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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0727 MDT Thursday August 14 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, August 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 80.7 F/27.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1469 ft/min (7.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 19697 ft MSL (13370 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 91.0 F/33.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15924 ft MSL (9596 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/15....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:23:51 / 19:53:20 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 29 min 30 sec (809 min 30 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:36 MDT... 69.03 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16320 ft MSL (9993 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17385 ft MSL (11058 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18288 ft MSL (11961 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.8
K index......................... +25.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.5 -85.9 245 15 8 0.4 0.2 77.7 171.8 26.6 M M
45000 -62.6 -80.7 255 21 11 5.3 2.9 59.5 139.2 16.9 M M
40000 -54.0 -65.2 260 21 11 8.1 4.5 50.5 123.0 12.0 M M
38000 -49.1 -56.4 255 17 9 8.2 4.5 48.9 120.1 11.2 M M
36000 -43.6 -46.5 240 14 7 8.1 4.4 47.8 118.1 10.8 M M
34000 -38.8 -37.8 240 9 4 8.0 4.4 46.1 115.0 9.8 M M
32000 -34.0 -29.2 220 3 2 7.9 4.3 45.0 112.9 9.1 M M
30000 -29.9 -21.8 190 7 3 6.9 3.8 42.6 108.7 7.5 M M
29000 -27.8 -18.0 185 9 5 6.9 3.8 41.5 106.8 6.7 M M
28000 -25.7 -14.3 180 12 6 7.9 4.3 40.6 105.1 6.0 M M
27000 -23.3 -9.9 175 15 8 7.9 4.4 39.8 103.7 5.5 M M
26000 -20.9 -5.6 175 19 10 8.0 4.4 39.2 102.5 5.1 M M
25000 -18.4 -1.1 170 22 11 7.6 4.2 38.7 101.6 4.8 M M
24000 -16.4 2.5 170 19 10 6.7 3.7 37.5 99.5 3.9 M M
23000 -14.4 6.1 170 16 8 6.7 3.7 36.4 97.5 3.0 M M
22000 -12.4 9.7 170 13 7 6.8 3.8 35.4 95.8 2.2 M M
21000 -10.3 13.5 160 11 6 7.1 3.9 34.4 93.9 1.2 M M
20000 -7.8 18.0 140 10 5 7.2 4.0 33.2 91.8 0.1 M M
19500 -6.8 19.8 135 10 5 7.2 4.0 32.9 91.2 -0.2 1240 6.3
19000 -5.7 21.7 130 10 5 7.2 4.0 32.4 90.3 -0.7 1194 6.1
18500 -4.7 23.5 130 11 6 7.2 3.9 32.0 89.6 -1.1 1148 5.8
18000 -3.6 25.5 125 10 5 8.0 4.4 31.6 88.9 -1.5 1100 5.6
17500 -2.4 27.7 125 9 5 8.0 4.4 31.3 88.4 -1.8 1051 5.3
17000 -1.3 29.7 130 7 4 7.8 4.3 31.0 87.9 -2.1 1002 5.1
16500 -0.2 31.6 140 4 2 7.5 4.1 30.6 87.2 -2.6 956 4.9
16000 0.8 33.4 195 2 1 7.6 4.2 30.3 86.5 -3.0 909 4.6
15500 2.0 35.6 245 3 1 8.5 4.6 30.0 86.0 -3.3 860 4.4
15000 3.2 37.8 250 5 2 8.4 4.6 29.8 85.6 -3.6 809 4.1
14500 4.4 39.9 255 6 3 9.1 5.0 29.6 85.3 -3.8 756 3.8
14000 5.8 42.4 255 7 3 9.2 5.0 29.5 85.1 -3.9 701 3.6
13500 7.1 44.8 260 7 4 9.2 5.0 29.4 85.0 -4.1 645 3.3
13000 8.5 47.3 265 8 4 9.2 5.0 29.3 84.8 -4.2 590 3.0
12500 9.9 49.8 270 9 5 8.7 4.7 29.3 84.7 -4.3 534 2.7
12000 11.1 52.0 275 11 6 8.1 4.4 29.0 84.2 -4.6 484 2.5
11500 12.2 54.0 280 13 7 8.5 4.7 28.7 83.7 -4.9 434 2.2
11000 13.5 56.3 280 14 7 8.0 4.4 28.5 83.3 -5.1 381 1.9
10500 14.7 58.5 285 15 8 8.0 4.4 28.3 82.9 -5.4 329 1.7
10250 15.3 59.5 285 15 8 8.3 4.5 28.1 82.7 -5.5 304 1.5
10000 16.0 60.8 290 15 8 8.7 4.8 28.1 82.5 -5.6 277 1.4
9750 16.6 61.9 290 15 7 8.6 4.7 28.0 82.3 -5.7 250 1.3
9500 17.3 63.1 290 14 7 8.6 4.7 27.9 82.2 -5.8 223 1.1
9250 17.9 64.2 295 14 7 8.5 4.7 27.8 82.0 -5.9 197 1.0
9000 18.5 65.3 295 14 7 7.7 4.2 27.7 81.8 -6.0 171 0.9
8750 19.1 66.4 295 14 7 7.1 3.9 27.5 81.5 -6.2 148 0.8
8500 19.6 67.3 295 14 7 7.2 3.9 27.3 81.1 -6.4 124 0.6
8250 20.1 68.2 295 13 7 7.2 4.0 27.1 80.8 -6.7 101 0.5
8000 20.6 69.1 295 13 7 6.6 3.6 26.9 80.4 -6.9 78 0.4
7750 21.1 70.0 295 13 6 6.4 3.5 26.6 79.9 -7.2 57 0.3
7500 21.5 70.7 290 12 6 2.9 1.6 26.3 79.3 -7.6 38 0.2
7250 21.5 70.7 290 11 6 -0.4 -0.2 25.6 78.1 -8.3 31 0.2
7000 21.5 70.7 285 9 5 1.5 0.8 24.9 76.8 -9.1 24 0.1
6750 21.4 70.5 280 8 4 -3.9 -2.2 24.2 75.5 -9.8 17 0.1
6500 20.5 68.9 270 6 3 -20.7 -11.4 22.5 72.6 -11.5 38 0.2
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +47.6 LI... -1.1 | CAPE... +254.1 LI... -2.6
CINH... -99.7 K Index... +25.3 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +28.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.5 -85.9 260 19 10 -0.7 -0.4 | -65.8 -86.4 270 18 9 -0.9 -0.5
45000 -63.5 -82.3 260 24 12 5.9 3.2 | -63.8 -82.8 265 23 12 6.4 3.5
40000 -54.2 -65.6 270 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -53.4 -64.1 240 17 9 8.2 4.5
38000 -48.6 -55.5 250 12 6 8.3 4.5 | -48.5 -55.3 230 17 9 8.1 4.5
