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842
FLUS43 KAPX 190918
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
418 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-200930-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
418 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Many roads developed a thin film of snow and ice while lake
effect snow has continued to fall in the snowbelts. General light
accumulations are expected, but hazardous driving conditions will
persist. Additional light accumulations will continue in eastern
upper tonight. Please see the winter weather advisory for further
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord

Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 190453
SWODY1
SPC AC 190452

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Sunday over the continental United
States.

...Discussion...

In the wake of a strong surface cold front, a generally cool, dry,
and stable airmass will continue to filter southward across the
eastern United States on Sunday. Although surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s along and ahead of the front across the Florida
Peninsula, weak convergence along the front and warm temperatures
aloft should preclude thunderstorm development.

Elsewhere, shallow convection associated with lake-effect
precipitation may have the potential for a couple of lightning
strikes, but confidence and coverage is too low to justify
delineation. Additionally, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough moves
across the Pacific Northwest, sufficient cooling aloft may result in
enough mid-level instability to produce a lightning strike or two
along and near the immediate coast.

..Marsh.. 11/19/2017

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 190550
SWODY2
SPC AC 190549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula Monday night, but no severe weather is expected.

...South Florida...

A front is forecast to stall over the southern FL Peninsula with the
approach of a low-amplitude southern-stream upper trough that will
move through the Gulf Monday night. Richer low-level moisture with
upper 60s F dewpoints in vicinity of the front, moistening
thermodynamic profiles, and presence of weak warm advection may
contribute to weak, but sufficient, destabilization for a few
showers and thunderstorms over south FL, primarily Monday night.

..Dial.. 11/19/2017

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 190323
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1023 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
11/18/2017 M43 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GTLM4, 6 NE NORTHPORT.


&&

$$

JZ



000
FXUS63 KAPX 190900
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
400 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake effect snow. Some
blowing and drifting and and pretty slick roads where temperatures
have sunk below freezing.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Large scale upper troughing is overhead early this morning, with low
pressure and a cold front settled in the eastern conus. A shortwave
seen on satellite is dropping SE into western Lake Superior, working
with fairly little moisture, per Canadian radars which show little
if any synoptic precipitation. That said, the puny NW flow lake
effect snow bands seen over the last several hours have been
increasing in intensity over Lake Superior during the last hour or
so. There was also some increase seen over Lake Michigan, as there
is a connection with Lake Superior in fairly unidirectional low
level winds. On a more gloomy note, widespread stratus stratus was
seen back through much of Wisconsin, but clearing was pushing
through the western part of the state.

As the shortwave presses through the region this morning, gotta
expect the uptick in snowfall intensity to persist. Hi-res guidance
suggesting a dominant band setting up within max convergence from
far western Mackinac county through NW lower, which is likely to
spread snow as far south as Saginaw Bay for a time this morning.
Lake effect bands may prove to be somewhat transient, as 1000-850mb
flow will be backing through the day and night. Nevertheless, am
expecting for a general 1-2 inches this morning with locally higher
amounts, certainly if the dominant band evolves. Heading into the
afternoon, gotta expect these bands to become diurnally disrupted to
some degree, with less than an inch of additional accumulations in
nrn lower, and another inch or so through Chippewa county in eastern
upper as the flow will become more WNW. No stopping the snow into
tonight as winds become more west, but the drier air/clearing from
western Wisconsin will be putting a big dent in the action over
mainly nrn lower. All-in-all, can see a general 1-4 inches in the
favored snowbelts through tonight and gusty winds resulting in some
blowing and drifting. A rather low end snowfall, but roads are slick
already, so will issue a winter weather advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Temperature roller coaster to continue through midweek...

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow accumulations with lake
convection Tuesday night.

Pattern Forecast: Full-latitude short wave trough swinging into the
eastern third of North America early this morning...with flat but
expanding ridging into the western U.S. Secondary short wave trough
dropping quickly southeast into Minnesota. Split short wave trough
is over the eastern Pacific...northern branch trough north of 40N
while a substantial (for that latitude) southern branch upper low
spins north of Hawaii (4-5 standard deviations below the mean)...
with additional short wave energy moving east of the dateline.
At the surface...986mb low was tracking northeast across the lower
Great Lakes...with colder air getting pulled across the upper Lakes
in decently strong cyclonic flow.

Strong height rises will spread across the Great Lakes Monday along
with warmer southwesterly low level flow. Energy associated with
split trough in the eastern Pacific will dig southeast out of the
Prairie provinces Tuesday...with some impressive height falls across
Michigan (potentially on the order of 120m/12h). An associated cold
front will come along with it...probably in the Tuesday morning time
frame...bringing a comparable or maybe even a bit colder air mass
than the one currently spreading into the region this morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Quiet day expected Monday with flat
ridging across the region...with changes coming Tuesday morning with
cold frontal passage across Michigan. Moisture along the front
itself looks to be pretty sparse...with only some hints of a pre-
frontal rain band sweeping across the forecast area. Surge of cold
air then follows Tuesday afternoon/night which will allow
temperatures to drop and northwest flow lake bands off Lakes
Superior/Michigan to ramp up. Bands could be of decent intensity
with inversion height jumping to or above 750mb during the
afternoon/evening. So a pretty good bet for more accumulating snows
across much of eastern Upper and interior northern Lower Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Big pre-holiday travel day (Wednesday) should continue to see
lingering snow showers coming in off Lake Superior and Lake
Michigan...though with onset of warm advection and backing low level
winds expect intensity to fall off with time. Some mixed
signals/forecast spread begins creeping into the picture for
Thanksgiving Day itself...forecast will lean toward the idea of a
cold frontal passage which may bring some light precip on Thursday
or some lake effect Thursday night...with a stronger signal for
precipitation with the passage of low pressure Friday and perhaps
more cold air for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Low pressure is moving east across upstate NY. Lake effect
showers (mixed rain/snow, though turning to all snow with time)
have developed into northern lower MI. These will become more
extensive overnight into Sunday morning, before starting to
wane. Best snowfall amounts will occur east of TVC. Do expect
occasional vsby restrictions, especially at TVC, perhaps into IFR
territory at times late tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, MVFR to
VFR cigs will prevail.

NNW winds will be gusty tonight and Sunday, while gradually
backing to the WNW on Sunday. Winds lighten up Sunday evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Lower end gale force gusts continue across portions of the Great
Lakes, and will persist into the morning hours. No changes to the
current gale warnings and advisories. Winds will gradually weaken
and back more west tonight but remain gusty in solid overlake
instability. Winds turn S/SW Monday and ramp back up heading into
Monday night, out ahead of the next low pressure that will be
crossing Ontario. Solid advisories expected again, with a good
chance for gales over Lake Michigan. Lake effect rain and snow
showers will wane tonight, but kick back in again Tuesday behind the
next cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ016-
017-019>022-026>028-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ349.
GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341.
GALE WARNING until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD


627
ACUS11 KWNS 182324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182324
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...

Valid 182324Z - 190130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east within and near Watch 517
this evening, with an attendant threat of a few damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado. The line should gradually weaken with eastward
extent this evening, such that downstream watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A nearly continuous line of thunderstorms is advancing
across Tennessee and northern Alabama early this evening. Over the
last hour, there was a localized uptick in tornado potential
south/east of the Nashville area, with three distinct tornadic
debris signatures in Rutherford, Wilson, and Trousdale counties.
While cells will continue to outpace remaining low-level buoyancy,
impressive low-level shear may still yield a quick tornado across
Middle Tennessee over the next hour. Otherwise, an isolated damaging
wind threat will likely persist through the 01Z expiration time of
Watch 517.

Farther south, convection has at times consolidated into a few
stronger segments over northern Alabama. Local observations have yet
to indicate severe wind gusts, but considering the strength of
low-level flow and presence of weak mixed-layer CAPE, isolated
damage will remain possible for the next couple hours, before
surface-based buoyancy is shunted farther south.

..Picca.. 11/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34048819 36588602 36588440 36278421 34978545 34268621
33988719 33918800 34048819



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