Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

659
FXAK68 PAFC 071258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
through Sunday)...

The first major winter storm for much of Prince William Sound,
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Matanuska Valley will slowly
wind down this morning as the surface low that sat nearly
stationary over Montague Island over the past several hours
weakens and moves north as its attendant vigorous upper-level
shortwave moves with it over interior Alaska.

This storm was quite challenging to forecast, and the resultant
storm track made all the difference with respect to wind,
precipitation type, and snow amounts. Last night this low looked
to track south of Seward with an warmer easterly push of wind
across Prince William Sound toward the eastern Kenai Peninsula
out ahead of a strong frontal boundary. Instead, this storm took
a more northerly track then stalled near Chenega. This kept the
easterly winds at bay and allowed for offshore gap winds to
persist, with colder air remaining in place along the coast. The
more northerly track and stalled low also allowed precipitation to
fall as all snow, with the heaviest band of snow remaining over
northern and eastern Kenai Peninsula and through Turnagain Arm to
Girdwood and Anchorage. While final snow totals have yet to be
tallied, reports and observations show upwards of 10-20" of snow
for Girdwood and Turnagain Arm, 8-14" from Hope to north of
Seward, 12-24"+ for Whittier and Portage, 5-10" for the Anchorage
Bowl, and several inches for the Kenai/Soldotna area. Winds in
Seward and Whittier also allowed for blowing snow, with Whittier
likely in blizzard conditions for several hours late last night
into early Friday morning.

As the low and its upper-level wave lift north, the snow will
finally taper off. Another 1-3" of accumulation is possible for
both the Kenai/Soldotna and Portage/Whittier areas with up to an
inch possible for areas around Anchorage.

A weaker wave will move over western Prince William Sound and the
Kenai Peninsula later today and into the Susitna Valley by this
evening. As it does, a band of light snow will likely move over
the coastal mountains, across the Cook Inlet area, and continue
north toward Talkeetna. Any snow from this band is expected to be
light with up to an inch of additional snow accumulation.

Tonight, a stronger wave lifts north into the Copper River Basin
with snow moving from the the southern half of the basin to the
Alaska Range by Saturday morning. Again, snow amounts should be on
the lighter side, with a general 1-4" of snow likely.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the upper-level low east of Kodiak
begins to drift south, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to
build in across the interior. This will allow for clearer
conditions and seasonal temperatures. Northerly gap winds will
redevelop along the immediate coast as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge over the interior and a trough setting
up over the northern Gulf.

Resuspended ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption can still
be viewed via satellite moving over Shelikof Strait towards
Kodiak Island. This will continue through tonight as winds remain
strong due to cold air advection south of the low. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for potential ash resettling
over Kodiak Island. Winds may gust between 50 and 65 mph across
Shelikof Strait this morning before slowly diminishing in
intensity.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the gaps and passes
of the Alaska Peninsula through today, weakening later this
afternoon. Additionally, a weak front in the central Bering Sea
will bring brief periods very light precipitation to the Pribilof
Islands and Eastern Aleutians this morning and will diminish early
this afternoon.

Further west, a strong front moves over the Western Aleutians
today. Hurricane force winds are expected to impact areas from
Shemya to Amchitka, thus a High Wind Warning is in effect for
noon today through Saturday morning, please see product for more
information. The strong front will spread eastward, moving over
Adak with storm-force southerly winds initially, diminishing to
gale-force tonight. Along the front, also expect light-to-
moderate rainfall rates. The front will retain its strength from
there, advancing steadily eastward moving over Unalaska and the
southern Alaska Peninsula by Saturday night. Channeled gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, may see locally
higher winds.

