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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0721 MDT Saturday October 17 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, October 17, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 62.5 F/16.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 306 ft/min (1.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10231 ft MSL (3901 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 62.0 F/17.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1545 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9325 ft MSL (2995 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 10/18....... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:11:55 / 18:26:37 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 14 min 42 sec (674 min 42 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:49:16 MDT... 45.48 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/17/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 6435 ft MSL (105 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 13832 ft MSL (7502 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 30235 ft MSL (23905 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 21982 ft MSL (15652 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +13.7
K index......................... -49.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.5 -84.1 265 31 16 3.4 1.9 82.0 179.6 38.4 M M
45000 -58.8 -73.8 255 45 23 4.1 2.2 67.1 152.8 31.8 M M
40000 -52.5 -62.5 250 49 25 6.2 3.4 54.9 130.9 25.7 M M
38000 -48.8 -55.8 255 43 22 6.2 3.4 51.5 124.7 24.1 M M
36000 -45.1 -49.2 260 36 19 6.2 3.4 48.8 119.8 22.7 M M
34000 -41.2 -42.2 255 30 15 6.6 3.6 45.9 114.6 21.2 M M
32000 -36.7 -34.1 245 24 12 6.6 3.6 43.2 109.7 19.8 M M
30000 -32.7 -26.9 250 19 10 6.8 3.8 40.7 105.3 18.4 M M
29000 -30.6 -23.1 255 17 9 6.8 3.8 39.6 103.4 17.8 M M
28000 -28.6 -19.5 260 15 8 6.5 3.6 38.7 101.6 17.3 M M
27000 -26.7 -16.1 260 13 7 6.3 3.5 37.2 99.0 16.3 M M
26000 -24.8 -12.6 255 10 5 6.3 3.5 36.0 96.7 15.5 M M
25000 -22.9 -9.2 250 8 4 6.3 3.5 34.8 94.6 14.7 M M
24000 -20.7 -5.3 245 6 3 7.5 4.1 33.8 92.9 14.1 M M
23000 -18.5 -1.3 240 5 2 7.5 4.1 33.0 91.4 13.6 M M
22000 -16.2 2.8 235 3 2 7.4 4.1 32.3 90.1 13.1 M M
21000 -14.1 6.6 200 4 2 7.1 3.9 31.3 88.4 12.4 M M
20000 -11.9 10.6 180 7 3 7.1 3.9 30.4 86.7 11.8 M M
19500 -10.9 12.4 175 8 4 7.2 4.0 30.0 86.0 11.5 M M
19000 -9.9 14.2 170 9 4 6.0 3.3 29.5 85.1 11.1 M M
18500 -9.0 15.8 155 9 5 6.0 3.3 28.8 83.9 10.6 M M
18000 -7.6 18.3 140 10 5 5.9 3.2 27.9 82.2 9.9 M M
17500 -6.7 19.9 140 10 5 5.9 3.2 27.2 81.0 9.3 M M
17000 -5.9 21.4 135 10 5 6.0 3.3 26.6 79.8 8.8 M M
16500 -4.9 23.2 140 10 5 6.2 3.4 26.0 78.7 8.3 M M
16000 -4.0 24.8 140 10 5 6.2 3.4 25.4 77.7 7.8 M M
15500 -3.1 26.4 145 10 5 6.7 3.7 24.8 76.7 7.4 M M
15000 -2.1 28.2 145 10 5 6.7 3.7 24.3 75.8 6.9 M M
14500 -1.1 30.0 150 11 5 6.0 3.3 23.8 74.8 6.5 M M
14000 -0.2 31.6 145 11 6 6.0 3.3 23.2 73.7 5.9 M M
13500 0.7 33.3 145 12 6 5.8 3.2 22.6 72.6 5.4 M M
13000 1.5 34.7 145 12 6 5.7 3.1 21.9 71.4 4.8 M M
12500 2.4 36.3 145 13 7 4.9 2.7 21.2 70.2 4.2 M M
12000 3.0 37.4 140 13 7 4.5 2.5 20.4 68.7 3.5 M M
11500 3.7 38.7 140 14 7 4.1 2.2 19.6 67.2 2.7 M M
11000 4.2 39.6 135 14 7 3.0 1.7 18.6 65.4 1.8 M M
10500 4.6 40.3 130 14 7 1.8 1.0 17.5 63.4 0.7 M M
10250 4.7 40.5 130 14 7 1.2 0.7 16.8 62.2 0.1 M M
10000 4.8 40.6 130 14 7 0.8 0.5 16.1 61.0 -0.6 297 1.5
9750 4.8 40.6 125 14 7 -0.7 -0.4 15.4 59.7 -1.3 289 1.5
9500 4.7 40.5 125 14 7 -3.0 -1.6 14.5 58.1 -2.2 286 1.5
9250 4.4 39.9 125 13 7 -4.2 -2.3 13.4 56.1 -3.2 288 1.5
9000 4.1 39.4 125 12 6 -3.7 -2.0 12.4 54.3 -4.2 289 1.5
8750 3.7 38.7 125 12 6 -6.1 -3.3 11.3 52.3 -5.3 293 1.5
8500 3.1 37.6 125 11 6 -8.3 -4.5 9.9 49.9 -6.7 303 1.5
8250 2.5 36.5 125 10 5 -8.4 -4.6 8.6 47.4 -8.1 316 1.6
8000 1.8 35.2 130 9 5 -7.0 -3.9 7.2 44.9 -9.5 328 1.7
7750 1.4 34.5 135 8 4 -2.8 -1.5 6.1 42.9 -10.7 333 1.7
7500 1.3 34.3 135 7 4 -0.7 -0.4 5.2 41.4 -11.6 330 1.7
7250 1.2 34.2 140 6 3 -2.3 -1.3 4.4 39.9 -12.5 326 1.7
7000 1.0 33.8 150 4 2 2.2 1.2 3.6 38.4 -13.3 323 1.6
6750 1.2 34.2 165 3 2 -1.1 -0.6 3.1 37.5 -13.9 309 1.6
6500 0.5 32.9 180 2 1 -19.4 -10.7 1.5 34.8 -15.4 325 1.6
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/17/2026 at 0900 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.1
