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288
FLUS43 KAPX 260804
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
304 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-270815-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
304 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Fluctuating temperatures and ice development on area rivers and
streams may result in ice jams and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a small chance for a period of freezing drizzle both
Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Fluctuating temperatures and ice development on area rivers and
streams may result in ice jams and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-270815-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
304 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 261622
SWODY1
SPC AC 261621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today from northern Mississippi to East
Tennessee and vicinity, as well as over parts of the interior
Northwest.

...TN Valley Vicinity...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over AR/LA tracking
eastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms have been accompanying
this system overnight and this morning, but lightning activity has
diminished greatly during the past few hours. This trend is likely
to continue through the mid/late afternoon as the upper system
de-amplifies. By early evening, southwesterly low-level winds will
strengthen across parts of MS/AL/TN, resulting in renewed potential
for a few thunderstorms tonight. Weak instability should preclude
the risk of severe storms.

..Hart.. 02/26/2021

$$


317
ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from north-central Texas
across northeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Lead shortwave trough is expected to extend from the Upper Great
Lakes into the central Appalachians early Saturday, before
continuing quickly northeastward in Quebec and off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Active upper pattern will push another
shortwave through the central/southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis
associated with this second shortwave trough will likely result in a
low over the central High Plains by late morning, with quick
northeastward progression across the central Plains thereafter.

A stalled frontal boundary associated with Friday`s system will
likely extend from near the AR/LA/MS border intersection
southwestward into the TX Hill Country. This boundary is then
forecast to begin moving northward as a warm front, supported by the
strengthening low-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave.
By late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, low 60s dewpoints
will likely be near the Red River. Persistent isentropic ascent
throughout this moist warm sector is expected to result in showers
and thunderstorms north of the front across eastern OK/western AR,
beginning Saturday evening.

Convective inhibition associated with a modest residual EML could
temper overall storm coverage, with dry air entrainment also
limiting updraft strength and persistence of those storms that do
develop. However, moderate to strong vertical shear could aid in
updraft organization, somewhat countering the weak buoyancy,
resulting in the low probability for a few stronger, longer-lived
storms. A few of these stronger storms could produce hail.

Additionally, storm development is possible early Sunday morning as
the cold front associated with the previously mentioned surface low
moves across central/eastern OK and northwest/north-central TX. The
EML is expected to persist across the region, with warm and dry
mid-level conditions potentially capping any deep convection along
the front. However, these conditions also foster strong buoyancy if
a storm can develop. Vertical shear over the region will also remain
strong. This result in a conditional risk for severe hail along the
front from eastern OK into north TX early Sunday morning.

..Mosier.. 02/26/2021

$$



294
NWUS53 KAPX 242308
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
608 PM EST WED FEB 24 2021

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW SAINT IGNACE 45.87N 84.73W
02/24/2021 E11.0 INCH MACKINAC MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR TOTAL. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.


&&

$$

JZ




367
FXUS63 KAPX 261456
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
956 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Michigan is sandwiched between surface high pressure centered
along the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure across south-central
Canada. Increased SW flow across the western Great Lakes, associated
moisture flux off Lake Michigan overtop an inland cold/moist
boundary layer managed to expand a nice batch of stratus/fog/freezing
fog across northern Lower Michigan this morning (some nice pics of
hoar frost here at the office forthcoming on social media this
morning).

Morning APX sounding reveals that surface based saturated layer
to about 800 feet AGL, but with very dry condtions above that.
This suggests our stratus/fog will mix out relatively easily as we
get into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Already seeing
that happen on visible satellite imagery, particularly off the
inland higher terrain into the tip of the mitt with downsloping
southerly flow.

So, still expecting mostly sunny conditions to develop across the
forecast area heading into the afternoon. Temps will warm into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal. Chance of light snow late tonight, with
an outside shot some freezing drizzle as well.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Mid level ridging was working into the western Great Lakes early
this morning, while upper troughing was settled in over the Rockies.
At the sfc, low pressure was in Manitoba, with a cold front that
extends off to the west. This was resulting in light snow showers
and flurries. Another weaker area of low pressure was in CO, ahead
of shortwave activity in the base of the upper troughing. Not much
in the way of precipitation was occurring with these features. Here
in nrn Michigan skies were clear, with some high level clouds
approaching from the west. We do have an increasing southerly
wind in between the high and low pressure. This was ushering in
warmer air, which has killed most all shallow overlake
instability to the point where there isn`t even any lake cloud
development.

