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Fire Weather Outlooks


Wildland Fire Situation Reports - Updated Daily
National Report (pdf) SWCC Morning Intelligence Briefing Current Large Incidents
Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) - National maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS).  Also has maps of Keetch-Byram and Palmer drought indices.
MODIS Satellite Fire Detection - From USDA Forest Service (USFS) Remote Sensing Applications Center in cooperation with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Maryland, the National Interagency Fire Center, and the USFS Missoula Fire Sciences Lab.
Fire Danger and Potential Graphics from WFAS - Updated Each Evening

NFDRS Adjective Rating

NFDRS Forecast Adjective Rating

NFDRS Southwest Adjective Rating

NFDRS Forecast Southwest Adjective Rating

 Note:  Forecasts may not depict accurate fire danger between October and April.
Large Fire Potential Index 7 day forecast
* The experimental fire potential index map uses satellite derived Relative Greenness, an NFDRS fuel model map (both 1 km resolution), and an interpolated 10-hour timelag map as inputs to weight the relative influence of live and dead vegetation to fire potential. The scale ranges from 0 (low) to 100 (high).
Dead Fuel Moisture - Updated Each Evening
10 hour 1/4 to 1 inch  
100 hour 1 to 3 inches  
1000 hour greater then 3 inches  
Southwest Growing Season Index (WFAS-MAPS NIFC)  
Graphical (Phenology Monitoring System) >50 suggests green up  
AVHRR NDVI Greeness- Three vegetation greenness maps are derived weekly from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data observed by AVHRR satellites and provided by the EROS Data Center (EDC), U.S. Geological Survey. These maps are composited weekly and have 1.1-kilometer (0.6 mile) spatial resolution.
Visual Greeness - vegetation greeness compared to a very green reference such as an alfalfa field or a golf course. The resulting image is similar to what you would expect to see from the air. Normally dry areas will never show as green as normally wetter areas.
Relative Greeness -  shows how green the vegetation is compared to how green it has been historically (1989-2003). Because each pixel is normalized to its own historical range, all areas (dry to wet) can appear fully green at some time during the growing season.
Departure from  Average -  shows how green each pixel is compared to its average greenness for the current week of the year based on 1989-2003 data.
Four Panel Greeness - portrays a four panel image of the previous graphics.
Live Shrub Fuel Moisture -  an estimate of live shrub moisture contents and will give best estimates in plant communities that are dominated by shrubs. The base moisture content range for each pixel has been determined using maximum and minimum NDVI images for the historical period dating back through 1989. For example, areas with historically low minimum and maximum NDVI generally correspond to arid communities and yield minimum calculated moisture contents as low as 50% on a dry weight basis. Maximum moisture content in the most arid sites will be at least 100% but may range higher. Very moist sites may range from a minimum of 90% to a maximum of 250%. A NDVI map server is linked on the webpage and contains archived data. 
SWA Departure from Average -  image from The Wildland Fire Assessment System depicting departure from average greenness for the current week of the year based on 1989-2003 data.
Live Fuel Moisture- Lower live fuel moisture values tend to lead to more fire behavior and fuel consumption.
National Map Database
New Mexico Database
Arizona Database
Energy Release Component (ERC)- The Energy Release Component is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The computation falls out of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). Daily variations in ERC are due to changes in moisture content of the various fuels present, both live and dead. Since this number represents the potential "heat release" per unit area in the flaming zone, it can provide guidance to several important fire activities. It may also be considered a composite fuel moisture value as it reflects the contribution that all live and dead fuels have to potential fire intensity. The ERC is a cumulative or "build-up" type of index. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC values get higher thus providing a good reflection of drought conditions. The scale is open-ended or unlimited and, as with other NFDRS components, is relative. Conditions producing an ERC value of 24 represent a potential heat release twice that of conditions resulting in an ERC value of 12. ERC is very comparable to the Build Up Index computed from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS).
Southwest Region

Soil Moisture- Soil moisture is a good proxy for determining near ground level fuel dryness. Especially where and when fuel dryness data does not exist.

NASA SPoRT hosts land information system (LIS) data. Relative soil moisture (RSM) 0 to 10 cm data has correlated fairly well with large fire growth, especially values below 25% in open-grassland fuel environments and below 35% closed canopy-forested mountain environments. 

Southwest area LIS graphic 

University of Washington hosts an experimental surface water monitor page. This includes graphics of snow water equivalent, soil moisture, total moisture storage and cumulative runoff. The drier soil moisture areas (brown, orange and red) correlate fairly well to higher wildland fire activity and drought conditions (short and long term). National graphic