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -46.1 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -43.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.8 -82.8 255 36 18 4.2 2.3 | -63.8 -82.8 260 45 23 4.1 2.3
45000 -57.6 -71.7 250 52 27 3.1 1.7 | -57.6 -71.7 260 61 31 3.3 1.8
40000 -52.5 -62.5 250 53 27 6.0 3.3 | -52.5 -62.5 245 61 31 5.2 2.9
38000 -49.0 -56.2 245 44 23 6.0 3.3 | -49.4 -56.9 245 50 26 5.2 2.8
36000 -45.4 -49.7 245 35 18 6.0 3.3 | -46.3 -51.3 240 39 20 5.2 2.9
34000 -41.1 -42.0 245 28 14 6.4 3.5 | -42.0 -43.6 240 28 14 6.7 3.7
32000 -37.2 -35.0 245 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -38.0 -36.4 250 18 9 6.6 3.6
30000 -32.9 -27.2 255 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -33.3 -27.9 255 14 7 8.1 4.4
29000 -30.7 -23.3 270 14 7 7.4 4.1 | -30.9 -23.6 255 13 6 8.1 4.4
28000 -28.5 -19.3 280 12 6 7.1 3.9 | -28.5 -19.3 260 11 6 7.7 4.2
27000 -26.4 -15.5 265 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -26.3 -15.3 250 10 5 7.5 4.1
26000 -24.4 -11.9 250 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -24.0 -11.2 245 9 5 7.5 4.1
25000 -22.3 -8.1 230 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -21.8 -7.2 230 8 4 7.5 4.1
24000 -20.3 -4.5 220 9 4 6.6 3.6 | -20.0 -4.0 215 9 5 5.9 3.2
23000 -18.3 -0.9 205 7 4 6.6 3.6 | -18.2 -0.8 200 10 5 5.9 3.2
22000 -16.3 2.7 185 7 3 6.7 3.7 | -16.5 2.3 190 12 6 6.1 3.4
21000 -14.2 6.4 195 6 3 7.1 3.9 | -14.4 6.1 195 11 6 7.2 4.0
20000 -12.1 10.2 215 5 3 7.1 3.9 | -12.2 10.0 200 9 5 7.2 4.0
19500 -11.0 12.2 225 5 3 7.0 3.8 | -11.1 12.0 200 8 4 7.2 3.9
19000 -10.0 14.0 225 5 3 7.6 4.2 | -9.4 15.1 205 7 3 7.9 4.3
18500 -8.2 17.2 205 6 3 7.8 4.3 | -8.2 17.2 205 6 3 8.0 4.4
18000 -7.2 19.0 190 7 3 6.1 3.3 | -7.0 19.4 205 6 3 7.1 3.9
17500 -6.2 20.8 175 7 4 6.1 3.4 | -6.0 21.2 195 6 3 7.0 3.9
17000 -5.3 22.5 160 8 4 6.1 3.4 | -4.9 23.2 190 6 3 6.7 3.7
16500 -4.4 24.1 155 9 5 6.1 3.3 | -3.9 25.0 175 7 4 6.2 3.4
16000 -3.5 25.7 150 10 5 6.1 3.3 | -3.0 26.6 165 8 4 6.2 3.4
15500 -2.6 27.3 150 11 6 6.3 3.5 | -2.1 28.2 160 9 5 6.1 3.3
15000 -1.6 29.1 150 11 6 6.3 3.5 | -1.2 29.8 160 10 5 6.1 3.3
14500 -0.7 30.7 150 12 6 6.1 3.4 | -0.3 31.5 155 11 6 6.0 3.3
14000 0.2 32.4 150 12 6 6.2 3.4 | 0.6 33.1 160 12 6 6.0 3.3
13500 1.1 34.0 155 13 7 5.7 3.1 | 1.5 34.7 160 12 6 6.0 3.3
13000 1.9 35.4 155 13 7 5.5 3.0 | 2.4 36.3 160 13 7 6.0 3.3
12500 2.8 37.0 150 14 7 4.9 2.7 | 3.3 37.9 165 14 7 5.4 3.0
12000 3.4 38.1 150 14 7 4.6 2.5 | 4.0 39.2 165 14 7 5.0 2.8
11500 4.1 39.4 150 14 7 4.7 2.6 | 4.8 40.6 165 14 7 5.5 3.0
11000 4.8 40.6 150 14 7 4.0 2.2 | 5.5 41.9 165 14 7 3.4 1.9
10500 5.4 41.7 150 14 7 3.5 1.9 | 6.0 42.8 165 13 7 3.1 1.7
10250 5.6 42.1 150 14 7 3.5 1.9 | 6.2 43.2 160 13 7 3.0 1.6
10000 5.9 42.6 150 14 7 2.7 1.5 | 6.4 43.5 160 13 7 2.4 1.3
9750 6.0 42.8 145 13 7 1.2 0.7 | 6.6 43.9 160 13 7 1.7 0.9
9500 6.1 43.0 145 13 7 -0.0 -0.0 | 6.7 44.1 160 12 6 0.7 0.4
9250 6.0 42.8 145 12 6 -0.8 -0.5 | 6.7 44.1 160 12 6 -0.3 -0.2
9000 6.0 42.8 145 12 6 -0.3 -0.2 | 6.7 44.1 160 11 6 0.2 0.1
8750 5.9 42.6 140 11 6 -3.2 -1.8 | 6.7 44.1 160 10 5 -1.1 -0.6
8500 5.5 41.9 140 10 5 -6.7 -3.7 | 6.5 43.7 160 9 5 -3.9 -2.2
8250 4.9 40.8 140 9 4 -6.6 -3.6 | 6.1 43.0 160 8 4 -4.1 -2.3
8000 4.4 39.9 140 8 4 -7.4 -4.0 | 5.7 42.3 165 7 3 -5.5 -3.0
7750 3.7 38.7 140 6 3 -8.8 -4.8 | 5.4 41.7 170 5 3 2.5 1.4
7500 3.0 37.4 145 5 2 -8.3 -4.5 | 6.0 42.8 170 5 3 10.6 5.8
7250 2.3 36.1 145 3 2 -10.2 -5.6 | 6.7 44.1 170 5 2 9.0 5.0
7000 1.7 35.1 155 2 1 -2.3 -1.3 | 7.4 45.3 175 5 2 9.2 5.0
6750 2.0 35.6 165 1 1 9.6 5.3 | 8.1 46.6 175 4 2 12.5 6.9
6500 2.7 36.9 195 1 0 6.1 3.3 | 9.3 48.7 175 4 2 19.4 10.6
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/17/2026 at 1500 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.2
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -40.0 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -34.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 260 50 26 4.1 2.2 | -64.0 -83.2 265 47 24 4.6 2.5
45000 -57.6 -71.7 260 66 34 3.9 2.1 | -57.1 -70.8 265 63 33 3.8 2.1
40000 -51.8 -61.2 250 70 36 4.0 2.2 | -51.4 -60.5 250 71 36 4.0 2.2
38000 -49.4 -56.9 245 56 29 4.0 2.2 | -49.0 -56.2 250 58 30 4.0 2.2
36000 -47.0 -52.6 240 42 21 4.1 2.3 | -46.6 -51.9 255 45 23 4.1 2.2
34000 -43.2 -45.8 240 33 17 7.2 3.9 | -42.5 -44.5 250 36 18 6.7 3.7
32000 -38.4 -37.1 235 25 13 7.2 3.9 | -38.5 -37.3 240 29 15 6.7 3.7
30000 -33.7 -28.7 240 20 10 8.1 4.4 | -33.9 -29.0 240 22 12 8.1 4.4
