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000
FLUS43 KAPX 272005
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-281200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
305 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-281200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
305 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 280053
SWODY1
SPC AC 280051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South
Texas to coastal Mississippi tonight.

...Discussion...
As the main/leading band of convection sags gradually southward
toward/off the Gulf Coast, marginal risk for severe storms is
likewise shrinking from north to south. At this point, only areas
of southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi maintain
sufficient CAPE/shear combination to support a stronger updraft or
two this evening.

Farther west, over portions of central and southern Texas and the
middle and upper Coastal Plain, scattered storms are ongoing. Model
data (primarily HRRR members) continues to suggest that an overnight
increase in storm coverage -- owing to a weak increase in
quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent -- may yet occur. Given ample
elevated CAPE (per steep mid-level lapse rates evident on this
evening`s DRT RAOB), and strong mid-level southwesterlies, a few
stronger storms may evolve with time. Primary severe risk would
likely be hail, though a locally strong wind gust cannot be ruled
out.

..Goss.. 11/28/2020

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 271700
SWODY2
SPC AC 271658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper low and attendant shortwave trough will eject from the
southern Rockies to the southern Plains on Saturday. As the trough
emerges over the Plains late in the period, a weak surface low will
develop along the middle/upper TX coast toward southwest LA,
allowing a stalled cold front to surge eastward across southern TX
to the Sabine River vicinity. Meanwhile, a warm front will remain
draped west-to-east from the surface low over southwest LA to near
the FL/GA border.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of eastern TX into
the Ozark Plateau and lower MS Valley in this warm advection regime
ahead of the upper trough. While a couple of strong storms are
possible near the TX Gulf coast, instability will be limited over
land by cloud cover/poor heating and widespread precipitation, and
any severe potential is expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 11/27/2020

$$


683
NWUS53 KAPX 251559
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1059 AM EST WED NOV 25 2020

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1009 AM SNOW 3 ESE FAIRVIEW 44.70N 84.00W
11/25/2020 M5.5 INCH OSCODA MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.

0900 AM SNOW LUZERNE 44.62N 84.27W
11/25/2020 E5.0 INCH OSCODA MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0900 AM SNOW HIGGINS LAKE 44.46N 84.74W
11/25/2020 M3.5 INCH ROSCOMMON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL. STORM TOTAL.

0841 AM SNOW 1 NE NORTH HIGGINS LAKE 44.51N 84.71W
11/25/2020 M5.5 INCH CRAWFORD MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 2PM YESTERDAY. 10 S OF
GRAYLING.

0830 AM SNOW 1 SSE MIO 44.65N 84.12W
11/25/2020 M3.5 INCH OSCODA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MYOM4 MIO WWTP.

0800 AM SNOW KALKASKA 44.73N 85.18W
11/25/2020 E5.0 INCH KALKASKA MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL. 24 HOURS.

0800 AM SNOW 1 S LAKE CITY 44.31N 85.20W
11/25/2020 M4.3 INCH MISSAUKEE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION LKCM4 LAKE CITY EXP
FARM.

0800 AM SNOW 4 WNW WELLSTON 44.23N 86.04W
11/25/2020 M4.5 INCH MANISTEE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-MN-6 WELLSTON 3.9 WNW.

0800 AM SNOW 4 SW GREILICKVILLE 44.75N 85.70W
11/25/2020 M3.1 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-27 TRAVERSE CITY 4.7
W.

0800 AM SNOW 5 S BENZONIA 44.54N 86.11W
11/25/2020 M4.1 INCH BENZIE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-BZ-1 BENZONIA 5.3 S.

0748 AM SNOW 4 SW SMITHVILLE 44.49N 85.21W
11/25/2020 M5.7 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HR TOTAL FROM 11 N OF LAKE CITY.

0700 AM SNOW 1 S GLADWIN 43.98N 84.49W
11/25/2020 M3.5 INCH GLADWIN MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GLAM4 GLADWIN.

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW ONEKAMA 44.39N 86.22W
11/25/2020 M4.2 INCH MANISTEE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-MN-7 ONEKAMA 1.8 NNW.

0700 AM SNOW 1 NNW WELLSTON 44.23N 85.96W
11/25/2020 M5.2 INCH MANISTEE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WLNM4 WELLSTON 1 N.

0600 AM SNOW 3 ENE KINGSLEY 44.60N 85.48W
11/25/2020 M3.8 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-21 KINGSLEY 2.7 ENE.


&&

$$

FEF




998
FXUS63 KAPX 272343
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Positively tilted shortwave trough in the process of pivoting across
northern Michigan this afternoon...part of a progressive northern
stream flow regime found across central NOAM. While trough axis is
largely void of any widespread precipitation, just enough boundary
layer moisture and uptick in over-water thermal gradient via
attendant cooling H8 layer to likely provide a few light showers yet
this afternoon. Temperatures continue to run a touch on the mild
side for this time of year, with current readings in the upper 30s
and lower 40s a good five or more degrees above specific normal
values for today`s date.

