National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 

Quick Links:

Latest Information
Weather Story
Latest Weather Story
Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Latest Watches/Warnings/Advisories
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Latest 7-Day Forecast Precipitation Totals
Regional Radar Loop
Regional Radar Loop
Recreational Forecast 
Recreational Forecast
Expected Weekly Hazards
Expected Weekly Hazards

 

Current River/Streamflow Information
Latest River Levels/Forecasts
Latest River Levels
USGS Streamflow Gages
USGS Streamflow Gages
River Flood Outlook (NCRFC)
River Forecast Information

 

Precipitation Info/Forecasts
Radar-Derived Storm Total Precip
Storm Total Precipitation Image
Year-to-Date Precip Departure
Year-to-Date Precipitation Departure
Precipitation Mosaics
Precipitation Mosaics
Day 1 Forecast Precip (0-24hr)
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation
Day 2 Forecast Precip (24-48hr)
Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Day 3 Forecast Precip (48-72hr)
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation

 

Daily Weather Maps
12-Hour Forecast
12 Hour Forecast
24-Hour Forecast
24 Hour Forecast
36-Hour Forecast
36 Hour Forecast

 

Product Browser

 


000
FLUS43 KAPX 250025
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
825 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-260030-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
825 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunder Sunday, and again Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

MSB


000
ACUS01 KWNS 250540
SWODY1
SPC AC 250539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
WY TO CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night
across portions of the central High Plains, and during the day
Thursday across portions of the mid-Atlantic region.

...Central Plains...

Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over the northern inter-mountain region. Large-scale forcing
ahead of this feature should aid a band of mid-level moistening
across southern WY during the day such that convection should
develop relatively early in the diurnal cycle as surface
temperatures warm to near 60F. It appears a forced-corridor of
convection will evolve across northern CO/southern WY by early
afternoon then slowly grow upscale as it spreads/propagates
southeast into the central High Plains. While low-level moisture
will be somewhat lacking, mid-upper 40s dew points should be more
than adequate for robust surface-based thunderstorm development
ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings across northeast CO
suggest adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells and large
hail and gusty winds can be expected with this high-based activity.
As LLJ strengthens across the Plains, in response to the short wave,
strong thunderstorms could spread into northwest KS during the
evening hours.

...Middle Atlantic...

Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the Middle
Atlantic region early in the period as a negative-tilt trough
translates east of the Appalachians. Latest short-range model
guidance suggests 500mb speed max will round the base of the trough
over southern GA at 12z then eject off the Carolina coast during the
afternoon. Exit region of this feature should aid convection across
the Middle Atlantic and isolated strong storms may evolve within a
corridor of focused ascent. NAM guidance suggests much of this
region will see appreciable boundary-layer warming - more than
adequate for surface-based parcels to reach their convective
temperatures. Latest thinking is thunderstorms should concentrate
across the northern Middle Atlantic where low-level convergence will
be stronger in the presence of a pronounced east-west surface front
draped across the Delmarva into southern PA. Forecast buoyancy is
not that great across this region but shear profiles seem adequate
for at least low severe probs, including hail, wind, and perhaps a
brief tornado.

...FL...

Have opted not to include severe probs across the central and
southern Peninsula despite the possibility for frontal convection
early in the period. Latest short-range guidance, including several
high-res solutions, differ considerably regarding the coverage and
intensity with this early-day activity. With large-scale forcing
expected to lift north of this region it`s not entirely clear how
organized thunderstorms will be despite convection evolving along
the southern fringe of strong mid-level flow. If it becomes clear
early-day convection will be organized or more robust, severe probs
may be added at 13z.

..Darrow/Mosier.. 05/25/2017

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EAST TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across the central High
Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley region.
The greatest coverage of severe storms will be from northeastern
Colorado into western and central Kansas.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low over the northeast states will lift northeast
while another upper low over Manitoba/Saskatchewan Provinces moves
little. Within the relatively low-amplitude flow that will evolve
south of these features, a shortwave trough will move across the
central High Plains late in the day. A cold front will extend south
from the upper Midwest across Kansas/eastern Colorado Friday
afternoon, while a second cold front extends from the southern High
Plains across Oklahoma to a weak surface low near the
Missouri/Illinois border. A warm front will extend east from the
low across the Ohio Valley.

...Central Plains...
An increasingly moist southeasterly low-level flow (upper 40s/near
50 deg F surface dew points) will develop across the higher terrain
of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming on Friday, with mid/upper
50s farther east across Kansas. This will result in MLCAPE of
750-1500 j/kg by late afternoon, and mid-level flow of 35 kts will
contribute to deep-layer shear of around 40 kts. Thunderstorms
should develop across the high terrain as the upslope flow is
augmented by ascent with the approaching upper-level impulse.
Initial storm mode will include a few supercells capable of very
large hail given steepening mid-level lapse rates. Damaging gusts
will also be possible, and forecast soundings depict low-level
hodograph curvature that suggests at least some risk for a tornado.
A developing 30-35 kt low-level jet/warm advection regime should
result in one or two clusters eventually evolving and moving east
overnight across western/central Kansas. A continued risk for large
hail and strong winds will exist with these storms.

...Missouri east to the Ohio Valley...
Substantial variability exists with latest guidance regarding
thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary across Missouri
Friday afternoon, and potentially just north of the warm front over
the Ohio Valley Friday night. Convective inhibition will likely hold
through much of the day, but frontal convergence may result in
isolated thunderstorm development in the 21z-03z time frame along
the cold front. Strong surface-based buoyancy and 35-40 kts of
deep-layer shear would support severe storms with any sustained
updrafts. Given uncertainty regarding development, will retain the
Marginal Risk with this outlook.