29000 -31.2 -24.2 245 18 9 8.1 4.4 | -31.5 -24.7 245 19 10 8.1 4.4
28000 -28.8 -19.8 255 16 8 8.0 4.4 | -29.1 -20.4 245 16 8 8.1 4.5
27000 -26.4 -15.5 245 16 8 8.0 4.4 | -26.6 -15.9 245 16 8 8.2 4.5
26000 -24.0 -11.2 235 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -24.1 -11.4 245 16 8 8.3 4.5
25000 -21.6 -6.9 225 15 8 8.2 4.5 | -21.6 -6.9 245 15 8 8.5 4.6
24000 -19.6 -3.3 225 15 8 6.1 3.4 | -19.6 -3.3 245 15 8 6.6 3.6
23000 -17.8 -0.0 225 15 8 6.3 3.4 | -17.6 0.3 240 15 8 6.6 3.6
22000 -16.1 3.0 220 14 7 6.4 3.5 | -15.7 3.7 235 14 7 6.7 3.7
21000 -14.1 6.6 220 13 6 6.6 3.6 | -13.7 7.3 230 12 6 6.6 3.6
20000 -12.1 10.2 215 11 5 6.6 3.6 | -11.8 10.8 215 10 5 6.7 3.7
19500 -11.1 12.0 210 9 5 6.6 3.6 | -10.8 12.6 210 9 5 6.7 3.6
19000 -10.0 14.0 210 9 4 7.4 4.1 | -9.2 15.4 200 8 4 7.4 4.1
18500 -8.3 17.1 210 7 4 7.7 4.2 | -8.0 17.6 200 7 4 7.5 4.1
18000 -7.1 19.2 210 7 3 7.4 4.1 | -6.8 19.8 200 7 4 7.1 3.9
17500 -6.0 21.2 205 7 4 7.4 4.1 | -5.8 21.6 195 7 3 7.0 3.8
17000 -4.8 23.4 200 7 4 7.2 3.9 | -4.7 23.5 195 7 3 7.0 3.9
16500 -3.8 25.2 195 8 4 6.7 3.7 | -3.6 25.5 190 7 4 7.0 3.8
16000 -2.8 27.0 190 9 5 6.7 3.7 | -2.5 27.5 190 8 4 7.1 3.9
15500 -1.7 28.9 185 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -1.5 29.3 185 8 4 6.5 3.6
15000 -0.6 30.9 180 11 5 7.3 4.0 | -0.5 31.1 185 9 4 6.6 3.6
14500 0.4 32.7 175 11 6 6.6 3.6 | 0.5 32.9 180 9 5 6.4 3.5
14000 1.4 34.5 175 11 6 6.5 3.5 | 1.4 34.5 180 9 5 6.4 3.5
13500 2.3 36.1 170 12 6 5.8 3.2 | 2.4 36.3 180 10 5 6.1 3.3
13000 3.1 37.6 170 12 6 5.3 2.9 | 3.3 37.9 180 10 5 5.8 3.2
12500 3.9 39.0 170 12 6 5.1 2.8 | 4.1 39.4 180 10 5 5.6 3.1
12000 4.7 40.5 170 12 6 5.0 2.7 | 4.9 40.8 180 10 5 5.3 2.9
11500 5.4 41.7 170 11 6 5.6 3.1 | 5.7 42.3 180 9 5 5.0 2.8
11000 6.1 43.0 175 11 6 3.7 2.0 | 6.1 43.0 185 9 5 1.4 0.8
10500 6.7 44.1 175 10 5 3.0 1.6 | 6.4 43.5 190 9 4 1.5 0.8
10250 6.9 44.4 175 10 5 1.5 0.8 | 6.4 43.5 190 9 4 1.2 0.7
10000 7.0 44.6 175 9 5 0.5 0.3 | 6.5 43.7 190 9 4 2.1 1.1
9750 6.9 44.4 175 9 4 0.1 0.1 | 6.7 44.1 195 9 4 2.0 1.1
9500 6.9 44.4 175 8 4 -0.9 -0.5 | 6.8 44.2 195 9 4 4.0 2.2
9250 6.7 44.1 175 7 4 -2.9 -1.6 | 7.2 45.0 195 8 4 6.6 3.6
9000 6.5 43.7 175 6 3 -0.2 -0.1 | 7.7 45.9 195 8 4 6.2 3.4
8750 6.6 43.9 180 6 3 3.9 2.1 | 8.1 46.6 195 8 4 5.8 3.2
8500 7.0 44.6 180 6 3 7.7 4.2 | 8.6 47.5 200 7 4 6.8 3.7
8250 7.7 45.9 180 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 9.1 48.4 200 7 3 7.8 4.3
8000 8.4 47.1 180 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 9.7 49.5 200 6 3 7.5 4.1
7750 9.0 48.2 180 6 3 9.0 4.9 | 10.3 50.5 200 6 3 8.0 4.4
7500 9.8 49.6 180 6 3 9.9 5.4 | 10.9 51.6 205 5 3 8.8 4.8
7250 10.5 50.9 180 6 3 10.3 5.6 | 11.5 52.7 205 5 2 8.6 4.7
7000 11.3 52.3 185 5 3 10.2 5.6 | 12.2 54.0 210 4 2 10.0 5.5
6750 12.1 53.8 185 5 3 13.1 7.2 | 12.8 55.0 210 4 2 4.4 2.4
6500 13.3 55.9 185 5 3 17.5 9.6 | 12.6 54.7 215 3 1 -9.1 -5.0
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0721 MDT Saturday October 17 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, October 17, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 62.2 F/16.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 309 ft/min (1.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10074 ft MSL (4398 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 64.0 F/18.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9125 ft MSL (3450 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 10/18....... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:14:28 / 18:29:03 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 14 min 35 sec (674 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:51:45 MDT... 45.45 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/17/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13928 ft MSL (8252 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 28639 ft MSL (22963 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20612 ft MSL (14936 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +13.7
K index......................... -51.2
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.2 -83.6 260 33 17 3.3 1.8 84.9 184.8 39.2 M M
45000 -58.9 -74.0 250 49 25 4.0 2.2 70.4 158.8 32.8 M M
40000 -52.4 -62.3 250 49 25 5.8 3.2 57.1 134.8 26.3 M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 250 42 22 5.8 3.2 53.4 128.0 24.4 M M
36000 -45.4 -49.7 255 36 18 5.8 3.2 50.3 122.6 22.9 M M
