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000
FLUS43 KAPX 230726
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-241000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
326 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon across
northern lower Michigan...south of M-32. Severe storms are not
anticipated.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 230603
SWODY1
SPC AC 230600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are forecast across portions of
southern and eastern Texas today. Severe risk also exists across
portions of the Southeast, focused on the southern half of Georgia
and adjacent portions of southeast Alabama and southeast South
Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will continue affecting the central and eastern
U.S., as it digs slowly southeastward with time. Multiple
disturbances will rotate through the cyclonic flow field, promoting
multiple areas of convection.

At the surface, a nearly stationary front will linger from the
Carolinas west-southwest across the Gulf coastal areas and into
south Texas, and the front will again serve as a focus for
widespread convection through the period.

...South Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain...
Diurnal heating of a moist airmass residing over south Texas near
the remnant front will occur, which will support moderate afternoon
destabilization. Resulting instability will fuel development of
multiple bands of eastward- to southeastward-moving thunderstorms as
ascent increases through the afternoon in conjunction with mid-level
height falls ahead of a short-wave trough digging into the southern
Plains.

Greatest risk -- mainly in the form of large hail -- appears to
exist across south Texas, but may extend northward across parts of
the mid and upper Coastal Plain. Several bands of storms are
expected to traverse the area through the afternoon and evening,
before storms shift into the western Gulf and lower Mississippi
Valley through midnight.

...The Southeast...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are progged to be moving across
the southeast U.S. through the early morning hours, along the
stalled surface front. While the ongoing clouds/precipitation will
likely hinder destabilization potential as weak lapse rates combined
with limited heating, enough diurnal CAPE development is expected --
at least locally -- to support an early- to mid-afternoon increase
in storm activity.

Convective development will likely be aided by a zone of
quasi-geostrophic ascent currently crossing the central Gulf Coast
region and expected to spread across GA and SC during the afternoon.
With enhanced deep-layer southwest flow, potential for locally
damaging winds is evident with stronger storms/bands of storms. An
isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out, where locally backed
surface winds may exist ahead of a weak frontal wave accompanying
the zone of ascent. Storms may shift northeastward into the evening
toward the North Carolina Outer Banks, and thus have expanded 5%
probability for wind across coastal North Carolina.

..Goss.. 05/23/2017

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
FLORIDA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across
much of Florida, central and eastern Georgia, and southern South
Carolina. More isolated severe storms will be possible from portions
of eastern Alabama northeast into North Carolina.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will move southeast over the mid-Mississippi
Valley Wednesday while a trough of low pressure rotates around the
upper low across the southeast U.S. This will result in
strengthening mid-level flow across Florida and the southeast U.S.
Surface low pressure over the Tennessee Valley region will deepen as
it lifts north towards the lower Great Lakes. A trailing
occluded/cold front will move east through the southeast states
while a warm front lifts north across the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states...
South/southwest low-level flow of a seasonably moist air mass will
result in mid 60s to lower 70s surface dew points across much of
warm sector Wednesday. Widespread cloud cover and precipitation is
likely early in the day from the northern Florida peninsula north
into the Carolinas associated with a lead upper-level impulse, with
pockets of more robust heating/destabilization expected during the
afternoon. Weak/locally moderate surface-based instability combined
with strengthening wind fields/ample effective shear will result in
a favorable environment for severe storms including linear and
supercell modes.

Diurnal intensification of ongoing storms and new storm development
should occur along the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening as
height falls/large-scale forcing for ascent overspreads the
pre-frontal air mass. A linear storm mode should eventually be
favored with damaging winds possible, and the stronger storms may
also produce large hail given the magnitude of deep-layer shear and
cool mid-level temperatures. Strengthening low-level wind fields
during the evening will result in at least some potential for a
tornado or two. Guidance is suggestive of a weak secondary surface
low developing along the front in the vicinity of the western
Carolinas during the late afternoon/evening, which would potentially
result in backed low-level winds and a more favorable hodograph for
low-level storm rotation with any discrete storms that may form. The
severe threat should continue to progress across much of peninsular
Florida Wednesday night with a continued risk for severe wind and
hail.

