Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

136
FXAK68 PAFC 141449
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery shows a front encroaching upon Kodiak Island.
Winds are expected to increase to small craft to gale force winds
to surrounding marine areas such as Shelikof Straight, southern
Cook Inlet, and much of the southwestern Gulf of Alaska.
Precipitation will mostly fall as rain at sea level, but may see
some snow on the initial onset tonight. The front will bring some
snow and elevated winds to the eastern Kenai Peninsula today, but
its parent low diving into the southern Gulf will help keep
impacts mostly coastal before dissipating by Saturday morning.

Clearing skies over the Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley regions
will likely return for Saturday as a weak transient ridge moves
over the region in between systems. This may bring one more night
of cooler temperatures before a gradual warming trend into early
next week.

A strong low pressure from the Pacific will cross the Aleutian
Chain sometime Sunday morning. Model guidance is handling this
system extremely poorly, giving little confidence on exact timing
of impacts. We do expect the front associated with it to bring
rain and elevated winds to Kodiak Island on Sunday before
progressing across the North Gulf coast by Monday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, cold temperatures and relatively dry conditions are
present over much of the Southwest mainland as weak ridging
remains in place. Meanwhile, two lows are present with the first
west of the Pribilof Islands and the second just south of the
Alaska Peninsula. The lows are bringing a large swath of gale
force winds to the Central and Eastern Aleutians. Precipitation is
also falling over the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Friday
afternoon, a band of precipitation will make it over much of
Bristol Bay. However, the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley will remain mostly dry. By Friday night into Saturday
morning, the lows will merge and move into the Gulf of Alaska.
Behind the lows is a strong ridge, which will decrease wind speeds
and precipitation chances in the Eastern Aleutians and the
Southwest mainland.

Behind this ridge is a strong low near Attu Island. The low`s
front brings a line of precipitation and small craft to gale force
winds to the Western Aleutians. This front will eventually make
it to the Central Aleutians by Saturday afternoon. More trouble
arises as a strong, compact North Pacific low swings up into the
Bering early Sunday. This low will join up with the aforementioned
front and will bring an area of storm force winds and moderate to
heavy precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
by late Sunday morning. This low will then track northward due to
a blocking ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the warm air
advection associated with this low, snowfall will eventually
transition to a bout of freezing rain mixed with snow over the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and the Bristol Bay coast early Sunday as
the front moves onshore. With recent snowfall, freezing rain that
falls may create difficult travel conditions. Another potential
concern with this low is the potential for coastal flooding.
However, due to a lower tide cycle and limited fetch, storm surge
is expected to be minimal, but some minor flooding is still
possible. Due to these potential threats, a Special Weather
Statement has been issued detailing the impacts. There is still
some uncertainty with the track and strength of this low, so
depending on what scenario plays out, more or less impacts will be
seen.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Southcentral will be under an upper level ridge before a strong
North Pacific system moves in from the southwest and displaces the
ridge into Canada. A broad upper level low becomes established
over the central Bering. Surface lows are embedded along the
front and rotating around the pivotal feature in the Bering,
merge by Monday afternoon. Gales to storm-force winds and heavy
precipitation are expected across the southern Bering Sea,
including the Aleutian Island Chain and Pribilofs before before
weakening Monday afternoon. This will be quickly followed by the
front of a second North Pacific system, which moves into the
southern Bering by Tuesday morning. The parent low moves from over
Kamchatka into the western Bering by Thursday morning. The exact
path of the system remains uncertain due to poor agreement
between the major global models. A 970 mb surface low embedded
along its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning,
bringing more gale to storm-force wind and heavy rain across the
Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest part of the state.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy fog currently prevails around Anchorage with some
occasional visibility reductions and low/IFR ceilings. This is
expected to clear up later this morning. VFR conditions and light
winds will then persist.

&&


$$

177
FXAK69 PAFG 150000
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 PM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue across Northern Alaska
heading into the weekend, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog,
and flurries as mostly clear skies prevail overall. Winds will
remain elevated across the Northwest Arctic Coast out towards
Point Hope through the weekend, where wind gusts up to 45 mph will
continue. A more active weather pattern is expected to return to
the Bering Sea starting this weekend into next week, as a series
of low pressure systems and fronts move into Western Alaska. These
systems will support the return of widespread snow chances, gusty
winds, and warmer temperatures along the West Coast Saturday
night into Sunday, as snow chances and warmer temperatures build
in across the Interior Sunday into Monday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior
through the weekend, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and
flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations mostly
out across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double digits
below zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to 30
below.

- Temperatures trend warmer Monday into Tuesday as isolated to
scattered snow chances return.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
Isabel Pass Sunday night into Monday, with gusts up to 40-50 mph
possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
through much of Saturday, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog,
and flurries.

- A more active weather pattern ramps up Saturday night into
Sunday and continues through much of next week as a series of
storms in the Bering Sea lift north along the West Coast,
supporting gusty winds and increasingly widespread snow chances
into early next week.

- Strongest winds Sunday and Monday will remain offshore and at
St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 50-60 mph are possible.
Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around
20-40 mph.

- Secondary system moving in Wednesday will help to reinforce
widespread snow chances and breezy winds through midweek.