34000 -41.5 -42.7 250 30 16 6.7 3.7 47.4 117.3 21.4 M M
32000 -37.5 -35.5 245 25 13 6.7 3.7 45.0 113.0 20.2 M M
30000 -33.2 -27.8 245 20 10 7.2 3.9 42.8 109.0 19.0 M M
29000 -31.1 -24.0 255 17 9 7.2 3.9 41.8 107.3 18.5 M M
28000 -28.9 -20.0 260 15 8 7.1 3.9 41.0 105.7 18.0 M M
27000 -26.9 -16.4 260 13 7 6.7 3.7 39.7 103.5 17.3 M M
26000 -24.4 -11.9 250 11 5 6.7 3.7 38.3 100.9 16.3 M M
25000 -22.4 -8.3 240 9 5 6.6 3.6 37.2 99.0 15.7 M M
24000 -20.5 -4.9 230 6 3 6.3 3.4 35.9 96.6 14.8 M M
23000 -18.6 -1.5 195 4 2 6.3 3.4 34.6 94.3 13.9 M M
22000 -16.7 1.9 140 4 2 6.8 3.7 33.4 92.2 13.1 M M
21000 -14.5 5.9 175 4 2 7.5 4.1 32.5 90.6 12.4 M M
20000 -12.2 10.0 200 6 3 7.5 4.1 31.7 89.1 11.9 M M
19500 -11.1 12.0 205 6 3 7.5 4.1 31.4 88.5 11.7 M M
19000 -9.9 14.2 200 7 4 8.2 4.5 31.1 87.9 11.5 M M
18500 -8.7 16.3 190 8 4 8.1 4.5 30.8 87.4 11.3 M M
18000 -7.5 18.5 180 9 4 7.5 4.1 30.5 86.9 11.1 M M
17500 -6.4 20.5 170 9 5 7.3 4.0 30.1 86.1 10.8 M M
17000 -5.3 22.5 160 10 5 7.1 3.9 29.7 85.4 10.5 M M
16500 -4.3 24.3 150 11 6 6.1 3.4 29.1 84.4 10.0 M M
16000 -3.4 25.9 145 12 6 6.3 3.4 28.5 83.3 9.6 M M
15500 -2.5 27.5 145 13 7 5.3 2.9 27.8 82.1 9.0 M M
15000 -1.7 28.9 140 14 7 5.3 2.9 27.1 80.8 8.4 M M
14500 -0.9 30.4 140 15 8 5.1 2.8 26.4 79.4 7.8 M M
14000 -0.2 31.6 140 15 8 5.0 2.7 25.6 78.0 7.1 M M
13500 0.5 32.9 140 16 8 4.8 2.6 24.8 76.6 6.4 M M
13000 1.2 34.2 140 16 8 4.6 2.5 23.9 75.1 5.7 M M
12500 1.9 35.4 140 17 9 4.5 2.4 23.1 73.6 4.9 M M
12000 2.6 36.7 140 17 9 4.1 2.3 22.2 72.0 4.1 M M
11500 3.2 37.8 140 17 9 3.9 2.1 21.3 70.4 3.3 M M
11000 3.7 38.7 135 16 8 3.2 1.8 20.3 68.6 2.4 M M
10500 4.2 39.6 135 16 8 1.6 0.9 19.3 66.8 1.4 M M
10250 4.2 39.6 130 15 8 0.5 0.3 18.6 65.4 0.7 M M
10000 4.4 39.9 130 14 7 1.9 1.0 17.9 64.2 0.1 M M
9750 4.5 40.1 130 14 7 2.4 1.3 17.3 63.1 -0.5 299 1.5
9500 4.6 40.3 125 13 7 -0.6 -0.3 16.7 62.0 -1.1 288 1.5
9250 4.2 39.6 120 11 6 -1.5 -0.8 14.7 58.5 -3.0 285 1.5
9000 4.1 39.4 120 10 5 -1.0 -0.6 13.9 57.0 -3.8 281 1.4
8750 4.0 39.2 120 9 5 -1.0 -0.5 13.1 55.5 -4.7 276 1.4
8500 3.9 39.0 115 8 4 -0.3 -0.2 12.2 54.0 -5.5 272 1.4
8250 3.9 39.0 115 7 4 -2.2 -1.2 11.4 52.6 -6.3 267 1.4
8000 3.6 38.5 110 6 3 -0.7 -0.4 10.5 50.9 -7.3 266 1.4
7750 3.8 38.8 105 5 3 2.6 1.4 9.9 49.8 -8.0 255 1.3
7500 4.0 39.2 100 5 3 4.2 2.3 9.3 48.8 -8.5 242 1.2
7250 4.2 39.6 095 4 2 -1.8 -1.0 8.8 47.9 -9.0 228 1.2
7000 3.8 38.8 090 4 2 -2.0 -1.1 7.7 45.9 -10.2 232 1.2
6750 4.0 39.2 085 4 2 3.4 1.9 7.2 44.9 -10.8 220 1.1
6500 4.1 39.4 085 4 2 2.9 1.6 6.6 43.9 -11.4 207 1.1
6250 4.3 39.7 080 4 2 0.8 0.4 6.1 43.0 -11.9 194 1.0
6000 4.0 39.2 085 4 2 -8.0 -4.4 5.1 41.2 -13.0 195 1.0
5750 3.6 38.5 085 3 2 3.0 1.7 3.9 39.1 -14.2 201 1.0
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/17/2026 at 0900 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +7.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.9
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -45.9 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -43.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 250 38 20 4.1 2.2 | -63.7 -82.7 255 45 23 4.1 2.3
45000 -57.5 -71.5 250 56 29 3.1 1.7 | -57.6 -71.7 255 62 32 3.3 1.8
40000 -52.6 -62.7 245 54 28 5.6 3.1 | -52.5 -62.5 240 63 33 4.5 2.5
38000 -49.3 -56.7 245 44 23 5.5 3.0 | -49.9 -57.8 240 48 25 4.4 2.4
36000 -46.1 -51.0 240 35 18 5.5 3.0 | -47.3 -53.1 235 34 17 4.5 2.5
34000 -41.9 -43.4 245 28 14 6.5 3.5 | -42.8 -45.0 235 25 13 7.3 4.0
32000 -38.0 -36.4 250 22 11 6.4 3.5 | -38.5 -37.3 245 20 10 7.3 4.0
30000 -33.5 -28.3 260 17 9 7.9 4.3 | -33.6 -28.5 245 16 8 8.3 4.6
29000 -31.1 -24.0 265 15 8 7.9 4.3 | -31.1 -24.0 250 14 7 8.3 4.6
28000 -28.8 -19.8 270 13 7 7.5 4.1 | -28.6 -19.5 250 12 6 8.1 4.4
27000 -26.6 -15.9 260 11 6 7.1 3.9 | -26.3 -15.3 245 11 6 7.7 4.2
26000 -24.5 -12.1 245 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -24.0 -11.2 235 10 5 7.7 4.2
25000 -22.4 -8.3 230 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -21.7 -7.1 225 9 5 8.0 4.4
24000 -20.3 -4.5 210 9 5 6.7 3.7 | -19.8 -3.6 215 10 5 5.7 3.1
23000 -18.3 -0.9 190 9 5 6.7 3.7 | -18.1 -0.6 205 11 6 5.7 3.1
22000 -15.8 3.6 175 11 6 6.5 3.6 | -16.0 3.2 195 12 6 6.5 3.6
21000 -13.9 7.0 175 9 4 6.4 3.5 | -14.0 6.8 195 11 6 6.9 3.8
20000 -12.0 10.4 175 6 3 6.5 3.5 | -11.9 10.6 190 10 5 6.9 3.8
19500 -11.0 12.2 175 5 3 6.8 3.7 | -10.8 12.6 190 10 5 7.0 3.9
19000 -9.9 14.2 180 5 3 7.9 4.3 | -9.7 14.5 190 9 4 7.5 4.1
