NWS Forecast Office Tucson, AZ

The changing upper-level weather pattern will result in a more favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms producing rainfall in excess of 1 inch east of Tucson today. The Weather Prediction Service (WPC) has included Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties into the 'Slight" risk (the area in yellow on the image) for flash flooding in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today. In this area, the REFS has indicated a 20-40 percent probability that storms will produce rainfall that exceeds an inch this afternoon into this evening...with the highest probability along the Arizona/New Mexico border.