Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

050
FXAK68 PAFC 151452
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday Night)...

Cold, mostly dry weather will prevail for just a bit longer across
Southcentral Alaska. Latest VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery
shows much of the area cloud-free with the exception of some higher
clouds gracing the Gulf of Alaska coast and also some low stratus /
fog in the Copper River Basin. These conditions conducive to
excellent radiational cooling have allowed temps to once again reach
the single digits to low teens across much of the area, with values
below zero in the Copper River Basin. Locales across the Gulf Coast
remain considerably warmer due to the marine influence in
conjunction with cloud cover.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail for inland locations today, with
continue cloud cover across the Gulf Coast from a weakening low. By
late afternoon, remnant moisture from the front of the Gulf low will
work northward in conjunction with a potent shortwave trough digging
south and east. Guidance has trended significantly upward over
the past day with QPF across the eastern half of the Copper River
Basin. Latest consensus has most moisture remaining along and east
of the Richardson and Tok Cut-Off highways through Mentasta Pass,
with the bullseye (outside of the higher terrain) being in the
vicinity of Chitina with about 6 inches of snowfall. The highest
uncertainty with this system will be on the periphery- Glennallen
and west, and also around McCarthy.

As the snow in the eastern Copper River Basin shifts east and
diminishes late Saturday night / Sunday morning, attention turns
towards the front extending out from the strong low moving into the
Bering. Rain and gusty winds will overspread Kodiak Island first
during the day Sunday before moving into the Kenai Peninsula late
Sunday and through Sunday night into Monday. Prince William Sound
and the eastern Kenai Peninsula will see the heaviest precipitation,
but the Cook Inlet region up through the Susitna Valley could see
light snow as well on Monday. This system kicks off a very active
pattern for southern Alaska through much of the next week.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, low stratus and fog is covering much of the Southwest
Mainland. This is due to clearer skies and low level moisture.
This fog/stratus should clear out by the afternoon, leading to
mostly clear skies. Meanwhile in the Bering, a front from a low
near Attu is bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the
Western and Central Aleutians. This front will arrive at the
Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians by Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday morning. As the front progresses, a strong, compact
North Pacific low will move into the Bering by Sunday morning.
This low will set the stage for active weather for the next few
days. The low will bring an area of high end gale force winds to
the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Winds through gap
areas will be higher. By Sunday afternoon, gusty easterly winds
and precipitation will arrive to the Southwest mainland. Precipitation
will initially be in the form of snow, but aloft temperatures
will warm and cause a mix of snow and freezing rain to impact the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coastlines by late Sunday morning.
This will continue on until surface temperatures warm above
freezing on Monday. A Special Weather Statement has been issued
detailing the hazards with this event.

The track of low is still uncertain, but the current thinking is
that it will slowly progress northward, passing by Nunivak Island
by Monday afternoon. The low will slowly weaken as it does, but
not before turning winds southerly and bringing gusty winds to
inland areas of the Kuskokwim Delta by Monday afternoon. A
potential for minor coastal flooding arises with these southerly
winds. As a messy pattern remains in Southwest Alaska, showery
precipitation is expected almost everywhere Monday through
Tuesday. A front is expected to push into the Bering on Tuesday,
bringing a swath of gusty winds and precipitation to the Central
and Eastern Aleutians. Looking a bit ahead to WEdnesday reveals
this front moving into the Southwest Mainland, bringing SSE winds
to the Kuskokwim Delta and increasing the potential for minor
coastal flooding.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

An active and progressive pattern looks likely through the long
term period as several storms affect the Bering Sea and southern
Alaska over the next week. By early next week, a broad and
persistent upper level trough establishes itself over the Bering
Sea and sends a front across the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska.
As this front progresses across the Bering, elevated winds and
rain along the front are likely across the southern Bering,
including to Aleutian Chain and Pribilof Islands Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front reaches the Southwest Alaska coast by midweek
and brings light rain and snow to much of Southwest before
dissipating. This will be quickly followed by the next low lifting
out of the North Pacific as several shortwaves rotate around the
large upper low centered over the Bering. Fair model agreement
shows this system lifting across the AKPen and into Southwest
Alaska, bringing another round of light snow and rain to the
Southwest Mainland. Strong southeasterly flow promotes heavy
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf
coast Thursday into Friday. Models begin to diverge by mid to late
next week, though weather in the Gulf and Southcentral is
expected remain generally unsettled and wet as the upper trough
over the Bering begins to progress eastward. Persistent southerly
flow through mid next week will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$

