|
April 2015
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for April 2015 ranged from 1.50” in northwest AR and northeast OK to near 8” in southeast and east central OK. The majority of the NWS Tulsa area received 2”-5” of rain this month. Locations northeast of a Pawnee to Tahlequah to Fort Smith line received below normal rainfall this April, ranging from 25% to 90% of normal. South of this line, most locations had above normal rainfall with 110% to 200% of the normal April rainfall.
|
- Moderate flooding occurred along the Poteau River near Panama, with minor flooding near Poteau mid-month.
|
- April 2015 brought plenty of April showers to east central and southeast Oklahoma, with below normal rainfall across much of northeast OK and northwest AR.
|
- Thunderstorms developed during the evening of the 2nd along a stationary front that extended from north central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This activity affected locations in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas during the evening and late night hours. Supercells quickly developed due to plenty of instability and shear present in the atmosphere. One tornado formed during this event, damaging locations near Afton, OK. These storms also brought hail to the size of golf balls. A second round of severe thunderstorms moved out of southeast Kansas and across far northeast Oklahoma a few hours later. Rainfall totals were 0.25” to around 1.5”.
|
- Significant rain fell across southeast OK and west central AR on the 13th. Showers and thunderstorms developed along a front as it moved into northeast OK around midnight on the 13th. The front moved southeast, and slowed just south of I-40 during the late morning and early afternoon hours. In addition to the storms along the front, scattered showers developed ahead of the front as well. Widespread, slow steady rain affected much of eastern OK and northwest AR through the day. While most of the rain rates were around 0.25”/hour, near the front, rain rates of 0.50”-1”/hour occurred. The heaviest rain fell along and south of I-40, where the front moved slowest. This area received a longer period of heavier rain, combined with several hours of slow, steady rain. Rainfall totals of 2.5”-4” was common, especially over Pittsburg, McIntosh, Le Flore, and Sebastian Counties. This resulted in flash flooding, with many streets impassible due to high water. The widespread heavy rain also caused flooding along the Poteau River. The Poteau River near Poteau crested right at flood stage early on the 14th. The Poteau River near Panama reached moderate flood levels during the late evening of the 14th. Most of the remainder of eastern OK and northwest AR received at least 0.75” of rain from this event, with a tenth to near 0.75” across far northeast OK and along the AR/MO state line
|
- According to the Drought Monitor from April 28, 2015, Extreme Drought (D3) conditions remained over eastern Kay, western Osage and northern Pawnee Counties in eastern OK. Severe Drought (D2) conditions were occurring across portions of Osage, Pawnee, and western Washington Counties in eastern OK. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were present across portions of Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa, Creek, Washington, Nowata, and Rogers Counties in eastern OK. Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought, conditions existed across parts of Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Creek, Wagoner, Cherokee, and Adair Counties in northeast OK. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions were also present in Benton, Washington, and Madison Counties in northwest AR.
|
- According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, April 2015 was the 45th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 32nd wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 29th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921. For the year-to-date period January 1-April 30, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 22nd driest, east central Oklahoma was the 40th wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 29th wettest period. For the Water Year-to-date, October 1, 2014-April 30, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 44th driest, east central Oklahoma was the 36th wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 46th driest period.
|
| Outlook |
- The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for May 2015 (issued April 30, 2015) indicates an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook also calls for a slightly enhanced chance for above median rainfall across eastern OK, with an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across western AR. This outlook is based on short- and extended-range computer models that indicate a wet start to the month across the Plains, followed by an active southern jet stream and generally wet pattern for much of the U.S. This generally reflects the on-going El Niño conditions.
|
- The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period May-June-July 2015, CPC is forecasting an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures and precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued April 16, 2015). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and considering El Niño conditions.
|
- According to CPC, current atmospheric and oceanic observations show El Niño conditions, and these conditions are favored to continue through at least the autumn months. The atmospheric response to the equatorial sea surface temperatures became more robust in March and April, and this, combined with on-going oceanic conditions, indicate El Niño conditions are likely strengthening. However, El Niño impacts are generally most significant during the cold seasons.
|
|
Follow us on X
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
TSA RSS Feed
