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000
FLUS43 KAPX 180848
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-191200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
348 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally dense fog will be seen this morning, primarily south of
M-72.

Fog and freezing drizzle may deposit very light icing on roads
and other surfaces today, mainly this morning.

A wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing drizzle is expected
tonight, especially north of M-72. Light snow accumulations are
expected in eastern upper Michigan. Icy spots could develop again
on some roads in northern lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A light mix of freezing drizzle, light rain and light snow is
possible Tuesday morning which could result in icy road
conditions.

A more significant winter storm may impact northern Michigan
Thursday into Friday. The track of this system is still uncertain
and various types and amounts of precipitation are possible.
Travel may be impacted by this storm and travelers should stay
tuned for later updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

$$

JZ


000
ACUS01 KWNS 180515
SWODY1
SPC AC 180514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from Texas eastward
across portions of the Gulf Coast states today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A split in the flow field aloft will prevail over the U.S. today, as
fast/low-amplitude westerlies persist over the northern half of the
U.S., while an upper low cut-off from the westerlies farther north
drifts slowly eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border.

Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the southeast U.S. ahead of the
slowly advancing upper system, but weak disturbances moving through
the anticyclonic flow field should allow convection -- ongoing at
the start of the period -- to continue through the day over the Gulf
Coast region.

Farther west, a gradual increase in isentropic ascent across Texas
ahead of the upper low should support an increase in potential for
showers and embedded/elevated thunderstorms through the second half
of the period. However, weak instability in all areas should
preclude any appreciable severe potential.

..Goss/Leitman.. 12/18/2017

$$


675
ACUS02 KWNS 180557
SWODY2
SPC AC 180556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...EAST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the middle and
upper Texas Coast Plains on Tuesday afternoon moving across east
Texas Tuesday evening into north-central Louisiana and west-central
Mississippi during the overnight period. A few strong wind gusts and
a marginal tornado threat will be possible.

...Middle to Upper Texas Coastal Plains/East Texas/North-central
Louisiana/West-central Mississippi...
An upper-level trough will move from northern Mexico into southern
and central Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass
will advect northward onto the Texas Coastal Plains. Surface heating
will take place ahead of the upper-level trough as a 30 to 40 kt
low-level jet develops during the day. This should be favorable for
scattered thunderstorms between San Antonio and Houston Tuesday
afternoon. Forecast soundings in this area at 21Z/Tuesday show
MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 kt
range. 0-1 km shear is forecast to be around 30 kt. This environment
should support storm rotation within cells that remain discrete. A
marginal tornado threat or potential for strong wind gusts should
exist with the stronger rotating cells.

Model forecasts move this area of scattered thunderstorms
northeastward across east Texas Tuesday evening and into
north-central Louisiana during the overnight period. By late in the
period, the storms should move into west-central Mississippi. The
environment along this corridor will continue to have weak
instability and strong deep-layer shear favorable for a marginal
severe threat. Although 0-1 km shear will increase some as a
low-level jet strengthens across the region, instability will remain
weak. For this reason, the severe threat should remain marginal with
a potential for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a low-end
chance for a tornado.

..Broyles.. 12/18/2017

$$



255
NWUS53 KAPX 161501
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
12/16/2017 M3.3 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 13 IN.

0800 AM SNOW 2 NW EAST JORDAN 45.18N 85.16W
12/16/2017 M3.6 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 13 IN.

0800 AM SNOW GAYLORD 45.03N 84.67W
12/16/2017 M4.3 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 12 IN.

0800 AM SNOW 3 W LEWISTON 44.88N 84.38W
12/16/2017 M5.0 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 10 IN.

0800 AM SNOW ESE MANCELONA 44.90N 85.06W
12/16/2017 M5.2 INCH ANTRIM MI COCORAHS

24HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 14 IN.

0800 AM SNOW 15 NE GRAYLING 44.81N 84.49W
12/16/2017 M5.0 INCH CRAWFORD MI COCORAHS

24HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 9 IN.


&&

$$

BERGER



000
FXUS63 KAPX 180841
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
341 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

...Milder but still some wintry concerns...

High impact weather potential...light wintry mix in spots today
and tonight. Potential for icy roads. Dense fog in spots along
M-55 this morning.

Warm front has lifted north into central lower MI. Two bands of
fgen- forced precip were impacting the region. One was decaying
over eastern upper MI, producing light snow. The other was more
convective-looking, producing snow showers in central and parts of
northern lower MI. These will all be diminishing during the
morning hours, as a sheared-out shortwave and associated fgen exit
the area. That leaves behind a sludgy airmass, plenty of low
clouds out there, and (south of M-32) some fog. Mainly just
nuisance- type wx today, but things get dicier tonight as a
shortwave moves ese- ward into the northern lakes.

Moist low-levels will maintain plenty of cloud cover today, even as
the mid/upper levels partially dry out behind the departing wave.
Bufr soundings emphasize the general mushy-ness of the situation,
with plenty of moisture below 3k ft, with occasional (cooler)
moist layers poking in and out between 5k and 15k ft. So we might
be able to establish some seeder-feeder processes at times, but
most of the time, this is a potential drizzle/flurry setup. Most
of northern MI will eventually warm above freezing by the end of
the daylight hours, but until then some patchy fzdz will also be
possible.

Fog is presently soupiest in the south, with dense fog at HTL/W
Branch/OSC, while CAD has improved to 1/2SM. With temps in the
mid/upper 20s (though heading upwards), some potential for a touch
of icing on some surfaces. This might also be a favorable zone
for freezing drizzle early on, in between the snow showers that
dot the region early this morning. Gave some thought for a dense
fog headline, but would only be for a few counties, and there`s
some potential for passing pre-dawn snow showers to disrupt fog.
Anticipate writing an SPS shortly to discuss fog and very light
icing potential in southern sections this morning.

