000
ACUS01 KWNS 220524
SWODY1
SPC AC 220523

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
are possible across parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
the Tidewater region of Virginia this afternoon into the early
evening.

...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic...
A deep upper trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS is
expected to progress slowly eastward today. While the primary
occluding cyclone is expected to move from the Upper Great Lakes
into Ontario, a secondary frontal wave is expected to move from
Upstate SC this morning into the mid Atlantic this evening and
southern New England overnight. As this occurs, relatively rich
low-level moisture is expected to stream northward over portions of
the central/eastern Carolinas into the Tidewater region in advance
of a eastward-moving cold front.

While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy across
the region, at least modest heating of an increasingly moist
environment may allow MLCAPE to rise into 500-1000 J/kg range from
southern VA into the eastern Carolinas, along and south of the track
of the aforementioned frontal wave. Intensification of ongoing
morning convection and/or renewed development during the afternoon
will result in some damaging wind potential, given relatively strong
low/midlevel flow. Locally enhanced low-level shear near the track
of the surface wave will support the potential for a tornado or two
as well.

...MT into the western Dakotas...
A vigorous shortwave trough over British Columbia this morning is
forecast move southeastward through the period. This feature will
begin approaching MT by late afternoon, moving into portions of the
northern Plains tonight. Despite cool temperatures and limited
low-level moisture, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates may
allow very weak surface-based buoyancy to develop over
central/eastern MT late this afternoon, in advance of the shortwave.
Strong unidirectional west-northwesterly flow will favor some
potential for strong wind gusts with any convection that can
develop. At this time, concerns regarding magnitude of available
buoyancy preclude the introduction of any severe wind probabilities.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 10/22/2019

$$

000
ACUS02 KWNS 220450
SWODY2
SPC AC 220450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, but slowly filling, cyclone is
forecast to continue to slowly migrate across northern Ontario into
Hudson Bay during this period.  As a modest secondary surface low
migrates from New England coastal areas through the St. Lawrence
Valley, before weakening, the trailing cold front appears likely to
progress east of the much of the Atlantic Seaboard, with the
exception of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, where it
probably will stall and weaken beneath mid-level subtropical
ridging.

To the west, amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude
eastern Pacific may take on more of a positive tilt, building
east-northeastward into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.
As this occurs, a downstream short wave trough, initially digging
across the northern U.S. Rockies, may gradually split.  While one
perturbation turns more sharply southward toward the southern
Rockies/High Plains, the other may pivot through the mid Missouri
Valley.  However, spread among the models, and within their
respective ensemble output, increases through the period concerning
these developments.

It does appear that cold surface ridging will build across the
northern Rockies and nose eastward and southward across much of the
northern and central Plains.  There may be a weak to modest
southerly return flow of moisture into the vicinity of a
strengthening frontal zone on the leading edge of the colder air,
across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday night.  As this
advects into a corridor of strengthening lift driven by lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, this may be accompanied by sufficient
destabilization to support scattered weak thunderstorm activity
across parts of central into northeast Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Kerr.. 10/22/2019

$$

000
NWUS53 KAPX 220546
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 46 ESE OSCODA           44.28N 82.42W
10/22/2019  M43 MPH          LHZ363             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45008 27 NE PORT HOPE.


&&

$$

FEF

000
FXUS63 KAPX 220349
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1149 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Dry slot making inroads into nw lower MI and even western Mack Co.
However, we are seeing a few skinny bands of showers fire beneath
the dry slot, in particular along the occluded front moving into
western lower MI. There had been a few thunderstorms early this
evening over northern WI, and more recently over northern IN.
Probably is still a window along the occluded front for a stray
t-storm or two here, even though the coldest temps aloft will
pass to our nw.

Precip coverage should enter a more substantial lull behind the
occluded front, where partial clearing is already working into
parts of nw lower. Wraparound comma-head showers could move back
into far western sections toward dawn.

Surface winds are veering s to ssw behind the occluded front. As
that happens (especially on Tuesday when winds strengthen again
and veer further), the lakeshore flood threat will shift from
mainly Lk Huron to mainly Lk MI. Current disposition of lakeshore
flood headlines already plays up that transition.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...Windy and showery...

High Impact Weather Potential: Very gusty winds will lead to
lakeshore flooding issues tonight and through Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Impressive 998 MB low pressure system
is over Iowa/southern Minnesota this afternoon. Occluding boundary
arcs into Illinois then continues south/southwestward into eastern
Texas as a cold front. Widespread batch of rainfall continues to
pivot northward around the low...across Michigan into the Upper
Midwest...driven by strong warm advection and system dynamics.
First batch of showers is quickly lifting up through the forecast
area this afternoon, followed by a brief break, while additional
showers are filling up upstream across Lake Michigan into SE
Wisconsin. Pronounced dry slot is punching up through SW
Wisconsin and will be arriving here later this evening.

Tonight: Still no major changes to the going forecast. Deep low
pressure will migrate up into far western Lake Superior driving
the occluding boundary up through the region by late evening/early
overnight. Several more rounds of showers will pivot up through
the forecast area through the evening hours before well
pronounced dry slot punches across and brings a temporary end to
precip. Wrap around showers begin to press back into western areas
toward Tuesday morning. Although lightning activity has diminished
upstream in the last few hours, some thunder remains a possibility
as a narrow modest instability ribbon slides through along the
edge of the dry slot.