36000 -43.6 -46.5 230 13 6 8.1 4.4 | -43.7 -46.7 220 17 9 8.1 4.4
34000 -38.9 -38.0 215 10 5 7.9 4.3 | -38.9 -38.0 205 13 7 7.9 4.4
32000 -34.1 -29.4 195 9 5 7.9 4.3 | -34.2 -29.6 185 11 6 8.0 4.4
30000 -29.5 -21.1 195 12 6 7.8 4.3 | -29.1 -20.4 195 13 7 7.7 4.2
29000 -27.2 -17.0 200 13 7 7.8 4.3 | -26.8 -16.2 200 15 8 7.8 4.3
28000 -24.9 -12.8 200 15 8 7.1 3.9 | -24.5 -12.1 200 16 8 7.4 4.1
27000 -22.8 -9.0 185 15 8 7.1 3.9 | -22.4 -8.3 200 16 8 7.4 4.1
26000 -20.6 -5.1 170 17 9 7.1 3.9 | -20.2 -4.4 195 16 8 7.5 4.1
25000 -18.4 -1.1 160 19 10 6.8 3.7 | -18.0 -0.4 195 16 8 6.5 3.5
24000 -16.6 2.1 165 16 8 6.0 3.3 | -16.2 2.8 190 14 7 5.8 3.2
23000 -14.8 5.4 165 13 7 6.0 3.3 | -14.4 6.1 185 12 6 5.9 3.2
22000 -12.9 8.8 170 10 5 6.2 3.4 | -12.6 9.3 175 10 5 5.6 3.1
21000 -11.1 12.0 165 8 4 6.6 3.6 | -11.0 12.2 175 7 3 5.6 3.0
20000 -8.7 16.3 160 7 3 6.8 3.7 | -9.5 14.9 170 4 2 5.7 3.1
19500 -7.7 18.1 160 6 3 7.1 3.9 | -8.7 16.3 165 2 1 6.1 3.3
19000 -6.7 19.9 160 5 3 7.2 4.0 | -7.6 18.3 150 2 1 8.2 4.5
18500 -5.7 21.7 160 5 3 7.2 3.9 | -6.5 20.3 125 1 1 8.1 4.5
18000 -4.5 23.9 165 5 2 8.7 4.8 | -5.3 22.5 100 1 1 8.5 4.7
17500 -3.3 26.1 165 5 2 8.6 4.7 | -4.1 24.6 130 1 0 8.7 4.8
17000 -2.0 28.4 170 5 3 9.1 5.0 | -2.8 27.0 185 1 0 8.8 4.8
16500 -0.7 30.7 175 5 2 9.4 5.2 | -0.8 30.6 220 2 1 9.3 5.1
16000 0.7 33.3 180 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 0.5 32.9 225 3 1 9.4 5.1
15500 2.1 35.8 190 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 1.9 35.4 225 3 2 9.5 5.2
15000 3.4 38.1 205 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 3.3 37.9 225 4 2 9.5 5.2
14500 4.8 40.6 220 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 4.7 40.5 230 4 2 9.2 5.1
14000 6.1 43.0 230 5 2 9.1 5.0 | 6.1 43.0 230 4 2 9.2 5.1
13500 7.5 45.5 240 5 3 9.2 5.0 | 7.5 45.5 230 5 2 9.7 5.3
13000 8.8 47.8 260 6 3 9.2 5.0 | 8.9 48.0 230 5 3 9.8 5.4
12500 10.1 50.2 270 7 4 8.8 4.8 | 10.4 50.7 230 5 3 9.5 5.2
12000 11.4 52.5 280 8 4 8.4 4.6 | 11.8 53.2 230 5 3 9.3 5.1
11500 12.6 54.7 285 9 5 7.5 4.1 | 13.2 55.8 235 6 3 10.0 5.5
11000 13.8 56.8 285 9 5 8.6 4.7 | 14.6 58.3 235 6 3 9.6 5.3
10500 15.0 59.0 285 10 5 8.0 4.4 | 16.1 61.0 235 6 3 8.8 4.8
10250 15.6 60.1 285 10 5 7.9 4.3 | 16.7 62.1 235 6 3 9.2 5.0
10000 16.2 61.2 285 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 17.4 63.3 235 6 3 10.4 5.7
9750 16.8 62.2 285 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 18.2 64.8 235 7 3 10.0 5.5
9500 17.4 63.3 285 9 5 8.1 4.5 | 18.9 66.0 235 7 3 10.5 5.8
9250 18.0 64.4 285 9 4 7.9 4.3 | 19.7 67.5 235 7 4 10.8 5.9
9000 18.6 65.5 285 8 4 7.0 3.8 | 20.5 68.9 235 7 4 9.7 5.3
8750 19.1 66.4 280 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 21.2 70.2 235 7 4 9.1 5.0
8500 19.6 67.3 280 7 4 5.5 3.0 | 21.9 71.4 235 7 4 9.6 5.3
8250 19.9 67.8 280 7 3 4.0 2.2 | 22.6 72.7 230 7 4 9.9 5.4
8000 20.1 68.2 275 6 3 4.4 2.4 | 23.3 73.9 230 7 4 9.9 5.4
7750 20.4 68.7 265 6 3 4.2 2.3 | 24.1 75.4 230 8 4 10.1 5.6
7500 20.8 69.4 260 5 3 6.6 3.6 | 24.8 76.6 230 8 4 10.3 5.7
7250 21.3 70.3 255 5 3 8.5 4.7 | 25.6 78.1 230 8 4 10.6 5.8
7000 21.9 71.4 250 5 2 7.7 4.2 | 26.4 79.5 230 8 4 9.9 5.4
6750 22.5 72.5 240 5 2 10.0 5.5 | 27.2 81.0 225 8 4 13.0 7.1
6500 23.5 74.3 235 4 2 15.3 8.4 | 28.5 83.3 225 7 4 22.6 12.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
08/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +167.0 LI... -1.3 | CAPE... +215.8 LI... -1.3
CINH... -1.0 K Index... +30.4 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +30.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.1 -85.2 260 17 9 -0.2 -0.1 | -65.6 -86.1 260 16 8 0.0 0.0
45000 -63.0 -81.4 260 25 13 5.2 2.8 | -62.5 -80.5 270 21 11 5.8 3.2
40000 -54.0 -65.2 250 19 10 8.6 4.7 | -53.3 -63.9 255 14 7 7.8 4.3
38000 -48.9 -56.0 245 15 8 8.6 4.7 | -48.6 -55.5 260 14 7 7.8 4.3
36000 -43.8 -46.8 240 11 6 8.5 4.6 | -43.9 -47.0 265 14 7 8.0 4.4
34000 -38.9 -38.0 235 10 5 8.2 4.5 | -38.9 -38.0 265 13 7 8.4 4.6
32000 -34.0 -29.2 230 9 5 8.4 4.6 | -33.9 -29.0 270 12 6 8.6 4.7
30000 -29.3 -20.7 225 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -29.0 -20.2 260 12 6 7.3 4.0
29000 -27.3 -17.1 225 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -26.8 -16.2 255 12 6 7.3 4.0
28000 -25.1 -13.2 225 16 8 8.7 4.8 | -24.6 -12.3 255 12 6 8.0 4.4
27000 -22.5 -8.5 225 16 8 8.6 4.7 | -22.3 -8.1 255 10 5 8.0 4.4
26000 -20.0 -4.0 225 16 8 8.6 4.7 | -19.9 -3.8 250 9 5 8.0 4.4
25000 -17.5 0.5 220 16 8 7.6 4.2 | -17.6 0.3 245 7 4 7.5 4.1
24000 -15.5 4.1 215 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -15.5 4.1 240 8 4 7.2 3.9