As the front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday evening,
gusty winds small craft to gale force may push coastal waters
onshore and raise water levels 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal
highest tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Saturday
evening through noon Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be cold
enough for precipitation to remain as snow as the front
approaches. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow is expected,
with potential visibility reductions of one mile or less, though
some uncertainty remains. Stay tuned for the latest info on this
rapidly evolving system, and potential impacts for your area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term continues to remain active as several storms
continue to progress through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. By
the beginning of the long term period early next week, the strong
low in the Bering continues to weaken ahead of a ridge entering
the western Bering while a triple point low forms along its
decaying front in the North Pacific. As the ridge continues to
push east in the Bering, there is moderate confidence that the
triple point low will curve into the Gulf through early next week.
However, differences in the track across the Gulf continues to
make it difficult to ascertain how far into Southcentral
precipitation will go, with the bulk of potentially stronger winds
and precipitation likely remaining along the coast and over the
Gulf.

By late Monday into early Tuesday morning, a strong low moving
along the Kamchatka coast will begin pushing its front into the
western Bering Sea. For now, model guidance continues to be
consistent with winds along the front remaining at sustained high-
end gales to storm force through Tuesday for the western and
central Aleutians. As this front pushes into the eastern Bering
and into the Southwest Alaska coast, reasonably good model
agreement suggests a more rapid weakening of the front as the
parent low continues to spin along the Kamchatka coast through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR conditions will continue through mid-morning with
periods of snow as an area of low pressure east of Anchorage lifts
north into interior Southcentral. As it does, IFR conditions will
likely improve to MVFR ceilings as the snow tapers off. VFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible by late this morning
through early afternoon before another round of snow develops over
the coastal mountains. This band of snow is expected to move over
the terminal late this evening, likely resulting in a period of
MVFR conditions in light snow before clearing again around
midnight. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through
the day.

&&


$$

847
FXAK69 PAFG 071305
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the Gulf of Alaska will continue to lift north across
the Interior through the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast through
the weekend, supporting isolated to scattered snow chances.
Additional snow accumulations through Sunday are expected to be 1-3"
overall. Farther west, northerly flow will continue to support light
ocean effect snow showers along the West Coast today, primarily for
locations exposed to N/NW onshore flow, with snow accumulations up
to around a T-1". Increasing high pressure building into Western
Alaska later today will lead to drier conditions and clearer skies,
ahead of stronger winds and snow moving in Saturday into Saturday
night along the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island. Temperatures
will trend colder heading into early next week as conditions trend
predominantly dry outside of very isolated snow chances.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow continues through the weekend across the Interior,
with additional accumulations around 1-3" through Sunday.

- Isolated snow chances shift east to along the Alcan Border for
Monday as predominantly dry conditions return early next week.

- Cloudy skies continue to stabilize temperatures through the
start of the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in
the single digits and teens.

- Clearer skies early next week will support temperatures trending
colder, as highs drop to the single digits and teens with lows
in the single digits above and below zero. Coldest spots
reaching the double digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers and N/NW winds continue along the West Coast today
with light additional accumulations.

- Light snow continues through tonight across southeast portions
of the Western Interior with additional accumulations around
1-3".

- E/SE winds increase along the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island
Saturday into Saturday night with up to Gale Force winds
expected.

- Snow chances steadily increase for St. Lawrence Island and the
Yukon Delta late Saturday into Saturday night, shifting north
towards the Seward Peninsula for Sunday as the Northwest Coast
remains predominantly dry.

- Highs in the teens inland to 20s along the coast and lows in the
single digits inland to teens along the coast. Temperatures
trend colder starting this weekend with lows below zero
possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues through the weekend, with additional
accumulations up to around 1-3". Highest totals expected along
the Arctic Coast and Central/Eastern Brooks Range.

- Isolated snow chances shift northeast for Monday to along the
Arctic Coast and Alcan Border as predominantly dry conditions
return early next week.

