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FLUS43 KAPX 060718

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
318 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in much of northern
lower Michigan Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Severe storms
are not expected.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
318 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in portions of Lake
Michigan and Lake Huron Tuesday night. Severe storms are not

Some gale force wind gusts are possible on the lakes on Thursday.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 060517
SPC AC 060516

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the southern Mid
Atlantic region this afternoon, and southern portions of the Great
Lakes region tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe

Blocking appears likely to remain prominent through this period,
particularly at higher latitudes across North America, and to a
lesser extent across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical
eastern Pacific. The mid-level high center over the northeastern
Pacific may not be as well developed as the one to the northeast of
Hudson Bay, but ridging extending southward near 140W latitude is
forecast to continue to be flanked by a couple of mid-level

Models suggest that the eastern mid-level low may continue only a
slow southeastward migration near or just west of central into
southern California coastal areas today, as broad northern branch
ridging noses into the Pacific Northwest, in the wake of troughing
progressing east of the Canadian Rockies through the Canadian
Prairies. Cold mid-level air associated with the low, and a
deformation zone extending east-northeastward across parts of the
northern Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Plains may remain
a focus for destabilization supportive of mostly weak, widely
scattered thunderstorm activity today into tonight.

Downstream, broad mid/upper ridging likely will be maintained across
much of the central and southern tier of the interior United States.
Within the subtropical westerlies, a number of short wave
perturbations may continue to progress into and through the crest of
the ridging. One may contribute to scattered thunderstorm activity
across parts of the southern High Plains late this afternoon and
evening, though a combination of high-level cloudiness, lower/mid
tropospheric inhibition and somewhat marginal low-level moisture may
allow for only rather weak boundary-layer destabilization.

Meanwhile, at least a couple of perturbations rounding the crest of
the ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies may contribute to
somewhat better potential for vigorous thunderstorm development.
This may become focused across the southern Mid Atlantic region this
afternoon, and across southern portions of the Great Lakes tonight.

...Southern Mid Atlantic region...
Along and southwest of a stalling surface frontal zone, daytime
heating may contribute to relatively deep boundary-layer mixing to
the lee of the southern Appalachians, where low-level moisture may
become sufficient to support CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by late
afternoon. Aided by the weak mid-level forcing for ascent,
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to initiate off the
higher terrain by mid afternoon, before spreading toward coastal
areas through early evening. Although low-level wind fields are
forecast to be weak, 30-40 kt west-northwesterly flow at mid-levels,
coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and sizable temperature/dew
point spreads may contribute to a favorable environment for small
hail and a few strong downbursts.

...Upper Midwest into southern Great Lakes region...
Models suggest that strengthening divergence aloft will contribute
to increasing large-scale ascent, spreading east-southeastward along
a developing warm frontal zone across the region this evening into
the overnight hours. Coinciding with at least weak to perhaps
moderate destabilization (most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg),
aided by elevated moisture return associated with a 30-40+ kt
westerly jet in the 850-700 mb layer, the environment may become at
least marginally conducive to organized convection capable of
producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/06/2020


ACUS02 KWNS 060515
SPC AC 060514

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

A mid-level speed max will move from the SD/MN border to PA/WV
during the day 2 period. A low-amplitude mid-level ridge will
reside across the Gulf Coast/south-central U.S., and a series of
mid-level perturbations will move east across the northern portion
of the ridge across the Gulf Coast states. In the low levels, a
warm front will become established across parts of the southern
Great Lakes with the boundary extending into the Mid-Atlantic
states. A surface low is forecast to develop eastward from parts of
the Midwest during the day into PA late overnight.

...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
Showers and elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across
parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday morning before moving east into
the central Appalachians and VA. Although a strong storm is
possible early, the primary focus for thunderstorm activity will
occur farther west over the mid MS Valley during the late
afternoon/early evening and move quickly east after dark.