18500 -8.7 16.3 180 5 3 7.8 4.3 | -8.6 16.5 190 7 4 7.5 4.1
18000 -7.6 18.3 180 5 3 7.4 4.0 | -7.5 18.5 185 6 3 7.5 4.1
17500 -6.5 20.3 175 6 3 7.3 4.0 | -6.3 20.7 185 6 3 7.5 4.1
17000 -5.4 22.3 170 6 3 7.1 3.9 | -5.2 22.6 180 6 3 7.4 4.0
16500 -4.4 24.1 165 7 4 6.8 3.7 | -4.1 24.6 175 7 3 7.1 3.9
16000 -3.3 26.1 160 9 4 6.9 3.8 | -3.1 26.4 170 8 4 7.2 3.9
15500 -2.4 27.7 155 10 5 6.0 3.3 | -2.0 28.4 165 9 4 6.4 3.5
15000 -1.4 29.5 155 11 6 6.1 3.4 | -1.1 30.0 160 10 5 6.4 3.5
14500 -0.5 31.1 150 12 6 6.1 3.3 | -0.1 31.8 155 11 6 6.2 3.4
14000 0.4 32.7 150 14 7 6.1 3.3 | 0.8 33.4 155 13 7 6.1 3.3
13500 1.3 34.3 150 15 8 5.7 3.2 | 1.7 35.1 155 14 7 5.9 3.2
13000 2.1 35.8 150 16 8 5.5 3.0 | 2.6 36.7 155 15 8 5.7 3.1
12500 2.9 37.2 150 16 8 5.2 2.9 | 3.4 38.1 160 16 8 5.5 3.0
12000 3.7 38.7 150 17 9 4.8 2.6 | 4.2 39.6 160 16 8 5.2 2.9
11500 4.4 39.9 145 17 9 4.3 2.3 | 5.0 41.0 160 16 8 4.8 2.6
11000 4.9 40.8 145 17 9 3.3 1.8 | 5.6 42.1 155 16 8 3.8 2.1
10500 5.4 41.7 145 17 9 1.5 0.8 | 6.2 43.2 155 15 8 2.2 1.2
10250 5.4 41.7 140 16 8 0.5 0.3 | 6.3 43.3 155 14 7 0.5 0.3
10000 5.6 42.1 140 15 8 2.0 1.1 | 6.3 43.3 150 13 7 1.3 0.7
9750 5.7 42.3 135 14 7 2.2 1.2 | 6.4 43.5 150 13 7 1.5 0.8
9500 5.8 42.4 135 13 7 -0.9 -0.5 | 6.5 43.7 145 12 6 -0.1 -0.0
9250 5.6 42.1 130 12 6 -3.5 -1.9 | 6.4 43.5 145 11 6 -3.0 -1.6
9000 5.4 41.7 130 11 6 -1.5 -0.8 | 6.1 43.0 140 10 5 -4.1 -2.2
8750 5.3 41.5 125 10 5 -1.7 -0.9 | 5.7 42.3 135 8 4 -4.2 -2.3
8500 4.8 40.6 115 8 4 -4.2 -2.3 | 5.1 41.2 130 6 3 -3.3 -1.8
8250 4.4 39.9 110 6 3 -4.2 -2.3 | 5.0 41.0 125 5 2 1.6 0.9
8000 4.1 39.4 105 5 3 -2.4 -1.3 | 5.3 41.5 125 4 2 5.2 2.8
7750 4.0 39.2 095 4 2 -0.2 -0.1 | 5.6 42.1 120 3 1 5.4 3.0
7500 4.0 39.2 085 4 2 0.4 0.2 | 6.0 42.8 120 2 1 5.5 3.0
7250 4.0 39.2 065 3 2 -1.6 -0.9 | 6.4 43.5 125 1 1 7.9 4.3
7000 3.8 38.8 055 3 2 1.1 0.6 | 7.2 45.0 140 1 0 10.1 5.6
6750 4.1 39.4 050 3 2 5.4 3.0 | 7.9 46.2 000 0 0 9.8 5.4
6500 4.4 39.9 045 3 2 3.5 1.9 | 8.6 47.5 000 0 0 9.2 5.1
6250 4.8 40.6 035 3 1 7.3 4.0 | 9.4 48.9 235 1 0 11.8 6.5
6000 5.6 42.1 040 2 1 14.7 8.1 | 10.5 50.9 255 1 1 18.8 10.3
5750 6.4 43.5 035 2 1 -0.1 -0.1 | 11.7 53.1 260 2 1 9.2 5.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/17/2026 at 1500 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.8
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -38.7 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -32.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 260 47 24 4.0 2.2 | -63.7 -82.7 265 42 22 4.5 2.5
45000 -57.3 -71.1 255 65 34 4.0 2.2 | -56.9 -70.4 265 60 31 4.1 2.2
40000 -51.3 -60.3 245 67 34 3.3 1.8 | -50.9 -59.6 250 68 35 3.0 1.6
38000 -49.4 -56.9 245 52 27 3.3 1.8 | -49.0 -56.2 255 55 28 3.1 1.7
36000 -47.4 -53.3 240 37 19 3.4 1.9 | -47.0 -52.6 255 41 21 2.8 1.5
34000 -43.4 -46.1 240 30 16 7.6 4.2 | -43.0 -45.4 250 33 17 7.4 4.1
32000 -38.9 -38.0 235 26 13 7.7 4.2 | -38.6 -37.5 240 27 14 7.5 4.1
30000 -34.2 -29.6 240 22 11 7.8 4.3 | -33.9 -29.0 240 22 11 7.9 4.3
29000 -31.9 -25.4 245 20 10 7.8 4.3 | -31.6 -24.9 240 19 10 7.9 4.3
28000 -29.6 -21.3 250 18 9 7.9 4.3 | -29.3 -20.7 240 17 9 8.0 4.4
27000 -26.4 -15.5 245 17 9 8.5 4.6 | -26.8 -16.2 240 15 8 8.3 4.6
26000 -23.8 -10.8 240 17 9 8.5 4.7 | -24.3 -11.7 245 14 7 8.3 4.6
25000 -21.2 -6.2 235 16 8 8.2 4.5 | -21.8 -7.2 245 13 7 8.5 4.7
24000 -19.3 -2.7 230 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -19.7 -3.5 245 13 7 6.6 3.6
23000 -17.5 0.5 225 15 8 6.3 3.4 | -17.7 0.1 245 13 7 6.6 3.6
22000 -15.6 3.9 220 15 7 6.4 3.5 | -15.3 4.5 240 14 7 6.7 3.7
21000 -13.7 7.3 215 13 7 6.6 3.6 | -13.3 8.1 230 12 6 6.8 3.7
20000 -11.7 10.9 210 11 6 6.7 3.6 | -11.4 11.5 215 10 5 6.9 3.8
19500 -10.7 12.7 205 10 5 6.6 3.6 | -10.4 13.3 210 10 5 6.9 3.8
19000 -9.7 14.5 200 9 5 6.9 3.8 | -9.4 15.1 200 9 5 6.9 3.8
18500 -8.6 16.5 195 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -8.3 17.1 195 8 4 6.9 3.8
18000 -7.5 18.5 195 7 4 7.2 3.9 | -7.2 19.0 190 8 4 7.1 3.9
17500 -6.4 20.5 190 7 4 7.4 4.0 | -6.0 21.2 190 7 4 7.2 4.0
17000 -5.3 22.5 185 7 3 7.4 4.1 | -4.9 23.2 185 6 3 7.3 4.0
16500 -4.2 24.4 185 7 4 7.2 4.0 | -3.8 25.2 185 6 3 7.1 3.9
16000 -3.0 26.6 180 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -2.7 27.1 185 7 3 7.2 3.9
15500 -2.0 28.4 180 9 5 7.0 3.8 | -1.6 29.1 180 7 4 7.0 3.8
15000 -0.9 30.4 175 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -0.6 30.9 180 7 4 6.9 3.8
14500 0.1 32.2 175 11 6 6.7 3.7 | 0.5 32.9 180 8 4 6.5 3.5
