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Heavy Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm Threats; Record High Temperatures into the Weekend

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for isolated flash flooding and severe weather continue from the Intermountain West through the Plains into the weekend. This threat also extends into Florida as we are monitoring a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, new record high temperatures are forecast for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast into the weekend. Read More >

Southwest Aviation Weather Safety Workshop 10


About the Southwest Aviation Weather Safety Workshop
April 21-22, 2023

All Risk Training Center / Rancho Cucamonga Fire Protection District

11285 Jersey Blvd, Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91730

Follow the event as it unfolds on Twitter at #SAWS10




Decision Support, Collaboration, and Innovation

Please join the National Weather Service as we bring together the Southwest US aviation and weather forecasting communities to promote aviation safety and productivity through improved weather awareness and forecasting services. This event will be free of charge and will consist of:

  • Aviation Weather Forecasting Workshop (Friday, April 21, 2023) - The first day of the workshop will focus on meeting the needs of Aviation Weather Forecasters. It will feature best practices in aviation weather forecasting, infusing new technology into the forecast process, customer needs, and discussions on weather service innovation. Pilots are welcome on this day to the extent they would like to participate, and we will appreciate their insights in discussions. We also anticipate FAA Safety Team participation.

  • Social Dinner (Friday evening) - Everyone with an interest in southwest US aviation and aviation weather services is welcome to join us for a casual evening of networking and relationship building. Dinner place will be announced soon.

  • Aviator and Controller Weather Workshop (Saturday, April 22, 2023) - The second day of the workshop will focus on meeting aviator and air traffic controller needs for weather safety information, including presentations on aviation weather hazard recognition, mitigation, and avoidance; as well as tips on how to effectively use and understand aviation weather data, products, and websites. 

Hotel accommodations are available at Hilton Garden Inn Ontario/Rancho CucamongaRancho Cucamonga Holiday Inn Express ,and Courtyard Ontario Rancho Cucamonga   Local Meals and Incidentals Rate is $71 per day.  The hotels listed are within walking distance of numerous dining and shopping options, though they are about 1 1/2 miles from the site of the workshop.    

The SAWS 10 Workshop is brought to you by the Los Angeles Air Route Traffic Control Center Weather Service Unit, as well as the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in San Diego.  Please monitor our website ( for updates, and feel free to email us at if you have questions. 

For additional information please contact the workshop organizers at

Aviation Weather Forecasting Workshop Agenda
Friday, April 21, 2023

Follow the event as it unfolds on Twitter at #SAWS10



8:00 - 9:45 AM -- First Morning Session

8:00-8:15 AM:



8:15-8:45 AM 

Updates to the NWS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Philosophy (Presentation)

Mike Graf, NWSHQ (Forecast Services Division) (remote)


8:45-9:15 AM 

The National Blend of Models v4.1 for Aviation Forecasting (Presentation)

Adam Schnapp, MDL (NBM Aviation Lead)


9:15-9:45 AM 

Updates on Improvements to Aviation Guidance in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) (Presentation)

Phil Shafer, MDL (LAMP Team Lead) and Judy Ghirardelli, MDL


9:45 - 10:00 AM -- Morning Break

10:00-10:30 AM 

Southwest Airlines Meteorology Use of National Weather Service Products and Services (Presentation)

Jared Beard, Southwest Airlines (Meteorologist)


10:30-11:00 AM 

International Perlan Project (Presentation)

Elizabeth Austin, Weather Extreme (remote)


11:00-11:30 AM 

The NTSB Investigation Process for Weather and How the NWS May Be Involved (Presentation)

Scott Birch, NWS WRH and Paul Suffern, NTSB


11:30 AM-12 PM 

Cloud Base and Flight Category Climatology of WFO Tucson TAF Sites (Presentation)

Aaron Hardin, NWS WFO Tucson

12:00 PM - 1:15 PM -- Lunch Break and Poster Review

1:15-1:45 PM 

NWS Aviation Decision Support Service During Super Bowl LVII & Waste Management Phoenix Open (Presentation)