546
FXAK69 PAFG 151525
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
625 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist for most of the mainland, with most
of the shower activity remaining more confined to the coastal areas
of the North Slope, as well as southeastern portions of the
Interior, mainly within the Upper Tanana Valley by later this
evening and through tonight. There could be some areas of patchy fog
and/or low stratus developing overnight. There are still going to be
some strong and gusty winds along the Northwest Arctic Coast and
across the Lisburne Peninsula, where there could be some gusty winds
approaching 40 mph at times. There will begin a more active pattern
through this weekend as we begin to see a broad area of low pressure
moving up into the Bering Sea, which will allow for an increase in
the chance of snow, and perhaps even a rain/snow/wintry mix for
portions of the YK-Delta for tomorrow, as there is some warmer air
advected up ahead of this low, which may result in a few places
getting above freezing. After that, and going into early next week,
we are going to see several low pressure systems transitioning to
the south of us, and reinforcing some warmer temperatures and
allowing for there to be a better chance of snow, and even some
gusty southerly winds through the passes for Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior through
the weekend, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations mostly out
across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double digits below
zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer Monday into Tuesday as isolated to
scattered snow chances return.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
Isabel Pass Sunday night into Monday, with gusts up to 40-50 mph
possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
through much of Saturday, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and
flurries.

- A more active weather pattern ramps up tonight into Sunday, and
then again for much of next week as a series of storms in the Bering
Sea lift north along the West Coast, supporting gusty winds and
increasingly widespread snow chances into early next week.

- Strongest winds Sunday and Monday will remain offshore and at St.
Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 45-55 mph are possible.
Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around 20-
40 mph.

- Secondary system moving in Wednesday will help to reinforce
widespread snow chances and breezy winds through midweek.

- Temperatures will still be on the colder side today, then begin to
trend warmer trend beginning tomorrow and into Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero along
the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below zero, with
coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as isolated
to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.
Currently, there is a weakening area of low pressure to our south
over the Gulf of Alaska, and a much broader trough is beginning to
enter into the Bering Sea. There is also an area of high pressure
over the Chukchi sea, and an area of low pressure over Beaufort Sea
north of Canada, with associated troughing extending over the
northeastern portion of the state. This as resulted in snow showers
to be possible for areas of the Arctic Coast, and a few snow showers
beginning to move into the Upper Tanana Valley with the
southeasterly flow ahead of the low driving up some moisture over
this area. A strengthening low around 965m associated with the broad
area of troughing is going to move up into the Bering Strait along a
triple point with an occluded low further west. Due to fact that
there is already some troughing to the north, the gradient is not
going to be as tight to produce significantly strong winds with
this, so while some areas will see some increased strong and gusty
winds along the Southwest Coast later on, these winds are not
expected to reach criteria. As this area of low pressure passes
north of the Aleutian Islands, it is going to begin to slightly
deepen, which may help to increase winds as well. There will be some
snow showers beginning to move into portions of the YD-Delta, and
eventually northward up into the Norton Sound. Also, because of the
fact that there will be some warmer air advection moving up ahead of
this low, some of the temperatures might just get warm enough to
support a rain/snow or wintry mix, or otherwise be just a heavy wet
snow.

As we continue into the weekend, we will begin to see a series of
troughs moving eastward to the south of us over the Gulf of Alaska,
and continue to provide us both with more southerly flow and
relatively warmer temperatures (teens vs singles), which is closer
to the average temperature for this time of year. There will also be
a frontal boundary expanding over the mainland by tomorrow night and
going into Monday, which will help to keep the temperatures modified
with additional cloud cover and also provide a increasing chance of
snow for the Interior, and eventually over the Brooks Range as this
front moves up towards the north. There will also be some stronger
winds through the gaps due to southerly flow, and Isabel Pass may
get some strong enough winds to get to criteria going into Monday
morning (which will continue to be monitored).

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday night through next Friday night.
A series of troughs will continue to impact the region throughout
most of the week, with relatively warmer temperatures compare to
this past week, and closer to the seasonal average for this time of
year. A consensus of the ensembles keeps an overall area of
troughing moving into the Bering Sea, and continuing to influence
the western half of the state with better chances of snow. These
members also continue to have the troughing moving further eastward
across the mainland towards the end of the week, which may also help
to bring better chances for the eastern half of the state going into
the following weekend if this verifies. The overall trend in
temperatures are a gradual warming trend throughout the later half
of next.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804>806-811-812-852-854-
856>858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-856-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Stewey

120
FXAK67 PAJK 151759
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
859 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion for 18z TAF issuance

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow and mixed snow/rain showers training along the northeast
gulf coast or just off shore. Keeping a close watch on the
Yakutat area. If they train over the top of Yakutat proper a few
overnight ( 2 to 4 possibly ) could fall.