Developing warm advection Friday night and lift with a mid-level
impulse may result in thunderstorm development north of the warm
front. Guidance remains divergent regarding the location of the
front and the potential for development, but believe sufficient
confidence exists to maintain Marginal Risk across portions of the
Ohio Valley. Moderate elevated buoyancy and 45 kts of westerly
mid-level flow would be sufficient for a severe hail and wind risk.

...Southern Plains...
Despite intense diurnal heating, strong capping is expected to
suppress convective development along a dryline extending from
south-central Oklahoma into southwest Texas.

..Bunting.. 05/25/2017

$$


006
NWUS53 KAPX 241641
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1241 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN MOORESTOWN 44.47N 84.95W
05/24/2017 M1.50 INCH MISSAUKEE MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

ALM




251
FXUS63 KAPX 250350
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1150 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Next wave of forcing and deeper moisture making slow but steady
progress northwest on north side of fully mature Ohio Valley low
pressure. Band of attendant showers just pushing onshore down near
Saginaw Bay. Radar trends confirm high res guidance progs of
backing this band of showers further northwest with time, with
showers looking like a pretty good bet through the early morning,
particularly across northeast lower Michigan. Loss of any
diurnally driven instability should negate any thunder concerns
and keep rainfall intensity limited. As one would expect given
clouds and rain trends, not expecting much of a nocturnal
temperature response tonight, with lows by morning only falling
into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Broad surface low remains centered over
the Ohio Valley this afternoon...with the upper low centered to the
west over Missouri. Scattered shower activity continues across much
of our CWA...but has diminished in areal coverage as deeper moisture
becomes better focused to the south around the surface low center.
The few breaks in OVC we have seen across southern sections of our
CWA have quickly filled back in as expected...greatly limiting our
capacity for diurnal destabilization. Attm...all thunder remains
south of Michigan within better instability...lift and moisture
values.

After a lull in the shower action for the balance of the afternoon
and early evening...deep moisture and better forcing will lift back
into Michigan later this evening...overnight and into Thursday as
the surface low lifts into Eastern Lake Erie. Still appears that
eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest POPs during this
time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside.
Virtually no instability will be available anywhere close to our CWA
tomorrow...so no chance of thunder.

Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. Temps will not
go very far on Thursday across the eastern two-thirds of Northern
Lower Michigan...as temps hold mainly in the mid to upper 50s all
day. Warmest temps will actually be realized across Eastern Upper
and far NW Lower Michigan Thursday afternoon...with highs warming
into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Turning partly cloudy and warmer...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern
Michigan (at least eventually). However, there could still be a few
lingering showers across eastern zones through at least Thursday
night. Will continue with the dry forecast per the blend for Friday
but still would not be surprised if we see a few popup showers
developing. Otherwise, improving conditions with warming
temperatures expected through the period. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 Friday and the upper 60s to middle 70s Saturday. Lows in
the middle 40s to lower 50s for Thursday and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Resolving the precip chances for Sunday/Monday continues to be an
issue. Starting to see a bit of convergence in the handling of the
H5 low over Ontario and the Great Lakes, which should bring some
increasing confidence with the rain chances in the coming days. At
this point, I`m favoring the European solution which is holding off
the bulk of the rain until later Monday evening. Still some guidance
bringing rain Sunday, and blended PoPs continue to reflect that, but
expect that focus will narrow to more of a one day period over the
next few cycles. Temperatures will begin above normal for the
weekend, gradually cooling to slightly below normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Low pressure slowly pivoting south of our area will continue to
send another round of deeper moisture and attendant MVFR/IFR
producing cigs back west across the taf sites early this morning,
likely lasting much of the day. Showers are also expected,
especially at KAPN through this morning. May see some more patchy
fog/br, but not expecting it to be as widespread as last night.
Light east winds become a bit gusty today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru Thursday
night across most of our nearshore area. Conditions may approach
criteria briefly on Thursday for portions of our Lake Huron
nearshore area...but will hold off on issuance of a SCA for this
area for now. Scattered showers will become more numerous later this
evening...overnight and Thursday as low pressure and deep moisture
lift into the Southern Great Lakes region...with the best chance of
precip along our Lake Huron nearshore areas.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR



853
ACUS11 KWNS 250233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250232
SCZ000-GAZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250232Z - 250330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible
over the next few hours, with an attendant threat for gusty winds.
This threat should remain small in space and time, such that watch
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A few strong to briefly severe storms remain possible
late this evening. As a mid/upper trough continues to approach the
Southeast this evening, strong forcing for ascent aloft is promoting
convective re-development with the residual surface-based buoyancy
remaining. The 00Z TLH sounding sampled around 650 J/kg of MLCAPE,
and areas farther north likely are characterized by about 300-600
J/kg. Nonetheless, regional observed soundings and KVAX VWP data
indicate vigorous southwesterly flow within the convective layer
(upwards of around 50 kt at 850mb). Therefore, stronger cells that
develop near the surface front may be capable of gusty winds. This
threat will be enhanced by any small bowing segments, organized by a
relatively uni-directional shear profile. However, due to a lack of
greater buoyancy (as well as an increase in convective inhibition
with eastward extent), the overall severe threat should remain low,
likely precluding new watch issuance.

..Picca/Weiss.. 05/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30988377 33438255 33548198 33518154 33198138 32478152
31648192 30888240 30808338 30848367 30988377



No Current Product

No Current Product

No Current Product