National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Widespread Frost Expected Again Tonight

Widespread frost is expected again tonight, primarily across inland sections of northern lower Michigan as low temperatures fall into the low-mid 30s. Read More >


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000
FLUS43 KAPX 191846
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
246 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-201100-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
246 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Areas of frost are expected tonight in portions of northern lower
Michigan, mainly south of M-72.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-201100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
246 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 200052
SWODY1
SPC AC 200051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may persist into western Wyoming for a couple
hours, with gusty winds the most likely threat. Severe storms are no
longer expected.

...Eastern Idaho into western Wyoming...
Strong storms have moved off the upper Snake River Plain and are
being disrupted by the higher terrain to the east. Given the passage
of peak heating, and weaker instability downstream into Wyoming,
storms should continue to weaken. Until then, locally strong wind
gusts are possible, but the severe threat appears very low.

...Northeast Montana...
A front will continue to push east across the area, and lift
associated with the deepening frontal surge will result in
increasing precipitation, including a few embedded thunderstorms.
Objective analysis indicates only weak instability on the order of
250-500 J/kg MLCAPE due to extensive high clouds and poor low-level
moisture quality. While a few cores may produce small hail this
evening, severe weather is not anticipated.

..Jewell.. 09/20/2020

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 191724
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low on
Sunday. It still appears as if any severe threat associated with
Tropical Storm Beta will remain offshore through Monday morning.

...TX/LA Gulf Coast...
NHC is forecasting Tropical Storm Beta to move slowly westward
across the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and remain offshore of
the TX Gulf Coast through the end of the forecast period (12Z
Monday). The current relatively dry/stable environment along the
immediate TX/LA Gulf Coast will require significant modification to
support any brief tornado threat, and the current forecast track
would not support any appreciable surface-based destabilization
inland prior to the end of the period, so no probabilities have been
included at this time. If Beta ends up moving faster and/or further
north than currently expected, then low-end tornado probabilities
may eventually be needed across some portion of the immediate TX/LA
Gulf Coast.

..Dean.. 09/19/2020

$$


364
NWUS53 KAPX 152157
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
557 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
09/15/2020 M43 MPH LMZ344 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GTLM4 6 NE NORTHPORT.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 200102
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
902 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Showers in northern portions of the forecast area have persisted
longer than expected, and have settled a little further south than
planned. Near-term forecast has been adjusted accordingly,
including having more cloud cover this evening. Showers are
starting to dwindle along the tail end of the departing vort max,
back in the Munising area. Expect the bulk of showers to end over
the next 2-3 hours. However, a risk of showers could linger in
the St Marys Valley somewhat past midnight.

Most recent bias-corrected gridded min temp forecast is in
reasonable agreement with the going forecast. Feel like a frost
advisory is likely overkill in Manistee and Gd Trav Cos
specifically, but at this stage letting it ride seems the most
prudent action. Temps will be milder in the north, thanks to
clouds, and do not think the frost headline needs expanding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...One More Frosty Night...

High Impact Weather Potential...Areas of frost across northern
Lower MI tonight, mainly along/south of M-72

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...An area of high pressure at the
surface, currently centered over southern Ontario, will continue
to slowly drift east with time. This will allow southerly return
flow to develop during the period, especially heading into Sunday.
These southerly winds will help bring warmer temperatures to the
area on Sunday, but not before one more chilly/frosty night over
parts of the forecast area. A Frost Advisory was issued earlier
today for parts of northern Lower MI, primarily south of M-72.
This will be the area with the lightest winds, clearest skies, and
lowest dew points for tonight. Further north, winds will be a
little stronger, and a period of cloudiness from a passing upper-
level disturbance should keep temperatures warmer than the past
couple of night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...Let the Warming Begin...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperatures.

An upper level ridge early in the period gets flattened out by a
trough moving by well to our north later Monday into Monday night
leaving zonal flow into Tuesday. There will be little to no threat
of precipitation across the region with this setup. Meanwhile,
warmer air continues to slowly build into northern Michigan. So
expect clear to partly cloudy skies with above normal temperatures
through the period. Highs Monday in the upper 60s and low 70s then
the low and mid 70s Tuesday. Lows generally in the 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...Above Normal Temperatures then a little Cooler...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Zonal flow is expected to give way to a trough/surface cold front
moving in from the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. Extended
models continue to trend weaker with this system which will have to
be monitored as we get closer. Will continue with chances for rain
showers for now. Above normal temperatures are still expected to
temporarily get back down to around normal by the end of the week.
This should be short lived however as it looks like another ridge
will bring renewed warming heading into next weekend. This would be
good timing since the foliage should be blossoming by then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

VFR, though will watch for shallow ground fog late tonight.

A disturbance passing across northern Ontario is bringing a mid
cloud deck to parts of northern lower MI, though precip is
only found over upper MI points north. Cloud cover will diminish
late tonight. Not impossible for a touch of ground fog to form
late, with MBL likely seeing the best shot. VFR into and thru
Sunday.

Light se to s winds tonight, becoming somewhat breezy out of the
south on Sunday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Southerly winds are expected through the forecast period between a
departing area of high pressure, and a weak frontal system in the
Plains. Initially wind speeds will not be significant, but winds
and waves will increase heading into Monday with Small Craft
Advisory condtions possible in some areas by the end of the
period. Otherwise, dry condtions are anticipated.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
MIZ026>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...PB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...PB


000
ACUS11 KWNS 180911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180910
WAZ000-ORZ000-181115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Areas affected...Northwest Oregon...Far Southwest Washington

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 180910Z - 181115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue across
parts of northwest Oregon and may affect far southwest Washington as
well. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible but the threat is
expected to be too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a narrow corridor of
maximized low-level moisture from south-to-north in the Willamette
Valley of northwestern Oregon. Surface dewpoints along this corridor
are in the lower 60s F, which is contributing to MLCAPE estimated by
the RAP in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. A small cluster of
thunderstorms is ongoing along the instability axis. These storms
have formed in response to a band of large-scale ascent that is
spreading northward across western Oregon according to the
water-vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis. The storms are located
in moderate deep-layer shear. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Portland has
0-6 km shear near 35 kt with some speed shear in the mid-levels.
This combined with the instability should be enough for an isolated
severe threat over the next few hours. Hail and marginally severe
wind gusts may occur with the stronger rotating storms.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 09/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON 45182201 45772216 46252249 46372272 46392277 46422318
46162360 45672375 45252368 44582342 44252300 44532227
45182201