Max temps today will eventually reach the mid 30s in most locales.

Tonight, another shortwave pivoting around the Hudson Bay low will
make a run at us. An associated cold front will cross most of
northern MI in the overnight hours. Narrow plume of better
isentropic ascent ahead of this front will contribute to some
precip tonight, especially in northern sections (closer to
stronger height falls). Models have trended a little slower in
breaking out precip, which should start to move into eastern upper
MI by late evening, but will be most expansive between midnight
and 5-6am. Pops will increase to categorical across much of
eastern upper (at least for a period), with likelys sneaking only
a bit south of the Bridge, and chance pops as far south as
Grayling. A warm nose at onset could result in a brief mix of
exotic p-types early on, but otherwise a surface-based warm layer
will determine p-type. That looks to be almost all snow in eastern
upper MI, with some rain mixing in near Lakes MI/Huron. More of a
rain-snow mix in northern lower MI, which will be largely
elevation-dependent (more snow inland, more rain near the coasts).

This is not remotely a freezing rain scenario in the classic sense.
But, given we`ve been in the deep freeze for almost two weeks, there
are concerns that ground/surface temps will not recover as quickly
as air temps today into tonight. That might allow for rain tonight
to freeze on some of our roads, even with air temps above freezing.
Too soon to pop an advisory for this potential, since pops/QPF do
drop off as one heads south into the rain zone. But will mention
the possibility of icy roads overnight in the HWO.

Min temps around 30f to the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

...Turning colder with a little lake effect...

High Impact Weather Potential: Possible icy roads early Tuesday in
some spots.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Chances for lake effect snow.

Steady cold advection Tuesday behind a departing surface cold front.
So after some lingering mixed rain and snow showers early, the lake
effect machine should fire up (at least to a certain extent). Plenty
of over lake instability with lake-850 mb delta ts slowly increasing
to near 20 Tuesday evening. Model soundings across northern lower
however still look fairly unimpressive with inversion heights only
4000-5000 feet. In addition, 850-700 mb rh is only about 55 or 60
percent and it is not centered in the dendritic growth zone. These
parameters are a little more favorable across eastern upper though.
So the bottom line is the expectation is for mainly light lake
effect snow showers in west northwest favored locations from late
Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening with the flow veering into
the northwest for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Accumulations in the couple of inches range expected across northern
lower while eastern upper could push up into the few inch range
(maybe). Slowly falling temperatures through the 30s Tuesday with
highs Wednesday in the colder middle 20s to near 30.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

...Low pressure likely tracks into northern Michigan...

Extended models continue to struggle over the timing/track and
intensity of likely low pressure moving up from the Plains into the
Great Lakes later in the week. Notable trends over the last couple
of days: Slower and farther north. This results in adjustments to
the forecast. The first is to slow down the timing of incoming
mainly light snow chances Wednesday night into much of Thursday. The
second is to add in the likelihood of a mix with and possible change
over to rain Friday into Friday night (though much of eastern upper
could escape the warmer air and remain mostly all snow). Still lots
of uncertainty over the details but this system still has the
potential to disrupt travel (perhaps even in a major way). Colder
air and lake effect is likely to follow at some point Saturday
through the remainder of the weekend (these details are fuzzy too
unfortunately due to moisture/timing differences). It still looks
like another shot of arctic air dives into the region somewhere on
or about Christmas Day making for a rather frigid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 701 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Widespread MVFR cigs dropping to IFR with reduced VSBYS in light
fog this evening and much of the overnight, as low level moisture
deepens across nrn Michigan. Periods of freezing drizzle is also
possible. The low level moisture does thin out with the passage of
a sfc trough overnight, and there should be some fog improvement
into Monday, but doubt the MVFR CIGS will scour out much. Moisture
thickens from aloft Monday night, out ahead of a weak warm front,
resulting in a chance for a mix of light rain/snow mainly around
PLN. Fog is a little unclear right now, but temperatures will be
rising above freezing, as well as dewpoints, and this air over
snowpack could lead to some reduced VSBYS.

Winds just above the ground increase decently Monday night. May
have to consider LLWS in the next TAF issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Southwest winds will be push gale force for parts of today/tonight
on parts of Lake MI, ahead of the cold front that moves thru
overnight. Will evaluate the potential need for gale warnings
later in the morning. Otherwise, advisory-level conditions are
expected ahead of and behind the front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JZ


000
ACUS11 KWNS 152243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152242
NYZ000-PAZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western New York and far northwestern
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 152242Z - 160245Z

SUMMARY...A squall of heavy snow will continue to move ashore areas
near eastern Lake Erie this evening. Thereafter, lake effect snow
bands will develop through the overnight. Snowfall rates upwards of
two inches per hour will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Along the cyclonic flank of a mid-level jet, broad
ascent has fostered the development of a lake-enhanced snow squall
over eastern Lake Erie. This band should gradually move ashore over
the next hour or so, aided by sufficient low-level instability and
convergence. KBUF dual-pol data suggest some enhancement of crystal
growth around -12 to -18 C, with subtle increases in KDP (upwards of
0.4-0.6 deg/km) noted around 5000-6000 ft above radar level.
Therefore, heavy snow is likely as the band continues to move
onshore, and snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour appear
possible. Following the squall, lake-effect bands will likely
organize later this evening, with continued localized heavy snow
expected.

..Picca.. 12/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 42118055 42997924 43347900 43417838 43297826 42687842
42067905 41907963 41838010 41868039 41918050 42118055