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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0721 MDT Sunday October 12 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, October 12, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 67.2 F/19.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 235 ft/min (1.2 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11751 ft MSL (5428 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 70.0 F/21.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8800 ft MSL (2477 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 10/13....... Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:07:57 / 18:32:43 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 24 min 46 sec (684 min 46 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:20 MDT... 47.25 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/12/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14272 ft MSL (7949 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12683 ft MSL (6360 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12328 ft MSL (6005 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.0
K index......................... +15.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 245 47 24 4.8 2.7 72.2 162.0 30.3 M M
45000 -60.4 -76.7 245 67 34 7.2 3.9 62.8 145.0 26.4 M M
40000 -49.7 -57.5 240 75 38 7.0 3.9 57.2 135.0 24.5 M M
38000 -45.5 -49.9 235 75 38 7.1 3.9 54.6 130.2 23.3 M M
36000 -40.7 -41.3 235 75 39 6.9 3.8 52.4 126.2 22.3 M M
34000 -35.9 -32.6 235 75 39 8.2 4.5 50.7 123.3 21.7 M M
32000 -31.0 -23.8 235 74 38 8.1 4.4 49.6 121.2 21.4 M M
30000 -26.9 -16.4 235 72 37 6.3 3.5 47.1 116.9 20.0 M M
29000 -25.0 -13.0 235 71 37 6.3 3.5 45.8 114.5 19.2 M M
28000 -23.1 -9.6 240 70 36 6.4 3.5 44.7 112.4 18.5 M M
27000 -21.5 -6.7 240 67 34 5.3 2.9 43.0 109.4 17.4 M M
26000 -19.8 -3.6 240 63 32 5.3 2.9 41.3 106.4 16.3 M M
25000 -18.2 -0.8 240 59 30 5.4 2.9 39.8 103.6 15.2 M M
24000 -16.6 2.1 245 55 28 5.7 3.1 38.2 100.8 14.1 M M
23000 -14.9 5.2 245 50 26 5.7 3.1 36.7 98.0 13.0 M M
22000 -13.2 8.2 245 45 23 5.7 3.1 35.3 95.5 11.9 M M
21000 -11.4 11.5 245 43 22 6.2 3.4 33.9 93.1 10.9 M M
20000 -9.1 15.6 245 41 21 6.3 3.5 32.4 90.3 9.7 M M
19500 -8.1 17.4 250 40 21 6.4 3.5 31.9 89.3 9.2 M M
19000 -7.3 18.9 250 40 21 5.4 3.0 31.3 88.3 8.7 M M
18500 -6.6 20.1 250 39 20 5.0 2.8 30.4 86.8 8.0 M M
18000 -5.9 21.4 250 39 20 5.1 2.8 29.6 85.4 7.3 M M
17500 -5.1 22.8 250 39 20 5.3 2.9 28.9 84.0 6.6 M M
17000 -4.4 24.1 250 38 20 5.3 2.9 28.1 82.6 5.9 M M
16500 -3.7 25.3 255 38 20 5.5 3.0 27.4 81.3 5.2 M M
16000 -2.9 26.8 255 37 19 5.6 3.0 26.7 80.0 4.5 M M
15500 -2.1 28.2 255 37 19 5.7 3.1 26.0 78.8 3.9 M M
15000 -1.2 29.8 260 36 19 6.1 3.4 25.4 77.6 3.3 M M
14500 -0.3 31.5 260 36 18 6.1 3.4 24.8 76.6 2.7 M M
14000 0.6 33.1 260 35 18 6.7 3.7 24.2 75.6 2.2 M M
13500 1.5 34.7 260 34 18 6.6 3.6 23.7 74.7 1.7 M M
13000 2.5 36.5 260 34 17 6.6 3.6 23.2 73.8 1.2 M M
12500 3.5 38.3 260 33 17 6.6 3.6 22.7 72.9 0.7 M M
12000 4.4 39.9 265 32 16 6.9 3.8 22.2 72.0 0.2 M M
11500 5.4 41.7 265 31 16 6.9 3.8 21.8 71.2 -0.2 412 2.1
11000 6.4 43.5 265 31 16 6.7 3.7 21.3 70.3 -0.8 369 1.9
10500 7.3 45.1 265 30 15 6.8 3.7 20.8 69.5 -1.3 326 1.7
10250 7.8 46.0 265 30 15 7.1 3.9 20.6 69.1 -1.6 305 1.5
10000 8.3 46.9 265 29 15 7.0 3.8 20.4 68.7 -1.8 283 1.4
9750 8.7 47.7 265 29 15 6.7 3.7 20.2 68.3 -2.1 261 1.3
9500 9.2 48.6 265 28 15 6.4 3.5 19.9 67.9 -2.4 240 1.2
9250 9.6 49.3 270 28 14 7.9 4.3 19.7 67.5 -2.6 219 1.1
9000 10.2 50.4 270 28 14 8.1 4.4 19.6 67.3 -2.8 194 1.0
8750 10.7 51.3 270 27 14 6.7 3.7 19.4 66.9 -3.0 172 0.9
8500 11.2 52.2 270 26 13 6.7 3.7 19.2 66.5 -3.3 150 0.8
8250 11.7 53.1 270 26 13 7.7 4.2 19.0 66.1 -3.5 128 0.6
8000 12.3 54.1 270 25 13 8.7 4.7 18.9 66.0 -3.6 102 0.5
7750 12.9 55.2 270 23 12 7.3 4.0 18.7 65.7 -3.8 78 0.4
7500 13.4 56.1 270 22 11 7.1 3.9 18.5 65.4 -4.1 56 0.3
7250 13.8 56.8 270 21 11 4.3 2.4 18.3 64.9 -4.3 35 0.2
7000 13.9 57.0 270 18 9 1.8 1.0 17.7 63.9 -4.9 23 0.1
6750 14.0 57.2 265 15 8 1.3 0.7 17.1 62.8 -5.6 13 0.1
6500 13.9 57.0 265 11 6 -6.2 -3.4 16.3 61.3 -6.5 11 0.1
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/12/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +57.2 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +11.5 LI... +0.9
CINH... -12.8 K Index... +19.8 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... +20.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 235 52 27 6.3 3.5 | -68.3 -90.9 235 54 28 5.6 3.1