- Highs in the teens and 20s across the North Slope and single
digits and teens in the Brooks Range, with lows in single digits
and teens to below zero in the Brooks Range. Temperatures trend
colder starting this weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows moisture from a low in the
Gulf of Alaska continuing to lift north across the eastern half of
the state, supporting scattered snow showers across the Interior.
Snow in the Central/Eastern Interior will progress north later
today into the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast, with a
secondary reinforcing wave of moisture over the Alaska Range
helping to keep snow chances going through Saturday. Additional
snow accumulations in this corridor through Saturday are expected
to remain light overall in that 1-3" range. As that low in the
northern Gulf weakens this weekend, a secondary 980 mb low will
lift north across the eastern Gulf and move into the Panhandle.
The bulk of moisture with this secondary system is expected to
move through Southeast Alaska into Western Canada, supporting some
isolated snow showers further east along the Alcan Border for
Sunday and Monday as conditions trend predominantly dry elsewhere.
Strengthening high pressure over the North Slope and Arctic Coast
will allow for colder air advection and an overall cooling and
drying pattern to set up over the mainland this weekend into early
next week.

Farther west, quiet and mostly dry conditions prevail across the
West Coast with light winds and isolated ocean effect snow
showers. Changes are on the way this weekend however as strong
offshore winds associated with a 940 mb low in the Central Bering
Sea shift east to the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island Saturday
into Sunday. In addition to strong winds up to gale force, a
frontal boundary lifting northeast late Saturday into Sunday will
support scattered to numerous snow chances for St. Lawrence Island
and the Yukon Delta. More isolated snow chances are expected
further north up to along the Seward Peninsula as conditions
remain predominantly dry across the Northwest Arctic Coast. E/SE
winds with this system will be strongest across the Yukon Delta
and at St. Lawrence Island, peaking around 20-40 mph with gusts to
40-60 mph over the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 2 and 3... This system in the
Bering Sea this weekend will bring elevated water levels above
the normal high tide line across the West Coast. The highest
water levels will be with the high tide each afternoon from Nunam
Iqua south including Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, and Chevak. Winds
will be primarily offshore from the southeast, but larger than
normal tide cycles due to the nearly full moon and the strength of
the storm will bring in elevated water. The strongest winds will
not coincide with the highest water levels, so significant wave
run-up or coastal flooding are not expected. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for this region to cover these impacts.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Friday.
Ensemble model guidance remains in reasonable agreement through
mid next week, keeping conditions cold and dry across Northern
Alaska with only very isolated snow showers possible. A series of
low pressure systems in the Bering Sea and Northern Pacific Ocean
mid to late week will track northeast towards Western Alaska,
which even with the track and strength of these systems still
uncertain this far out, will support increasing snow chances later
in the week. This is reflected in our latest forecast with snow
chances returning to the West Coast and Western Interior starting
Wednesday, lifting northeast for Thursday and Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-812-855-861.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814-815-858>860.
&&

$$

MacKay

016
FXAK67 PAJK 070606
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
906 PM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include the 06Z TAF issuance.

The forecast remains largely on track as precipitation has exited
the area. We are now in a slight break period before the next
front moves across the panhandle bringing another round of light
to moderate rain over the area. The main forecast change tonight
was the development of fog near the Wrangell area after skies
cleared. This fog is likely to last into early Friday morning
before overcast skies return ahead of the next front.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A gale force low and associated front in the gulf will track
north through tonight.

- Another front tomorrow will bring another round of light rain to
the area with lingering showers lasting into tomorrow night.

- Best chances for light snow Friday night is along the highways
in the far northern panhandle, but areas near the Icy Strait
corridor have a slight chance (20%) to see snow if the lower
atmosphere can cool down enough to support snow down to sea
level.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...The general 500mb pattern of
a low pressure spinning and rotating in the gulf will continue
through the short term forecast. From a big picture viewpoint,
expecting clouds with occasional rain and rain showers to persist.

850mb temperature trends will remain on the warmer side until Friday
morning. Then, cold air from the backside of the low will start to
swing into SE AK from the west. By Friday night, 850 temps will be
flirting with being cold enough to support snow to sea level, at
around -5 to -8C. The flow looks to be more onshore in the south so
still expecting mainly rain for those south of Frederick Sound. But
to the north, if surface conditions can cool enough Friday night,
some snow mixing with the rain at sea level is possible. That being
said, the latest model simulations are giving low probabilities, at
around 20% chance for snow for those near and north of Icy Strait.
Even lower probabilities to the south. So while snow is possible,
it`s more likely to see just rain through Friday night for most of
SE AK. For areas along the higher elevations of the highways in
northern Lynn Canal, snow is more likely but accumulations don`t
look like much, at around 1-2 inches or less.

