Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

845
FXAK68 PAFC 101255
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure remains over interior Southcentral this
morning as an upper-level trough and attendant weakening occluded
front move over Kodiak Island. The ridge will lift to the north
and east today as the upper-level trough moves over Cook Inlet. A
vigorous shortwave will round the base of the trough, spinning up
a surface low over the southern Gulf.

The retreating ridge has resulted in increased cloud cover over
Southcentral. The increased cloud cover has allowed temperatures
this morning to warm slightly from their overnight lows, with the
exception of the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.
The lower clouds and retreating ridge have also helped to erode
the widespread fog that many locations away from the coast were
dealing with yesterday. The trough has also resulted is a mix of
rain and snow across Kodiak Island overnight and a band of light
snow moving over the Southern Kenai Peninsula.

These areas of precipitation will halt their advance toward
Southcentral later this morning as the trough weakens and the more
potent shortwave and surface low move east into the eastern Gulf.
Gale-force winds wrapping around the low over the southern Gulf
will also diminish tonight as the low tracks east.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will move over Southcentral in the
wake of the exiting low as the aforementioned ridge builds back
across the region. This ridge, combined with colder air moving in
and lingering surface trough over the northern Gulf and Prince
William Sound, will allow for a return of gap winds for the
typical locations along the immediate coast. These winds will
likely peak late tonight through Tuesday afternoon before slowly
diminishing. Wind gusts map approach 40 mph for Seward and Valdez
and near 50 mph for Whittier and through Thompson Pass.

The trough in the northern Gulf may bring some snow showers to
Cordova by early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect generally clear and
cold conditions, with some high clouds and areas of fog, for much
of Southcentral by midweek.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A weakening low over Nunivak Island will continue to produce light
lingering snow showers over Southwest Alaska over the next couple
of days. No significant snow accumulations are expected. Areas of
patchy fog and low stratus are also expected near Dillingham and
Togiak tonight. A separate low in the northern Bering Sea is
bringing a swath of gusty westerly winds to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians and the southern Alaska Peninsula today that
will diminish though late this evening. Conditions in the Bering
are expected to improve as the low moves southeast and weakens. A
ridge builds behind into the Western Aleutians, so lower chances
for precipitation and lower wind speeds are expected.

Another frontal system moves into the Bering from the west late
tonight. A line of precipitation and corridor of storm force
winds will moves over the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning,
fizzling to gales by Tuesday afternoon. The front tracks east and
weakens to small craft, reaching the Pribilof Islands and the
Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning. The frontal system will
reach the mainland by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for some
snowfall. Behind the front is warm air advection and weak flow,
which means light winds and showery precipitation in the Bering.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Over the second half of next week a western Bering trough will
slide across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, eventually
crossing over into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly
winds from small craft to gales are anticipated from Adak to
Unalaska with what looks to be minimal impacts at this time. The
bigger story will entail a North Pacific low lifting into the
Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend. Deterministic
models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement with
bringing a ~940 to sub 940 mb low across the Aleutians into the
Bering Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the track and
intensity are extremely low, impacts from the forecast low`s track
would include strong winds, potentially high winds, Saturday and
Sunday over the Western and Central Aleutians.

For Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool
temperatures are forecast. The passage of one or two weaker
troughs through interior Alaska will support above normal chances
for precipitation.

BL


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus and fog are trending towards mixing out this
morning as increasing north winds and upper level clouds help to
prevent the lower atmosphere from staying cool and fully
saturated. Thus, while periods of IFR/LIFR in fog remain possible
for a few more hours this morning, expect predominantly VFR
conditions to return for most of today. Northerly winds at the
surface will stay light at around 5 kts or so through this
afternoon. There will be a chance for fog and low stratus to
redevelop late tonight into Tuesday morning as winds become calm
and as upper level clouds clear out once again.

&&


$$

509
FXAK69 PAFG 101032
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 AM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The gusty offshore winds along the YK-Delta will continue to
weaken throughout the early morning as a weak low continues to
spin NW of Nunivak Island. This will allow for additional
snowfall for the YK-Delta and Norton Sound coasts throughout the
day. A much drier pattern is ensuing over the rest of the state as
a weak shortwave moves up the Al-Can boarder. A weak deformation
band will setup across the NE Arctic Coast allowing for snowfall
between 2" and 4" through the mid-week. This set-up allows for
northeasterly flow aloft, bringing in the previously mentioned
drier conditions and colder temperatures. However, some low-lying
clouds may continue to linger with an overall troughing pattern
continuing across the majority of the state.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clearing skies will support colder temperatures and areas of
dense fog for tonight as conditions turn predominantly dry for
the week ahead.

- Highs today are expected to be in the single digits and teens,
with lows in single digits above and below zero and teens.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double digit
below zero lows.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Elevated water levels above the normal high tide line possible
across the West Coast, highest around the YK Delta.

- Snow chances will continue across the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence
Island, and Norton Sound coastal areas throughout the day and
into Tuesday morning. Snowfall totals expected to be between 1"
and 3".

- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.

- Dry conditions return Tuesday along the West Coast outside of
isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range today through Tuesday. Additional accumulations through up
to around 1-3", locally higher across the NE Arctic Coast
around 3- 5".

- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Dry conditions return region wide Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.

- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero zero further inland.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing is looking to continue across the majority of the
state over the next couple of days. Some areas will see a
slightly more active weather pattern, while other areas, mainly
over the central portion of the state, will be benign.