45000 -59.3 -74.7 245 69 35 6.1 3.4 | -59.7 -75.5 235 69 36 6.1 3.3
40000 -50.0 -58.0 240 83 43 7.2 4.0 | -50.4 -58.7 235 88 45 7.4 4.1
38000 -45.7 -50.3 235 81 42 7.2 4.0 | -45.9 -50.6 235 86 44 7.4 4.1
36000 -40.8 -41.4 230 80 41 7.2 3.9 | -40.9 -41.6 230 84 43 7.4 4.0
34000 -36.2 -33.2 230 78 40 7.8 4.3 | -36.1 -33.0 230 83 43 8.2 4.5
32000 -31.5 -24.7 230 76 39 7.8 4.3 | -31.2 -24.2 230 81 42 8.2 4.5
30000 -27.0 -16.6 230 76 39 7.3 4.0 | -27.1 -16.8 235 77 39 6.6 3.6
29000 -24.8 -12.6 230 76 39 7.3 4.0 | -25.1 -13.2 235 74 38 6.6 3.6
28000 -22.7 -8.9 235 76 39 7.4 4.1 | -23.1 -9.6 235 72 37 6.6 3.6
27000 -21.0 -5.8 235 71 37 5.0 2.7 | -21.6 -6.9 240 66 34 4.9 2.7
26000 -19.5 -3.1 240 66 34 5.0 2.7 | -20.1 -4.2 240 60 31 4.9 2.7
25000 -18.0 -0.4 240 61 32 5.0 2.7 | -18.6 -1.5 245 54 28 4.9 2.7
24000 -16.4 2.5 245 57 29 5.7 3.1 | -17.0 1.4 250 49 25 6.0 3.3
23000 -14.7 5.5 245 53 27 5.7 3.1 | -15.2 4.6 250 46 24 6.0 3.3
22000 -13.0 8.6 245 49 25 5.7 3.1 | -13.4 7.9 250 43 22 6.0 3.3
21000 -11.4 11.5 245 46 24 4.8 2.6 | -11.6 11.1 250 41 21 6.4 3.5
20000 -9.7 14.5 245 42 22 4.9 2.7 | -9.7 14.5 250 39 20 6.4 3.5
19500 -9.0 15.8 250 40 21 4.9 2.7 | -8.3 17.1 250 38 19 6.4 3.5
19000 -8.3 17.1 250 39 20 5.1 2.8 | -7.4 18.7 250 37 19 6.2 3.4
18500 -7.6 18.3 250 38 20 5.2 2.9 | -6.5 20.3 245 36 18 6.1 3.4
18000 -6.9 19.6 250 38 19 5.3 2.9 | -5.6 21.9 245 35 18 6.1 3.4
17500 -6.1 21.0 250 37 19 5.9 3.3 | -4.8 23.4 245 34 17 5.7 3.1
17000 -5.2 22.6 250 37 19 5.9 3.3 | -3.9 25.0 245 33 17 5.8 3.2
16500 -4.4 24.1 255 37 19 6.3 3.4 | -3.1 26.4 245 32 16 5.5 3.0
16000 -3.5 25.7 255 36 18 6.4 3.5 | -2.4 27.7 245 31 16 5.4 3.0
15500 -2.5 27.5 260 35 18 6.4 3.5 | -1.6 29.1 245 30 16 5.3 2.9
15000 -1.6 29.1 260 34 17 6.4 3.5 | -0.9 30.4 245 29 15 4.9 2.7
14500 -0.7 30.7 260 32 17 6.4 3.5 | -0.2 31.6 245 29 15 4.9 2.7
14000 0.2 32.4 265 31 16 6.0 3.3 | 0.5 32.9 250 28 14 5.7 3.1
13500 1.1 34.0 265 29 15 6.1 3.3 | 1.4 34.5 250 27 14 5.7 3.1
13000 1.9 35.4 265 28 15 6.3 3.5 | 2.1 35.8 255 26 13 4.2 2.3
12500 2.8 37.0 265 27 14 6.4 3.5 | 2.7 36.9 260 24 12 4.3 2.3
12000 3.7 38.7 270 27 14 6.3 3.5 | 3.2 37.8 265 23 12 4.7 2.6
11500 4.6 40.3 270 26 13 6.2 3.4 | 3.8 38.8 270 21 11 4.8 2.6
11000 5.5 41.9 270 26 13 6.5 3.5 | 4.7 40.5 270 20 10 8.6 4.7
10500 6.4 43.5 270 26 13 7.0 3.8 | 6.1 43.0 275 19 10 9.0 4.9
10250 6.9 44.4 275 26 13 6.7 3.7 | 6.7 44.1 275 19 10 9.4 5.2
10000 7.4 45.3 275 26 13 6.9 3.8 | 7.4 45.3 275 19 10 9.3 5.1
9750 7.9 46.2 275 26 13 7.5 4.1 | 8.1 46.6 275 19 10 9.1 5.0
9500 8.4 47.1 275 26 13 7.1 3.9 | 8.8 47.8 275 19 10 8.4 4.6
9250 8.9 48.0 275 25 13 8.2 4.5 | 9.4 48.9 275 19 10 11.2 6.2
9000 9.6 49.3 275 25 13 8.4 4.6 | 10.3 50.5 275 19 10 10.9 6.0
8750 10.1 50.2 275 24 13 7.4 4.1 | 11.0 51.8 275 18 10 8.0 4.4
8500 10.6 51.1 275 24 12 7.8 4.3 | 11.6 52.9 275 18 9 8.4 4.6
8250 11.2 52.2 275 23 12 7.0 3.9 | 12.3 54.1 275 18 9 9.7 5.3
8000 11.6 52.9 275 22 11 6.4 3.5 | 13.0 55.4 275 18 9 10.9 6.0
7750 12.1 53.8 275 20 10 6.7 3.7 | 13.8 56.8 275 18 9 9.5 5.2
7500 12.6 54.7 275 19 10 6.8 3.7 | 14.5 58.1 275 18 9 9.2 5.1
7250 13.1 55.6 275 17 9 8.2 4.5 | 15.2 59.4 275 18 9 10.3 5.7
7000 13.8 56.8 275 16 8 9.2 5.1 | 16.0 60.8 275 18 9 11.4 6.3
6750 14.4 57.9 275 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 16.8 62.2 275 17 9 10.1 5.5
6500 15.1 59.2 275 14 7 11.0 6.0 | 17.7 63.9 275 16 8 14.3 7.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/12/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +4.6 LI... +1.1 | CAPE... +5.2 LI... +1.0
CINH... -0.8 K Index... +18.7 | CINH... -22.9 K Index... +21.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.9 -92.0 240 59 30 5.4 3.0 | -69.6 -93.3 240 70 36 4.9 2.7
45000 -60.1 -76.2 235 70 36 5.8 3.2 | -61.4 -78.5 240 80 41 6.1 3.4
40000 -51.1 -60.0 230 90 46 8.1 4.4 | -51.9 -61.4 225 84 43 8.5 4.7
38000 -46.2 -51.2 230 88 46 8.1 4.5 | -46.8 -52.2 225 80 41 8.6 4.7
36000 -41.4 -42.5 230 87 45 8.1 4.5 | -41.7 -43.1 220 76 39 8.6 4.7
34000 -36.8 -34.2 230 84 43 7.6 4.2 | -36.9 -34.4 225 75 39 7.8 4.3
32000 -31.7 -25.1 230 80 41 7.6 4.2 | -31.7 -25.1 230 77 39 7.9 4.3
30000 -27.8 -18.0 230 74 38 6.3 3.4 | -27.8 -18.0 235 71 36 6.1 3.3
29000 -26.0 -14.8 235 71 37 6.3 3.5 | -26.0 -14.8 235 67 34 6.1 3.3
28000 -24.1 -11.4 235 69 35 6.3 3.4 | -24.1 -11.4 235 63 32 6.1 3.3
27000 -22.4 -8.3 240 62 32 5.7 3.2 | -22.4 -8.3 240 57 29 6.0 3.3
26000 -20.6 -5.1 240 55 28 5.8 3.2 | -20.6 -5.1 240 51 26 6.0 3.3
