Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

504
FXAK68 PAFC 140228
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday Morning)...

A front from the Bering Sea will push over Kodiak Island tonight,
bringing small craft to gale force winds to surrounding marine
areas such as Shelikof Straight, southern Cook Inlet, and much of
the southwestern Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation will mostly fall as
rain at sea level, but may see some snow on the initial onset
tonight. The front will bring some snow and elevated winds to the
eastern Kenai Peninsula on Friday, but its parent low diving into
the southern Gulf will help keep impacts mostly coastal before
dissipating by Saturday morning.

Clearing skies over the Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley regions
will likely return for Saturday as a weak transient ridge moves
over the region in between systems. This may bring one more night
of cooler temperatures before a gradual warming trend into early
next week.

A strong low pressure from the Pacific will cross the Aleutian
Chain sometime Sunday morning. Model guidance is handling this
system extremely poorly, giving little confidence on exact timing
of impacts. We do expect the front associated with it to bring
rain and elevated winds to Kodiak Island on Sunday before
progressing across the North Gulf coast by Monday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Clear skies and cold temperatures persist across interior
Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Similar to last night, expect
temperatures to drop back into the single digits to near zero
degrees tonight for the northern Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley as mainly clear skies continue overnight under
the influence of an upper level ridge.

Farther west in the Bering, the first of two ~990 mb lows has
moved to about 150 miles to the southwest of the Pribilof Islands
while the other low lifts out of the North Pacific towards the
Alaska Peninsula tonight. Upper level dynamics show the lows
aligning with a digging trough moving across the southern Bering,
allowing both lows to deepen to around 980 mb as they consolidate
into a large, complex surface low by Friday morning. Deterministic
models continue to struggle to come into perfect agreement on the
exact placement of each low center, though agreement on the
overall strength and wind field has improved. Confidence has
become high that the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, and
southern AKPen will see widespread gales beginning this evening
and persisting into Friday afternoon. Storm force gusts will be
possible for the Eastern Aleutians Friday morning into early
Friday afternoon as the system begins to pivot eastwards into the
Gulf. Widespread rainfall overspreads the Pribilof Islands and
AKPen this evening, while light snow totaling 1-2" will be
possible along the Bristol Bay coast Friday as the front nudges
towards the Mainland. Strengthening offshore winds Friday morning
along the coast may lead to periods of blowing snow and decreased
visibilities.

The pattern in the Bering remains active heading into the
weekend, with a gale force front entering the western Bering
Friday into Saturday with its parent low tracking and stalling to
the north of Shemya. As this front tracks across the Bering and
reaches the Pribilof Islands, a potent upper level shortwave
supports a stronger, more compact low quickly lifting out of the
North Pacific for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models have
come into better agreement on the low potentially strengthening to
storm force as it tracks across the Eastern Aleutians, but
confidence continues to lack in the timing of the system. The
ECMWF and Canadian continue to be the fastest solutions bringing
the low to the Aleutian Chain as early as Saturday night into
early Sunday morning, while the NAM and GFS slower at mid to late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Regardless of timing,
elevated south to southeasterly winds are expected across the
Eastern Aleutians, AKPen, Pribilof Islands, and coastal Southwest
Alaska as the storm progresses north in the Bering. Please stay
tuned to the forecast as details continue to become clearer in the
next couple of days.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Southcentral will be under an upper level ridge before a strong
North Pacific system moves in from the southwest and displaces the
ridge into Canada. A broad upper level low becomes established
over the central Bering. Surface lows are embedded along the
front and rotating around the pivotal feature in the Bering,
merge by Monday afternoon. Gales to storm-force winds and heavy
precipitation are expected across the southern Bering Sea,
including the Aleutian Island Chain and Pribilofs before before
weakening Monday afternoon. This will be quickly followed by the
front of a second North Pacific system, which moves into the
southern Bering by Tuesday morning. The parent low moves from over
Kamchatka into the western Bering by Thursday morning. The exact
path of the system remains uncertain due to poor agreement
between the major global models. A 970 mb surface low embedded
along its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning,
bringing more gale to storm-force wind and heavy rain across the
Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest part of the state.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Very light
snow showers around the Anchorage bowl will continue to diminish
this morning. Pockets of fog or low stratus are possible again
tonight, but coverage and confidence is too low for TAF inclusion
at this point.

&&


$$

600
FXAK69 PAFG 140030
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern
Alaska heading into the weekend, with localized areas of fog, low
stratus, and flurries. Isolated snow showers will linger for the
West Coast, Southwest Alaska, and Arctic Coast through Friday as a
low moving west through the Brooks Range merges with a shortwave
today. This setup will support broad northeasterly flow across the
Arctic Plains into the Interior, allowing for temperatures to see
an overall cooling trend heading into the weekend. Coldest areas
will struggle to see highs get above zero with lows in the double
digits below zero, bottoming out around 15 to 30 below zero. Given
a tightening pressure gradient along the Northwest Arctic Coast
today into Friday, strong winds are expected out towards Cape
Lisburne and Point Hope where wind gusts up to 50 mph are
expected. Looking ahead, increasing confidence supports a more
active pattern as a series of storms building into the Bering Sea
work to bring increased winds, warmer temperatures, and
precipitation chances starting this weekend into early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
finish out the week, with localized areas of fog and flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero through the weekend.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
scattered snow chances return. Southerly winds are expected to
ramp up through Alaska Range passes Sunday into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
through Saturday morning, with localized areas of fog and
flurries.

- Highs in the single and digits and teens to teens and 20s along
the southern coast, with lows in the single digits above and
below zero inland to single digits and teens along the coast.
Coldest spots reaching the double digits below zero inland.