Shortwave trough exits stage right quickly this evening, with
departure of coldest temperature anomalies running just a few hours
behind. Building mid level heights and development of rather
impressive warm air advection on northern fringes of lower Ohio
Valley centered high pressure look to bring dry and seasonably mild
conditions much of this weekend.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering light
lake effect shower chances this evening and temperature/cloud
trends through Saturday.

Details:

Gotta believe we will see at least a few lake-induced rain and snow
showers rotate off Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan into
this evening as inversion heights exceed 5kft and decent moisture
remains in the convective boundary layer. Definitely not looking
like a big deal for sure, with at most a few tenths of an inch of
snow expected. Any lake effect showers expected to come to an end
during the overnight as both subsidence increases and coldest
temperatures aloft depart. Likely to even see a scattering out of
the cloud cover, with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear by
morning across a good portion of northern lower Michigan.

Area will be fully engulfed in warm air advection regime Saturday as
weak wave passes by well to our north and surface high pressure
settles into the Ohio Valley. Increasingly gusty southwest winds
will be the result, at times likely gusting up and over 25 mph by
the afternoon. Despite aggressive warming aloft and what should be
mostly to partly sunny skies, limited mixing depth should keep
temperatures from reaching their full potential. Still, expected
highs in the lower and middle 40s are definitely much warmer than
one would expect as we head into the waning days of November.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

...Mild then Turning Brisk with Small Snow Chances...

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Gusty winds and chilly wind
chills Monday.

No big change in the forecast with the mild zonal flow Saturday
night into Sunday morning giving way to an incoming moisture starved
northern stream trough. It still does not look like this trough will
link up with a deepening southern stream feature moving by to our
south and east fast enough to realize any significant weather across
northern Michigan. Impacts on our area appear to be limited to gusty
winds and perhaps a few snow showers late Sunday night into Monday.
Northerly winds are expected to become increasingly gusty later
Sunday night and especially on Monday which will bring in cooler
temperatures. Highs Sunday in the unseasonably mild mid 40s to near
50 will be replaced by highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday.
Brisk winds will lead to wind chills only in the teens Monday. Lows
Saturday night ranging from around 30 to the mid 30s with mainly the
20s expected for lows Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

...Seasonably Chilly then Turning Milder...

High impact weather: None is expected.

Remaining brisk into Tuesday evening with perhaps a few lake induced
snow showers. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with increasing
heights for mid to late week (as we watch another system likely move
by to our south). Milder air is again expected to make a return to
northern Michigan as well as little to no chance of precipitation
for the second half of the week. Temperatures will start out near
seasonable levels Tuesday then moderate to at least a few degrees
above normal for the remainder of the long term. Actually, am not
expecting a major pattern change to occur until at least the second
week of December and more likely toward the the middle of December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 643 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

MVFR early then improving to VFR.

A weak cold front is contributing to a small area of -SHRA/-SHSN
moving into nw lower MI this evening (PLN presently, perhaps
later on at TVC/APN). This is expected to diminish as it moves
across the area. Drier air will eventually work in behind the
front, with cigs improving and clouds decreasing overnight and
Saturday.

Lightish west winds tonight, will back sw and become gustier on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Increasingly gusty southwest winds expected later tonight into
Saturday, resulting in small craft advisory conditions on several of
our nearshore waters. Southwest winds are expected to slowly
decrease in speed heading through Saturday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for
LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB



774
ACUS11 KWNS 272238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272237
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and
southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272237Z - 280030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, will
remain possible for portions of southeast Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama as a line of thunderstorms
continues to push southeast and new convection develops along a warm
frontal zone.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from southeast LA, southern MS,
and southwest AL has shown shallow discrete convection developing
along a surface warm front that is draped from southern LA into
southern AL. These storms should remain relatively discrete, and
strong deep layer shear has allowed for a few storms to take on
supercell characteristics. Additionally, transient, but weak,
velocity couplets have been noted with this activity, and given
around 150 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH (per the KMOB and KLIX VWPs) along with
ambient surface vorticity along the warm front, a brief tornado
associated with this activity appears possible over the next few
hours.

To the west, a line of storms continues to push to the southeast
into southern and southeastern LA. The environment ahead of this
line continues to feature ample (around 50 knots) deep layer shear
and sufficient instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), suggesting that
storm organization and intensification remains possible - especially
for segments of the line that can become more meridionally oriented
and normal to the deep shear vector. However, this potential may be
limited spatially as the storms begin to exit LA into the northern
Gulf. Increasing inhibition with the onset of diurnal cooling within
the next 2-3 hours may also limit the severe potential. Given these
concerns a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Grams.. 11/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30169246 30469181 30589100 30759011 31008965 31278877
31338813 31168778 30788782 30428796 30308840 30188912
29908922 29578971 29349031 29319095 29459165 29639213
29849242 30169246