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000
FLUS43 KAPX 031840
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-041200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in eastern portions of
Chippewa and Mackinac counties this afternoon, as well as over
portions of northeast lower Michigan this afternoon and early this
evening. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are various chances for thunderstorms Monday night through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-041200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in the St Mary`s river
system this afternoon, also in inland areas just west of Sturgeon
Point to Alabaster. No severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are various chances for thunderstorms Monday night through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 031946
SWODY1
SPC AC 031945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...ADJACENT
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible late this afternoon into tonight
across eastern Montana and parts of the Dakotas.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted in an attempt
to account for the gradual progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
features, and latest trends concerning destabilization, evident in
latest observational data/imagery.

For details concerning the severe weather potential through the
remainder of this period, please refer the 1630Z discussion appended
below, and the latest SPC Mesoscale Discussions (including recently
issued MD 1092).

..Kerr.. 07/03/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020/

...Northern High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon into tonight, with large hail and damaging winds
expected. The most likely scenario will be for storm
development/intensification to initially occur late this afternoon
and early evening across southwest/south-central Montana within a
corridor of post-frontal upslope flow and heating over the higher
terrain/mountains. While some supercells can be expected
particularly across southeast/east-central Montana, storms should
aggregate and linearly organize this evening/tonight as they
progress through the instability axis from far eastern Montana into
North Dakota/northwest South Dakota.

...Central High Plains to southern Plains/Ozarks...
Strong diurnal heating, acting upon both the higher terrain of
central/northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, and composite of
outflow boundaries across Kansas/Oklahoma, will combine with a moist
boundary layer to weaken MLCINH through the afternoon. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop across the
region, aided by an MCV across eastern Kansas. These storms will
predominantly be multicellular, but with transient/localized
supercell characteristics possible. The main concerns should be
isolated severe gusts and large hail.

...Northeast States...
A relatively moist/moderately unstable air mass resides along/south
of a southward-sagging cold front. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop and intensify this afternoon, initially
across eastern/southern New York and western
Massachusetts/Connecticut, with the strongest storms capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts. Modest mid-level lapse rates will keep
peak MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range over much of the area. Weak
low/middle-level winds and a related lack of substantial deep-layer
shear will limit organization and should keep the overall severe
potential relatively marginal/isolated.

...ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
Moderate to strong destabilization will continue to occur this
afternoon on the western/southern fringes of ongoing early day
thunderstorm clusters across the region. Thunderstorms should
diurnally intensify within the moist/unstable air mass and modestly
enhanced mid-level northerly winds could contribute to some
organization/sustenance. A few instances of locally damaging winds
could occur through the afternoon/early evening hours.

$$


968
ACUS02 KWNS 031743
SWODY2
SPC AC 031742

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA......

CORRECTED FOR TYPO AND WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A couple of organized clusters of severe storms may develop across
parts of the northern plains Saturday into Saturday night, posing a
risk for strong wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that there may be substantive weakening of prominent
mid-level ridging (initially centered near the Southwestern
international border through the southern high plains, and extending
northeastward across much of the southern Rockies, plains and Upper
Midwest) during this period. It appears that this may be largely
due to the progression of significant troughing within the
westerlies, northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies into
the Canadian Prairies by late Saturday night.

This may be preceded by a convectively induced or enhanced
perturbation migrating eastward along the North Dakota and Minnesota
international border area. A weaker trough in the westerlies may
lag to the southwest, gradually turning inland of the Pacific
Northwest coast, into the northern intermountain region. And
stronger (30-50 kt around 500 mb) westerly mid-level flow may
develop east-northeast of the northern Rockies, through North Dakota
and northern Minnesota.

Downstream, another belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
(initially curving southeast of Hudson Bay through the Canadian
Maritimes) may amplify southwestward through Quebec, toward the
lower Great Lakes and New England. This probably will be
accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, in the wake a preceding
front which may advance southward/southwestward into parts of the
Mid Atlantic.

Otherwise, deep-layer mean flow will remain generally weak across
much of the nation, beneath the remnant ridging and weak, lingering
downstream troughing across southeastern portions of plains and
lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast.

Seasonable moisture may contribute to destabilization supportive of
scattered thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern Rockies
and plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Mid
Atlantic. Some of this activity could pose at least a risk for
strong/potentially damaging wind gusts. However, coverage is
expected to remain sparse, resulting in severe probabilities near or
below 5 percent. Potential for organized severe storm development
appears most probable across parts of the northern plains.

...North Dakota into Minnesota...
Seasonably moist boundary-layer conditions will be maintained within
weak surface troughing, and perhaps along an effective warm frontal
zone, beneath the northern periphery of a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air. In the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates, models suggest that large CAPE on the order of
3000-4000+ J/kg will develop, as the convectively induced or
enhanced perturbation progresses along the international border
vicinity.

The extent of ongoing convection at the outset of the period
associated with this feature remains unclear, but re-intensification
of ongoing or new convective development seems probable. In the
presence of at least moderately strong deep-layer shear, the
environment seems likely to become conducive to organized
convection. This may include isolated supercells initially, before
convection grows upscale into an organizing cluster. Due to spread
within the various model output, some uncertainty lingers concerning
more precise time and location.

...Eastern Montana into Dakotas...
Relatively moist easterly low-level flow may contribute to
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE by late Saturday afternoon, as the
trough in the westerlies aids forcing for ascent and convective
development across the mountains. Activity should develop off the
higher terrain into the stronger instability and intensify in the
presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear. A few supercells
are possible, with upscale convective growth possible as activity
spreads across eastern Montana into adjacent portions of the Dakotas
through Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2020

$$



000
FXUS63 KAPX 031839
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
239 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...Well above normal temperatures...

