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000
FLUS43 KAPX 202340
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
740 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-211200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
740 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

With the warm temperatures and gusty winds expect elevated fire
danger Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 210556
SWODY1
SPC AC 210554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected especially across
portions of the south-central Plains late this afternoon and
evening, with very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and northern
Intermountain Region Friday evening will continue to dig/amplify
from the northern/central High Plains this morning toward the
central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest by early Sunday. An
east/southeastward-moving cold front will be a primary focus for
severe thunderstorm development later today, with a frontal wave and
dryline also factors across the southern Plains.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An active second-season severe-weather day is expected across the
region by late afternoon and evening. Ample moisture and moderate
buoyancy, especially by mid/late October standards, will support
intense thunderstorm development during the mid/late afternoon hours
into evening as upper trough-related forcing for ascent overspreads
the frontal zone. Low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints, as
currently found across much of OK/TX, will become increasingly
established by afternoon northward across eastern KS into far
eastern NE, IA, and southern MN.

It seems likely that storms will initially develop and increase
during the mid/late afternoon (roughly 21Z-23Z) near the
east/southeastward-moving cold front spanning far eastern NE/western
IA and northeast/south-central KS into northern/western OK. While a
couple of initial supercells capable of hail could occur, a
relatively quick transition to a linear mode seems likely within
this corridor in vicinity of the advancing cold front with damaging
winds becoming the main concern.

Farther south, a somewhat greater spatiotemporal window for
semi-discrete supercells will likely exist across southern OK into
western north TX where deep-layer shear vectors will be somewhat
more line-normal oriented. Current thinking is the most probable
semi-discrete-supercell-related very large hail and potential for a
couple of tornadoes should be focused across
southwest/west-central/south-central OK in vicinity of the surface
low/dryline-related triple point between 22Z-02Z.

Quasi-linear bands of storms will be increasingly prevalent through
the mid/late evening hours with damaging winds being the primary
hazard, although a couple of tornadoes cannot ruled out across
central into eastern OK with any line-embedded circulations amid
adequate low-level shear/SRH. These linearly organized storms should
otherwise tend to gradually weaken during the overnight hours as
they move into south-central MO/west-central AR/southeast OK and the
Ark-La-Tex region.

...Upper Midwest...
Although low-level moisture and buoyancy will be considerably more
limited into the Upper Midwest including parts of IA into MN/western
WI, strong south-southwesterly deep-layer winds (850mb winds around
40 kt) will promote relatively shallow linear/bowing segments that
rapidly spread north-northeast. The strongest convection during the
evening hours may be capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado.

...West-central/southwest TX...
While the coverage/likelihood of storm development along the dryline
is not certain, a few supercells capable of large hail cannot be
ruled out during the late afternoon and early evening from the Low
Rolling Plains south-southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau and
Big Bend vicinity. A more likely scenario will be for increased
storm coverage later this evening into the overnight as the cold
front overtakes the dryline with some hail and wind being possible.

..Guyer/Cook.. 10/21/2017

$$


071
ACUS02 KWNS 210446
SWODY2
SPC AC 210445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
At this time, the risk for severe storms appears negligible across
the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will
undergo considerable amplification through this period across the
Pacific into western North America. This appears likely to include
building upper ridging near the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast, to the north of increasingly prominent subtropical ridging
across the lower latitude eastern Pacific and much of southwestern
North America.

Downstream of the building ridge, larger-scale troughing appears
likely to continue to develop eastward across central Canada and
adjacent portions of the north central United States. Within this
regime, one significant short wave perturbation may dig through the
international border area and northern U.S. Plains, while another
pivots through the Hudson/James Bay region, accompanied by a deep
surface cyclone.

Much more uncertainty persists with another initially digging short
wave impulse, which is generally forecast to split away from the
northern cyclonic regime, before turning eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley. Rather large spread remains readily evident
among the models and within the ensemble output of the various
models concerning this latter feature.

...South central U.S...
One low-level southward surge of cooler air in the wake of the
Hudson/James Bay cyclone is expected to reach the Ozark Plateau and
southern Plains by 12Z Sunday, before continuing southeastward
through the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Gulf Coast region.
Of particularly note, seasonably high moisture content air seems
likely to continue to advect inland off the Gulf of Mexico in a
corridor along/ahead the front. This may provide potential for weak
to moderate boundary layer destabilization by Sunday afternoon,
despite the presence of generally weak mid-level lapse rates ahead
of the mid-level cold core, which is expected to lag to the west of
the front. Coupled with the potential for modest strengthening of
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, an environment becoming
conducive to localized pockets of strong/severe storm development
may not be completely out of the question, mainly across parts of
southeast Texas, Louisiana, and perhaps Mississippi. However, at
least some guidance is suggestive that the front, or pre-frontal
outflow associated with weakening convection, may surge through much
of this region fairly early in the day. Given this complication, in
conjunction with the previously noted sizable spread within the
model output, the risk for severe storms still appears negligible
through this period (i.e. less than 5 percent).

