Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

369
FXAK68 PAFC 031442
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

- A light mix of rain and/or freezing rain is possible this morning
through early afternoon for portions of the western Kenai with
lesser chances for the Anchorage Bowl and Eagle River.

Discussion:

Snow looks to be winding down across the northern Susitna and Copper
Valleys per webcams, therefore the Winter Weather Advisories for the
Susitna Valley and norther Copper Valley have been cancelled.
However, there will likely still be pockets of light snow this
morning, so caution is still advised if traveling north along the
Parks or Richardson Highways.

Elsewhere, the weather overnight has been pretty quiet with gusty
winds along the Hillside areas having decreased. The PANC ROAB
soundings from both 00Z and 12Z show significant warm, dry air
several hundred feet above a strong surface inversion, which has
made for widely varying overnight temperatures. Areas that have seen
occasionally breezy winds have had temperatures ranging from the mid
30s to lower 40s. Those areas that have stayed calm overnight have
stayed consistently in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will come
into play later as another round of precipitation starts to work
north across the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. Early morning water
vapor imagery shows this wave near Kodiak Island where light rain is
falling. A band of precipitation is has also started to push
northward across the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula where light
rain briefly fell in Homer and Seldovia as it moved through. It is
uncertain how far north this initial band is expected to make it
before either dissipating or stalling until the next push later this
morning. If it does make it into Kenai/Soldotna, temperatures there
are currently in the upper 20s, and while temperatures might warm to
near to just above freezing, some localized light freezing rain is
likely. The next push of precipitation will come a little later this
morning as the wave lifts north towards the Barren Islands where it
will then take a slight jog to the east, moving along the eastern
Kenai Coast before moving into Prince William Sound. This second
push will bring another round of precipitation across the southern
Kenai and Cook Inlet.

Much more uncertainty exists further north for the Anchorage Bowl,
Eagle River, and the southern Susitna Valley. With the low expected
to weaken as it tracks up along the coast towards Prince William
Sound, and quite a bit of warm, dry air in place just above the
surface...any precipitation will be fighting hard to make it to the
surface unless we get saturate a little further down. Several of the
high-res models do have the moistening of the lower-levels
occurring, but not until early afternoon. So while there is a chance
for a period of light rain/freezing rain for Anchorage and Eagle
River (and possibly the lower Susitna Valley), it does appear that
better chances will exist along the Hillside areas where it will be
easier for precipitation to make it to the surface.

The Gulf Coastal zones will also see another round of precipitation
from this shortwave with some precipitation spilling over into the
southern Copper Basin where precipitation may start out as rain
before changing over to snow by this evening.

Looking a bit further out in time... A cooling trend will be in
store heading into the weekend as an Arctic airmass drops south
across Alaska.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A strong low in the Bering is currently located south of
Nikolski, and is the primary driver for the active weather pattern
across both the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. This low
is bringing storm force winds into the Pribilof Islands and gale
force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The low is also
advecting warm air and moisture into the Southwest Mainland. This
warm air allows temperatures to warm above freezing aloft while
temperatures remain below freezing in the much of Kuskokwim Delta
and the lower Kuskokwim Valley. However, the whole column of
temperatures remained below freezing along the southwest and west
coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. This, along with
gusty winds is allowing for blizzard conditions for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is warm
enough for precipitation types to remain as rain.

Through this morning, the low will continue weakening, but gusty
winds in the Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will
continue. Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will
significantly decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may
still be possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is
still in effect until 9 AM this morning. By Thursday, both winds
and precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air
mass moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly
drop temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By Friday,
pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta, leading
to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the weekend, this
air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low moves into
Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the Kuskokwim Delta
with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the combination of
gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme freezing spray is
possible from Nunivak Island north and west to Cape Newenham. A
Marine Weather Statement has been issued with more details on this
potential.

-JAR/CL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.

Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.


-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Low-level wind shear with calm wind near the surface and
20 knots southeasterly between 500 and 1500 feet tapers off after
16Z. Ceilings generally remain VFR. Chances for light
precipitation return after 19Z with potential MVFR ceilings after
21Z.