23000 -13.4 7.9 210 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -13.3 8.1 235 8 4 7.2 3.9
22000 -11.4 11.5 200 10 5 6.3 3.4 | -11.3 11.7 230 8 4 6.5 3.5
21000 -9.7 14.5 190 8 4 5.9 3.3 | -9.5 14.9 230 7 3 6.2 3.4
20000 -8.1 17.4 165 5 3 6.0 3.3 | -7.8 18.0 225 5 3 6.3 3.4
19500 -7.2 19.0 150 5 2 6.2 3.4 | -6.9 19.6 225 5 2 6.4 3.5
19000 -6.3 20.7 155 5 3 7.3 4.0 | -5.9 21.4 220 5 3 7.2 4.0
18500 -5.2 22.6 165 6 3 7.3 4.0 | -4.9 23.2 220 5 3 7.2 4.0
18000 -4.2 24.4 175 7 4 6.9 3.8 | -3.9 25.0 215 6 3 6.9 3.8
17500 -3.2 26.2 180 7 4 6.8 3.7 | -2.9 26.8 215 7 3 6.9 3.8
17000 -2.2 28.0 190 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -1.9 28.6 215 7 4 7.1 3.9
16500 -0.5 31.1 190 8 4 8.4 4.6 | -0.6 30.9 215 8 4 9.7 5.3
16000 0.8 33.4 190 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 1.5 34.7 220 9 4 9.6 5.3
15500 2.2 36.0 190 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 3.0 37.4 220 9 5 9.9 5.4
15000 3.6 38.5 190 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 4.4 39.9 220 9 5 9.9 5.5
14500 5.1 41.2 195 8 4 9.9 5.5 | 5.9 42.6 215 10 5 9.7 5.3
14000 6.5 43.7 195 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 7.4 45.3 215 10 5 9.7 5.3
13500 8.0 46.4 195 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 8.8 47.8 215 11 5 9.7 5.3
13000 9.4 48.9 200 9 4 9.6 5.3 | 10.3 50.5 215 11 6 9.7 5.3
12500 10.9 51.6 200 9 4 9.5 5.2 | 11.7 53.1 215 11 6 9.4 5.1
12000 12.3 54.1 205 9 5 9.3 5.1 | 13.1 55.6 215 12 6 9.0 4.9
11500 13.8 56.8 205 9 5 10.6 5.8 | 14.5 58.1 210 12 6 10.9 6.0
11000 15.3 59.5 210 9 5 9.6 5.3 | 16.0 60.8 210 13 6 9.4 5.2
10500 16.7 62.1 210 10 5 8.8 4.8 | 17.5 63.5 210 13 7 8.3 4.5
10250 17.4 63.3 215 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 18.1 64.6 210 13 7 8.6 4.7
10000 18.1 64.6 215 10 5 10.5 5.7 | 18.8 65.8 210 13 7 10.5 5.8
9750 18.9 66.0 215 10 5 10.2 5.6 | 19.6 67.3 210 13 7 10.0 5.5
9500 19.6 67.3 215 11 5 10.0 5.5 | 20.3 68.5 210 14 7 10.1 5.6
9250 20.4 68.7 220 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 21.1 70.0 210 14 7 10.1 5.5
9000 21.1 70.0 220 11 6 9.9 5.5 | 21.8 71.2 205 14 7 9.8 5.4
8750 21.9 71.4 220 11 6 10.1 5.6 | 22.5 72.5 205 14 7 9.7 5.3
8500 22.6 72.7 220 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 23.3 73.9 205 15 7 9.5 5.2
8250 23.3 73.9 220 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 23.9 75.0 205 15 8 9.0 4.9
8000 24.0 75.2 225 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 24.6 76.3 205 15 8 9.5 5.2
7750 24.8 76.6 225 12 6 10.7 5.9 | 25.4 77.7 205 15 8 10.6 5.8
7500 25.6 78.1 225 12 6 10.3 5.6 | 26.1 79.0 205 15 8 10.0 5.5
7250 26.3 79.3 225 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 26.9 80.4 205 15 8 9.5 5.2
7000 27.0 80.6 225 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 27.6 81.7 205 15 8 9.6 5.2
6750 27.8 82.0 225 12 6 11.1 6.1 | 28.3 82.9 200 15 8 10.0 5.5
6500 28.8 83.8 225 12 6 16.9 9.3 | 29.1 84.4 200 14 7 12.0 6.6
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0727 MDT Thursday August 14 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, August 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 83.9 F/28.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1516 ft/min (7.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 19452 ft MSL (13778 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 93.0 F/34.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13525 ft MSL (7851 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/15....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:26:14 / 19:55:55 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 29 min 41 sec (809 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:11:05 MDT... 68.91 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16313 ft MSL (10639 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17117 ft MSL (11443 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17872 ft MSL (12198 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.0
K index......................... +26.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.9 -84.8 240 17 9 0.5 0.3 81.0 177.7 27.7 M M
45000 -62.3 -80.1 250 23 12 4.6 2.5 62.3 144.1 17.9 M M
40000 -54.7 -66.5 270 24 13 8.5 4.7 51.8 125.3 12.1 M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 255 18 9 8.6 4.7 50.4 122.8 11.5 M M
36000 -43.8 -46.8 235 14 7 8.4 4.6 49.8 121.7 11.3 M M
34000 -39.0 -38.2 235 9 5 8.1 4.4 48.2 118.7 10.4 M M
32000 -34.2 -29.6 235 5 3 8.1 4.4 47.0 116.7 9.8 M M
30000 -29.6 -21.3 205 8 4 7.7 4.2 45.3 113.5 8.6 M M
29000 -27.3 -17.1 200 10 5 7.7 4.2 44.5 112.1 8.1 M M
28000 -25.1 -13.2 195 12 6 6.8 3.7 43.8 110.8 7.6 M M