25000 -18.9 -2.0 245 48 25 5.8 3.2 | -18.8 -1.8 245 45 23 6.0 3.3
24000 -17.1 1.2 245 42 22 6.0 3.3 | -17.1 1.2 245 40 20 6.1 3.4
23000 -15.3 4.5 250 38 19 6.0 3.3 | -15.3 4.5 245 34 17 6.1 3.4
22000 -13.6 7.5 250 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -13.5 7.7 250 28 14 6.1 3.4
21000 -11.6 11.1 250 31 16 6.9 3.8 | -11.6 11.1 250 25 13 6.6 3.6
20000 -9.6 14.7 255 30 16 7.0 3.8 | -9.6 14.7 255 25 13 6.6 3.6
19500 -8.6 16.5 255 30 16 7.0 3.8 | -8.6 16.5 255 25 13 6.6 3.6
19000 -7.5 18.5 255 30 15 6.9 3.8 | -7.6 18.3 260 25 13 6.5 3.6
18500 -6.5 20.3 255 30 15 6.6 3.6 | -6.7 19.9 260 24 13 6.1 3.4
18000 -5.1 22.8 255 30 16 6.6 3.6 | -5.8 21.6 260 24 12 6.2 3.4
17500 -4.1 24.6 255 30 16 6.5 3.5 | -4.4 24.1 255 23 12 6.4 3.5
17000 -3.2 26.2 255 30 15 6.5 3.6 | -3.5 25.7 255 23 12 6.6 3.6
16500 -2.3 27.9 255 30 15 5.5 3.0 | -2.7 27.1 255 23 12 4.3 2.4
16000 -1.5 29.3 255 29 15 5.2 2.9 | -2.2 28.0 255 23 12 3.9 2.2
15500 -0.8 30.6 255 28 15 4.9 2.7 | -1.6 29.1 255 22 12 3.8 2.1
15000 -0.2 31.6 255 28 14 4.3 2.4 | -1.2 29.8 255 22 11 3.7 2.0
14500 0.3 32.5 250 27 14 4.4 2.4 | -0.7 30.7 255 22 11 3.9 2.2
14000 0.8 33.4 250 26 13 3.5 1.9 | 0.2 32.4 255 21 11 8.4 4.6
13500 1.3 34.3 255 24 13 3.5 1.9 | 1.3 34.3 250 20 10 8.1 4.5
13000 1.8 35.2 255 22 11 5.1 2.8 | 2.5 36.5 250 19 10 7.8 4.3
12500 2.5 36.5 260 19 10 4.8 2.6 | 3.6 38.5 250 18 9 7.9 4.3
12000 3.4 38.1 265 17 9 8.5 4.7 | 4.7 40.5 250 16 8 7.4 4.0
11500 4.7 40.5 265 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 5.8 42.4 255 14 7 7.5 4.1
11000 6.1 43.0 265 16 8 9.6 5.2 | 6.9 44.4 260 12 6 8.0 4.4
10500 7.5 45.5 265 15 8 9.4 5.2 | 8.1 46.6 260 11 6 8.0 4.4
10250 8.2 46.8 265 15 8 9.2 5.1 | 8.7 47.7 265 10 5 8.1 4.4
10000 8.9 48.0 270 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 9.3 48.7 265 10 5 8.4 4.6
9750 9.6 49.3 270 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 10.0 50.0 265 10 5 8.7 4.8
9500 10.4 50.7 270 15 8 9.2 5.0 | 10.6 51.1 265 9 5 8.3 4.6
9250 11.1 52.0 270 15 8 10.9 6.0 | 11.2 52.2 265 9 5 9.5 5.2
9000 11.9 53.4 270 15 8 10.7 5.9 | 12.0 53.6 265 9 5 9.7 5.3
8750 12.6 54.7 270 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 12.6 54.7 260 9 5 8.7 4.8
8500 13.3 55.9 270 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 13.3 55.9 260 9 5 8.9 4.9
8250 14.0 57.2 270 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 14.0 57.2 260 9 5 8.9 4.9
8000 14.8 58.6 270 15 8 10.1 5.5 | 14.6 58.3 260 10 5 9.2 5.0
7750 15.5 59.9 270 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 15.3 59.5 255 10 5 9.4 5.2
7500 16.2 61.2 270 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 16.0 60.8 255 10 5 9.4 5.2
7250 16.9 62.4 270 15 8 10.1 5.5 | 16.7 62.1 255 10 5 9.8 5.4
7000 17.7 63.9 270 15 8 10.6 5.8 | 17.5 63.5 250 10 5 10.1 5.5
6750 18.5 65.3 270 14 7 10.5 5.8 | 18.2 64.8 250 10 5 9.5 5.2
6500 19.4 66.9 270 14 7 14.5 8.0 | 18.8 65.8 250 9 5 7.9 4.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0722 MDT Sunday October 12 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, October 12, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 68.8 F/20.4 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 264 ft/min (1.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11561 ft MSL (5893 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 72.0 F/22.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1300 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7816 ft MSL (2148 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 10/13....... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:10:29 / 18:35:10 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 24 min 41 sec (684 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:52:49 MDT... 47.22 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/12/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13964 ft MSL (8296 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11706 ft MSL (6038 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11663 ft MSL (5995 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.2
K index......................... +22.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 240 53 27 4.6 2.5 74.8 166.6 30.9 M M
45000 -60.7 -77.3 245 76 39 7.1 3.9 65.0 148.9 26.9 M M
40000 -49.9 -57.8 240 81 41 7.1 3.9 59.3 138.8 24.9 M M
38000 -45.2 -49.4 235 80 41 7.1 3.9 56.4 133.6 23.7 M M
36000 -40.9 -41.6 230 80 41 7.0 3.9 54.5 130.2 22.9 M M
