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000
FLUS43 KAPX 240405
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1159 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-241200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
1159 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

River flooding is possible on portions of the Rifle and Tobacco
River systems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are again possible across portions of the outlook area
Saturday through Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
Severe storms are not anticipated.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

MSB/SMD/TBA/MJG/JZ


000
ACUS01 KWNS 240601
SWODY1
SPC AC 240559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY OVER
PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
over portions of the Southeast on Saturday, with isolated severe
hail and strong winds over parts of New Mexico. Isolated damaging
winds and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across southern
New England Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...
Within a broad cyclonic mid-level flow regime from the
central/northern Plains east to the northeast U.S., a notable
embedded impulse will move southeast across the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes on Saturday. In response, slight amplification of the
upper-level trough will occur and an increase in mid-level flow will
occur across the Carolinas/portions of the mid-Atlantic region.
Farther west, an upper-level anticyclone will strengthen in the
vicinity of the Arizona/Mexico border. A surface cold front will
extend near the New England coast southwest across the Carolinas,
and west through the lower Mississippi Valley/central Texas and then
curving north across the high terrain of New Mexico Saturday
afternoon. A very moist (upper 60s/lower 70s surface dew points)
air mass will remain in place south of the frontal boundary.

...Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass along and south of the
front will result in pockets of moderate MLCAPE by afternoon, and
moderate southwesterly flow aloft will result in 30-40 kts of
effective shear. Despite generally weak low-level flow, updraft
water loading in the presence of PW values in excess of 2 inches
should result in isolated strong/damaging gusts with the strongest
storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

...New Mexico...
Southeasterly low-level flow will continue to transport increasing
moisture into the high terrain Saturday, and areas of moderate
surface-based instability will develop during the afternoon.
Thunderstorms developing near the Continental Divide in the presence
of 20-35 kts of northwest mid-level flow may become sufficiently
organized with mid-level rotation to pose a risk for isolated large
hail. In addition, the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer will
promote a risk for damaging winds.

...Coastal southern New England early...
Forecast soundings depict strong low-level wind fields and
unidirectional flow in advance of the front during the morning
hours, in part due to a notable southerly low-level jet from near
the mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England. Although
instability will be meager, some high-res guidance continues to
suggest a potential for short line segments near the immediate
coast, and will introduce a focused area with low severe
probabilities for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into central Texas...
Although mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be generally weak
across this area, at least some potential for strong/severe storms
may exist during the afternoon as storms diurnally intensify in the
vicinity of the front or perhaps along remnant outflow from prior
convection. With moderate instability expected to develop, severe
probabilities may be introduced in later outlooks where confidence
in greater storm coverage increases.

..Bunting/Mosier.. 06/24/2017

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 240426
SWODY2
SPC AC 240424

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND INTO THE EL PASO TEXAS
AREA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with hail or wind are possible over New
Mexico into southeast Colorado and far west Texas Sunday afternoon.
General thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from Texas across the
immediate Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, and across the Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain situated from the
northern Plains across the Great lakes and into the Northeast, with
an upper ridge nudging eastward toward the Great Basin. High
pressure will keep conditions dry over most of the central/northern
Plains eastward across the OH/TN valleys, with a moist air mass to
the south of a weak front stretching from the coastal Carolinas
across the central Gulf Coast and into north Texas. Southeasterly
surface flow will maintain 50s dewpoints into the southern High
Plains where a few severe thunderstorms are probable.

...New Mexico, southeast Colorado, far west Texas...
Instability on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected to develop
due to heating and the presence of 50s dewpoints. Storms are likely
to form after 21Z from western NM into south central CO, and develop
and propagate southeastward. Weak but veering winds with height may
prove sufficient for a few long-lived cells capable of hail, with
outflow also producing isolated severe wind gusts.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A moist and unstable air mass will remain along the coastal
Carolinas and into southeast Georgia during the afternoon, and
strong heating will aid in the development of up to 2000 J/kg
MUCAPE. However, lapse rates aloft will be weak. Sufficient
convergence near the sea-breeze/front will likely yield scattered
afternoon storms. Shear profiles will remain weak in the lower
portion of the troposphere, but ample precipitable water may lead to
isolated strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 06/24/2017

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 231910
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN STERLING 44.03N 84.02W
06/23/2017 M1.80 INCH ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL.