Biggest impacts continue with marine issues, specifically
lakeshore flooding. Winds will ultimately veer southwesterly later
tonight into Tuesday focusing lakeshore flooding issues over to
the Lake Michigan side. But, we have received reports of dock
damage in Northport...on the eastern side of Leelanau county
coming off Grand Traverse Bay. So, will put them into an advisory
starting now and running through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...Windy, rainy & cooler through midweek...

High Impact Weather Potential: Lakeshore flooding/beach erosion
concerns continue Tuesday-Wednesday, mainly on Lake Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Attention revolves around vertically
stacked low pressure expected to be situated over northern Wisconsin
at the start of the period with broad cyclonic flow evident across
the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This system will continue its
northward progression into Ontario through Wednesday. While frequent
showers are expected, along with a return to chillier conditions,
continued gusty winds will pose the greatest potential impact in
terms of more lakeshore flooding and beach erosion concerns.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Continued wind concerns,
falling temperatures and renewed lake-aided showers Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Cold air advection will become the rule Tuesday through Wednesday
across northern Michigan as low pressure continues its northward
progression into Ontario through this time frame. As a result,
cooler air is expected to be filtering into the region (H8 temps
falling to -2 to -3 C by Tuesday evening/overnight) leading to
increased lake induced instability, which combined with pockets of
deeper moisture rotating through the back side of the system should
be plenty of support to produce additional showers Tuesday morning
through much of the remainder of the day into Tuesday night and even
at times right on through Wednesday morning - most numerous/steady
downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior in west-southwest flow lake
belts. Continued showers downwind of the lakes early Wednesday
should gradually give way to drier conditions as weak warm air
advection slowly takes over, most noticeably Wednesday afternoon as
mid-level heights also begin to rise in conjunction with weak mid-
level ridging working its way overhead.

Lakeshore flooding/beach erosion concerns: Winds veer southerly
tonight while perhaps relaxing just a bit before turning more
southwesterly Tuesday morning through Wednesday, once again picking
up speed with gale force gusts anticipated on much of Lake Michigan.
Lakeshore flooding/beach issues transition to the Lake Michigan side
during this time. Winds finally begin to notably relax late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, likely bringing an end
to the lakeshore/beach issues.

High temperatures Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s area-
wide, although with cloudy/rainy/windy conditions, will likely feel
several degrees cooler than that. Temps fall a few more degrees for
Wednesday with highs ranging from mid 40s inland to near 50 at the
coasts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip chances late Wednesday into
Thursday

A positive tilt upper-level trough over the central CONUS will
progress east as a strong cyclone continues to move NE away from
Hudson Bay. Surface high pressure builds mainly to our south and
west heading into the weekend. High temps across northern Michigan
are expected to stay in the low to mid-40s before warming into the
low-50s by Sunday. Chilly overnight lows are also in store Thursday
and Friday nights, potentially dropping into the upper-20s for some
during that time. The chance for showers exists from the start of
the period mainly into Thursday afternoon. While low temps will be
near freezing Thursday morning, the chance for winter/mixed precip
remains uncertain. Another system could move to our north through
Ontario late in the period, which could bring the next main chance
for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Strong low pressure is moving slowly nne along the WI/MN border.
It will continue slowly ne toward and across Superior thru late
Tuesday, then accelerate northward and weaken. Back edge of
widespread showers is exiting APN, though a trailing line of
showers along an occluded front will bring a brief period of
heavier rain to APN for a few hours. Showers will start to return
to nw lower MI toward dawn, leading to a gloomy, cool, and windy
Tuesday. After a period of VFR cigs tonight, MVFR cigs will
gradually return on Tuesday.

Gusty s to sw winds, very gusty on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Gale force wind gusts will continue to impact the lakes through
Tuesday before winds/waves begin to subside Tuesday night into
Wednesday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ024-030-
     036-088-096-097.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020-098.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ025-031.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ018-042.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     MIZ095.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for MIZ016.
LH...GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ346>349.
     GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345.
LM...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ346.
     GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA

099
ACUS11 KWNS 220101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220100
FLZ000-GAZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220100Z - 220300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as a convective
line moves through the central FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A convective line just off the far western FL Panhandle
continues to move eastward/east-northeastward at about 30 kt.
Portion of the line just south of VPS has shown some embedded
rotation near a surging line segment. Similar LEWP signatures are
possible as the line encounters slightly stronger vertical shear.
Anticipated motion of the line will likely result in movement into
more onshore area of the central FL Panhandle.

Despite ample low-level moisture, the downstream air mass across the
central and eastern FL Panhandle is only modestly unstable, with
moist profiles and poor lapse rates limiting buoyancy. Low-level
flow is also quite weak. Even so, a few damaging wind gusts are
possible with any briefly organized line segments. Limited severe
potential is expected to preclude watch issuance, but convective
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 10/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30878650 30998506 30488459 29678479 29708548 30028620
            30218657 30878650