27000 -23.0 -9.4 185 14 7 6.6 3.6 42.5 108.5 6.7 M M
26000 -21.0 -5.8 180 15 8 6.7 3.7 41.3 106.4 5.8 M M
25000 -19.0 -2.2 175 16 8 6.6 3.6 40.3 104.5 5.1 M M
24000 -17.1 1.2 170 16 8 6.5 3.5 39.0 102.2 4.1 M M
23000 -14.7 5.5 160 15 8 6.5 3.5 37.5 99.6 2.9 M M
22000 -12.7 9.1 155 14 7 7.1 3.9 36.5 97.7 2.0 M M
21000 -10.6 12.9 145 13 7 7.3 4.0 35.5 95.9 1.2 M M
20000 -8.5 16.7 135 12 6 7.5 4.1 34.7 94.5 0.4 M M
19500 -7.5 18.5 130 12 6 7.6 4.2 34.4 93.9 -0.0 1315 6.7
19000 -6.3 20.7 130 10 5 7.7 4.2 34.0 93.2 -0.4 1267 6.4
18500 -5.2 22.6 135 9 5 7.7 4.2 33.7 92.6 -0.7 1219 6.2
18000 -4.1 24.6 140 7 4 8.1 4.5 33.3 92.0 -1.0 1170 5.9
17500 -2.9 26.8 150 6 3 8.2 4.5 33.1 91.5 -1.3 1119 5.7
17000 -1.7 28.9 165 5 2 8.4 4.6 32.8 91.1 -1.6 1069 5.4
16500 -0.5 31.1 180 4 2 8.7 4.8 32.6 90.7 -1.8 1017 5.2
16000 0.8 33.4 195 4 2 8.7 4.8 32.4 90.4 -2.0 964 4.9
15500 2.1 35.8 210 5 2 8.6 4.7 32.3 90.1 -2.2 912 4.6
15000 3.3 37.9 225 5 3 8.7 4.8 32.1 89.8 -2.4 859 4.4
14500 4.6 40.3 235 6 3 8.7 4.8 31.9 89.5 -2.6 806 4.1
14000 5.9 42.6 245 7 3 8.7 4.8 31.8 89.2 -2.8 753 3.8
13500 7.2 45.0 250 8 4 8.7 4.8 31.6 88.9 -3.0 699 3.6
13000 8.4 47.1 255 9 4 8.7 4.8 31.4 88.6 -3.2 646 3.3
12500 9.7 49.5 260 10 5 8.5 4.7 31.3 88.3 -3.4 594 3.0
12000 10.9 51.6 260 10 5 8.1 4.4 31.0 87.8 -3.7 543 2.8
11500 12.1 53.8 255 11 6 8.1 4.5 30.7 87.3 -4.0 493 2.5
11000 13.3 55.9 255 10 5 8.5 4.7 30.5 86.9 -4.2 441 2.2
10500 14.5 58.1 255 10 5 7.8 4.3 30.3 86.5 -4.5 390 2.0
10250 15.1 59.2 255 10 5 8.3 4.6 30.1 86.3 -4.6 365 1.9
10000 15.8 60.4 255 9 5 8.8 4.8 30.1 86.1 -4.7 337 1.7
9750 16.4 61.5 260 9 5 8.7 4.8 30.0 86.0 -4.8 310 1.6
9500 17.1 62.8 260 9 4 8.7 4.8 29.9 85.8 -4.9 283 1.4
9250 17.7 63.9 260 8 4 7.4 4.1 29.8 85.6 -5.0 257 1.3
9000 18.2 64.8 260 7 4 6.4 3.5 29.6 85.2 -5.2 235 1.2
8750 18.7 65.7 265 7 3 7.2 3.9 29.3 84.8 -5.5 212 1.1
8500 19.5 67.1 270 5 3 4.2 2.3 28.7 83.6 -6.1 174 0.9
8250 19.9 67.8 275 5 2 5.3 2.9 28.3 82.9 -6.5 156 0.8
8000 20.2 68.4 275 4 2 5.2 2.9 28.0 82.3 -6.9 137 0.7
7750 20.6 69.1 275 4 2 5.0 2.8 27.6 81.7 -7.3 119 0.6
7500 20.9 69.6 275 3 2 4.5 2.5 27.2 81.0 -7.7 102 0.5
7250 21.2 70.2 260 3 2 4.2 2.3 26.8 80.3 -8.2 85 0.4
7000 21.5 70.7 240 3 1 4.0 2.2 26.4 79.5 -8.6 70 0.4
6750 21.8 71.2 215 3 2 4.7 2.6 26.0 78.7 -9.1 54 0.3
6500 22.1 71.8 205 4 2 5.2 2.8 25.6 78.1 -9.5 36 0.2
6250 22.5 72.5 195 5 3 4.6 2.5 25.3 77.5 -9.9 18 0.1
6000 22.6 72.7 185 5 3 -1.5 -0.8 24.7 76.5 -10.5 6 0.0
5750 21.6 70.9 170 5 3 -32.8 -18.0 22.9 73.3 -12.3 31 0.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +26.3 LI... -1.2 | CAPE... +177.5 LI... -2.1
CINH... -145.5 K Index... +25.8 | CINH... -12.3 K Index... +27.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.7 -86.3 260 21 11 -0.7 -0.4 | -65.6 -86.1 265 18 9 -0.9 -0.5
45000 -63.6 -82.5 260 26 13 6.2 3.4 | -63.6 -82.5 260 23 12 6.2 3.4
40000 -53.4 -64.1 255 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -53.4 -64.1 240 18 9 8.0 4.4
38000 -48.6 -55.5 245 14 7 8.1 4.4 | -48.6 -55.5 235 14 7 8.0 4.4
36000 -43.8 -46.8 230 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -43.8 -46.8 235 11 6 8.2 4.5
34000 -39.0 -38.2 210 10 5 8.0 4.4 | -38.7 -37.7 220 11 6 8.5 4.7
32000 -34.2 -29.6 180 9 5 8.0 4.4 | -33.6 -28.5 205 13 7 8.5 4.7
30000 -29.7 -21.5 190 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -29.2 -20.6 205 15 8 7.3 4.0
29000 -27.4 -17.3 190 14 7 7.7 4.2 | -27.1 -16.8 210 17 9 7.3 4.0
28000 -25.1 -13.2 195 15 8 7.1 3.9 | -24.9 -12.8 210 17 9 7.2 4.0
27000 -23.0 -9.4 185 15 8 7.0 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 205 15 8 7.2 4.0
26000 -20.9 -5.6 180 14 7 7.0 3.9 | -20.7 -5.3 200 14 7 7.2 4.0
25000 -18.8 -1.8 175 14 7 6.8 3.8 | -18.5 -1.3 195 12 6 6.9 3.8
24000 -16.5 2.3 170 13 6 5.9 3.3 | -16.3 2.7 185 10 5 5.5 3.0
23000 -14.7 5.5 170 11 6 5.9 3.3 | -14.6 5.7 170 8 4 5.5 3.0
22000 -12.9 8.8 170 10 5 6.5 3.6 | -12.9 8.8 155 7 4 6.1 3.4
21000 -11.0 12.2 170 9 5 6.7 3.7 | -11.1 12.0 150 6 3 6.3 3.5
20000 -9.0 15.8 165 9 5 6.9 3.8 | -9.3 15.3 145 4 2 6.6 3.6
19500 -8.1 17.4 165 9 4 7.3 4.0 | -8.5 16.7 140 4 2 7.2 4.0
19000 -7.0 19.4 165 8 4 7.7 4.2 | -7.3 18.9 145 4 2 8.0 4.4
18500 -5.9 21.4 165 7 4 7.7 4.2 | -6.2 20.8 150 3 2 8.0 4.4
18000 -4.7 23.5 165 7 3 8.7 4.8 | -5.0 23.0 160 4 2 8.7 4.8
17500 -3.4 25.9 165 6 3 8.7 4.8 | -3.7 25.3 165 4 2 8.7 4.8
17000 -2.2 28.0 170 5 2 8.9 4.9 | -2.4 27.7 170 4 2 8.9 4.9
16500 -0.8 30.6 180 4 2 9.2 5.0 | -1.1 30.0 175 5 2 9.2 5.0
16000 0.5 32.9 190 4 2 9.2 5.1 | 0.3 32.5 175 5 3 9.2 5.0
15500 1.9 35.4 205 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 1.7 35.1 180 5 3 9.7 5.3