34000 -36.0 -32.8 230 80 41 8.3 4.6 53.0 127.4 22.4 M M
32000 -31.0 -23.8 235 80 41 8.3 4.5 52.0 125.5 22.2 M M
30000 -27.0 -16.6 235 78 40 6.2 3.4 49.5 121.2 20.9 M M
29000 -25.1 -13.2 235 77 39 6.2 3.4 48.2 118.7 20.0 M M
28000 -23.3 -9.9 240 75 39 6.4 3.5 46.9 116.5 19.3 M M
27000 -21.9 -7.4 240 70 36 4.0 2.2 44.9 112.9 17.9 M M
26000 -20.7 -5.3 240 64 33 4.0 2.2 42.7 108.8 16.3 M M
25000 -19.5 -3.1 245 58 30 4.0 2.2 40.6 105.1 14.8 M M
24000 -18.0 -0.4 245 53 27 6.6 3.6 38.9 102.0 13.6 M M
23000 -15.6 3.9 250 50 26 6.5 3.6 37.4 99.2 12.5 M M
22000 -13.6 7.5 250 47 24 6.6 3.6 36.3 97.3 11.8 M M
21000 -11.8 10.8 250 45 23 5.7 3.1 34.9 94.8 10.7 M M
20000 -10.2 13.6 250 43 22 5.7 3.2 33.4 92.2 9.6 M M
19500 -9.3 15.3 250 42 21 5.8 3.2 32.8 91.0 9.0 M M
19000 -8.5 16.7 250 41 21 5.2 2.8 32.2 89.9 8.5 M M
18500 -7.9 17.8 250 40 20 4.6 2.5 31.2 88.2 7.7 M M
18000 -7.3 18.9 250 39 20 4.6 2.5 30.4 86.7 6.8 M M
17500 -6.6 20.1 255 38 20 5.9 3.2 29.6 85.3 6.1 M M
17000 -5.8 21.6 255 38 19 5.9 3.2 28.9 84.1 5.5 M M
16500 -4.9 23.2 255 37 19 6.2 3.4 28.3 82.9 4.9 M M
16000 -4.0 24.8 255 36 19 6.5 3.6 27.7 81.9 4.4 M M
15500 -3.1 26.4 255 35 18 6.6 3.6 27.2 81.0 3.9 M M
15000 -2.1 28.2 260 35 18 6.7 3.7 26.7 80.0 3.4 M M
14500 -1.1 30.0 260 34 17 6.7 3.7 26.2 79.2 3.0 M M
14000 -0.1 31.8 260 32 17 6.8 3.7 25.7 78.3 2.5 M M
13500 0.9 33.6 260 31 16 6.8 3.7 25.2 77.4 2.0 M M
13000 1.8 35.2 260 30 15 6.6 3.6 24.7 76.5 1.6 M M
12500 2.8 37.0 260 28 15 6.6 3.6 24.2 75.6 1.0 M M
12000 3.7 38.7 260 27 14 6.7 3.7 23.7 74.7 0.5 M M
11500 4.6 40.3 260 26 13 6.8 3.7 23.3 73.9 0.0 M M
11000 5.6 42.1 260 25 13 7.0 3.8 22.8 73.0 -0.5 421 2.1
10500 6.6 43.9 260 25 13 7.2 3.9 22.4 72.3 -0.9 377 1.9
10250 7.1 44.8 260 24 13 7.1 3.9 22.2 71.9 -1.2 354 1.8
10000 7.6 45.7 260 24 12 7.6 4.2 22.0 71.6 -1.4 332 1.7
9750 8.1 46.6 265 24 12 7.9 4.3 21.8 71.3 -1.6 308 1.6
9500 8.7 47.7 265 24 12 7.8 4.3 21.7 71.0 -1.8 284 1.4
9250 9.3 48.7 265 24 12 7.8 4.3 21.5 70.8 -1.9 260 1.3
9000 9.8 49.6 265 24 12 8.0 4.4 21.4 70.5 -2.1 236 1.2
8750 10.4 50.7 265 24 12 8.1 4.5 21.3 70.3 -2.3 211 1.1
8500 11.0 51.8 265 24 12 8.2 4.5 21.1 70.1 -2.4 186 0.9
8250 12.1 53.8 265 22 11 7.6 4.2 20.9 69.6 -2.8 137 0.7
8000 12.7 54.9 265 21 11 7.5 4.1 20.7 69.3 -3.4 114 0.6
7750 13.2 55.8 265 20 10 8.0 4.4 20.5 69.0 -3.1 90 0.5
7500 13.7 56.7 265 19 10 6.3 3.4 20.4 68.7 -3.3 66 0.3
7250 14.1 57.4 265 18 9 5.1 2.8 20.0 68.1 -3.7 48 0.2
7000 14.5 58.1 260 16 8 5.9 3.3 19.7 67.5 -4.0 28 0.1
6750 14.9 58.8 260 14 7 5.5 3.0 19.4 67.0 -4.4 9 0.0
6500 15.3 59.5 260 12 6 4.7 2.6 19.1 66.3 -4.7 M M
6250 15.5 59.9 255 8 4 -0.2 -0.1 18.6 65.4 -5.3 M M
6000 15.1 59.2 245 6 3 -6.9 -3.8 17.5 63.6 -6.4 M M
5750 14.8 58.6 220 3 2 4.6 2.5 16.5 61.7 -7.5 M M
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/12/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +61.1 LI... -0.6 | CAPE... +25.2 LI... +1.0
CINH... -22.6 K Index... +22.5 | CINH... -1.1 K Index... +23.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 240 55 28 5.7 3.1 | -68.5 -91.3 235 59 30 5.7 3.1
45000 -59.9 -75.8 245 75 38 6.5 3.5 | -59.7 -75.5 235 73 38 6.2 3.4
40000 -50.2 -58.4 235 90 46 7.3 4.0 | -50.3 -58.5 230 92 47 7.4 4.1
38000 -45.3 -49.5 235 87 45 7.3 4.0 | -45.9 -50.6 230 91 47 7.4 4.0
36000 -40.9 -41.6 230 85 44 7.2 4.0 | -40.9 -41.6 230 90 46 7.3 4.0
34000 -36.2 -33.2 230 85 44 7.9 4.3 | -36.2 -33.2 230 89 46 8.1 4.4
32000 -31.5 -24.7 230 84 43 7.9 4.3 | -31.4 -24.5 230 88 45 8.0 4.4
30000 -27.5 -17.5 235 82 42 6.3 3.4 | -27.5 -17.5 230 82 42 6.0 3.3
29000 -25.6 -14.1 235 80 41 6.3 3.4 | -25.7 -14.3 235 79 41 6.0 3.3
28000 -23.7 -10.7 235 78 40 6.4 3.5 | -24.0 -11.2 235 76 39 6.1 3.3
27000 -22.1 -7.8 240 73 38 4.9 2.7 | -22.4 -8.3 240 70 36 4.9 2.7
26000 -20.7 -5.3 240 67 35 4.9 2.7 | -21.0 -5.8 245 64 33 4.9 2.7
25000 -19.2 -2.6 245 61 31 5.0 2.7 | -19.5 -3.1 245 57 30 5.0 2.7
24000 -17.7 0.1 245 56 29 5.8 3.2 | -17.8 -0.0 250 53 27 6.2 3.4
23000 -15.5 4.1 245 52 27 5.8 3.2 | -16.0 3.2 250 50 26 6.2 3.4
22000 -13.7 7.3 245 49 25 5.8 3.2 | -13.7 7.3 250 47 24 6.1 3.4
21000 -12.2 10.0 250 46 24 5.2 2.9 | -11.8 10.8 250 44 23 6.5 3.5
20000 -10.7 12.7 250 44 22 5.3 2.9 | -9.9 14.2 250 42 21 6.5 3.6
19500 -9.9 14.2 250 42 22 5.4 2.9 | -9.0 15.8 250 40 21 6.5 3.6
19000 -9.2 15.4 250 41 21 5.7 3.1 | -8.0 17.6 245 39 20 6.1 3.4
18500 -8.3 17.1 250 40 21 6.0 3.3 | -7.2 19.0 245 38 20 5.9 3.2
18000 -7.4 18.7 255 39 20 6.1 3.3 | -6.4 20.5 245 37 19 6.0 3.3