- Temperatures trend colder overall through Saturday, ahead of
beginning a warming trend starting Sunday into Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero
along the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below
zero, with coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
isolated to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across
Northern Alaska with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and
flurries. Cold and dry conditions will continue across Northern
Alaska through the start of the weekend as a weak area of low
pressure over the Seward Peninsula and high pressure over the
Arctic pushes south through the Chukchi Sea. This setup will
continue to support gusty winds across the NW Arctic Coast,
strongest around Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts
up to 45 mph are expected through the weekend. Another weak low
tracking SW from the NE Arctic Coast Saturday into Sunday will
help reinforce broad NE flow over our region, helping to keep a
cold airmass in place across the Interior and North Slope in
addition to supporting isolated snow showers along the Arctic
Coast.

Looking farther south and west, a broad areas of low pressure
around 965 mb will move into the Southern Bering Sea tonight into
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the NE Pacific
into the Gulf of Alaska. This will setup the necessary steering
flow for a strengthening low pressure system to work in between
these features Saturday night into Sunday, as a 960 mb low lift
north through the Eastern Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea.
Confidence has increased on the track and strength of this low, as
these systems in the Bering incorporate into one and move up
along the West Coast heading into early next week. As this system
progresses north, winds will ramp up across the West Coast
Saturday night into Sunday, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence
Island where wind gusts up to 50-60 mph are expected. Winds
elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around 20-40
mph. Widespread snow showers will build into Southwest Alaska and
shift northeast Sunday into Sunday night, with a slight chance for
a light wintry mix across the Southern Yukon Delta.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass will
remain in place through the weekend, with coldest areas seeing
lows drop to around 20 to 30 below zero with highs in the double
digits below zero. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and
Southcentral late Sunday into Monday will help to create a
moderate gradient across the Interior Sunday and Monday. This
setup will remain favorable for sub-advisory gap winds through
Windy Pass and Isabel Pass with gusts up to 50 mph late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Friday.
A more active weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend
into next week, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts in
the Bering Sea and Northern Pacific track southwest to northeast
into Northern Alaska. The first system around 970 mb will track
north through the Eastern Bering Sea, followed by a secondary low
building in through the Central Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday.
Broad southerly flow in this pattern along with widespread cloud
cover and snow chances will lead to warmer temperatures overall
for next week. Snow totals at this time remain uncertain this far
out, but we will continue to monitor the potential for more
moderate to heavy snow and or mixed precipitation next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-806-810>813-856>858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-810-816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
&&

$$

MacKay

204
FXAK67 PAJK 141826
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
926 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Continued rain, rain/snow mix, and snow showers are dotting the
panhandle this morning.

- These showers will diminish ahead of the next frontal passage
that will bring another round of rain and snow and wind later
today into tomorrow.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Friday and Friday night/...Showers are dotting the
landscape of SE AK this morning. Rain, rain/snow mix, and snow
are all being reported. The snow and rain/snow mix is mainly along
and north of the Icy Strait corridor. South of that area is rain.

Going forward, these showers will continue with the snow
retreating farther to the north. So as the day goes on, the Icy
Strait corridor area should see less and less now and more rain.

At the same time, these showers will diminish today so expect
drying weather today. But it won`t last long as the next front,
that will bring the next round of precip, approaches from the
south later today and will last into tomorrow. So whatever breaks
in the precip you get today, enjoy it as much as you can as more
rain and/or rain/snow mix is likely.

Moisture amounts won`t be much for this time of year and snow
accumulation will remain minimal.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.

The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.

Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Saturday/...Much of the northern panhandle
is currently seeing VFR conditions with calm winds preceding the
incoming front set to reach the panhandle later in the day Friday.
Scattered showers are developing along the coast and pushing
onshore, mainly impacting the southern panhandle with MVFR CIGs
AoB 3000 ft and gusty winds up to 20 kt at the moment. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the day ahead of the
front, though Yakutat, Skagway, and Haines will drop later
overnight as the front makes its way up the panhandle. Light rain,
4 to 6 SM of VIS, and some gusty winds for the south will
accompany this front, with CIGs staying around 1500 ft at the
peak. Some locations may see VIS drop down to IFR conditions as
the front passes, and more northern locations are expected to see
a rain/snow mix overnight. Southeasterly LLWS around 30 to 35 kts
in Ketchikan and Klawock is anticipated as the front approaches
from the southwest, though it is not expected to stick around for
the entire period.

&&

.MARINE...
Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are centered
around the next low pressure that will move through the Gulf today
and tomorrow. The low will move through the western Gulf today
into tonight. The associated front will swing south- to-north
later today into tonight, reaching the northern panhandle Saturday
morning. By Saturday afternoon, the low will reach the eastern
Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.

Outside waters: Most of today, the gulf waters will be on the
quieter side, with winds around 5 to 15 knots. As the previously
mentioned front moves north into the area tonight, southeasterly
winds will swing to the southwest and will be around 20 to to 30
knots. As the low center travels through Saturday, the winds on
the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 20 knots. Some
higher wind speeds up to 25 kts are possible.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: The inner channel forecast will be a challenge.
As the front travels through the area late tonight into tomorrow,
we would expect southerly winds to increase. But with the source
low so far away, winds may only pick up to around 15 to 20 knots.
Stronger winds, up to 20 to 30 kts, likely for Clarence Strait.
Winds up to 25 knots possible for Stephens Passage.

As far as today is concerned, southerly winds for channels south
of Icy Strait, eastern winds near Icy Strait, and northerly winds
likely for areas north of Icy Strait. Strongest winds will be in
Clarence Strait at upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Much lighter
elsewhere at around 10 to 15 kts. &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GJS

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