Great Lakes Ice Forecasts - Text

Graphical Ice Forecasts Text Ice Forecasts Ice Climatology MODIS Satellite

Great Lakes Ice Outlook (CLEICELIO)

Issued Monday Wednesday Friday (product only valid when ice is present on the Great Lakes)

Freeze-Up/Break-Up Outlook (NWS CLE)

Typically only issued in Nov/Dec. Otherwise, below text will be blank.

    
                        
800
FZUS81 KCLE 221129
ICEGL

GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025


...Great Lakes Ice Season for 2025-2026 expected to Be Near Average
Ice Cover...


After the first half of December with significantly cold weather
across the entirety of the Great Lakes, we are in the midst of a
pattern change for the region heading through the end of the month
and into 2026.

During the colder period we experienced, heat removal from the lakes
has been efficient with some ice formation over the typical first-
freeze areas and water temperatures steadily dropping. Through the
beginning of this past weekend, average overall temperatures across
Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan are near normal, and Lake Erie
is approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for this time of
year. Lake Superior is in the upper 30s to lower 40s, Lake Michigan
in the lower 40s, Lake Huron in the lower to mid 40s, and Lake Erie
in the mid to upper 30s. Lake Erie is ready to freeze at this point,
and has had ice formation around the islands and into the western
basin, which is typically one of the earliest to freeze. Lake St.
Clair, Saginaw Bay, and portions of Green Bay also have ice
coverage. The St. Marys River is near freezing, the Straits of
Mackinac are down into the mid 30s, and the Detroit River is near
freezing as well. Satellite derived water temperatures are also
showing decreased water temperatures along the bulk of the Great
Lakes shorelines.

Current Great Lakes ice coverage stands at approximately 4.5
percent, mainly occupying the smaller bays and inlets. Open water
areas of the Great Lakes are ice-free with the exception of some
decaying ice in the western basin of Lake Erie.

As mentioned, a pattern change is expected heading towards 2026.
Weak La Nina remains in effect, but the current conditions are
dominated by other teleconnections. A dominant upper level ridge has
formed, and will persist over the next couple of weeks over the
Alaskan Aleutian Islands. This is the most significant feature in
the western hemisphere and is driving the downstream longwave upper
level pattern from the west coast to the Great Lakes. Downstream
from the Aleutian ridge will be upper level troughing from the
British Columbia coast in Canada all the way south into California.
Active weather is expected along the Pacific coast, while another
upper level ridge will develop over the eastern third of the
continental U.S. A milder pattern for the Great Lakes is going to
emerge this week as areas of low pressure that come through will be
dominated by Pacific-originating systems with only occasional and
relatively short lived Arctic airmasses dropping in from Canada and
through the Great Lakes. Ultimately, this is going to result in a
period of temperatures oscillating above and below freezing on a
daily scale over the next couple of weeks for the southern Great
Lakes, largely not conducive to significant ice formation without
any sustained sub freezing weather. Further north, while the above
normal temperature pattern is expected, expecting more heat removal
from Lake Superior and the northern half of Lakes Michigan and Huron
with sub freezing weather still expected.


Ice formation is determined by two factors: The amount of heat
stored in the water from the summer and how fast that heat can be
removed by arctic outbreaks of Polar/Arctic air and high winds. Long
range outlooks do not consider the "storminess" factor which can
significantly alter the thermal structure of the lakes over short
periods of time.


        Temperature  Forecasts for Selected Cities

 Location   12/23   12/24   12/25   12/26   12/27   12/28
   Duluth  24  30  14  32  24  35  21  28  19  30   8  19
Marquette  28  37  21  33  28  37  26  30  21  32  17  24
 GreenBay  26  39  21  37  32  41  30  35  26  37  17  26
Milwaukee  33  42  30  42  39  44  37  42  32  41  23  30
  Chicago  37  46  35  41  41  48  41  48  37  44  28  35
 Muskegon  37  41  28  39  35  46  35  42  30  39  26  32
   Alpena  30  39  23  32  30  39  28  35  21  33  21  28
  Detroit  32  46  30  39  35  51  39  50  32  44  28  35
   Toledo  37  48  30  39  39  57  44  53  37  46  30  37
Cleveland  37  48  32  41  39  57  44  55  37  46  30  37
  Buffalo  32  42  30  35  30  46  39  46  28  41  28  37


          Freezing Degree Day Accumulation Forecast

 Location   12/23   12/24   12/25   12/26   12/27   12/28

Duluth      519     528     531     539     547     579
Marquette   396     401     401     405     411     423
GreenBay    350     353     349     349     350     361
Milwaukee   222     219     210     203     199     205
Chicago     171     166     154     142     134     135
Muskegon    120     119     111     105     103     106
Alpena      225     230     228     229     234     242
Detroit     137     135     125     113     108     109
Toledo      157     155     140     124     115     114
Cleveland   95      91      76      59      50      49
Buffalo     116     116     111     101     99      99


THIS IS THE FINAL FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE 2025-2026 SEASON. M-W-F
ICE FORECASTS WILL BE GIN FRIDAY, JANUARY 2ND 2026.

$$

Marsalek