15000 3.2 37.8 220 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 3.1 37.6 185 5 3 9.6 5.3
14500 4.6 40.3 235 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 4.5 40.1 185 5 2 9.4 5.2
14000 5.9 42.6 250 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 5.9 42.6 190 4 2 9.4 5.2
13500 7.3 45.1 265 5 2 9.0 4.9 | 7.3 45.1 200 4 2 9.2 5.1
13000 8.6 47.5 270 5 3 8.9 4.9 | 8.7 47.7 210 3 2 9.1 5.0
12500 9.9 49.8 275 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 10.0 50.0 225 3 2 8.9 4.9
12000 11.1 52.0 275 6 3 8.5 4.7 | 11.2 52.2 230 4 2 8.4 4.6
11500 12.4 54.3 275 6 3 8.5 4.7 | 12.5 54.5 235 5 2 8.3 4.6
11000 13.7 56.7 270 7 3 8.6 4.7 | 13.7 56.7 230 6 3 8.0 4.4
10500 14.9 58.8 265 7 4 8.5 4.7 | 14.8 58.6 225 7 4 7.9 4.3
10250 15.5 59.9 265 7 4 8.1 4.4 | 15.4 59.7 225 7 4 8.4 4.6
10000 16.1 61.0 265 7 3 7.9 4.4 | 16.0 60.8 220 8 4 8.6 4.7
9750 16.7 62.1 260 6 3 7.9 4.3 | 16.7 62.1 220 8 4 8.5 4.6
9500 17.3 63.1 260 6 3 8.2 4.5 | 17.3 63.1 220 8 4 8.8 4.8
9250 17.9 64.2 255 6 3 7.2 4.0 | 18.0 64.4 220 9 4 9.3 5.1
9000 18.4 65.1 255 5 3 5.9 3.2 | 18.7 65.7 220 9 5 9.3 5.1
8750 18.9 66.0 250 5 2 7.0 3.8 | 19.4 66.9 220 9 5 9.6 5.3
8500 19.5 67.1 240 4 2 2.3 1.2 | 20.7 69.3 215 9 5 8.9 4.9
8250 19.7 67.5 230 4 2 4.1 2.3 | 21.4 70.5 215 10 5 10.4 5.7
8000 20.0 68.0 220 4 2 3.9 2.2 | 22.2 72.0 215 10 5 10.2 5.6
7750 20.2 68.4 210 4 2 3.7 2.0 | 22.9 73.2 215 10 5 9.5 5.2
7500 20.5 68.9 205 4 2 4.4 2.4 | 23.6 74.5 215 10 5 9.2 5.1
7250 20.9 69.6 200 5 3 6.9 3.8 | 24.4 75.9 215 10 5 10.7 5.9
7000 21.4 70.5 200 5 3 7.9 4.4 | 25.2 77.4 215 10 5 11.2 6.1
6750 22.0 71.6 200 5 3 8.6 4.7 | 26.0 78.8 215 10 5 10.4 5.7
6500 22.7 72.9 200 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 26.7 80.1 215 10 5 10.3 5.7
6250 23.4 74.1 200 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 27.5 81.5 215 10 5 9.6 5.3
6000 24.1 75.4 200 6 3 11.9 6.6 | 28.3 82.9 215 9 5 16.1 8.8
5750 25.6 78.1 200 5 3 34.0 18.6 | 31.0 87.8 215 9 5 66.7 36.6
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
08/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +86.8 LI... -1.5 | CAPE... +10.3 LI... -0.4
CINH... -9.5 K Index... +26.1 | CINH... -5.1 K Index... +25.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.1 -85.2 265 17 9 -0.4 -0.2 | -65.4 -85.7 265 15 8 -0.2 -0.1
45000 -63.0 -81.4 265 24 12 5.4 2.9 | -62.8 -81.0 270 22 11 5.9 3.2
40000 -53.8 -64.8 240 18 9 8.4 4.6 | -53.1 -63.6 245 17 9 7.6 4.2
38000 -48.8 -55.8 240 15 8 8.4 4.6 | -48.6 -55.5 245 16 8 7.6 4.1
36000 -43.8 -46.8 240 13 7 8.3 4.5 | -44.1 -47.4 250 16 8 8.0 4.4
34000 -38.9 -38.0 235 13 6 8.2 4.5 | -39.0 -38.2 255 14 7 8.5 4.7
32000 -34.0 -29.2 235 12 6 8.2 4.5 | -33.9 -29.0 260 13 7 8.5 4.7
30000 -29.5 -21.1 230 14 7 7.4 4.1 | -29.2 -20.6 250 12 6 7.8 4.3
29000 -27.3 -17.1 230 14 7 7.5 4.1 | -26.9 -16.4 245 11 6 7.8 4.3
28000 -25.1 -13.2 225 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -24.6 -12.3 235 11 6 7.6 4.2
27000 -22.7 -8.9 230 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -22.3 -8.1 230 12 6 7.6 4.2
26000 -20.3 -4.5 235 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -20.1 -4.2 225 13 6 7.6 4.2
25000 -17.3 0.9 240 15 8 7.0 3.8 | -17.3 0.9 220 13 7 7.2 3.9
24000 -15.3 4.5 230 13 7 6.8 3.7 | -15.2 4.6 225 11 5 7.1 3.9
23000 -13.3 8.1 215 11 6 6.8 3.7 | -13.1 8.4 225 8 4 7.1 3.9
22000 -11.4 11.5 205 10 5 5.1 2.8 | -11.1 12.0 225 6 3 5.7 3.1
21000 -10.0 14.0 195 7 4 4.9 2.7 | -9.5 14.9 210 3 1 5.5 3.0
20000 -8.5 16.7 185 5 3 5.0 2.8 | -7.9 17.8 130 2 1 5.6 3.1
19500 -7.8 18.0 175 4 2 6.0 3.3 | -7.2 19.0 100 3 1 6.1 3.3
19000 -6.8 19.8 180 4 2 7.9 4.4 | -6.2 20.8 130 2 1 7.1 3.9
18500 -5.6 21.9 185 4 2 7.9 4.4 | -5.2 22.6 180 2 1 7.0 3.8
18000 -4.4 24.1 190 4 2 8.6 4.7 | -4.1 24.6 200 4 2 8.3 4.6
17500 -3.2 26.2 195 5 3 8.6 4.7 | -2.8 27.0 200 5 3 8.5 4.6
17000 -1.9 28.6 200 6 3 8.9 4.9 | -1.6 29.1 200 6 3 8.8 4.8
16500 -0.5 31.1 200 6 3 9.4 5.2 | -0.2 31.6 200 7 4 9.5 5.2
16000 0.9 33.6 200 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 1.2 34.2 200 7 4 9.5 5.2
15500 2.3 36.1 205 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 2.7 36.9 200 8 4 9.7 5.3
15000 3.7 38.7 205 7 3 9.7 5.3 | 4.1 39.4 200 8 4 9.7 5.3
14500 5.2 41.4 205 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 5.6 42.1 200 9 4 9.8 5.4
14000 6.6 43.9 205 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 7.0 44.6 200 9 5 9.8 5.4
13500 8.1 46.6 205 7 4 9.6 5.2 | 8.5 47.3 200 9 5 9.8 5.4
13000 9.5 49.1 205 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 10.0 50.0 200 10 5 9.8 5.4
12500 10.9 51.6 205 8 4 9.6 5.2 | 11.4 52.5 200 10 5 9.8 5.4