17500 -6.6 20.1 255 38 19 6.2 3.4 | -5.6 21.9 245 36 19 4.9 2.7
17000 -5.7 21.7 255 36 19 6.2 3.4 | -4.9 23.2 245 35 18 5.1 2.8
16500 -4.8 23.4 255 35 18 5.8 3.2 | -4.2 24.4 245 34 17 5.0 2.7
16000 -4.0 24.8 255 33 17 5.6 3.1 | -3.5 25.7 245 33 17 5.0 2.7
15500 -3.2 26.2 255 32 16 5.6 3.1 | -2.9 26.8 250 31 16 5.0 2.8
15000 -2.4 27.7 260 30 15 5.6 3.1 | -2.1 28.2 250 30 15 5.3 2.9
14500 -1.6 29.1 260 28 14 5.5 3.0 | -1.3 29.7 250 28 15 5.3 2.9
14000 -0.8 30.6 265 26 13 6.1 3.4 | -0.6 30.9 250 26 14 5.0 2.8
13500 0.1 32.2 265 25 13 6.1 3.4 | 0.2 32.4 255 24 13 5.1 2.8
13000 0.9 33.6 265 24 12 6.3 3.5 | 0.9 33.6 255 22 11 5.3 2.9
12500 1.8 35.2 270 23 12 6.4 3.5 | 1.7 35.1 260 20 10 5.3 2.9
12000 2.7 36.9 270 22 11 6.6 3.6 | 2.5 36.5 265 18 9 6.4 3.5
11500 3.6 38.5 270 22 11 6.7 3.7 | 3.4 38.1 270 16 8 6.8 3.7
11000 4.6 40.3 275 22 11 7.1 3.9 | 4.4 39.9 275 14 7 7.4 4.0
10500 5.6 42.1 275 22 11 7.3 4.0 | 5.5 41.9 275 13 7 7.4 4.0
10250 6.1 43.0 275 22 11 7.3 4.0 | 6.0 42.8 275 12 6 7.2 4.0
10000 6.7 44.1 275 22 11 7.7 4.2 | 6.5 43.7 280 12 6 8.8 4.9
9750 7.2 45.0 275 22 11 8.1 4.4 | 7.2 45.0 280 11 6 9.9 5.4
9500 7.8 46.0 275 22 11 8.0 4.4 | 7.9 46.2 280 11 6 9.4 5.2
9250 8.4 47.1 275 22 11 7.8 4.3 | 8.6 47.5 280 11 6 8.8 4.8
9000 8.9 48.0 275 22 11 7.8 4.3 | 9.2 48.6 280 11 6 8.8 4.8
8750 9.5 49.1 275 22 11 8.0 4.4 | 9.9 49.8 280 11 5 9.3 5.1
8500 10.1 50.2 275 21 11 7.8 4.3 | 10.6 51.1 280 11 5 8.9 4.9
8250 11.3 52.3 275 19 10 8.3 4.6 | 11.3 52.3 280 10 5 10.2 5.6
8000 11.9 53.4 275 18 9 7.4 4.1 | 12.8 55.0 285 10 5 9.5 5.2
7750 12.4 54.3 275 17 9 8.1 4.4 | 13.5 56.3 285 10 5 10.0 5.5
7500 13.0 55.4 275 16 8 6.3 3.5 | 14.3 57.7 285 10 5 9.2 5.0
7250 13.4 56.1 275 15 8 6.0 3.3 | 14.9 58.8 285 10 5 9.7 5.3
7000 13.9 57.0 275 13 7 7.4 4.1 | 15.7 60.3 285 9 5 10.8 5.9
6750 14.4 57.9 275 11 6 7.0 3.8 | 16.5 61.7 285 9 5 10.5 5.8
6500 14.8 58.6 270 10 5 5.9 3.2 | 17.3 63.1 285 9 5 9.9 5.5
6250 15.3 59.5 270 8 4 8.3 4.6 | 18.1 64.6 285 9 5 13.7 7.5
6000 16.2 61.2 270 7 4 14.8 8.1 | 19.4 66.9 285 8 4 21.4 11.7
5750 17.0 62.6 270 6 3 2.7 1.5 | 20.7 69.3 285 8 4 7.3 4.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/12/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +6.2 LI... +0.9 | CAPE... +20.1 LI... +0.5
CINH... -1.3 K Index... +23.5 | CINH... -16.9 K Index... +26.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.9 -93.8 240 66 34 5.7 3.1 | -70.5 -94.9 235 72 37 5.4 3.0
45000 -60.6 -77.1 235 78 40 6.3 3.5 | -62.0 -79.6 235 84 43 6.5 3.6
40000 -50.8 -59.4 225 93 48 8.1 4.5 | -51.3 -60.3 225 88 45 8.5 4.7
38000 -45.9 -50.6 225 92 47 8.2 4.5 | -46.2 -51.2 220 85 44 8.6 4.7
36000 -40.9 -41.6 225 90 46 8.2 4.5 | -41.0 -41.8 220 82 42 8.7 4.8
34000 -36.3 -33.3 225 87 45 7.5 4.1 | -36.5 -33.7 225 81 42 7.2 4.0
32000 -31.8 -25.2 225 83 43 7.5 4.1 | -32.2 -26.0 230 82 42 7.2 4.0
30000 -27.8 -18.0 230 79 41 6.5 3.5 | -28.4 -19.1 235 75 39 5.9 3.2
29000 -25.9 -14.6 235 77 39 6.5 3.6 | -26.6 -15.9 235 71 36 5.9 3.2
28000 -24.0 -11.2 235 75 38 6.7 3.7 | -24.9 -12.8 240 66 34 5.9 3.2
27000 -22.0 -7.6 240 68 35 4.8 2.6 | -23.1 -9.6 240 60 31 5.9 3.3
26000 -20.6 -5.1 245 62 32 4.8 2.6 | -20.9 -5.6 240 52 27 6.0 3.3
25000 -19.1 -2.4 250 56 29 4.7 2.6 | -19.1 -2.4 240 45 23 5.9 3.3
24000 -17.4 0.7 250 50 26 6.4 3.5 | -17.2 1.0 245 41 21 7.0 3.8
23000 -15.5 4.1 250 46 23 6.4 3.5 | -15.1 4.8 245 39 20 7.0 3.9
22000 -13.6 7.5 250 41 21 6.5 3.6 | -13.0 8.6 245 36 19 7.2 3.9
21000 -11.8 10.8 250 38 20 5.9 3.2 | -11.2 11.8 250 34 18 5.6 3.0
20000 -10.1 13.8 250 37 19 5.9 3.2 | -9.6 14.7 255 33 17 5.6 3.0
19500 -9.3 15.3 255 37 19 5.9 3.3 | -8.8 16.2 255 32 17 5.5 3.0
19000 -8.4 16.9 255 36 19 6.1 3.3 | -7.9 17.8 255 32 16 5.5 3.0
18500 -7.5 18.5 255 35 18 6.2 3.4 | -7.1 19.2 260 31 16 5.4 3.0
18000 -6.6 20.1 255 35 18 6.2 3.4 | -6.3 20.7 260 30 16 5.5 3.0
17500 -5.7 21.7 255 34 18 6.3 3.5 | -5.6 21.9 255 29 15 4.8 2.7
17000 -4.8 23.4 255 34 17 6.3 3.5 | -4.9 23.2 255 28 14 4.9 2.7
16500 -3.9 25.0 255 33 17 5.9 3.3 | -4.3 24.3 255 27 14 4.8 2.6
16000 -3.1 26.4 250 32 16 5.5 3.0 | -3.6 25.5 250 25 13 4.7 2.6
15500 -2.3 27.9 250 30 16 5.5 3.0 | -3.0 26.6 245 24 12 5.0 2.7
15000 -1.6 29.1 250 29 15 4.5 2.5 | -2.1 28.2 245 23 12 7.5 4.1
14500 -1.0 30.2 250 27 14 4.7 2.6 | -1.1 30.0 245 23 12 7.4 4.0
14000 -0.4 31.3 250 24 12 4.1 2.2 | -0.1 31.8 245 22 11 7.2 3.9
13500 0.2 32.4 250 21 11 4.0 2.2 | 1.0 33.8 250 20 10 7.2 3.9
13000 0.8 33.4 250 17 9 6.0 3.3 | 2.0 35.6 250 19 10 7.1 3.9
