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WFO Phoenix Research Page

This page summarizes the research activities of WFO Phoenix. Research topics are categorized. Within each section, entries are divided according to the presentation venue and then chronologically within these sections.


Journal Articles

Carlaw, L., Cohen, A., and Rogers, J., 2015: An Investigation of Convection During the North American Monsoon Across Central and Southern Arizona, Part I: A Climatological Perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 32, 361-375, doi:

Rogers, J., Cohen, A., and Carlaw, L., 2016: An Investigation of Convection During the North American Monsoon Across Central and Southern Arizona, Part II: Applications to Operational Meteorology. Wea. Forecasting, 32, 377-390, doi:


Conference Presentations

Jones, C., Hopper, Jr., L., Iñiguez, P., 2021: Warm Season Climatology of Vicinity Versus Prevailing Thunderstorms at Continental U.S. Airports. 101st AMS Annual Meeting, Virtual.

Hjelmstad, A., Shrestha, A., Garcia, M., Hopper, Jr., L., Iñiguez, P., and Mascaro, G., 2021: Propagation of Radar Rainfall Uncertainty into Urban Flood Predictions During the North American Monsoon. 101st AMS Annual Meeting, Virtual

Hopper, Jr., L., Hjelmstad, A., Iñiguez, P., and Mascaro, G., 2020: Leveraging Flash Flood Reports and QPE Skill to Implement Impact-Based Warnings in the Phoenix Metro. 45th NWA Annual Meeting, Virtual.

Rogers, J., Meltzer, S., Iniquez, P., 2020: Radar-Based Characteristics of Dust Storms in Arizona. Dust Workshop 2020, Tucson, AZ.

Lebel, L., Iniquez, P., Rogers, J., Tyle, K., 2020: A Machine Learning Approach to Severe Thunderstorm Downburst Prediction Across Phoenix Arizona. Severe Local Storms Symposium, Boston MA.

Schaffner, M., and Taylor, A., 2017: Providing Decision Support Services to a Community below a recent Burned Area: Cedar Creek Arizona. NHWC.

Green, D., 2007: Heat waves in a hot place: Examination of intense heat episodes in the Phoenix Arizona metropolitan area during July 2003-2005-2006. 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. Park City, UT.


Technical Notes & Local Studies

Operational Success with Distributed Modeling to Inform Flash Flood Warning Operations at Weather Forecast Office San Diego. Schaffner, M., and Coauthors, 2017.

Blowing Dust and Dust Storms: One of Arizona's Most Underrated Weather Hazards. Lader, G., Raman, A., Davis, J., and Waters, K., July 2016.

Re-Evaluating Estimates of Temporally-Downscaled Climatological Precipitation Probabilities. Hirsch, M., 2013.

2011 Wildfire in the Mountainous Terrain of Southeast Arizona: Verification of Empirical Formulas used to Estimate 1-Year through 10-Year Peak Discharge from Post-Burn Watersheds and Associated Increased Flash Flood Potential of Post-Burn Hyper-Concentrated Flows. Reed, W., Schaffner, M., Kahler, C., and Boyle, E., May 2012.

Review of the Well-Collaborated but Poorly-Forecasted Weather Event of Late January 2009. Green, D., 2009.

Effects of Wildfire in the Mountanous Terrain of Southeast Arizona: Empirical Formulas to Estimate from 1-Year through 10-Year Peak Discharge from Post-Burn Watersheds. Reed, W., and Schaffner, M., July 2008.

Gridded Forecast Verification at WFO Phoenix. Green D., and Breckenridge, C., 2006.

Analysis of the 18 July 2005 Microburst Wind Event at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport: A Comparison of the WSR-88D and TDWR Radars. Fowle, M., May 2006.

Unexpected Widespread Rain over South-Central Arizona on 4 December 2004. Green, D., February 2006.

Strong Wind Event of 18-19 February 2004 - A WES Case. Green, D., 2005.

Microbursts over South-Central Arizona on 22 August 2003. Green, D., 2004.

Western Gila County Arizona Flash Flood on 9 September 2003. Green, D., 2004.

Dense Fog over South-Central Arizona on 9 January 2003 and the UPS Radiation Fog Paper. Green, D., 2003.

Severe Weather Outbreak in the Phoenix AZ Area on 14 July 2002 - A WES Case. Green, D., 2003.

WSR-88D VAD Wind Profile Data Influenced by Bird Migration over the Southwest United States. Haro, J., January 1997.

CLIMATE OF PHOENIX, ARIZONA. Schmidli, R., and Austin Jamison, 1996.