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, and a capping inversion
associated with an EML, will overspread much of the OH Valley during
the day. Gradual moistening in the boundary layer (surface
dewpoints 56-62 deg F) beneath the inversion will contribute to
moderate instability (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) across the
destabilizing warm sector. Strong westerly flow fields increasing
with height will support organized storm structures, including the
possibility for supercells and bowing segments. Models indicate
storm development may be delayed until the 22-02z period over parts
of IL and perhaps as far southwest as central MO. The current
expectation is for storms to develop near the warm front and
synoptic wind shift over northern IL and increase in coverage as a
west-southwesterly LLJ intensifies after dark. Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary severe risks, although a tornado is
possible with the more organized supercells or bowing segments. The
severe risk will likely move from west-northwest to east-southeast
during the night and eventually reach the Appalachians late.

Early-day storm activity over the upper OH Valley may persist and/or
redevelop on outflow as this activity moves east of the higher
terrain during peak heating. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed
boundary layer and moderate west-northwesterly flow in the mid
levels. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some potentially
capable of a hail/wind risk, will probably spread eastward across
the Piedmont and towards the coastal plain towards early evening.

...Lower MS Valley...
An increasingly moist/destabilizing airmass is expected to develop
across the region during the day. Models have been indicating the
possibility for a weak mid-level perturbation moving across this
region along with isolated to scattered storm development during the
day. The strong mid to high-level flow, coupled with the degree of
instability, may conditionally support a few strong to severe

..Smith.. 04/06/2020


FXUS63 KAPX 060717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure was directly over nrn Michigan early this morning,
ahead of shallow mid level ridging through the Plains. A closed
upper low off the California coast, along with additional upper
troughing in western Canada are sending minor shortwave activity
into the ridging, resulting in Rockies lee side low pressure, and
another weak low in Saskatchewan. A warm front was seen extending
east of the lee side low pressure, through the Central and Northern
Plains. There was also some inverted sfc troughing extending through
the Dakotas and nrn MN, where there were areas of generally light
rain. Forcing was rather weak, driven primarily by low to mid level
WAA and some RUC analyzed right entranced region upper divergence.
Skies were currently clear here in nrn Michigan, but some mid and
upper level clouds were starting to advect into the area.

Still not much weather to get excited about. The high pressure
pushes off to the east today, while the upstream ill-defined areas
of low pressure kind of congeal into one main low pressure in the
Dakotas by this evening. This low pressure tracks east into MN by
daybreak Tuesday, and the warm front is expected to extend SE into
the srn Great Lakes. As far as the weather, mid and upper level
clouds will increase over nrn Michigan through the day, with the
weak forcing traversing the sfc troughing that lays into the nrn
CWA. There could be some light rain that rolls through eastern upper
and perhaps far nrn lower today, before the forcing exits east by
tonight. There could actually be some decreasing cloudiness across
the nrn CWA as this occurs. Meanwhile, clouds may continue across the
SW CWA, north of the warm front. All precipitation with the front
however, is more than likely to remain south of nrn Michigan.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north,
and the mid and upper 50s in the srn CWA. Lows tonight will largely
be in the low to mid 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...Dry, Wet, Dry, Wet...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder is possible south of a line
from CVX to near East Tawas. However, severe thunderstorms are not
expected at this time.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes...While the weather
itself is quiet, well there is some rain moving into the region, the
forecast for Tuesday will be a bit on the tricky side. The problem
stems from the low level dry air and the moisture coming from the
west, but in a top down approach. This would produce RH problems for
the fire weather community, prior to the rain starting, and possibly
slowing the onset of the precipitation.

Model soundings are showing a fairly deep (initially) layer of dry
air that starts at the sfc and goes up to about 840 mb before there
is a layer of moisture (clouds) that should be moving into the
region around 12z/Tue. It`s a fairly dry layer as well with the
dewpoints getting to -20C around 900 mb. So think that the showers
will be spotty around the region, but the RH could mix well enough
to drop the sfc dewpoints to sub 30F. The question then is will the
cloud cover keep the temperatures down for the RH to not drop to
critical levels? The initial answer is yes, but it will be close.
The model soundings suggest that 25F with a 52F dry bulb would
produce 35% RH. That is getting into the dry territory. Think that I
will have to make adjustments, based on the going forecast, but
think that it won`t be as drastic as the last two days.

