National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Icing This Morning, Icing Possible Again Tonight and Saturday Night

A period of unsettled weather continues today, as a slow moving system brings rain chances through the weekend. Daytime temperatures will be warm enough for rain, but overnight lows dropping below freezing will bring icing concerns for some. The most... Read More >

 

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000
FLUS43 KAPX 240736
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-251000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
336 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light freezing rain and light icing will continue to impact
eastern upper Michigan and parts of northern lower Michigan
through mid morning. See ongoing advisory and special weather
statement for details.

Another period of light freezing rain is possible tonight into
Saturday morning across portions of northern lower Michigan...
primarily the higher terrain areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The potential for freezing rain continues across portions of
Northern Michigan during the nighttime and early morning hours
from Saturday night through Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report icing amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


704
ACUS01 KWNS 241634
SWODY1
SPC AC 241632

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX
AND ARK-LA-TEX REGION...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the
south-central U.S. late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and a
few tornadoes appear most likely over parts of east Texas and the
Ark-LA-Tex region.

...East TX/Ark-LA-Tex region to lower MS River Valley...
The nearly closed cyclone centered over the south-central High
Plains late this morning will reach the Ozarks vicinity by early
Saturday morning. Ahead of this cyclone, low-level moisture will
gradually increase and spread northward through the afternoon ahead
of a north/south-oriented Pacific cold front/effective dryline.

Although considerable cloud cover precedes the cold front, current
thinking is that storms will initially intensify across parts of
east-central/northeast TX by mid/late afternoon as low-level
confluence increases and trough-related DPVA overspreads the region.
Effective shear magnitudes around 50 kt will support organized lines
and some embedded supercell structures with a mixed severe hail/wind
risk as storms mature. After a modest diurnal slackening,
south-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL are expected to
increase in earnest by early/mid evening from far east Texas across
western/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas. This will
nocturnally enlarge low-level hodographs while contributing to the
likelihood of embedded bows/circulations with related damaging
wind/tornado risks.

...Portions of KS/lower MO River Valley...
Low-topped convection is expected to develop this afternoon on the
immediate east/northeast periphery of the nearly vertically stacked
south-central Plains-centered cyclone. The appears most probable
near the surface occlusion and effective dry line across central and
eastern portions of KS. Some severe hail will be possible aside from
gusty winds. While the setup appears far from classic for
cold-core-related tornadoes given that late-stage-weakening trend of
the cyclone and southeastward-progressing front, a few funnels or
brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon across
east-central KS. Farther east, a somewhat separate corridor of
mostly linearly organized strong/severe thunderstorms are expected
near the cold front across parts of MO.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/24/2017

$$



000
ACUS02 KWNS 241746
SWODY2
SPC AC 241746

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the central Gulf Coast States and western and middle
Tennessee on Saturday. A marginal risk for a strong to severe storm
is also possible into the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Latest models are in general agreement with the evolution of the
closed low and attendant trough undergoing weakening as the 500-mb
low tracks northeastward from northeast OK/southwest MO region to
the mid Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. This trend in the upper
pattern should result in gradual weakening of 500-mb winds across
the eastern periphery of the synoptic trough, and the southern
extent of a southerly low-level jet shifting away from the southern
extent of the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the
attendant low will track from southwest MO to west-central IL area
while it gradually weakens. A cold front trailing
south-southwestward will advance east across the lower and middle MS
Valleys.

Meanwhile, a progressive Pacific trough will track from CA through
the Southwest States to the southern Rockies on Saturday.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States to western/middle TN...

A band of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) should be ongoing
at the beginning of the forecast period (early Saturday morning)
from the middle MS Valley region to western MS. The greatest
severe-weather threat with the early morning storms should be across
the lower MS Valley where instability will be stronger combined with
strong bulk shear and a 40-60 kt southerly low-level jet will
enhance the damaging wind threat and some tornado threat. This
activity may weaken as it advances east into an environment that is
initially more stable with eastward extent toward western AL.
However, the warm sector will moisten into Saturday afternoon, given
southerly low-level flow, while diabatic heating and some steepening
of midlevel lapse rates support moderate instability across much of
the Slight Risk area. MLCAPE across western and middle TN should be
weaker, generally less than 1000 J/kg.

