Severe Weather - Flooding

000
ACUS01 KWNS 300053
SWODY1
SPC AC 300051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms primarily capable of producing
damaging winds will continue across parts of the Northeast states
this evening.

...Northeastern States...

Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Middle
Atlantic this evening ahead of the short-wave trough ejecting across
the Ohio Valley. A corridor of untapped instability currently
resides across the Middle Atlantic from VA into southeastern PA
where MLCAPE values range from 1500-2000 J/kg. Scattered convection
is approaching this reservoir of buoyancy and vertical shear remains
strong -- supportive of organized updrafts. 00z sounding from RNK
has sampled the convective generation zone well and this profile
supports maintaining SLGT Risk across this region until
thunderstorms spread toward the Atlantic Coast. For more information
on this scenario, reference MCD # 763.

Farther north across New England, organized convection is
progressing across northern NH into northwestern ME where a narrow
axis of instability remains. Locally damaging winds can be expected
for the next few hours with this activity.

..Darrow.. 05/30/2020

$$

000
ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon/evening particularly across the Pacific Northwest, with
isolated severe risk arcing from there southeastward across the
northern and central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
While broad upper troughing shifts slowly eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S., an upper low is forecast to move
north-northeastward across northern California and the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday.  In between, ridging will prevail over the
Intermountain region.

At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly eastward across New
England and the Atlantic Coast states.  In the West, a compact
surface low will shift northward across the Pacific Northwest ahead
of the upper system, while an arcing lee trough persists across the
northern and central High Plains.

...Pacific Northwest...
As ascent increases across Oregon and Washington through the day,
ahead of the upper low, thunderstorms are expected to develop within
a destabilizing environment as diurnal heating of a relatively moist
low-level airmass yields moderate (generally 1000 to 2000 J/kg)
mixed-layer CAPE across parts of central Oregon and into Washington.
 Enhanced southerly flow through a deep layer will yield not only
ample shear for organized/rotating storms, but also fast storm
motions, with upscale growth into northward-moving clusters
expected.  Along with risk for hail, locally damaging winds are
expected, as storms shift northward through the afternoon and
evening hours.

...Western Montana and across the northern/central High Plains...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in an
arc-shaped zone around the periphery of the upper ridge during the
afternoon as modest diurnal destabilization occurs, with development
aided by easterly/southeasterly low-level upslope flow.
Moderate/anticyclonic westerly/northwesterly winds aloft will
contribute to ample shear, such that a few storms may reach severe
levels, capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail locally.  Storms
should continue into the evening hours, before diminishing
overnight.

...Coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a storm or two nearing severe
levels -- are expected during the afternoon near/ahead of the
advancing cold front, and near sea-breeze boundaries.  While shear
is expected to be weak, and thus storms largely disorganized, an
isolated gust or two capable of tree damage may occur, before storms
diminish by early evening.

..Goss.. 05/29/2020

$$

385
NWUS53 KAPX 292245
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SAULT STE. MARIE        46.49N 84.37W
05/29/2020  M1.74 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 6PM.


&&

$$

422
FXUS63 KAPX 300119
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
919 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Secondary cold front is moving into our western CWA late this
evening...ushering in significantly cooler air and a mainly broken
low cloud deck. Remnants of diurnal showers and storms across our
eastern CWA are exiting into Lake Huron attm...diminishing as they
do with with loss of diurnal instability. A few showers have
popped up within the low cloud deck over Upper Michigan and
Wisconsin...and certainly cannot rule out some of these will
drift thru our area overnight. Have reworked POPs and cloud cover
for overnight to increase both...but still expect most locations
will remain dry but partly to mostly cloudy overnight.

Temps will be noticeably cooler tonight...but certainly not cold
enough to worry about frost potential. (We`ll save that worry for
tomorrow night.) Low temps will fall into the 40s across our
entire CWA overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...Getting cooler...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low. Maybe a few rumbles of
thunder thru early evening. High swim risk possible on some ne
lower MI beaches Saturday.

Rain band has departed ne lower MI. Strong surface heating and
cooling temps aloft have allowed showers to develop in the wake
of the departing rain. As expected, coverage is highest in s
central and se sections. But a few showers have popped elsewhere,
especially in central/eastern Mack Co into se Chip Co in upper
MI.

Ongoing showers in northern lower/eastern upper MI have a clear
diurnal component, and will fade away this evening. However, this
will be a somewhat slowed/delayed process, as steep mid-level
lapse rates are maintained. Some showers could linger near OSC and
Standish thru 9 pm or so. Meanwhile, showers are also trying to
bubble up in central/western upper MI. Remnants of these will try
to move into nw lower MI this evening, and models continue to
advertise that they should have some limited success in doing so.
Will continue to have a small chance of showers this evening in
parts of nw lower MI.

A secondary cold front is dropping across northern Superior this
afternoon. This will cross northern MI late tonight and early
Saturday. High pressure will then build into the upper MS Valley
and western Great Lakes. 850mb temps will cool to a couple degrees
either side of 0C by early Sat afternoon. Occasional cyclonic
curvature to the low level flow will interact with very marginal
lake instability to produce some clouds and small chances for rain
showers. This will occur in western/central Chippewa Co tonight,
and in the same area plus much of nw lower MI Sat morning. The
afternoon looks dry.

The secondary cold front will also bring breezier nw winds.
Winds/waves are presently progged to result in a high swim risk
Saturday on beaches in Presque Isle Co. This was added to the Haz
Wx Outlook earlier today.

