Green Bay, WI

Weather Forecast Office

2026 Spring Flood Outlooks

Flood Outlook Mid February 2026 - Preliminary Outlook

Key Points

Overall, the risk of spring flooding is below average. Minor flooding could still occur in areas that are typically prone to flooding in the spring. At this time, due to the above average snowpack in western Upper Michigan, the only river system that is expected to see an above average risk of flooding potential in relation to climatology is the Menominee River.
Factors increasing spring flood risk are above normal frost depth and river ice all areas, along with average to above average snow depth and water equivalent over northern WI where winter precipitation amounts of rain and melted snow thus far has been above normal.
Factors decreasing spring flood risk are continuation of drought conditions leading to below normal soil moisture, along with near average river flows.
Considerations: Spring precipitation is forecast to be above normal again this year. If heavier rain and/or late season snow occurs with a more rapid melt following, the overall flood risk will increase. Despite frost depths above 3 feet in some locations, if near surface soil temperatures rise at or above freezing, moisture from rain or melting snow will be able to infiltrate the ground instead of going directly to runoff.

What Has Changed

This is the first preliminary outlook of the spring flood season

Flood Outlook Details
Flood Risk Factors
Temperature and Precipitation
River Outlooks
How to Prepare & Safety

Seasonal Flood Outlook Probability Table for Wisconsin and Yellow River Forecast Locations

Seasonal Flood Outlook Probability Table for Menominee River Forecast Locations

Seasonal Flood Outlook Probability Table for Eastern Wisconsin Rivers Forecast Locations

Seasonal Flood Outlook Graphics (select site on map, select 'Full Gauge Page' on top of hydrograph, then scroll down)

Hydrographs with the Official Forecast River Forecast. The forecasts use 48 hours of precipitation April 1 to Sep 30 and 24 hours of precipitation from Oct 1 to March 31.

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood outlook or the new river forecast website please contact:

Jason Alumbaugh

Hydrology Program Manager

National Weather Service Green Bay

jason.alumbaugh@noaa.gov

Flood Risk Factors

Current Conditions (some images auto update and conditions may differ from when the spring flood outlook was issued)

Snow Water Equivalent (inches)	Ranked Snow Water Equivalent	Frost Depth (inches) 2/9/26

Soil Temperature 2/9/26	Current Streamflow Percentile	Soil Moisture Percentile - Climate Prediction Center

30 Day Precipitation Departure From Normal	4 Month Precipitation Departure from Normal	U.S. Drought Monitor

Looking Ahead (images auto update)

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Extended outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

Flood Risk and River Outlooks

Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period

Chance of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages by location. More information is here.


Menominee River near Florence	Menominee River at Niagara	Menominee River at Vulcan	Menominee River near McAllister

Wolf River (WI) at Langlade	Wisconsin River at Rothschild	Oconto River near Oconto	Yellow River (WI) at Babcock

Wisconsin River at Wisconsin Rapids	Waupaca River near Waupaca	Little Wolf River at Royalton	Wolf River (WI) at Shiocton

Wolf River (WI) at New London	Fox River (North) at Appleton

Long Range Outlooks

Weekly Probability of Exceeding Flood Stage by Location. More information is here.


Menominee River near Florence	Menominee River at Niagara	Menominee River at Vulcan	Menominee River near McAllister

Wolf River (WI) at Langlade	Wisconsin River at Rothschild	Oconto River near Oconto	Yellow River (WI) at Babcock

Wisconsin River at Wisconsin Rapids	Waupaca River near Waupaca	Little Wolf River at Royalton	Wolf River (WI) at Shiocton

Wolf River (WI) at New London	Fox River (North) at Appleton

10 Day River Outlook

Includes 10 days of precipitation, snowmelt, and temperature. These are automated forecasts with no human forecaster intervention that update twice per day. More information is here.


Menominee River near Florence	Menominee River at Niagara	Menominee River at Vulcan	Menominee River near McAllister

Wolf River (WI) at Langlade	Wisconsin River at Rothschild	Oconto River near Oconto	Yellow River (WI) at Babcock

Wisconsin River at Wisconsin Rapids	Waupaca River near Waupaca	Little Wolf River at Royalton	Wolf River (WI) at Shiocton

Wolf River (WI) at New London	Fox River (North) at Appleton

How To Prepare & Safety

Preparedness/Early Actions:

Get a NOAA Weather Radio to be alerted to flash flood warnings and river flood warnings
Monitor weather forecasts for heavy rain potential
Have a communications plan for your family and a place to meet in higher ground.
Monitor river levels and forecasted river levels online: (NWPS, USGS, GRB)
Know a safe way to exit your home and neighborhood and avoid any roads susceptible to flooding
Prepare your home:
- Consider flood insurance, especially if you are in a flood prone area - (may require 30 day notice)
- Make sure your sump pump is working and consider a backup.
- Have a professional install check-values to prevent floodwaters from backing up into the drains of your home
- Keep important documents in a waterproof, elevated container, not in the basement.
- Remove snow from roof, downspout area, and away from base of home
- Finish any outdoor projects that may be affected by heavy rain or flood waters
Prepare (Flood Ready, Flood Safety)

How To Stay Safe During a Flood:

Heed evacuation orders and evacuate your home if it is at risk
Turn Around, Don't Drown - never drive through flooded roads
- You do not know how deep the water is or if the road has been washed out
- You may damage your vehicle
- You put yourself and first responders at risk

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