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Texas Severe Thunderstorms; Central Rockies Snow; Fire Weather in the West

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast across parts of northern California and the Southwest again Monday. Heavy snow is forecast over parts of the central Rockies from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Read More >


Latest Flood-Related Watches, Warnings, and Statements


SEW Hydrology Discussion (Flood Season Only)

Updated every 6 hours around 330 AM/PM and 930 AM/PM PT

092 FXUS66 KSEW 100329 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 829 PM PDT Sun May 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge will move into the area tonight. Dry conditions expected through much of the week, as well as warmer temperatures. The next time some more widespread rain is expected in Western Washington is this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Lingering light showers are drifting S/SE off the Olympics this evening and will diminish by midnight tonight. Otherwise, expect dry conditions. 33 Previous discussion...Skies continue to clear out through tonight as a ridge moves into the area. This ridge will dominate much of the weather through the week. Resulting in rising temperatures and clearer skies. Models are in agreement that highs in the low 70s is probable for locations around the Sound. It is likely that things will be a little warmer down towards Chehalis and cooler towards Bellingham. The warmest day will likely be Wednesday, although we do not expect too much of a change come Thursday. With some slight but persistent onshore flow we could see a nightly dose of marine clouds making their way into the Interior. But with the daytime heating these clouds should mostly scatter out through the day. It will likely be a different story at the coast though. Marine stratus will likely stick around for much of the daytime hours, but a few sunbreaks are certainly possible. We are expecting a low to move by just to the north of us later Wednesday. This will bring some additional clouds and maybe a light sprinkle of rain on northern portions of Western Washington. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...While the ridge will remain over us for much of the long term period the strength of it remains a little debatable. Towards Friday models are suggesting that the ridge axis will beginning to flatten out, giving way to more persistent onshore flow throughout Western Washington. This will give way to slightly cooler temperatures (the upper 60s) and some increase cloudiness. By the weekend a trough will move through the area which may give way to some rain showers. Deterministic models are still a little unsure of the magnitude of this trough as it passes through the area. That said things have been trending drier over the last few forecast cycles. Butwin && .AVIATION...Northwesterly flow aloft tonight with isolated showers drifting S/SE off the Olympics. Showers will diminish by 06-07z. Will see pockets of MVFR cigs overnight, mainly coast and SW Interior with lingering low level moisture in place. As high pressure begins to impact the area Monday, cloud bases should lift with widespread VFR conditions expected by afternoon. 33 KSEA...VFR conditions in place. Clouds scatter out briefly this evening and early tonight before low level clouds return overnight and early Monday morning...although VFR conditions are expected to persist. West/northwest winds 4-7 kt this afternoon, becoming more northerly by 06z. 18 && .MARINE...High pressure over the northeastern Pacific will steadily strengthen through the middle part of the week. As the ridge axis moves closer to the coastal waters, expect northwesterly winds over the coastal waters and west winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca with diurnal enhancement each afternoon and evening. Winds to 15-25 kt still expected to develop this evening over the coastal waters and through the central and eastern portions of the Strait and inherited small craft advisories look on track. Seas over the coastal waters, especially beyond 30 nm from shore, may build to around 7-8 feet during the same time. With high pressure in place and little in the way of significant weather systems to impact the coastal waters, expect seas to remain 4 to 6 feet with a shorter-period northwest swell. The next frontal system may approach the waters late in the week around Thursday as the ridge begins to break down. Cullen/18 && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed until then. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$



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