12500 1.7 35.1 250 15 8 6.7 3.7 | 3.0 37.4 255 16 8 7.0 3.9
12000 2.7 36.9 255 13 7 8.1 4.4 | 4.1 39.4 255 14 7 7.5 4.1
11500 4.1 39.4 255 12 6 8.9 4.9 | 5.2 41.4 260 12 6 7.8 4.3
11000 5.4 41.7 260 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 6.4 43.5 260 10 5 8.1 4.4
10500 6.8 44.2 260 11 6 9.4 5.2 | 7.6 45.7 255 9 5 8.5 4.7
10250 7.5 45.5 260 11 6 9.5 5.2 | 8.2 46.8 255 9 4 8.7 4.8
10000 8.3 46.9 260 10 5 9.6 5.3 | 8.9 48.0 255 8 4 8.8 4.8
9750 9.0 48.2 260 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 9.5 49.1 250 8 4 9.0 4.9
9500 9.7 49.5 260 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 10.2 50.4 245 8 4 8.8 4.8
9250 10.4 50.7 260 10 5 9.9 5.4 | 10.8 51.4 240 8 4 8.3 4.6
9000 11.9 53.4 260 9 5 9.4 5.1 | 11.4 52.5 240 7 4 8.4 4.6
8750 12.6 54.7 260 9 5 9.3 5.1 | 12.7 54.9 230 8 4 8.4 4.6
8500 13.3 55.9 260 9 5 9.7 5.3 | 13.4 56.1 225 8 4 9.3 5.1
8250 14.0 57.2 260 9 5 10.0 5.5 | 14.1 57.4 220 8 4 10.0 5.5
8000 14.8 58.6 260 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 14.8 58.6 215 8 4 9.4 5.2
7750 15.5 59.9 260 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 15.5 59.9 210 8 4 9.9 5.5
7500 16.3 61.3 260 8 4 9.4 5.2 | 16.2 61.2 210 9 4 8.4 4.6
7250 16.9 62.4 260 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 16.8 62.2 205 9 5 8.5 4.7
7000 17.7 63.9 260 8 4 10.4 5.7 | 17.5 63.5 205 9 5 10.1 5.5
6750 18.5 65.3 260 8 4 10.3 5.6 | 18.3 64.9 200 9 5 9.7 5.3
6500 19.2 66.6 260 7 4 9.9 5.5 | 19.0 66.2 200 10 5 9.9 5.4
6250 20.1 68.2 260 7 4 13.1 7.2 | 19.7 67.5 200 10 5 9.6 5.3
6000 21.3 70.3 260 7 3 19.3 10.6 | 20.4 68.7 195 9 5 8.8 4.8
5750 22.5 72.5 255 6 3 8.0 4.4 | 21.0 69.8 195 8 4 10.3 5.6
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0721 MDT Sunday October 12 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, October 12, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 64.9 F/18.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 393 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13472 ft MSL (7030 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 70.0 F/21.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10081 ft MSL (3639 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 10/13....... Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:08:49 / 18:32:37 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 23 min 48 sec (683 min 48 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:43 MDT... 46.63 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/12/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13521 ft MSL (7079 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11649 ft MSL (5207 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12433 ft MSL (5991 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.2
K index......................... +16.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 240 51 26 5.0 2.7 72.0 161.5 30.2 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 245 72 37 7.1 3.9 62.8 145.1 26.4 M M
40000 -49.6 -57.3 240 81 42 7.1 3.9 57.2 134.9 24.4 M M
38000 -44.9 -48.8 235 80 41 7.1 3.9 54.2 129.6 23.1 M M
36000 -40.6 -41.1 235 79 41 7.0 3.8 52.3 126.2 22.3 M M
34000 -35.9 -32.6 235 80 41 8.2 4.5 50.7 123.2 21.7 M M
32000 -31.0 -23.8 235 80 41 8.1 4.5 49.5 121.1 21.3 M M
30000 -26.7 -16.1 235 79 41 6.7 3.7 47.4 117.4 20.3 M M
29000 -24.7 -12.5 235 79 40 6.7 3.7 46.3 115.3 19.6 M M
28000 -22.6 -8.7 240 78 40 7.0 3.8 45.3 113.5 19.0 M M
27000 -21.2 -6.2 240 74 38 4.0 2.2 43.4 110.1 17.7 M M
26000 -20.0 -4.0 240 68 35 4.0 2.2 41.2 106.1 16.2 M M
25000 -18.8 -1.8 240 63 32 4.1 2.2 39.1 102.4 14.7 M M
24000 -16.9 1.6 245 57 30 5.9 3.2 37.0 98.5 13.1 M M
23000 -15.2 4.6 245 54 28 5.9 3.2 35.5 96.0 12.1 M M
22000 -13.4 7.9 250 51 26 5.9 3.3 34.2 93.6 11.1 M M
21000 -11.6 11.1 250 48 25 5.8 3.2 32.8 91.1 10.0 M M
20000 -9.9 14.2 250 46 24 5.8 3.2 31.5 88.6 8.9 M M
19500 -9.0 15.8 250 45 23 5.8 3.2 30.8 87.4 8.4 M M
19000 -8.2 17.2 250 44 23 5.1 2.8 30.2 86.3 7.9 M M
18500 -7.6 18.3 255 43 22 3.6 2.0 29.2 84.5 7.0 M M
18000 -7.1 19.2 255 43 22 3.7 2.0 28.1 82.7 6.1 M M
17500 -6.6 20.1 255 42 22 4.2 2.3 27.2 80.9 5.2 M M
17000 -6.0 21.2 255 41 21 4.3 2.4 26.2 79.2 4.3 M M
16500 -5.5 22.1 255 40 21 5.1 2.8 25.3 77.6 3.5 M M
16000 -4.6 23.7 255 39 20 6.1 3.4 24.7 76.4 2.8 M M
15500 -3.8 25.2 260 38 19 6.2 3.4 24.1 75.4 2.3 M M
15000 -2.8 27.0 260 37 19 6.7 3.7 23.6 74.4 1.7 M M
14500 -1.9 28.6 260 35 18 6.7 3.7 23.1 73.5 1.2 M M
14000 -1.0 30.2 260 34 18 6.4 3.5 22.5 72.6 0.7 M M
