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FLUS43 KAPX 241243

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
842 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
842 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Low humidity and gusty southeast winds will result in elevated fire
danger this afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms across northern Michigan
Wednesday through Thursday.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit



ACUS01 KWNS 241551
SPC AC 241550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z


Thunderstorms will offer marginal severe-weather risk over parts of
the eastern Carolinas.

An upper low is currently centered today over GA, lifting slowly
northeastward. Large-scale lift ahead of this feature is resulting
in rather widespread showers and thunderstorms over parts of
SC/NC/VA. Northeasterly low-level winds, cool conditions near the
surface, and marginal CAPE will limit the risk of severe storms over
the majority of the region. The possible exception will be near the
SC/NC coast where a weak warm front is poised. Ample low-level
moisture and marginal surface-based instability may be sufficient
for an isolated cell to interact with the boundary and produce
damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado later today. An isolated
cell capable of hail is also possible this afternoon in vicinity of
the upper low center over western SC. Both of these threat areas
appear to be quite marginal in nature.

..Hart/Cook.. 04/24/2017


ACUS02 KWNS 241709
SPC AC 241709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected
to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri Tuesday evening, and may persist into Wednesday

An upper trough will amplify across the southern Plains with strong
southwesterly flow aloft developing from TX into the mid MS valley.
At the surface, a low pressure trough will precede a cold front,
extending from western OK into central IA at 00Z, with dryline
extending southward across central OK and into TX. The front will
move southward overnight, to a north TX to central MO line by
Wednesday morning. Ahead of these boundaries, a moistening and
destabilizing air mass will reside, with dewpoints rising into the
60s. Increasing wind fields as well as lift along the front will
result in a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms beginning
Tuesday evening across northeast OK/southeast KS.

...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Western MO...
Strong heating will occur across much of central and western OK into
southern KS, south of the cold front and along and west of the
dryline. Surface flow will be somewhat veering/southwesterly, but
winds will back by evening as a 50 kt low level jet core develops
generally east of I-35. Storms are expected to initiate near the
dryline/cold front intersection across south central KS or north
central OK, then increase in coverage and intensity during the
evening as lift increases along the front. Mean wind fields will
increase overnight with the main upper trough amplification. A
mixed-mode of supercells and linear/bows appears probable, with
large hail and damaging winds expected. The linear forcing mechanism
coupled with nocturnal timing suggest any tornado threat will be low
or brief.

..Jewell.. 04/24/2017


NWUS53 KAPX 201819

219 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....





FXUS63 KAPX 241940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure extends from Ontario into Quebec this afternoon, with
low pressure in the central and north central conus. A warm front
extended from this low pressure into MN/srn WI and srn Lake
Michigan. One shortwave was lifting through the Dakotas underneath
decent double jet upper divergence and strong low to mid level warm
advection. The result was an area of showers within deeper moisture,
moving up toward south central Canada. Across nrn Michigan, a band
of clouds in higher level warm advection has lifted north of
Chippewa county, while only cirrus was approaching from the west.
Thus, it was mainly sunny, and with a very dry air mass and warm
temperatures across much of NW lower, humidities have tanked there.
A gusty southeast wind was present most areas, which is also
providing a cooling effect off Lake Huron into eastern upper and NE
lower due to the still cold water.

More quiet weather heading into tonight and Tuesday, although we
will see some change. Upper troughing will slowly edge closer to the
western Great Lakes, with weak shortwaves bringing in added higher
level cloud. In addition, persistent gusty SE flow will draw in
added lower level clouds from closed system in the Carolinas. The
atmosphere will not be able to moisten up enough, nor will the
stronger advections and upper dynamics out west get close enough for
generating any precipitation in nrn Michigan. So, the only change
will mainly be focused around higher humidities and cloudier skies.

The cloudier skies may try and suppress high temperatures somewhat
tomorrow, but not just sure on that yet. Will ride the upper 60s in
downsloping areas of NW lower, to cooler low 50s to low 60s in
coastal areas of Lake Huron. Lows tonight much less chilly due to
increased winds just off the sfc. Readings in the low to mid 40s
will be common and slightly milder in downsloping regions of NW


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Much more active midweek...

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday, some of which may include heavier
downpours. Small, low confidence, threat for a severe storm or two
Wednesday afternoon-evening.

Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday night, troughing across the midsection
of the country is expected to sharpen as a shortwave (currently just
off the coast from the Pacific NW via this afternoon`s water vapor
imagery) races through the four corners region aiding in
cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies. Developing low pressure strengthens
as it progresses northeastward toward the Great Lakes during the
midweek timeframe with the wave eventually becoming negatively
tilted. Open tap to Gulf moisture will allow for increasing deep
layer moisture Tuesday, but more so Wednesday-Thursday with PWs
progged to climb to near 1.25 inches. Threat for showers arrives
Tuesday night into Wednesday across far NW Lower/eastern Upper
before spreading eastward Wednesday night into Thursday (along with
the threat for thunderstorms) as better forcing and mid-level
dynamics rotate through the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Main forecast concerns/challenges revolve
around the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe and include PoPs,
thunder chances, and any potential for severe weather and heavier
periods of rainfall.