14000 1.1 34.0 170 12 6 6.4 3.5 | 1.4 34.5 180 9 4 6.1 3.3
13500 2.1 35.8 170 13 7 6.2 3.4 | 2.3 36.1 175 9 5 5.9 3.2
13000 3.0 37.4 170 13 7 5.7 3.1 | 3.1 37.6 175 10 5 5.4 3.0
12500 3.8 38.8 170 14 7 5.6 3.1 | 3.9 39.0 180 10 5 5.3 2.9
12000 4.6 40.3 165 14 7 5.1 2.8 | 4.7 40.5 180 10 5 4.7 2.6
11500 5.4 41.7 165 14 7 5.0 2.8 | 5.4 41.7 180 10 5 4.6 2.5
11000 6.0 42.8 165 13 7 3.6 2.0 | 6.0 42.8 180 10 5 3.4 1.9
10500 6.6 43.9 165 12 6 3.3 1.8 | 6.5 43.7 175 9 5 3.5 1.9
10250 6.8 44.2 165 12 6 1.5 0.8 | 6.7 44.1 175 9 4 2.6 1.4
10000 6.8 44.2 160 11 6 0.8 0.4 | 6.8 44.2 165 8 4 2.2 1.2
9750 6.9 44.4 155 10 5 1.1 0.6 | 7.0 44.6 160 8 4 2.2 1.2
9500 7.0 44.6 145 9 5 1.4 0.8 | 7.1 44.8 155 8 4 3.2 1.8
9250 7.1 44.8 140 8 4 1.5 0.8 | 7.4 45.3 150 8 4 4.5 2.5
9000 7.2 45.0 135 7 4 2.1 1.1 | 8.0 46.4 145 8 4 4.5 2.5
8750 7.3 45.1 130 6 3 0.0 0.0 | 8.3 46.9 140 7 4 4.0 2.2
8500 7.2 45.0 130 5 2 -1.0 -0.5 | 8.6 47.5 145 6 3 3.7 2.0
8250 7.3 45.1 130 3 2 4.0 2.2 | 8.9 48.0 150 6 3 4.5 2.5
8000 7.7 45.9 140 2 1 6.4 3.5 | 9.2 48.6 155 5 2 4.8 2.6
7750 8.2 46.8 155 2 1 7.3 4.0 | 9.6 49.3 165 4 2 5.1 2.8
7500 8.8 47.8 170 1 1 8.4 4.6 | 10.0 50.0 180 4 2 5.6 3.1
7250 9.4 48.9 195 1 1 9.4 5.2 | 10.4 50.7 195 4 2 6.0 3.3
7000 10.2 50.4 215 1 1 10.4 5.7 | 10.9 51.6 210 4 2 7.6 4.2
6750 10.9 51.6 225 2 1 9.9 5.4 | 11.6 52.9 215 4 2 9.0 4.9
6500 11.7 53.1 230 2 1 9.8 5.4 | 12.3 54.1 215 4 2 9.6 5.3
6250 12.4 54.3 235 2 1 10.6 5.8 | 12.9 55.2 220 4 2 8.2 4.5
6000 13.4 56.1 240 2 1 14.8 8.1 | 13.4 56.1 220 4 2 5.9 3.2
5750 14.7 58.5 245 3 1 21.2 11.6 | 14.0 57.2 220 4 2 12.6 6.9
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0722 MDT Saturday October 17 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, October 17, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 61.3 F/16.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 347 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11099 ft MSL (4646 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 64.0 F/18.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9873 ft MSL (3420 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 10/18....... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:12:54 / 18:26:24 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 13 min 30 sec (673 min 30 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:49:39 MDT... 44.86 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/17/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13909 ft MSL (7456 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 27831 ft MSL (21378 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 21085 ft MSL (14632 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +11.5
K index......................... -46.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.5 -84.1 265 33 17 3.2 1.8 81.5 178.8 37.5 M M
45000 -59.2 -74.6 255 45 23 4.2 2.3 67.2 152.9 31.0 M M
40000 -52.4 -62.3 255 44 23 5.5 3.0 54.5 130.1 24.7 M M
38000 -49.1 -56.4 255 38 19 5.5 3.0 50.5 122.9 22.6 M M
36000 -45.8 -50.4 250 31 16 5.5 3.0 47.2 116.9 20.9 M M
34000 -41.9 -43.4 250 27 14 6.8 3.7 44.3 111.8 19.3 M M
32000 -37.8 -36.0 245 23 12 6.8 3.7 42.0 107.7 18.1 M M
30000 -33.6 -28.5 245 17 9 7.2 3.9 39.8 103.7 16.9 M M
29000 -31.4 -24.5 250 15 7 7.2 3.9 38.9 101.9 16.3 M M
28000 -29.3 -20.7 255 12 6 7.0 3.9 38.0 100.4 15.9 M M
27000 -26.9 -16.4 245 7 4 6.1 3.4 36.2 97.2 14.7 M M
26000 -25.1 -13.2 210 4 2 6.1 3.4 34.9 94.8 13.8 M M
25000 -23.2 -9.8 150 5 2 6.4 3.5 33.7 92.6 12.9 M M
24000 -21.1 -6.0 160 5 3 7.3 4.0 32.6 90.7 12.2 M M
23000 -18.9 -2.0 170 6 3 7.3 4.0 31.8 89.2 11.6 M M
22000 -16.7 1.9 180 7 4 7.5 4.1 31.0 87.8 11.1 M M
21000 -14.4 6.1 165 7 4 7.8 4.3 30.2 86.4 10.6 M M
20000 -12.0 10.4 150 8 4 7.8 4.3 29.5 85.2 10.1 M M
19500 -10.9 12.4 145 8 4 7.8 4.3 29.2 84.6 9.9 M M
19000 -9.8 14.4 140 8 4 6.1 3.4 28.7 83.7 9.6 M M
18500 -8.9 16.0 135 7 4 6.3 3.4 28.1 82.7 9.1 M M
18000 -7.9 17.8 125 7 3 6.3 3.5 27.6 81.6 8.6 M M
17500 -7.0 19.4 125 6 3 6.3 3.5 27.0 80.6 8.1 M M
17000 -6.1 21.0 125 6 3 6.4 3.5 26.4 79.5 7.7 M M
16500 -5.1 22.8 135 5 3 6.7 3.7 25.9 78.6 7.2 M M
16000 -4.1 24.6 140 6 3 6.7 3.7 25.4 77.6 6.8 M M
15500 -3.1 26.4 145 6 3 6.5 3.6 24.8 76.7 6.4 M M
15000 -2.1 28.2 150 6 3 6.5 3.6 24.3 75.7 5.9 M M
14500 -1.2 29.8 155 7 4 6.0 3.3 23.8 74.8 5.4 M M
14000 -0.3 31.5 150 7 4 5.7 3.1 23.1 73.5 4.8 M M
