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000
FLUS43 KAPX 240704
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
304 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-251200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
304 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy frost is possible tonight in the usual cold spots in the
interior of northern lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Patchy frost is again possible Friday night in the usual cold
spots in the interior of northern lower Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

msb


267
ACUS01 KWNS 240550
SWODY1
SPC AC 240549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA VICINITY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms may occur over a portion of the
Plains/High Plains region this afternoon and evening. A couple
strong afternoon and evening storms may also affect portions of the
northwestern states.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough moves slowly east across eastern North America, a
second -- centered over the British Columbia coast early -- is
progged to advance east across the Canadian Rockies through the
period. A much weaker/subtle short-wave trough is forecast to
advance east across the U.S. Rockies and later the High Plains
vicinity, through the background longer-wavelength ridge expected to
prevail over much of the Rockies and Plains states. Finally, very
weak upper lows are progged to linger nearly in place near the
southern California coast, and in the vicinity of south Florida.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to linger from the
southeast Atlantic coastal region southwestward and then westward
across the Gulf Coast area into Texas. Weak lee troughing is
forecast to reside over the High Plains, while a cold front advances
slowly across the northwest states. Finally, Tropical Storm Harvey
is forecast to be moving north-northwest toward south Texas late in
the period.

...Western and central Nebraska/southwest South Dakota vicinity...
Daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer -- progged to
reside in the vicinity of a weak warm front extending from the
northern High Plains across the Nebraska/South Dakota border
vicinity -- will result in moderate afternoon CAPE development. The
warm front, a roughly north-south lee trough, and southeast upslope
flow near the Black Hills, should all serve as possible foci for
storm development, as a weak upper short-wave trough crosses Wyoming
and approaches this region.

Rather weak mid-level flow is expected across the area (generally at
or below 20 kt), but with low-level southeast winds expected,
directional shear with height may support some organization/rotation
within stronger updrafts. Resultant/local risk for hail and/or
damaging winds is evident with one or two of the strongest storms.
A nocturnal increase in low-level southeasterlies could allow a
cluster or two of storms to linger into the evening, but expect any
lingering/local severe risk to diminish before midnight.

...Parts of eastern Oregon to western Montana...
Weak destabilization near and ahead of a cold front forecast to be
advancing southeast across the region should support isolated to
scattered storm development during the afternoon, with greatest
convective coverage forecast from east-central Oregon to west
central and southwest Montana. With this region to experience
glancing influence of the eastward-moving western Canada upper
trough -- including some enhancement to the west-southwesterly
mid-level flow field, a couple of stronger storms could evolve
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Modest CAPE suggests
little risk for large hail, but sub-cloud evaporation within a
fairly deep boundary layer and moderate east-northeast storm motion
could promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with one or two of the
strongest cells. Risk should diminish by mid evening as diurnal
cooling/stabilization of the boundary layer commences.

..Goss.. 08/24/2017

$$



000
ACUS02 KWNS 240451
SWODY2
SPC AC 240450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
The circulation center of Harvey may reach the lower or middle Texas
coast by late Friday night, accompanied by some risk for tornadoes.
Otherwise, a cluster of thunderstorms may develop across parts of
the Black Hills and Badlands of South Dakota, into portions of the
middle Missouri Valley, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather Friday evening.

...Synopsis...
Fairly sharp cyclonic mid-level flow is expected to linger either
side of an axis extending across the Canadian Maritimes, southward
through the southern Appalachians/southern Mid Atlantic Coast
region, through this period. However, models indicate that the
significant upstream short wave trough, reaching the Canadian
prairies by early Friday, will pivot northeastward into the
Northwest Territories by late Friday night. As it does, the
stronger mid-latitude westerlies appear likely to retreat north of
the western and central Canadian/U.S. border area, while subtropical
ridging begins to build northward through the Southwest, and
southern portions of the Great Basin, Rockies and Plains. Within
generally weak westerly/northwesterly mid and upper flow on the
periphery of this ridging, at least one minor perturbation may
progress east southeastward across parts of the Dakotas and mid
Missouri Valley region. Within/beneath the upper ridging, extending
along an east/southeast axis into the Caribbean and Bahamas, it
still appears that a significant tropical cyclone will migrate into
the vicinity of the lower/middle Texas coast by late Friday night.

...Texas coastal areas...
Harvey may reach hurricane intensity as it approaches lower/middle
Texas coastal areas late Friday/Friday night. As it does, sizable
clockwise curved low-level hodographs may develop across coastal
areas well in advance of its arrival, but until the near surface
flow veers from northeasterly to more of an easterly or
southeasterly component, to the right of its forward motion,
relatively stable boundary layer air may minimize any tornado
potential. Appreciable boundary layer destabilization along coastal
areas may not occur until late Friday evening, or later. Once
instability begins to increase, strong low-level shear will probably
become supportive of at least some risk for tornadoes with
convection associated with Harvey. The extent of this risk remains
unclear, and will strongly hinge on mesoscale developments which are
still characterized by low predictability this far in advance.

...Parts of the northern Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may develop near
the surface trough across the region during the late afternoon
hours, perhaps aided by forcing associated with the minor short wave
perturbation. While westerly deep layer mean flow will be weak,
sufficient veering of winds from lower through mid-levels may
contribute to vertical shear marginally sufficient for organized
convective development. Any severe weather threat seems likely to
remain rather isolated across most areas, but guidance appears
increasingly suggestive that forcing associated with modest
nocturnal low-level jet strengthening (to around 30+ kt at 850 mb)
may enhance convective development spreading east of the Black
Hills/Badlands area of South Dakota by Friday evening. This is
where a remnant zone of stronger differential surface heating,
beneath at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of
CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, may contribute to an
environment conducive to an evolving cluster of storms accompanied
by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/24/2017

$$


390
NWUS53 KAPX 222327
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
727 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW AU SABLE 44.42N 83.35W
08/22/2017 M41 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

AWOS STATION OSC, WURTSMITH AFB.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 240707
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
307 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...Unseasonably chilly weather to continue...

