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000
FLUS43 KAPX 240623
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
251200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-5NM East of
Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National
Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-Grand Traverse Bay
south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point
to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac
Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand
Traverse Light MI-Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-Manistee to
Point Betsie MI-Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to
Point Iroquois MI-St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E.
Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand
Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across
Northern Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 240600
SWODY1
SPC AC 240559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms -- and possibly a severe storm or two --
may occur during the afternoon across portions of Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stagnant, but high-amplitude flow field aloft is
expected to continue today, with the western U.S. trough making
minimal eastward progress toward a stalwart eastern U.S. ridge.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to make slow southeastward
progress across the north central U.S. and central Plains states, as
a weak frontal low shifts quickly north-northeast across the Plains
toward Ontario through the period.

In the western Atlantic, Hurricane Maria is expected to remain well
offshore.

...Parts of central and northern Minnesota...
As a weak surface low shifts northeast across Minnesota during the
afternoon in conjunction with weak short-wave troughing, a small
cluster of semi-organized storms may develop by mid afternoon, as
modest destabilization -- hindered by weak lapse rates aloft --
develops. Despite the thermodynamic deficiency, favorably strong
flow aloft and some veering with height -- especially near the
surface low -- would suggest potential for one or two sustained/more
intense updrafts to evolve. As such, will introduce
low-probability/MRGL risk area in parts of Minnesota for the
afternoon hours. Expect storms to diminish by evening, as the low
shifts into Canada and diurnal stabilization commences.

..Goss/Gleason.. 09/24/2017

$$


586
ACUS02 KWNS 240527
SWODY2
SPC AC 240526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and storms are expected in portions of the
southern Great Plains. The severe risk with this activity is
expected to be minimal.

...Synopsis...
A persistent longwave trough will remain across the West while
making slow eastward progress into the Dakotas. Downstream,
meridionally oriented mid-level flow will remain in place from the
southern High Plains northward to Minnesota and vicinity - although
this flow should be weaker relative to past days. Ridging will also
remain located across the Northeast.

At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will advance southward
across the Plains and extend from northeastern New Mexico
northeastward to western Wisconsin by early evening. Southerly flow
ahead of this front will maintain 60s F dewpoints, while convergence
fosters an arc of convection from the Big Bend areas of Texas
northward into western Oklahoma and into Iowa.

Although surface heating ahead/away from ongoing convection may
foster weak destabilization during peak heating hours, weak
mid-level lapse rates and modest vertical shear should result in any
damaging wind threat being too sparse to merit severe probabilities
at this time.

..Cook.. 09/24/2017

$$



424
NWUS53 KAPX 230123
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
923 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEVERING 45.64N 84.77W
09/22/2017 EMMET MI PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
ESTIMATED. TWO TREES KNOCKED DOWN ASSOCIATED
WITH GUST FRONT.


&&

$$

MJG




000
FXUS63 KAPX 240648 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Another day of record-setting warmth...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remain over the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley
early this morning...with the pronounced upper level ridge axis
aligned within this same area. Extended period of unseasonably warm
temps and dry conditions continue across this entire region. Closest
convection remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent
inverted trough extending from Texas thru the Central Plains to near
the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Dwpts depressions are shrinking...
resulting in the development of some patchy fog across our CWA early
this morning.

For today...strong subsidence...dry air thru the column and a rather
strong mid level cap will keep any chances of precip at bay today
and tonight. Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook agrees with this...
keeping general thunder west of our CWA closer to the inverted
trough.

Expect yet another hot lake September day....with several locations
again matching or breaking max temp records today. Afternoon highs
will range from the upper 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower
90s for most of Northern Lower Michigan. Expect another muggy night
as temps drop into the low to mid 60s.

Records for today:
Record (Year)
GLR 86 (2007)
TVC 89 (2007)
APN 89 (2007)
ANJ 88 (1892)
HTL 86 (2007)
PLN 87 (2007)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Daily record high temperatures likely through Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Little change in the large pattern is anticipated
through Monday as upper troughing remains anchored across the
Intermountain West with ridging continuing to prevail over the
eastern two thirds of the country. However, large upper level closed
high pressure overhead late this weekend gradually shifts off to the
east throughout the day Monday...and more so Tuesday, allowing for
energy from the western trough to eject toward the Great Lakes. This
energy is expected to ultimately phase with another shortwave
sliding across southern Canada Tuesday afternoon, bringing
substantial height falls into the Great Lakes region by midweek.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Remaining warm and somewhat
humid both Monday and Tuesday with several high temperatures records
expected to be broken once again. Tuesday would be the sixth
consecutive day of record highs in an impressive stretch of late
season warm weather that has consistently featured highs 20-30
degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday current records:

Monday / Tuesday
ANJ: 83(1908) / 84(1908)
GLR: 76(1958) / 80(1999)
HTL: 91(1920) / 89(1920)
TVC: 89(1908) / 88(1908)
APN: 85(1935) / 88(1920)
PLN: 80(2007) / 83(1973)

An increasing shower/storm threat arrives midweek as an approaching
cold front is set to slide across northern Michigan. As was alluded
to by the prior shift, question marks revolve around exact timing of
the front, increased cloud cover, and the period of greatest
potential for any precip. Current trends continue to suggest the
aforementioned cold front doesn`t arrive to northern Michigan until
Tuesday evening at the earliest; however, developing convection
across Wisconsin and the western U.P. may reach eastern upper and
far northwest Lower in isolated fashion by late Tuesday afternoon.
At the very least, increased cloud cover seems likely west of US-
131.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Late Tuesday`s cold front mentioned above continues to progress
eastward across northern Michigan right through Wednesday morning.
Not impressed with recent trends regarding shower coverage Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning as northern Michigan lies in poor
location relative to the upper level jet, the best support remains
focused across southern Ontario and deep layer moisture axis
ahead of the front diminishes with time. The main story will
certainly revolve around much cooler temperatures prevailing
Wednesday right on through the weekend with the coolest days
expected to be Friday- Saturday as a reinforcing shot of cool air
aloft results in high temperatures struggling to reach the mid-
upper 50s. The combination of mid level waves passing through the
northern tier of the CONUS and lake processes beginning to ramp up
locally yields the possibility of showery periods late this week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Solid VFR conditions anticipated tonight through Sunday night. A
little bit of fog/mist out there...primarily at MBL and PLN. Light
winds tonight...S/SW under 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Monday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Monday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MR


000
ACUS11 KWNS 232256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232255
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232255Z - 240100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and strong/damaging winds
may occur with isolated supercells over the next several hours. The
overall severe threat is expected to remain very isolated, and watch
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A couple supercells have developed late this afternoon
within a modest low-level upslope flow regime across parts of
southeastern NM and far west TX. Winds strengthen to around 35-40 kt
at mid levels as a highly amplified large-scale trough remains
centered over the Great Basin. A veering wind profile per recent
VWPs from KMAF is also contributing to around 35-45 kt of effective
bulk shear, which will allow for continued supercell structures
through the evening. A narrow corridor of weak to moderate
instability has developed across this region where some clearing has
occurred. Given ongoing supercell structures and recent MRMS MESH
data, isolated large hail will continue to be a threat. Strong to
locally damaging winds may also occur where low-level lapse rates
have steepened due to diurnal heating. Both instability and shear
weaken with eastward extent, and with the loss of diurnal heating
that will occur later this evening, storms should eventually
decrease in intensity. The ongoing threat for large hail and
strong/damaging winds is expected to remain too isolated to warrant
watch issuance.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31010570 31880547 32730498 33590412 33770282 32930238
31820227 30880244 29910268 29440348 29500409 29720467
30500499 31010570


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