13500 0.5 32.9 150 8 4 5.5 3.0 22.4 72.4 4.3 M M
13000 1.3 34.3 145 9 4 5.1 2.8 21.7 71.0 3.6 M M
12500 2.1 35.8 145 9 5 4.6 2.5 20.9 69.7 2.9 M M
12000 2.7 36.9 140 9 5 3.4 1.9 20.0 68.0 2.0 M M
11500 3.2 37.8 135 10 5 3.2 1.8 19.0 66.2 1.1 M M
11000 3.8 38.8 130 10 5 3.1 1.7 17.3 63.2 -0.5 335 1.7
10500 4.1 39.4 130 9 5 1.0 0.6 16.2 61.1 -1.6 311 1.6
10250 4.2 39.6 125 9 4 1.0 0.5 15.5 59.9 -2.3 302 1.5
10000 4.3 39.7 125 8 4 1.8 1.0 14.8 58.7 -2.9 292 1.5
9750 4.4 39.9 125 7 4 0.2 0.1 14.2 57.5 -3.6 282 1.4
9500 4.3 39.7 120 7 3 -1.6 -0.9 13.3 56.0 -4.4 278 1.4
9250 4.1 39.4 120 6 3 -1.2 -0.7 12.5 54.4 -5.3 274 1.4
9000 4.0 39.2 120 6 3 -0.8 -0.4 11.6 53.0 -6.2 270 1.4
8750 3.9 39.0 115 5 2 -1.8 -1.0 10.8 51.5 -7.0 266 1.4
8500 3.7 38.7 120 5 2 -2.8 -1.5 9.9 49.7 -8.0 265 1.3
8250 3.5 38.3 125 5 2 -2.6 -1.4 8.9 48.1 -9.0 264 1.3
8000 3.3 37.9 125 5 2 -3.2 -1.8 8.0 46.3 -9.9 264 1.3
7750 3.0 37.4 130 4 2 -2.2 -1.2 7.0 44.6 -10.9 263 1.3
7500 2.9 37.2 130 5 2 -1.6 -0.9 6.1 43.0 -11.8 259 1.3
7250 2.8 37.0 135 5 2 -0.6 -0.3 5.3 41.5 -12.7 256 1.3
7000 2.7 36.9 135 4 2 -3.9 -2.1 4.5 40.0 -13.6 251 1.3
6750 2.0 35.6 130 3 2 -13.2 -7.3 3.1 37.5 -15.0 264 1.3
6500 1.3 34.3 125 3 1 4.4 2.4 1.7 35.0 -16.4 277 1.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/17/2026 at 0900 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -48.8 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -48.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 255 36 19 3.4 1.9 | -63.6 -82.5 255 43 22 3.6 2.0
45000 -58.0 -72.4 250 51 26 3.7 2.0 | -57.9 -72.2 255 57 29 3.7 2.0
40000 -52.3 -62.1 245 50 26 5.0 2.7 | -52.3 -62.1 245 58 30 4.2 2.3
38000 -49.3 -56.7 245 41 21 5.0 2.7 | -49.7 -57.5 240 45 23 4.2 2.3
36000 -46.3 -51.3 245 32 17 5.0 2.7 | -47.2 -53.0 235 32 17 4.3 2.3
34000 -42.6 -44.7 245 28 14 6.6 3.6 | -43.3 -45.9 245 27 14 7.2 3.9
32000 -38.6 -37.5 255 25 13 6.6 3.6 | -39.0 -38.2 255 26 13 7.2 4.0
30000 -33.9 -29.0 255 21 11 8.4 4.6 | -34.1 -29.4 260 21 11 8.6 4.7
29000 -30.8 -23.4 260 18 9 8.4 4.6 | -30.8 -23.4 260 18 9 8.6 4.7
28000 -28.3 -18.9 260 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -28.3 -18.9 260 15 8 6.9 3.8
27000 -26.4 -15.5 250 12 6 6.4 3.5 | -26.4 -15.5 255 14 7 6.3 3.4
26000 -24.5 -12.1 235 10 5 6.4 3.5 | -24.5 -12.1 245 14 7 6.3 3.4
25000 -22.5 -8.5 210 10 5 6.4 3.5 | -22.7 -8.9 235 13 7 6.4 3.5
24000 -20.6 -5.1 200 8 4 6.4 3.5 | -20.5 -4.9 225 12 6 7.3 4.0
23000 -18.7 -1.7 180 6 3 6.4 3.5 | -18.3 -0.9 215 12 6 7.3 4.0
22000 -16.7 1.9 155 5 3 6.8 3.7 | -16.2 2.8 205 12 6 7.2 3.9
21000 -14.6 5.7 165 6 3 7.3 4.0 | -14.0 6.8 200 9 5 7.1 3.9
20000 -12.4 9.7 175 6 3 7.3 4.0 | -11.9 10.6 190 7 4 7.1 3.9
19500 -11.3 11.7 180 7 3 7.3 4.0 | -10.8 12.6 185 6 3 7.1 3.9
19000 -10.1 13.8 180 7 3 7.6 4.2 | -9.8 14.4 180 5 3 6.9 3.8
18500 -9.0 15.8 175 7 3 7.6 4.2 | -8.7 16.3 185 5 3 6.9 3.8
18000 -7.9 17.8 170 7 4 7.1 3.9 | -7.7 18.1 185 5 3 6.9 3.8
17500 -6.8 19.8 165 6 3 6.8 3.7 | -6.7 19.9 180 6 3 6.9 3.8
17000 -5.8 21.6 160 6 3 6.7 3.7 | -5.6 21.9 180 6 3 6.9 3.8
16500 -4.8 23.4 160 6 3 6.5 3.6 | -4.6 23.7 175 6 3 6.5 3.6
16000 -3.9 25.0 160 5 3 6.6 3.6 | -3.6 25.5 175 6 3 6.5 3.6
15500 -2.9 26.8 160 5 3 6.5 3.6 | -2.7 27.1 175 6 3 6.5 3.6
15000 -1.9 28.6 160 6 3 6.5 3.6 | -1.7 28.9 170 6 3 6.5 3.6
14500 -1.0 30.2 160 6 3 6.2 3.4 | -0.7 30.7 170 6 3 6.3 3.4
14000 -0.1 31.8 160 7 3 6.0 3.3 | 0.2 32.4 170 7 4 6.1 3.4
13500 0.8 33.4 160 7 4 5.9 3.2 | 1.1 34.0 170 8 4 6.0 3.3
13000 1.7 35.1 160 8 4 5.7 3.1 | 2.0 35.6 170 8 4 5.8 3.2
12500 2.6 36.7 160 9 5 5.4 3.0 | 2.9 37.2 170 9 5 5.7 3.1
12000 3.3 37.9 160 10 5 4.8 2.6 | 4.0 39.2 170 10 5 5.2 2.8
11500 4.3 39.7 155 10 5 3.3 1.8 | 4.8 40.6 170 11 6 4.5 2.5
11000 4.9 40.8 155 10 5 4.7 2.6 | 5.4 41.7 170 11 6 4.3 2.4
10500 5.4 41.7 150 10 5 1.2 0.7 | 6.0 42.8 165 11 6 3.0 1.7
10250 5.5 41.9 150 9 5 1.7 1.0 | 6.2 43.2 165 11 5 2.9 1.6
10000 5.7 42.3 145 9 4 3.5 1.9 | 6.5 43.7 165 10 5 3.5 1.9
9750 5.9 42.6 145 8 4 0.9 0.5 | 6.7 44.1 165 10 5 2.3 1.3
9500 5.8 42.4 140 7 4 -1.9 -1.0 | 6.8 44.2 165 9 4 0.4 0.2
9250 5.7 42.3 135 6 3 -1.4 -0.8 | 6.8 44.2 160 8 4 0.9 0.5
9000 5.6 42.1 130 6 3 -1.1 -0.6 | 6.9 44.4 160 7 3 3.1 1.7
8750 5.4 41.7 120 5 2 -2.5 -1.4 | 7.1 44.8 160 5 3 0.7 0.4
8500 5.1 41.2 115 4 2 -3.6 -2.0 | 7.0 44.6 155 4 2 -1.9 -1.0
8250 4.9 40.8 100 4 2 -3.3 -1.8 | 6.8 44.2 150 3 2 -1.0 -0.5
8000 4.6 40.3 090 3 2 -2.4 -1.3 | 6.8 44.2 140 2 1 3.6 2.0
