Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain in the Central Plains to Upper Midwest; Extreme Heat in Parts of the South

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms may also produce flash/urban flooding. Critical fire weather conditions expected in the Great Basin and interior Northwest. Dangerous heat continues across the Southwest and Southeast. Read More >

Overview

On June 23, 2023, a volatile atmosphere developed across the eastern plains of southern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly flow with an imbedded short wave would pass over the region. This allowed for a mass flux of air to the NNW, which pulled upper 60°F to near 70°F dewpoints into the area. These conditions allowed for an increase in environmental factors, such as shear and CAPE, that would become highly supportive of intense severe storms. During the afternoon, a tight dryline materialized across the eastern plains; this would become the initiation point of the Prowers County Supercell. In addition to that, robust orographic forcing was taking place across the Raton Mesa area; this would become the initiation point for the Baca County Supercell. As both storms moved east, they encountered the much more favorable air across the far eastern plains area. With the isolated nature to the storms, they quickly took advantage of the environment and became supercellular. Both storms would go on to produce large hail and photogenic, but damaging, tornadoes.

Structured supercell with tornado underneath from Prowers County. Photo By: Taylor Wright

Tornado
Photos & Video
Storm Reports
Environment

Tornadoes

Tornado - 13 South Granada
Prowers County

Date	06/23/23
Time (Local)	5:40-6:22 PM
EF Rating	EF-3
Est. Peak Winds	155 MPH
Path Length	10.1 Miles
Max Width	320 Yards
Injuries/Deaths	0/0
Summary: A well documented strong and long lasting EF-3 tornado meandered across Prowers County south of Granada, Colorado, on June 23, 2023, remaining over open countryside for most of its life. Early during the tornadoes lifespan, it heavily impacted a family farm. Two wooden barns were completely destroyed, with little evidence remaining of them other than the outline where they once stood. A metal farm outbuilding was virtually gone, with only the twisted steel beam reinforcements remaining. The primary family house was completely destroyed, with only a part of an interior wall still in place. After impacting the family home, the tornado continued to the southeast and knocked down power lines along County Road 25 before heading back into open countryside and dissipating.

Track Map


Primary Family Home Destroyed	Metal Farm Outbuilding Destroyed	Twisted Metal Supports from Metal Farm Outbuilding	Large Trucks Slammed into Each Other

Tornado - 16 Southeast Campo
Baca County

Date	06/23/23
Time (Local)	6:33-6:56 PM
EF Rating	EF-1
Est. Peak Winds	110 MPH
Path Length	8.5 Miles
Max Width	Unknown
Injuries/Deaths	0/0
Summary: There was also a second damaging tornado, rated EF-1, that occurred this day on June 23, 2023. This tornado drifted across mostly open rural land across far southern Baca County east of Campo, Colorado for most of its lifespan. At a point during the middle of the tornadoes life, it impacted an abandoned farm stead, damaging two structures on the property. After hitting this property, it continued to track eastward across County Road 43, where it knocked down wooden power poles. Also at this time, the tornado passed a couple hundred yards to the north of an occupied family farm, but no damage was reported at this location. After crossing County Road 43, the tornado drifted back into open countryside and began deviating to the NNE, where it eventually dissipated near County Road 45.

Track Map


Wide View of Damage at Abandoned Farmstead. Photo By: Sharalee Hoffman	Damaged Farmhouse. Photo By: Sharalee Hoffman	Damaged Farmhouse. Photo By: Sharalee Hoffman	Snapped Power Pole Along County Road 43. Photo By: Sharalee Hoffman

Tornado - Second Tornado With Prowers County Storm
Prowers County

Date	06/23/23
Time (Local)	Unknown
EF Rating	EF-U
Est. Peak Winds	Unknown
Path Length	Unknown
Max Width	Unknown
Injuries/Deaths	0/0
Summary: In addition, there was a third tornado on this day. This tornado occurred in eastern Prowers County after the initial tornado. No known damage at this time from this tornado. In the absence of damage, this tornado will be rated EF-Unknown.

The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories:

EF0 Weak 65-85 mph	EF1 Moderate 86-110 mph	EF2 Significant 111-135 mph	EF3 Severe 136-165 mph	EF4 Extreme 166-200 mph	EF5 Catastrophic 200+ mph

Photos & Video

Prowers County Supercell and Tornadoes


EF-3 Tornado Over Prowers County Photo By: Wesley Luginbyhl	Twin Tornadoes. EF-3 Tornado on the Left and EF-U Tornado on the Right Photo By: Taylor Wright	Highly Structured Supercell with EF-3 Tornado Photo By: Spencer Dant	Highly Structured Supercell with EF-3 Tornado Photo By: Jake Thompson

Baca County Supercell and Tornado


EF-1 Tornado Over Baca County Photo From: Sharalee Hoffman	EF-1 Tornado Over Baca County from Oklahoma Photo From: Sharalee Hoffman	EF-1 Tornado Over Baca County Photo By: Ryan Schnaufer	Backside of Supercell and EF-1 Tornado Photo By: Ryan Schnaufer

Storm Reports

Attached is a link to the PNS report and a picture of the preliminary storm reports.

PNS Link: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PUB&product=PNS&format=CI&version=3&glossary=0

Storm Report Map Below:

Environment

Synoptic Environment:


Figure 1: 500mb at 6PM MDT June 23rd (00z June 24th)	Figure 2: 700mb at 6PM MDT June 23rd (00z June 24th)	Figure 3: Analyzed Surface Map at 6PM MDT June 23rd (00z June 24th)

Near-Storm Environment


Figure 4: Effective Shear. This parameter is similar to the 0-6 km bulk wind difference, though it accounts for storm depth (effective inflow base to EL) and is designed to identify both surface-based and "elevated" supercell environments. Supercells become more probable as the effective bulk wind difference increases in magnitude through the range of 25-40 kt and greater. Much of the eastern plains had 45-60 knots of Effective Shear	Figure 5: MLCAPE (Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the mean potential energy conditions available to parcels of air located in the lowest 100-mb when lifted to the level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction. The higher this values, the more energy for storms. MLCAPE values were 3000-3500 J/kg across the eastern plains. In addition to that, SBCAPE was 5000+ J/kg	Figure 6: 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity (SRH). SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells. The eastern plains had values off 150-400m2/s2.

Figure 7: Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective bulk wind difference (EBWD), effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH), 100-mb mean parcel CAPE (mlCAPE), 100-mb mean parcel CIN (mlCIN), and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (mlLCL). A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1 within an hour of tornado occurrence, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings. Much of the eastern plains had values between 2-4 one June 23, 2023.

Figure 8: Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP). A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell "threshold" values, and larger values of SCP denote greater "overlap" in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells. The SCP values across the eastern plains were 12-20.

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Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain in the Central Plains to Upper Midwest; Extreme Heat in Parts of the South

23 June 2023 Prowers and Baca Tornadoes