Severe Weather in the Central Plains; Fire Concerns in the Southern High Plains and Southwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

Severe storms, including large hail, wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are possible in the central Plains. Dry, windy conditions and lightning from dry thunderstorms may produce hazardous fire conditions in the Southwest and southern High Plains. Late-season snow is expected in the Northwest and the Great Basin. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Sat, May 16, 2026 at 1:02:38 pm CDT

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National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Tuesday

Forecast Summary

A Marginal risk for severe weather exists Sunday afternoon and evening across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

Monday afternoon into Monday night currently looks to feature the best chance for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with an Enhanced Risk across western Osage and Pawnee counties and a Slight Risk extending eastward to a Eureka Springs to Fort Smith to Antlers line. A Marginal Risk extends across the rest of northwest and west central Arkansas, as well as far southeast Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather, including higher end threats, will be possible.

There is a 15 percent chance of severe weather along and north of a line from Atoka to Mena Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Severe weather details will depend on the position of a cold front. Changes to the forecast should be expected.

The threat for excessive rainfall looks to peak on Tuesday. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists along and southeast of I-44, with a Marginal Risk for areas to the northwest of I-44. Average amounts from 0.5 to 1.5 inches should be expected, with localized totals in the 2 to 3 inch range. Localized flash flooding may result.

Periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances will exist Saturday morning, with more organized and widespread thunderstorms and severe weather potential likely to develop late in the weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler weather toward the early to middle part of next week.

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Severe Weather in the Central Plains; Fire Concerns in the Southern High Plains and Southwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK