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000
FLUS43 KAPX 201446
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1046 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-211200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
1046 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible at various times Friday
evening through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

JZ


171
ACUS01 KWNS 201627
SWODY1
SPC AC 201626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley region to
the Northeast, and across parts of the northern High Plains.

...Portions of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley region to the
Northeast...
The remnants of a persistent convective cluster are crossing central
Indiana around mid-day, and have shown some signs of
intensification. Further development of this activity could occur as
it spreads eastward/southeastward into Ohio and vicinity, amid a
moderately unstable air mass with 25-40 kt of effective shear. A
separate cluster of convection will likely spread across parts of
southern NY, northern PA, and vicinity amid stronger deep shear and
in a regime of warm/moist advection. Additional convective
development will be likely along a cold front trailing southwestward
into Ohio, with activity subsequently spreading eastward with time.
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts, and perhaps marginally severe
hail, may accompany all of the aforementioned activity. However, the
convective evolution is overall uncertain, as ascent is primarily
being driven by convectively-influenced mass fields at the meso-beta
scale.

To the west of the Indiana/Ohio area of convection across parts of
the Midwest, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
is anticipated along a trailing outflow boundary and surface
front -- enhanced at the intersection of these boundaries (IA
vicinity). Strong buoyancy may support isolated severe hail/wind,
though weak deep shear will tend to limit convective organization.

Also, some isolated severe hail/wind risk may affect parts of New
England -- aided by long mid/high-level hodographs, though weak
buoyancy will mitigate the overall severe risk.

...Portions of the northern High Plains...
Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon along
a sharpening dryline in eastern MT vicinity with activity spreading
into portions of the Dakotas. This will occur as a mid-level speed
maximum crests an antecedent ridge aloft, aiding in its
de-amplification. Lee cyclogenesis will contribute to a vertically
veering wind profile east of the dryline, with 40-50 kt of effective
shear supporting supercell structures. Severe hail/wind may occur,
and -- though uncertain at this time -- some significant severe hail
risk could evolve. While convective cloud bases will tend to be
quite high, a tornado cannot be ruled out given sufficiently curved
low-level hodographs -- particularly in proximity to a developing
warm front from northeast MT into northwest and west-central ND.
Convection may continue into the overnight hours with some hail risk
as it moves across parts of the Dakotas and vicinity, though the
overall severe risk will be lessening.

..Cohen/Coniglio.. 07/20/2017

$$



000
ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains and
central Plains east across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. A
few severe storms will be possible over the Central Plains are.

...Synopsis...

Synoptic pattern will change little Friday with upper ridge
remaining firmly in place over the central and southern plains and
belt of moderate mid-upper flow across the northern tier of states.
A series of low-amplitude impulses will move through the belt of
stronger flow from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and
Upper Midwest. A more significant shortwave trough will move through
the southern Canadian Prairies near the international border and
affect ND Friday night.

At the surface a quasi-stationary or warm front should extend from
weak surface low over SD southeastward through the Upper Midwest and
into the Ohio Valley. Western portion of this boundary could make
some northward progress into the upper MS Valley during the period.
A cold front will accompany the shortwave trough into the Dakotas
Friday night. A lee trough will extend from the surface low in SD
southwestward into NE and CO.

...Northern Plains through the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley...

A few areas of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
within zone of warm advection and isentropic ascent north of the
warm front from parts of the Dakotas into the upper MS and OH Valley
regions. This activity will be elevated above a stable surface
layer, but could pose at least a marginal risk for hail as it shifts
eastward. The moist warm sector in vicinity of the
warm/quasistationary front will destabilize during the day with
moderate to strong instability possible during the afternoon. A
capping inversion associated with eastern extension of the elevated
mixed layer may limit more robust initiation over western portion of
region until mid-late afternoon when additional storms may develop
over eastern SD near triple point supported by a destabilizing
boundary layer and a progressive shortwave trough. Activity should
expand eastward into southern MN along nose of southwesterly low
level jet, possibly consolidating into a forward propagating MCS
that will continue southeastward along instability gradient through
the upper Midwest region. Should this scenario transpire, a corridor
of higher concentration of damaging wind would be likely. Given
lingering uncertainty in how the mesoscale will evolve, will
maintain 15% category at this time, but a enhanced might be
introduced in later outlooks.