Models are in general agreement with new thunderstorm development
occurring along much of the cold front as it advances east into the
destabilizing environment. All severe hazards will be possible,
given sufficient bulk shear for storm organization, with damaging
winds and a tornado threat being the primary severe threats, as
modest lapse rates may tend to limit a hail threat. Despite weaker
instability with northward extent, the tornado threat may tend to be
greater across the northern extent of the Slight Risk area as the
low-level jet shifts away from the southern extent of the lower MS
Valley.

Although low-level winds will tend to veer across the southern
extent of the lower MS Valley Saturday afternoon, the exit region of
a strong west-northwesterly midlevel jet reaching LA and southern MS
may result in a few robust updrafts where the environment is more
unstable. Damaging winds and hail should be the primary threats
with the afternoon to early evening storms across this region.

...Middle MS Valley...
Cold 500-mb temperatures/steepening midlevel lapse rates and forcing
for ascent ahead of the closed low track suggest a few stronger
storms will be possible Saturday afternoon.

...Northern AZ...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across northern AZ and far
southern UT Saturday afternoon as lapse rates steepen and forcing
for ascent increases with the eastward progression of the CA trough.
Cold 500-mb temperatures and steep lapse rates suggest small hail
and/or locally strong wind gusts will be possible, though overall
coverage is not expected to be great enough to warrant a categorical
risk area, at this time.

..Peters.. 03/24/2017

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 241333
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FREEZING RAIN SAULT SAINT MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
03/24/2017 E0.10 INCH CHIPPEWA MI SPOTTER

UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.


&&

$$

ASULLIVA


275
FXUS63 KAPX 241703
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
103 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Low pressure continues to develop to the lee of the Rockies near
the Panhandle of Oklahoma. Associated warm front/inverted trough
axis extends from this low thru Kansas...Iowa into Southern
Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Elongated area of precip continues
to fire north of the trough axis...streaming thru portions of
Northern Wisconsin and Central/Eastern Upper Michigan.
Unfortunately temps are still hovering around the freezing mark
across Eastern Upper Michigan...keeping precip type across this
area teetering on the rain/freezing rain line. In coordination
with MQT...have extended the Winter Wx Advisory for this area thru
18Z at which time temps should (hopefully) have risen above
freezing...bringing an end to the potential for icing conditions
due to freezing rain. Northern Lower Michigan is largely dry but
mainly cloudy at this hour...save for a few breaks in the clouds
across our far southern CWA this morning. Will likely need to make
some downward adjustments to POPs for our southern counties based
on short term model and radar trends that keep higher POPs focused
to the north. Temps have warmed well into the 30s across Northern
Lower Michigan...so no threat of ice remains for these areas.

UPDATE Issued at 437 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Temps still hovering in the lower 30s in the tip of the mitt with
another batch of showers now spreading into the region and
dewpoints still under 30F. Apparently enough cooling to produce
light icing on area roads (particularly back roads) as reported
from incoming shift and local schools. Thus, have decided to
hoist WW.Y for parts of northern lower Michigan through 9 am.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Periodic light freezing rain...

High Impact Weather Potential...light freezing rain/icing this
morning and possibly again tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split flow pattern across the CONUS
this morning with the southern branch diving into a closed mid
level circulation across the SW CONUS where a strong mid level
short wave and occluding surface low pressure system is
found...and warm front arcing up through the midwest/southern
lower Michigan. Northern branch runs across the northern tier of
states and across the Great Lakes with a strengthening upper jet
core running across the far northern lakes region. Northern stream
surface low resides across Hudson Bay with a cold front swinging
through Ontario...pressing into the far northern lakes. Strong
Warm advection forcing along and north of the warm front has
produced several batches of precip (and spotty thunder) sliding
across the state overnight. Precip is mainly liquid...causing some
FZRA issues across upper Michigan. Temps are above freezing
across northern lower Michigan although dewpoints remain in the
20s and some spotty light icing has also been reported by a few
ASOS obs across the higher terrain and the tip of the mitt.

Occluded low pressure near the Kansas/Colorado border will slowly
advance through the south-central plains today and into Missouri
tonight...while associated warm front remains somewhat stationary
arcing through the midwest and across far southern lower Michigan.
Northern stream cold front sags into northern Michigan...while
strong canadian high pressure builds through Ontario and noses
into the northern lakes region by Saturday morning. Northern
Michigan remains between these two systems with increasing
confluent mid level flow/deformation setting up across the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Icing concerns this morning and again
tonight.

