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000
FLUS43 KAPX 280712
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
312 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-290715-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
312 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

SMD


000
ACUS01 KWNS 281632
SWODY1
SPC AC 281630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OK
TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHWEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VA AND
NC...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected across the southern Great Plains
including parts of Texas and Oklahoma, especially late this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes are likely.

...Southern Plains...
A combination of 12Z upper-air analysis and water vapor satellite
imagery features an east/southeastward-digging shortwave trough over
southeast AZ/southwest NM at late morning, with a preceding belt of
40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds overspreading eastern NM and
west TX. These south-southwesterly mid-level winds will continue to
advect a stout elevated mixed layer east-northeastward today atop an
increasingly moist sector ahead of a dryline and upstream Pacific
front. Regional 12Z soundings and upper-air analysis featured 7.7+
C/km 700-500mb lapse rates across all of west TX, while around 14
g/kg mean mixing ratios were noted at Del Rio and Corpus Christi TX,
with 850 mb dewpoints of 12C+ as far north as Midland/Dallas-Fort
Worth.

Initially, increasing elevated storms may pose a severe hail risk
early this afternoon across the TX panhandle/northwest TX. Reference
Mesoscale Discussion 350 for additional short-term details.

To the east of the dryline, low clouds remain prevalent at late
morning, although a relatively narrow upper dry slot continues to
steady approach west Texas and low clouds are steadily eroding
across the Permian Basin vicinity. As additional moistening/heating
occurs, moderate to strong destabilization with minimal inhibition
is expected particularly near the surface low/warm
front/dryline-related triple point across the TX south Plains/low
rolling plains, southward to near/east of the dryline as it extends
into the Permian Basin vicinity. Here, aforementioned moisture/lapse
rates should yield MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg.

Current thinking is that at least isolated surface-based severe
storms will develop near the triple point vicinity by around
mid/late afternoon, with additional development possible near the
dry line. Although current (late morning) cloud cover casts some
uncertainty, a somewhat displaced corridor of warm-conveyor-related
storms are expected by late afternoon/early evening farther east
across additional parts of western north TX into southwest OK.
Initially discrete supercell mode should favor large hail and
localized severe wind gusts. Although the upper flow pattern will
become increasingly meridional with time (with general tendency of
backing mid-level winds), and a more linear/mixed mode should evolve
during the evening, enlarged low-level hodographs will support the
potential for tornadoes through at least early/mid-evening. Linear
bands should accelerate northeast into southern/central Oklahoma
during the evening, with attendant risks for damaging winds, hail,
and a couple tornadoes.

Farther south across west-central/southwest TX including the Edwards
Plateau, initially isolated late afternoon/early evening storms near
the dryline should become widespread in coverage during mid/late
evening as the Pacific front merges and overtakes the dryline. This
should result in a predominant risk to large hail transitioning
quickly to strong to severe wind gusts. An extensive squall line
will likely evolve east overnight with at least an isolated severe
risk spreading eastward into central TX including the Hill
Country/Interstate 35 corridor late tonight.

...VA/NC...
A dampening shortwave impulse over WV will shift off the VA/NC coast
by mid-evening. Ongoing showers and isolated storms will subdue
destabilization early in the diurnal heating cycle. However, by late
afternoon, widely scattered storms should develop ahead of the
impulse. Increased veering of the wind profile with height should
foster mainly discrete cells, some of which should weakly rotate.
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 03/28/2017

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 281742
SWODY2
SPC AC 281741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...EAST TX AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND SOUTHERN IL TO
THE MIDDLE TX COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night
from parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas
into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move steadily east across the
southern half of the Great Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night
toward the lower and middle MS Valley, while an embedded closed
midlevel cyclone tracks from northwest TX into OK and KS. An
upstream shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward from the
southwest states through northern Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande
Valley late Wednesday night. At the surface, an elongated area of
low pressure is expected to extend from southwest OK to
south-central/southeast KS at 12Z Wednesday, with models suggesting
low pressure will tend to consolidate and reach southwest MO region
by 12Z Thursday. A cold front/dryline is forecast to extend
southward through central OK to deep south TX at the start of day 2.
This front will shift slowly east into eastern OK and east TX by
Wednesday afternoon. A warm front will move north across much of AR
and the Mid-South, reaching southeast KS, southern MO to western TN
by 30/00Z. A secondary cold front surging to the east/southeast
across the southern Plains should overtake the lead cold front late
Wednesday night and extend from western AR to off the TX coast by
12Z Thursday.