..Kerr.. 10/21/2017

$$



629
NWUS53 KAPX 182029
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
429 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 13 ENE OSCODA 44.50N 83.10W
10/18/2017 M40 MPH LHZ363 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION WZE4539, 12 ENE OSCODA.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 210351
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1151 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Another quiet night with just some passing high level clouds.
Maintenance of southwest winds will make for one unseasonably
mild night, with readings by morning only falling into the lower
and middle 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Another Warm Night Followed by Above Normal Day ...

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated Fire Danger with Warm
temperatures and gusty winds this afternoon, and Saturday
afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Models suggesting that the current sfc
high that is over the Mid-Atlantic states, will continue there for
another day. With the high over the same area for the next 24
hours, will expect that the return flow will continue over
Michigan keeping the heat going for another day, and beginning to
moisten the low levels as the moisture moves north out of the Gulf
of Mexico. This should raise the minimum RH values for Saturday
afternoon, however, with the temperatures still around 75F and the
winds expected to be gusty Saturday afternoon, will expect that
elevated fire danger will still be needed for Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...One thing that is a bit bothersome
about the forecast is that the mixing that the models progged in
the soundings this morning has not turned out, especially near the
Lake Michigan shore where the winds have stayed sustained below 10
knots, and hardly a gust. This has then shown up in the dewpoint
and RH fields with some areas not falling as much as progged this
morning. So will ease back a bit on the mixing for Saturday, and
will expect higher RH values for the afternoon. However, most of
the area will still see consistent wind gusts over 15 mph, and
temperatures around 75F, so will expect to have some elevated
fire danger for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A large scale upper trough in the central plains Saturday night,
will slide into the western great Lakes and southern plains Sunday,
before the upper flow splits Sunday into Sunday night. The srn
branch closes off while the nrn stream continues eastward into our
neck of the woods Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, along with
the system`s cold front. Rain chances are pretty good, with hints of
upper divergence in right entrance region of a 100+kt upper jet,
DPVA and low level convergence with PWATS increasing to 1.50".
Thunder likely no, as steeper lapse rates will be well out ahead of
the better forcing, and with no CAPE expected. Stronger shortwave
energy dives into the backside of the nrn branch and carves out
sharper troughing. Low pressure develops along the U.S. Canadian
border and tracks into the nrn Great Lakes Monday, along with it`s
cold front. The deeper moisture and stronger forcing will be with
the srn branch, which may be too far east of us, while this next
cold front would be moving into our atmosphere which may
subsequently be too dried out. Thus, precipitation chances look
rather small. Temperatures will remain warm Sunday ahead of the
initial cold front in the mid 60s to lower 70s, cooling off to the
upper 50s to lower 60s Monday, which is still above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Depending on the exact placement of the srn branch`s deeper moisture
and forcing and possible phasing with our nrn branch (which will be
closing off overhead), will play a big role in our weather starting
Monday night. If too far east, chances for synoptic rain will be
less in our drier air mass, despite the nrn branch closing off
directly over lower Michigan (which would lead to potential
diurnally driven showers underneath a cold pool/steep lapse rates
aloft). Either way, we are still looking for lake effect showers. H8
temps fall to 0C to as cold as -4C late Monday night into Wednesday
with more than sufficient overlake instability. Maybe even some
snowflakes for the higher terrain of nrn lower? Warming/moderation
ensues Thursday, ahead of the next expected front approaching us on
Thursday. High temperatures will gradually fall to near normal over

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

More wind shear across all taf locations through early this
morning, and again this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions to
prevail with no vis restrictions and only some passing high and
mid level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
States will continue to produce a strong pressure gradient over
Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay tonight. However, little mixing
over the lakes are expected as the temperatures above the surface
are warmer than the lake temperatures. So will expect that
tonight some of the gusts will remain a little lower overnight,
before creeping up again on Saturday. However, Saturday night, the
winds will probably increase some as the gradient tightens as the
next cold front moves towards the Upper Great Lakes. The winds
will diminish on Sunday as the front moves through, and the
gradient slackens.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...JL


000
ACUS11 KWNS 192021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192020
NMZ000-TXZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Areas affected...southwest New Mexico into a portion of far western
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192020Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms will remain capable of producing a few
instances of downburst winds and hail through early evening. Overall
threat is marginal, and coverage of severe events is not expected to
become sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed to near 80F with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s in the presence of boundary-layer
mixing, boosting MLCAPE to 400-800 J/kg. Storms over southern NM
have increased in overall intensity during the last hour, and
further increase in coverage may occur as forcing for ascent
attendant to a progressive shortwave trough over AZ spreads into
western NM. No substantial increase in winds aloft is expected with
the approach of the impulse, and vertical shear will remain weak and
supportive of multicells. Nevertheless, the thermodynamic
environment with steep lapse rates and inverted-v boundary layers
will continue to promote a risk for a few instances of downburst
winds and hail through early evening.

..Dial.. 10/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31800602 31970707 32370817 33530845 33830682 33460584
32500539 31800602