- Temperatures trend colder overall through the weekend, ahead of
southerly flow returning Sunday into Monday as a series of
storms in the Bering Sea shift north.

- The first system is expected to lift north Saturday into Sunday
with gusty winds and snow chances across the West Coast.
Strongest winds are expected across the Yukon Delta and St.
Lawrence Island with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
scattered snow chances return.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope,
particularly around the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 50
mph are expected.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero in the Brooks
Range to single digits and teens along the coast, with lows in
the single digits above and below zero to double digits below
zero across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
isolated to scattered snow chances return across to much of the
North Slope and Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds
over Northern Alaska as a cold and dry pattern continues overall.
A low over the Western Brooks Range will continue to move W/SW
towards the Seward Peninsula heading into Friday, as an arctic
high works slightly south towards the Northwest Arctic Coast.
Given this setup, northeast flow will prevail region wide,
allowing for temperatures to see a broad cooling trend heading
into the weekend. With the pressure gradient along the West/Arctic
Coast increasing today into Friday, breezy northeast winds will
persist in these corridors. Strongest winds are expected to be
around the Lisburne Peninsula where wind gusts up to 50 mph will
remain possible through the weekend. Across the Interior, cold and
dry conditions will continue to prevail with localized areas of
low stratus and fog leading to flurries at times. As a colder
airmass settles in across Northern Alaska heading into the start
of the weekend, more widespread subzero temperatures are expected
with coldest areas struggling to see highs above zero as lows drop
to the double digits below zero.

Further south, a series of lows will move east through the
Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska Friday into Saturday as a more
broad low settles into the Central/Western Bering Sea. As a ridge
of high pressure amplifies on the back side of these lows in the
Gulf, this will allow for a stronger low to lift northeast through
the Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea late Saturday into
Sunday. This will work to create a stronger pressure gradient
along the West Coast, leading to an increase in winds broadly with
strongest winds expected in the Yukon Delta and out on St.
Lawrence Island where gusts up to 50 mph remain possible.
Elsewhere along the West Coast, wind gusts will peak around 20-40
mph. As precipitation builds in with the accompanying stronger
winds, areas of blowing snow may lead to reduced visibility at
times.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
A more active weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend
into early next week, as a series of storm systems in the Bering
Sea and Northern Pacific track southwest to northeast into Alaska.
The first low will build into the Western Bering Sea late
Saturday into Sunday as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over
the Gulf of Alaska. The position of this low and a ridge further
east will support the potential for another low to work its way
in between these two features, favoring a track up through the
Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea Sunday into Monday. This
will support increased winds along the West Coast in addition to
through Alaska Range Passes Sunday into Monday with gusts up to 50
mph possible. That system will turn west and retrograde into the
larger low in the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday, with a
secondary stronger low building in through the Aleutians midweek.
This pattern overall will support increasing snow chances across
much of Northern Alaska as temperatures see a warming trend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804-811>813-857>859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-803-805-806-810-852-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

MacKay

573
FXAK67 PAJK 140559 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
859 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow and mixed snow/rain showers training along the northeast
gulf coast or just off shore. Keeping a close watch on the
Yakutat area. If they train over the top of Yakutat proper a few
overnight ( 2 to 4 possibly ) could fall.

- Occluded front from the Bering Sea parent low to move into the
panhandle area late Friday to Saturday. This will spread the
next band of organized precipitation into region Saturday.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
Alaska.

SHORT TERM... / Through Friday night / Weakening surface low over
the northeast gulf, is spreading showers into the panhandle and
along the coastline of the northeast gulf coast. Temperatures in
the right range to increase the forecast challenge, as a result
lots of areas of the northern panhandle has rain and snow in the
forecast. Do expect a slow warming trend into Saturday before the
band lifts into the panhandle late Friday night and Saturday. Over
the Northeast gulf coast the showers are tracking along or just
onshore, and based on Satellite imagery. Put 1 inch or so in the
Yakutat area, but if the showers train of the over the area expect
accumulation numbers to bet two to three times as much. Remainder
of the panhandle has rain and possibly snow showers into Friday,
before the next trough lifts in by Saturday.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.

The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.

Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.

AVIATION.../through 06z Saturday/ Showers are the main weather
feature this evening for aviation concerns. Most of the precip has
been in the northern 2/3rds of the panhandle and has been seen as
a rain/snow mix in many areas. Even with the precip in the form of
snow in the north, vis and ceilings are still VFR or MVFR with
the lowest ceilings at Gustavus with 1400 ft. There will be some
shifting of where areas of precip occur over the next 24 hours
with the southern panhandle becoming more favored for
precipitation by Friday morning. That will also bring in some
lower conditions with ceilings down to 1500 ft at times for the
south. As for wind, not much of it this evening either at sea
level or aloft. However, the southern panhandle will be getting
somewhat breezy starting late tonight into tomorrow with winds
aloft increasing to 30 to 35 kt at 2000 ft. This may lead to some
low level speed shear for southern airports into Friday evening. A
more organized frontal band starts moving across the panhandle
Friday night into Saturday that may bring some lower conditions
and some winds to the area.

MARINE...
Outside waters: Hazards limited to Combined Seas at 8 feet or
more. They are subsiding off of Prince of Wales Island to about 6
feet but by Friday afternoon 8 to 10 ft spreading eastward across
the gulf to the southeaster gulf again, and then the full eastern
half of the gulf by Saturday. Sustained winds anticipated to be
under 20 kt.

Inner Channels:
Lighter winds speeds of 10 to 15 kt across the inner waters
generally. Visibility in patchy fog and rain possible but overall
limited hazards for mariners.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-036-641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Bezenek

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