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We will see a brown Christmas this year, as southern Wisconsin has remained very warm so far during the month of December 2015. What is the frequency of this occurring?
Let's take a look at the probabilities of having a white Christmas. Note that a white Christmas is defined to be one that has a measure of snow cover (i.e., snow depth) of one inch or more. Snow depth of zero inches or a "Trace" would not be considered for a white Christmas. The below map shows these probabilities across the nation:
Click on the image to enlarge
For southern Wisconsin, this shows probabilities of a white Christmas between 40% and 70%. Specifically for Milwaukee and Madison, here are the probabilities of seeing 1", 5", and 10" of snow on the ground for Christmas.
| Snow Depth | 1" | 5" | 10" |
| Milwaukee | 60% | 10% | 3% |
| Madison | 67% | 20% | 7% |
Thus, about 2 out of 3 Christmas Days at Milwaukee and Madison have at least 1" of snow on the ground. From this, we can say that about 1 out of 3 Christmas Days, or about 33% of Christmas Days, tend to not have snow on the ground.
These probabilities come from this webpage from the National Weather Service office in central Oklahoma: https://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-whitechristmas.
Here's some other Christmas Day statistics for Milwaukee and Madison:
| Milwaukee (year) | Madison (year) | |
| Highest Temp | 61 (1982) | 56 (1982) |
| Lowest Temp | -12 (1983) | -21 (2000) |
| Wettest | 0.96 (2009) | 0.67 (1876) |
| Most Snowfall | 6.0 (1909) | 3.5 (1950) |
| Highest Snow Depth | 25.0 (2000) | 16.0 (1985) |
Normal high/low temperatures for Christmas Day:
Milwaukee: 30/18
Madison: 28/13
Data for Christmas Day over the past 10 years:
Milwaukee
| YEAR | HIGH | LOW | PRECIP | SNOWFALL | SNOW DEPTH |
| 2014 | 41 | 34 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2013 | 24 | 15 | 0.08 | 1.5 | 10 |
| 2012 | 31 | 21 | T | T | 1 |
| 2011 | 42 | 31 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 33 | 28 | 0.03 | 0.6 | T |
| 2009 | 42 | 23 | 0.96 | T | 2 |
| 2008 | 28 | 0 | T | T | 13 |
| 2007 | 39 | 18 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 2006 | 38 | 31 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2005 | 36 | 33 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 2 |
Madison
| YEAR | HIGH | LOW | PRECIP | SNOWFALL | SNOW DEPTH |
| 2014 | 42 | 32 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2013 | 23 | 11 | 0.09 | 2.2 | 9 |
| 2012 | 19 | 8 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 2011 | 43 | 23 | 0.00 | 0.0 | T |
| 2010 | 30 | 20 | T | T | 7 |
| 2009 | 40 | 17 | 0.49 | 1 | 5 |
| 2008 | 21 | -7 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 15 |
| 2007 | 37 | 20 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 5 |
| 2006 | 33 | 26 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2005 | 36 | 32 | T | T | 4 |
Last 10 years with snow free Christmas Days (no snow on the ground AND no new fallen snow):
| MILWAUKEE | MADISON |
| 2014 | 2014 |
| 2011 | 2006 |
| 2006 | 1982 |
| 1998 | 1979 |
| 1995 | 1971 |
| 1986 | 1955 |
| 1982 | 1943 |
| 1955 | 1939 |
| 1943 | 1936 |
| 1939 | 1931 |
With the brown Christmas this year, and with last year being a brown Christmas, this will be an instance of two consecutive years without a white Christmas. Has this happened before?
The short answer is yes, both Milwaukee and Madison have had consecutive years of a brown Christmas. The below table shows the consecutive years of a brown Christmas for Milwaukee and Madison, and what was measured for each year:
| Milwaukee | Madison |
| 2010 (T), 2011 (0") | 2002 (0"), 2003 (T) |
| 2001 (T), 2002 (0"), 2003 (T), 2004 (0") | 1975 (T), 1976 (T) |
| 1988 (T), 1989 (T), 1990 (0"), 1991 (T), 1992 (T), 1993 (0"), 1994 (T), 1995 (0") | 1957 (0"), 1958 (T) |
| 1976 (T), 1977 (T) | 1952 (T), 1953 (T) |
| 1967 (T), 1968 (T) | 1939 (0"), 1940 (T), 1941 (T) |
| 1952 (T), 1953 (T), 1954 (T), 1955 (0"), 1956 (T), 1957 (0"), 1958 (T) | 1931 (0"), 1932 (T) |
| 1948 (T), 1949 (T) | 1927 (T), 1928 (T) |
*Note: Milwaukee began taking snow depth measurements in 1948, while Madison began taking them in 1904.
Schultz/Miller/Wood
NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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