National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

The Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS) is an experimental product/service that will be posted to this page for evaluation from January 27, 2022 to May 31, 2023. During this period, we encourage your comments or suggestions for improvement. Your feedback will help us determine product/service utility, if modifications are needed, and whether the product/service should become part of our operational suite.

This product/service is a graphic that depicts the probabilities of reaching certain river stages based on the standard probabilities of 95%, 90%, 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5%. This product is intended to give users an overview of the flood risk in the Red River of the North Basin for the next 90 days during the spring snowmelt season.

The Product Description Document can be found here.

Feedback/comments regarding this product can be submitted via a survey or can be directed to Amanda Lee, NWS Grand Forks Service Hydrologist, through e-mail:

Prototype/Under Development: Prototype is for demonstration/test purposes only—Not to be relied on for operational decision making. This prototype is not supported 24/7 and may be discontinued at any time without advance notice. 

This page was last updated on January 26, 2023.


For instructions on how to read the PFOS graphics, click the thumbnail image below.


Use the map below to view forecast point PFOS Graphics

(click a site marker below, then click on the image to expand)