&&

$$

MJG



150
FXUS63 KAPX 240807
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Sunny early but more clouds/showers as day progresses...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of ongoing hydrologic
issues.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 03z surface/composite analysis shows
Michigan sandwiched between a pair of fronts...a northeast-southwest
oriented cold front stretched from the lower Great Lakes into the
Tennessee Valley...a second front was draped across northern Ontario
to the north of Lake Superior. Much drier air has spread across the
area in the wake of the downstream cold front...with dew points
Friday afternoon falling into the upper 30s/40s inland from the
Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of mid level
"weakness" spinning around the vicinity of the upper Great Lakes.
One short wave trough was moving through Lower Michigan into Lake
Huron...with a pair of vorticity centers over Minnesota... another
north of Lake Superior...and a larger upper low digging into North
Dakota. Post-cold frontal drying evident in 00z APX sounding with a
deep (nearly up to 700mb) mixed layer...but colder mid level
temperatures upstream allowing from some skinny instability in
INL/YPL soundings along a low level theta-e ridge axis that
stretches from northern Illinois back to the northwest into the
northwest Ontario/southern Manitoba.

Upper low dropping into North Dakota is expected to spin across the
upper Midwest today...which will also push aforementioned vorticity
center over northern Minnesota east as well. Upper low will make
its way into Lower Michigan tonight...while boundary to the north of
Lake Superior sags across the lake and possibly into the Upper
Peninsula.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Mainly cloud and shower chances today
with cooling mid level temperatures and approaching short wave
trough and upper low. The former feature is already pushing another
mid cloud deck (and a few spotty radar returns) across Wisconsin/
western Upper Michigan and will spread into western Lower Michigan
later this morning. Could be a few spits of rain with this initial
cloud cover later this morning into northwest Lower...but does
appear there will be an additional diurnal component to cloud cover
today...especially across northern Lower...where some skinny
instability will help generate some showers during the afternoon. A
little less certain across eastern Upper with regard to
instability...though Lake Michigan/Huron breeze may serve as a focus
for showers probably only across Mackinac county. Should also be a
risk for thunder especially south of M-32 this afternoon...with
diurnal shower coverage decreasing this evening. But with the
approaching upper low...fairly deep layer deformation axis expected
to set up across Upper Michigan which is expected to focus a
continued threat for showers into tonight. Will probably also see
some additional showers with the arrival of the primary mid level
circulation and associated dynamics.

From a hydrologic standpoint...rivers in the Rifle and Tobacco River
basins still running high due to recent rainfall. Rifle River near
Sterling has leveled off and is running below the current forecast
so will have to evaluate ongoing warning. Tobacco River at
Beaverton also appears to be cresting just below flood stage
(upstream gauge on the South Branch Tobacco River near Beaverton
also leveling off less than a foot below record stage). Additional
rainfall today/tonight may slow the recession but outside of a slow
moving cell falling over the right part of a basin...not expecting
additional rainfall to cause a big rise in river levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Continued cool with showers and perhaps a few storms...

High Impact Weather Potential...A few non-severe thunderstorms
possible Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Sunday into Monday, Michigan will be in
line for a one-two punch of potent shortwaves/vort maxes rotating
around a broad longwave trough entrenched over the Great Lakes. The
first will exit the Thumb by Sunday afternoon while the second takes
a more southerly dive towards Lake Erie on Monday. Closer to the
surface, a weak cold front will drop south from Ontario on Sunday,
followed by a weak low with somewhat of a short-lived frontal
boundary that move across northern Lower Sunday night into Monday.
These features will generate showers and possibly some afternoon
thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.