-ER

&&


$$

295
FXAK69 PAFG 031333
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow continue for the Interior this morning but will
end from west to east through the afternoon as a cold front pushes
southeast. Additional snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches is
expected from Lake Minchumina to Eagle. After the snow ends this
afternoon/evening, skies will clear rapidly as dry air moves in
and temperatures will drop significantly tonight into tomorrow. By
Thursday morning, it will be difficult to find many places above 0
degrees across Northern Alaska, excluding the West Coast south of
the Seward Peninsula where it will be in the single digits.
Temperatures continue to drop through the weekend with Interior
Valleys and the North Slope bottoming out around -30F to -45F.
North-northeast wind also picks up in the Interior and West Coast
Saturday and Sunday with gusts potentially up to 50 mph across
the higher terrain resulting in very low wind chills.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Additional 1 to 3 inches of snow today from Lake Minchumina to
Eagle, rapid clearing this afternoon/evening.

- Temperatures drop dramatically tonight and tomorrow with most
locations below zero tomorrow.

- A cold trend continues through this weekend, under clear skies
temperatures likely drop to -30F to -45F (potentially -50F in
the coldest spots).

- Any clouds will limit how cold it gets and the highest chances
for clouds will be in the Southeast Interior/Upper Tanana Valley.

- North-northeast winds develop on Saturday and persist into
Sunday, if the valleys get wind, this will warm up temperatures
slightly. Either way, it will be cold with very cold wind
chills.
- In terms of wind, locations over 1000ft may gust upwards of 25
to 50 mph. Interior valleys (including Fairbanks) have a chance
to see wind gusts up to 30 mph IF the inversion breaks.
- This could be a significant wind event and end up being
impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Lingering light snow in the Western Interior ends this afternoon
with clear skies and cold temperatures settling in.

- A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum
temperatures around or slightly below 0 along the coast and in
the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior Valleys.

- North-northeast winds increase this weekend and if these winds
can break through the inverted valleys, it will bump up
temperatures slightly, but wind chills would still be very cold.
East wind gusts may be up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast and
in the higher terrain.

- With temperatures below 0 and wind this strong, it could lead
to wind chills as low as -50F in some spots.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A cooling trend early this week with areas of low stratus and
scattered snow showers east of Deadhorse ending this morning.

- Breezy conditions for the Beaufort Sea Coast and in the Brooks
Range can lead to visibility below 1 mile at times today. Wind
will be diminishing tonight.

- A front moves from the Western Arctic Coast to the Eastern
Arctic Coast between Thursday to Friday with areas of light snow
along the coast. Persistent onshore flow follows afterwards
which much colder temperatures this weekend.

- Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with -20s
inland through Thursday night, then widespread temps near the -30s
with some -40F readings possible in the coldest locations this
weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The big story is the arctic trough dipping southeast bringing much
colder and drier weather to Northern Alaska. Before we get there,
we`ll have to get through the rest of the snow today. There are a
few more shortwaves moving from southwest to northeast through the
Interior today bringing mostly light snow with a few pockets of
heavier snow possible. Underneath the heaviest snow, visibility
can get below 1 mile. The snow will be ending this morning in
Tanana and by about 4 PM in Fairbanks with light snow ending
during the evening and overnight from Delta Junction to the AlCan
Border. Interior Valleys may hold on to some moisture after the
front moves through leaving a chance for areas of stratus and fog
tonight. However, there is very dry air moving in, so any stratus
or fog will be short lived and mostly gone by tomorrow morning.
The initial shot of cold air provided by this front won`t be
anything too extreme, but it will be noticeable. Coming from high
temperatures in the mid 20s yesterday, much of the forecast area
will struggle to be above 0 by Thursday morning and the cooling
continues through the week and into the weekend.

As the arctic trough dips south, 850mb temperatures will be
dropping from the single digits below zero in the Southern
Interior to the teens and near 20 below zero by tonight. The
coldest of these temperatures will be east of Fairbanks. 850mb
temperatures this low supports surface temperatures around 20F to
40F below zero under clear skies and calm winds. In the Western
Interior and West Coast, 850mb temperatures will be around 5F to
10F below zero which would bring surface temperatures to the
single digits below zero south of the Yukon and teens to 20s below
zero north of the Yukon River. The North Slope will have surface
temperatures in the teens and 20s below as well.