12000 12.3 54.1 205 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 12.9 55.2 195 11 5 9.7 5.3
11500 13.8 56.8 205 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 14.4 57.9 195 11 6 9.7 5.3
11000 15.2 59.4 205 8 4 9.0 5.0 | 15.8 60.4 195 12 6 9.3 5.1
10500 16.6 61.9 205 9 5 10.5 5.7 | 17.2 63.0 195 12 6 10.3 5.7
10250 17.4 63.3 205 9 5 9.9 5.5 | 18.0 64.4 195 12 6 9.9 5.4
10000 18.1 64.6 205 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 18.7 65.7 195 13 6 9.5 5.2
9750 18.8 65.8 205 9 5 9.6 5.3 | 19.4 66.9 195 13 7 9.6 5.3
9500 19.5 67.1 200 10 5 9.6 5.3 | 20.2 68.4 195 13 7 9.7 5.3
9250 20.3 68.5 205 10 5 9.8 5.4 | 20.9 69.6 195 13 7 9.8 5.4
9000 21.0 69.8 205 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 21.6 70.9 195 14 7 9.6 5.3
8750 21.7 71.1 200 10 5 10.0 5.5 | 23.1 73.6 195 14 7 8.2 4.5
8500 23.1 73.6 200 11 6 9.2 5.1 | 23.6 74.5 195 15 8 8.6 4.7
8250 23.9 75.0 200 11 6 10.5 5.8 | 24.4 75.9 195 15 8 10.7 5.9
8000 24.6 76.3 200 11 6 10.3 5.7 | 25.2 77.4 195 15 8 10.3 5.7
7750 25.4 77.7 200 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 25.9 78.6 195 15 8 9.7 5.3
7500 26.1 79.0 200 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 26.6 79.9 195 16 8 9.1 5.0
7250 26.9 80.4 200 12 6 10.8 5.9 | 27.3 81.1 195 16 8 10.1 5.6
7000 27.7 81.9 200 12 6 11.4 6.3 | 28.1 82.6 195 16 8 10.7 5.9
6750 28.5 83.3 200 12 6 10.5 5.8 | 28.9 84.0 195 16 8 10.2 5.6
6500 29.3 84.7 200 12 6 10.1 5.5 | 29.7 85.5 195 16 8 10.0 5.5
6250 30.0 86.0 200 12 6 9.6 5.2 | 30.4 86.7 195 16 8 9.2 5.0
6000 30.9 87.6 200 12 6 16.1 8.8 | 31.1 88.0 195 15 8 11.6 6.4
5750 33.4 92.1 200 11 6 65.0 35.7 | 32.7 90.9 195 14 7 37.2 20.4
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0728 MDT Thursday August 14 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, August 14, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 81.2 F/27.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1386 ft/min (7.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20847 ft MSL (14398 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 92.0 F/33.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 16982 ft MSL (10533 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/15....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:23:13 / 19:54:44 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 31 min 30 sec (811 min 30 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:08:58 MDT... 68.39 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/14/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16387 ft MSL (9938 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17792 ft MSL (11343 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19031 ft MSL (12582 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.4
K index......................... +24.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.1 -85.2 240 13 7 0.1 0.1 77.9 172.3 26.4 M M
45000 -62.7 -80.9 250 19 10 5.0 2.7 59.1 138.4 16.3 M M
40000 -54.6 -66.3 240 19 10 8.4 4.6 49.5 121.1 10.9 M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 240 16 8 8.5 4.7 48.0 118.4 10.2 M M
36000 -43.9 -47.0 240 15 7 8.3 4.5 47.3 117.2 10.0 M M
34000 -39.1 -38.4 230 11 6 7.9 4.3 45.5 113.9 8.9 M M
32000 -34.4 -29.9 215 8 4 8.0 4.4 44.3 111.7 8.2 M M
30000 -30.3 -22.5 195 11 6 6.8 3.7 41.9 107.4 6.5 M M
29000 -28.2 -18.8 185 13 7 6.8 3.7 40.8 105.4 5.8 M M
28000 -26.1 -15.0 185 15 8 8.3 4.5 39.9 103.8 5.1 M M
27000 -23.5 -10.3 180 17 9 8.6 4.7 39.3 102.8 4.8 M M
26000 -21.0 -5.8 180 18 9 8.6 4.7 38.9 102.0 4.5 M M
25000 -17.8 -0.0 175 20 10 7.1 3.9 38.4 101.1 4.1 M M
24000 -15.8 3.6 170 18 9 6.6 3.6 37.2 98.9 3.1 M M
23000 -13.9 7.0 170 16 8 6.7 3.7 36.1 96.9 2.2 M M
22000 -12.0 10.4 165 14 7 6.3 3.5 35.0 95.0 1.3 M M
21000 -10.1 13.8 155 13 7 6.3 3.5 33.7 92.7 0.1 M M
20000 -8.3 17.1 145 12 6 6.5 3.6 32.6 90.6 -1.0 1311 6.7
19500 -7.4 18.7 140 12 6 7.0 3.8 32.1 89.7 -1.5 1270 6.4
19000 -6.3 20.7 135 11 5 8.1 4.4 31.7 89.1 -1.9 1222 6.2
18500 -5.2 22.6 140 9 5 8.1 4.4 31.4 88.6 -2.2 1173 6.0
18000 -4.0 24.8 140 7 3 8.4 4.6 31.2 88.1 -2.5 1123 5.7
17500 -2.8 27.0 135 4 2 8.5 4.7 31.0 87.7 -2.8 1071 5.4
17000 -1.6 29.1 115 1 0 8.5 4.6 30.8 87.4 -3.0 1019 5.2
16500 -0.3 31.5 325 2 1 8.3 4.6 30.5 86.9 -3.3 968 4.9
16000 0.9 33.6 320 4 2 8.3 4.5 30.3 86.5 -3.5 917 4.7
15500 2.1 35.8 310 5 3 9.0 5.0 30.1 86.2 -3.7 864 4.4
15000 3.4 38.1 305 6 3 9.0 4.9 30.0 85.9 -3.9 810 4.1
14500 4.8 40.6 295 7 4 9.0 4.9 29.9 85.7 -4.0 756 3.8
14000 6.1 43.0 290 9 4 9.0 4.9 29.7 85.5 -4.2 701 3.6
13500 7.4 45.3 285 10 5 8.9 4.9 29.6 85.3 -4.3 647 3.3
13000 8.7 47.7 285 11 6 8.7 4.8 29.5 85.0 -4.5 593 3.0