Sean Benedict, NWS WFO Phoenix


1:45-2:15 PM 

Weather Related Accidents Across the Western United States and NTSB Accident Dashboard (Presentation)

Paul Suffern, NTSB


2:15-2:45 PM

Explicit Resolution of Mountain Wave Turbulence Using the Standard Deviation of the HRRR Vertical Velocity Field (Presentation)

Ryan Connelly, NWS AWC

2:45 - 3:00 PM -- Afternoon Break

3:00-3:30 PM 

Convective Impacts to Aviation over Western Arizona during August 2022 (Presentation)

Sharon Sullivan and Roger Smith, NWS CWSU Albuquerque


3:30-4:00 PM

Forecasting for FAI Record Flights Flight Test and Gliding Events (Presentation)

Walt Rogers, NWS CWSU Palmdale Retired, Consultant


4:00-4:30 PM 

Discussion and Closing Remarks

5:00-9:00 PM -- Dinner to be determined



The Interaction of Cold Fronts and Mountains on Surface Wind Speeds at Two El Paso, TX Area Airports
Kerwyn Texeira, WFO El Paso



Aviation Weather Center National Aviation Meteorologists Support to the FAA Command Center

Kyle Struckmann, Roland Nunez, Joe Carr, Brian Waranauskas, Wes Adkins
National Aviation Meteorologists at FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), Warrenton, VA



Aviator and Controller Weather Workshop Agenda
Saturday, April 22, 2023

Follow the event as it unfolds on Twitter at #SAWS10



8:00 - 10:00 AM -- First Morning Session

8:00-8:15 AM 



8:15-8:45 AM 

General Aviation & Weather: How to Co-Exist (Presentation)

Jeffery Arnold, Leidos

8:45-9:15 AM 

Aviation Weather Center Operations and  (Presentation)

Ryan Connelly, NWS AWC, Jennifer Stroozas, NWS AWC, and CMD John Rossi, WP-3D Hurricane AC/King Air Instructor Pilot


9:15-10:00 AM 

Pilot Self-Briefing (Presentation)

Terry Lankford, FAA Retired, GA Pilot/Flight Instructor (remote)

10:00-10:15 AM-- Morning Break

10:15-11:15 AM 

Application of Weather Forecast Tools to Planning a Winter Cross Country Flight  (Presentation)

Rhon Williams, Flight Instructor, FAAST Representative, Torrance, CA


11:15-11:45 AM 

Aviation Weather Probabilistic and Confidence Messaging (Presentation)

Jane Fogleman, NWS WFO Great Falls

11:45 AM-1:00 PM--Lunch Break

1:00PM-1:30 PM

Turbulence: Different Ways We Get Jostled (Presentation)

Harrison Sincavage and Joe Jurecka, NWS WFO Lubbock


1:30-2:00 PM

Avoiding Wildfire Smoke During Aviation Operations (Presentation)

David Craft, NWS WFO Albuquerque


2:00-2:30 PM 

Density Altitude: Airframe and Powerplant (Presentation)

Joe Jurecka and Harrison Sincavage, NWS WFO Lubbock

2:30-2:45 PM--Afternoon Break

2:45-3:15 PM 

Open Forum - Discussion on How to Improve Aviation Weather Services


3:15-3:45 PM 

Updates to the NWS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Philosophy (Presentation)

Mike Graf, NWSHQ (Forecast Services Division) (remote)


3:45-4:15 PM 

Recent NTSB Weather Related Accidents Across the Western United States and Lessons Learned (Presentation)

Paul Suffern, NTSB


4:15-4:45 PM 

Into the Abyss - LIFR (Presentation)

Fred Gibbs, Safety Program Director-at-Large, Arizona Pilot’s Association


4:45-5:00 PM 

Closing Remarks


SAWS 10 Committee Members

SAWS 10 Photos

All Risk Training Center, Rancho Cucamonga, CA

Friday Session



Poster Presenters


Saturday Session