Temperatures continue to crash this weekend with widespread 850mb
temps around -20F to -30F. This, under clear skies and calm winds,
would support valley temperatures in the 40s and even 50s below
zero. The caveat to this is, there will be a digging trough moving
over the state and into the Gulf, so there is a chance for some
cloud cover across the Interior, especially from Fairbanks east.
All of Western Alaska from Utqiagvik to McGrath westward should be
mostly clear. Therefore, the coldest temperatures may end up
being in the Western Alaska. That`s only if the clouds in the
Central and Eastern Interior materialize. One other very important
detail is, it`s going to get windy, especially over the terrain
of the Interior. It is uncertain whether there will be enough wind
to break the strong valley inversions, but with a strong area of
vorticity moving overhead, it may be enough to bring the valleys
some wind, limiting the temperatures. Nevertheless, wind and cold
would then bring wind chill into play and there may be several
locations with wind chills near or below -40F. In terms of wind
speeds, all of the Interior summits above 1000ft have a chance to
gust 25 to 50 mph Saturday into Sunday. Towards McGrath and along
the West Coast south of the Seward Peninsula, 40 to 50 mph wind
gusts are possible. This could become an impactful wind event.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
Sunday will be the end of the windy and cold weekend for most
areas, especially north and west of Fairbanks all the way to the
Yukon Delta. 850 mb winds may reach 80 knots over the Western
Interior, and some winds will likely mix all the way down to
valley floors. Very cold wind chills are expected with ambient
temperatures zero to 15 below in windy areas and in the 20s and
30s, possibly the 40s below in sheltered areas. East of Fairbanks,
more clouds are likely which will keep conditions moderated.
Windy, dry, and cold conditions look to continue through Wednesday
for all areas except the far southeast Interior, southeast of
Tok, where isolated snow showers will continue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-806-817-853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ803-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Bianco

498
FXAK67 PAJK 031833
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
933 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.UPDATE.../to add the 18z forecast discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A passing front is bringing mainly rain, some increased wind
speeds, and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will
last through Thursday.

- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
A passing front will bring more rain today, along with elevated
winds this morning. Ridging building in behind the front this
afternoon will result in lighter onshore flow. So expect continued
light rain tonight into Thursday, but with a general downward
trend. Model guidance is showing a system approaching somewhere
between Dixon Entrance and Haida Gwaii by late Thursday night,
with an increase in rain across the southern panhandle as a
result.

Winds through this afternoon look to be 10 to 20 mph range, but
will become lighter this evening as ridging builds in behind the
front, resulting in light onshore flow. These lighter winds look
to last through at least Thursday. Winds begin to increase late
Thursday night as the system approaches the southern panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south,
another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal
trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels.
Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will
push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada,
causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the
weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for
significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday
and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going
into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy
Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to
snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in
these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more
snow than downtown with this type of pattern.

Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.

Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates
over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather
events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.

&&

.AVIATION...Primarily MVFR category flight conditions are in
store through the period. Conditions may dip into the IFR category
at times for the PAHN & PAKT areas. SFC winds will be gusty out
of the south this evening for the PAGY area. SFC winds elsewhere
through the panhandle look to be relatively benign through the
period. For today, the southern half of the panhandle will have LLWS
magnitudes at around 2 kft aloft up to around 30-35 kt out of a
southeasterly direction.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:
The front passing through the eastern gulf into the panhandle is
bringing fresh to strong southeasterly winds this morning. Behind
the front, winds diminish and become southwesterly moderate to at
time fresh this afternoon. Winds continue their downward trend
tonight and into Thursday as ridging passes over the Gulf waters.
Seas 9 to 12 ft today will begin to subside by this evening,
lowering to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday. Winds and seas look to
rise Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe
south, as a low is projected to pass through the eastern Gulf and
towards Dixon Entrance and Haida Gwaii.

Inner Channels:
Frontal passage this will bring fresh to at times strong southerly
to southeasterly winds this morning, especially across the
southern inner channels, where Small Craft Advisories are in
effect. Winds will diminish behind the front with lighter onshore
flow setting up. However, winds look remain elevated a bit longer
into this evening across the northern inner channels as a tighter
gradient persists before relaxing overnight. Winds continue this
diminishing trend across the inner channels into Thursday as
ridging sets up in the Gulf. However, winds are expected to begin
to increase Thursday night into Friday with a system passing
somewhere over or to the south of the southern panhandle, with
northerly/easterly outflow developing to the north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS

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