CINH... -35.0 K Index... +19.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.7 -89.9 220 57 29 2.8 1.6 | -68.4 -91.1 225 57 29 2.8 1.5
45000 -61.9 -79.4 215 71 36 6.4 3.5 | -62.5 -80.5 215 71 37 6.6 3.6
40000 -51.7 -61.1 215 74 38 7.1 3.9 | -51.9 -61.4 210 74 38 7.5 4.1
38000 -47.5 -53.5 220 71 37 7.1 3.9 | -47.4 -53.3 215 71 37 7.5 4.1
36000 -43.2 -45.8 220 69 36 7.1 3.9 | -42.9 -45.2 215 69 35 7.5 4.1
34000 -38.7 -37.7 220 68 35 7.6 4.2 | -38.2 -36.8 215 67 35 7.8 4.3
32000 -34.1 -29.4 215 67 35 7.7 4.2 | -33.5 -28.3 215 66 34 7.9 4.3
30000 -29.6 -21.3 215 67 34 7.6 4.2 | -29.3 -20.7 215 65 33 7.1 3.9
29000 -27.3 -17.1 215 66 34 7.6 4.2 | -27.2 -17.0 215 64 33 7.1 3.9
28000 -25.1 -13.2 210 66 34 7.4 4.1 | -25.1 -13.2 215 64 33 7.0 3.8
27000 -23.0 -9.4 215 65 34 6.9 3.8 | -23.0 -9.4 215 63 32 6.8 3.7
26000 -20.4 -4.7 215 65 33 6.9 3.8 | -21.0 -5.8 215 63 32 6.8 3.7
25000 -18.4 -1.1 215 65 33 6.8 3.8 | -18.4 -1.1 220 62 32 6.8 3.7
24000 -16.4 2.5 220 62 32 6.7 3.7 | -16.4 2.5 220 60 31 6.8 3.7
23000 -14.4 6.1 220 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -14.3 6.3 215 57 29 6.8 3.7
22000 -12.4 9.7 220 56 29 6.5 3.6 | -12.3 9.9 215 55 28 6.5 3.6
21000 -10.6 12.9 220 54 28 5.9 3.2 | -10.6 12.9 215 53 27 5.7 3.1
20000 -8.9 16.0 220 51 26 5.9 3.2 | -8.9 16.0 215 51 26 5.7 3.1
19500 -8.0 17.6 215 50 26 5.9 3.2 | -8.1 17.4 215 49 25 5.7 3.1
19000 -7.1 19.2 215 50 25 6.1 3.4 | -7.2 19.0 215 49 25 5.9 3.2
18500 -6.2 20.8 215 49 25 6.1 3.4 | -6.4 20.5 215 48 25 5.9 3.3
18000 -5.3 22.5 215 49 25 6.1 3.4 | -5.5 22.1 215 47 24 6.0 3.3
17500 -4.4 24.1 215 49 25 6.2 3.4 | -4.6 23.7 215 47 24 6.1 3.4
17000 -3.6 25.5 215 49 25 6.3 3.4 | -3.8 25.2 210 46 24 6.2 3.4
16500 -2.7 27.1 210 48 25 5.7 3.1 | -2.9 26.8 210 45 23 6.0 3.3
16000 -1.9 28.6 210 48 25 5.8 3.2 | -2.1 28.2 210 43 22 6.1 3.3
15500 -1.1 30.0 210 47 24 5.7 3.1 | -1.2 29.8 210 42 22 6.1 3.4
15000 -0.3 31.5 210 46 23 5.7 3.1 | -0.4 31.3 210 40 20 6.2 3.4
14500 0.5 32.9 210 44 23 5.7 3.1 | 0.5 32.9 210 38 19 6.2 3.4
14000 1.2 34.2 205 41 21 5.6 3.1 | 1.3 34.3 210 35 18 6.2 3.4
13500 2.0 35.6 205 38 20 5.7 3.1 | 2.1 35.8 205 33 17 6.3 3.5
13000 2.7 36.9 205 35 18 5.3 2.9 | 3.1 37.6 205 31 16 7.2 4.0
12500 3.3 37.9 200 32 17 5.3 2.9 | 4.0 39.2 200 30 15 7.2 4.0
12000 4.1 39.4 200 30 15 7.0 3.8 | 5.0 41.0 200 28 15 7.2 3.9
11500 5.5 41.9 195 27 14 6.2 3.4 | 6.5 43.7 195 27 14 6.9 3.8
11000 6.4 43.5 195 25 13 6.7 3.7 | 7.5 45.5 195 26 13 7.1 3.9
10500 7.3 45.1 190 23 12 7.1 3.9 | 8.5 47.3 190 25 13 7.6 4.2
10250 7.9 46.2 190 22 11 6.8 3.7 | 9.1 48.4 190 24 12 7.9 4.3
10000 8.3 46.9 185 21 11 6.0 3.3 | 9.6 49.3 185 24 12 7.5 4.1
9750 8.7 47.7 185 20 11 6.1 3.3 | 10.1 50.2 185 23 12 7.3 4.0
9500 9.1 48.4 180 20 10 6.5 3.6 | 10.7 51.3 180 23 12 8.5 4.7
9250 9.6 49.3 175 19 10 6.3 3.5 | 11.3 52.3 180 23 12 8.1 4.5
9000 10.0 50.0 170 18 10 5.8 3.2 | 11.8 53.2 175 22 12 6.7 3.7
8750 10.4 50.7 165 18 9 5.7 3.1 | 12.3 54.1 175 22 11 7.1 3.9
8500 10.8 51.4 160 17 9 7.0 3.9 | 12.8 55.0 170 21 11 6.6 3.6
8250 11.4 52.5 155 17 9 8.2 4.5 | 13.2 55.8 165 21 11 6.3 3.4
8000 12.0 53.6 155 16 8 7.6 4.2 | 13.7 56.7 160 20 10 6.7 3.7
7750 12.6 54.7 150 16 8 7.9 4.4 | 14.1 57.4 155 19 10 6.3 3.5
7500 13.2 55.8 145 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 14.5 58.1 150 18 9 5.0 2.7
7250 13.9 57.0 140 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 14.8 58.6 145 17 9 4.2 2.3
7000 14.6 58.3 140 14 7 8.1 4.4 | 15.2 59.4 135 16 8 5.8 3.2
6750 15.1 59.2 135 13 7 8.8 4.8 | 15.6 60.1 135 14 7 6.6 3.6
6500 16.4 61.5 135 11 6 30.5 16.7 | 15.8 60.4 130 10 5 -5.4 -2.9
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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