12500 10.0 50.0 285 13 6 8.6 4.7 29.3 84.7 -4.7 540 2.7
12000 11.2 52.2 285 13 7 8.2 4.5 29.1 84.3 -5.0 488 2.5
11500 12.5 54.5 290 14 7 8.5 4.7 28.8 83.9 -5.2 436 2.2
11000 13.7 56.7 295 14 7 8.1 4.4 28.6 83.5 -5.4 384 1.9
10500 15.6 60.1 300 13 7 7.8 4.3 28.3 82.9 -5.8 306 1.6
10250 16.1 61.0 305 13 7 7.4 4.1 28.1 82.5 -6.0 282 1.4
10000 16.7 62.1 305 13 6 7.5 4.1 27.9 82.2 -6.2 258 1.3
9750 17.2 63.0 310 12 6 7.5 4.1 27.7 81.9 -6.4 234 1.2
9500 17.8 64.0 315 12 6 7.0 3.8 27.6 81.6 -6.6 211 1.1
9250 18.2 64.8 315 11 6 5.8 3.2 27.3 81.1 -6.9 190 1.0
9000 18.6 65.5 320 10 5 5.4 2.9 27.0 80.5 -7.2 171 0.9
8750 19.0 66.2 320 9 5 5.4 3.0 26.6 79.9 -7.6 151 0.8
8500 19.4 66.9 320 8 4 4.8 2.6 26.3 79.3 -8.0 133 0.7
8250 19.7 67.5 315 7 4 4.4 2.4 25.9 78.6 -8.4 116 0.6
8000 20.0 68.0 310 6 3 4.2 2.3 25.5 77.9 -8.8 100 0.5
7750 20.3 68.5 310 5 3 4.2 2.3 25.1 77.1 -9.3 84 0.4
7500 20.6 69.1 305 4 2 4.6 2.5 24.6 76.4 -9.8 68 0.3
7250 20.9 69.6 300 3 2 3.9 2.1 24.2 75.6 -10.2 51 0.3
7000 21.2 70.2 295 3 1 6.6 3.6 23.9 74.9 -10.6 34 0.2
6750 21.5 70.7 300 2 1 -3.6 -2.0 23.5 74.2 -11.1 18 0.1
6500 18.5 65.3 010 1 0 -99.7 -54.7 19.7 67.5 -14.9 102 0.5
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/14/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +18.2 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +164.2 LI... -1.6
CINH... -82.8 K Index... +22.8 | CINH... -17.5 K Index... +24.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.9 -84.8 245 21 11 -0.4 -0.2 | -65.8 -86.4 265 19 10 -0.9 -0.5
45000 -63.0 -81.4 255 28 14 5.1 2.8 | -64.0 -83.2 260 22 12 6.1 3.4
40000 -54.1 -65.4 265 20 10 8.5 4.7 | -53.8 -64.8 250 13 7 8.3 4.6
38000 -49.0 -56.2 255 18 9 8.5 4.7 | -48.8 -55.8 235 16 8 8.3 4.6
36000 -43.9 -47.0 245 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -43.8 -46.8 225 20 10 8.2 4.5
34000 -39.2 -38.6 225 14 7 7.9 4.3 | -39.0 -38.2 210 18 9 8.0 4.4
32000 -34.5 -30.1 200 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -34.2 -29.6 190 18 9 8.0 4.4
30000 -30.3 -22.5 185 13 7 7.1 3.9 | -29.6 -21.3 195 17 9 7.8 4.3
29000 -28.2 -18.8 180 13 7 7.1 3.9 | -27.3 -17.1 200 17 9 7.8 4.3
28000 -26.0 -14.8 175 14 7 7.6 4.2 | -25.1 -13.2 205 17 9 6.9 3.8
27000 -23.6 -10.5 175 16 8 7.8 4.3 | -23.0 -9.4 195 16 8 6.8 3.7
26000 -21.3 -6.3 175 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -20.4 -4.7 185 16 8 6.8 3.7
25000 -18.3 -0.9 170 20 10 6.7 3.6 | -18.4 -1.1 180 16 8 6.0 3.3
24000 -16.5 2.3 170 16 8 6.3 3.5 | -16.7 1.9 175 12 6 5.7 3.1
23000 -14.6 5.7 175 13 7 6.4 3.5 | -15.0 5.0 165 8 4 5.7 3.1
22000 -12.7 9.1 175 10 5 6.7 3.7 | -13.3 8.1 155 5 3 6.9 3.8
21000 -10.7 12.7 170 9 4 6.8 3.7 | -11.2 11.8 155 4 2 7.1 3.9
20000 -8.8 16.2 165 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -9.2 15.4 155 3 2 7.3 4.0
19500 -7.8 18.0 165 7 4 7.4 4.1 | -8.2 17.2 155 3 1 7.9 4.3
19000 -6.7 19.9 165 6 3 8.2 4.5 | -6.9 19.6 145 3 1 8.9 4.9
18500 -5.5 22.1 165 5 3 8.2 4.5 | -5.6 21.9 135 3 2 8.9 4.9
18000 -4.2 24.4 160 4 2 9.1 5.0 | -4.3 24.3 130 3 2 9.3 5.1
17500 -2.9 26.8 145 3 1 9.2 5.0 | -2.9 26.8 120 4 2 9.3 5.1
17000 -1.6 29.1 100 1 1 9.2 5.0 | -1.6 29.1 115 4 2 9.2 5.1
16500 -0.2 31.6 060 1 1 9.1 5.0 | -0.2 31.6 115 3 2 9.1 5.0
16000 1.1 34.0 025 2 1 9.2 5.0 | 1.1 34.0 120 3 2 9.1 5.0
15500 2.4 36.3 350 2 1 8.6 4.7 | 2.4 36.3 130 2 1 9.1 5.0
15000 3.7 38.7 320 2 1 8.7 4.8 | 3.8 38.8 160 2 1 9.1 5.0
14500 5.0 41.0 300 3 2 8.9 4.9 | 5.1 41.2 205 2 1 9.1 5.0
14000 6.3 43.3 295 5 2 9.0 4.9 | 6.5 43.7 230 2 1 9.1 5.0
13500 7.6 45.7 290 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 7.8 46.0 240 3 1 9.1 5.0
13000 8.9 48.0 290 7 4 8.7 4.7 | 9.2 48.6 250 4 2 9.0 4.9
12500 10.2 50.4 290 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 10.5 50.9 255 4 2 8.9 4.9
12000 11.4 52.5 290 10 5 8.1 4.5 | 11.8 53.2 255 5 3 8.6 4.7
11500 12.6 54.7 290 11 5 8.3 4.6 | 13.0 55.4 255 6 3 8.4 4.6
11000 13.9 57.0 285 11 6 8.0 4.4 | 14.2 57.6 255 6 3 8.2 4.5
10500 15.7 60.3 285 11 6 7.2 4.0 | 16.0 60.8 250 7 4 8.8 4.8
10250 16.2 61.2 285 11 5 6.9 3.8 | 16.7 62.1 250 7 4 9.1 5.0
10000 16.7 62.1 290 10 5 7.0 3.8 | 17.4 63.3 245 7 4 9.0 4.9
9750 17.2 63.0 290 9 5 6.8 3.7 | 18.0 64.4 245 8 4 9.0 5.0
9500 17.7 63.9 290 9 4 5.5 3.0 | 18.7 65.7 245 8 4 9.4 5.1
9250 18.0 64.4 290 8 4 5.3 2.9 | 19.4 66.9 245 8 4 9.5 5.2
9000 18.4 65.1 295 7 3 6.0 3.3 | 20.1 68.2 245 8 4 9.5 5.2
8750 18.8 65.8 295 6 3 5.5 3.0 | 20.8 69.4 245 8 4 9.6 5.2
8500 19.2 66.6 300 5 2 4.0 2.2 | 21.5 70.7 245 8 4 9.6 5.3
8250 19.4 66.9 300 4 2 4.4 2.4 | 22.3 72.1 245 8 4 9.9 5.4
8000 19.8 67.6 300 3 2 6.3 3.5 | 23.0 73.4 245 8 4 10.4 5.7
7750 20.3 68.5 300 3 2 7.0 3.8 | 23.8 74.8 245 8 4 10.4 5.7