Temps will be sharply cooler. Mins tonight will range thru the
40s. Highs Sat in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Frost potential for Saturday night
(and Sunday night?) for portions of eastern upper and northern lower
Michigan.

High pressure moves overhead of the forecast area Saturday night,
clearing any remaining clouds, producing light wind and excellent
radiational cooling. Ensemble members of the SREF and GEFS are both
tightly centered near the mean of around 32 degrees...from
experience we know that the inland areas and especially the
traditionally colder locations may reach into the upper 20s. Sunday
is supposed to be a bit warmer, so don`t expect as widespread of
frost during Sunday night (or possibly none if winds don`t
decouple), but still some areas inland of the Great Lakes coastlines
will continue to have a frost potential...will need to check again
after the next model runs. Other than the frost, skies should be
mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday with only some minor gustiness
during the afternoon hours from the west to northwest and should at
least diminish in intensity and possibly even decouple. Winds remain
out of the west for the most part Monday (with afternoon gustiness
once again) as high pressure just begins to move to the east of us
and allow some return moisture to begin late Monday evening on the
western periphery of said high pressure...returning shower chances
to northwest lower Michigan by the end of this forecast period
(Monday afternoon/evening). There will be increased cloudiness
Monday as aforementioned deeper moisture approaches the forecast
area. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s Sunday and
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Monday night
through Tuesday evening.

The next chance for precipitation appears to be the beginning of
next work week when a cold front associated with a low pressure
system over Canada approaches the Great Lakes region. We once again
will be in the warm sector ahead of this cold front...with a decent
LLJ, deep moisture, and upper level wave to help with the developing
of rain showers and thunderstorms once again. Pattern becomes a bit
more zonal after this...with only nuisance clouds and showers at
different periods of the long range forecast. Daytime temperatures
should be in the 70s with some locations occassionally hitting the
80 degree mark...while lows should be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Secondary cold front will continue to slide thru Lower Michigan
tonight...ushering much cooler air into our state. Low clouds and
MVFR/low VFR cigs will accompany this colder air. A few showers
are also possible...but the chances are too small to include in
the TAFs for now. NW winds around 10 kts tonight will strengthen
to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Nw winds will increase tonight into Saturday, as a secondary cold
front arrives and brings cooler air to northern MI. Small craft
advisories are already up on many waters. Lighter winds are
expected Sat night into Sun morning, before w to sw winds start to
pick up again Sun afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ347-348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ342-344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ

000
ACUS11 KWNS 300008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300008
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-300145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...western Nebraska...far northeast
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 300008Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail and wind are possible
across portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and far
northeast Colorado this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this evening across the
central High Plains along the northeastern periphery of an upper
high over the Four Corners. Weak upslope flow and daytime heating
have helped initiate storms within an environment characterized by
modest instability (500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and shear (30-40 knots bulk
shear). High-based, splitting storms are likely given the relatively
straight hodographs and dry low-levels. Marginally severe hail is
possible along with damaging wind gusts. These storms are likely to
diminish shortly after sunset, and a watch issuance is unlikely
given the isolated, marginal nature of the storms.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 05/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42290258 41530249 40700268 40490340 40670418 41380487
            42670596 43580610 43880575 43880511 43660439 43250361
            42610274 42290258

691
WGUS53 KAPX 281747
FFWAPX
MIC055-282045-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0005.200528T1747Z-200528T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
147 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Grand Traverse County in northern Michigan...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 144 PM EDT, emergency management reported flash flooding
  developing in the city of Traverse City. Up to two inches of rain
  have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring. Vehicles
  are stranded on roads, some of which are covered by up to 3 feet
  of water.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Emergency management.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Traverse City and Greilickville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4478 8566 4478 8564 4479 8564 4482 8552
      4470 8561 4472 8571

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

JZ

000
WGUS43 KAPX 282020
FLWAPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
420 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

MIC055-292015-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.W.0009.200528T2020Z-200529T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Traverse MI-
420 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Grand Traverse County in northern Michigan...

* Until 415 PM EDT Friday.

* At 420 PM EDT, emergency management reported flooding occurring in
  Traverse City. Over two inches of rain have already fallen...with
  additional rainfall of up to an inch expected through tonight.
  Flooding is already occurring...especially on the east side of
  town and along Front Street and the Boardman River.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Traverse City, Elk Rapids, Kingsley, Buckley, Fife Lake, Hannah,
  Mapleton, Grawn, Traverse City State Park, Karlin, Old Mission,
  Interlochen, Spider Lake, Williamsburg, Interlochen State Park and
  Bates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4477 8582 4478 8560 4485 8555 4487 8558
      4487 8553 4490 8553 4490 8556 4497 8552
      4499 8548 4486 8550 4482 8555 4478 8557
      4478 8550 4489 8542 4488 8538 4483 8538
      4481 8533 4451 8533 4451 8582

$$

MLR

000
WGUS83 KAPX 291616
FLSAPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1216 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

MIC055-291623-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200529T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Traverse MI-
1216 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY...

Grand Traverse County Emergency Management reports that flood waters
have greatly receded in the county, and are no longer believed to
pose a threat to life or property. A few showers are possible late
today, but any additional rainfall is expected to be minimal.

Streams and rivers will continue to run high, and standing water
will linger in places that drain poorly.


LAT...LON 4477 8582 4478 8560 4485 8555 4487 8558
      4487 8553 4490 8553 4490 8556 4497 8552
      4499 8548 4486 8550 4482 8555 4478 8557
      4478 8550 4489 8542 4488 8538 4483 8538
      4481 8533 4451 8533 4451 8582

$$

JZ