..Bunting.. 05/23/2017

$$


813
NWUS53 KAPX 211432
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E TURNER 44.13N 83.69W
05/21/2017 M1.08 INCH ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 12
HOURS.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 231043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Unsettled weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...A few thunderstorms possible
today...no severe storms.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Elongated upper trough axis extends
from Ontario/Quebec back into the upper Midwest. Weakish surface
low analyzed over southwest Wisconsin...coincident with region of
strongest QG-forcing for ascent...with an Ill-defined surface
trough/warm front extending eastward into central lower Michigan.
Broad plume of better moisture stretches from the plains into the
Midwest/lower Great Lakes ahead of the low. A weak system
overall...but there are several pockets of showers across the
region and a few thunderstorms back through Wisconsin within a
small area of steeper mid level lapse rates/instability near the
surface low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...precip chances through tonight.

Upper trough deepens/closes off while migrating down through the
Midwest/mid Mississippi River Valley through tonight...with a
deepening surface low developing down into Kentucky/Tennessee by
Wednesday morning. Lower Michigan remains within a region of weak
but persistent QG-forcing for ascent through tonight. Meanwhile...weak
low level flow across lower Michigan...an inverted surface trough
stretching up through the state and lake breezes will lead to the
development of low level convergence axis stretching down through
interior lower Michigan. Combine all that with some modest
afternoon/evening instability to get things going (a few hundred
joules of MLCAPE per forecast soundings) and it has the earmark of
some instability driven showers (and maybe some thunder) bubbling
up this afternoon and persisting into tonight...and particularly
through the inland higher terrain. No severe weather anticipated
with any thunderstorms...given weak wind fields and very modest
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Cool and showery conditions continue...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern forecast: The main feature expected to continue control
weather across the Great Lakes region through the midweek timeframe
is closed upper level low pressure, which is progged to spin
overhead through Thursday before gradually shifting toward the
eastern seaboard. Several weak shortwaves are expected to pinwheel
around the parent low bringing several rounds of scattered showers
both Wednesday and Thursday. There may be a brief reprieve from the
rain chances during the first half of the upcoming holiday weekend
before additional rain chances arrive from the west.

Primary forecast challenges/concerns: Shower chances and below
normal temperatures.

A rather cool and damp pattern is expected to continue across
northern Michigan through at least the middle of the week with
several waves of showers expected to transit the area and high
temperatures averaging several degrees below normal. As was
mentioned yesterday morning, neither Wednesday nor Thursday is
expected to be a complete washout as the best precip chances are
likely to be tied closely to separate waves of energy rotating
around the southern periphery of aforementioned cutoff low aloft.
Definitely not the pattern for widespread appreciable rainfall, but
more so the expectation is for waves of showers to dot the map at
various times. With that said, there`s no way around that some
locations will do "better" than others with respect to QPF, but
certainly any rain is beneficial after a relative lack of precip
over the last couple of weeks.

High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday averaging several
degrees below normal ranging from the middle upper 50s to middle 60s
area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Diminishing shower trends are expected Friday into the first half of
the upcoming Memorial Day weekend as a weak bubble of high pressure
skims the region. Uncertainty increases Sunday through Monday as
guidance spread remains significant in terms of rain potential, but
it`s safe to say that the second half of the holiday weekend has the
potential to be more active than the first half. To what extent any
rainfall will hamper outdoor holiday plans/festivities remains to be
seen and is worth checking later outlooks as guidance comes into
better agreement. High temps expected to be near to a couple of
degrees above normal throughout the extended, varying from the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Shallow fog will impact the tip of the mitt areas including the
PLN terminal site through 9 am or so. Otherwise...VFR conditions
are anticipated today with showers developing late morning and
through the afternoon. Showers continue into tonight with CIGS
lowering to MVFR.

Winds will be light (under 10 knots) through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Relatively light winds/waves anticipated through midweek with no
marine headlines. Periodic showers will impact the marine areas
through Thursday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA


000
ACUS11 KWNS 230150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230150 COR
TXZ000-OKZ000-230415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Texas...Southwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230150Z - 230415Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
couple more hours across southwest Oklahoma and northwest to
north-central Texas. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be possible. Although weather watch issuance is not expected,
the area will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms with some severe, are located
from near the Childress, Texas area east-northeastward to the
vicinity of Lawton, Oklahoma. These storms are located along an
outflow boundary in which surface dewpoints to the south of the
boundary range from the upper 50s F in northwest Texas to the lower
60s F across south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas. This is
contributing to weak instability ahead of the boundary. In spite of
this, the Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer shear with
40 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with 700-500
mb lapse rates of around 7.5 C/km evident on the Amarillo 00Z
sounding, should be enough for storm rotation and isolated large
hail. The latest short-term model guidance suggests that this
convection will move east-southeastward across northwest Texas and
southern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours but weaken gradually
as instability decreases across the region later this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 34819793 34559962 34210013 33609990 32469859 32989743
34059704 34819793