Suppose there is still a chance that some minor moisture flux off
the Great Lakes, and for SW winds just above the sfc to advect it
in over land areas that are cooler than the Lakes. Especially
areas that have been able to cool off more efficiently, such as
lower lying areas shielded from the increased wind. So, wouldn`t
be surprised to see some shallow stratus develop over the next few
hours. However, that should be short-lived, as the atmosphere is
very very dry with PWATS at 0.15" or so. So, any shallow lake
cloud ought to quickly erode into this morning. This is expected
to leave behind plenty of sun for much of the remainder of the
day.

The upstream weak low pressure will draw a warm front up into nrn
Michigan by late tonight. Deep layer -divQ is pretty good, but much
of the forcing will get used up trying to saturate the very dry air
mass. Chances of seeing some light snow have gone down a bit, but
fcst soundings do reveal a pretty quick period of time late tonight
when deep saturation can take place. We will be battling the driest
mid levels, and there are subtle hints that lower level moisture
does thicken, but doesn`t reach the -10C isotherm for ice
activation. This leaves a small chance scenario for some freezing
drizzle, but I woulnd`t exactly bank on that.

Highs today will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight will
be in the upper half of the 20s, and some lower 30s over the GTV.
Bay region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Quiet, May be some Drizzle?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts...Saturday morning,
the last of the precipitation from the Friday night system is gone
and we begin to dry out with 850 mb temperatures around -2C.
However, that puts us into drizzle/freezing drizzle for a few hours
as the mid-level moisture strips out, before the lower level
moisture does. Things look to stay dry through about 06z/Sun, as
the rest of the dry air moves through the region. Moisture begins to
move into the U.P. overnight. The forecast area is sandwiched
between two systems, a shortwave trough in N Wisconsin, and a
beefier system along the Ohio River. The models are expecting the
precipitation will drag through N Lower from the northern system,
although from experience, a stronger system to the south makes some
of these northern systems iffy. The models then suggest that there
is a quiet time, Sunday evening, and then the 850 mb temperatures
over E Lake Superior and N Lake Michigan begin to drop below -12C by
12z/Mon. And then it gets into the -teens and -20c. LES is more
likely by Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this point.

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...Monday, The last of the systems
looks like it is heading east, and there may be some LES as the 850
mb temperatures fall on both the GFS and ECMWF models. Tuesday and
Wednesday look dry, but the models begin to go their separate ways
as GFS remains much less amplified, and the ECMWF has a deeper 500
mb trough in the N Plains, that would bring some precipitation by
the end of the Wednesday. The CMC would side with the GFS in this
case. The GFS continues dry weather through Thursday, while the
ECMWF has a massive 500 mb cut off low centered over the Lower Great
Lakes, with precipitation back into Michigan. Not sure which way to
go with this. Wait and watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

High pressure across the srn Great Lakes will move out over the
Atlantic today, while low pressure and a cold front slowly approach
the nrn Great Lakes tonight. Outside of a possible brief period of
MVFR/IFR CIGS for MBL, and perhaps TVC this morning, plenty of sun
is expected for today, and resulting VFR conditions. Weak low
pressure and a warm front arrive late tonight, allowing for
thickening cloud cover that will lead to a chance for light snow
late in the TAF period, with an outside shot at some freezing
drizzle. CIGS are expected to drop into low MVFR/possible IFR very
late in the TAF period.

Gusty southerly winds are expected today into this evening, with
LLWS by mid evening into the overnight hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

High pressure across the srn Great Lakes will move out over the
Atlantic today, while low pressure and a cold front slowly approach
the nrn Great Lakes tonight. The pressure gradient tightens up
decently over this time for periodic advisory level S/SW gusts. This
cold front sags into the region Saturday, bringing a much looser
gradient. Speeds will go sub-advisory for Saturday and Saturday
night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345-
349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



288
ACUS11 KWNS 260525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260525
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Arkansas...Northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260525Z - 260730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail threat continues with convection.
Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted at this time.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching the
southern High Plains late this evening. This feature should eject
into eastern OK/Northeast TX by sunrise. Latest radar trends suggest
the leading edge of this short wave is becoming increasingly
influential in convection/intensity along a corridor from west of
SEP-DFW-PRX-TXK-north of ELD. Latest forecast soundings suggest this
elevated convection is likely rooted between 750-800mb, with
cloud-layer lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. While MUCAPE is not
particularly noteworthy, steep lapse rates within the cool mid
levels will likely contribute to some threat for hail, especially
where more discrete structures are maintained. Latest thinking is a
considerable amount of convection will likely continue along the
aforementioned corridor for the next several hours with a slow
east-southeast movement to this evolving complex. While shear
remains strong, severe hail should remain marginal in size and
likely rather isolated in coverage. For these reasons, a watch does
not appear warranted.

..Darrow/Grams.. 02/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32509865 33139735 33509594 33679446 33659335 33479240
33019258 33079408 32899572 32539689 31999810 32509865