...Southern Plains to lower-mid MS Valley...
Models continue to indicate the widespread thunderstorms across the
southern Plains tonight should diminish in intensity and severe
threat Wednesday morning over east TX, east OK into southeast KS to
southwest MO. Midlevel impulses translating through the eastern
periphery of the closed low Wednesday morning and afternoon should
support renewed storm development/intensification from parts of
northeast TX through eastern OK to southeast KS along the first cold
front. Greater destabilization on the northern extent has resulted
in a little northward expansion of the Slight risk area. Although
strong shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the cold front
suggest a linear storm mode, the strength of the bulk shear /50+ kt/
and moderate instability support embedded supercells. Thus, all
severe hazards will be possible, except farther north into northeast
KS where storms should remain elevated.

Meanwhile, the next in a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will
move toward the Ark-La-Tex region Wednesday evening and night, and
strong 500-mb 2-hour height falls of 60-90 meters are expected
across the Ark-La-Tex and eastern OK to the lower and mid MS Valley.
Additional storms will develop across east TX Wednesday afternoon
where the environment will be moderately unstable with strengthening
effective bulk shear resulting in organized storms producing all
severe hazards. A 50+ southerly low-level jet developing Wednesday
evening and shifting east after dark will increase the severe-
weather threat resulting in a risk of supercells and bowing
structures producing tornadoes (possibly strong), as well as large
hail and damaging winds.

...Middle TX Coast to Deep South TX...
The southern extent of the first cold front is expected to move
offshore Wednesday morning of the middle and southern TX coast,
though moisture return in expected Wednesday night with the approach
of the digging shortwave trough and the approach of the secondary
cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates spreading atop the moisture
return will support moderate instability, with a few strong to
severe storms possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
as the cold front reaches the middle and south TX coastal region.

..Peters.. 03/28/2017

$$


040
NWUS53 KAPX 261157
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW GLADWIN 43.98N 84.50W
03/26/2017 M1.00 INCH GLADWIN MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION
GLADWIN /GLAM4/.


&&

$$

SWR




304
FXUS63 KAPX 281806
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
206 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Main forecast issue with this update is the lingering low
stratocumulus across the area. The 12Z APX sounding shows an
influx of drier air from about 850mb upward, though the moist
inversion beneath has allowed these low clouds to stubbornly hang
on longer than originally expected. Latest visible imagery does
reveal some thinning between cloud bands within the last hour
(especially over northeast Lower), and expect this trend will
become more accelerated heading into midday. This should
eventually give way to a mostly sunny afternoon across the area.
Otherwise no significant changes were made to the existing
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, several upper troughs seen on satellite. One
working off the New England coast, another crossing the Ohio valley,
one over Hudson Bay, one drifting across the Dakotas and finally,
one working out of the srn Rockies. The srn conus waves were all
associated with showers and storms, with just some spotty light
rains/showers in North Dakota. Nrn Michigan was quiet with only some
low level clouds and patchy fog ahead of a weak sfc ridge of high
pressure over western Lake Superior and MN. Temperatures were locked
in the lower to middle 30s. There was a nice wedge of drier low
level air and mostly clear skies being fed southward from srn
Ontario in the northerly flow ahead of the weak ridge of sfc high
pressure.

Not really much in the way of weather through tonight. The low level
drier air within the northerly flow will feed down into the region,
clear out the clouds, and finally bring nrn Michigan some sunshine.
Only the weak Dakotas trough will bring some higher level clouds
along with some possible shallow cumulus. High temperatures will
range from the lower 40s in eastern upper to the upper 40s and low
50s M-72 south. Deep dry air holds through tonight, with good
radiational cooling resulting in low to middle 20s. Those colder low
lying areas making it into the teens. Also, wonder about possible
fog development. Nothing see attm upstream, but patchy fog is
certainly possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Precipitation chances return Thursday through early Friday...

High impact weather potential: Minimal, although a bit of
accumulating snow is possible Thursday night.