It looks like the rain could start sometime, mainly after 00z/Wed as
the warm front moves into the region, and elevated convection breaks
out. MUCAPEs in the elevated on the NAM model soundings show around
100-150 J/kg. The front and the sfc low moves out of the Upper Great
Lakes leaving the forecast area dry through about 21z/Wed. After
21z/Wed, a 500 mb shortwave trough and sfc cold front moves into the
region brings another shot of rain, but that looks to be thunder-
less. The rain would be in for a relatively short time and then out
by 12z/Thu.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Looks like the polar air is
going to try and make a run on us as the cold front that moves
through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night, will be what ushers
in the colder than normal temperatures. The 500 mb low drops into
the Upper Great Lakes, and the high temperatures fall from near 60
on Wednesday to near 40 on Thursday. There could be some snow
showers on Thursday as the cold air moves into the region, but think
that most of this will be rain or drizzle as the temperatures warm
to near 40 in the afternoon. Thursday night, the models have
showers, probably a mix or all snow by Friday morning. Friday, The
ECMWF dries out Friday morning, the GFS continue the showers into
the afternoon. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are still around
-8c for so, but the ECMWF has 850 mb temperatures around -4c, so
think that things stay dry. Hard to say what happens on Saturday, as
the GFS shows some sort of NW flow showers, while the ECMWF has a
sfc low and warm front moving into the region for Saturday night.
This may bring some showers Saturday night, but the front doesn`t
look like it gets anywhere until Sunday morning. Both models have
some sort of wave moving through with rain, so will leave the rain
for Sunday. This last wave looks to be the wave that will usher in
the below normal temperatures that the 8-14 day outlooks has on it
that last two days. So will expect cool temperatures to begin.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020


High pressure is slowly crossing northern MI this evening. Our
airmass is very dry, with mainly clear skies. As the high moves
off, high and eventually mid clouds will increase, very late
tonight and especially on Monday. Could be a few sprinkles in the
PLN area Monday, but better chances for rain will pass by to the
north. Regardless, conditions will remain VFR.

Light winds into Monday morning, then lake breezes develop.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

High pressure will linger in the Great Lakes today, with light
southerly winds turning to lake breezes again this afternoon. This
high pressure presses east tonight, while low pressure out to our
west Tuesday, crosses the region Tuesday evening, bringing a good
chance for much of northern lower Michigan to receive showers and
potentially a rumble of thunder. Fairly light easterly winds Tuesday
morning will swing more S/SE through the day and evening, before
abruptly turning out of the W/NW and increasing a bit later Tuesday
night. Speeds however, are expected to remain below advisory levels
over this time.





ACUS11 KWNS 052224
SPC MCD 052223

Mesoscale Discussion 0288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020

Areas affected...Sierra Nevada Mountains

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 052223Z - 060430Z

SUMMARY...Long-duration heavy snow event for the Sierra Nevada is
expected to persist well into the overnight period. Snowfall rates
of 2-3 inches/hour should be common this evening through tonight,
gradually shifting south from the northern into the central and
southern portions of the mountain range.

DISCUSSION...Robust orographic ascent is well underway amid strong
deep-layer south-southwest flow downstream of a potent upper-level
shortwave trough just off the northern CA coast. Heavy snow is
ongoing across the I-80 and US-50 corridors along the northern
periphery of a low-topped lightning-producing squall over the
Central Valley. Potential will exist for additional squall
development into the northern portion of the San Joaquin Valley this
evening, which would further aid in enhancing heavy snow rates over
higher terrain. A slow southward shift in the axis of heavy snow
rates is consistently progged by short-term guidance from north to
south. Most locations will likely experience many hours of heavy
snow before weakening of upslope flow occurs during the early
morning Monday.

..Grams.. 04/05/2020

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 39272090 39512094 39592076 39362052 38882006 38191946
37651894 37031841 36491847 36431868 37141918 37541967
38082015 38742058 39272090