A few organized lows/shortwaves are embedded within the overall
troughing. The first is currently spinning, with a low around
985mb, just northwest of Nunivak Island. This low will remain
fairly stationary, maybe shifting slightly to the east throughout
today, as it continues to bring snow showers to the YK-Delta, St.
Lawrence Island, and Norton Sound coastal areas. This low will
will be slowing filling in as another shortwave will move south
tonight, just west of St. Lawrence Island, taking some of the
energy away. This will result in a weaker, more broad low across
the YK-Delta to St. Lawrence Island through Tuesday. A ridge will
begin moving from the east, which will cause it to become
elongated in a NW-SE orientation. This will set up for the next
front moving up the lower Kuskokwim by Wednesday afternoon. The
main part of this front is looking to stay just SE of the YK-Delta
and continue to move across the coast as higher pressure builds
back up over the Bering.

The second weak shortwave is progressing up the Al-Can boarder,
acting as the main mechanism for the lower cloud bases across the
Central and Eastern Interior. This low will bring some light snow
showers along the border and eastern Brooks Range. The low will
stall out around the Yukon Flats by this afternoon, as high
pressure builds in over the Arctic. At the same time, a 980mb low
will be moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska. This low looks to
fill in rather quickly once making landfall over the Panhandle
sometime tonight into Tuesday Morning. These two features will
work in tandem to stretch out the shortwave that will be moving up
the Al-Can boarder. This could result in snowfall between 2" to
4" for the far NE corner of the state through the mid-week. This
setup will also result in E-NE flow aloft, which will bring in
colder temperatures across the state. For some areas across the
Brooks Range and Eastern Interior, this will result in high
temperatures below 0 degrees by the end of the week (for the first
time this season).

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Global models look to be in relatively good agreement with broad
low setting up across the state and higher pressure over the
Bering. This will continue to allow E-NE flow across northern
portions of the state and on-going scattered snow showers. A
stronger system is looking to move over the Aleutians and into the
Southern Bering by mid-weekend. Models are not in great agreement
with the positioning, but the strength is looking to be around
945mb with the latest model runs. Models are looking to keep the
low int he southern Bering, but will swing moist, NE moving fronts
from the Kuskokwim to the Interior by the end of the weekend.
This may bring better chances for snowfall across the Interior,
with the favorable SW flow, along with a potentially light warming
trend as next week begins.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-807-816-852-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-855.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-809.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811>813-856>859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Twombly

777
FXAK67 PAJK 101835
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
935 AM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.UPDATE.../To add the 18Z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SHORT TERM...A low entering the Gulf of Alaska continues to track
to the north and east this morning. Both global deterministic as
well as hires guidance continues to show a track farther to the
east which will bring more moisture and better dynamics to the
area. With the increased moisture and improved dynamics, snowfall
amounts are expected to be higher along the Klondike highway today
through tomorrow thanks to SW flow up Lynn Canal into the Skagway
area as well as orographic lifting. For the rest of the
panhandle, the weakening front is still expected to bring
increased winds and more rain to the area. Across the southern
panhandle, rain is already being reported as well as an increase
in returns from the radar on Biorka Island. As the low moves
closer to the coast throughout the day today, onshore flow will
persist bringing the continued chances for showers throughout
today after the initial front passes over as well as tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...
As the low pressure system moves north and diminishes
through Tuesday, lingering showers will bring times of light
precipitation to the panhandle. Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions quickly develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system
moves to the south of the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow
and northerly winds across the inner channels as a high develops
over the Yukon. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales are
most likely, but the gradient could increase as we get closer.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. These temperatures are
nothing atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest
some places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The stronger the
outflow is, the more likely the chance for snow will be.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Tuesday/...A gale-force front is
approaching & moving through the panhandle through the period. It
will bring primarily rainfall at sea level breezy SFC winds, LLWS
magnitudes up to around 40 to 45 kt out of a southerly direction,
on average, centered up at around 2 kft, with magnitudes the
highest around frontal passage. CIGs & VISs generally around the
MVFR flight category are anticipated through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A weakening gale force low continues to work into
the Gulf of Alaska this morning. This low continues to track
farther to the east which will bring some gale force winds to the
offshore waters, especially around the backside of the low. But
the front is expected to be a weakening gale force front is still
expected to move into the outer coast later this morning before
moving ashore and dissipating. Right now, the best chance for gale
force winds looks to be near Cape Spencer before the front while
most of the coast could see fresh to strong breezes with some
pockets of near gales. Seas with this front are expected to
increase to around 13-16 ft from Cape Spencer down to the Dixon
Entrance midday. Seas should diminish slightly behind the front
but then are expected to increase again as the low center moves
closer to shore bringing closer to 20-25 ft seas tonight into
tomorrow from Cape Fairweather down to Cape Decision.

Inside Waters: Conditions across the Inner Channels this morning
range from gentle breezes to some areas of fresh breezes. Ahead of
the next front approaching, winds are expected to diminish
slightly before increasing to strong breezes to near gales. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the front as it passes
over. Behind the front, winds are expected to remain between fresh
to strong breezes as onshore flow persists bringing continued
showers to the area. Winds continue to diminish heading into
tomorrow as the low continues to weaken before high pressure moves
into the Gulf for the middle of the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ323.
Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
AKZ323.
Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ325-326-329-
330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-662>664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-
651-652-661-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau