A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of AZ today, including Maricopa County, Northwest Pinal County, and Southern Gila County. Widespread light to moderate showers will continue through today, with activity declining and shifting east of the area tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as well and lead to higher rain-rates and areas of flash flooding, especially if multiple track over the same spot. The long duration rainfall will also lead to slower response flooding in washes, creeks, streams, and rivers.
A longer duration and widespread rain event will continue through tonight, with moderate to at times heavy rain. Rainfall will be most persistent over southwest-facing slopes and higher terrain areas, which could receive upwards of 2"-4"+ over 24-36 hours. Rises in area washes, creeks, streams, and rivers can be expected at a minimum.
A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for today. Along with the heightened flash flood potential, a few embedded/isolated thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally strong to severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out (2% probability).
There is a high chance (60-99%) that much of southcentral AZ will receive >0.50"-1.00" tonight through Sunday. There is even around a 50-90% chance that some areas NE of Phoenix could receive 3.00"+.
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