High impact weather potential: Maybe a few garden
variety showers thunderstorms this afternoon?

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Large upper level ridge/surface heat dome continue to dominate the
weather across the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great
Lakes early this afternoon. Deep trough centered across New England
into the Canadian Maritimes, with weak shortwave/vorticity lobe
dropping southeast along ridge/trough interface into southeast
Michigan and southern Ontario. Weak surface trough working south
with this feature, with more of a "chaotic" wind field across the
northern Great Lakes owning to lake breeze development. While
corridor of deepest moisture has now moved off to our south, just
enough low level convergence along lake breezes and weak surface
trough to drive a developing cumulus field, especially across
northeast lower Michigan north into the Ontario Plateau region east
of Lake Superior. Cu is a bit too shallow, at least yet, to generate
any showers.

Surface component of upper level ridge gradually centers itself
directly overhead later tonight and Saturday. This, combined with
that upper level ridge and a still very warm low level thermal
environment means more warm and dry conditions across the Northwoods
to start the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing any shower
potential this afternoon and temperature trends tonight into
Saturday.

Details:

Will still monitor northeast lower Michigan and areas up near the
Saint Mary`s river for shower and storm development as low level
convergence and diurnally-driven instability become maximized. Not
overly confident on this idea, especially with maintenance of
capping in the mid levels. If showers do develop, they will quickly
come to an end early this evening as instability is lost. Mostly
clear/sunny weather expected overnight and Saturday as that high
pressure talked about earlier centers overhead. Will likely see at
least some patchy fog during the early morning hours as overnight
temperatures drop back into the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Temperatures Saturday will be very similar to the last few days,
with highs back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Those warm
temperatures and a very weak pressure gradient should result in
mature lake breezes during the afternoon, keeping those shoreline
areas a bit cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal, despite a low chance of an
isolated storm Sunday/Monday afternoons, mainly across far northeast
lower.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Little change to the large scale pattern
across the midsection of the country through the upcoming short term
forecast period. Large scale upper-level ridging remains in place
with the ridge axis gradually shifting from the northern plains/
Canadian prairies Saturday night eastward toward the western/
central Great Lakes by Monday. Surface high pressure overhead
Saturday night gradually presses eastward to wrap up the weekend
into the start of next week, with little in the way of sensible
weather or widespread appreciable rainfall expected across northern
Michigan.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Low PoPs
at times?

Nothing in the way of sensible weather is anticipated to kick off
the forecast period Saturday night with mainly clear skies, light
winds and mild temperatures with lows ranging from near 60 to the
mid 60s area-wide.

Another very warm day anticipated Sunday with highs ranging from the
upper 80s to mid 90s once again...warmest across downsloping areas
of northeast lower. Suppose that a few blemishes to an otherwise dry
forecast area possible Sunday as a weak boundary sags across
portions of Lake Superior and the U.P....perhaps bringing an
isolated shower/storm to western sections of Chip/Mack counties. In
addition, guidance suggests a weak mid-level perturbation rippling
through larger scale flow in the presence of a slight uptick in
moisture may prove to be enough to kick of a few isolated showers/
storms along an inland penetrating lake breeze over northeast lower,
mainly during the afternoon hours. Expect any showers/storms that
are able to develop will be rather isolated and fleeting in nature
before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

Similar conditions anticipated Monday with highs similar to that of
Sunday. The low possibility of another diurnally driven shower or
storm across portions of eastern upper and northeast lower remains,
although confidence continues to be rather low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorms possible at
times?

Lower than desired confidence prevails through much of the long term
forecast period as the guidance envelop of solutions widens. Still
looks like very warm temperatures will continue, along with
increasing humidity through much of the week. While the GFS suggests
much more in the way of rainfall, it`ll be hard to justify that
going against persistence of the last week and the drier
GEM/ECMWF/GEFS ensemble members. Gut feeling is that while there`ll
be occasional chances for isolated showers/storms, any appreciable
widespread rainfall will continue to be hard to come by.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Mostly VFR conditions expected with just a few high based cumulus
and shreds of cirrus passing overhead. One exception could be at KPLN
with support for some light fog/mist early Saturday morning,
perhaps dropping visibility to MVFR to IFR at times. Any fog will
lift quickly after sunrise on Saturday. Light winds, with local
lake breeze development.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

High pressure expected to build back overhead late tonight into the
weekend, bringing dry and very warm weather with it. Light winds
will continue, with afternoon lake breezes expected through this
weekend. Very warm to hot temperatures and overlake stability,
combined with the light winds, will result in no wind/wave issues.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB


000
ACUS11 KWNS 031927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031926
OKZ000-032200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Areas affected...central parts of Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031926Z - 032200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are possible along an outflow boundary,
with isolated marginally severe wind or hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong instability is developing ahead of
an outflow boundary moving south into central parts of OK. Storms
have formed east of OKC, where MUCAPE is around 4000 J/kg. Visible
satellite also shows other towers forming along the length of the
boundary, as far west as Dewey County.

While shear is weak, there appears to be some influence from the MCV
over KS, and models indicate 500 mb winds veering to northwesterly
and increasing to near 20 kt during the late afternoon. This may
create enough deep-shear to sustain a few storm cores as they move
south or even south/southwest, with marginal hail and perhaps
isolated damaging downbursts.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34789843 35059897 35349924 35679924 35889903 35759864
35659813 35529765 35439715 35539669 35659617 35889579
35819559 35579544 35089557 34839598 34579696 34789843