7750 4.4 39.9 080 3 2 -1.8 -1.0 | 7.3 45.1 145 1 1 9.1 5.0
7500 4.3 39.7 075 3 1 -1.3 -0.7 | 8.0 46.4 145 1 1 10.0 5.5
7250 4.1 39.4 070 3 1 -3.6 -2.0 | 8.8 47.8 150 1 1 8.7 4.8
7000 3.9 39.0 060 2 1 1.4 0.8 | 9.4 48.9 150 1 0 11.9 6.6
6750 4.5 40.1 055 2 1 16.6 9.1 | 10.7 51.3 180 1 0 20.3 11.1
6500 5.2 41.4 045 1 1 -12.4 -6.8 | 11.9 53.4 220 1 0 5.5 3.0
10/17/2026 at 1500 MDT | 10/17/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.6
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -42.6 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -37.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 255 46 24 4.0 2.2 | -62.7 -80.9 265 40 21 4.4 2.4
45000 -57.2 -71.0 255 61 31 3.8 2.1 | -56.3 -69.3 265 53 27 3.4 1.9
40000 -51.3 -60.3 245 66 34 2.3 1.2 | -51.2 -60.2 255 59 30 2.3 1.3
38000 -49.9 -57.8 245 49 25 2.4 1.3 | -49.8 -57.6 255 46 24 2.4 1.3
36000 -48.5 -55.3 235 33 17 2.5 1.4 | -48.4 -55.1 245 33 17 2.6 1.4
34000 -44.4 -47.9 235 25 13 8.2 4.5 | -44.3 -47.7 245 28 14 8.4 4.6
32000 -39.5 -39.1 245 21 11 8.2 4.5 | -39.3 -38.7 245 25 13 8.4 4.6
30000 -34.5 -30.1 245 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -34.4 -29.9 250 21 11 8.2 4.5
29000 -32.0 -25.6 245 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -31.3 -24.3 255 19 10 8.2 4.5
28000 -28.8 -19.8 245 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -28.8 -19.8 255 18 9 8.0 4.4
27000 -26.6 -15.9 240 17 9 7.4 4.1 | -26.5 -15.7 250 17 9 7.8 4.3
26000 -24.3 -11.7 235 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -24.1 -11.4 250 17 9 7.9 4.3
25000 -22.1 -7.8 230 16 8 7.4 4.0 | -21.7 -7.1 245 16 8 7.8 4.3
24000 -20.1 -4.2 230 15 8 6.7 3.7 | -19.7 -3.5 245 15 8 6.4 3.5
23000 -18.1 -0.6 230 13 7 6.8 3.7 | -17.8 -0.0 245 13 7 6.4 3.5
22000 -16.1 3.0 225 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -15.9 3.4 245 12 6 6.7 3.6
21000 -13.9 7.0 225 11 6 7.1 3.9 | -13.8 7.2 240 11 5 7.4 4.0
20000 -11.8 10.8 220 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -11.6 11.1 235 10 5 7.4 4.1
19500 -10.7 12.7 215 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -10.5 13.1 230 10 5 7.4 4.1
19000 -9.6 14.7 210 9 4 7.3 4.0 | -9.4 15.1 225 9 5 7.0 3.8
18500 -8.5 16.7 210 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -8.3 17.1 215 9 5 7.1 3.9
18000 -7.4 18.7 205 7 4 6.9 3.8 | -7.2 19.0 210 9 4 6.9 3.8
17500 -6.4 20.5 200 7 4 6.4 3.5 | -6.2 20.8 205 8 4 6.5 3.6
17000 -5.5 22.1 200 7 4 6.3 3.5 | -5.2 22.6 205 8 4 6.6 3.6
16500 -4.5 23.9 195 7 4 6.3 3.4 | -4.2 24.4 200 8 4 6.1 3.3
16000 -3.6 25.5 190 7 4 6.3 3.4 | -3.3 26.1 200 9 4 6.1 3.4
15500 -2.6 27.3 190 7 4 6.5 3.6 | -2.3 27.9 200 9 4 6.4 3.5
15000 -1.6 29.1 190 7 4 6.6 3.6 | -1.4 29.5 200 8 4 6.4 3.5
14500 -0.6 30.9 190 7 4 6.7 3.7 | -0.4 31.3 200 8 4 6.5 3.5
14000 0.4 32.7 190 8 4 6.8 3.7 | 0.6 33.1 200 8 4 6.5 3.6
13500 1.4 34.5 190 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 1.6 34.9 200 7 4 6.5 3.6
13000 2.4 36.3 185 8 4 6.5 3.6 | 2.5 36.5 200 6 3 6.7 3.7
12500 3.4 38.1 185 8 4 6.5 3.6 | 4.0 39.2 205 6 3 6.6 3.6
12000 4.3 39.7 185 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 5.0 41.0 200 5 3 6.5 3.6
11500 5.5 41.9 180 8 4 4.6 2.5 | 6.0 42.8 200 5 3 5.9 3.3
11000 6.2 43.2 175 8 4 4.8 2.6 | 6.8 44.2 195 5 3 5.3 2.9
10500 6.8 44.2 175 8 4 1.1 0.6 | 7.5 45.5 190 5 2 2.0 1.1
10250 6.8 44.2 175 7 4 1.1 0.6 | 7.5 45.5 185 5 3 1.5 0.8
10000 7.0 44.6 175 7 3 2.9 1.6 | 7.8 46.0 185 5 3 3.8 2.1
9750 7.2 45.0 170 6 3 2.6 1.4 | 8.0 46.4 185 5 3 3.2 1.8
9500 7.3 45.1 170 6 3 2.4 1.3 | 8.3 46.9 180 5 3 3.8 2.1
9250 7.5 45.5 170 5 3 4.0 2.2 | 8.5 47.3 180 5 3 3.8 2.1
9000 7.9 46.2 175 5 3 5.8 3.2 | 8.8 47.8 180 6 3 3.1 1.7
8750 8.3 46.9 180 5 3 7.2 4.0 | 9.0 48.2 180 6 3 4.4 2.4
8500 9.0 48.2 180 5 3 9.0 4.9 | 9.4 48.9 180 6 3 6.8 3.7
8250 9.6 49.3 180 5 3 9.1 5.0 | 10.0 50.0 185 6 3 7.4 4.1
8000 10.3 50.5 185 5 3 9.2 5.1 | 10.5 50.9 190 6 3 6.6 3.6
7750 11.0 51.8 185 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 11.0 51.8 185 6 3 7.5 4.1
7500 11.8 53.2 190 5 3 10.6 5.8 | 11.6 52.9 190 6 3 8.5 4.7
7250 12.6 54.7 190 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 12.2 54.0 195 6 3 8.8 4.8
7000 13.3 55.9 190 5 2 11.5 6.3 | 12.8 55.0 200 6 3 6.3 3.4
6750 14.4 57.9 195 5 2 16.8 9.2 | 13.0 55.4 200 6 3 -0.6 -0.3
6500 15.7 60.3 200 4 2 15.8 8.7 | 12.9 55.2 205 5 3 4.4 2.4
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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