Otherwise, additional storms may develop farther east along boundary
over the OH valley region. Later in the period, any MCS that
develops upstream could eventually affect the Ohio Valley and Friday
Night.

...Northern Minnesota and North Dakota...

Additional storms may develop over ND most overnight in association
with approaching cold front and shortwave trough. This activity will
spread east through a portion of ND and possibly northern MN posing
a risk for damaging wind.

...Central Plains...

High-based multicell storms may develop over the higher terrain of
CO and within the deeply mixed regime over the central high plains
in vicinity of lee trough posing a risk for downburst winds during
the afternoon.

...Southern Appalachians through Middle Atlantic region...

Storms will likely form over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians as well as in association with a lee trough across
central VA within a moderately unstable atmosphere. This region will
remain south of the stronger winds aloft with multicells the likely
storm mode. The stronger storms may produce a few downburst winds
from late afternoon through early evening.

..Dial.. 07/20/2017

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 191025
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E CHEBOYGAN 45.65N 84.41W
07/19/2017 M1.32 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI BROADCAST MEDIA

THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 12
HOURS.


&&

$$

SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 201700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Quasi-stationary front continues to extend from the Central Plains
thru Iowa and into far Southern Lower Michigan late this morning.
Remnants of overnight MCS continue to diminish in intensity as it
drops SE thru the Southern Great Lakes region. Smaller/weaker area
of convection that pushed thru our CWA overnight has exited
eastward thru Lake Huron and into SE Ontario. High pressure has
begun to build into the Northern Lakes...with no precip remaining
across Minnesota...Wisconsin and Northern Michigan. Hard to see
what driving mechanism is left to spark any additional convection
across our CWA with building subsidence and drying taking place as
we head thru the balance of the day. Lingering low clouds across
Northern Lower Michigan should diminish from NW to SE thru the
afternoon...with skies becoming mostly sunny by mid afternoon
across our entire area. Expect another warm day for the Northwoods
with increasing sunshine. High temps will range from the upper 70s
in Eastern Upper Michigan and the Straits area to the low to mid
80s across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Some re-jiggering of morning precip trends. Activity that was
upstream continues to slide ese, and appears increasingly likely
to completely miss us. Meanwhile, deep convection has fired in ne
lower MI, near and w of APN, as a small bubble of instability has
advected north between MCSs. This one axis of better instability
should exit by 9-10am.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Sct showers and maybe a t-storm southern sections this
morning...

High impact weather potential...stray, non-svr storms possible
this morning south of M-72.

Warm front extends along the MN/Iowa border to central WI and
southern lower MI. Initial svr MCS is falling apart in northern
Indiana. But deep convection continues to fire to our west in
parts of WI/MN, where extremely moist/unstable air south of front
(dew points in the 70s) is being advected toward and across it.
This will pose a risk for showers/storms, mainly in northern lower
MI, until a cold front now reaching western Superior crosses the
region during the day.

Today...all sorts of of warm/moist/unstable air just to our south,
but its running out of time and ways to come north. Too much
precip along the front to allow for a substantial northward push.
There`s the risk of a stray shower or two just about anywhere
early this morning (some showers are scraping by Chippewa Co to
the north, a few small cells are popping near Beaver Isl, etc
etc etc). Best precip threat will be in the south, on the
northern fringe of MCSs moving e to ese in the central/southern
lakes. There are storms on our latitude back toward the Twin
Cities, and it`s not completely out of the question for a t-storm
to make it here, especially between sunrise and noon. But that`s
looking less and less likely.

Precip threat should wrap up by 1 pm as cooler/drier air moves in.
Decreasing clouds for the rest of the day. With less precip and
somewhat less clouds than earlier forecast, have bumped up temps a
bit. Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, cooler
along some beaches.

Tonight...high pressure will build ese from MN into northern MI,
keeping our departed frontal zone suppressed to our south. The
resumption of return flow in western sections of the corn belt
will resulting in increasing convection late in northern
Iowa/southern MN/sw WI. It will be a while longer before this
poses a substantial threat to us. Instead, we see mainly clear
skies. Think we see enough mixing this afternoon/early evening to
keep fog from being a major concern, but the usual fog-prone
valley locales will likely see some.

Min temps lower 50s to around 60f.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances...