7500 20.8 69.4 300 3 1 7.3 4.0 | 24.6 76.3 245 8 4 10.3 5.7
7250 21.3 70.3 300 2 1 7.4 4.1 | 25.3 77.5 245 8 4 10.7 5.9
7000 21.9 71.4 300 2 1 8.1 4.5 | 26.1 79.0 245 8 4 9.5 5.2
6750 22.6 72.7 295 2 1 12.0 6.6 | 26.9 80.4 245 8 4 14.8 8.1
6500 23.9 75.0 295 2 1 25.3 13.9 | 29.3 84.7 245 7 4 61.3 33.6
08/14/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/14/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +142.9 LI... -1.3 | CAPE... +55.0 LI... -0.5
CINH... -1.6 K Index... +26.6 | CINH... -43.0 K Index... +27.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 260 18 9 -0.6 -0.3 | -65.0 -85.0 260 18 9 -0.4 -0.2
45000 -63.4 -82.1 260 27 14 5.5 3.0 | -63.0 -81.4 265 25 13 5.2 2.8
40000 -54.0 -65.2 245 21 11 8.6 4.7 | -54.1 -65.4 250 18 9 8.4 4.6
38000 -48.9 -56.0 245 18 9 8.6 4.7 | -49.1 -56.4 255 15 8 8.3 4.6
36000 -43.7 -46.7 250 14 7 8.3 4.5 | -44.1 -47.4 255 13 7 8.3 4.6
34000 -39.0 -38.2 235 14 7 7.9 4.3 | -39.1 -38.4 260 14 7 8.2 4.5
32000 -34.3 -29.7 220 15 8 7.9 4.3 | -34.2 -29.6 265 15 8 8.3 4.5
30000 -29.7 -21.5 220 15 8 7.6 4.2 | -29.3 -20.7 260 16 8 8.3 4.5
29000 -27.5 -17.5 225 15 8 7.6 4.2 | -26.9 -16.4 255 16 8 8.3 4.6
28000 -25.2 -13.4 225 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -24.4 -11.9 255 17 9 7.6 4.2
27000 -22.8 -9.0 225 15 8 8.2 4.5 | -22.2 -8.0 250 16 8 7.5 4.1
26000 -19.8 -3.6 215 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -19.5 -3.1 240 14 7 7.5 4.1
25000 -17.4 0.7 210 13 7 6.3 3.5 | -17.3 0.9 235 13 7 6.7 3.7
24000 -15.7 3.7 195 11 5 5.8 3.2 | -15.4 4.3 230 12 6 6.5 3.6
23000 -13.9 7.0 175 9 5 5.7 3.2 | -13.5 7.7 220 10 5 6.5 3.6
22000 -12.2 10.0 155 9 5 6.3 3.4 | -11.6 11.1 210 9 5 6.7 3.7
21000 -10.4 13.3 155 8 4 6.5 3.5 | -9.6 14.7 220 9 5 6.8 3.7
20000 -8.5 16.7 155 6 3 6.6 3.6 | -7.7 18.1 230 9 5 6.8 3.7
19500 -7.6 18.3 155 6 3 7.1 3.9 | -6.7 19.9 235 10 5 6.9 3.8
19000 -6.5 20.3 165 5 3 8.2 4.5 | -5.7 21.7 240 10 5 7.0 3.9
18500 -5.3 22.5 185 5 2 8.2 4.5 | -4.6 23.7 240 10 5 7.0 3.9
18000 -4.1 24.6 195 5 3 8.7 4.8 | -3.6 25.5 240 10 5 7.2 3.9
17500 -2.8 27.0 205 5 3 8.7 4.8 | -2.5 27.5 240 10 5 7.3 4.0
17000 -1.5 29.3 210 5 3 9.0 4.9 | -1.5 29.3 240 10 5 7.7 4.2
16500 -0.1 31.8 210 5 3 9.5 5.2 | -0.2 31.6 240 9 5 9.0 4.9
16000 1.3 34.3 215 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 1.1 34.0 240 9 5 8.9 4.9
15500 2.7 36.9 215 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 2.5 36.5 240 9 5 9.5 5.2
15000 4.1 39.4 215 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 3.9 39.0 240 8 4 9.4 5.2
14500 5.6 42.1 215 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 5.3 41.5 240 8 4 9.5 5.2
14000 7.0 44.6 215 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 6.7 44.1 240 7 4 9.5 5.2
13500 8.5 47.3 215 7 3 9.7 5.3 | 8.1 46.6 240 7 3 9.5 5.2
13000 9.9 49.8 220 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 9.6 49.3 235 6 3 9.5 5.2
12500 11.4 52.5 220 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 11.0 51.8 230 5 3 9.4 5.2
12000 12.8 55.0 220 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 12.3 54.1 220 5 2 9.0 4.9
11500 14.2 57.6 220 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 13.7 56.7 210 4 2 10.2 5.6
11000 15.7 60.3 225 9 5 9.7 5.3 | 15.2 59.4 200 4 2 8.9 4.9
10500 17.9 64.2 225 10 5 10.0 5.5 | 17.3 63.1 185 5 2 9.7 5.3
10250 18.6 65.5 225 10 5 9.8 5.4 | 18.0 64.4 175 5 3 9.3 5.1
10000 19.4 66.9 225 10 5 9.9 5.4 | 18.7 65.7 170 5 3 9.4 5.1
9750 20.1 68.2 230 11 5 9.9 5.4 | 19.4 66.9 165 6 3 9.4 5.1
9500 20.9 69.6 230 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 20.0 68.0 160 6 3 8.8 4.8
9250 21.6 70.9 230 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 20.7 69.3 150 6 3 8.8 4.8
9000 22.3 72.1 230 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 21.4 70.5 145 7 4 9.3 5.1
8750 23.1 73.6 230 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 22.1 71.8 145 8 4 9.2 5.0
8500 23.8 74.8 230 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 22.7 72.9 140 8 4 8.4 4.6
8250 24.5 76.1 230 12 6 10.0 5.5 | 23.3 73.9 135 9 5 8.1 4.4
8000 25.3 77.5 230 13 6 10.4 5.7 | 23.9 75.0 135 9 5 8.5 4.7
7750 26.1 79.0 235 13 7 10.5 5.7 | 24.5 76.1 130 10 5 8.4 4.6
7500 26.9 80.4 235 13 7 10.4 5.7 | 25.1 77.2 130 11 5 7.8 4.3
7250 27.6 81.7 235 13 7 10.8 5.9 | 25.7 78.3 125 11 6 7.6 4.2
7000 28.4 83.1 235 13 7 9.3 5.1 | 26.3 79.3 125 12 6 7.8 4.3
6750 29.2 84.6 235 13 6 14.8 8.1 | 26.9 80.4 125 12 6 8.8 4.8
6500 31.7 89.1 235 12 6 67.3 36.9 | 27.6 81.7 125 10 5 13.7 7.5
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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