Initial batch of warm advection forcing/precip will push east of
the region early this morning. But...increasing confluent
flow/and a relatively narrow low-mid level deformation axis will
set up across Wisconsin and eastward across northern lower
Michigan...then remain in place through much of the day. One can
already see this setting up upstream per regional radar plots
along with a nice push of moisture from the upstream low
spreading northeastward into the midwest. Shaping up to for a
narrow axis of rainfall/high POPs/higher QPF pointing right
across the CWA...with guidance right now suggesting areas north of
M-72 to the straits seeing the best chances/highest QPF.
Fortunately, surface temps will be warming safely above freezing
everywhere by mid/late morning...ending the icing threat. Will
let the current advisory for freezing rain run it`s course through
15Z...although day shift may be able to trim it earlier.

Tonight: High pressure anticipated to develop across Ontario,
suppressing tighter thermal gradient/deformation axis/precip
southward with time, while colder air begins to spread into
northern Michigan. Will probably begin to see wintry mix
precip/light icing issues once again along the northern edge of
precip axis as it pushes south...which may ultimately warrant
another winter weather advisory for parts of northern lower
Michigan tonight. But...will let day crew assess those
possibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...To Ice or not to Ice Part Deux...

High Impact Weather Potential...Icing potential will impact portions
of NE Lower and E Upper Saturday night and Sunday night. The best
night for the icing with significant amounts looks to be Saturday
night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The sfc low at 12z/Sat is in central
Missouri with the 500 mb low stacked up over it. This produces an
easterly flow from the James Bay high, undercutting the warm air
aloft with cool, dry air. This keep the rain south of the Straits
for the day, but as the low crosses the Mississippi River into
Illinois 06z/Sun, the moisture and the warm front moves north
bringing the precipitation north to E Upper. soundings for E Upper
show that the likelihood of FZRA is pretty high. Models suggest that
around 0.1" is possible. Of course, as has been said the last few
days, there is a cycle to this, with Sunday starting with FZRA,
changing to -RA as the temperatures warm. Sunday night, the
temperatures in E Upper again fall below freezing with the continued
dry easterly flow. Although it looks like the temperatures in N
Lower remain above freezing through the night.

Primary Forecast Concerns...The model profiles again have the region
on the razors edge of freezing temperatures at the sfc, but are have
a decent warm nose in the mid levels. This will lead to freezing
precipitation or non-freezing precipitation. Think that with the
cool, dry easterly flow in E Upper and in NE Lower that it is more
likely to be below freezing for several hours, while the west side
of the state remains above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...With the original low from
Sunday having filled in, a secondary low forms over southern
Missouri and begins to move up the Ohio Valley. This puts the
forecast area on the back side of the low, and we again get cooling,
but looking at the model profiles, it is of the whole column, so
will expect snow over the region (probably minor accumulations at
this point) as the low moves into New England on Tuesday. High
pressure then builds into the region and stays over the Upper Great
Lakes through the day on Thursday. Thursday night, we may be getting
into a similar situation like what we have now, with a low moving
out of the C Plains and cool, dry flow out of Ontario. There is some
uncertainty with the how this evolves, but it is something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Widespread precip and IFR conditions will slowly spread southward
back into Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening
along and north of the inverted trough axis associated with low
pressure developing over the Southern Plains. Precip type will
remain mostly rain thru this evening...with some mixed precip
possible overnight into Saturday morning...especially along and
north of M-72 (for APN/PLN). Light N/NE low level winds will
shift to the E/NE on Saturday and will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts
with some higher gusts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Winds/waves continue to diminish this morning and have thus
trimmed remaining small craft advisory just a little early.
Winds/waves will remain below small craft advisory criteria
through tonight. They will increase again on Saturday as low
pressure tracks up into the midwest and high pressure builds down
out of Canada. Another round of small craft advisories may be
needed for Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...TBA



036
ACUS11 KWNS 240231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240231
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78...

Valid 240231Z - 240330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving line of thunderstorms will continue to move
east into the overnight. Although an isolated large hail or damaging
wind gust will be possible, the overall severe weather threat should
diminish with time.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front will continue to accelerate east,
overtaking a dryline across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The
result will be a brief increase in thunderstorm intensity and
coverage as low-level convergence increases, especially across the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, with time, weakening
instability, increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing
surface moisture to the east should result in an overall weakening
thunderstorm trend. As such, the severe thunderstorm watch will be
allowed to expire.

..Marsh/Thompson.. 03/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

LAT...LON 33620279 35750296 38120264 39140159 38980020 37049976
35359971 34129983 33420005 32810096 32950241 33620279



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