High Impact Weather Potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms late
Friday and Saturday.

Pattern Forecast: Well-advertised progressive zonal flow across the
northern states into southern Canada will feature little change
through Sunday. Several mid level perturbations rotating through the
midsection of the country will be the main driver to our local
weather at various points later Friday through Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Temporal and spatial
resolution of any precipitation chances/MCS potential late
Friday through Saturday.

Details: Little in the way of concern to start the short term
forecast period as high pressure sits atop the Great Lakes Friday
morning. Another day with high temperatures a few degrees above
normal looks likely...ranging from near 80 across eastern Upper to
the low-mid 80s elsewhere.

The next threat for potential precip across a portion of northern
Michigan arrives as early as Friday night. Current trends (much like
the MCS that developed across MN/WI on Wednesday) suggest an MCS
developing across southern MN/WI Friday afternoon before quickly
sliding east-southeastward toward southern Lake Michigan. However,
there remain several pieces of guidance that attempt to bring that
feature into northern/central Michigan. Thus, uncertainty in the
actual development and convective trends leads to another lower than
desired confidence forecast. It`s likely that this feature will
track along the axis of deeper moisture and theta-e/instability
gradient, which is currently progged to be south of the forecast
area, so gut feeling is once again that the worst passes well to our
south. Definitely warrants monitoring in future outlooks as there
remains time for subtleties in the guidance to change over the next
48 hours.

Additional showers and thunderstorms remain possible across all of
northern Michigan later Saturday into Saturday evening as a much
more defined wave drops out of southern Ontario into the northern
Great Lakes, aiding to focus precip further north across the U.P.
into northern Lower. With MLCAPE values during this period progged
to range from 500-1,000 J/kg and formidable winds aloft expected to
continue, a conditional severe weather threat can`t be ruled out.
Will continue to go somewhat conservative with high temps Saturday,
but it wouldn`t take a whole lot of afternoon sun to surpass the
upper 70s-low 80s currently depicted across a bulk of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

High impact weather potential: Additional scattered thunderstorms
possible Saturday night and Sunday.

Focus in the extended revolves around the Sunday night through
Monday timeframe. Well-defined mid level wave mentioned above
continues its east-southeastward progression across the Great Lakes
Sunday through Sunday night. Partly sunny skies, occasional showers
and a rumble of thunder will continue to be the rule to wrap up the
weekend, although there are certainly hints that plenty of dry time
will be mixed in as well. Canadian high pressure gradually ushers in
cooler/drier air Monday through Tuesday evident by high temperatures
expected to fall back below normal by a couple of degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Overall conditions will remain VFR through Friday afternoon...
although some patchy fog development late tonight/early Friday
morning will drop conditions to MVFR/IFR in some spots...
especially around MBL. W/NW AOB 10 kts this afternoon will become
light/variable tonight as high pressure continues to settle into
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A cool front will go thru early today, with ongoing light
southerly breezes becoming w to nw later today. Light west breezes
Friday. Onshore lake breezes each afternoon. Winds/waves far below
advisory levels.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ


000
ACUS11 KWNS 201745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201744
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Areas affected...Portions of GA...eastern AL...north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201744Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms this afternoon will have the potential to
produce strong wind gusts. A few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot
be ruled out, though Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a moderately to
strongly buoyant and weakly capped air mass will spread generally
southward and southwestward today, along the western fringes of a
mid-level cold pool/trough centered off the Southeast Coast. This
activity will develop along a weak baroclinic zone shifting
southward from the TN Valley, sea-breeze boundaries, and amid
diurnally deepening boundary-layer circulations. While mid-level
flow is modest in strength, the presence of 10-20 kt of northerlies
in the 2-4-km layer per area VAD wind profiles suggests that a few
loosely organized multicell clusters could evolve. Furthermore, with
steepening low-level lapse rates owing to widespread insolation,
DCAPE may approach 1500 J/kg in some locations -- suggesting
enhanced downward convective mass fluxes. Strong wind gusts may
accompany this activity, and a few isolated damaging wind gusts may
occur. Poor mid-level lapse rates, the lack of stronger deep shear,
and weak deep ascent will all limit the severe risk.

..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31718609 32688593 33268485 33168343 32298157 30708141
29358154 28818211 29108285 29698423 29728536 31718609


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