High impact weather potential...Looking increasingly likely for at
least a bit of frost tonight for some.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Not much change, with northern Michigan
firmly entrenched in deep and chilly northerly flow within southwest
extent of anamously deep (for August) northeast NOAM centered trough
axis. And, yet another reinforcing shot of even colder set to arrive
early this morning as secondary surface trough and mid level
shortwave trough pass through the region. H8 temperatures pushing
the lower single digits within this approaching thermal trough, and
when combined with some enhanced synoptic moisture support, will
likely continue to generate at least a few light lake induced
showers in favored northerly flow areas through this morning. Strong
Canadian high pressure further builds into the area later today, and
especially tonight. Plenty of dry air and clear skies underneath
this high, setting the stage for very chilly temperatures tonight
and at least some patchy frost formation in our typical ice box
locations.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges...Lake induced shower trends
this morning. Just how cold to go tonight and possible frost
headline considerations.

Details...Northerly flow lake processes to continue into this
morning as core of coldest air and some synoptic moisture
contribution passes. Minimal forcing and unfavorable trajectories
should keep shower intensity light and overall coverage minimal.
Lake augmented clouds this morning expected to give way to
increasing amounts of afternoon sunshine as diurnal disruption kicks
into overdrive and with arrival of drier air. Even with that
increasing sun, expect highs to struggle into the middle 60s for
most, a testament of just how chilly this late summer airmass really
is.

All systems appear a go for one heck of a nocturnal temperature
response tonight, with winds becoming essentially calm under what
should be mostly clear skies. Cool start to the evening will only
help the cause. Statistical guidance has caught on, with both met
and mav progs dropping some of our typical colder locations into the
middle 30s by morning. Not entirely out of the question if
conditions set up just right that even these readings may be a touch
too "mild". Day-shift forecaster already lowered temperatures toward
the cool end of the guidance spectrum, and simply see no reason to
deviate much from such. Definitely cold enough for some patchy frost
development by morning. Will continue to highlight this concern in
our latest hazardous weather products. With that said, not
completely out of the question that the incoming crew may have to
hoist a frost advisory for at few select counties by later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Slowly rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will
lead to mostly clear skies through the period. Daytime temperatures
will slowly increase over the previous day by a few degrees reaching
into the lower and middle 70s Saturday. Lows Friday night will be
cool once again with patchy frost even possible in low lying
spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

The flow is blocked up with tropical moisture (from Harvey) trapped
near the Texas coast as a narrow upper level ridge extends into east
central Canada. Meanwhile extended models ever so slowly meander a
northern stream cutoff upper level low out of the Upper Mississippi
Valley toward the Great Lakes. This will lead to generally small
chances for showers in parts of the forecast area (especially west
and south) Sunday on through the rest of the period. Temperatures
are expected to average right around normal for late August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Lingering cyclonic flow...wrap-around low level moisture and
over-lake instability will continue to produce sct/bkn lake
enhanced low VFR clouds across Northern Michigan overnight into
Thursday. Low clouds will scattered out Thursday afternoon...with
clear skies expected Thursday night as high pressure moves
overhead. N/NW winds will remain AOB 10 kts thru the forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Despite good over-water instability, decreasing pressure
gradient via building high pressure will allow winds to continue
remain below headline criteria through today. Winds really slacken
tonight, with winds remaining light through the remainder of the
week as said high pressure slowly traverses the region.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB


000
ACUS11 KWNS 231914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231914
SCZ000-GAZ000-232045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southern GA and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231914Z - 232045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There is a very small threat for localized wind damage
associated with storms this afternoon. Watch issuance will not be
necessary.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is located just west of the
discussion area. Along and ahead of this boundary, flow throughout
the depth of the troposphere is very weak (e.g., around 10 knots at
500 mb over most of the area), thus, organized storm modes are not
expected. However, ahead of the front, moderate buoyancy is in place
with limited capping owing to diabatic heating of a moist boundary
layer characterized by lower to middle 70s surface dewpoints.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will continue
through the afternoon, focused along the Atlantic sea breeze, the
front, and other weak pre-frontal convergence axes. Most storms that
develop are unlikely to be severe, but there is a small chance that
a couple of storms could briefly produce wind damage with wet
microbursts, given DCAPE upwards of 1000-1250 J/kg. Poor mid-level
lapse rates will greatly temper convective-scale vertical
accelerations, greatly limiting the severe risk amidst weak deep
shear.

..Cohen/Clark/Coniglio/Darrow.. 08/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 31698105 31108135 31018194 31288251 32078275 32978229
33768135 33698029 33367926 32767978 32238071 31698105



000
WUUS53 KAPX 172354
SVRAPX
MIC001-069-180100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0033.170817T2354Z-170818T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
754 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Alcona County in northern Michigan...
Northwestern Iosco County in northern Michigan...

* Until 900 PM EDT

* At 754 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over South Branch,
or 8 miles southwest of Glennie, moving northeast at 20 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Glennie, South Branch, Barton City, Curtisville and Milen Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 8344 4444 8386 4447 8389 4457 8388
4476 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 226DEG 17KT 4451 8386

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH

$$

MLR