At the surface, a weak front associated with the low spinning in the
northern gulf and the cooler air moving east will bring the
reinforcing push of precip and elevated winds. For the most part,
only a slight increase in wind speeds is expected, around 5 to 15
mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. The exception is Skagway where
southerly winds will be a little stronger, with gusts to 30 to 35
mph.

.LONG TERM...
The active pattern continues as a strong low moving up from the
eastern Pacific.

Models have begun to converge on a general track for this low
skirting just east of 140 degrees West before turning into the
panhandle as it weakens. With this feature being occluded at this
point. there will be decent moisture associated with it and
moderate to heavy precipitation is expected for the southern
panhandle, with 48 hr accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches as
of this forecast and more in isolated locations. Of note: these
totals may still have some room to increase across the far
southern panhandle given anticipated low level flow from the S or
SE (directions more favorable for orographic forcing in these
locations). ARIs have increased a step, and are hovering around 2
to 5 year return intervals. While no significant river flooding
is expected, stream rises are likely. Windy conditions are also
expected as this system moves through with the strongest winds
likewise in the southern half of SE AK. A High wind watch has been
issued for parts of the southern panhandle from Saturday evening

The snow forecast for this system continues to pose a challenge.
Current thinking continues to be that while the lower levels
across the panhandle will be cool and there will be a northerly
wind shift ahead of the approaching low, temperatures will not be
cold enough for any appreciable snow accumulations at sea level
this weekend. Should the boundary layer decouple though, the
potential for of minor snow accumulations could exist near sea
level for Haines and Skagway. Across the Icy Strait Corridor,
given heavier precipitation rates, the atmospheric column may be
cooled just enough to allow for some minor accumulations near sea
level from the Icy Strait Corridor northward, including Juneau
itself. Confidence is greater in the chance for far more
significant snow accumulations along the Klondike Highway and at
elevation - potentially also along the Haines Highway. This will
be a very dynamic system to analyze and watch heading into the
weekend. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR ceilings and visibilities remain across
the panhandle as precipitation has moved out of the area allowing
for a break ahead of the next system. The break between systems
has allowed for fog to develop in the Wrangell area. This fog has
greatly reduced visibilities to below 1 SM after it quickly
developed when the overcast cloud layer moved out of the area.
This fog is likely to continue into early Friday morning before an
upper level overcast cloud deck returns ahead of the next front.

As the next system enters the area Friday morning, flying
conditions will decrease to MVFR across the panhandle. The front
will lower ceilings to AoB 2500ft over most of the panhandle.
Visibilities will also decrease to around 2 to 3 SM at times with
the heaviest precipitation. Lowered flight conditions will
persist through Friday afternoon while the front moves over the
panhandle, with scattered showers following in the wake.

&&

.MARINE...The main story in the marine forecast is improving
conditions through Friday night but another low pressure system will
bring more elevated winds from the south on Saturday.

Outside: Gale force winds along the northern coast will move north
and inland tonight, leaving behind decreasing wind speeds and
subsiding wave heights. For Friday afternoon and Friday night, gulf
winds will be out of the south to southwest at around 15 to 20 kt.
Wind speeds will remain at that level until Saturday, when gale
force winds will push northward. Elevated winds centered around the
weekend`s low will last into Sunday.


Inside: For the inner channels, southerly winds will diminish
through tonight to around 5 to 15 kt on average around the area.
Friday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit, allowing
for some north/south oriented channels to see 15 to 20 kt winds
Friday afternoon into Friday night.

For the weekend, the incoming low from the south will spread
elevated winds from south to north through the inner channels. Wind
speeds will increase to upwards of 20 to 25 knots with 30 to 35 kts
in Clarence Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
AKZ328.
High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GJS

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