Pattern Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging is expected to be evident
across the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning with associated
Canadian surface high pressure nosing in from the north resulting in
quiet conditions, some sunshine, and near-normal temperatures. At
the same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident
across the Intermountain West, which is progged to result in
cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies ejecting toward the Great Lakes
Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next threat
for sensible weather across northern Michigan before high pressure
returns once again next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Primary forecast concerns and challenges
revolve around the evolution of Thursday`s system, but not before
fairly pleasant spring-like weather is the main feature for
Wednesday. Partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures
ranging from near 40 north to the mid 40s south of the bridge will
be the rule.

Forecast focus quickly turns to Thursday as aforementioned
developing low pressure moves toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley late
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to result in
high confidence with respect to a storm system across the midsection
of the country, but low confidence in the details as latest trends
over the past 24 hours have shifted the storm system considerably
further south with the highest precip chances limited to along and
south of the M-32 corridor. Will continue with a middle of the road
approach at this juncture, as did the previous shift, simply due to
a lack of confidence to make wholesale forecast changes in one
direction or another. This results in increasing PoPs from southwest
to northeast across northern Lower Michigan throughout the day
Thursday, with likely PoPs confined to locations south of M-55
during the afternoon hours before spreading northeastward during the
evening and overnight. P-type issues also come into question early
Thursday morning (depending on how quick initial precip is able to
arrive) and again Thursday night, but will almost be solely based on
the depth of the near-surface warm layer, which fittingly remains in
question as a wide range of possibilities exist via the latest
forecast soundings. Gut feeling is that p-type remains primarily
rain during the day Thursday thanks to a lack of deep-layer cold air
and late March diurnal processes, perhaps bounded briefly by a few
wet snowflakes across far southwestern areas early Thursday morning
and across a larger section of northern Lower Thursday night. A
minor accumulation of an inch or two of wet snow in some spots
Thursday night seems feasible, especially as the main slug of
moisture pushes across the area. The system continues to progress
eastward early Friday morning with the majority of precip having
ended by the midday hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Thursday-Thursday night`s precip diminishes Friday morning, expected
to come to an end by the midday hours. Broad west-northwesterly flow
takes hold across the Great Lakes over the weekend with a weak wave
or two sliding across southern Canada. This may bring a period or
two of mixed precip over the weekend, more specifically Saturday
night into early Sunday; however, most of the extended period is
expected to be dry with above normal temperatures continuing. Beyond
that, signals continue to suggest a more sizable storm impacting a
portion of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes during the early to middle
portion of next week. At this point, looks like all rain with
perhaps well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Low stratocu has rapidly scoured out across northern Michigan. VFR
conditions for the rest of today with just some passing cirrus as
high pressure builds into the region. With mostly clear skies
and light winds overnight, would start to think about possibility
of some br. However, we`ll also be dealing with encroaching drier
low level air that is expected to limit fog/mist potential.
Wouldn`t entirely rule out some br, but if it does develop,
KMBL/KTVC/KPLN would have the best chance for perhaps MVFR
visibilities. Winds will remain light through the period, becoming
more northeasterly on Wednesday along with increasing cirrus.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Things look quiet through Thursday as sfc higher pressure noses into
the Great Lakes from Canada. Northerly winds and drier air will
clear out skies today, before the high departs and winds turn east
Wednesday into Thursday. This will be out ahead of the next low
pressure system which brings a chance of rain for Thursday. Winds
will be sub-advisory through this time period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEK
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MEK
MARINE...SMD



000
ACUS11 KWNS 281850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281850
TXZ000-NMZ000-282115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281850Z - 282115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. A threat for hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be possible. WW issuance is not expected due to the marginal
nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low in far
southeastern New Mexico with an inverted surface trough extending
north northwestward across eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms are
developing in the vicinity of Santa Rosa, New Mexico just to the
west of the surface trough where low-level convergence appears to be
maximized. This combined with strong large-scale ascent downstream
from an upper-level low in the Desert Southwest will help storm
coverage to increase across eastern New Mexico this afternoon. The
environment is characterized by strong deep-layer shear (evident on
the Tucumcari WSR-88D VWP), steep lapse rates and enough instability
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the stronger cores over the next two to three
hours. Instability appears weak enough to keep the threat marginal.
For that reason, WW issuance will probably not be needed.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33650300 33330403 33510503 34350526 35370509 35960472
36200404 36180369 36090335 35580301 34690282 33650300