13500 -0.1 31.8 265 33 17 6.4 3.5 22.0 71.6 0.1 M M
13000 0.8 33.4 265 32 16 6.7 3.7 21.5 70.6 -0.4 559 2.8
12500 1.8 35.2 265 31 16 6.9 3.8 21.0 69.8 -0.9 516 2.6
12000 2.7 36.9 265 30 15 7.2 4.0 20.5 69.0 -1.4 472 2.4
11500 3.8 38.8 265 29 15 7.5 4.1 20.2 68.3 -1.8 426 2.2
11000 4.9 40.8 265 29 15 7.8 4.3 19.9 67.8 -2.2 379 1.9
10500 6.0 42.8 265 28 15 7.9 4.3 19.6 67.2 -2.6 331 1.7
10250 7.1 44.8 270 28 14 7.8 4.3 19.3 66.7 -3.0 283 1.4
10000 7.6 45.7 270 27 14 7.6 4.2 19.1 66.4 -3.2 259 1.3
9750 8.2 46.8 270 26 14 7.7 4.2 19.0 66.1 -3.4 236 1.2
9500 8.7 47.7 270 26 13 7.5 4.1 18.8 65.8 -3.6 212 1.1
9250 9.2 48.6 270 25 13 7.2 4.0 18.6 65.5 -3.8 189 1.0
9000 9.8 49.6 265 24 12 7.3 4.0 18.4 65.2 -4.0 166 0.8
8750 10.3 50.5 265 22 12 7.2 4.0 18.2 64.8 -4.2 143 0.7
8500 10.8 51.4 265 21 11 7.5 4.1 18.1 64.5 -4.4 120 0.6
8250 11.3 52.3 265 20 10 7.5 4.1 17.9 64.2 -4.6 96 0.5
8000 11.8 53.2 265 18 9 6.3 3.4 17.7 63.8 -4.8 74 0.4
7750 12.3 54.1 265 16 8 5.8 3.2 17.4 63.3 -5.2 54 0.3
7500 12.7 54.9 260 14 7 5.5 3.0 17.1 62.8 -5.5 35 0.2
7250 13.0 55.4 260 12 6 4.2 2.3 16.7 62.1 -5.9 17 0.1
7000 13.3 55.9 255 10 5 4.8 2.6 16.3 61.3 -6.4 1 0.0
6750 13.5 56.3 250 8 4 -1.7 -1.0 15.8 60.4 -6.9 M M
6500 11.9 53.4 235 3 2 -50.8 -27.8 13.5 56.3 -9.2 28 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/12/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +35.5 LI... +0.8 | CAPE... +0.4 LI... +2.7
CINH... -7.8 K Index... +17.3 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +16.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.5 -91.3 235 55 29 5.5 3.0 | -68.8 -91.8 235 62 32 5.5 3.0
45000 -59.9 -75.8 245 74 38 6.5 3.6 | -60.1 -76.2 235 77 40 6.6 3.6
40000 -50.1 -58.2 235 89 46 7.2 3.9 | -50.2 -58.4 230 94 48 7.4 4.0
38000 -45.3 -49.5 235 86 44 7.1 3.9 | -45.8 -50.4 230 92 47 7.3 4.0
36000 -41.1 -42.0 230 84 43 7.1 3.9 | -40.9 -41.6 230 90 47 7.3 4.0
34000 -36.3 -33.3 230 84 43 8.1 4.5 | -36.3 -33.3 230 89 46 7.7 4.2
32000 -31.5 -24.7 230 84 43 8.1 4.4 | -31.7 -25.1 230 88 46 7.7 4.2
30000 -27.4 -17.3 235 81 42 6.1 3.4 | -27.9 -18.2 230 82 42 5.8 3.2
29000 -25.6 -14.1 235 79 41 6.1 3.4 | -26.2 -15.2 235 78 40 5.8 3.2
28000 -23.8 -10.8 240 78 40 6.2 3.4 | -24.5 -12.1 235 75 38 5.9 3.2
27000 -22.1 -7.8 240 73 38 5.4 3.0 | -22.8 -9.0 240 69 36 5.3 2.9
26000 -20.5 -4.9 240 68 35 5.4 3.0 | -21.2 -6.2 240 63 33 5.3 2.9
25000 -18.9 -2.0 245 62 32 5.4 3.0 | -19.6 -3.3 245 57 29 5.4 2.9
24000 -16.8 1.8 245 57 29 5.8 3.2 | -17.4 0.7 245 53 27 6.4 3.5
23000 -15.0 5.0 245 54 28 5.8 3.2 | -15.5 4.1 250 51 26 6.4 3.5
22000 -13.3 8.1 245 51 26 5.9 3.2 | -13.6 7.5 250 50 26 6.4 3.5
21000 -11.6 11.1 250 48 25 5.5 3.0 | -11.6 11.1 250 48 25 6.6 3.6
20000 -10.0 14.0 250 46 24 5.6 3.1 | -9.7 14.5 250 47 24 6.6 3.6
19500 -9.2 15.4 250 45 23 5.6 3.1 | -8.7 16.3 250 46 24 6.6 3.6
19000 -8.4 16.9 250 44 23 5.5 3.0 | -7.7 18.1 250 45 23 6.0 3.3
18500 -7.7 18.1 250 43 22 5.2 2.8 | -7.0 19.4 250 43 22 5.3 2.9
18000 -7.0 19.4 255 42 22 5.2 2.9 | -6.2 20.8 250 42 22 5.4 2.9
17500 -6.2 20.8 255 41 21 5.4 3.0 | -5.5 22.1 250 40 21 5.1 2.8
17000 -5.5 22.1 255 40 21 5.4 3.0 | -4.8 23.4 250 39 20 5.2 2.8
16500 -4.7 23.5 255 39 20 5.3 2.9 | -4.1 24.6 255 37 19 4.9 2.7
16000 -4.0 24.8 255 38 19 5.1 2.8 | -3.5 25.7 255 35 18 4.6 2.5
15500 -3.3 26.1 255 36 19 5.1 2.8 | -2.8 27.0 255 34 17 4.6 2.5
15000 -2.6 27.3 255 35 18 4.7 2.6 | -2.2 28.0 260 32 16 4.9 2.7
14500 -1.9 28.6 260 33 17 4.7 2.6 | -1.5 29.3 260 30 15 4.9 2.7
14000 -1.2 29.8 260 31 16 5.5 3.0 | -0.8 30.6 265 28 14 5.1 2.8
13500 -0.4 31.3 265 30 15 5.6 3.1 | -0.0 32.0 265 26 13 5.0 2.8
13000 0.4 32.7 265 28 15 6.2 3.4 | 0.7 33.3 270 24 12 5.9 3.2
12500 1.3 34.3 270 27 14 6.5 3.6 | 1.6 34.9 275 21 11 6.2 3.4
12000 2.2 36.0 275 27 14 6.7 3.7 | 2.5 36.5 275 19 10 6.5 3.5
11500 3.2 37.8 275 27 14 6.7 3.7 | 3.4 38.1 280 18 9 6.9 3.8
11000 4.1 39.4 280 26 13 6.7 3.7 | 4.5 40.1 280 16 8 8.0 4.4
10500 5.1 41.2 285 25 13 6.9 3.8 | 5.7 42.3 280 15 8 8.1 4.5
10250 6.1 43.0 285 24 13 7.3 4.0 | 6.9 44.4 280 14 7 9.2 5.1
10000 6.6 43.9 285 23 12 7.2 3.9 | 7.6 45.7 280 14 7 9.6 5.3
9750 7.1 44.8 285 22 11 7.2 3.9 | 8.3 46.9 280 14 7 9.4 5.2
9500 7.6 45.7 285 21 11 7.3 4.0 | 9.0 48.2 280 14 7 9.9 5.4
9250 8.1 46.6 285 20 10 8.0 4.4 | 9.8 49.6 280 14 7 9.9 5.4
9000 8.7 47.7 285 19 10 8.4 4.6 | 10.5 50.9 280 14 7 9.5 5.2
8750 9.3 48.7 285 19 10 8.3 4.5 | 11.2 52.2 275 13 7 9.6 5.3
8500 9.9 49.8 285 18 9 8.3 4.6 | 11.9 53.4 275 13 7 9.5 5.2
