Hurricane Saftety Awareness Week - Friday

The National Weather Service has declared the week of July 17th
through 19th HURRICANE SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK in New England.
This is the last in a series of five public information
statements to be issued by the National Weather Service Office
in Gray containing information on hurricanes and hurricane safety.

FRIDAY - THE FORECAST PROCESS--STATEMENTS, WATCHES, and WARNINGS

One part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS)
is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches,
warnings, forecasts, statements, and other pertinent information.
These products are used by emergency management and response
personnel, broadcast meteorologists, and the public.

During hurricanes and tropical storms, the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) and local National Weather Service offices across
the country share in the responsibility for providing critical
weather information to the public. To do so, the Hurricane
Center and local offices closely coordinate on the forecast,
in order to provide consistent information to the public.
Consequently, the normal zone forecasts may be delayed during
these situations.

To make accurate forecasts, forecasters rely on a combination of
observations, analyses, statistics, and computer generated
guidance in making their predictions.

Standard observing equipment such as satellites, buoys, and
land based observations are all important in locating and
tracking the storm.  In addition, reconnaissance aircraft fly
through the storms to take and collect special observations and
to drop specialized instruments called dropsondes into the
storms to gather additional information. As these storms
approach land, radar observations become increasingly important.
Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations
are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings.
Once the observations have been collected, the data are checked
for quality, analyzed, and used as the starting conditions for
a variety of weather prediction models.
 
The weather prediction models start with the observed
conditions and perform millions of calculations to generate
predictions of the hurricane track and intensity and of the
general conditions of the atmosphere surrounding the storm.
Both the National Hurricane Center and local offices evaluate
these computer predictions, coordinate and collaborate, and
decide on a consistent forecast to be released to the media
and the public.  Once the coordination is complete, both the
National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather
Service office are responsible for issuing a variety of
forecast, watch, and warning products to the public.

Like all weather-related threats, the National Weather Service
relies on a watch and warning program to alert the public to
the potential dangers from tropical storms and hurricanes.  

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH/HURRICANE WATCH is issued when tropical
storm/hurricane force winds are possible along the coast
within 48 hours. If you haven't done so prior to the issuance
of the watch, it's a good time to begin preparations for the
potential storm, especially for those actions that require
extra time.

A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING is issued when tropical
storm/hurricane force winds are expected along the coast
within 36 hours. Once a warning has been issued, you should
complete any preparatory actions and get to a safe location.

Once the storm arrives, stay in the safe location until the
storm has completely passed.  Don't be fooled by the eye of
the storm, which can mislead people into thinking that the
storm is over. Winds and rain will increase rapidly
immediately after the eye passes overhead.

While the National Hurricane Center issues HURRICANE and
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES and WARNINGS for the COAST, the local
National Weather Service office is responsible for issuing
numerous watches, warnings, and advisories for various local
hazards associated with or preceding the storm, both along the
coast and inland. These include:

               COASTAL FLOOD
               INLAND TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
               FLOOD
               FLASH FLOOD
               SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
               TORNADO

While issued separately, these watches and warnings are
generally summarized by each local National Weather Service
office in HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTs. In addition, each local
office issues a variety of forecasts and information
statements during hurricanes or tropical storms.

In addition to tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings,
the National Hurricane Center and the Tropical Prediction
Center issue numerous other products that can be very useful
in tracking and assessing the potential hazards from
tropical systems. These include:

  STORM SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS (Issued 4 times daily from June 1st
                             to Nov. 30th)
  PUBLIC ADVISORIES (Issued every 6 hours as needed)
  INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES (Issued every 2 to 3 hours
                                  as needed)
  FORECAST/ADVISORIES (Issued every 6 hours as needed)
  FORECAST DISCUSSIONS (Issued every 6 hours as needed)
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY FORECASTS (Issued every 6 hours
                                    as needed)

QUESTION OF THE DAY: During which month are tropical storms
most likely to develop?

While the frequency of tropical storms increases in July,
the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season runs
between August 1 and October 31. According to the historical
record from 1886 to 1997, the peak month for tropical storm
activity is September. Below is the percentage of the storms
that developed in each month.

               Month       Percentage of Storms
               May                  1%
               June                 6%
               July                 8%
               August              24%
               September           34%
               October             21%
               November             5%
               December             1%

FACT FOR THE DAY: In 2006, the National Hurricane Center began
issuing public forecast of wind probabilities for various
locations along the coast. These numbers are generated
statistically, and due to the uncertainty in forecasting the
track and intensity, the numbers may seem rather low,
especially days before landfall. Don't be fooled by the low
probabilities; even though your probability is low, you may
be in the area most likely to be hit by the storm.

Here's a list of topics that were covered earlier this week:

Monday - Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes-
         The Basics
Tuesday - Hurricane Winds and Tornadoes
Wednesday - Storm Surge and Marine Safety
Thursday - Inland Flooding

For additional information about hurricanes and hurricane
safety, visit the National Hurricane Center's web site at:

              http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

$$

Watson
National Weather Service
Gray...Maine
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