The parent longwave trough will be quite deep with 500 mb heights
falling to around 558 dam over northern Michigan on Monday...about 2
to 3 standard deviations below the mean for late June. Temperatures
aloft from 925 to 700 mb will also be around 2 to 3 standard
deviations below. So, expect a progressive cool down to continue
through the start of the work week as persistent NW flow advects
cooler air into the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s on
Sunday and generally a couple degrees colder on Monday. Sunday
night`s lows will drop into the mid/upper 40s inland to around 50
near the shores.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain and thunder chances will be the
main forecast challenge. Lapse rates above 600 mb are looking a
little weaker for Sunday and Monday, and PWATs will be around 0.8"
or a little less. Given general NW flow pattern, expect the better
diurnal instability will be over northeast Lower, though we`re only
talking several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE at most. So, while
ingredients will be sufficient for scattered to perhaps numerous
showers (particularly during the daytime hours), expect any
thunderstorms that may develop to be pretty isolated, weak, and
short-lived...especially given the absence of deep layer shear.
Northern Lower will see the best forcing and hence higher PoPs than
eastern Upper.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High impact weather potential...Thunderstorms possible at times
Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

Upper trough and unseasonably cool airmass finally eject to the east
Monday night with heights rising through midweek as upstream ridge
makes quick progress towards the Great Lakes. Increasing subsidence
from this ridge and a surface high will lead to a period of dry
weather that will likely continue through Wednesday morning. The
remainder of the forecast period looks rather active and wet as
models track several developing lows from the Central/Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes, interacting with a potentially very
moist airmass. Being this far out, plenty of questions to still be
answered, but periods of showers and storms are looking increasingly
likely for northern Michigan through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1159 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR. Sct showers/isolated t-storms Sat afternoon/evening.

Cold front is downstream of MI, crossing the eastern lakes this
evening. Cooler/drier air is entering the region on nw-erly
breezes. VFR conditions will prevail. Cooler air also spills in
aloft on Saturday, resulting in enough instability to produce some
showers/t-storms by afternoon. Best chance for this will be in ne
lower MI (APN) where VCSH is mentioned.

W to nw breezes thru the forecast.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Winds not expected to be significant this weekend as gradient
will be relatively weak. Lake breezes likely to pop along
northeast Lower and southeast Upper shoreline this afternoon. A
little more persistent west/northwest wind expected for Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB



000
ACUS11 KWNS 240525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240525 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-240715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240525Z - 240715Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE WSR-88D VWP REFERENCE TO ROANOKE, VIRGINIA

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat may develop across central
North Carolina over the few hours. However, the threat is expected
to remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows the remnants of Cindy moving
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. A couple
bands of convection are ongoing across western Virginia extending
southward into western North Carolina. The airmass ahead of this
convection is very moist with surface dewpoints in the 70s F across
much of North Carolina which is resulting in a corridor of moderate
instability across the Piedmont of North Carolina. MLCAPE values are
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from near the NC-SC
stateline extending northeastward into southeastern Virginia. In
addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Roanoke, VA shows a strong deep-layer
shear profile with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 kt and substantial speed
shear in the lowest 1km AGL. This appears representative of the
environment in central North Carolina and may support an isolated
wind damage threat as the line segment moves eastward into central
North Carolina over the next couple of hours. The latest CAM
solutions suggest that the line that is currently in west-central
North Carolina may persist for a couple more hours and then weaken.
This seems reasonable and weather watch issuance remains unlikely
due to the short duration that is expected for any wind damage
threat.

..Broyles/Dial.. 06/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35007822 34747989 34798055 35228086 35988002 36407917
36097801 35007822



876
WUUS53 KAPX 200033
SVRAPX
MIC001-129-135-200130-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0019.170620T0033Z-170620T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
833 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Alcona County in northern Michigan...
Northeastern Ogemaw County in northern Michigan...
Southeastern Oscoda County in northern Michigan...

* Until 930 PM EDT

* At 833 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mack Lake, or
near Mio, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
McKinley, Lupton, Curtisville and Mack Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4451 8385 4451 8389 4448 8389 4440 8400
4457 8413 4472 8402 4459 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 314DEG 12KT 4462 8404

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MLR