8250 10.5 50.9 285 17 9 8.3 4.6 | 12.6 54.7 275 13 7 9.8 5.4
8000 11.1 52.0 285 16 8 8.3 4.5 | 13.3 55.9 275 13 7 10.2 5.6
7750 11.7 53.1 280 15 8 8.4 4.6 | 14.1 57.4 275 13 7 10.3 5.7
7500 12.3 54.1 280 14 7 8.0 4.4 | 14.9 58.8 270 13 6 10.2 5.6
7250 12.9 55.2 280 12 6 7.3 4.0 | 15.6 60.1 270 12 6 10.5 5.8
7000 13.4 56.1 275 10 5 7.6 4.2 | 16.4 61.5 270 12 6 9.3 5.1
6750 14.0 57.2 275 9 5 10.3 5.7 | 17.1 62.8 270 12 6 13.1 7.2
6500 15.1 59.2 270 7 4 20.4 11.2 | 19.1 66.4 265 11 5 51.7 28.3
10/12/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/12/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.7
CINH... -0.8 K Index... +18.1 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +20.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.6 -93.3 235 71 36 5.5 3.0 | -69.0 -92.2 240 77 40 4.4 2.4
45000 -61.0 -77.8 235 83 43 6.4 3.5 | -61.7 -79.1 235 88 45 6.2 3.4
40000 -50.7 -59.3 230 97 50 7.8 4.3 | -51.6 -60.9 225 92 47 8.6 4.7
38000 -46.0 -50.8 230 96 49 7.9 4.3 | -46.4 -51.5 225 93 48 8.6 4.7
36000 -41.3 -42.3 230 94 48 7.9 4.3 | -41.2 -42.2 225 94 48 8.6 4.7
34000 -36.7 -34.1 230 91 47 7.5 4.1 | -37.0 -34.6 225 90 46 6.5 3.6
32000 -32.3 -26.1 230 87 45 7.5 4.1 | -33.1 -27.6 230 85 44 6.6 3.6
30000 -28.4 -19.1 230 82 42 6.1 3.3 | -29.6 -21.3 235 75 39 5.4 3.0
29000 -26.6 -15.9 235 79 41 6.1 3.3 | -28.0 -18.4 235 70 36 5.4 3.0
28000 -24.3 -11.7 240 76 39 5.9 3.3 | -26.3 -15.3 240 64 33 5.4 2.9
27000 -22.7 -8.9 240 70 36 5.2 2.8 | -24.4 -11.9 240 59 30 6.8 3.8
26000 -21.1 -6.0 245 64 33 5.2 2.8 | -21.9 -7.4 245 53 27 6.9 3.8
25000 -19.6 -3.3 250 58 30 5.2 2.8 | -19.9 -3.8 245 49 25 6.9 3.8
24000 -17.9 -0.2 250 55 28 6.1 3.3 | -17.9 -0.2 245 45 23 6.8 3.7
23000 -16.0 3.2 250 52 27 6.1 3.3 | -15.8 3.6 245 42 22 6.8 3.7
22000 -14.2 6.4 255 49 25 6.1 3.3 | -13.8 7.2 245 39 20 6.9 3.8
21000 -12.4 9.7 255 47 24 6.2 3.4 | -12.0 10.4 250 36 18 5.8 3.2
20000 -10.6 12.9 255 43 22 6.2 3.4 | -10.3 13.5 250 32 17 5.8 3.2
19500 -9.7 14.5 255 42 22 6.2 3.4 | -9.4 15.1 255 31 16 5.8 3.2
19000 -8.8 16.2 255 40 21 6.4 3.5 | -8.6 16.5 255 29 15 6.2 3.4
18500 -7.9 17.8 255 39 20 6.6 3.6 | -7.6 18.3 260 28 14 6.7 3.7
18000 -7.0 19.4 255 37 19 6.6 3.6 | -6.7 19.9 260 27 14 6.7 3.7
17500 -6.0 21.2 255 36 18 6.8 3.7 | -5.7 21.7 260 26 13 6.5 3.6
17000 -5.0 23.0 255 34 18 6.8 3.7 | -4.8 23.4 260 26 13 6.5 3.6
16500 -4.0 24.8 250 33 17 6.5 3.6 | -3.8 25.2 260 25 13 6.4 3.5
16000 -3.1 26.4 255 31 16 6.1 3.4 | -2.9 26.8 260 25 13 6.3 3.4
15500 -2.2 28.0 255 30 15 6.2 3.4 | -2.0 28.4 260 24 12 6.3 3.4
15000 -1.4 29.5 255 28 14 5.6 3.1 | -1.2 29.8 260 23 12 5.4 3.0
14500 -0.6 30.9 260 26 14 5.7 3.1 | -0.4 31.3 260 22 11 5.5 3.0
14000 0.2 32.4 265 24 13 6.0 3.3 | 0.4 32.7 265 21 11 5.2 2.9
13500 1.1 34.0 265 23 12 6.0 3.3 | 1.1 34.0 260 19 10 5.2 2.9
13000 2.0 35.6 270 21 11 6.5 3.5 | 1.9 35.4 260 18 9 6.4 3.5
12500 3.0 37.4 275 19 10 6.7 3.7 | 2.9 37.2 260 16 8 7.0 3.8
12000 4.0 39.2 280 18 9 6.6 3.6 | 3.9 39.0 255 14 7 7.6 4.2
11500 4.9 40.8 280 17 9 7.1 3.9 | 5.1 41.2 260 13 7 8.2 4.5
11000 6.8 44.2 275 16 8 9.4 5.2 | 6.9 44.4 260 12 6 8.8 4.8
10500 8.2 46.8 275 16 8 9.9 5.5 | 8.2 46.8 265 11 6 8.1 4.5
10250 8.9 48.0 275 16 8 10.0 5.5 | 8.8 47.8 260 11 6 8.3 4.6
10000 9.6 49.3 275 16 8 9.2 5.1 | 9.5 49.1 265 11 6 9.3 5.1
9750 10.3 50.5 275 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 10.2 50.4 265 11 6 9.3 5.1
9500 11.0 51.8 275 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 10.9 51.6 270 11 6 8.6 4.7
9250 11.8 53.2 270 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 11.5 52.7 265 11 6 8.6 4.7
9000 12.5 54.5 270 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 12.2 54.0 265 11 6 9.4 5.2
8750 13.2 55.8 270 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 12.9 55.2 270 11 6 9.2 5.0
8500 13.9 57.0 270 16 8 9.6 5.3 | 13.6 56.5 270 11 6 9.5 5.2
8250 14.7 58.5 270 16 8 9.9 5.4 | 14.3 57.7 270 11 5 9.9 5.4
8000 15.4 59.7 265 16 8 10.3 5.6 | 15.0 59.0 275 10 5 9.4 5.2
7750 16.2 61.2 265 16 8 10.4 5.7 | 15.7 60.3 275 10 5 8.8 4.8
7500 16.9 62.4 265 16 8 10.2 5.6 | 16.4 61.5 275 10 5 9.3 5.1
7250 17.7 63.9 265 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 17.1 62.8 275 9 5 10.3 5.6
7000 18.5 65.3 265 16 8 14.2 7.8 | 17.8 64.0 275 9 5 8.4 4.6
6750 19.9 67.8 260 15 8 22.2 12.2 | 18.3 64.9 275 8 4 4.5 2.5
6500 21.2 70.2 260 14 7 8.0 4.4 | 18.7 65.7 275 6 3 11.6 6.4
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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