Scattered shower chances begin to increase to an extent Tuesday
evening-night, mainly across far northwest Lower and eastern Upper,
however the bulk of precip is expected to remain well off to our
northwest and across the lower Mississippi Valley. By Wednesday
morning into the afternoon, strung out low pressure is expected to
move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes
with a warm front draped across southern Lake Superior into Ontario
and a trailing cold front southwestward toward the southern plains.
All this to say, gradually increasing shower chances to a greater
extent Wednesday afternoon and especially late Wednesday night-
Thursday. Scattered thunder threat also increases during this
timeframe as a plume of several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is progged to
work its way across sections of northern Lower (some guidance
suggests upwards of 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE...but this seems quite a bit
overdone considering the mid-60s dewpoints also progged). With the
potential for abundant mid-high clouds on Wednesday, realizing any
significant amount of instabilty remains low confidence. 0-6 km bulk
shear values Wednesday afternoon-evening surge to more than 50 kts
across the area, but overall severe threat is limited by the
aforementioned low confidence instability and lack of forcing
locally. Low-level winds likely even too strong to develop lake
breezes to be a focus for convective initiation.

24/12z suite of guidance doesn`t provide much in the way of
confidence as to how Wednesday night through Thursday will play out
due to fairly significant differences (even only 72 hours away) with
respect to the overall evolution/amplification of low pressure along
with cold front timing and axis of heaviest rainfall. As was
mentioned earlier, open tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture aids in
increasing moisture with Pwats over an inch across the region. When
combined with what`s expected to be a tight baroclinic zone along
the front and fairly strong mid-level dynamics/forcing, the
potential is there for periods of heavier rainfall. The question
is...where does that set up? Trends suggest it will be off to our
west across Wisconsin, perhaps clipping far western sections of the
area from time to time Wednesday night through Thursday. Worth
watching what should be an interesting evolution to this system over
the next couple of days.

Well-above normal high temps (10-15 degrees above the normal 53-58
degrees) Wednesday...ranging from the upper 50s across E. Upper to
the low-mid 70s south of the bridge (cooler near the lakes). Highs
fall back closer to normal Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Active weather will continue through the extended period as a series
of disturbances push through the area. There could be a brief break
in precip Friday as high pressure noses in. But aside from that, a
slow moving system lifting through the Great Lakes will make for a
rainy weekend, continuing into early next week. There will be cold
air filtering in as these systems exit, and areas especially in
eastern upper could see a few flakes mixing in with any precip, but
nothing of real significance.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017


High pressure extending from Ontario into Quebec, combined with a
warm front that will lift into the region tonight, will resulting
in a strengthening pressure gradient and gusty SE winds over the
TAF period. This increased wind will also bring about LLWS issues
tonight. No precipitation will occur, but we will see an influx of
higher level clouds from the west tonight, and increasing lower
level VFR CIGS from the SE on Tuesday.


Issued at 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure extending from Ontario to Quebec, combined with a warm
front lifting north into nrn Michigan tonight, will further tighten
up the pressure gradient. Current advisory level winds over most of
the nearshore waters will continue into Tuesday, before low pressure
and a cold front advance into the region Wednesday and waken the
gradient. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday night
through Thursday, with at least the potential for strong
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Winds will
remain south to southeast through the forecast period.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday
for LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.



ACUS11 KWNS 240232
SPC MCD 240232

Mesoscale Discussion 0552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Central/Eastern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240232Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to persist into late tonight,
especially across portions of South Carolina. The strongest cells
will be capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or
two. Watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently increased in coverage and
intensity across portions of eastern GA into west-central SC. This
increase occurred in conjunction with a collision of the
westward-moving sea breeze and an eastward-moving outflow boundary
emanating from earlier convection over GA. The resulting composite
boundary extends southward from a weak surface low over eastern GA,
with another nearly-stationary boundary extending eastward from the
low across central SC.

A few cells have exhibited weak rotation across portions of
west-central SC in Aiken and Barnwell counties, though these are
likely slightly elevated and up to now have not appeared to pose an
appreciable severe risk. Cells further south have shown less
organization, but as they advance eastward into a somewhat more
unstable airmass across the coastal plain of SC, some increase in
intensity is possible with a risk of locally damaging wind in the
short term.

Later this evening, a modest increase in the low-level jet is
anticipated in response to a well-defined upper low that will move
slowly east-southeastward into GA. As this occurs, cells that are
able to interact with the frontal boundary (which may move slowly
northward as a warm front with time) may pose a threat of a brief
tornado or two, though widespread convection and relatively weak
deep-layer shear will likely keep the severe threat relatively
limited. While a low-end severe threat will exist for much of the
night, the magnitude of the threat at any particular location and
time is currently expected to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 32718163 33238157 33728142 34058052 33997956 33827892
33227913 32787973 32368044 31878113 31948167 32278171

No Current Product

WGUS43 KAPX 200203

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1003 PM EDT WED APR 19 2017

...The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Michigan...

Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Expected heavy rainfall...of 1.00 to 1.50 inches to impact the
Rifle River basin during the next 24 hours. The river is expected to
rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning.


Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement
on this developing situation Thursday morning as new information
becomes available.


1003 PM EDT WED APR 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Rifle River near Sterling.
* from Friday afternoon to Saturday evening....
* At 8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 3.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday afternoon and continue
to rise to near 6.7 feet by early Saturday morning.the river will
fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at
River View Campground.



Rifle River
Sterling 6 3.3 Wed 08 PM 4.4 6.7 5.2


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
4408 8384 4399 8379



WGUS83 KAPX 211309 CCA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
954 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in

Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Rainfall over the last 24 hours in the Rifle River basin was
not as heavy as expected. Because of this...the river is no
longer expected to reach flood stage near Sterling. The flood
warning has thus been cancelled.


Safety message...

Interests along the Rifle River should still monitor river levels
over the next couple of days. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...
or local media outlets...for the latest information.


954 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At 9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 5.4 feet early
Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at
River View Campground.



Rifle River
Sterling 6 3.8 Thu 09 PM 5.4 4.4 3.7


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
4408 8384 4399 8379