054
ACUS01 KWNS 281950
SWODY1
SPC AC 281948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
South-Central States and the Northwest through tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/28/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

...South-Central States...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will remain possible within the warm
conveyor region along the immediate Gulf Coast. A narrow corridor of
surface-based instability will develop from central to east TX to
the southeast of a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the Red
River. With only low to mid 50s surface dew points, MLCAPE should
remain meager, at or below 500 J/kg. Given the shallowness of the
buoyancy and stronger speed shear confined to the mid to upper
levels, potential for severe appears limited. Still, small hail will
be possible during the late afternoon/early evening in east TX. Some
of this activity may linger as weak elevated convection towards the
Lower MS Valley through tonight.

...Northwest...
A shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest coast
into the Great Basin. Isolated lightning flashes will remain
possible ahead of the trough, centered on the Treasure Valley of
OR/ID during the late afternoon/early evening.

$$

000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible from the lower Mississippi
Valley through southern Georgia and a portion of Florida Wednesday.
Isolated thunderstorms are also expected over a portion of Arizona
and New Mexico. The probability of severe remains very low.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern will remain unfavorable for organized convection
capable of producing severe weather during the day2 period. Even so,
some thunderstorm potential will be noted across lower latitudes of
the US, namely across the eastern Gulf States, and over AZ/NM
region.

One significant short-wave trough, currently located over
southwestern OK/northwest TX at 17z, will deamplify and eject east
across the Gulf States Wednesday. This feature will encourage the
primary surface front to sag south, off the Gulf Coast where any
appreciable instability is expected to remain through the period.
However, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough for
adequate buoyancy supportive of deep convection ahead of the short
wave. For these reasons, will maintain at least 10% probability for
lightning with convection across portions of the Gulf States.

Upstream, strong mid-level jet will dig southeast into the lower CO
River Valley by 29/18z. Strongly difluent high-level flow, steep
lapse rates, and ascent within exit region of this feature, suggest
scattered convection will be noted. Forecast soundings suggest
lightning is possible with the strongest convection ahead of the
trough.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Darrow.. 01/28/2020

$$

000
NWUS53 KAPX 241412
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
912 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N ENGADINE            46.13N 85.57W
01/24/2020  M3.7 INCH        MACKINAC           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ENGM4 ENGADINE MDOT.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             4 WNW WELLSTON          44.23N 86.04W
01/24/2020  M3.0 INCH        MANISTEE           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-MN-6 WELLSTON 3.9 WNW.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KAPX 282024
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

...Nuisance light lake effect precipitation continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Some minor icing in spots due
to freezing drizzle.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern stream short-wave
trough/vorticity center continues to slide down into the central
lakes region this afternoon, downstream from low amplitude short-
wave ridging working into the western Great Lakes. Typical lake
aggregate surface troughing remains fixed from the U.P. down
through northern Lake Huron with light low level NW flow across
most of the area. Just enough over water instability continues to
touch off some very light lake induced precipitation, largely
across NW Lower Michigan, which has and continues to be a mix of
light snow showers and light freezing drizzle. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure/subsidence and drier air is across western
Ontario and will muscle their way into northern Michigan as we go
through tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Nuisance light lake induced snow
showers and freezing drizzle through tonight.

Short-wave trough will continue to slowly slide southeastward out
of the region tonight, replaced with short-wave ridging/surface
high pressure and some drier air building into the northern lakes.
Along with eventual veering low level flow, current coverage of
light lake induced precip should dwindle, although I suspect
areas from Grand Traverse Bay south to Manistee as well as parts
of NE Lower Michigan will probably continue to see some nuisance
light snow showers/freezing drizzle. Areas further north into
eastern Upper Michigan could see some clearing skies take shape
with developing NE downsloping flow out of Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

...Mostly quiet weather heading into the weekend...

Pattern synopsis:

Upper-level troughing will continue to move across the southeastern
US through Wednesday before elongated ridging takes its place. A
more amplified trough will dig from the Rocky Mountain west into
Texas/Mexico through mid-week as well. At the surface, a cyclone
associated with the southeastern US troughing will scrape along the
Gulf coast into Florida Wednesday night before exiting into the
Atlantic. Surface high pressure centered over James Bay will
continue to build down into the CONUS, encompassing the Great Lakes
through the short term.

Forecast/Details:

Surface high pressure is expected to mute precip on Wednesday and
Thursday. Some near-surface moisture exists that could potentially
support light snow/freezing drizzle, but lack of appreciable forcing
in the low and mid-levels brings confidence against precipitation on
both days. Weak winds are expected through the period as well. High
temperatures will reach near 30 across northern lower while eastern
upper will likely see mid 20s. Upper 20s highs are expected on
Thursday. Chilly lows are expected overnight both days, dipping down
into the teens and possibly single digits for some across the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...Monitoring early week.

Surface high pressure will begin to move out of the eastern CONUS
heading into the weekend. The next chance for precip appears to be
on Friday with the arrival of a potential shortwave the could bring
support aloft. Precip chances could continue through the weekend
with a possible system passing to our north near Hudson Bay.
Guidance hints towards an organized system developing and
potentially impacting the Great Lakes early next week, but there is
still plenty of time between now and then and details will become
more clear as next week approaches. High temperatures look to warm
some heading through the weekend, possibly reaching into the mid 30s
for many on Saturday and Sunday. Warmer than normal temperatures
could continue into early next week before the overall pattern
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Lots of MVFR cloud cover remains draped across northern Michigan
this afternoon along with light nuisance lake induced snow
showers/light freezing drizzle. Despite periodic freezing drizzle,
I anticipate on minor, if any, impact to aviation.

Lake induced precipitation will tend to diminish heading into
tonight as surface high pressure builds into the region and light
low level flow veers easterly, eventually southeasterly on
Wednesday. Cloud cover may also thin out a bit, particularly well
downwind of the lakes. But anticipate overall MVFR conditions to
persist through the taf period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Light winds/waves will continue on the lakes through the balance
of the week. Some light/nuisance lake effect precipitation will be
found on the lakes tonight into Wednesday. Otherwise, no high
impact weather is anticipated.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA

000
ACUS11 KWNS 281315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281314
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-281815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Areas affected...northwest OK into portions of southwest KS

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 281314Z - 281815Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snow are possible through this
morning from northwest OK into parts of southwest KS.

DISCUSSION...Areas of moderate to heavy snow continue to develop
across southwest KS and northwest OK this morning. This activity is
mainly being driven by strong 850mb warm advection ahead of the
upper shortwave trough centered over the TX Panhandle vicinity as of
13z. A shallow layer of low level cold advection is wrapping around
the back side of a surface low located near CDS, and temperatures
continue to fall across northwest OK. The depth of the dendritic
growth zone will remain somewhat shallow, but strong forcing through
the layer and deep, saturated vertical profiles should be sufficient
for localized heavy snow bands to develop as the deformation zone
pivots eastward across the area this morning. In addition to snow,
northerly surface winds around 10-20 mph will result in blowing and
drifting snow and further reduce visibility.

..Leitman.. 01/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37729865 37289848 36859851 36539873 36299921 36229949
            36270004 36400044 36640078 36860096 37080098 37640081
            38020053 38230008 38349980 38359954 38289929 38049893
            37729865