- Occluded front from the Bering Sea parent low to move into the
panhandle area late Friday to Saturday. This will spread the
next band of organized precipitation into region Saturday.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...From the overnight, rain and snow has been reported
around the area due to a passing front. This front will continue
to track northward today. Behind the front is showers. These
showers will last through the day today with a diminishing trend
tonight into tomorrow.

This morning, we are seeing rain showers for areas south of Icy
Strait and a rain/snow mix or snow for those along and north of
Icy Strait. As the day goes on, any snow should end up being
contained to just the northern Lynn Canal area.

Along highways out of Haines and Skagway, expecting snow to linger
through Saturday morning with lower elevations mixing with rain.
Have 1 to 3 inches in the forecast now, however these overrunning
situations can be a challenge if the cold air remains in place
with continued moisture streaming into the area. But with the
diminishing trend in the showers, moisture will be a limiting
factor.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Minimal changes
to the Sunday forecast as the low moves southeast and ridging begins
to develop over the Gulf and panhandle. This will still bring a
period of lower PoPs, with some clearing in the cloud cover. The
drier weather expected to last longer for the central and southern
panhandle into early Monday morning, while some showers linger over
the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle, before the next front
begins to move in from the west Monday morning. The winds during
this period will remain lighter across the panhandle, and stay more
northerly bringing some cooler temperatures particularly for Sunday
night, dropping minimum temperatures down to around freezing for
much of the northern panhandle and areas further from the coast.

The forecast remains largely the same for the front moving through
Monday into Tuesday, with the biggest change in the forecast being
in the precipitation types and amount of snow on the highways. Model
guidance has been trending more warm at the surface, with 850 mb
temperatures staying around -4 to -5C and surface max temperatures
nudging up to the high 30s to low 40s over the central and northern
panhandle as onshore flow returns to the panhandle Monday with this
next system. Snow levels are also increasing this week, from 500 to
600 ft Monday morning further north and far from the outer
coastline, to over 1000 ft by Tuesday morning across even the
northern panhandle. This warmer air brought in by this system and
higher snow levels and wet bulb temperatures correspond to more rain
being expected as the precipitation type Tuesday and Wednesday with
the exception of the highways. Monday morning there will be possible
mixing Icy Strait corridor northward due to the lower temperatures
from overnight as the moisture moves in, but transitioning to rain
during the morning to midday.

The greatest amount of QPF is expected along the NE Gulf coast for
this system, with around 1 inch in 24 hours Monday and expecting
another 0.5 to 1 inch Tuesday and Wednesday as precipitation
continues to move into the panhandle. The rest of the panhandle
should see amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per 24 hours as rain
lingers even after the front moves through, and as another wave
moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall this system will
bring between 1.5 and 3 inches of snow to the Haines Highway and
between 3 and 5 inches of snow to the Klondike Highway in 48 hours.
The winds for this system remain largely the same in the forecast,
aside from some increases to 15 to 20 kts Wednesday across the inner
channels as the second wave moves through. Otherwise, no other wind
impacts across the inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Low CIGs from a front pushing north through the
panhandle have begun to lift for the central panhandle and will
continue to do so up through Lynn Canal through the next few
hours. Light northerly winds along the surface have allowed for
snow to continue down to the surface at Haines and Skagway through
9 am leading to much lower VIS. This precipitation should diminish
into the late morning hours, eventually transitioning to showers
with a mix of more rain then snow later. For the entire panhandle,
precipitation should clear out by early Sunday morning, with
overall improvement to VFR conditions and diminishing clouds,
particularly for the southern panhandle. No LLWS expected for the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are
centered around the low pressure that is moving through the Gulf.
As of this morning, the low pressure center is approaching the
central Gulf and is tracking southeast. The associated front has
been swinging south-to-north overnight, bringing rain and snow to
the panhandle. By this afternoon, the low will reach the eastern
Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.

Outside waters: As the low center travels through the area today,
the winds on the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 25
knots.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: Southerly winds around 5 to 15 knots are likely
with pockets of higher wind speeds. For now, expecting those
stronger winds to be near Icy Strait, Near Point Couverden, and
southern Stephens Passage. But as the front pushes northward
tonight, wind speeds in the inner channels should lighten up to
around 5 to 10 knots by late tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GJS

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